A Reality Check on the Blockbuster Trade between the Warriors and Pacers

by Atma Brother ONE on Jan 20, 2007 3:03 AM PST in Science

You've seen the hype, but now it's time for a reality check on the 8 player deal that the Warriors and Pacers concocted. Let's be clear, this was a blockbuster deal not because of the actual player personnel exchanged, but because of the number of players and enormous salaries exchanged. There are no big game changers and no NBA stars involved in this deal. Aside from Troy Murphy who will now be able to collect double-doubles in the Leastern Conference, none of the players in this trade will probably ever make an All Star team. No balance of power has been shifted in either conference.

The Warriors are definitely better after this trade, but they needed to get a whole lot better just to continue to compete in the West for the last playoff spot. This move does not guarantee the Warriors a trip to the playoffs for the first time in 12 years. Let's hope they aren't finished dealing because they are still very far from being a legitimate force in the Western Conference.

The Pacers are definitely worse talent-wise and salary cap-wise after this trade. It's a real head-scratcher why they made this deal. It will be absolutely shocking if Jermaine O'Neal is still a Pacer this time next season. The Pacers have unintentionally just started a rebuilding era, which could be very long and painful with Murphy and Dunleavy's contracts on the books for the next 4 seasons. Thank god that's their problem and not ours anymore.

Since, we're all in that golden state of mind, here's a dose of reality on all of the players involved in the deal:

New Warriors

Al Harrington (Age: 26, Height: 6-9, Weight: 245)

Thanks for leaving the mohawk in Indy, Al!

Career Stats | Key Stats:

18.6ppg in 2005-06 season with the Hawks.
45.8% 3pt this season with the Pacers.
5.8 rebounds per game over his career.
45.8% FG this season.
1.4 assists : 2.5 turnovers a game this year (ouch!).
Less than 1 steal and 0.5 blocks a game this season.

Chris Mullin really likes this guy. No he really, really, really likes this guy. He spent the whole summer chasing after him like he was Kevin Garnett or Yao Ming:

Let's hope Mullin knows something that no one else in the entire hoops universe knows about Al Harrington.

Baby Al came into this league straight out of high school and has blossomed into a pretty solid pro. Nothing more, nothing less. Mullin and Nellie are probably expecting him to take his game to new heights playing Nellieball. Can Harrington take his game to the next level here in the Bay? He seems hungry and has the desire to be an All Star. Al's numbers should improve playing the faster paced offense that Nellie preaches compared to the slow grind of Pacer coach Rick Carlisle's philosophy.

Harrington obviously has nice size, but you really have to wonder why he's such a mediocre rebounder, collecting only 6-7 boards a night playing big minutes. It's not like the Warriors are a strong rebounding team and giving up Troy Murphy and Ike Diogu doesn't help at all. If Al's going to play the 4 spot for Nellie, he's going to need to reach career highs in this facet of his game or else the Warriors are doomed.

Stephen Jackson (Age 28, Height: 6-8, Weight: 218)

The gap in Jax's front row of teeth is more stylish than Michael Strahan's!

Career Stats | Key Stats:

18.7 ppg just 2 seasons back with the Pacers.
41.9% FG for his career.
The past 3 seasons, he's gotten to the free throw line about 4 times a game.

Jax doesn't exactly have a squeaky clean record which we can't condone, but everyone deserves a second chance and he seems eager for a fresh start. Hopefully, good guys like Baron Davis and Jason Richardson have a nice influence on him off the court and most importantly keep him out of court. Here's hoping Jackson can turn things around. If not, this whole trade could be a big disaster for the Warriors.

On the court, Jax is the best defender in this trade and can give scoring 2 guards some trouble with his length. He's given Jason Richardson some serious trouble in the past. Let's hope he pushes JRich in practice that much harder and becomes an impact defender for this ballclub. As long as Jax brings the D and toughness, the Warriors won't need him to be a big time scorer to be a successful cog in Nellieball. He could potentially be the biggest impact player of this trade if he can develop a defensive stopper role.

Sarunas Jasikevicius (Age 29, Height: 6-4, Weight: 195)

Sarunas just looks like an intimidating athlete- DO NOT mess with him!

Career Stats | Key Stats:

A career 91.4% shooter from the free throw line.
A career 40.2% shooter from 3pt land.
3.0 assists per game in under 20 minutes a game over his career.

If you've watched the Warriors for the past two or three seasons one of the most frustrating things about this squad is that free throws aren't free. Sarunas should be able to help the team greatly in this department especially near the end of games. Don't underestimate how valuable this skill is in closing out close games.

It'll be interesting to see if Sarunas can help lighten BD's minutes for the rest of this season. He's been somewhat of a disappointment in Indiana, but there's no way a guy named Sarunas won't take his career to the next level under Nellie. Another thing to look for is whether Sarunas can provide Nellie with a much-needed shooter to roll off screens. Sarunas could be a steal for the Dubs if he can spot Baron Davis some minutes and knock down some jumpers.

Josh Powell (Age 24, Height: 6-9, Weight: 225)

Trivia Question: Who was the last Warrior to sport #21?

Career Stats | Key Stats:

Averaging more fouls than points, blocks, steals, and assists this season.
Played in 7 games this season.

Is Powell just a throw in to make the numbers work out in this trade? Maybe, but who thought Matt Barnes and Kelenna Azubuike would play so many big minutes for Nellie this season? Here's hoping for another great surprise.

* Photos by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images

New Pacers

Troy Murphy (Age 26, Height: 6-11, Weight: 245)
Career Stats | Key Stats:

3 double-doubles in 6 seasons in the league.
A career 43.2% shooter from the field.
15.4 ppg and 10.8 rpg in 2004-2005.
Never averaged a block per game or steal per game in any of his NBA seasons.

Make no mistake the best proven rebounder in this trade is TMurph by a wide margin. The Warriors were already weak in this area personnel-wise and this trade does nothing to help improve this glaring hole on the team. He will be missed for his steady work on the glass.

Murph's game can be summed up as a low percentage scorer who gives up a high percentage of points on the defensive end. Not exactly a formula for success. Mostly because of his complete lack of lateral quickness, Murphy is an awful defender. However, Murph should get back to his double digit rebound form with the Pacers. It'll be interesting to see how he plays off O'Neal. His career could reach new heights playing with someone who can make up for his offensive limitations and defensive mistakes.

Murphy was a major reason for the Warriors' Charmin Soft interior defense.

Mike Dunleavy (Age 26, Height: 6-9, Weight: 230)
Career Stats | Key Stats:

Career high in scoring was 13.4 ppg in 2004-2005 which was supposed to be an off-season for him.
40.6% FG and 28.5% 3pt with tons of open looks in Monty's motion offense during the 2005-2006 season.
Never averaged 6 boards a game in a season.
0.8 steals per game and 0.3 blocks per game for his career.

Despite the expectations and his own self-promotion, Dunleavy never amounted to much with the Warriors over his 4 year stay. Let's examine the mythological and mostly silly hype:

Mythleavy #1: Dunleavy is so versatile. He can play 4 positions and he's fundamentally sound.
This has to be the biggest mistake in assessing Dunleavy. Playing him at the point for long stretches is a disaster because he brings the ball up very slowly, can't take anyone off the dribble, and gets jammed very easily. Dunleavy at the 2 guard is fine if you don't mind having a shooting guard who can't shoot or is the worst scoring player at the 2 spot in the league. Yup, didn't think so. There were tons of questions about Dunleavy playing the power forward spot at the beginning of the season and Nellie quickly found out the answer to all of the questions was simply no. Dunleavy is a small forward, not some jack of all trades.

For a player who's supposedly fundamentally sound he misses a ton of wide open jumpers, can't hit jumpers from the corners, misses a lot of easy layups, can't layup with his left hand on the left side of the basket, can't beat anyone off the dribble, travels way too much, grabs very few rebounds for the minutes he plays, and has poor instincts when playing man defense. A raw player? Of course not, but calling him fundamentally sound doesn't align with his play in the NBA.

Mythleavy #2: He has such a high hoops IQ.
Smart basketball players do not make as many dumb turnovers, travels, and decisions as Dunleavy makes on any given night. He's not a dumb player, but calling him smart is unwarranted and an undeserved complement that has more to do with his last name than anything he's actually done on the NBA level. On his radio show the other week, Warrior Coach Don Nelson really questioned his hoops IQ as well.

Mythleavy #3: Dunleavy's a great "glue guy" and a "great locker room guy".
I'll pass the mic to Marcus Thompson of the Contra Costa Times for this one:

He [Mike Dunleavy] did accept responsibility for his poor play at the end of last year. But he is one of those guys who, at least outwardly, blames everyone else. But I don't think I've heard him called a "glue guy" and a "great locker room guy." Whoever says that, clearly does not know Dunleavy. He's quiet and keeps to himself a lot. He does openly criticize his teammates and he's had problems with at least two coaches and how they use him (Musselman and Montgomery). He's not a cancer, per se, but he's not a "glue guy. -- Marcus Thompson 1/02/07

Mythleavy #4: He's a great shooter.
To Coach Mike Montgomery's credit he got Dunleavy a TON of wide open jumpers with his offensive gameplan for two straight seasons. What happened? Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaiiiiiiirrrrr ball! CLANK! It wasn't pretty. Dunleavy's shooting form looks fine, but for some reason he's been a poor shooter. Is it a fear of not coming through in the clutch (not that the Warriors have had playoff type pressure the past 12 years)? Is it a lack of concentration? Who knows. All we know is that for a guy who got so many open shots his shooting percentages were completely unacceptable.

Mythleavy #5: Dunleavy's a great passer.
To say he's a "great" passer is a huge error. Dunleavy's an average passer, partly because he reacts slowly, telegraphs his passes, and for every good pass he makes throws a lazy pass that results in an unforced turnover. Two key things to remember: 1) a "great" passer doesn't have a career 2.5 assist to 1.6 turnover ratio and 2) a "great" passer's career high in assists for a season isn't 3.0. Again, not a horrible passer, just average.

A great book on Mike Dunleavy's game.

Ike Diogu (Age 23, Height: 6-8, Weight: 255)
Career Stats | Key Stats:

Averages about a point every 2 minutes.
About an 80% shooter from the charity stripe.
Missed over a month this season with an ankle sprain.

There's a lot to like about Ike. He's a gifted low post scorer who also has some nice range of his jumper. Additionally, Ike's a capable weakside shot blocker and rebounder. Don't be surprised if Ike does some big things in 3 or 4 years, despite being an undersized and not too explosive power forward. The problem is Nellie doesn't have 3 or 4 years. Even if Ike does blow up in the future, it's worth taking this risk to get rid of Murphy and Dunleavy's excessive contracts. You have to give up something to get something in return and the Warriors luckily gave up the least promising of their young talents. There's very few in Warriors Nation who'd rather have Ike over combo guard Monta Ellis or center Andris Biedrins.

Ike's out of Nellie's Doghouse!

Keith McLeod (Age 27, Height: 6-2, Weight: 190)
Career Stats | Key Stats:

88.7% for the free throw line this season.
14:35 minutes in 26 games this season.

McLeod's stay with the Warriors was very short lived. If you blinked for more than a second, you probably never even saw him on the court in a Warriors jersey. Still, he's a capable backup point guard and a nice piece to bring off the bench. Nothing spectacular, but a fairly steady presence.

What are your reality checks for the trade?

Don't sleep on the previous GSoM coverage of this 8 player deal:

0 recs | Comment 27 comments

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Comments

Definately agree

That Big Al needs to step up the Rebounding. We really don't have a great rebounder now...Biedrins is ok. We'll miss Murph in that department.

Trivia Question Answer.....Danny Fortson!

(Good thing a friend of mine got me a Golden State Warriors 06-07 Media Guide! Mwahahahahah.)

I'm too tired ot say anything else of worth. I think this was a more honest trade review, and liked it much more than the hype. Thank you, THAnk YOu, THANK YOU for posting this.

by Zorgon on Jan 20, 2007 3:13 AM PST 0 recs

Al's pulled down 18

in a game earlier in the season. He's definitely capable of pulling double figure rebounds.

by eshock on Jan 20, 2007 1:58 PM PST up 0 recs

Harrington capable?

Dunleavy once pulled down 20 boards in a game, but I wouldn't accuse him of being a good rebounder, or even suggest that he's capable of doing that regularly because he did it once. Dun and Harrington have pulled down boards at a similar rate this season, and neither rate is terribly good. Neither Dun nor Harrington have ever shown that they'll be anything better than 'adequate' in this regard and both have had a while to lend to that opinion.

by jae on Jan 20, 2007 3:10 PM PST up 0 recs

gobears

trivia answer - sean lampley

i love my golden bears ;)

by nativeson on Jan 20, 2007 4:13 AM PST 0 recs

I see it this way.

Upgraded the starting 5
Upgraded at Power Forward, a glaring need.
Upgraded the bench
Improved the salary situation

And not often mentioned, but I think this trade treated the Pacers fairly. It was a good trade for both teams. That lends itself to future deals, if teams don't think you'll fleece them, they are more willing to deal.

by Gain on 10 on Jan 20, 2007 7:04 AM PST 0 recs

go warriors

trivia question: Chris Taft

i think thats right

whatever happened to him?

and someone finally agrees with me about als mohawk, it was pretty dumb, everyone i talked to was like "its stylish"

no it wasnt

sarunas has wierd eyes, maybe he has better sight, which leads to sharp shooting

i hope

by badnamedwarriorfan on Jan 20, 2007 9:03 AM PST 0 recs

Chris Taft

I think your right, he was my first thought. Sorry Zorgon.

by Psion on Jan 20, 2007 11:53 AM PST up 0 recs

forgot one thing

according to kiki on espn (great name) he said diogu is much closer to 6-7 than 6-8, just a correction

also what number is stephen jackson going to wear?

and is josh powell going to play? he looks like a pretty good athlete, maybe he can fit in with nellies system, a 6-9 guy that can run

by badnamedwarriorfan on Jan 20, 2007 9:06 AM PST 0 recs

i'd say 6'6

is closer to reality for Ike...
Sjax is going to wear #1

Let's Go Oakland! Gas, Brake, Dip.

by OaktownFunk on Jan 20, 2007 10:15 AM PST up 0 recs

Who knows?

I've posted this a few times, but I want to repeat it again.

You can't put too much weight in stats. For example, when Murphy was averaging a double-double, I thought it was simply for the reason that nobody else was trying to rebound. Were the Warriors good when he got those stats? Hell no.

And what about Dampier? His stat line was great before the trade. Did he tank when the cash was ponied up? No, his stats simply looked better when he was played the entire game and was surrounded by mediocrity.

I think we need to watch three or four games before we determine the true impact of the trade. Chemistry, hustle, and grit in the clutch are not on the stat sheet. Let's see if the new guys can bring that, because I don't think Murph and Dun did any of those things on a consistant basis.

by RonG on Jan 20, 2007 9:12 AM PST 0 recs

Yup.

I agree with you whole heartedly. Nice post.

If you take a look out of your windows, you can now see Dallas, TX. Quite the site, no?

by coma on Jan 20, 2007 10:09 AM PST up 0 recs

I like the looks of the new guys

Al and Jax look relaxed and confident, Sarunis looks like a sharpshooter . Powell has great hair, We've needed a guy with cornrows for a long time.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Jan 20, 2007 10:06 AM PST 0 recs

trivia question?

who was the last (guarunteed contract) Warrior to sport cornrows?

by dj fuzzylogic on Jan 20, 2007 10:59 AM PST up 0 recs

was i right?

was chris taft the last Warrior to wear 21?

by badnamedwarriorfan on Jan 20, 2007 1:31 PM PST up 0 recs

I think

it was Larry Hughes. But I can't tell in these black and white pics. Surprisingly, Spree never sported cornrows while on the Warriors. I think Hughes was the only one EVER to sport cornrows, although I didn't go back into the early 70s or earlier.

And darn it, it was Chris Taft! I couldn't see his number because he was in the back row! And guess who was blocking him? ADONAL! Thats right! How could he betray me so? Noooooooooooooo!!!!

by Zorgon on Jan 20, 2007 2:31 PM PST up 0 recs

Spree?

maybe?

by bradyk2 on Jan 20, 2007 11:15 AM PST 0 recs

I like the trade a lot

This article does a lot of justice, as it acknowledges strengths and weaknesses of all players involved.

To me, Dunleavy/Murphy were victims of Mullin's poor financial management, rather than poor play. If they had much deservedly smaller contracts, than they'd prove to be good players for their price points. But since Mullin handcuffed the organization to them at first, we had to jettison them.

All in all, I hope the trade benefits everybody, as that's what the best trades do.

-Crypt0naut

by Crypt0naut on Jan 20, 2007 11:17 AM PST 0 recs

Wild Guess...

...Larry Hughes for the trivia question? But in all seriousness thank you atma for making sure we all don't buy playoff tickets before the new warriors have played one game. We got better, but not that much. JR is still hurting, I still think Baron is going to be under alot of pressure because we do not have another reliable playmaker. But at least now we have some hope, which is all a warriors fan can ask for, other than a winning season or the playoffd

by FoyledAgain on Jan 20, 2007 11:19 AM PST 0 recs

neutral trade effect, if you aren't a sportswriter

Good analysis. I think it's fair to say that in terms of putting up wins on the board, we didn't give up much if anything and in terms of getting wins back, we also didn't get much. I think Dun will prove to be more valuable than people though, but Murphy less so. It's a pretty even deal, with the Pacers having a better chance of winning big if Ike turns good. However, he's more likely to be Clarence Weatherspoon than Charles Barkely. The risk isn't that huge for what we got back--a better salary structure and depth. Since we know we got that out of the deal and that's what it seems we were looking for, we've 'won' so long as one of the new Pacers doesn't become a star. But 'winning' this one is pretty modest. Both teams were pretty equal before and they swapped relatively equal contributions, all things considered.

by jae on Jan 20, 2007 12:52 PM PST 0 recs

More to the trade then stats & numbers ...

It was a good analysis of the trade about how we got players to play a up-tempo game and gave us a chance to dump the crazy contracts of Murphy & Dunleavy. But also, this trade happened because something had to be done. We weren't going anywhere with Dun & Murph. I know there were a few of you who might've been against the trade, but if this trade never happened, how do we know what the Warriors will be if it did happen? At least with the trade, we're gambling for some moves. Now we don't know if it will help us or hurt us but we will see shortly. But better to gamble to make something happen then to stay put with the same results and hope the Dun & Murph combo improves.

by AntiLaker on Jan 20, 2007 1:06 PM PST 0 recs

#21

I would have guessed Jason Caffey, but there have probably been other players who have worn that number.

by goldenstatefan on Jan 20, 2007 1:43 PM PST 0 recs

Well said!

I don't know where I read it but I think that this all was about both teams trading away their own problems. Besides that, if you can add some pieces that fit your style of play better, that's a bonus.

I loved the analysis of Dunleavy: all those ESPN, SI, guys should read that before they start throwing cliche after cliche.

And by the way, Mullin is starting to correct some of the mistakes he made in his first couple of seasons as GM.

by Jaime Novoa on Jan 20, 2007 2:06 PM PST 0 recs

since no one else commented on these

Aside from Troy Murphy who will now be able to collect double-doubles in the Leastern Conference, none of the players in this trade will probably ever make an All Star team.

There are now (and probably always will be) plenty of forwards from the "Leastern" conference making the AS team before TM

As for the trade, it's been digested well enough by many of us, but no one is including the fear of another Jackson incident or the fact that he could (possibly) be lost to us after his Feb court date and that would have more impact on assessing this trade than any surprise Ike showing

by hardcore on Jan 20, 2007 3:03 PM PST 0 recs

the reality is

This is a net zero trade. You are losing talent but gaining salary cap space to sign Biedrins & Ellis.

They are getting an overrated SF in Harrington who Nelson will play out of position. I have no idea why Mullin was drooling over the guy over the summer.

Stephen Jackson is a malcontent and quite frankly an idiot. He is not good for your locker room and will probably start at the 3 and take away minutes from Pietrus.

Sarunas is an average guard. Nothing less, nothing more. Powell is a throw in.

Murphy is a power forward who (via his perimeter game) will open up the middle for Jermaine O'Neal. Dunleavy was treated like garbage by Nelson and who knows...maybe Carlisle will use him properly at the 3. And Diogu is the reason the Warriors couldn't make the Artest deal last season.

Same old, same old. This is simply Mullin appeasing Don Nelson. Nelson is crazy and honestly the game has passed him by.

by clem on Jan 20, 2007 7:10 PM PST 0 recs

Numbers

Chris Taft was the last guy to wear #21, and Danny Fortson before him.

Larry Hughes was actually #20 on the Warriors and #21 when he was a Sixer.

by gswrico on Jan 20, 2007 7:21 PM PST 0 recs

Artwork

By the way, love the artwork on these guys, they have some serious tats. I think Sarunas needs a SARUNAS #2 tattoo on him, because he is the 2nd coming of our old Sarunas.

by gswrico on Jan 20, 2007 7:21 PM PST 0 recs

Great break-down!!!

Good, honest points. Especially regarding Dunleavy. I think the Warriors got better... but time will tell how much. This team is a little/lot tougher, deeper and I think we can make the playoffs. More trades? I wouldn't be surprised. But I think this team can play... and I'm glad to see those contracts go!

by Cocomotion on Jan 20, 2007 9:40 PM PST 0 recs