GSoM 2k7-2k8 NBA Preview: Western Conference Power Picks

Inside the top 3 and then 4-6, you can't really go wrong.

Of each tier, Dallas is the weakest in the top 3 and Denver is the weakest in the second 3 IMO.

BigD has the psychological issues, lack of legit PG,  not much youth on the wings after Howard (Stack, Jones, Hassel, George?). Denver has an dominating but injury prone front court, no perimeter defense and no bench.

Of the "playoff fringe" teams, LAL, NOK, MEM, and GS, I'm gonna have to reassess the chances...

NOK is the best of the bunch now, because Chris Paul is THAT good and they rebound remarkably well. Paul rebounds well for a small PG, and Chandler and West own the glass. Assuming Peja and Mopete can shoot even decently, their offense will be good enough because...they play defense. Chandler is an elite shotblocker now, Paul gets steals, and MoPete and Rasual Butler give them some solid wing defenders. Julian Wright is a hyperathletic Boris Diaw that might be a wildcard.
I like New Orleans of this group the best because they're pretty balanced. They nearly hung with us despite massive injuries.

Memphis slides back a bit in my book because this preseason they've shown a complete inability to play defense. Their talent level is enough to get them the playoff spot, but Iavaroni doesn't seem to have sold the kids on playing both ends of the court. Gasol, my main man, got hurt, Milcic is finishing like Troy Murphy, and for some reason they insist on starting Damon Stoudamire (probably showcasing him). Who will defend on the perimeter? Whats their scheme?

On paper they should play like the Spurs and funnel guys toward the middle where Milcic and Gasol can erase everything, but no one is even trying. Maybe they are a year away mentally.

Don Nelson is proving his worth because we ARE playing defense...or well...we should be. The scheme is in place and with a ton of returning players, the necessary cohesion is there. Our offense will be streaky and Baron-dependent, duh, but there's no excuse not to defend up and down the lineup. All you need is athleticism (check) and effort (please!).

The Lakers have interesting pieces that are all hurt or don't fit. Mitch Kupcheck, please shoot urself.

Of "the rest", Seattle has the most talent and depth, so i want to put them as the best of the bench...but they don't defend or don't use their defensive players very well. Watson/Durant/Green/Thomas/Collison is their best defensive group but they're starting Ridnour, Sczcerbiak, and Wilcox instead. Green and Durant are also banged up. I like the squad and they can probably make a trade relatively easily since they have awesome pieces (triple PGs, 5 picks in 3 years, Kurt Thomas' expiring, and lots of big bodies).

I would have picked Portland with Oden because of the defensive value of Aldridge/ODen inside, but well, you know. Now Roy has heel problems too, Aldridge might be frail...ugh. Don't sneeze too hard, you might explode if you're in portland.

I give up, I can't pick a best team out of this bottom group.

1. Houston (63 wins)
First off, this team was better than it played in the playoffs, it had a point differential of a 57 game win team.  Scola relaces Juwan Howard, a huge improvement.  Steve Francis, Bonzi Wells and Mike James replace Alston, Head and John Lucas Jr. Adleman replaces Jeff Van Gundy.  Ming missed 30 games last season.  It all adds up to a ton of wins.  Do they go all the way in the play-offs?  Who knows?  That's a long way off.  

2. San Antonio (63 Wins)
They too played better than their regular season record, but that was more evident because they aced their way through the playoffs.  Udoka was a key acquisition because it addressed their one cause of concern - Bruce Bowan's age.  Also Ginolbli only averaged 27 minutes a game and he can slide over to take more minutes to compensate for the aging Finley and Barry.  Likewise, Oberto and Elson can take more of old man Horry's minutes.  And Duncan remains an MVP.  They're legitimite repeat possabilities.

3.  Phoenix (62 wins)
The fact that they have only a 7-man rotation is problematic.  But otherwise, Grant Hill, who can run the team when Nash is out of the game, replacing James Jones is huge.  Stoudemire, still a young guy, may be better another year past microfracture injury.  Nash refues to age.  If they addded PJ Brown with their MLE, I would like their championship chances better.  And they should do so, as the Nash window will likely close soon.

4.  Dallas (60 wins)
Still a terrific team, but the West is tough.  Adding Eddie Jones and Trent Hassel helps.

5. Utah (48 wins)
They'll have a tough time getting back to the conference finals, as the competion is severe.  However, if Kirilenko finds his mojo and Ronnie Brewer is the answer at shooting guard, their chances improve.

6. Denver (46 wins)
Not ready to seriously compete in this conference.  Iverson mostly takes shots away from Anthony, Camby is a walking injury risk, Kenyon Martin is coming back from his SECOND microfracture surgery, JR Smith is a headcase and their bench stinks.  But they're well coached with too much talent not to be competitive.

7. New Orleans (41 wins)
West and Paul missed a lot of games and Mo Peterson and Stojakovic will improve the wings.  Improving from 36 to 41 wins is well within reason.

8. Warriors (40 wins)
With the team as is, will try to repeat last year's scenario of eeking their way into the playoffs.

9. Lakers (40 wins)
The Kobe situtation causes concern.

10. Clippers (34 wins)
Could actually sneak into the playoffs, if they could hold on and Brand deosn't return much past mid-season.  I love the low-budget acquisitions of Patterson and Knight.  Still, they're the Clippers, gravity forces them into the lottery.

11. Memphis (29 wins)
Curious how their four-man PG rotation turns out - Conley Jr., Navarro, Lowry and Stoudmire.  Also, is Rudy Gay the real deal?  Good challenge for their rookie coach.

12.  Sacramento (28 wins)
Eric Mussleman got more credit for their downfall then he deserved, as Reggie Theus is about to find out.

13.  Portland (25 wins)
Odds are good that their win forecast will greatly improve by next season.

14. Seattle (24 wins)
You take a 32 win team, take away their two stars, add a 19 year old rookie, and what does that leave you?  This.

15.  Minnesota (18 wins)
Even horrible teams often get more than 18 wins, but then again....

60 wins - I think the Suns, Spurs, and Mavs have all realized that regular season wins don't mean much. I expect only one of those teams to get 60 wins... And the 'middle-tier' teams will be winning more games. However, come play-off time... it'll be the Suns, Spurs, and Mavs (unless they play the Dubs in the first round again) that will be making all the noise.

I think the Lakers are out... even if Kobe stays on the team the whole season. They are a complete mess. I see the Warriors (44 wins) becoming the 7th seed, and Memphis and New Orleans duking it out for the 8th seed....

Go Dubs!