FanPost

Adjusted +/- Player Ratings

This is from 82 Games.

Most of you probably know plus/minus player ratings.  That is simply the team's performance when a player is on the floor vs. the team's performance when that player is off the floor.  Usually a team is 10 points worse (per 40 minutes) when a superstar is off the floor, as opposed to 10 points better when a terrible player does not play.  Everybody else is somewhere in between.

But there are flaws to that system of evaluating players.  Namely, no two players are ever playing with and against the same players.  So, it's a different context or playing field for every player.

But, what if that context was determined?  I.E. each player that any one player plays with and against is rated.  So, if Baron Davis is playing with a bunch of crummy players against a really good team, his impact on the team will be judged in that context, as opposed to when he is playing with good players against a really bad team. That seems to be a nightmare of a task to figure out, but that is exactly what the  masochists at 82 Games have done.

The result theoretically shows the impact of every player on his team regardless of his opponents and his teammates.  The beauty of this rating is that it imcompasses all aspects of play - offense and defense.

Here are the top 20 players according to this system.  While the exact rankings may be somewhat surprising, the group of players seems to be intuitively correct.  The only surprises are Rondo, Anthony Parker and McDyess.  Rondo and Parker have top defensive reputations and McDyess used to be a dominating player who has apparently recovered from injuries more than most people have given him credit.

As you see, Baron is 7th, between Kobe and Dwayne Wade.

Top 20 Players for 2006-2007 Season
    Adjusted +/-
(per 40 min)           2006-07  

  1. Garnett, Kevin     12.35    
  2. James, LeBron     12.01    
  3. Duncan, Tim     10.89    
  4. Arenas, Gilbert     8.80    
  5. Kidd, Jason     8.74    
  6. Bryant, Kobe     8.70    
  7. Davis, Baron     7.72    
  8. Wade, Dwayne     7.56    
  9. Pierce, Paul     7.24    
 10. Ginobili, Manu     6.77    
 11. Nowitzki, Dirk     6.45    
 12. Brand, Elton     6.30    
 13. Artest, Ron     6.25    
 14. Parker, Anthony     6.13    
 15. Nash, Steve     6.04    
 16. Rondo, Rajon     5.59    
 17. Deng, Luol     5.58    
 18. Billups, Chauncey     5.42    
 19. Redd, Michael     5.42    
 20. McDyess, Antonio     5.07    

Here's the link, which also rates all of the other players.

http://www.82games.com/ilardi1.htm

Notice, the Warriors regular rotation featured four above average players (Davis, Biedrins, Jackson and Richardson) two average players (Barnes and Ellis) and two below average players (Harrington and Pietrus, whose detractors will delight in his horrible ranking).  Not only does the Warrior's player ratings seem to intuitively jive with the opinions of those of us who followed them closely, but it substaniates their outstanding season ending play when they were all healthy.

Also, notice a lot of surprises with player ratings as you go down the list, Tony Parker, Jefferson, Stoudemire, Carmello Anthony, etc..

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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