Predictions and Evaluations for 20 games

by kenntoe on Nov 15, 2007 11:07 PM PST Comment 21 comments

Nelson and Co. recently said to come back and evaluate this team after 20 games. Well if the first 20 are anything like the first 6 then we're in for a long season. Here is a schedule for the first 20 games:

October
Oct 30 vs UTA L 96 - 117

November
Nov 2 @ LAC L 114 - 120
Nov 3 @ UTA L 110 - 133
Nov 6 vs CLE L 104 - 108
Nov 8 vs DAL L 115 - 120
Nov 14 vs DET L 111 - 104
Nov 16 vs LAC 7:30pm
Nov 18 @ TOR 10:00am
Nov 20 @ NYK 4:30pm
Nov 21 @ BOS 4:30pm
Nov 23 @ WAS 4:00pm
Nov 24 @ PHI 4:00pm
Nov 26 vs PHX 7:30pm
Nov 28 @ SAC 7:00pm
Nov 29 vs HOU 7:30pm

December
Dec 2 @ SEA 6:00pm
Dec 3 vs ORL 7:30pm
Dec 5 vs MIL 7:30pm
Dec 7 vs MIA 7:30pm
Dec 9 @ LAL 6:30pm

My prediction? 3-12 by the end of November with our wins coming against the Clips (at home), Philadelphia (Road), and the Kings (road). After 20 games, 4-16 with our only win coming against Seattle.

I got this from Marcus Thompson's blog:

November 15, 2007

0-for-November?

I still can't believe they lost that game. Since they are in the business of giving away games, you can't help but wonder if they are going to win a game this month. Check out their remaining games -- much tougher opponents than Detroit down two starters:

Clippers - they are a bad match-up, big, physical and they make free throws
@Raptors - they will need this game to salvage their homestand
@Knicks - also big and physical downlow
@Celtics - don't even think about it
@Wizards - bad defense is the cure for the Wiz struggling offense
@76ers - the Warriors will be 0-11 at this point and reeling
Suns - they usually play well at home against Phoenix, but do they have enough to keep up
@Kings - Sacramento is terrible, so they'll be looking forward to beating a rival
Rockets - Maybe McGrady will still be out

So, which one do they win? Maybe they get the Knicks game. Maybe. They could get Washington. But can you really bank on the Warriors winning a road game under pressure? They won 12 road games last year. They aren't exactly Road Warriors.
But then, the home foes are tough, too.
Will they go 0-for-November? That's not possible, right? I'm not too sure anymore.

http://www.cctextra.com/blogs/hoopjunkie/

Looks like he's not so optimistic either. As our current record stands, we'd have to go 42-36 just to get to .500. A .500 win % will NOT get you into the playoffs. We'd have to go more like 45-37. That's better than last year's club which was arguably better. We'd have to go 45-31 the rest of the way, 14 games over .500. To all the people saying "It's only 6 games, there's 76 games left", well history and reality shows us it is already too late.

How can this team win more games when the starters are logging 40+ minutes a game? When we have a 7 man rotation? When we have 4 Small Forwards on the court? When we allow our opponents to have career nights against us each game?

"We Believe"

Ha.

Start thinking of possible destinations for Baron now guys, it'll make for a more interesting debate on this site. When's the draft again?

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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Comments

i wouldnt be surprised

if we went on a miraculous 4 game win streak or something and we'd be right back into it...

then a midseason trade to get rid of ellis and/or pietrus outta here and get a solid backup pg or defensive SF will rejuvinate this team... problem is at best were prolly an 8th seed, and thatll take alot of work.

Itd be nice to convince those guys over at seattle to take barons hefty contract for a draft pick or 2 in return :)

by NinerWarrior on Nov 15, 2007 3:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Glass half-empty

... Or, "Kenntoe, Being Kenntoe..." ;-)

I generally align myself with the cynics on this board, but I think you and MT are being a tad pessimistic. The Warriors, as most of us suspected, are about a .500 team, capable of losing to anyone when cold, or beating anyone when hot. Since that upcoming schedule isn't unusually difficult, you have to figure they'll win about half of them. I don't like picking individual game-winners, because upsets happen, but things tend to even out.

7-7 in the next 14.
7-13 through 20.

I agree that the playoffs are looking unlikely, though, barring a major injury to a big star in the West. Too bad that "rumored" Kobe-to-Detroit deal didn't go through -- that would have put us right back in the discussion.

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 15, 2007 3:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I've tried

optimistic, it just hurts that much more when the Dubz disappoint me.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 15, 2007 4:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

it makes me smile

in hearing that i am now the "glass half empty" guy on GSOM. haha. If the warriors showed me something to indicate they can go on long winning streaks W/O going on equally long losing streaks, then i'd feel more confident.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 15, 2007 4:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

If this team starts to play better in the 2nd half

of their games and plays defense for 48 minutes a night, while making 70% from the line we'll be ok, if these things don't happen we're in trouble. But in looking at the schedule the next 9 in November aren't against anyone that necessarilly will blow us away outside of possibly Boston, but I think we'll even hang with them.
I predict 6 wins in the next 9 games possibly 7. I estimate a 3 wins out of 5 in the first part of December. I'm predicting 9-11 record after 20 games, almost at .500, but that is only if we start playing better and up to our potential every game.
Thoughful shots, breaking the zone(this means you Monta, Baron, Az take it to the hole) Higher percentage from the line atleast 70%. Playing defense, stay in front of your man and rotate in the zone to close out on 3 point shooters. Play the rookies a bit to give the starters some rest in the 2nd & 3rd quarters.
I know it's a lot to count on but I have faith in this team, we've got more talent than I've seen ever seen on a court in Oakland, and i've been watching for 20 years!!!!

It's all about the killer cross-over baby!

by warriorsfiend on Nov 15, 2007 4:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

i just alluded

to the fact that the W's will need to pretty much go 10-4 over their next 14 games. Here is my take on how they will pull it off:

Nov 16 vs LAC 7:30pm WIN
Nov 18 @ TOR 10:00am WIN
Nov 20 @ NYK 4:30pm WIN
Nov 21 @ BOS 4:30pm LOSS
Nov 23 @ WAS 4:00pm WIN
Nov 24 @ PHI 4:00pm WIN
Nov 26 vs PHX 7:30pm LOSS
Nov 28 @ SAC 7:00pm WIN
Nov 29 vs HOU 7:30pm LOSS

December
Dec 2 @ SEA 6:00pm WIN
Dec 3 vs ORL 7:30pm WIN
Dec 5 vs MIL 7:30pm WIN
Dec 7 vs MIA 7:30pm WIN
Dec 9 @ LAL 6:30pm LOSS

book it dano!

Let's Go Oakland! Gas, Brake, Dip.

by OaktownFunk on Nov 15, 2007 4:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Predictions

are just that.....predictions. Even weather forcasters sometimes are not correct in their predictions in spite of their almost exact modern tools even on their 5-day weather forecasting. Imagine a 20-game prediction?

Evaluation as defined by the American Evaluation Association: evaluation involves assessing the strengths and weaknesses of programs, policies, personnel, products, and organizations to improve their effectiveness. 'nuff said.

Calling Paul Wong!

Go Dubs!

by muritqua on Nov 15, 2007 4:24 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

eh...i prefer

the term Educated Guess

Let's Go Oakland! Gas, Brake, Dip.

by OaktownFunk on Nov 15, 2007 4:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

regardless

I think we can all agree that 20 games should be the measuring stick for this club. If they are not north of 7 wins at the 20 game mark I can almost assure you there will be changes. My guess...Monta, Harrington will be shopped. Not that they are the main culprits to the losing, but they are players that teams would probably be interested in. Maybe Barnes...maybe POB...maybe a pick or two. In an effort to get some quality size and defense.

Let's Go Oakland! Gas, Brake, Dip.

by OaktownFunk on Nov 15, 2007 4:41 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

moves

I don't care where Baron goes, or who goes with him, as long as Agent Zero ends up back in Oakland where he belongs.

by Don III on Nov 15, 2007 4:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

wow

where's the loyalty?

Baron is (and has been) the best player on the warriors and pretty much turned the franchise around. plus the Warriors got him for pretty much nothing (D. Davis and Claxton?)

Current Avgs:
Baron Arenas
25 pts 21 pts
9 ast 5 ast
4 reb 4 reb
A/T: 3/1 A/T: 5/4

They are both quick and have questionnable shot selections, but Baron is a smarter player and can post up most other PG's in the league, including gilbert arenas although Arenas is a better player in the clutch.
I'm not sayin Baron is better than Gilbert. But I'll take Baron in my team before i take Gilbert

Thats just me though

is latrell sprewell gonna have to choke a b*tch?

by Spree4Threee on Nov 15, 2007 9:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

not that it matters

Love em both, but Baron's time as a superstar seems pretty finite whereas Arenas' future seems wide-open to me. Baron ever score 50 points?

by Don III on Nov 15, 2007 10:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

yea

November 9th, 1994 against the Washington Bullets.

He did it again on October 31, 1997.

Also on December 1 and May 3 of 1999.

Who cares what the single game high for either player is?

If Baron had scored 60, it wouldn't prove he's the better player; if Gilbert had scored 70, it would be equally pointless.

Baron is a point guard. Arenas is not. That's the difference.

Barnett pointed out how subtle "point guard" skills can be; the crispness, timing, and precision of a pass, the mentality to know when to dish or when not to, the anticipation of defenses, the commitment to finding other guys. Baron isn't perfect, but he's light years ahead of Arenas.

24 > 23

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 15, 2007 10:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

baron's better exactly for those reasons

by airport son on Nov 16, 2007 8:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

nice

exxactly

is latrell sprewell gonna have to choke a b*tch?

by Spree4Threee on Nov 17, 2007 3:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

we better not lose harrington

hes having an excellent year, they jus need to get him the ball more

by NinerWarrior on Nov 15, 2007 5:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

seven & seven

still sounds somewhat optimistic over the next 14, and ya that leaves us playing catch up for a while yet to get to .500, but anyone who thought .500 was a realistic goal was seeing all milk and no glass ... blame Nelson all you want for not playing unproven and unready rookies more, for not being able to waive a magic wand and cure maladies, for not being able to replace SJax for seven (wasn't that foreseeable Mr. Mullin?), for not anticipating MP's sudden personal needs & departure, for not having another post player to insert, for not knocking down open shots ... Yup, let's blame Nelson - what of the GM? Who baked this cake?

Don't like small ball? give the cook some different ingredients to bake with

there were other options this summer; we chose youth movement

stop y'r complaining - and next time y'r at the Oracle try chanting "drive, drive, D R I V E !" or "A T T A C K the R I M" or some such nonsense ...

by hardcore on Nov 15, 2007 10:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

the funny thing

about that is, the warriors kind of went half way in both directions.

They stepped one foot into the youth movement, while still keeping the main veteran players. But with this mix of vets and young players, we're clearly not getting it done. SO either get veteran players with their attractive young players, or sell high on our vets to get picks and expirings now.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 15, 2007 10:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

agreed

they kept the vets from last year - enough to keep the memories of the playoff run alive anyway (they did jettison JR for a player to be ready later)

I don't think we went far enough in the youth movement once we lost out on KG and Darko (lots of GSoM'rs forget about Darko) but we were stuck at that point with Barnes and MP's offers ...

by hardcore on Nov 15, 2007 10:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

i wanted

Darko too. But we used his money on Cro, Barnes, Thud and MP. hhahahahha.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 15, 2007 11:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

darko

We wanted Darko, but it would have required a sign and trade with Orlando using the TPE.

Orlando screwed it up by wanting to sign Rashard to a ridiculously large contract, which necessitated renouncing rights to Darko. There went any sign-and-trade hopes. Memphis swooped in with pure cap space and signed him outright- once again illustrating how the TPE is an asset, but not nearly liquid enough. An expiring might have been more useful (though not necessarily in this case).

Darko's playing well this year, he would have been very helpful as a PF/C off the bench that rebounds and blocks shots at a high level.

24 > 23

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 16, 2007 10:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs