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Mini-Diary: Whither POB?

Hey folks,

I am a long-distance dubs fan w/o cable or NBA audio, so I follow the games via GSOM and the ESPN Gamecast.  Couldn't figure the answer to this question, though, from those various sources:

What happened to POB tonight?  Why no PT?

As long as I am here, here's another question for the crew: how are we going to manage all the talent we have this year?  We have Jax/Barnes/Pietrus with a lot of overlap in playing style, and we've got these kids that are going to have a hard time cracking the lineup (Wright/Bellinelli/Kosta), we've got POB, and then we've got our regulars (Biedrins, Davis, Ellis, Harrington).  Are we on our way to some serious issues of discontentment?  Or, can Nellie keep seven established players happy while still growing our youth movement?

All that said, I'm excited about our resurgence.  Go dubs!

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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POB
POB is fine, there has been no mention of injury. In truth, he probably never would have gotten many minutes regardless, but Croshere's injury and lack of practice meant Nellie had little choice but to slide POB/Wright in there.

Nellie said (sorry, forgot which article), that he'd prefer to go with the veteran early on, and this is just him carrying out that plan now that he can.

As for the larger question of managing talent...hard to say since injuries/absences always wreck ur plans, but it's gonna be more of the same.

Baron, Azubuike, Jack, Al, and Biedrins will start.

Ellis will be the first guard off the bench; Cro will be the first big off the bench; if we ever get Barnes/Pietrus back together I expect one of them to get burn.

What I am afraid of is Nellie using Pietrus as a backup PF and Cro as the backup C, squeezing POB/Wright out of the equation entirely....but that seems like something Nellie's' gonna do.

It will be an interesting situation: we will rejoice at this problem when we have a situation as we did early one with Barnes/Pietrus/Jack out for various reasons; but when we're winning it will be difficult to keep everyone happy without stifling the growth and potential rewards of our youth.

If Cro plays like this I don't really have any problem with him being used.

Overall, all the players we have could provide all the parts we need (for example, Ellis might unexpectedly turn in good PG performances),...but they might not.

24 > 23

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 18, 2007 12:53 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

nvevermind
read the sched wrong

24 > 23

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 18, 2007 12:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

well said
we have a tension on our team, overloaded with talent, filled with capricious souls.  will nellie find the right balance, using his critical and nurturing sides to keep the team engaged, cohesive, and healthy?

this is good drama - you gotta love the nba ...

by OaktownWarrior on Nov 18, 2007 3:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Matchups
I think POB just doesn't match up as well with the Raptors. Against the Clips POB is the only other big 5 we have that matches up against Kaman. The Raptors don't have a true 5. Then again maybe Nellie just wanted to give Austin a shot, or keep him from becoming too rusty.

by positivek on Nov 18, 2007 12:53 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

We're deep again...
I'd love to see Nellie give POB minutes.. especially when the opponent has a legitimate 5. BUT, even when the opponent doesn't have a legitimate 5, I'd like to see POB get in to see if he can throw in those jump hooks over smaller defenders.

by WhatUSay on Nov 18, 2007 1:03 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah...
When you're looking at Maceo Baston and Andrea Bargnani, you can afford to throw Croshere out there to stretch the floor. Tommorow, I suspect we'll see a rested POB working on Curry/Randolph. In fact, the POB/Wright combo might be pretty good against them, because they're so long and both those guys are such slug they could probably get some easy blocks, and certainly beat them down the floor.

by Zack Vank on Nov 18, 2007 1:15 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

lineups
a very interesting lineup I saw today was Baron, SJax, Wright, Harrington, Croshere

it's kinda small ball but it was kinda not... it was like.. MidBall?

by jlagace on Nov 18, 2007 1:19 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Longball?
Or maybe just straight Nellieball. Length and agility over strength and power. They weren't giving up much height with that lineup, while still having the fleet feet to play coast-to-coast.

by ffgolden on Nov 18, 2007 1:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Also...
...even as somebody who would just as soon see Pietrus traded, he has played pretty well this year.  He's showing better moves with the ball in his hand, and he's actually hitting shots in the middle of the floor.

by Zack Vank on Nov 18, 2007 1:22 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Answers
My guess is just about as good as the next person, but when Biedrins is already having trouble keeping up with Bosh, putting O'Bryant in would prove to be disastrous. That's why he elected to play Wright not POB. (Usually, POB gets the nod before Wright)

As far as Barnes/Jax/MP goes. I don't really think they overlap. Jax gets the starting nod. So it's just really between Barnes and MP to grab the spot to back him up. Barnes is more of a G/F or point forward while Pietrus is more for the toughness/rebound and Nellie is fond of playing him in the big forward position.

Really, the only big concern I have is we're playing all these guys with one year contracts excessive minutes. If they all warrant MLEs by season's end, then we have might lose some if not all of them in the summer. Then, we're back to square one because our youngsters didn't get enough playing time so next year, it's almost like we'll have a new team again.

by lightz0ut on Nov 18, 2007 1:55 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

that's the problem you want to have, tho
players playing so well that they are eligible for big paydays?  that's what takes you deep into the playoffs.  if nellie helps a couple of guys get the phat, overpriced contract, all power to them.  his magic touch, combined with some decent front office executive work, could keep hungry players cycling through our franchise for years...

(think of back in the day, what happened with guys like chris gatling, sarunas marciulonis, mario eli...)

by OaktownWarrior on Nov 18, 2007 3:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

POB hang in there..
Great game on Friday.  I hope POB just hangs in there and knows that there's a future for him here on the Warriors.  Friday he was confident, showed great hands and finished strong.  On the post-game interview it was nice to see how humble but excited he was.

For the Knicks, I don't think the Ws go twin towers, instead I think Nellie will just double down and dare the Knicks to make the extra pass and hit jumpers.  No way with Jamal (chucker) Crawford and Nate Robinson out there.  The Knicks are tailor made for the Ws to run them out of the house so long as the Warriors play good help defense and hustle for the boards.

Nothing better than "The City".

by philsmith75 on Nov 18, 2007 9:49 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

delusions of grandeur?
we win 2 games and we're worried about an overload of talent?!

what  A R E  y'all smokin? and pass it down!

Even at full strength, we're short in backup PG & PF /C

just enjoy the wins and hope for a TPE deal along the way to another nail-biting climb to #8 seed

by hardcore on Nov 18, 2007 11:24 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

just because we may not have
an "overload of talent" does not mean that assigning minutes won't be a problem.

I think the Barnes/Pietrus situation will be especially tense because both players are in a contract year and whoever gets the short end of the stick will be very unhappy about his value slipping due to a lack of pt.

Personally I hope we play both Barnes and Pietrus and don't play Croshere.

It's almost like the Warriors have 6 guys out there... they always have a guy open! - Jon Barry commentating game 3 last year

by gsw4life on Nov 19, 2007 12:38 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually...
...I don't think we're short at C at all. How many teams have a center andem that is truly better than Biedrins/O'Bryant? Center is still a thin position in today's NBA.

by Zack Vank on Nov 19, 2007 12:22 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

ya
saying that our backup C is crap is pretty redundant in today's NBA.
It's almost like the Warriors have 6 guys out there... they always have a guy open! - Jon Barry commentating game 3 last year

by gsw4life on Nov 19, 2007 12:41 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

POB's sky hook...
I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but how many of you are impressed with the range O'Bryant's got on his hook? Man, I don't know too many other big men in the league who can knock down a Kareem hook from out to 10 feet...

More of a lost art, quite a rarity among big men in the NBA today. I was dead wrong about this kid. I was so happy to see him at the game against the Clippers all fired up. That was really the first time I've EVER seen Patrick get excited about ANYTHING while he was on the floor. He had Barnes jumpin on em and he was swinging his fist in the air, such a relief to see that we didn't waste a pick after all.

I hate to build an outlook just from the result of one game, but just the thought of Pat, Andris, and Wright on our team...all of em 21 or younger...They've got the potential to be one of the most formidable assemblements of big men in the league for years to come. I'm also relieved to see that Patrick is not regressing from summer league and training camp, he just seems to get better and better, and you can actually see the confidence filling him up like water to a glass with each solid minute he spends on that floor.

One question for you all though....

Do you think that the Warriors may have a different plan with their roster now, in regards of who may be on the trading block come mid-season with the emergence of a player like O'Bryant? Will they have the resources to re-sign him after this off-season if he goes on to emerge as one of the most promising big men out there? How will they re-sign him, Azubuike(must), Biedrins, and Ellis without a trade involving Harrington?  Any thoughts?

This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 19, 2007 1:53 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

man..
When the offseason comes up, Mullin will be kicking himself for not picking up POB's option for next year.

by jlagace on Nov 19, 2007 4:21 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

its not too big a deal
POB is unlikely to even get 20 MPG. While we are all excited at what he's done so far, it's very difficult to see him doing so well to attract attention from other teams.

We can sign him for up to $3M or so without delving into the MLE itself; if it came to it we could spend the MLE on him (and correspondingly not be able to spend the MLE elsewhere, of course).

Will another team, based on backup minutes this year, be convinced to throw more $6M in starting salary at him? Varejao has more experience and was pretty productive in more minutes for a team in the Finals (lol!!!) and didn't get that much attention, though he was an RFA.

I will be more worried if POB blows up completely, but right now it's hard to see him getting an offer we can't top.

24 > 23

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 19, 2007 11:16 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hate to say this but....
All it really takes for a guy like POB to blow up is having the right game at the right time. If he had a game against a team like the Suns on nationally televised TNT, and had a line that looked like 24 points 14 boards and 4 blocks, then his name would be in the mouths of every basketball fan in the states and every GM in the league. Big men who have big games on big days are not overlooked....not ever.

Remember that Ellis dunk against the Suns? Remember how after the rookie-sophomore game the league showed that highlight again and again to the world?

And O'Bryant probably will get alot of minutes down the road simply because he's one of the few guys on the team who can rebound the ball for us.
I hate to say it but all he needs are about 2-3 more good games against good teams to be nationally recognized, and if he plays well at the end of the season when we're trying to clinch....all bets are off.

This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 19, 2007 3:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Naw
You're vastly overblowing the effect of one good game on national TV. The NBA is changing: there is less available cap space and teams are less inclined to waste it in speculatory signings these days. Your point on Ellis is unfounded; if he were so valuable, why couldn't he even fetch the #11 pick in last year's draft? Player value depends on contract status, team need, and production. One nationally televised "blow-up" game might affect a player's worth in the mind of *fans*, but I doubt any GM would be so influenced by anything POB did in one game to base his decision to sign or not sign POB upon that one performance. All this panic is for no reason. The return of Croshere pushed POB down in the rotation, so any games like the Clipper performance are likely to be sporadic at best.

24 > 23

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 19, 2007 3:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not saying that...
I'm saying that the one game would put him under the radar of GM's and blow him up completely to fans. All it takes is one game for a guy to be detected, then after that, The GM keeps a balanced eye on him for the remainder of the season, how do you think they do what they do? Thats how they make their living, the good ones at least.

Him being the 9th overall pick of the draft compared to Ellis being a 2nd round pick only strengthens my point. Do you think a center who was picked that high with his kind of potential will go somewhat unnoticed in a league starving for talented bigs, even if he plays well? I really have a difficult time thinking that we would be able to retain him for 3 mil... There is a high demand for young centers, and if POB plays well, and Nelson chooses to give him minutes during playoffs, then I think there will be a bidding war. I don't want to believe this, but I see it coming.

This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 19, 2007 3:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

radar
Being on the radar is one thing, planning to sign him is quite a different thing. Had we not selected him 9th, I really wonder how far he would have slid. To pry him away from the Warriors will likely require an MLE-level offer or better, and I don't think there are that many teams that are willing to spend that green on a guy that is still a project. Can we take a step back and breathe? The guy had one good game against the Clippers in limited minutes (12). As I pointed out before, Croshere pushes POB down in the rotation. I would be surprised if POB manages more than half a dozen performances like that, simply because he won't have enough minutes to do so (barring injury to Biedrins or Cro or whomever, which would change the situation, of course).

24 > 23

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 19, 2007 3:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I hope your right....
I'm still shellshocked over the Gilbert Arenas thing...I would hate to miss out on a young guy who looks like he's got a shot at being a great ballplayer. But your right, this off-season teams are pretty swamped financially, but still, a promising center like that might attract more attention then I'd want.

And I wouldn't put too much on Cro taking his minutes, Cro's gotta get healthy first, and even then who's to say he'll get back in his groove? If Patrick can build on his last performance, it'll be tough to keep him off the floor, for an ailing guy like Croshere...stiff backs aren't the best thing for a guy this late in his career wouldn't you say?

This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 19, 2007 4:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Gil and Cro
Arenas was playing starter's minutes and had around one and a half year of significant playing time. POB won't even sniff that many minutes or significance. Nellie favors veterans, at least early in the season. Cro is a veteran; POB is not. While health is always an issue, supposedly Cro has been OK for a week physically, he just hadn't practice. He won't be as great (i'd love it he were) as he was yesterday, but he'll make fewer mental mistakes and space the floor (and rebound!). Nellie's gonna go with Cro, and POB's gonna find himself down on paycheck-expanding minutes. If Croshere starts bombing, then this discussion might be worth starting up again, but until then, I stand by what I said earlier: POB won't earn MLE dollars this year.

24 > 23

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 19, 2007 5:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Back issues.
I wouldn't take this so lightly. I could dunk a basketball when I was a freshman in highschool, and I was only about 5-9 1/2. That summer, I hurt my back and I've still never fully recovered from that.

For an entire year, every time I tried to chase down a football in the open field, or jump over someone half a foot taller than me for a rebound, my lower back would lock up and spasms would shoot up my spine all the way to my shoulders like electric shock waves. The pain was so intense that I would just have to stop and sit down.

I won't speculate as to how bad Croshere's spasms are, but I don't think your really aware as to how this could effect Croshere for possibly the remainder of the season, and if it does, then you better believe Nellie will give O'Bryant the minutes. Now, I hope it was nothing more than a sore back....but if it's stiffening up on him, that could be very bad.

This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 19, 2007 5:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Croshere
When it flares up to the point that he's out regularly or for an extended period, then we can talk about POB more.

Even still, on a night when he played the best he's ever played, he got...12 minutes?

My point stands. He won't get enough burn to earn the MLE+ deal it would take to make him leave, at least without a fight.

24 > 23

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 19, 2007 6:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

you can bet
that Nelson will give POB more than 12 minutes to work with after the All-star break. Based on what he's shown us, there's no excuse for him not to play significant minutes for the 2nd half of the season.

I don't think Nelson is interested in "hiding O'Bryant" on the bench, just for the sake of being able to re-sign him at a reasonable price. Nelson just wants to coach and win.

He will coach this talented ball player when he's ready.
He will be more than ready after 40 games.
Nelson will play him over Croshere.
O'Bryant will continue to get better.

Now, if you're not worried that O'Bryant will be "noticed", and that no one will offer him 5-6  million a year, then I'd say your being awfully confident.

PS - O'Bryant will be a better player than Croshere, possibly even by season's end.

This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 25, 2007 4:41 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

that is if POB
isn't part of a trade package by then ...

by hardcore on Nov 25, 2007 8:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

POB
People don't spend $5-6M annually as easily as they did before.

Go back and look at the guys I mentioned:

Is POB better thus far more potent than Amir Johnson or Andray Blatche? Cuz those guys only got $3M/year

A team would need to be pretty optimistic to devote the MLE to POB.

And no, I'm not sure Nellie will give POb more than 12MPG

not with mbenga being effective

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 25, 2007 1:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Mbenga?
Riiiiight....
This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 25, 2007 5:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

how bout
instead of trying to be snide, you actually stop and do some background?

Check Adam Lauridsen's latest Fast Break entry and read his praise for DJ Banger.

Then headover to 82games.com and check the defensive +/- so far.

While you're at it, call Don Nelson and ask him what he thinks of Mbenga, the guy he coached before and liked enough to bring on board and play right away.

After that, you can go back to trying to be witty, cuz I might be wrong and you might be right.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 25, 2007 7:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

witty
If you consider that being able to recognize that O'Bryant can actually catch and interior pass, or dunk on the fast break, or effectively score, and make excellent kick out passes...then thanks.

I'm not saying M'Benga's not a good player, because I love the guy and I'm behind him 100%. BUUUT I think O'Bryant's a better player. Certainly has a good chance to be significantly better.

This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 25, 2007 9:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

not witty, not discerning
Nothing you've said addresses my point: Mbenga's been effective and has the faith of Nelson (apparently), which Does affect POB's potential playing time.

That, in turn, affects his future market value.

So what if POB has shown you flashes of the abilities you mention? GM's don't throw money MLE level money at guys that never play.

My point stands. MBenga will dig into POB's playing time; without playing time POB's not getting the type of attention you think he will.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 25, 2007 10:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

POB
I told you I thought he could play...

by Gain on 10 on Nov 20, 2007 1:44 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

THE MONEY: A comparison
For those of you worrying about the likelihood of another team swooping POB off us:

Amir Johnson got $10.8M/3 years from the Pistons. He was beloved by local fans but had done nothing in the NBA. Like POB, he had a good showing in the D-League, but that's it.

Andray Blatche got an extension for $15M/5 years from the Wizards. He had been a restricted free agent. Blatche had significantly more time than Johnson in the L, but averaged only 12 minutes per game in 56 contests.

Given that POB is unlikely to eclipse 12 MPG, it is unlikely he gets more than the roughly $3M/year that either of those guys got. That figure is something we can match without delving into the MLE.

24 > 23

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 20, 2007 3:56 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

CORRECTION
My original reading of the rule was incorrect.

We cannot pay POB more than $2.4M with the Early Bird Exception, if we want to pay him more than that we have to use part of the MLE itself.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 23, 2007 3:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This is a good plan
I agree with Mullin on this one.

It lights a fire with POB and his agent to actually show up in games.

If he turns out to be productive, then his value is raised and everyone wins.

The only risk is if he starts dumping 12-15 a night.  Nelson can bench him in that case and pray no one noticed.

A risk worth taking, I doubt he'll hit double figures in scoring very often this year, probably under ten times total for all season.

by Gain on 10 on Nov 21, 2007 9:01 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

why does this diary
keep floating back up to the top?

by hardcore on Nov 23, 2007 1:43 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

sometimes
it's not about which go up as much as which go down  =P

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 23, 2007 3:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

mbenga
comparison to o'bryant earlier only talked about respective offensive attributes, and it seems like mbenga offers relatively more on the defensive side of the ball.  that's not a bad backup rotation, all things considered and given what's available.

while you've got some nice comparisons there with amir johnson etc. as evidence that patty o won't be swiped, there are obviously other cases where opposing GMs gamble and overpay on unproven talent.  
so, sure, we might lose him.  

I haven't ever been as down on the guy as a lot of folks here, but let's not get carried away in the other direction based on the little we've seen.  Hopefully he'll be able to develop in the scraps he gets thrown by Nellie, and earn the guy's trust.  Then, let the market do its thing, and let's hope Mullin keeps up his new-found frugality.

by panhandlelegend on Nov 26, 2007 7:00 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Blessing in Disguise
POB is such a mellow dude, perhaps it all is for the best.

If he'd been thrust into heavy minutes last year, he might have been mentally destroyed.

No one expects anything of him, and he's out to prove them wrong!

Maybe with his personality type, that's the only way he could develope?  Er, I mean the best way, to make him fight for it.  To bring out his fire at the coach instead of himself for struggling in games.  Protect his ego at the start, kind of thing.

Ha! I can't believe I just wrote Nelson was protecting his ego...but in a strange way...

by Gain on 10 on Nov 26, 2007 3:40 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

There's no conflict
in making the choice between Mbenga and O'Bryant. I think we can, and will keep them both. But I think O'Bryant will have a better career. As pointed out before, it was only a question of heart and determination. Nobody questioned his talent.
This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 27, 2007 2:14 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

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