Idea: Substitution Pattern
So, I know the Dubs are finally off their losing skid and with Jax back, they'll probably never lose another game all season, yada yada yada. But the real question that will plague the Warriors all season is whether or not the youth on this extremely deep team will be able to contribute.
In all, there are 7 players on our team with less than 4 years in the league. If you consider actual playing time, you could make a case for this number to be 9 (including Pietrus and Barnes who each have 4). In my opinion, the only way for these younger guys to develop to their full potential is to get playing time. Success in the NBA, like all professional sports (or life, for that matter), comes to those who are confident. Anyone who's actually played basketball will tell you that the only way to make a shot is to believe you are going to make the shot. Superstars rarely surprise themselves because they believe in themselves and already know what they're capable of.
My point here is that the reason that Marco isn't making his shots is because he's not confident in himself. He looks scared out there. This is completely different from how he looked in the Summer League. For anyone who watched the games, he actually looked hungry to score and confident that he was better than those he was going up against. Now, he looks like he's just trying not to screw up. Aside from each of their respective "breakout" games, POB and Wright look like they're kind of in the same boat.
We need to get these guys more playing time if they are truly going to be the faces of the franchise in the coming years. It's tough to get game time confidence when you only play 4 minutes a game. It's more of a mental detriment than anything. Marco probably feels like he can't find a rythm in the NBA and that fear is probably difficult to overcome, especially for a streaky shooter. I think Nellie has been too predictable in not playing his young guys. The depth of our bench is going to be the difference if we do indeed end up making the playoffs this year.
This is somewhat out of the box, and I'm sure I'll get some haters, but what would you guys think about a different substitution pattern? One that resembles the sub patterns of hockey. We could start Baron, Kaz, Jax, Al and Andris and play them for somewhere around 8-9 minutes a quarter. The other "line" we could use would be some combo of Ellis, Barnes/Belli, Pietrus/Barnes, Wright, POB. These guys could make up the other 3-4 min/quarter. What this does is always keep scorers (Baron&Kaz or Ellis&Pietrus/Belli)) on the floor with at least one good defender (Jax or Barnes). This sort of substitution patterns would allow our starters to stay fresh deeper into every game and ultimately, the season while giving our young players a real chance to develop some confidence. If nothing else, we'd be giving them a fair shot.
With all of the running and up tempo style play, do you think this sub pattern would help or hurt the Dubs? Obviously, changes would have to be made on a game by game basis, but in my opinion, this type of subbing would keep our starters fresh at the end of the game while allowing our up and comers a chance to both play together and get significant minutes.
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
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13 comments
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Sounds good, in theory....
From what I've seen from nellie, he likes to take things as it comes. For example, he knew that it was gonna be tough the first 7 games, and yes - he warned us, so he kept his rotation VERY short hoping that known talent would get the dubs a win or two.
I feel once we hit a softer part of our schedule, you'll see more minutes from wright, pob and belinelli.
Best duo since...
by Tim N Chris Burger on Nov 19, 2007 12:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
lines
i'm sure there's some complicated way of overlapping players, though. i definitely like the idea of getting the young kids some consistent playing time- while also giving baron rest.
there's a lot that could go wrong, and in this regard nellie has actually shown he's very conservative.
by airport son on Nov 19, 2007 12:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
A drawback to a pre-packaged sub pattern
And teams don't only mismatch with 1 to 1 match ups. Coaches sometimes use a secondary player to prevent another coach from using shut down strategies for one player, for example okur helps to keep teams from zoning on booser. Or a good shooter is always with a strong post presence.
Because you are "showing your hand" by having cookie cutter lineups, the dubs lose the element of surprise. That means a lot to the dubs since their neither the most talented team or the best executing team.
Best duo since...
by Tim N Chris Burger on Nov 19, 2007 12:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I
By the way, tight webpin.
by BALLINelli on Nov 19, 2007 1:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
my bad, i should have been wiser with my words
That's why he wouldn't go with pre-scripted lines. It ties his hands from getting all funky-experimental on us.
Best duo since...
by Tim N Chris Burger on Nov 19, 2007 1:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sub-patterns
The problem is that this isn't Nellie's style at all. He is primarily a match-up coach when it comes to subs and personnel. Think back to the game last year against Houston where he practically drove VanGundy out of coaching by exploiting the Al/Yao matchup and keeping AB off the floor until Yao went to the bench.
Personally I would love to see some way that we could limit Baron's minutes while playing the young guys more often, but for the time being Nellie seems to think that we don't have much of a chance if we do that, and judging by the record so far I'd have to agree.
.
by olympicmike on Nov 19, 2007 3:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think
by Dubs4Life on Nov 19, 2007 3:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
quality of play
by ripjrich on Nov 19, 2007 5:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Marco's shooting
by hardcore on Nov 19, 2007 5:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yes...
If we're runnig the other team, and guys are getting open looks, to me thats the perfect time for Marco to enter the game. He doesn't belong in the game when we're neck and neck with the other team, and we're bringing the ball up the court with the intention of running a play. Thats the worst time you could put him in the game at this point. I agree with you, do what you can to get him confident again. There's no reason why he can't shoot the ball again this year like he did in training camp.
by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 19, 2007 5:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
One more thing...
by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 19, 2007 5:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Right
Now.. we just need to find a way to get our hands on a lead like that..
by jlagace on Nov 20, 2007 3:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't the W's have the luxury...
You could argue the following ranking of "value to the team":
- Baron
- Jax
- Andris
- Al
- Kaz
- Monta
- Barnes
- Cro
- MP2
- POB
- Wright
- Bellinelli
- THud (could leapfrog the rooks once he gets back)
- DJ (a wall of practice meat)
- Kosta (one day we'll see)
Maybe one of the other guys can eventually get rotation minutes (i.e avg around 15 mpg) but I think that for a little while at least, they'll only get used as needed and accumulate very little PT. POB, Wright, Bellinelli and THud will all have games where they will contribute, say like, in extended PT of up to 10 minutes or so. But they'll have many more games where they only get a handfull of garbage minutes or not even play at all.
My hope is that someone can step up at make it a 10 deep squad. Early on it looks like Wright maybe the best suited for NellyBall, he just needs to toughen up a bit.
Someone above mentioned about the drawbacks to a 'pre-packaged sub pattern'. Patterns will happen out of necessity. Clearly Baron & Jax are by far the best ballers on the W's, and obviously they need to start together and play together as much as possible. But they also need to relieve each other as well. When Baron goes out for a rest who really replaces him on the court? Yes Monta will play the point, but Jax will be the quarterback. Substitution patterns would be based around Baron and Jax each captians of two different squads. If the W's went 10 deep, how would you break them up into two different squads?
I'd put:
Baron - MP2 - Barnes - Al - Cro
Monta - Kaz - Jax - Wright - Andris
by miguelito on Nov 20, 2007 4:10 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

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