Idea: Substitution Pattern

by BALLINelli on Nov 19, 2007 11:47 AM PST

So, I know the Dubs are finally off their losing skid and with Jax back, they'll probably never lose another game all season, yada yada yada. But the real question that will plague the Warriors all season is whether or not the youth on this extremely deep team will be able to contribute.

In all, there are 7 players on our team with less than 4 years in the league. If you consider actual playing time, you could make a case for this number to be 9 (including Pietrus and Barnes who each have 4). In my opinion, the only way for these younger guys to develop to their full potential is to get playing time. Success in the NBA, like all professional sports (or life, for that matter), comes to those who are confident. Anyone who's actually played basketball will tell you that the only way to make a shot is to believe you are going to make the shot. Superstars rarely surprise themselves because they believe in themselves and already know what they're capable of.

My point here is that the reason that Marco isn't making his shots is because he's not confident in himself. He looks scared out there. This is completely different from how he looked in the Summer League. For anyone who watched the games, he actually looked hungry to score and confident that he was better than those he was going up against. Now, he looks like he's just trying not to screw up. Aside from each of their respective "breakout" games, POB and Wright look like they're kind of in the same boat.

We need to get these guys more playing time if they are truly going to be the faces of the franchise in the coming years. It's tough to get game time confidence when you only play 4 minutes a game. It's more of a mental detriment than anything. Marco probably feels like he can't find a rythm in the NBA and that fear is probably difficult to overcome, especially for a streaky shooter. I think Nellie has been too predictable in not playing his young guys. The depth of our bench is going to be the difference if we do indeed end up making the playoffs this year.

This is somewhat out of the box, and I'm sure I'll get some haters, but what would you guys think about a different substitution pattern? One that resembles the sub patterns of hockey. We could start Baron, Kaz, Jax, Al and Andris and play them for somewhere around 8-9 minutes a quarter. The other "line" we could use would be some combo of Ellis, Barnes/Belli, Pietrus/Barnes, Wright, POB. These guys could make up the other 3-4 min/quarter. What this does is always keep scorers (Baron&Kaz or Ellis&Pietrus/Belli)) on the floor with at least one good defender (Jax or Barnes). This sort of substitution patterns would allow our starters to stay fresh deeper into every game and ultimately, the season while giving our young players a real chance to develop some confidence. If nothing else, we'd be giving them a fair shot.

With all of the running and up tempo style play, do you think this sub pattern would help or hurt the Dubs? Obviously, changes would have to be made on a game by game basis, but in my opinion, this type of subbing would keep our starters fresh at the end of the game while allowing our up and comers a chance to both play together and get significant minutes.

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

Tweet Comment 13 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Sounds good, in theory....

But, I don't know. The season is still relatively young, so to think that the subsitution pattern of the last 8 games is a harbinger of things to come, to me, is a little like putting the cart before the horse.

From what I've seen from nellie, he likes to take things as it comes. For example, he knew that it was gonna be tough the first 7 games, and yes - he warned us, so he kept his rotation VERY short hoping that known talent would get the dubs a win or two.

I feel once we hit a softer part of our schedule, you'll see more minutes from wright, pob and belinelli.

Best duo since...

by Tim N Chris Burger on Nov 19, 2007 12:22 PM PST reply actions

lines

i've often thought this might work, too. that way they know what they're going in to do. football and hockey do this more often, but i doubt it'd work simply b/c we need jack or baron out there.

i'm sure there's some complicated way of overlapping players, though. i definitely like the idea of getting the young kids some consistent playing time- while also giving baron rest.

there's a lot that could go wrong, and in this regard nellie has actually shown he's very conservative.

by airport son on Nov 19, 2007 12:30 PM PST reply actions

A drawback to a pre-packaged sub pattern

It makes scouting easier for your opponents. Its far easier in basketball to shut down a team by shutting down 1 player than it is in any other sport.

And teams don't only mismatch with 1 to 1 match ups. Coaches sometimes use a secondary player to prevent another coach from using shut down strategies for one player, for example okur helps to keep teams from zoning on booser. Or a good shooter is always with a strong post presence.

Because you are "showing your hand" by having cookie cutter lineups, the dubs lose the element of surprise. That means a lot to the dubs since their neither the most talented team or the best executing team.

Best duo since...

by Tim N Chris Burger on Nov 19, 2007 12:44 PM PST up reply actions

I

Didn't know that our current substitution pattern was so "surprising" to other teams in the first place. Our 7-8 man rotation seems pretty basic and traditional to me. If anything, this would force other teams to set up game plans for more players. Also, we wouldn't have to use the same "lines" for different teams. We could customize these lineups depending on who we face.

By the way, tight webpin.

by BALLINelli on Nov 19, 2007 1:24 PM PST up reply actions

my bad, i should have been wiser with my words

The surprise isn't the personel, its the use of them. Nellie has always been a non-conformist with regards to using players according to position. Players like barnes or peitrus are played at traditional c and pf positions, for example. THat's where he'll surprise teams. By doing that sometimes he has to compensate at other positions.

That's why he wouldn't go with pre-scripted lines. It ties his hands from getting all funky-experimental on us.

Best duo since...

by Tim N Chris Burger on Nov 19, 2007 1:40 PM PST up reply actions

Sub-patterns

Some coaches do opt to use these sort of scripted patterns when subbing players in/out. You will see it most often with aging players who need to have their minutes limited. Sloan did this with Stockton for a few years to keep him fresh for the playoffs. He would bring him out at the same time every game without much regard for the score. D'Antoni does the same thing with Nash, though he's not quite as strict about it.

The problem is that this isn't Nellie's style at all. He is primarily a match-up coach when it comes to subs and personnel. Think back to the game last year against Houston where he practically drove VanGundy out of coaching by exploiting the Al/Yao matchup and keeping AB off the floor until Yao went to the bench.

Personally I would love to see some way that we could limit Baron's minutes while playing the young guys more often, but for the time being Nellie seems to think that we don't have much of a chance if we do that, and judging by the record so far I'd have to agree.

by olympicmike on Nov 19, 2007 3:07 PM PST reply actions

I think

as the season progresses nellie will trust the rooks more. I would like to see belinelli play more but he cant play any defense and sometimes gets really abused. I think his role will become larger and larger as the season progresses. Also when the injury bug hits, and we all know some guys are gonna go down, nellie will be forced to play some of these young kids a lot more and then we will be able to effectively judge these guys.

by Dubs4Life on Nov 19, 2007 3:46 PM PST reply actions

quality of play

if the rookies deserve time, they probably will get it. didnt josh howard tear it up his rookie year under nelson? so far wright and pob have played decently in short minutes, likely earning them more time. beli on the other hand, has not. while 4 minutes is a very short perios of time, it is still enough time to make a positive contribution. beli, aside from the 2 three's the first game, has not done anything of note that i can recall.

we will miss your j rich

by ripjrich on Nov 19, 2007 5:11 PM PST reply actions

Marco's shooting

you could be right about the confidence issue, but I was never overwhelmed with his shooting % coming out of Euroball to begin with, and until he gets right I'd be hesitant to put him in when so many other more proven options exist at the SG/SF while we're scratching for wins

by hardcore on Nov 19, 2007 5:47 PM PST reply actions

Yes...

I think the most important thing for a rookie shooter to do is to be put in the game only when the team is shooting well. Confidence and made buckets can be quite contagious, especially with our uptempo pace...

If we're runnig the other team, and guys are getting open looks, to me thats the perfect time for Marco to enter the game. He doesn't belong in the game when we're neck and neck with the other team, and we're bringing the ball up the court with the intention of running a play. Thats the worst time you could put him in the game at this point. I agree with you, do what you can to get him confident again. There's no reason why he can't shoot the ball again this year like he did in training camp.

This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 19, 2007 5:54 PM PST up reply actions

One more thing...

He shouldnt be put in the game to "improve" our 3 point shooting, because we "need" some shots to go down if we're struggling. To expect him to deliver under that kind of pressure right now with his confidence at a low point would be foolish. We should all just take a step back from the expectations and focus on what kind of opportunities he has to get his mojo running.

This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 19, 2007 5:57 PM PST up reply actions

Right

Ideally, we run the other team out of the gym early in the game; then we can let Belinelli and Wright, and POB come into the game and build themselves some confidence. If the lead starts shrinking, then we put the starters back in.

Now.. we just need to find a way to get our hands on a lead like that..

by jlagace on Nov 20, 2007 3:20 AM PST up reply actions

Don't the W's have the luxury...

of not needing to play the rookies?

You could argue the following ranking of "value to the team":

Baron
Jax
Andris
Al
Kaz
Monta
Barnes
Cro
MP2
POB
Wright
Bellinelli
THud (could leapfrog the rooks once he gets back)
DJ (a wall of practice meat)
Kosta (one day we'll see)

Starters, as on Sunday vs Raps: Baron, Kaz, Jax, Al & Anris. With Monta, Barnes, Cro & MP2 rounding out a 9 man rotation.

Maybe one of the other guys can eventually get rotation minutes (i.e avg around 15 mpg) but I think that for a little while at least, they'll only get used as needed and accumulate very little PT. POB, Wright, Bellinelli and THud will all have games where they will contribute, say like, in extended PT of up to 10 minutes or so. But they'll have many more games where they only get a handfull of garbage minutes or not even play at all.

My hope is that someone can step up at make it a 10 deep squad. Early on it looks like Wright maybe the best suited for NellyBall, he just needs to toughen up a bit.

Someone above mentioned about the drawbacks to a 'pre-packaged sub pattern'. Patterns will happen out of necessity. Clearly Baron & Jax are by far the best ballers on the W's, and obviously they need to start together and play together as much as possible. But they also need to relieve each other as well. When Baron goes out for a rest who really replaces him on the court? Yes Monta will play the point, but Jax will be the quarterback. Substitution patterns would be based around Baron and Jax each captians of two different squads. If the W's went 10 deep, how would you break them up into two different squads?

I'd put:

Baron - MP2 - Barnes - Al - Cro
Monta - Kaz - Jax - Wright - Andris

by miguelito on Nov 20, 2007 4:10 AM PST reply actions