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Backup Point Guard (redux)

So we've been over and around this a hundred times.  I was going to post this in the "Which Power Forward Will Save Us" Thread, as a continuation of the discussion there, but realized it has nothing to do with Power Forwards.

So as Option Zero repeats all the time, the spot is the most critical void on our team.  Getting BD some rest is absolutely critical.
But there just aren't very many options out there.  Signing thud was management's attempt, but the guys more of a dud than a stud.
So here are the options I've come up with:
With Ridnour out, the Sonics will have to keep Watson, who otherwise I would have liked and might have been available with West there, too.
Boykins. Not a point guard. tiny. but electricity off the bench.  not exactly gonna help our defensive woes. but available
Payton.  discussed ad infinitum before. oaktown native.  old as hell.  not what we need.
1 of the Portland kids, for me preferably Sergio Rodriguez who hasn't been getting much burn behind the logjam there.
One of the Orlando pgs: arroyo or Keyon Dooling.  I know Dooling is more of a slasher, but I'd take him over Thud any day.
One off of Minnesota's carcass: Buckner or Telfair.
Flip Murray?

Pretty bleak.

But we've got to do something about this spot.
And here's my best idea:

How about Kyle Lowry?  Seems like Memphis has a bunch of pgs; conley, lowry, JC Navarro and Mighty Mouse.  Lowry is solidly in the rotation there, but seems like they could cover for his absence.
On the wings, in contrast, they run Gay, Mike Miller and Tarence Kinsey.  So come the passing of the Dec 15th trade restriction deadline, I think we should try to swing MP3 for Lowry.  

Before the trolls jump me, I know the trade doesn't work 1 for 1.  so we'd have to be creative, and maybe some of you guys can help me with the numbers.  for now (pre-15th), ESPN trade machine has a bunch of guys on all rosters who aren't allowed to be included
3 way trade, etc.

But just as far as two needs matching up, the two teams should try to work something out.

What do you all think?  Have better ideas?

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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Remember this name Goran Dragic
he's not available this year but next year if the warriors will still need a backup pg he would be awesome.He is 20 years old 6.3 and is known as great defender, slasher and very good distributor( he shut down Tony parker in couple games in Eurobasket).

by buky on Nov 24, 2007 6:59 AM PST reply actions  

Our team's an avocado
not a lemon. We just gotta sit tight and take our lumps and we 'ripen' with each and every passing game.  

There's no poison in the system (ala the Knicks); we're just young and still growing/fusing together. I'd hold off breaking things up trying to go for the knock out right now; we obviously didn't make the proper off-season moves in order to do that and if we tried to, well, they fell through (ahem KG)

Every game there are signs of life with our current squad; now we just need patience; we're only 3 games off .500 as opposed to 10+ under. You think teams like Seattle at 2-11 or Minnesota at 1-9 are panicking and ready to blow up their young teams just because vintage Boston is doing so well? Probably not.

Give our young guys some time and burn; lets give Monta even more burn til he gets comfortable and 'Believe' in him instead of stripping his confidence with trade threats after every sub-par game. And If Nelson's gonna keep running BD into the ground like an idiot and not trust the pieces he helped assemble, then maybe we should look no further for the root of the problem

I remember watching JRich early years and I wanted him gone after EVERY GAME because he had 'potential' but always seemed to fumble the ball away, he couldn't hit the big shot, he couldn't take people off the dribble nor finish off one foot; he was awkward and seemed lost at times and sucked real bad sometimes - basically the growing pains Monta's going through but Monta's got a much higher/greater growth ceiling imho.

So as far as backup PG, unless J-Kidd leaves NJ and is willing to play for peanuts coming off the bench with us, I'd hold out til next year's draft and just play this year out regardless of how painful.

"Hey, i'm a warrior fan so i'm naturally pessimistic." - Kenntoe

by Anomaly on Nov 24, 2007 9:55 AM PST reply actions  

Yup
I'm quite impressed with how the team handled that 0-6 start, especially with all the hype and expectations being carried over from last year's playoff run.

There was no finger pointing, no blaming, no drama.  What that tells me is that everyone on the team is on the same page; and with the average NBA ego nowadays, that's something very hard to attain.

by jlagace on Nov 24, 2007 10:00 AM PST up reply actions  

agreed
you don't get through that without some leadership, BD & Nelson

in Nelson we trust

by hardcore on Nov 24, 2007 7:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Mmmm mmmmm!!!
31 pts, 7-8 FTM-A, 7 rb, 3 ast,1 1 blk, 2 TO...

Looking good, my tasty Avocado!  

New backup PG, undoing our slowly gellin' team chemistry and watching Monta become an All-Star regular for another team's jersey? No freakin' thx, I'll pass.

And don't bother trying to convince me with facts and figures; when it comes to character and heart, all those stats don't mean sh!t.

"Hey, i'm a warrior fan so i'm naturally pessimistic." - Kenntoe

by Anomaly on Nov 25, 2007 10:56 AM PST up reply actions  

i actually think monta is doing good
and shoot get some more minutes at point and let baron rest more.

by Proof on Nov 24, 2007 12:25 PM PST reply actions  

the answer is next year's draft
Had this debate with OZ (and maybe a few others) a couple of months ago, but we MUST draft a PG in next year's draft. Next year's likely draft class is one of the most PG rich classes ever. We may (hopefully) have to trade up to do so, but there could be value at the PG spot as late as the 16-20 picks depending on what teams with what needs end up in what spots.

I say this year, we bide our time with Monta and Bellinelli giving spot minutes. If Monta shows he can hack it w/out dribbling off his leg every other play, great, PG problem solved. If he can't but continues to show he is a legit scorer, do a sign and trade package with him for a solid pick, 8-13 range, and draft the PG of the future.

by Lifelong on Nov 24, 2007 12:44 PM PST reply actions  

draft
After Rose and Mayo, which PG's are worth looking at?

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Nov 24, 2007 1:05 PM PST up reply actions  

off the top of my head
my boy darren collinson (UCLA connection!)
chris lofton

from what  i have heard, collinson is

  1. not a top prospect a la rose, so he could fall to us
  2. great defender and passer but not much of a shooter
lastly, was crittenton available at #18? if so, it COULD have been a mistake to pass on him.

on the original topic, lowry intrigues me. they have 4 guys who can play PG, so they may not need him, and he has shown flashes.

we will miss your j rich

by ripjrich on Nov 24, 2007 3:44 PM PST up reply actions  

crittenton
Was taken 19th. I was sure we were gonna take him, the Belinelli pick came outta nowhere.

Lowry is officially a blue chipper...i.e. out of our price range unless u wanna start sending 3-4 first rounders their way. He is a stud.

I cannot believe Lowry, Sergio Rodriguez, Farmar, Jack...all went btw 20-30 in the same year as POB going 9th. Argh.

Collison has the body of a 16 yr old:

I like strong PGs.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Nov 24, 2007 4:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Crittenton
Me too. I was shocked when they didn't call his name out. I was only mildly familiar with Marco and I'm pretty sure nobody saw that one coming.
.

by olympicmike on Nov 24, 2007 10:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Backup point guard
This is not the same as waiting for your first round pick to develop. Monta Ellis is a restricted free agent that will, on his scoring and hype, demand more money than he is worth.

This is not a team that has the time to wait for a backup point guard to develop, it most certainly does not have time to watch a combo guard try to be   a backup point guard. All the feel good nonsense about hoping that Ellis becomes a point guard is just that, nonsense. Baron Davis is the most important guy on the team and protecting him should be our #1 priority- that means a legit backup point guard.

Ellis is a commodity that should be cashed in immediately, let's stop fooling ourselves. He doesn't fit and his timeline doesn't fit the team's timeline. Bye.

Names I like:
Telfair, young, speedy, passes the ball, lots of upside. Unfortunately, he's small, historically a bad shooter, not physical, low FTA rate. He's also on a one year deal so there is no long term risk.

Duhon. Makes $3M expiring. Can be had for nothing because the Bulls are sucking. Reputedly a great individual defender. No offensive game outside of decent 3P shooting.

Carlos Arroyo. Playing very well. Expiring $4M contract. He's my favorite so far, as he's toned down his shoot-first tendencies and assisting at a better rate.

Calderon. Ridiculously good distributor. not that much individual offense, but hits enough open J's to keep defenses honest. Good percentages all around.

With Conley down there's no way we'd get Lowry, he's just too good and the Grizz envision themselves having a new Ford-Calderon combo.

It'll take a while to see which names are really available.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Nov 24, 2007 1:04 PM PST reply actions  

preNFLSundayNBA
Calderon & Raptors playing Bulls

by hardcore on Nov 25, 2007 9:13 AM PST up reply actions  

maybe I'm beating a dead horse
watch backup PG Louis Williams against the Warriors tonight

by jlagace on Nov 24, 2007 4:07 PM PST reply actions  

By the Way ripjrich
Chris Lofton is not a PG.  He looks like one, but he plays like a shooting guard. Good Three point and free throw shooter, but not a great ballhandler or passer.
 And Darren Collison is a solid shooter. http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?playerId=19079&draftyear=2008
You're a UCLA fan, dont you watch this guy ripjrich.

Because im a huge Texas fan, D.J. Augustin would be a great fit for us. He's smart and a terrific passer. Also a good shooter, espicially from the charity stripe and the 3 and loves to push the ball. And by the way, he's a PURE point guard. I watched him play a few hours ago against Tennesee, and Augustin killed them. The only negative about him is his size. Here is his scouting report and the box score from todays game.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?playerId=19083&draftyear=2008
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=273280251

 

i hope we win a championship soon

by Da Jrich tribute on Nov 24, 2007 7:27 PM PST reply actions  

augustin
is 5'11

All the point guards after Rose/Mayo are undersized. Find me one with an NBA body.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Nov 24, 2007 7:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Keith Langford
He's in the D League now, but he was always considered a major talent at Kansas and he's looked impressive in a couple D League games so far for Austin.

He had 28 and 7 on 9-17 shooting in their first game, and 34 and 6 on 14-24 shooting in their second against Kosta's Jam.

Only issue is that I can't remember if he really plays a true PG or not. That being said, the D League is a great resource for a lot of talent that teams have egregiously rarely used so far. Jose Barea (from my school, Northeastern) wouldn't be a bad backup PG to have right now, right? He spent almost all of last year in the D League. Lots of free talent floating around.

by jonathan on Nov 24, 2007 8:05 PM PST reply actions  

Langford
Is listed at a SG/SF:

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Keith-Langford-111/stats/

At 6'4 203lbs he would have a nice PG body.

Haven't see him play, but i'll look for any scouting on him.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Nov 24, 2007 8:14 PM PST up reply actions  

thud
I think everybody is giving up on Hudson a bit hastily. Dude has been hurt and yeah he had one terrible game but come on people give the guy a chance. I'm not saying he's going to make us a championship contender or anything but honestly I think all we really need from him is a few minutes a night to keep Baron fresh. Monta started off slow but he's definitely making strides- taking better care of the ball, distributing pretty well, and reining in his shot selection. If he can give us 30 solid minutes a night and Hudson can give us 10 we should be fine. I actually welcome back a healthy Hudson so that we can scale back Jack's ball-handling duties. Jack is obviously a key component in our system but I think Nellie needs to define his role a little bit to try to keep his turnovers and FGAs down.
Livin in the E

by ebot on Nov 24, 2007 11:44 PM PST reply actions  

Why not Ellis? D-League back up PG?
He's playing great and he's younger than anyone else out there. He's made some great passes and has put forth an effort to distribute the  ball more this early in the season. He still only looks to pass once he's arrived to the hoop, instead of making the skilled interior and pick and roll passes, but he's still improved nonetheless.

Can anybody please explain to me like I'm an 11 yr. old, very specifically, the reasoning as to why a 22 yr. old ball player as talented as Ellis, can not be a good back-up now, and a great starting PG in about 3 yrs?

Running teams like the Warriors need what? mmm urrrrr uhhhhhh players who can run? Ding! Ding!!! That's correct, players who can run.
Who would be  more appropriate in a guard, than having a player with Ellis' speed on our team?

How old is he again?

Has he not shown an ability to take a game over and dominate a team's defense???

Could you at least wait until he'd be a college graduate until you write him off completely?

You're crucifying this guy, and he hasn't even scratched the tip of the ice berg, and he basically won the game for us tonight against the 6er's...Don't start kissing his ass when he develops into a fine ball player, and don't jump back on the band wagon when Belinelli does the same...mercy...

Back-up PG

So basically you probably caught on that I'm under the opinion that we will do fine with Ellis. However, I don't think Hudson's the guy for the job. I don't like his size, his versatility is a bit limited as far as what he does for us, and so far he looks like he's planning to shoot us out of games.

So, my plan would be to stick with Ellis for now, while sending a freaking legion of scouts to the D-league(yes, the D-League where we snatched Buike) and to Europe, to check out the hottest product over there. We look to for another heist to commit, and find us a young player who can run a team and shoot the ball. Someone got passed over, and that someone's pissed. That someone's on a mission to be on an NBA squad and show the world what he's really made of. We need to find him, just like we find everyone else.

OR we can make a few bonehead trades, bring in a scoring "little person" or some ol mopped up bastard to come run the show for us...then we'd find ourselves a real back up point...not some overrated weakling like Ellis.

This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 25, 2007 5:32 AM PST reply actions  

Ellis
well...since you asked for it...

On the Court:

Ellis has had a number of good games as a scoring guard. The distribution of the ball and running of the offense has by and large still been handled by Baron and Stephen Jackson; Baron's minutes this trip make it painfully evidence Nellie doesn't think Ellis is capable of sustaining the offense himself.

As I pointed out with Arenas, what makes a good point guard is subtle. It starts at the mental level, where your mindset must be to want to create for others. Even if you think you have a good scoring opportunity, the thought process is stilll "how can I turn this into a bucket for my teammate" (whether this trip down the court or the next).

Jim Barnett mentioned a few things:

  • taking the ball in on penetration far enough and in the correct direction to draw the defense and create (there's that word again) the space to make a pass to a teammate open for the shot
  • running the pick and roll correctly, rubbing your man off on the screen, taking the proper angle so you, again, take the D away farther and open a passing angle to a cutting big or rotating shooter
  • making crisp passes, making well-timed passes, making well-placed passes. Monta one-hands the ball too much, and doesn't always lead his man with the ball correctly
Those are just some of the faults he's exhibited offensively. Your response, undoubtedly, is that he's young and he'll improve, so that leads to my next few points.

Before I go on, however, it's worth pointing out that Ellis never went to college. He was never asked to be a pure point in high school. Ellis' challenge is to learn this difficult job on the fly- perhaps its not his fault, but that's his burden now. The best point guards have been point guards for life, it gets engrained in your brain. It almost can't be taught this late in life, at least not to the point where it's natural.

The Stats:
His FG% and FT% is down, his assts are down, but his minutes are roughly the same.

I'm pretty sure without using any defensive metrics we could all agree he's a horrific team defender with the poorest rotation.

At a frail 6-3 he's never going to be able to defend shooting guards consistently, and he's too small to be great help defender (check how useful it is to have the size of Baron at PG on defense). Maybe it's just me, but I don't like weak point guard-sized guards that don't have point guard skills.

If he's young and is gonna improve, then why is he doing worse?
Next up...

The Landscape:
Is Monta Ellis more talented than Ben Gordon? How bout Devin Harris? Tony Parker? Leandro Barbosa? Its easy to admire Ellis' talents, particularly after a great game like he had last night, but put it in context. You have to be really optimistic to think Ellis is SO GOOD that his raw talent will make him as productive or more productive as his contemporaries?

His "competition" not only has talent, but has more refined skills. Ellis has a long way to go to refine those skills (better 3P shooting, decision making, defense, distribution, blah blah blah).

Also consider that undersized shooting guards are one of the most common profiles in the draft. Ellis is talented, but so are others.

The Money:

Monta's talent is such that he'll demand, likely, better than MLE money. Is he worth that much? On talent, possibly. Is there any team that can give him that much? It doesn't look like it since Philly will have the most cap space and they have Louis Williams and a host of wing players already.

However, the Warriors are gonna pay Biedrins this offseason. They should (and damn well better) pay Azubuike, although it won't be that much).

Depending on who you listen to, they might need to re-sign POB or Mbenga or bring in other frontcourt help.

They most definitely will need to keep one of Barnes/Pietrus or bring in a replacement.

So from a fiscal standpoint, you have much better things to do than to tie up $30-40M in your third guard, one that's thus far regressed and may or may not ever be good. Please remember it's very nice to have Ellis when he's a surprisingly good pick up at $800k- it's quite another to commit $7.5M or whatever per year.

The NBA has a salary cap and those rules gotta be respected. You don't have to like it, many people don't, but those are the rules every team plays by. You got to make hard decisions to manage the cap correctly, but i believe the correct one here is to spin Ellis or s/t him for the best package you can get (which may fill the holes I mentioned earlier at SF/PG).

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Nov 25, 2007 1:10 PM PST up reply actions  

oh yeah
pree might have some thoughts on this, i'll shoot him an email and see if he has time to chime in.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Nov 25, 2007 1:10 PM PST up reply actions  

everything you just said
really just boils down to one thing. The first and foremost thing you must realize before you say anything else about this, is that Monta has been used as a scoring gaurd, and has never gone one season running the team, and has not had the chance to learn how to lead a team and hone in on his PG skills. From this alone, it is unfair to say that he can not be a point. Oh yeah, and the fact that he'd be college graduate by now...that too.

Using Monta as a combo gaurd off the bench and playing him off the ball with Baron in the game, is quite different then giving him significant minutes for one whole season strictly as a PG like Baron.

When you compare Monta to guys like Gordon and Devin Harris, of course I will tell you that I would rather have Ellis for this reason: Ellis has the ability to dominate a game, night in and night out simply because he is unguardable. He is unguardable. He can go to the rim on anybody just because he's too damn quick, and his jumper's looking awfully nice these days.

When he improves as an outside shooter, he will demand a double-team, and people will be open.

Now, he has already flashed some skill as far as being able to dish in traffic.

Monta one hands the ball too much, Monta doesn't understand passing angles and so on and so on... He's going to be able to take over ball games on a nightly basis as he continues to improve. That's the bottom line, and I believe that learning how to be a PG recquires at least one season running the show, and learning.

Fundamentals can be taught, however talent and confidence cannot. Monta's got both those, so all he needs to now is mature as a player.  

This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 25, 2007 5:34 PM PST up reply actions  

NOTHING
Nothing that you've said has anything to do with his ability to be a point guard. Dominating the game with scoring is one thing, dominating the game as a floor general is quite another.

You put alot of emphasis on Ellis' talent, but that talent thus far is raw and isn't balanced by skill, and certainly hasn't manifested itself in production.

If he's "unguardable", then why is he shooting like crap? Seems like someone's done SOME kind of guarding on him.

The questionable decision making and inconsistent J have been issues throughout his short career. It's alot easier to ignore his flaws when he's making $800k, but when he's looking at making 10 times that, you have to stop and pay attention.

This isn't about raw talent anymore; you've basically dismissed the difficulty of learning fundamentals. The NBA landscape is littered with the careers of ridiculous athletes unable to master the mental and subtle parts of the game, don't try to kid anyone by saying Ellis is assured of being any different.

Ellis has done very well the things he has done very well all along, but he hasn't made improvements that are necessary to justify the sort of optimism you're putting in him.

Look again at his contemporaries, Parker, Gordon, Harris, and Barbosa. They don't have the same holes in their games that Ellis has, and they certainly aren't giving up much, if anything, in the talent department. It's HARD to be elite, yet you're making it seem like Ellis can snap his fingers and make the jump. It's not that easy.

You know that kid Louis Williams? You know why he AND Ellis managed to slip into the 2nd round? Sure, NBA Gm's aren't the brightest bunch in the world, but UNDERSIZED COMBO GUARDS ARE NOT SPECIAL. It's Exceedingly difficult to change positions from SG to PG, and it's even harder when you haven't gone to college or spent any time developing those skills. Ellis would not be the first talented, small shooting guard to flop.

If I could go back in time, I would bet money that verything you wrote about Ellis had at one point been written about Juan Dixon.

And again, the question remains:

How can you pay a third guard the money he is expected to demand?

Answer:

You don't, not if you want to have any sort of fiscal sanity.

Cash in on Ellis while you still can.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Nov 25, 2007 7:39 PM PST up reply actions  

suggestion
Go look up Juan Dixon's numbers through out his career and tell me they aren't similar to Monta Ellis'.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Nov 25, 2007 7:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Actually
I seem to recall a serious knee injury that put Ellis in the 2nd round. Would the 76ers still have drafted Speedy Claxton if he got injured in college instead of the NBA?

The contemporaries, none of these players have the quickness and speed Ellis does. You could argue Harris and Barbosa, but I would still say Ellis is a better finisher in the open court, is better at getting to the rim, and has more upside than the both of them.

I would not compare Ellis to Dixon because I do not see the similarities in their game. Ellis dominates opponents with his speed, agility, and supreme quickness, while Dixon uses his outside shooting skill, his mid-range, spotting up and his ball handeling to dictate what he does on offense. It's really easy for someone to glance at two stat sheets and state the obvious, it's quite another to actually watch players perform and make comparisons by what they do on the floor.

Ellis will have months where he shoots the ball outstandingly well. Then he will have months where he disappears. VERY common for a 22 year old player. You said it plain and clear, The questionable decision making and inconsistent J have been issues throughout his short career.

His short career. You get a free pass for your rookie season(Dirk Nowitzki?) We all thought O'Bryant was worthless. Then Ellis goes on to boost his scoring by nearly 10 points. He turned the ball over at a disgusting rate, but that's also acceptable for a 21 year old second year player is it not? This year he is only averaging one TO a game, a big step wouldn't you agree?

This year he is shooting 44% from the field, while shooting a bad 26% from 3. I'm NOT saying Ellis doesn't have a long way to go, and I don't think he can click his heels together three times and find himself in stardomland. BUT what you and many others are basically saying, "TRADE NOW, TRADE NOW BEFORE HE BOMBS, NO REAL UPSIDE, NEVER WILL BE A PG". I would easily grant Ellis a 6 1/2 million contract. It will be difficult for teams to match that this off-season while comfortably having the luxury of taking care of other pressing business.

EVEN if Ellis never does become a guy who can average 7 APG PG, then that's still O.K. with me, because he is a ball player, and RUNNING TEAMS NEED PLAYERS WHO RUN He can be one of the most dynamic scoring 6th men in the league.

OK, so say we make a trade with a team for Ellis, and we bring in a one dimensional rebounder to come off the bench, and a back up PG who can pass the ball.

Who is a reliable go to scorer besides Baron, who is almost always doomed to be hurt at least once a season? Who will run on the fast break and finish on the other end?

Take the Suns for example, they've really got it right with Barbosa coming off the bench. What an essential tool for their style of play, and what a huge part of their offense. I would not make a trade or let Ellis off the hook easy simply because I believe that he is a great ballplayer, and I believe that the game does not exsist on the statsheet.

This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 25, 2007 9:33 PM PST up reply actions  

naw
Whoever said the game was limited to the stat sheet? You asked for reasons to ditch Ellis and I've given you a plethora of them, statistics or otherwise.

Running teams need players who run doesn't help your cause at all, because running players aren't that hard to find. You point to our need for a "reliable scorer off the bench"; I say, so what? That has nothing to do with whether Ellis should be retained or not. Scorers aren't hard to find, the guy I mentioned, Juan Dixon, managed to stick in the league for years being nothing but a bench scorer; the rosters of every NBA squad are littered with guys who can't do anything but score. If all you want (as you're implying) is a "reliable bench scorer", sign Eddie House. The League will even pay for a third of his contract, hooray.

Your comparison with Barbosa does nothing for your cause either. Barbosa shoots around 40% from 3P and possesses every bit of raw speed that Ellis does; that alone makes him an even deadly scorer than Ellis. The Suns, wisely, locked him in at around the MLE. If Ellis isn't even as productive as that, then why should we risk paying him even more?

Though you concede that Ellis has a ways to go, you've never addressed the biggest point: money. Blanket assertions to keep Ellis or not aren't too helpful; I'm talkin about specifics. Ellis, by my count, is gonna ask for something above the MLE and that is why I do not want to keep him around. Those are my terms, so you know what i'm talking about. If the dollars change, then maybe my position will, but as of now...

As I have said a million times, it's far too easy to get caught up in the potential of Ellis. His performances are enjoyable at 800k, but evaluating whether someone is worth a larger extension demands considerably more cynicism.

The fact remains that 6-3 shooting guards worth $7.5M are exceedingly rare. As you do not seem to care that Ellis has a steep uphill battle to become a PG (again, you yourself said you "don't care" if he never ups his assist numbers), it's hard for me to accept that you really understand the decision we have to make.

I have never said we need/should trade Ellis for a one-dimensional rebounder; in fact I have lobbied strongly against any acquisition of a Evans/gooden/wilcox type of neanderthal bigman. My hope has been to grab multiple picks if possible...but it's not looking like that's gonna happen, since it'd be hard to convince a team to give a pick away for the privilege of paying Ellis next year and there aren't that many open "combo guard" spots around the league.

So, my hope is to deal Ellis for a purer point guard or some sort of small forward for the future to groom as a Barnes/Pietrus replacement.

Cliffnotes:

Ellis is a long way from being a PG and isn't that special a scorer.

Ellis isn't worth $7.5M annually, which is what I think he'll demand.

Ellis should be traded in some way to get a backup PG and/or backup SF.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Nov 25, 2007 10:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Ellis has not learned the PG position
Anyone who watches warrior games can attest that ellis has not learned the point guard position to a satisfactory level.  This season so far, he really has not had the opportunity to show whether he can(baron is never out, and when he is, its jax or no point at all really) BUT the fact that Nelson does not have confidence in him as a pg should say something.

HOWEVER I dont necessarily agree with Mr. Zero.

here is why

Ellis has a natural basketball ability that allows him to dominate basketball games.  We saw it the other day in philadelphia.  THAT is an ability that barabosa and harris do NOT have.  Gordon does have that ability I believe to a degree.

Ellis' best attribute probably is his ability to drive to the hoop!  His agressiveness and his driving ability are invaluable on a team like the warriors.  We need slashers and shooters if we do not have a post up game.  On the fast break he is dynamite.  Ellis provides this, and has the potential to be incredible at it.

Also, ellis has a midrange game to be envied.  Now, I will be the first to admit that it is very inconsistent. But you can SEE he has the tools, the ABILITY to knock down that shot with ease.  He just needs to harness that skill and it SHOULD come with age.

His three point shot is weak.  BUT NEVER FEAR! Shooting is a matter of hard work.  He'll get that 3 down(remember jrich, antawn? they just worked on it).

I'm not trying to write his nbadraft.net profile; but rather im trying to establish that he has value NOW and also potentially valued very high because of his abilities.  Yes  he has flaws(TO, hasnt really mastered the mental aspect) but it is POSSIBLE that this will come in time, and IF it does, it will be something special to have on our team.

Now you might be asking if that is taking a risk to bank on his potential.  I would reply yes it is a risk.  But ya gotta take risks to  be successful.  And also, what type of risk are you taking? 6.5 million?  By todays nba standards, thats hardly a deep risk.

I'm not really a huge monta ellis fan, in fact, i probably curse him out more than any other player.  However, i still recognize his ABILITY and the VALUE he has now/potentially has to the team.  In sum, if ellis shows improvement through the course of the year, and starts to consistently display his abilities, im down to resign him.

Side note: correct me if im wrong, but do i not remember a post from OZ in the offseason saying to sign ellis and biedrins now so we can get them on the cheap before they blow up?

go dubs we own the suns they are scared of us b.c. of stephen jackson

by jrizzle on Nov 26, 2007 11:49 AM PST up reply actions  

i guess
my definition of dominate is different than others'.

What I saw from Ellis against Philly was an athletic player given opportunities through a favorable system (nellieball) and capitalizing. Not someone who was so "transcendent" that he was indefensible, like Jordan/Bird/Magic, or a Kobe/Pierce/Mcgrady.

Ellis benefits tremendously from the system and the team around him, it's a good fit- i think the advantage he enjoys from the Warrior environment has been ignored here.

To be small and "dominate", you need ridiculous ball skills like Iverson or Francis, and Ellis hasn't flashed nearly as great a handle.

Barbosa is being dissed like crazy... he doesn't dominate games when he drops in half a dozen 3's? Let me find the box score for when he did that last week, he was on my fantasy team so I'm pretty sure I'm not imagining things. He benefits from the PHX system, too, but that 3P shooting ability makes him tremendously productive. He has every bit the athleticism as well.

jrizzle, I did write diaries about Ellis/Biedrins. If you wanna go look them up, you can read what I actually wrote:

  • Extending Ellis is a risk given his deficiencies; it's an even bigger risk when the price looks like it's gonna be above the MLE (and Harris' contract tells me Ellis is gonna ask for that much). It was moot since we weren't allowed to extend him.
  • re-signing Biedrins at $10M/per woulda been great, but Duffy wouldn't let us. Not much we could do there with a stubborn agent. Now that Jefferson signed, we will still get Biedrins at that price, give or take. Biedrins has reduced his foul rate and stayed on the court longer and produced accordingly, as well as reminding us why Nellie loves him by pushing the ball up courthimself a few times and racking up some surprising assist numbers for a C. Easy decision on him.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Nov 26, 2007 12:19 PM PST up reply actions  

jrizzle
completely summed up my estimation of Ellis, and I agree with him all the way. What Ellis did last game in Philly,(basically won the game) and what he did AGAIN tonight in Oakland, came from having mid-range ability(and that is special, especially in today's league)being able to take anyone to the rim at will, and moving without the ball, finding the loopholes in the D.

Ellis moves extremely well off the ball. He knows how to get to the spots, something you fail to point out that is also something to be envied in such a young talent. JRIZZLE brought up an excellent point about 3 point shooting. Ellis has great form on his jumpshot and get's his legs under him every time. He will become a better 3 point shooter through hard work.

He displayed some pretty nice point guard-esque vision tonight as well, wouldn't you agree?

I also agree that taking a risk on a player this young, with this much ability under 10 mil is not as big a risk as you make it out to be.

I would say a bigger risk would be trading Speedy Claxton for a injured, disgruntled body who could easily never play a full season again, and who is also making over 16 million dollars this year(top 5), would be a much bigger risk than signing Ellis.

Also, how do you know what Monta will "ask for" or how much the Warriors would offer? You seem to think that Monta thinks he's some basketball god. After hearing him speak about his game, I don't see a player who shares the same amount of pride as a Kobe Bryant.

Comparing his overall potential to a player like Juan Dixon is blasphemy. Ellis is already a better player than Dixon, who should be in his prime.

I stand by my position, Running teams need scorers who can run. Scoring combo guards like Gilbert Arenas, Dwayne Wade, Leandro Barbosa, Kevin Johnson and Monta Ellis can be the difference between winning and losing a significant amount of ball games.

It's very easy to say a guy 6'3 or 6-4 who isn't a pass first guard will come dime a dozen. I agree there are many combo guards in the league that score the ball who are really not all that valuable. BUT Ellis has special talents that seperate him from the rest, and he has the ability to be a dominate player, something everyone in the league thrives for.

This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 27, 2007 2:04 AM PST up reply actions  

Ellis
Ellis had terrific scoring game in Philly, but it was just that...a terrific scoring game- not a floor general game.

Against the Suns, he was on fire with his J...but by the same token, who was he abusing? Steve Nash. Standing a couple steps back on 5 consecutive possessions or so. It was like shooting free throws, so I gotta give him props for essentially hitting from the charity stripe. That'll be my new name for Stevie.

His passing was good to see, but the whole team was passing well. With Nellie spacing the floor with other shooters, the lane was wide open. The Suns were a step slow on defense all day, possibly confused at the thought of a team going smaller than they were. As a result, the ball was hopping from everyone (Barnes, Jack, Baron, Al, as well as Ellis).

So while the performance was a beautiful thing to see, it's tempered by the context. If Ellis runs a floor game like this all year, then I'll be happy to support re-signing him.

I think you've underscored how common his type of player is.

The Mavs have two (Terry and Harris);

The Twolves have Foye

The Suns have Barbosa

The Spurs have Parker (and, apparently Darius Washington is pretty good).

The Pistons have Rodney Stuckey, who according to all draft reports, is the shiznit.

Memphis has Navarro.

Washington has Arenas.

Boston has Tony Allen.

Atlanta has Acie Law.

Miami has Daquan Cook.

Philly has Louis Williams.

Orlando has Keith Bogans (you could argue Keyon Dooling was the same type of player).

Seattle has Delonte West.

A cursory glance reveals that alot of teams have athletic undersized scoring guards of varying quality. Not to say they're all better or worse than Ellis, but they're all the same type of player that fit the same role (combo guard).

Looking at the draft reveals a bunch of combo guards as well:

Eric Gordon
Terrence Williams
Jamont Gordon
Chris Lofton

These are just guys in the Draft Express early mock. I bet if we went and looked at the scouting reports, they'd read awfully similar to Ellis':

  • lighting quick
  • not PG at NBA level (yet?)
  • inconsistent J
By volume, it doesn't look like Ellis is irreplaceable.

But I guess we could bring up Ellis' heart, tenacity, leadership, chemistry, etc.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Nov 27, 2007 9:33 AM PST up reply actions  

Glanced
I just glanced at some of the discussion here, but I'll just give my overall thoughts on this.

Look, the likelihood the Warriors find/pick up a guy that can actually contribute as a backup PG to Baron right now is REALLY low. Incredibly low. The Lasme move was surprising enough and I doubt the team has another one of those up their sleeve. This is why I'm a proponent of them keeping Hudson around until he's healthy - and trust me, right now he isn't.

You all saw a glimpse of what Hudson can still do in the preseason and I'm not quite sure why that has gone by the wayside. He isn't going to be this amazing player, but for 15 minutes off the bench, I wouldn't mind it at all. And you'd bring Baron's minutes down from 40 as it is now to around 30, which is quite healthy.

With so few options around, there's nothing you can do right now and for those of you who think Monta is the answer, there's a reason that it isn't quite working out. I challenge you to show me real evidence that Monta is learning how to play the point. From December 06, when people really started noticing Monta, how much has he really improved? I've seen an athlete be an athlete - scoring and battling, but I haven't seen a player that has reached another level.

Are there reasons for that? Sure, he's had injuries, especially that neck situation in training camp, which has held him back from growing. All offseason, I was told he was working on his ballhandling and passing but I have seen only a play or two where he's made that work.

Monta really has the ability - he has shown me moments of brilliance where he'll drive and find someone in the paint or something, but I don't see it enough to think he's a point guard. He's not even Leandro Barbosa - look at the shooting percentages - but the Suns gave up on making Leandro a PG anyway.

Look, Monta's got to show that he can learn the position. I don't feel he's done that. That's just my opinion, but I don't feel like he's the answer to your PG needs.

by pree on Nov 25, 2007 2:38 PM PST reply actions  

True
I've always been pretty optimistic (maybe hopeful is a better word) that Monta will learn the point eventually, but you are right. Outside of a few nice drive and dish plays every now and then he hasn't shown us anything yet. At this point I'm just hoping that he can be a good enough all around player to keep us in the game when Baron sits even if he's not playing a true point. But then again the season is still young, he may surprise us yet.
.

by olympicmike on Nov 25, 2007 11:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Hudson
Hey Pree,

Whats going on with Hudson. All the reports indicate an inflamed hip or something like that. Can you clarify? And how soon can we expect him to be ready to run?

Thanks

by highflya on Nov 26, 2007 10:36 AM PST up reply actions  

Sore hip
Not much longer .. don't want to bring him back unless he's completely pain free. Weird situatino

by pree on Nov 26, 2007 3:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Ricky Rubio
in 2009
The J-RICH show is on his way out...=(

by dajrichshow on Nov 25, 2007 5:06 PM PST reply actions  

I'm on the
Tank for Mayo bandwagon myself.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 25, 2007 10:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Wait ...
Wasn't it "Tank for Beasley"? And where can I catch this bandwagon? And is there anyone else on it but you? I'm so confused... ;-D

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 26, 2007 8:46 AM PST up reply actions  

beasley
When I read the Draft Express evaluation of his first performances, I immediately thought "Zach Randolph": Highly-talented big man: Check Ability to dominate in the post: Check Failure to stick to the post: Check Taking too many perimeter J's: Check Turnover prone: Check Poor defensively: Check Not to say he's doomed to that fate, but thats just my initial impression. Mega talent, missing brain.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Nov 26, 2007 10:35 AM PST up reply actions  

The Myth of PG's importance
I mean, we depend on Baron for so much, but we got 2 other cats that can create, and oh they're co-captains.  So, I would argue that a back up PG is not the obvious glaring need in the line up.  Ellis is a fantastic player who is adjusting to the league learning his tendencies, that is all.  If you are figuring out ways to stop him, then he's already ahead of the game.  If Baron cannot play, Monta will win us games.  He's done it the past two seasons.  I have the utmost confidence in him rising to the challenge.  Baron has earned Nellie's undying admiration for many attributes, but shot selection probably isn't ranked higher than guts, determination, playmaking and leadership.  So, we can get by with Marco and Monta running the point.

What we cannot live without, however is rebounding and defending the post.  We win games when we play defense, create chaos, drain open shots and rebound the ball.  Nelson chooses to call out Al and to some extent, Barnes, for not showing up consistently every game willing to battle for the boards.  Biedrins, after a slow start, is again, making an impact.  The season rests with Al, Pietrus or Wright stepping up and grabbing minutes.  So, yes, it would be nice to add a quality Janeero Pargo-type back up PG or a seasoned, rebounding machine like Darko, with our trade exception, but I don't see it happening.

by eshock @ Golden State Of Mind on Nov 25, 2007 10:02 PM PST reply actions  

btw
A bit sheepishly, I admit that my "best idea" in the Original Post (getting Lowry), was lame because I missed the Conley injury.
I can plead only ignorance for isolation.
I'm currently living overseas, and, though an obsessive W's fan since Run TMC, its hard to stay up with all the news from the league.  
Everyone watches futbol everywhere else, so I can talk some EPL shit these days, but sadly my nba knowledge is suffering.

So I guess the thing is, live with what we've got.  Wait to see what THud can do when healthy, and otherwise ride Ellis.  Still, every night I see 40+ minutes next to BDiddy's name.  and that's just a recipe for disaster.  Here's hoping Nelson realizes that wins now will only help us if Davis is also healthy and rested enough to dominate in the playoffs.  
so it would be better to take a few extra losses early and develop some trust in Belli, and Ellis at the point.  then put it all out there in the last 20 games again.

But what a game against the Suns.  DUBS

by panhandlelegend on Nov 26, 2007 10:51 PM PST reply actions  

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