Free Throw Woes...Or is it something else?
First off, this is not intended to be an anti Ws, rant, just a look at what has been plaguing the Bay Area darlings so far this year. Also, I know you can't compare 5 games to all of last year, but looking at the numbers might show something: Somewhere between watching KAz, Monta, Baron and Biedrins brick multiple free throws and Brandon Bass going 4-4 I started to get jealous of other teams free throw shooting. It got me thinking as to how big of a problem the charity stripe is for a team made up of athletic scorers. I know this is not a new thing, but look at the numbers.
The Warriors are shooting 67%, good for 27th in the league, from the line while their opponents are shooting 79%, low and behold 26th. That is about a 4-5 point differential if both teams go to the line 30 times. Then throw in a team like the Mavs who shoot high 80s and that becomes a 7-8 point gap on supposed gimme shots.
The Dallas game highlights this deficiency:
Dallas 26-30
Ws 16-30
Result, loss by 5
What really gets me is that we are a fast, running line-up built for speed and open looks. What look is more open than the free throw? I know Biedrins brings the whole team down with his shot-put(which looked surprisingly good at moments vs. the Cavs), but the way that the Ws are shooting free throws is inexcusable:
Baron: 32-46, 69.6%
Monta: 21-32, 65.6%
KAZ: 19-25, 76%
Biedrins: 7-12, 58.3%
Al: 9-14, 64.3%
KAZ leads the team at 76% and missed most of those free throws against the Mavs, so I guess he deserves a bit of a pass.
I put these guys out there because they are our current go to guys. In clutch situations it is most likely going to be one of these guys with the rock and it is about 50-50 as to whether they will be shooting the j or streaking the lane for points in the paint. There is a pretty good chance they will end up at the line with free throws vital to keep the game close.
The guys that stick out to me are Baron, Monta and Biedrins.
Baron is actually a point above his career average, so I guess we get what we paid for. His scoring is effected more by his 3pt 19% avg. than anything. I just don't get how a top tier point shoots less than 70% from the line.
Monta has regressed from 73% last year, and the way he attacks the basket, he absolutely has to hit his free throws. Devin Harris plays a similar style, but he went 8-8 last night (Although his career FT numbers are only slightly better than Monta's)
Finally, Biedrins, the human shot-put. He is actually up 12% from his career average, but the way the Warriors use him attacking the basket, he is bound to be on the line late in the game. Or is his lack of free-throw shooting a reason the Warriors fail to go inside and instead opt for threes in the waning moments?
This leads one to ask, have we always been this bad?
Last year the Ws shot 71.7% from the line and I don't see how we can't get back there especially with JAX in the lineup. 05-06 was at 71.8% and 72.2% in 04-05. So needless to say, GSW recent past is marred by bad shooting from the line.
Our opponents free throws are up about 4%, but there is not much we can do about that.
These stats don't really tell us how much our opponents are getting to the line or vice versa. Info. on that would be helpful in this analysis.
So what has changed from last year?
In our major categories:
We are shooting 46.3% from the floor as a team, not bad, but our opponents have upped their FG% from 46.2% to a whopping 50.6%. That is an astounding percentage for us to be giving up.
Despite Baron's woes from behind the arc, we have actually improved our three point percentage from last year and our opponents percentage is down from last year despite that ridiculous night from the Jazz.
We are even rebounding better so far and keeping opponent rebounds down. We are getting fouled slightly more, which makes me think we are getting to the line more.
Steal, block, assist and turnover ratios are all about the same as last year.
Our scoring is up a point, but opponent scoring is up 11 points.
The moral of the story?
Obviously, lack of solid, go-to free-throw shooters kills us in the clutch. However, it is kind of expected at this point.
However, the poor team defense that is allowing our opponents to shoot >50% from the field has to take a lot of the blame. Are these teams just simply that good? Maybe, we have faced a tough slate, but we need to step up the intensity on the defensive end.
Perhaps Jackson will chip in in the areas where it appears we need it most: defense and free throws.
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
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35 comments
Comments
yes
Free throws are absolutely CRITICAL, no surprise there and I firmly believe we will NEVER go far without mastering it. I believe a lot of it is mental and look at SHAQ...even he has made some very important free throws in the clutch (see 06 finals against Mavs)!!!
The emotional high %, run-gun style we play is fun to watch and all, but like the Suns, we will never win a championship with that b/c there will always be teams like the Spurs in the way. Ironically, the Mavs give the Spurs problems and we all know the Spurs are our kryptonite. Nevertheless, defense and FTs esp in the clutch are killing us now.
by blahblah on Nov 9, 2007 3:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Biedrins FTs
Of late, he's missed a majority if not all of his attempts. During this period, the ball has fallen off of his fingertips and onto his palm, loosing a lot of the control that he had. Now, upon his release, he is hitching causing him to over-correct his delivery and causing the ball to hit the front of the rim.
It's all about concentration and repetition. They should not be taken for granted. There is no one guarding you, thus the name FREE throws; aka FREE POINTS!
by lyricalgenius on Nov 9, 2007 3:53 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
wow
by kenntoe on Nov 9, 2007 3:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Bored at work...
by belli nellie on Nov 9, 2007 4:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Just a thought
I mean look at the worst free throw shooting game, Dallas. Rotation was only 6 deep. As a team they were hovering around 70% in the first 4 games.
But I guess when you're paid millions, and there is some guy who can make 5,221 consecutive free throws not in the NBA (Guiness World Record), you should be able to convert at least 75% regardless.
by ckmgs23 on Nov 9, 2007 4:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
If that was the case
by azw on Nov 9, 2007 8:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Warriors are Wierd
It's just dumb luck that the Warriors have smallish athletic guys who, although decent outside shooters, are bad FT shooters. But there's nothing to be done about it, except for the younger guys, Ellis, Biedrins and Buike, progressing on their own.
by San Francisco Slim on Nov 9, 2007 4:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
the warriors
Streak shooters are not good shooters.
Phoenix has good shooters. San Antonio has good shooters.
by kenntoe on Nov 9, 2007 5:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Average shooting team, bad FT shooting team
13th of 30 at 3P%
12th of 30 at FG%
3rd of 30 at ADJFG% (FG points per FGA)
27th of 30 FT%
Warriors are a decent outside and overall shooting team, but a BAD FT shooting team. So far this season with Jackson out (who ironically is an excellent FT%, and a mediocre shooter), the Warriors are an even more extreme version of that paradox.
Again, it's weird that a team of small athletic players who are outside shooters is be a bad FT shooting team. But they are.
by San Francisco Slim on Nov 10, 2007 8:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Also,
by muritqua on Nov 9, 2007 4:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
True dat...
by BigTex84 on Nov 9, 2007 4:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
im still trying to figure out
by Thoang77 on Nov 9, 2007 5:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Analogy
When parity struck, however, you couldn't let any one facet of your team suck too badly. It was impossible to have a D and O good enough to overcome an inept punter, return squad, and inaccurate kicker. Your margin of error was diminished with equality around the league.
The same thing is happening now. The Warriors aren't so talented that they can blow teams out by 20 while bricking half their FTs- they need those FREE points just to win. I maintain that our style won't allow us to close the rebounding gap, but theres nothing stopping us from shooting better from the line. It's also why I didn't like Richardson, but thats another diary (or four).
Questions? Complaints?
(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)
by OptionZero on Nov 9, 2007 5:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Not a new diary
JRich / Azubuike
----
32.8 / 35.0 mins
36.6 / 53.1 fg%
46.7 / 76.0 ft%
14.0 / 18.8 pts
5.2 / 5.2 reb
1.2 / 1.4 ast
3.2 / 1.4 turnovers
and...
$11.11M / $0.64M salary in '08
Not sure which GSoM canard is looking more ridiculous these days: the idea that JRich was irreplaceable, or the idea that we didn't need an old beat-up veteran like Kevin Garnett (23.8 pts (62% fg) / 16.3 rebs / 6.0 ast / 1.8 blk / 2.8 stl).
by Sleepy Freud on Nov 10, 2007 4:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I know you couldn't resist
Still, Buike is making the J-Rich/Wright trade looking better and better, particuarly if we can pull off that TPE trade.
Most surprising part of stat comparison - Buike 35 minutes, J-Rich 33 minutes.
by San Francisco Slim on Nov 10, 2007 8:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
That said, it's kind of amazing that
- Those numbers include JRich's hot start -- which is to say, he absolutely sucked for three straight games.
- It's not like it's even -- it's not even close. Basically, after 5 full games, the swtch from JRich to Kelenna is looking kinda like an upgrade to Kobe or Wade.
Even given the small sample size, I'd be getting together with Kelenna's people right now to discuss an extension. 4/$20-25M?
by Sleepy Freud on Nov 10, 2007 1:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
no need!
He's gonna pick up his player option for $800k instead of opting out.
Then we'll have his bird rights and he'll be ours for-ev-er.
No seriously, he's gonna get his MLE money and be the NEW Chauncey Billups (the previous gold standard for MLE signings).
Questions? Complaints?
(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)
by OptionZero on Nov 10, 2007 1:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
wha?
Are you insane? He will absolutely opt out. He will be able to get at least 3 times that much as a FA. 3-4 mil? That is a no brainer for him. Hopefully when HE DOES opt out the W's will pony up the 3-5 mil per to keep him

Let's Go Oakland! Gas, Brake, Dip.
by OaktownFunk on Nov 10, 2007 1:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
naw dude
Then he's gonna that paycheck to get me a new Aston Martin V8 Vantage N400.
Questions? Complaints?
(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)
by OptionZero on Nov 10, 2007 2:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
confused
Do you really think we will pick up his player option on that 800 grand? If he continues to play the way he is...his agent would shoot him if he did that. Your kidding right? You agree that he could get at least 3 times that much on the FA market?

Let's Go Oakland! Gas, Brake, Dip.
by OaktownFunk on Nov 10, 2007 10:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i
I'm glad my Giants are doing so well.
Questions? Complaints?
(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)
by OptionZero on Nov 10, 2007 11:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
uh...

Let's Go Oakland! Gas, Brake, Dip.
by OaktownFunk on Nov 11, 2007 9:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
short buses
After they pick me up to go to the looney bin, they'll stop by your house to take you to Sarcasm and Obvious School.
Questions? Complaints?
(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)
by OptionZero on Nov 11, 2007 11:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
oh ok
Though if we could end the sarcasm lesson for a second...what do you think Kaz will get next summer? The FA market is going to be THICK with talent. That could work in the W's favor to resign him.

Let's Go Oakland! Gas, Brake, Dip.
by OaktownFunk on Nov 11, 2007 12:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
azubuike
Short version:
No one can offer him more than the MLE.
We can match any offer up to the MLE.
We have a cap exception (not the MLE itself) that lets exceed the salary cap to re-sign him to up to the MLE.
Conclusion:
He'll be a Warrior next year and he won't be making more than the MLE. (roughly $6M).
I can do a long, boring version if you'd like.
Questions? Complaints?
(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)
by OptionZero on Nov 11, 2007 12:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
just read this and all I can say is
"Hey, i'm a warrior fan so i'm naturally pessimistic." - Kenntoe
by Anomaly on Nov 11, 2007 5:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What's the max length that we could sign him?
THIS IS OOOAKLAND!!!
by Tim N Chris Burger on Nov 11, 2007 9:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
max length?
The max dollars we could give him...different story and much more complicated, so brace yourselves...
The first two years are capped at the MLE. Thats about $6M each for the first two years.
The years are limited to whatever he could have made the first year if he were a UFA. That amount is roughly $13M.
After that, he can get 10% raises per year IIRC.
Adding it all together:
5
5
13
14.3
15.73
17.28
===
$73.10M over 6 years is the maximum he can make, roughly
Somehow I doubt he'll get that much.
If he were a devious, greedy guy with a savvy agent, he would sign a one year deal to get out from under the Arenas rule. His salary would be capped than at $13M instead of the MLE and he could get offers from other teams for that much.
A two year deal for 12M + third year team option at $10M seems reasonable. The first two years are at the max of $6M a piece, then a third year we would be able to keep him or not. If he's good we've locked him into that 3rd year at less than his max $13M. He probably couldn't be too upset at that since he'd have good dollars and job security. At the end of the contract he'd be 27-28, still in his prime and able to seek a bigger deal if he's proven himself.
Questions? Complaints?
(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)
by OptionZero on Nov 11, 2007 10:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I also
by blahblah on Nov 9, 2007 5:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
free throws
Hey fool, this ain't no football game!
by J2daZ on Nov 9, 2007 9:40 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
they're probably thinking about it too much
by the evil monkey on Nov 10, 2007 7:37 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
pulse
players in the flow of the game hitting jumpers with hands in their face etc are playing at a pace and with adrenaline levels that are commensurate while at the FT line your pulse rate & adrenaline are still peaked while your body is at a stand still - it takes the exact opposite self control than at all other times in the game and is only overcome with, yes - practice. That's why good coaches don't have advanced players shoot 50 FTs, they have them shoot 3-5 after they've been sprinting to learn to deal with the physical challenge ... perfect practice makes perfect ...
in Nelson we trust?
by hardcore on Nov 10, 2007 9:03 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Its About Practice and Dedication
Guys who miss are just lazy and its inexcusable. They control everything. That's why golf is not as easy as it looks. There is no reaction, its simply execute or not.
Biedrins looks like the second best FT right now because at least he's got a regular routine going and looks confident.
What happened to Monta? He looks scared up there right now. Baron used to use his legs more now he's stiff at time of shooting. Kelenna, he's got skills, I hope he gets better. Pietrus? Lost cause.
by philsmith75 on Nov 12, 2007 5:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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