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Free Throw Woes...Or is it something else?

First off, this is not intended to be an anti Ws, rant, just a look at what has been plaguing the Bay Area darlings so far this year. Also, I know you can't compare 5 games to all of last year, but looking at the numbers might show something: Somewhere between watching KAz, Monta, Baron and Biedrins brick multiple free throws and Brandon Bass going 4-4 I started to get jealous of other teams free throw shooting.  It got me thinking as to how big of a problem the charity stripe is for a team made up of athletic scorers.  I know this is not a new thing, but look at the numbers.

Star-divide

The Warriors are shooting 67%, good for 27th in the league, from the line while their opponents are shooting 79%, low and behold 26th.  That is about a 4-5 point differential if both teams go to the line 30 times.  Then throw in a team like the Mavs who shoot high 80s and that becomes a 7-8 point gap on supposed gimme shots.  

The Dallas game highlights this deficiency:
Dallas 26-30
Ws     16-30

Result, loss by 5

What really gets me is that we are a fast, running line-up built for speed and open looks.  What look is more open than the free throw?  I know Biedrins brings the whole team down with his shot-put(which looked surprisingly good at moments vs. the Cavs), but the way that the Ws are shooting free throws is inexcusable:

Baron:    32-46, 69.6%
Monta:    21-32, 65.6%
KAZ:      19-25, 76%
Biedrins: 7-12, 58.3%
Al:       9-14, 64.3%

KAZ leads the team at 76% and missed most of those free throws against the Mavs, so I guess he deserves a bit of a pass.  

I put these guys out there because they are our current go to guys.  In clutch situations it is most likely going to be one of these guys with the rock and it is about 50-50 as to whether they will be shooting the j or streaking the lane for points in the paint.  There is a pretty good chance they will end up at the line with free throws vital to keep the game close.

The guys that stick out to me are Baron, Monta and Biedrins.  

Baron is actually a point above his career average, so I guess we get what we paid for.  His scoring is effected more by his 3pt 19% avg. than anything.  I just don't get how a top tier point shoots less than 70% from the line.

Monta has regressed from 73% last year, and the way he attacks the basket, he absolutely has to hit his free throws.  Devin Harris plays a similar style, but he went 8-8 last night (Although his career FT numbers are only slightly better than Monta's)

Finally, Biedrins, the human shot-put.  He is actually up 12% from his career average, but the way the Warriors use him attacking the basket, he is bound to be on the line late in the game.  Or is his lack of free-throw shooting a reason the Warriors fail to go inside and instead opt for threes in the waning moments?

This leads one to ask, have we always been this bad?

Last year the Ws shot 71.7% from the line and I don't see how we can't get back there especially with JAX in the lineup.  05-06 was at 71.8% and 72.2% in 04-05.  So needless to say, GSW recent past is marred by bad shooting from the line.

Our opponents free throws are up about 4%, but there is not much we can do about that.

These stats don't really tell us how much our opponents are getting to the line or vice versa.  Info. on that would be helpful in this analysis.

So what has changed from last year?

In our major categories:
We are shooting 46.3% from the floor as a team, not bad, but our opponents have upped their FG% from 46.2% to a whopping 50.6%.  That is an astounding percentage for us to be giving up.  

Despite Baron's woes from behind the arc, we have actually improved our three point percentage from last year and our opponents percentage is down from last year despite that ridiculous night from the Jazz.

We are even rebounding better so far and keeping opponent rebounds down. We are getting fouled slightly more, which makes me think we are getting to the line more.

Steal, block, assist and turnover ratios are all about the same as last year.

Our scoring is up a point, but opponent scoring is up 11 points.

The moral of the story?

Obviously, lack of solid, go-to free-throw shooters kills us in the clutch.  However, it is kind of expected at this point.

However, the poor team defense that is allowing our opponents to shoot >50% from the field has to take a lot of the blame.  Are these teams just simply that good?  Maybe, we have faced a tough slate, but we need to step up the intensity on the defensive end.

Perhaps Jackson will chip in in the areas where it appears we need it most:  defense and free throws.

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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yes
teams are that good once they have figured out our porous defense. Add teams with many good shooters like Mavs and it's the end of the game.

Free throws are absolutely CRITICAL, no surprise there and I firmly believe we will NEVER go far without mastering it. I believe a lot of it is mental and look at SHAQ...even he has made some very important free throws in the clutch (see 06 finals against Mavs)!!!

The emotional high %, run-gun style we play is fun to watch and all, but like the Suns, we will never win a championship with that b/c there will always be teams like the Spurs in the way. Ironically, the Mavs give the Spurs problems and we all know the Spurs are our kryptonite. Nevertheless, defense and FTs esp in the clutch are killing us now.

by blahblah on Nov 9, 2007 3:22 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Biedrins FTs
I have been watching his free throw attempts rather closely this early season.  When he was making his FTs, I believe 6-8, the ball sat nicely on his figertips with a nice and high release.  This helped him gain control of the ball and then proceed to get it over the rim.

Of late, he's missed a majority if not all of his attempts.  During this period, the ball has fallen off of his fingertips and onto his palm, loosing a lot of the control that he had.  Now, upon his release, he is hitching causing him to over-correct his delivery and causing the ball to hit the front of the rim.

It's all about concentration and repetition.  They  should not be taken for granted.  There is no one guarding you, thus the name FREE throws; aka FREE POINTS!  

by lyricalgenius on Nov 9, 2007 3:53 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

wow
i vote this diary longest of the year. haha.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 9, 2007 3:58 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Bored at work...
I am hoping it is not a pointless ramble, just trying to see how the FTs hurt the Ws and in which ways are we regressing from last year

by belli nellie on Nov 9, 2007 4:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Just a thought
What if their FT % is down due to the extra amount of minutes they are playing thus far at the beginning of the season?

I mean look at the worst free throw shooting game, Dallas.  Rotation was only 6 deep.  As a team they were hovering around 70% in the first 4 games.

But I guess when you're paid millions, and there is some guy who can make 5,221 consecutive free throws not in the NBA (Guiness World Record), you should be able to convert at least 75% regardless.

by ckmgs23 on Nov 9, 2007 4:05 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

If that was the case
they would have been hitting them early in the game, i think KAz missed his first 2, seems baron split most of them other than the 2 he hit in the 4th

by azw on Nov 9, 2007 8:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Warriors are Wierd
The Warriors are a finness run and gun team made up of small players.  Although they are not particularly good outside shooters, they are at least OK in that dept.  So why are they such bad a FT shooting team?  They were 27th last season, and look to be about the same this season.  As Nelson said after the game last night,"Somebody said if you want to shoot FTs better, get better FT shooters".

It's just dumb luck that the Warriors have smallish athletic guys who, although decent outside shooters, are bad FT shooters.  But there's nothing to be done about it, except for the younger guys, Ellis, Biedrins and Buike, progressing on their own.

by San Francisco Slim on Nov 9, 2007 4:07 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

the warriors
arent a good shooting team. period.

Streak shooters are not good shooters.

Phoenix has good shooters. San Antonio has good shooters.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 9, 2007 5:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Average shooting team, bad FT shooting team
Warriors (06-07):

13th of 30 at 3P%
12th of 30 at FG%
3rd of 30 at ADJFG% (FG points per FGA)
27th of 30 FT%

Warriors are a decent outside and overall shooting team, but a BAD FT shooting team.  So far this season with Jackson out (who ironically is an excellent FT%, and a mediocre shooter), the Warriors are an even more extreme version of that paradox.

Again, it's weird that a team of small athletic players who are outside shooters is be a bad FT shooting team.  But they are.

by San Francisco Slim on Nov 10, 2007 8:34 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Also,
missed FT specially the 2nd almost always is a def rebound from the opteam.

by muritqua on Nov 9, 2007 4:09 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

True dat...
Well, the Mavs are shooting 88% as a team...everyone knows (as it was in this game), that it might ALL come down to winning it at the line...Dubs will CONTINUE to lose if they can't step up big at the line!!!!

by BigTex84 on Nov 9, 2007 4:28 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

im still trying to figure out
how these elite nba players who are amazing shooters with guys in their face, just cant get it done on the ft line. if you can/want to shoot 3s, you should be able to hit 75% of your fts. bd has the same problem i see with lebron, what on earth is holding you back from being a 75%, or even 80% ft shooter

by Thoang77 on Nov 9, 2007 5:01 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

and also
this might be a good reason to get marco more minutes, because judging from the preseason, he can knock down fts

by Thoang77 on Nov 9, 2007 5:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Analogy
For years, the Niners had crappy special teams. In the '90s and '80s, no one cared because they were head and shoulders above the rest.

When parity struck, however, you couldn't let any one facet of your team suck too badly. It was impossible to have a D and O good enough to overcome an inept punter, return squad, and inaccurate kicker. Your margin of error was diminished with equality around the league.

The same thing is happening now. The Warriors aren't so talented that they can blow teams out by 20 while bricking half their FTs- they need those FREE points just to win. I maintain that our style won't allow us to close the rebounding gap, but theres nothing stopping us from shooting better from the line. It's also why I didn't like Richardson, but thats another diary (or four).

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Nov 9, 2007 5:05 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Not a new diary
But definitely worthy of a post, now that they've each played 5 games:

JRich / Azubuike
----
32.8 / 35.0 mins
36.6 / 53.1 fg%
46.7 / 76.0 ft%
14.0 / 18.8 pts
5.2 / 5.2 reb
1.2 / 1.4 ast
3.2 / 1.4 turnovers

and...

$11.11M / $0.64M salary in '08

Not sure which GSoM canard is looking more ridiculous these days: the idea that JRich was irreplaceable, or the idea that we didn't need an old beat-up veteran like Kevin Garnett (23.8 pts (62% fg) / 16.3 rebs / 6.0 ast / 1.8 blk / 2.8 stl).

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 10, 2007 4:00 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I know you couldn't resist
but a 5 game sample size?  Shame on you Sleepy.  I'll bet you a steak dinner that Buike isn't this good and J-Rich isn't this bad, and you wouldn't take the bet.

Still, Buike is making the J-Rich/Wright trade looking better and better, particuarly if we can pull off that TPE trade.

Most surprising part of stat comparison - Buike 35  minutes, J-Rich 33 minutes.

by San Francisco Slim on Nov 10, 2007 8:43 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
Have yourself a steak dinner. My post was partly a response to the two-game sample size numbers that provoked a 100+ post "we miss JRich" diary. But yes, two wrongs don't make a right.

That said, it's kind of amazing that

  1. Those numbers include JRich's hot start -- which is to say, he absolutely sucked for three straight games.
  2. It's not like it's even -- it's not even close. Basically, after 5 full games, the swtch from JRich to Kelenna is looking kinda like an upgrade to Kobe or Wade.
But OK, let's posit that JRich is marginally better (a very very iffy claim). While I know marginal upgrades in talent at the upper echelons can often be worth disproportional upgrades in $$$ ... JRich is making 17.3 times what Kelenna makes. That's just insane.

Even given the small sample size, I'd be getting together with Kelenna's people right now to discuss an extension. 4/$20-25M?

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 10, 2007 1:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

no need!
Azubuike's awesomeness extends beyond the basketball court.

He's gonna pick up his player option for $800k instead of opting out.

Then we'll have his bird rights and he'll be ours for-ev-er.

No seriously, he's gonna get his MLE money and be the NEW Chauncey Billups (the previous gold standard for MLE signings).

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Nov 10, 2007 1:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

wha?
He's gonna pick up his player option for $800k instead of opting out."

Are you insane? He will absolutely opt out. He will be able to get at least 3 times that much as a FA. 3-4 mil? That is a no brainer for him. Hopefully when HE DOES opt out the W's will pony up the 3-5 mil per to keep him


Let's Go Oakland! Gas, Brake, Dip.

by OaktownFunk on Nov 10, 2007 1:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

naw dude
Azubuike's not gonna opt out. He's gonna stay for $800k.

Then he's gonna that paycheck to get me a new Aston Martin V8 Vantage N400.

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Nov 10, 2007 2:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

confused
dude, now I can't tell if your kidding or not! :)
Do you really think we will pick up his player option on that 800 grand? If he continues to play the way he is...his agent would shoot him if he did that. Your kidding right? You agree that he could get at least 3 times that much on the FA market?

Let's Go Oakland! Gas, Brake, Dip.

by OaktownFunk on Nov 10, 2007 10:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

i
don't like basketball. Baseball is a much funner sport, with all the high paced action and well-organized economic structure.

I'm glad my Giants are doing so well.

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Nov 10, 2007 11:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

uh...
hmm, well OK. The line for the short yellow bus forms over there.

Let's Go Oakland! Gas, Brake, Dip.

by OaktownFunk on Nov 11, 2007 9:41 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

short buses
Hurt the environment.

After they pick me up to go to the looney bin, they'll stop by your house to take you to Sarcasm and Obvious School.

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Nov 11, 2007 11:02 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

oh ok
then you were kidding...thank god. I was seriously concerned for you.
Though if we could end the sarcasm lesson for a second...what do you think Kaz will get next summer? The FA market is going to be THICK with talent. That could work in the W's favor to resign him.

Let's Go Oakland! Gas, Brake, Dip.

by OaktownFunk on Nov 11, 2007 12:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

azubuike
Gilbert Arenas rule + Early Bird Exception

Short version:
No one can offer him more than the MLE.
We can match any offer up to the MLE.
We have a cap exception (not the MLE itself) that lets exceed the salary cap to re-sign him to up to the MLE.

Conclusion:
He'll be a Warrior next year and he won't be making more than the MLE. (roughly $6M).

I can do a long, boring version if you'd like.

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Nov 11, 2007 12:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

just read this and all I can say is
SAAAAAAAWWWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEET!!!!!
"Hey, i'm a warrior fan so i'm naturally pessimistic." - Kenntoe

by Anomaly on Nov 11, 2007 5:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

What's the max length that we could sign him?
We couldn't sign him to a ... say 6yr/$45mil contract, can we?
THIS IS OOOAKLAND!!!

by Tim N Chris Burger on Nov 11, 2007 9:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

max length?
All contracts are capped at 6 years.

The max dollars we could give him...different story and much more complicated, so brace yourselves...

The first two years are capped at the MLE. Thats about $6M each for the first two years.

The years are limited to whatever he could have made the first year if he were a UFA. That amount is roughly $13M.

After that, he can get 10% raises per year IIRC.

Adding it all together:
5
5
13
14.3
15.73
17.28
===
$73.10M over 6 years is the maximum he can make, roughly

Somehow I doubt he'll get that much.

If he were a devious, greedy guy with a savvy agent, he would sign a one year deal to get out from under the Arenas rule. His salary would be capped than at $13M instead of the MLE and he could get offers from other teams for that much.

A two year deal for 12M + third year team option at $10M seems reasonable. The first two years are at the max of $6M a piece, then a third year we would be able to keep him or not. If he's good we've locked him into that 3rd year at less than his max $13M. He probably couldn't be too upset at that since he'd have good dollars and job security. At the end of the contract he'd be 27-28, still in his prime and able to seek a bigger deal if he's proven himself.

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Nov 11, 2007 10:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I also
never understood how some great players struggle so much from the line...well Shaq I got just cuz he can't hit anything without being close to the basket. But Lebron, Boozer and the Jazz team...then there are players like Nash and Nowitzki who are close to 90% FT shooters. And even scrubs like Bass could make all their FTs. It's a continual mystery to me and frustration.

by blahblah on Nov 9, 2007 5:22 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

suckyness
is contagious.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 9, 2007 5:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

free throws
croshere and jackson are the only guys on the team who shot over 80% from the line last year, both at 87%
Hey fool, this ain't no football game!

by J2daZ on Nov 9, 2007 9:40 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

they're probably thinking about it too much
that's why they say FT shooting is contagious - once one person struggles it gets even more in their heads. the reverse is probably true as well, if they're hitting early on, chances are the whole team will shoot well from the line that night, case in point, the preseason. this usually doesn't apply to good FT shooters (80+) or incredibly bad ones (69-).

by the evil monkey on Nov 10, 2007 7:37 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

pulse
aside from all the obvious - practice leads to muscle memory, concentration, ability not to choke under pressure, etc. there is one more obvious but rarely mentioned facet of FT shooting: pulse.

players in the flow of the game hitting jumpers with hands in their face etc are playing at a pace and with adrenaline levels that are commensurate while at the FT line your pulse rate & adrenaline are still peaked while your body is at a stand still - it takes the exact opposite self control than at all other times in the game and is only overcome with, yes - practice. That's why good coaches don't have advanced players shoot 50 FTs, they have them shoot 3-5 after they've been sprinting to learn to deal with the physical challenge ... perfect practice makes perfect ...

in Nelson we trust?

by hardcore on Nov 10, 2007 9:03 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Its About Practice and Dedication
That's it.  No more excuses.

Guys who miss are just lazy and its inexcusable.  They control everything.  That's why golf is not as easy as it looks.  There is no reaction, its simply execute or not.

Biedrins looks like the second best FT right now because at least he's got a regular routine going and looks confident.

What happened to Monta?  He looks scared up there right now.  Baron used to use his legs more now he's stiff at time of shooting. Kelenna, he's got skills, I hope he gets better.  Pietrus?  Lost cause.  

Nothing better than "The City".

by philsmith75 on Nov 12, 2007 5:17 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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