Golden State Of Mind: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:





Golden Break: The Jackson Effect

Stephen Jackson's return made all the difference for the Warriors.  Things get trickier, however, when you delve into just what Jackson brings that makes this team so dangerous.  Make no mistake, though, the "Jackson Effect" is very real.  Here's how it breaks down in the numbers.

Stephen Jackson brings tremendous intangibles to the Warriors - leadership, focus, determination, and a little bit of danger, among other traits.  If we could track stats in those areas, Jax would be all over the NBA leaders.  Unfortunately, it's hard to put up digits for everything Jackson does for the team.  There are some stats, however, that provide a rough outline of just what a difference he makes on the court.  Tim Kawakami had a great post recently on Jackson's +/- numbers, which gives a hint at just how much he means to the team.  This is my attempt to get an even better grasp on how Cap'n Jack steers the ship.  

To get a sense of the Jackson Effect I tracked 7 categories for the pre- and post-suspension periods: points allowed, points scored, opponent FG percentage, our FG percentage, Ws' assists, Ws' steals, and Ws' turnovers.  The mix of stats gives a glimpse as to what the team managed in terms of defense, offense, and ball movement.  One side of the numbers surprised me, but the other made perfect sense.

Jackson came to the Warriors known for his shooting touch (both hot and cold).  He's won us more games with his hot hand than he's cost us going cold, but I was surprised that his return seemed to make little difference in the Warriors' offensive stats.  The Ws scored 109 a night during his 7 games off and have managed 108 a night in the 8 he's been back.  They shot .458 in his absence, .455 upon his return.  The team moved the ball for 23.1 assists a night during the first 7 games and has averaged 21.1 a night since.  As for our turnovers, we've actually been slightly worse since Jackson's return, at 12.4 vs. 13.6.  

At first glance all of this seems to suggest that Jackson's triumphant return made little difference in our offensive flow.  I don't think it's that simple.  Jackson does things offensively that don't show up in the stats.  He hits huge shots, as he did against Sacramento.  He gets us points when we hit a dry spell, whether it's by getting to the line or finding Andris cutting to the basket for a dunk.  He also always keeps the ball moving, which prevents the team from falling into the stagnant game that often triggers runs by opponents.  These little things matter most at the margin and show up in our ability to win close games.  Despite all that, it doesn't look like Jackson's return did much to change the Warriors' offensive mojo.  They may look a little smoother out on the court but, for better or worse, they're not scoring in a dramatically different fashion.

Fortunately, there's more than enough dramatic change to go around on the defensive end.  Here, the numbers our staggering.  Points allowed before Jackson: 116.  After: 100.  Opponent shooting percentage before: .531.  After: .440.  Steals per game for the first 7 outings: 6.5.  Upon Jackson's return: 10.1.  

Can one man really make this big a difference?  Yes and no.  Jackson obviously has been the catalyst to the Warriors' miraculous recovery.  But to view the change as brought about by just one individual is to miss the most beautiful thing about the 07-08 Warriors.  Jackson just provided the missing piece that allowed a much grander machine to run at full speed.  This "team" fits the word so perfectly that when you switch out a single player, you get an entirely different beast.  They are much more than the sum of their parts when Jackson joins the other 7 players in the rotation.  Their individual identities - as we saw during the embarrassing 0-6 start - pale in comparison to the damage they can do collectively, running together like we've seen over the past two weeks.  

Still, it would be unfair to miss the things Jackson does to bind this team together. He covers more ground on defense than anyone else on the court, constantly switching to the ball and playing the passing lanes for tips and steals.  He barks instructions when plays break down.  He pulls guys aside (looking at you MP) when they zig when they should zag.  Most of all, he provides the versatility on which Nelson's entire system is based.  When Nelson regained Jackson's ability to guard 4 different positions, the Warriors' defense regained the margin for error that allows it to gamble - and come up big - against varied offensive threats like Phoenix and Houston.

Don Nelson's teams are constantly knocked for not caring about defense and simply trying to outscore opponents.  That may have been true at some point, but it's not true now.  To start the season, we saw something that looked far too much like the Warriors of years past.  They gave opponents FasTrak access to the lane, wide open outside shots and endless opportunities to steal close games.  With the Jackson Effect, however, the team has developed a stinginess that might make certain owners proud (depending on your take on Atma's recent post).  

Ultimately, even if you could lay out stats from Oakland to Port Arthur demonstrating what Jackson means to this team, I'm guessing that the man himself would say that there's only one stat that matters.  In wins and losses, the Jackson Effect can't be denied.  

Read Adam regularly on Fast Break, the San Jose Mercury News' Warriors Fan Blog.  

0 recs | Comment 21 comments

Story-email Email | Print |

Comments

Display:

Your Nickname should be Professor X
Cuz you read my mind.  Back when the dubs were 0-6(seems like a season ago), many here were doubting the difference Action Jackson would make.  The arguments were basically that his stats show that he isn't going to effect the team enough to turn this thing around.

I always thought jax contribution would be more like the effect of a certain epoxy resin(glue) has when mixed with carbon fiber.  Individually each part has the a very low tensile strength, but when properly combined, it becomes a substance many times stronger.  Synergy.

Puts a new spin on the term "glue guy".

Best duo since...

by Tim N Chris Burger on Dec 1, 2007 11:30 PM PST   0 recs

Props to Adam (great piece!) and Jack
Things are just so much brighter with Jack back and even Barnes (his passing has been outstanding).

I'll wait another 20 or so games, but I can only imagine how much better the team numbers will look compared to those of the 3-7 start.

Inside the Numbers After 10 Warrior Games
http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/story/2007/11/22/154345/36

by Atma Brother ONE on Dec 1, 2007 11:30 PM PST   0 recs

Very nice post
Somebody told me that the +- stats wouldn't have a big enough sample size to constitute reliable analysis.  Well it's been over 12 games so time to bust them out!  I really believe in this statistic, more so than PER or any other stat that doesn't include winning as a consideration.

http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2007-2008&mode=summary&sortnumber=21&sor torder=DESC&team=GSW

Baron's at the top, as expected.  In fact, Baron has the highest +- of any player in the league besides some dude named Lebron.  Isn't this the epitome of what the words MVP spell out?  If the Warriors magically get a #4 or better seed in the playoffs then I truly believe Baron Davis has to be in the MVP talks.

Stephen Jackson is second on the list.  No surprise there; the guy does it all, rallies the troops, and really deserves his tri-captain status.

Our #3 guy is someone everyone should really take note of and appreciate: Mr. Matt Barnes.  No disrespect to SJax at all, but Barnes is as much of a glue guy as anybody on this team.  I say this because his scoring, shooting, rebounding, and free throw shooting are well below-average; and he's definitely undersized at PF; but he just brings something to this team, something that's hard to describe in words.  

The +- stat does a good job of giving credit where credit is due, to players who are otherwise overlooked when the "money stats" (PPG, RPG, APG) get thrown around.  SJax puts up decent money stats as well, but his +- shows what he really means to this team.

by jlagace on Dec 1, 2007 11:58 PM PST   0 recs

Perfect.
Way to go in describing exactly why they are the Warrior's Tri-Captains.
I pray i never have to use a gun again.

by ssmokinjoe on Dec 2, 2007 12:20 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

what the...
what is biedrin doing to jackson in that picture!!

by saintdee on Dec 2, 2007 12:14 AM PST   0 recs

haha
Exactly my thoughts.  I can see the web pin now...
Playoffs!!??

by PAWarrior on Dec 2, 2007 12:33 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

j-rich
the only time the cats have a positive PER is when he is off the floor haha.
we will miss your j rich

by ripjrich on Dec 2, 2007 2:11 AM PST   0 recs

great catch
Wow, that is amazing. Given Nellie's reported use of this stat (I'm pretty sure all coaches use it) I wonder if this contributed to Jason's departure. That site has stats for last year's playoffs and this season, but not for last season. Were they available last year? Also, from watching about 10 minutes of the Bobcat's game yesterday. They don't know how to use him. I suspect that he is not doing so well in this measure because he hasn't meshed with the team yet. I do miss JRich and wish the best for him. He is a class act all the way.

by warriorfaninlakerland on Dec 2, 2007 8:27 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

i have a feeling
that the cats thought that J-Rich would lead and define THEM much in the same way that Baron leads and defines our team.  Little did they know that they already had a younger, better version of J-Rich in Gerald Wallace.  I start to feel even worse for the cats when I realize that we have two high 1st rounders sitting in suits every game.  HaHaaaaaa!

by sadleavy on Dec 2, 2007 10:11 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

not a great comparison
J Rich and Wallace have vastly different games
It's almost like the Warriors have 6 guys out there... they always have a guy open! - Jon Barry commentating game 3 last year

by gsw4life on Dec 2, 2007 1:13 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

"...and a little bit of danger"
these traits also help with dating.  

Great article, Adam.

This is another great quote:

"But to view the change as brought about by just one individual is to miss the most beautiful thing about the 07-08 Warriors.  Jackson just provided the missing piece that allowed a much grander machine to run at full speed."

You write seriously and analytically, but there always is some colour and creativity hiding under the surface, making it very entertaining as well.  

The grand machine that is the Warriors.  Awesome.

by walkerp on Dec 2, 2007 6:46 AM PST   0 recs

My fav article and comments in a long time
Adam, great piece. Thanks for taking the time to quantify what our eyes (and hearts) have been telling us.

jlagace, thanks for that link. What a gold mine for an NBA stat junkie! I read (here, of course) that Nellie is a believer in the +-, and I am sure that the tri-captains owe their positions, in part, to their success in this relative measure. My favorite non-Warrior stat I found at that link was the fact that the second worst overall +- on the Lakers is a guy named Kobe! Again, the stats confirm what your eyes tell you. My friend at work is a big Kobe fan, and I have been telling him for years that he doesn't make his team better.

As an aside, can anyone tell me why sportscasters are so infatuated with the word "differential" when the word "difference" fits just perfectly? As in, "As the second quarter ticks down, there is a clock differential of about 8 seconds." You hear it over and over. My take is that it is because it sounds so much more analytical as if it were the product of those complicated quarterback rating calculations, rather than the result of simple, first-grade level subtraction.

Sorry, that's been bugging me for years. Again, great stuff on this thread. Keep it up!

by warriorfaninlakerland on Dec 2, 2007 8:16 AM PST   0 recs

the depth effect
Jax is part of the bigger picture to be sure, which is that GS has its depth back - Jax, MP, Barnes - seemed like we'd never get them all back together as each missed some parts of the early going = more evidence of the synergy/gestalt/resin effect ... a big change is evident in Monta's game thanks to Jax as well, Monta can be a scorer whether BD is at PG or not since Jax can do a better job at that than anyone else on the team ... as far as the stats posted we need to keep the context of the quality of  opponent in mind as well - if the Utahs/early losses are averaging more PPG than the sadSacs and other recent Ws it skews the analysis. No team relies on its depth as much as an uptempo one ...

by hardcore on Dec 2, 2007 8:35 AM PST   0 recs

Adam neglected to mention
the locker room effect Jack probably has on this team.  Wearing "22" on his headband when Barnes was absent was a good example.  Another is the footage they showed on the jumbotron of "Can you name the members of the Jackson 5?"  Baron...Hillarious.  Barnes...Hillarious.  Jackson...Hillarious.  The big brother is back and everyone has their confidence again.  Chemistry is huge in the L and we are stronger in that department when Jack is around.  Great article, Adam!

by onetwocross on Dec 2, 2007 10:25 AM PST   0 recs

Barnes
is averaging 3.5 assts in just 24 minutes per game. His shooting isn't always there, but the passing and boardworks and solid, physical team defense always is.

When you put Baron, Jack, and Barnes on the floor together, insert anyone with the hothand at the 2 (these days, Ellis) and a mobile big Harrington or Biedrins, the offense is generally unstoppable because the ball moves around.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Dec 2, 2007 11:27 AM PST   0 recs

definetly
with ellis or buike at the 2 and harrington or beans at the 5, that team is amazing on the floor.  also remeber that pietrus is solid coming in and backing up both barnes and sjax

so beating a dead horse but with bellinelli, bwright and mbenga as capable emergency/backup players, the only weakness is a backup pg

Alot of people say bad things about Stephen Jackson, but don't give him credit for being a good basketball player.

by norcalsoldier on Dec 2, 2007 12:59 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

0-6 start was due to lack of effort, period
I know its hard to resist jumping to the conclusion that Jack is the cog of which the Warriors team revolves around due to his defensive versatility, emotion, etc.  But, the answer is even more simple.  Everyone not named Baron Davis, played like shit.  The intensity was just not there after the blowout by the Jazz.  Sloane had his horses ready to show the world that we don't match up, and for 6 games we weren't competitive.  There was probably tension about AB's contract, Monta's demotion, being undersized with Pietrus at power forward, and Harrington's eagerness to show he was captain-material.  Nelson tinkered and backed this team in to a corner.

Now, Jack has been wonderful as well as Monta and Biedrins in the games since.  But, I don't buy that we can't win games with out him.  I hope its not the case.  We need Barnes and Pietrus to impersonate him every waking moment if that's the case because there is little chance the efficiency can sustain the stretch.  If anything, Jack has shown the leadership to the bench the level of consistency and effort every player will need to bring every night.  Moving forward, we're going to need their contributions, and I feel confident we'll see some amazing play from Marco and Brandan before the ASB.  Hopefully, they've been taking notes.

by eshock on Dec 2, 2007 2:50 PM PST   0 recs

Ad-man
Great piece, as always.

Two bits of typographic advice, only because your writing is otherwise so perfect:

  1. Double-spaces are unsightly, unnecessary, and a dead giveaway that you've lived long enough to have used a typewriter. (If you really want to seem young and hip, you could also throw in an "asdf," an "lol", or a smiley now and then... ;-P)
  2. Since most browsers don't allow you to type a true em-dash, a double-hyphen (--) makes a much more credible and readable substitute than a single one (-).
Anyway, carry on...

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 2, 2007 3:42 PM PST   0 recs

Thanks
Sleepy,

Always appreciate help with "the internets."  The double space is a nasty habit from work (where it's still common practice).  The em-dash pointer is new to me -- and will be my new go-to move.

Adam

by Adam Lauridsen on Dec 2, 2007 9:22 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

When Jax Comes Back: Redux
The losses kept coming,
our record gone South;
But now I remove
this boot from my mouth.

"When Jax comes back,"
a few voices did bet,
yet 13 tough years are
13 times tough to forget.

And so I doubted Your impact,
what this team could achieve,
but You've turned things around,
truly made me BELIEVE.

So in full trust I now follow
toward Playoff dreams of skies blue,
Pledging full allegiance
to Cap'n Jax and his crew.

A final toast I offer Indy
for the Murphleavy heist,
The trade of all trades,
Which sent us JAX CHRIST!

(ps. btw I am Catholic,
in no way mean to offend;
Just silly Jaxisms, all in fun,
Dubs fan til the end)

"Hey, i'm a warrior fan so i'm naturally pessimistic." - Kenntoe

by Anomaly on Dec 2, 2007 5:55 PM PST   0 recs

haha
Andris looks like an all star center
WELCOME TO THE GUN SHOW!

by tadams1080 on Dec 2, 2007 6:41 PM PST   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

"UNSTOPPABLE BABY!"

Golden State Warriors rookie Marc Jackson to the Mavericks' bench, after hitting a lay-up during a 29-point loss (2000)

Ad-medium-smq

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Kemp_8_small
Trading Mr. Harrington
Small
What We Need To Do This Offseason!
Patch_150x150_small
Sports Ramble on 1220 AM KNTS Sunday at 8 p.m.
Small
Looking back on the 1st Webber trade
Kemp_8_small
Harping on the JRich Trade
Small
What is it worth to you?
Small
Jazz/Warriors
Small
Unite Baron With His Twin Rick Ross?
Small
Go ahead, make my day.
Nellie_small2_small
Change the Warriors jerseys and the team name.

Post New FanPost All FanPosts Carrot-mini

Ads


Ad-banner-faketeams

GSoM Crew -------------------------

Atma-160_small Atma Brother ONE

Fj_cruiser_small Fantasy Junkie

--------------------------------------------------------

Small Hash

Small dj fuzzylogic

--------------------------------------------------------

We_still_believe_small R Dizzle

Small Adam Lauridsen

Argh_small Tony.psd

Small YaoButtaMing

ad

Site Meter