Draft Do Over

Horford below Conley, Sean Williams, Yi, and Thaddeous Young?!

Al Horford is averaging 9 and 9.6 in a mere 30 minutes on over 50% shooting in an offense catering to Joe Johnson and Josh Smith.

His skill set will make him an even more legit big man in coming years- he's got a post game thats fairly well developped, an NBA body, passing skills, boards, blocks shots, and his college numbers suggest he'll be able to do all these things at a good rate as well.

He gets no love cuz he plays in ATL, but I'd give him a ROY vote.

I think you did an amazing job.  Why OZ went negative with just one of your placements and not look at the body of work, especially after your disclaimer, is beyond me.  And as you say, the longer you have to access the players, the more "sane" the placements.

I do wonder about Gay over Aldridge even at this point in their careers.  If you had to pick one of these two guys to play for you, would it be Gay over Aldridge?  And Ike number 14?  That is where he sits on the Indiana bench in order of who gets to play first.....and last.

One interesting thing to look at is just how hard it is to predict how a player will do.  I know we have hashed and rehashed this, but it seems Mulson screwed up by not having Charolette take Noah or Yi.  Given how little Wright has played, it is still hard to tell, but part of the reason Skiles got the boot was not playing Noah more, at least from what I heard on the radio today.

Nice job Slim.

I don't agree that Brewer was a bad pick by minnesota. He's doing pretty well now that he's gotten more time. Although maybe Noah would be a better fit with big Al at the 4.

I still doubt any GM would take Big Baby that high. He still projects to be a solid role player at best (Sean May anyone?) and still doesn't project to be worthy of a lottery pick imo. Especially if Brandan Wright still available.

Noah over Al Horford? fans would slap their GM silly at the introduction press conference.

I agree that Sean Williams looks like he should have been drafted in the lottery. If you disregard his weed issues, you still have a great defensive player/Athletic guy, but he's still so raw on offense. He only scores on dunks and putbacks. Meanwhile Horford has a semblance of a back to the basket, low post plethora of moves, which GM's still highly value.

Why do you say Al Thornton was a bad pick at 14? Who better was left on the board? -- Maybe Nick Young, but every other wing hasn't played enough (Stuckey, Belinelli, Critt). You can argue that they should've taken a PG, but only Critt was left on the board worthy of a second glance at 14. But i still think it's too early to debate Thornton v. Critt.

1. Oden 2. Durant 3. Horford 4. Conley 5. S. Williams 6. Green 7. Yi 8. Brewer 9. B. Wright 10. Noah 11. Hawes

Too early who's gonna be the best of: Thornton, T. Young, N. Young, J. Wright, Stuckey, Belinelli, Cook, Critt. I'm too tired to justify my guesses.

I would bump Aaron Gray, Jermareo Davidson, and Glen Davis to the 1st round and Koponen and Splitter to the 2nd..for now. J. Dudley looks like a good pick at 22. Aaron Brooks > Rudy Fernandez (for now).
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With Gay over Aldridge. Gay is doing really well, but Aldridge is a frontcourt talent who has an idea of what to do on offense. In hindsight though, Gay is a top 3 pick at his year.

No way i look at it, i just can't justify Paul Millsap 4th overall...Is that just me? Maybe, MAYBE 10-15th overall, but not a lottery pick for a guy who won't get much better than what you see now (and if he does, a BIG IF, then i'll eat my words).

Morrison at 3rd overall in 06' was bad, but he ended up having a decent year. He did make the All-Rookie Second Team in 06'. This is how i'd project 2006 in hindsight:
1. Aldridge 2. Gay 3. Roy 4. Bargnani 5. Thomas 6. Morrison 7. Foye 8. Rondo 9. Brewer 10. C. Smith

Was Josh Boone picked 14th because he A. Had a monster game vs. the warriors and B. You needed to insert a name GSOM would recognize when Craig Smith and Shawne Williams are having better seasons?

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I cannot, cannot, cannot stress how overrated David (expletive) Lee is on this board. David Lee > Marvin Williams, Ray Felton, and even Andrew Bogut? I don't think how i'll ever see how you justified that one.
Marvin Williams is having the best season of his career with career highs in almost every statistical category. Felton is a notch or two below Paul/D. WIlliams tier. Bogut, at least i believe, still has some upside left in em'. David Lee, much like Paul Millsap, will be putting up the same numbers now as they will in 5 years. While Marv, Felton, Bogut have all see exponential increases in their production, which will continue until they level off at a much higher rate than Lee/Millsap. Again, I'll be glad to eat my words if they turn out to be worthy of a higher draft selection.

Where is Danny Granger on the 05' lottery board?

Granger > Diogu, May, Charlie V, Louis Williams.

05:
1. Paul 2. D. Williams 3. Bynum 4. M. Williams 5. Felton 6. Bogut 7. Granger 8. Ellis 9. Webster 10. Diogu 11. Maxiell 12. Blatche 13. May 14. Garcia 15. A. Johnson 16. L. Williams 17. Lee 18. Jack 19. McCants 20. Frye

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Regarding the 04 draft you concocted:
Are we talking about the same Vujacic here? Sasha?? No way vujacic gets taken 14th when Dorell Wright, Anderson Varejao, Chris Duhon, and even JR smith are still on your mock draft. Same with Udrih. Solid, but not lottery worthy guys. I'd still take Livingston over those guys...Post injury too.

Here's mine since i did the other damn ones:
1. D. Howard 2. Al Jeff 3. Okafor 4. J Smoove 5. Deng 6. Igoudala 7. Harris 8. Martin 9. Biedrins  10. Gordon 11. Childress 12. Wright 13. Nelson

I like this thread, and i thank you for starting it. I'm not trying to be overly critical of your choices, This is just my 2 cents.

Lets do an 08' mock next!

I'm not gonna point out every questionable decision you made though. I'm just going to say that you're not fair to the "bad" lottery picks of 07. Acie Law was definitely a factor in the Hawk's great preseason and he hasn't even played much during the reg season due to injuries and weird coaching decisions due to the plethora of mediocre talent at their pg spot. It's also weird how you still put Mike Conley at 3 when he hasn't had much playing time either. Corey Brewer hasn't done anything noticeable because he's a "defensive specialist" and everybody knew that, so he really shouldn't be doing anything that impressive. Al Thornton...well...he had a good preseason.

Anyway what I'm trying to say is that it's still to early to make decisions on who were really the best players in the 07 draft. Your efforts on this post are commendable though.

Also, am I the only one that thinks Marvin Williams is so so overrated?

But I think that your 07 projection is, to be nice, misinformed.
The idea that Horford, who could make a serious case for ROY, is behind Thad Young (can't crack the sixers rotation), Noah (also, barely a rotation guy on a terrible team), and Conely Jr. (completely unproven) makes no sense to me.  Horford has found minutes in a crowded and talented frontcourt, all while averaging close to a double-double and shooting over 50 percent.  To me, he  is a slam dunk for a boozer/ al jeff/ elton brand type (I'm not saying he's as good as them yet, but he is on track to be).  Physical rebounder, polished low-post game (for his age), and all around character guy (a lot like Sean Williams, hah)...In fact, the only thing he doesn't do better than Williams is block shots, which is not as important as rebounding when you have a shot blocker like J-Smoove...I think if any GM or actual NBA writer saw your list of guys you'd draft above Horford, they would see how laughable list is.
Also, you would put Granger at number 13 on the list?  What a joke.  Yeah, who wants a 6-9 forward who averages 17.1 and 6 (also gets you a block and a steal on 45% shooting) in his first time starting when you could have a 10 and 6 character guy (Granger, by the way, has never had character issues), who can't crack the Curry and Rando stating front-court.  Also, who wants Granger when you could have another 10 and 6 guy, who like Lee, has a ceiling that is half as high as the dynamic Granger who is only getting better.  Or you could have a one dimensional chucker (Webster) who only manages 11 per (on 39 % 3-point shooting), who is absolutely useless on the defensive end.  I think, worst case scenario, Danny Granger is one of the best guys on your team (or best player on a bad team) in 2 yrs.  J-Max, Lee, and Martell are potential fringe starters or rotation guys.  There is no comparison of these guys to Granger.  I'd also slide him above Monta (a million times more versitle) and Villanueva (don't even want to start talking about how much better Granger is than him).

Since it is Christmass, I will end this but I think, besides other things, ridiculously underrate Al Horford (I still can't believe you think Noah is better than him, no really, I can't) and Granger.
PS- Do you honestly think that if Kevin Pritchard called whoever replaced Jerry West (something Wallace?, not sure and too lazy to look it up) and offered Aldridge for Rudy Gay, how long would it take him to accept that trade.  6.3 seconds?  
Good diary tho anyway, good for debate...peace, dan

I think you put Biedrins too high, I don't think he's better than Deng, AI2, or Emeka Okafor. Quite frankly, I am not even sure he's better than Ben Gordon or Devin Harris.

1. Dwight Howard
- Man-child-beast-mvp candidate. Mind boggling numbers put him at the head of the class. Still has untapped potential on his post moves. If he develops a 15-20 ft jumper, i can imagine 30-12 a night. Optimistic? Yes. Possibility? Yes.

2. Greg Oden
- Still based on potential. Showed in the championship that he can own NBA caliber frontlines. Can be fairly certain he'll be in multiple all star games, but a franchise big took a knock with his fragility. Still, a 7'0'' with athleticism and a knack for the ball on defense and offense has KP smelling deep playoff runs.

3. Chris Paul
- With the two most impactful players taken off the board, a pg with true vision, blazing quickness, high IQ, and a developing jumper is everthing you want in a floor leader. Centers and point guards should always go high in my book.

4. Al Jefferson
- Good plethora of post moves and works hard for rebounds. Should be a 20-10 threat for many seasons. His rate of progression has been impressive for a mid-1st round pick. Would be ranked higher if he knew how to play defense. Could turn into a Zach Randolph in that sense, only looking to score and totally non-commital to defense and team play. But i still doubt it.
5. Kevin Durant
- This guy is clutch. Forget his combine numbers, this guy is a flat out baller. This just goes to show how much worth needs to be put into combine numbers. Nothing's a substitute for seeing the real thing. KD is plenty athletic and suited for the 2-3 right now. If he bulks up he might even be able to play the 4 in the future. He's also blocking a decent amount of shots to boot.
6. Deron Williams
- I really wanted to put him 5th overall, but KD has shown me he can be a franchise player, while D-Will...well he has C-Booze and AK-47. I can see the J-Kidd comparisons, but when it comes to PG play, vision and passing, D-Will got nothing on Kidd. But he's still a legit PG anywho. Real clutch guy who won't hurt you and more often than not will have his hand in the final seconds of a close game.
7. LaMarcus Aldridge
- Another great bigman. Not as good a scorer as Al Jeff, but also plays more D. Put 7th b/c the drop off between the PG's (D-Will, CP3) and the Bigs (LMA-Tyrus, Horford, Okafor) is far greater. Puts up good numbers, but isn't the leader of the team. Seems much better suited playing the Robin to Roy's Batman.
8. Josh Smith
- Fantasy beast. Needs to shoot the ball better at the sf position. Could use to develop some post moves. It would extend his career b/c players who rely on skill, rather than athleticism (which can decline by age and/or injury) last longer in the NBA. Could stand to be a better one-on-one defender.
9. Rudy Gay
- Much like Josh Smith, except with a better scoring touch and less steals/blocks. Still has an ocean's full of potential waiting to be tapped.
10. Brandon Roy
- Could go 9th, but Gay is producing better than  anticipated for his sophmore season and still has a ways to go. Roy on the other hand is a near finished product. A great, overall talent that is. Great player who will take Portland far. Strong leadership abilities really shine through on the court.

There it goes, my mock for the best of the best from the last 4 drafts IMO.

You'd be a proponent of taking Gay, Biendris, Aldridge, Kevin Martin, Josh Smith, and Andrew Bynum over Durant or Oden?  You must be joking.  Anyone will tell you that these guys are once in a lifetime prospects, and not even all of the guys I mentioned are locks to even make the all-star team multiple times.  Centers with Oden's athletisim, defensive capabilities, character/ marketability, upside come around once every ten years (see Duncan, Tim), and you'd give that away for Kevin Martin, Gay, or Biendris?  Going back to what I said before, if Presti or Pritchard called ANY of the GM's (except the Magic, Hornets, and Jazz GMs) and offered thier guys for any of the guys on this list, how long would it take for them to accept that trade?  It might take a while because they would be too busy laughing at the trade and maybe calling their family to tell them what a coup they pulled off.  I just don't get your reasoning.
peace, dan

It's simple.  They have not played well in this league yet.  The other players have.

I wasn't really looking at kentoes's exercise as to who I would draft right now.  But if you throw Oden and Durant in the mix, it's an intersting exercise.  The other players are proven, Oden and Durant are not.  Durant has not played well.  Oden is injured and may be injury prone.  I don't my exact draft list, under these circutamces, but for sure Howard, Paul and Bynum would go first.

Glen davis is good?