"Brick" Daddy: Where is the back-up PG?
Unfortunately, it's not just an "opinion" that BD is a poor shooter. He put on a clinic in brick laying last night that will be hard to top. 6-23! (My little brother and I could at least hit the rim 25 feet from the basket.) But curiously, nothing ever seems to change with Baron's propensity to fire away. Even though he is among the worst shooting PGs in the league.
It cost them the game last night.
Will it cost them a playoff berth? Some numbers below...
Baron IS the POINT GUARD, right? The "ball handler?" The "play maker?" When he does those things he IS one of the better PGs in the league. When he shoots, he is... not.
Baron's job at the Point is to take care of the ball and make sure each trip down the floor results in the highest percentage chance at scoring.
As opposed to a "shooting" guard, whose job is to... shoot. To not worry first about things like distributing the ball.
So why does Baron shoot so often, while his higher percentage shooting teammates stand there and watch?
Why does he dominate the offense, insisting on being THE scorer for the Ws, while firing up brick after excruciating brick?
One would think that it would start to dawn on him (and the team) that in that role, he is a LIABILITY for the Warriors, not a asset. But he (and the team) seem to have a curious lack of consciousness about that.
There's nothing like watching BD dribble down and fire up a ball from 30 feet without a single Warrior near the basket, and having it drop, like a gift, into the hands of the other team, who turn around and head the other way. I call that a turnover. The stat sheet doesn't. But those kinds of low percentage decisions clearly end up with the same result.
Baron is averaging about 8.5 assists and 3 turnovers (not counting the bad shot "turnover") per game. That's a "plus 5.5" on play making decisions. Utah's Deron Williams is averaging over 9 assists with almost 4 TOs. For roughly the same "net" (plus 5). Steve Nash is averaging 11 assists, with 4 TOs, for a plus 7.
Ok, so Williams and Nash are perhaps the best PGs in the league, and they're only slightly better or as good as Davis, based on the assists/turnovers ratio, aren't they? Uh, sadly, that's not the whole story.
So what is the REAL difference between these three???
Field Goal Percentage.
Nash 52.8
Williams 52
Davis 41.7
AND Shots Attempted.
Nash 12.7
Williams 14
Davis 19.6
Not only are Williams and Nash making over 20 percent MORE of their shots (the PERCENTAGE difference between 40 and 50 percent shooting, for those who don't want to do the math) they are actually TAKING far fewer shots!
They are letting teammates with even HIGHER percentage shots take more shots per game than Baron is.
When you factor in team offensive rebounding... Williams has Boozer and Okur standing there to gather in misses and put them back, while Nash has Stoudamire and Marion making his misses often look like ASSISTS.
Watch Nash when he shoots a long range jump shot. It usually happens when one or two of his guys are in rebounding position.
With the Warriors, when Davis flings up a brick, THE OTHER FOUR WARRIORS ARE OFTEN ALREADY HEADING IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION. In Nelson's defensive scheme, nobody on the Warriors even stays around to ATTEMPT an offensive rebound, as he sends them back on defense when the ball is launched. Thus making so many of Baron's huge number of misses into virtual turnovers.
"But you're comparing Baron with the best PGs in the league," you say. That's "not fair to BDiddy!"
Ok, let's compare him to the PGs on the winning teams in the NBA (teams over .500) in FG percentage.
Rondo (Bos) 53.5 (7 attempts)
Parker (SA) 52.6 (15.8 attempts)
Nelson (Orl) 45.9 (10.3 attempts)
Billups (Det) 44.9 (11.3 attempts)
Paul (NO) 47.9 (15.1 attempts)
Harris (Dal) 46.6 (10.7 attempts)
TJ Ford (Tor) 46.2 (11 attempts)
Iverson (Den) 43.8 (17.9 attempts)
Baron 41.7 (19.6 attempts)
(There are only two starting Point Guards in the league who are WORSE shooters than Davis.)
The ONLY winning team in the NBA with a Point Guard taking the most shots is San Antonio, with Tony Parker. (And that's probably because Duncan is hurt. Last year he and Duncan were about even in shots per game.) But BOTH Duncan and Parker MAKE WELL OVER 50% OF THEIR SHOTS! (Which is why the Spurs are the best team in the NBA.)
Chris Paul comes close to Parker's 15.8 attempts at 15.1, but neither of those guys come close to Baron's whopping 20 attempts per night. And New Orleans isn't going far this year either.
Only the dinosaur Iverson at 17.9 attempts per game approaches BDiddy for ball hoggishness, and EVEN IVERSON DOESN'T TAKE THE MOST SHOTS ON HIS TEAM. Luckily for Denver, Carmelo gets that honor.
On a seasonal basis, year after year, the teams with the best shooting percentages win the most games.
Here are the top five teams with the highest percentage this year. Utah, Phoenix, San Antonio, Boston and Detroit. Hmmmm, sound familiar???
Surprisingly, the Dubs are in the middle of the NBA pack (or a little above) at 45% team shooting.
But Davis is shooting 41.7. And leads the team in shots attempted.
So what does that mean?
It means, obviously, that there are a lot of other Warriors who are better shooters, making up for some of Baron's misses, and lifting the team percentage up.
Unfortunately they are not taking enough shots to overcome Davis yet, and lift the team up to the shooting standards of the top NBA teams.
It means the Warriors are winning games DESPITE BD's tremendously poor shooting. And until they allow other players who are better shooters to take more shots, they will be stuck in the middle of the NBA. A playoff "fringe" team.
A FUN team to watch, but a fringe team.
It's time for somebody to tell Baron that he needs to be a play maker first, and a shooter second, if they really want to get to the next level.
Will that "somebody" be Don Nelson?
We'll see.
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
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nah
Hence...our need for a backup PG, but no one believes me.
Drew Gooden?
24 > 23
WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD
AIM: Jetforze
by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Dec 4, 2007 12:50 PM PST reply actions
I believe you.
Nice post, formerlythecity.
the point is not to figure out why he shoots...
if he's too tired to make baskets, he's GOT to stop shooting us out of the game. he has all the skills you require of a basketball player, and it's only absurd stubborness (read ego) that keeps him from going to the other part of his bag of tricks that would actually help us win a game like that.
excrutiating to watch. i was yelling at my TV to give it up to Monta every time down the floor. does that sound right to anybody, that my faith in Monta that particular night had eclipsed my faith in Baron by about 20-fold? he's got to figure it out.
by 321 IN n OUT on Dec 5, 2007 7:08 AM PST up reply actions
Baron
I blame Nellie in a way for his lack of discipline on offense. But of course you can't bench baron for taking a bad shot. Right?
Great Post
I didn't even realize he was shooting such a poor percentage this year, because you get blinded by the ppg.
woah
by Getturiaf510 on Dec 5, 2007 4:33 PM PST up reply actions
shots taken vs. shot selection
"Fatigue" isn't Baron's shooting problem
In fact, Baron is a downright crappy shooter. He's got great skills in other areas, but in shooting ability... not. Only a "dumb" team is going to use him and not figure out a way to deal with that reality.
A "smart" team can NOT make him their primary scorer and expect to compete with the best NBA teams.
He's played in the league long enough to establish that.
Check the history of teams with him as their leading scorer.
by formerlythecity on Dec 4, 2007 3:24 PM PST up reply actions
I never said fatigue was making him miss
interesting article
Bad shooting night. im not complaining. get us a backup PGs and theres no problem
P.S. spurs have only played 1 game without duncan so parker is taking alot of shots, because he takes alot of shots, not because duncan is gone
Baron is "expected" to take shots...
Parker takes a lot of shots BECAUSE UNLIKE BARON, HE MAKES THEM (52%). As does Tim Duncan, at around the same percentage. Winning teams NEED high percentage shooters, and they need them to take a high percentage of the team's total shots.
Baron takes the shots because he personally (and apparently Nelson) believes he should, and nobody is stopping him. It has little to do with the reality of his shooting ability. His offensive value is in ball control, passing, creating, and occaisonally driving. His jump shooting is worse than an average replacement level NBA PG.
Saying you've got to take the "bad with the good" with Baron, is sort of like saying there's no such thing as coaching, or strategy, or discipline. Or growth.
Baron, and this team NEED to grow out of him being "expected" to be the high scorer every night, or they're not going much further than last year.
They either need better scorers (a new high percentage shooter or two, namely, a scoring beast power forward or a center) or they need to let their existing offensive players grow, and hope they can become the focus of the offense. Not Baron.
(Look at the lifetime records of teams with Deron Willams, Steve Nash and Tony Parker at the point compared to the teams with BD, if you're really convinced Baron should be "leading" the offense).
As long as Baron is the leading shot taker, they are stuck in the middle of the NBA.
by formerlythecity on Dec 4, 2007 3:12 PM PST up reply actions
growth
As for taking the "bad with the good," sometimes you just have to. Again I agree with Nellie putting a leash on Baron, a very long leash but still a leash. But it doesn't really matter how many shots he takes but where he's taking it. What's wrong with him being our leading shot taker if he's taking it to the hole or taking open shots 80-90% of the time?
Again, fatigue and ball movement is the X factor. Baron obviously can't drive to the hole every time he gets the ball and if the other players are not open, he's can't really be that an effective playmaker.
My Only BD Beef
When he does that ish and the can't buy a bucket, its excruciating.
BD! Next time that happens, don't try yo abuse your man on offense, JUST TIGHTEN YOUR DEFENSE!
Best duo since...
by Tim N Chris Burger on Dec 4, 2007 2:38 PM PST reply actions
agreed.
nellie needs to be the coach and get him out of the games at those times b/c not only does he miss a lot, but he also picks up silly fouls.
by the evil monkey on Dec 4, 2007 6:42 PM PST up reply actions
Ag
Screens and plays
They also ran plays starting with the screen, which makes the dish automatically more effective because there is one less defender, the one supposed to be on the passer.
It was beautiful to watch and definitely a refinement which the Dubs need to implement immediately. The problem with Baron's shooting percentage is that when they set up they don't have any specialized plays to run. I gotta blame the coaches for not teaching the players to screen instead of scream at the officials. You can make points with a screen, you never make points with an official. Credit Van Gundy. In fact, I love Nellie, always has, but we need some order within the free-form chaos of this offense.
Letting the players create for 48 aint great.
If the razzle dazzle fizzles from the dizzle, we preen the screen with lean mean latveen bedreens, man!
by Daddio @ Golden State Of Mind on Dec 4, 2007 5:34 PM PST reply actions
It's All Ego
Of all the stats you quoted, the one you probably don't have is what % of those fade away's he actually makes. I would guess 10% at most.
I will take exception to the convential wisdom posted mostly by OZ in terms of needing a backup point guard; but, only in the sense Nellie would play him at the expense of Baron's ego and need to be the field leader.
We lost to the Magic because of Nellie's coaching decisions and will continue to loes in the fourth quarter as our starters have been overplayed to the point of fatigue. Jax had three turnovers and Monta--well, what can we say about Monta except he is very young and still prone to mistakes.
No point, per se, in ripping Baron or Monta or Jax when this games was lost because Nellie won't take control of the team and lets Baron do whatever he friggen feels like doing. Baron will keep trying to be MJ until Nelson takes coaches him like he does all the other players on the team.
You call me ancient, I say "oldguysrule"
backups
Nellie should not play Jack/Baron so much.
And
Backup is not a need
Question:
when Jack and Baron are given rest, who do you play?
Answer:
Backups. Baron's case the backup is Monta Ellis, who, obviously, is not a PG.
Conclusion:
It's not nellie's fault he's overplaying guys
because
He has no one else to put in.
Conventional wisdom makes sense sometimes.
24 > 23
WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD
AIM: Jetforze
by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Dec 4, 2007 7:24 PM PST up reply actions
Monta
With regards to minutes, Nellie needs to design a plan outlining minutes and stick to it. And put the starters on the bench when you're up 20 in the 4th.
You Said It All
You call me ancient, I say "oldguysrule"
STOP!!!!
by Getturiaf510 on Dec 5, 2007 4:38 PM PST up reply actions
don nelson
24 > 23
WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD
AIM: Jetforze
by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Dec 5, 2007 5:43 PM PST up reply actions
"run-on" sentences
in the words of Ron Burgundy: "That doesn't make sense"
is latrell sprewell gonna have to choke a b*tch?
by Spree4Threee on Dec 7, 2007 9:26 AM PST up reply actions
Who's Fault Is It?
What would you do? We have 30 games coming up in less than 60 games. Oh Vey!
You call me ancient, I say "oldguysrule"
coaching
You want your superstar to have swagger and ego- otherwise he wouldn't be a superstar.
This is what our team is- these are the Warriors. Asking them to think twice about shooting is to the Warriors not to be the Warriors anymore.
it's probably not a satisfactory answer, especially if you're looking for someone to "blame"- but thats the reality of our squad. It is why we are great, it is why we sometimes lose.
24 > 23
WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD
AIM: Jetforze
by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Dec 4, 2007 9:25 PM PST up reply actions
Superstar
Baron Davis chucking shots does not make the Warriors the Warriors. Him becoming a smarter, more efficient player simply make him and the team better. In the meantime, the Warriors are just an above average club.
The posters aren't telling the entire team to think twice about shooting, just the guy with the lowest FG% of the starting 5(tied with Sjax). His 3 pt% is only 6 points better than Monta's (24% vs 30%) ouch
You tell 'em
Anyways, Baron is excellent at what he does. If he didn't do that, he wouldn't be Baron and he probably wouldn't be any good. Yeah he chucks up some shots sometimes and his discipline could be better, but that's Warriors "No Conscience" ball (I hated that during the playoffs by the way...). If you don't like it go root for the Spurs, or the Jazz (who moved to Utah, where they don't allow music).
by Dubs fan in Boston on Dec 5, 2007 12:34 PM PST up reply actions
who?
... the backup PG is Jackson, in case people haven't noticed, he's the guy bringing it most set up possessions w/o BD on the floor - not perfect, not conventional, but on this team with this roster the best option available now or in the summer ...
MPG
by JimBarnett2KevinGarnett on Dec 5, 2007 1:28 AM PST reply actions
like everyone said earlier
he was "chucking" up shots to find some rhythm and he just couldn't find it, so what? We all know that if Baron finds his shooting rhythm, he's goin for 30+..
Stephen Jackson didn't make a shot the whole first half.. if that persisted then i guarantee that he starts "chucking" shots as well, until he finda HIS rhythm (which he did). Anybody notice HIS FG% last night? he shot almost as bad as Baron.
Speaking of "poor shot selection", how bout Monta's 3pt attempt at the end of regulation? i think that qualifies as "poor shot selection". not only was a 3 not necessary, that's not his game- he's a slasher that can shoot 15-18ft jumpers
Without Baron Davis the W's would not be at/above .500, with or without jackson
Baron leads the team in pts and assists, and is third in rebounding. i give a crap about his FG% cuz he does everything else. Yes he shot terrible last night against ORL but he also had 9 assists:3 TO,3 steals, a block and 6/7 FT.
Unless he makes them, right?
is latrell sprewell gonna have to choke a b*tch?
by Spree4Threee on Dec 5, 2007 2:01 AM PST reply actions
You Gotta Love Baron
Should or would Nellie do more active coaching of Baron in particular when he starts pressing too much? Should he: yes; would he: probably not.
Should Nellie have called a better play at the end of regulation against the Magic? Obviously, yes. Why he didn't is beyond me. Any ideas?
You call me ancient, I say "oldguysrule"
Dreaming about Maui?
by Dubs fan in Boston on Dec 5, 2007 12:37 PM PST up reply actions
BD Shooting
If only Baron would attempt less 3's per game
stop the BD bashing plz
by BoomRich on Dec 6, 2007 2:24 PM PST reply actions
Come On!
The Commish thinks not even tho he may rely on hyperpole when true logic and insight would prevail.
You call me ancient, I say "oldguysrule"
So its Baron's Fault?
It cost them the game last night.
Jax: 8-21, 3-10 3pt,
Harrington: 4-17, 2-9 3pt
Baron: 6-23, 1-8 3pt
Looks to me like this loss was a team effort.. Can't just pin it on Baron. would have been worse if it weren't for Ellis hittin
is latrell sprewell gonna have to choke a b*tch?
by Spree4Threee on Dec 7, 2007 9:15 AM PST reply actions
YEAH!
come on guys...we all know baron's the teams most dynamic player. he does take poor shots, but he isn't stephan marberry. he hustles on both ends, works hard on the glass, is a good defender that can steal, DISTRIBUTES, gives it to the hot hand, and sticks up for his teammates. it's very true those shooting numbers are not the same as nash and williams but lets not forget those guys aren't expected to be the leading scorer every night. baron's the go-to guy and is expected to, at least in part, carry the teams scoring. the other guys mentioned have, in williams case boozer and nash's case any of the other starters, who can score night in night out. really for the warriors it seems to be davis and someone else every night (although jax has seriously stepped it up).

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