Hollinger Playoff Predictor - Warriors are 4th

I just read this. I am a HUGE dubs fan. But, do I think we are the third best team in the West and have a 99% chance of making the playoffs? Hell no.

Hollinger's name, I ate a grain of salt before even looking at the "predictor".

How does this guy still have a job?  Denver's given a 45% chance?  New Orleans 59%?  And the Lakers a 99% chance of making the playoffs!

This guy is not a basketball journalist.  He's a statistician who has taken a liking to the game and incorrectly applies overly-complicated formulas to every aspect of the game.  Once he's done that, he doesn't even back up his work with talk and will admit to some of the numbers being seriously flawed.  The value of his work is essentially worthless, and it should be treated as such.

I think the Hornets are the real deal though, as long as they stay healthy.  

The Nuggets will be alot better when they get Atkins and Nene back.

I'm a little doubtful that the Rockets make the playoffs.  Bringing in a new coach and trying to become an "uptempo" team is maybe the dumbest thing I've ever seen, Yao Ming just happens to be the most talented yet slowest center in the league.  They were an elite team before in the West, they're trying to fix something that's not broken.

     His formulas predict future success well as long as you understand the limitations of whatever formula he's using. For example, these playoff predictions are basically based on point differential and strength of schedule - the computer doesn't know that Cleveland was playing without Lebron, or that we were missing Cap'n Jack for the first 7 games.

       Keep in mind that the playoff predictions are based on the assumption that we all keep playing the same that we are right now. We're ranked higher than the Mavs because we've played better than the Mavs so far this season. Will we play better than the Mavs for the whole season? Most would say no. But if we were to maintain the level we are currently playing, we would be guaranteed to make the playoffs. I don't think anyone here would argue with that.

     Also remember that these rankings are completely objective - just numbers put into a formula. If you asked Hollinger, he'd probably say that we'll be a lower seed in the West, because he expects the Rockets and Mavs to play better, and Baron to miss 20 games or so. But all the computer knows is what's happened so far. The computer knows we've played pretty damn well so far.

i bet the people so quick to dismiss him haven't bothered to spend much time reading what he writes.

Did you know there's also an article explaining how the thing actually works? Did you check that out before issueing a blanket statement that it's an "overlycomplicated" formula?

I find it very curious you described it as "overlycomplicated"...

...and not as "inaccurate".

Very curious indeed.

Marco Belinelli ftw.

holy crap