The Bottom of the West
All of us have been consumed by the race to the playoffs, but how many wins will get us in? 39? 40? Ray Ratto writes about how the only reason we even have a shot at the playoffs is because the bottom of the West stinks. When you look at it, a team with more losses than wins is going to secure the 8th seed in the West. He goes on to write about how the Warriors are improved, but to what degree?
So here's why I'm really pointing out this article to you. We're all excited about the lineup when healthy and believe that they're a playoff team. But, is that really true? Over the course of an entire season could this team really make the playoffs in any "normal" season where the 8th seed in the West is above .500?
But nobody in his or her right mind would suggest that this lineup would go 58-24 if health were all there was standing in its way. This isn't close to that type of team, and thinking that it could be only if does nobody any good. The quintet's top end, quite frankly, is 42 wins, which -- in most years -- wouldn't be postseason worthy.
I have to disagree with Ratto here. I think they're a 47-49 win team with the current 5 and would make the playoffs. They're definitely not going to make a run in the playoffs because they need a power forward who makes all the hustle plays, but I definitely think they could be the 7th or 8th seed. I know being healthy is just wishful thinking and that injuries happen, but this is a team that is showing remarkable improvement on the road and much better chemistry. I'd like to see what a full off season and training camp would do for Al Harrington, Stephen Jackson, and most importantly, Jason Richardson. Ratto says 42 wins. I think this 5 would come up with a few more.
How many wins does this team get if they're fully healthy?
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11 comments
Comments
40-42
by dj fuzzylogic on Mar 28, 2007 9:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good points. . . .
OK. So what does that mean? To me it means that Nellie must start playing Powell a lot -- and at key times -- to find out if he's got a future with the team. The lack of a competitive "four" is the black hole for us: until we get a guy who can bang and rebound, this team will only make it so far -- and that's assuming BD stays healthy and keeps playing the way he has this year. Jack and Al are fun -- but their inconsistencies are becoming increasingly troublesome. JR seems absolutely lost the last few games -- after he had started looking like he was finally back. All three should play a lot now -- because one or even two will have to go in the off season, and Nellie needs all the info he can get in assessing who stays.
I care little about trying to make the playoffs this year, since it's just not going to happen. (Oh, I guess there's still a one percent chance, statistically speaking, but nothing anyone would really wager on.) Thus, use the last ten games as a kind of training camp -- and see what/who fits for next year. This is especially true for Powell -- who looks to have a potential upside (even moreso that Ike did, I'd venture).
Finally, as to fundamentals, there were only two guys on last year's team that had 'em: BD and Dun. And BD didn't use 'em last year, too content to pound the ball, take bad shots, and dispense with his real strengths in attacking with a motion-passing offense; Dun used 'em, but lacked the speed and shooting ability to make them really count. This year, though, we've seen more. BD has played a much sounder game, fundamentally, which has caused the entirety of his game to improve terrifically. And, though people haven't really focused on it adequately, Biedrins is an exceptionally good example of a talented, fundamentally sound player: he's ALWAYS in the right position; his footwork and footspeed are vastly improved; his hands have always been extremely good (cf. "Manos de Piedras" Foyle); his passing has improved; even his (horrendous) FT sdhooting has gotten better. Also, it's obvious that Monta is starting to get the fundamentals down, and it's especially noticeable in his increasing ability to go both ways off the dribble and use his off hand. His speed makes him a very good, if still too light, defender. And if he works on his passing and (especially) ball-handling/dribbling over the Summer, he's going to be that much better next year. And, though I still fret that he'll backslide as in the past, Jackson has shown that -- when he plays with his emotions under even minor control -- he's very good fundamentally, and probably has the best hands on the team.
So, I think there's really hope for these guys -- just not this year, and only when they add a four who plays like a four. (I'd take Varejao in a heartbeat, and he should be gettable; listen, I'd take Turiaf, because you have to start somewhere. Atma likes Gooden, though I think he's just too inconsistent -- and a bit petulant, at times.) I'm not sure we'll be able to get anyone in the draft -- unless we strangely hit the lottery -- but there are guys available elsewhere who could be had for minor ducats. Thus, let's dispense with hopes for this year; we should be significantly improved next year. And, though that's our annual mantra, I think there's a reasonable basis to think so now.
by johnl on Mar 28, 2007 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think...
But, in my opinion, that's not the point. It's not about winning a certain amount of games, it's about out-playing the competition. A 50-32 season playing only the Grizzlies is not as impressive as a 42-40 season against the Spurs.
What I'm trying to say is, I don't think the Warriors are amongst a playoff race of crappy teams. they're in a playoff race with equal teams. The simple fact is, between all the NBA teams, there are 1230 wins in a season, and 1230 losses. You can't have all 16 playoff teams winning 50 games, because then all the non-playoff teams sucked, and you are an extremely uneven and boring league after week 2.
The NBA has 6 kinds of teams:
Dominant ones such as the Mavericks, Suns, and Spurs.
Very good ones such as the Rockets, Jazz, and Pistons.
Good ones such as the Lakers, Caveliers and Wizards.
Mediocre ones such as the Nuggets, Warriors and Clippers.
Bad ones such as the Hawks, Blazers, and Bobcats.
And really bad ones such as the Grizzlies and Celtics.
The fact that we are still in the playoff race with a sub-.500 record just shows how even the NBA has become...that there are a handful of upper-echelon teams, and then a bunch of mediocre teams fighting it out. the fact that we, the Clippers, etc. are sub-.500 is only because the competition is so good. We are quite capable of being a 50-win team, but when every night you're playing other 50-win teams, something's got to give.
by bradyk2 on Mar 28, 2007 9:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
the fact that we are sub-.500
The only problem with your theory is that we lost a lot of games to teams that suspossedly are worse than us. Remember when Baron first came to the warriors, we won a lot of games at the end of that season and started out the next season very well then something changed and we started to lose games we should win. Nelson has made a lot of noise but has not really improved the situation, in fact we probably could have won more game with montgomery coaching since monta and biedrins have gotten a lot better than they were when montgomery was coaching. I have to think montgomery would have developed a half court offense and better rebounding than nelson has?
by Skeptic con Urquell on Mar 28, 2007 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
good point

Let's Go Oakland! Gas, Brake, Dip.
by OaktownFunk on Mar 28, 2007 10:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
nice
by tadams1080 on Mar 28, 2007 10:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah low 40's sounds right
by 24k state fan since 87 on Mar 28, 2007 3:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
45-47 wins.
by duggie25 on Mar 28, 2007 4:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
However....
by bradyk2 on Mar 28, 2007 5:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
about .500
Add a solid Power forward who can get minutes and I could easily see then being at 50 wins
If you are asking about this team, this year even with health I doubt they break 42 wins
by Zig on Mar 29, 2007 1:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Warriors lineup could be as good as Suns
In all, this Warriors lineup has the potential to be a 60 win team but that will only happen with a bit more defense and rebounding. The team has shown it can beat teams like the Spurs, Mavs, Suns and Jazz, so they are capable of being a great team but it will likely not happen since some players just don't play the dfense enough
by migya on Mar 30, 2007 6:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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