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The Bottom of the West

All of us have been consumed by the race to the playoffs, but how many wins will get us in? 39? 40? Ray Ratto writes about how the only reason we even have a shot at the playoffs is because the bottom of the West stinks. When you look at it, a team with more losses than wins is going to secure the 8th seed in the West. He goes on to write about how the Warriors are improved, but to what degree?

Indeed, by any reasonable assessment, the largest percentage of their improvement is the devolution of the bottom half of the Western Conference. In other words, they have not risen to the challenge so much as the challengers have stooped to meet them, most notably the Clippers, Kings, Lakers and Nuggets. In addition, the Timberwolves have risen and the Hornets have stayed about the same.

So here's why I'm really pointing out this article to you. We're all excited about the lineup when healthy and believe that they're a playoff team. But, is that really true? Over the course of an entire season could this team really make the playoffs in any "normal" season where the 8th seed in the West is above .500?

The reason the Warriors will tell you they're crummy is injuries, most notably those to Baron Davis and Jason Richardson. The gents are 7-3 with the full post-trade lineup of Al Harrington, Davis, Richardson, Andris Biedrins and Stephen Jackson (7-15 without), and fine. Good numbers to back up the alibi, kids.

But nobody in his or her right mind would suggest that this lineup would go 58-24 if health were all there was standing in its way. This isn't close to that type of team, and thinking that it could be only if does nobody any good. The quintet's top end, quite frankly, is 42 wins, which -- in most years -- wouldn't be postseason worthy.

I have to disagree with Ratto here. I think they're a 47-49 win team with the current 5 and would make the playoffs. They're definitely not going to make a run in the playoffs because they need a power forward who makes all the hustle plays, but I definitely think they could be the 7th or 8th seed. I know being healthy is just wishful thinking and that injuries happen, but this is a team that is showing remarkable improvement on the road and much better chemistry. I'd like to see what a full off season and training camp would do for Al Harrington, Stephen Jackson, and most importantly, Jason Richardson. Ratto says 42 wins. I think this 5 would come up with a few more.

How many wins does this team get if they're fully healthy?

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The Warriors don't have leaders on this team aside from Davis. Even Davis goes through lapses (in a game) of inconsistency, though he has proven more often this season than last that he make his teammates winners. As athletic as this team is, i feel like this team has too many people with similar skill sets (or lack of certain skills). I liken our group to UCLA during the early 2000s, where they were loaded with a bunch of 6'5-6'8 dudes who were are nice bench dudes and backups or maybe 3rd options at best (Ariza, Thompson, Bozeman-types) but lacking fundamentals (and i don't mean that in a Dunleavy kind of way).

by dj fuzzylogic on Mar 28, 2007 9:04 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Good points. . . .
about the "sameness" of the guys on this team.  At this point, after the Lakers loss (and even before the Spurs debacle), it was pretty clear that the W's just can't make the playoffs this year: their schedule is horrible; the Clips have it MUCH easier -- and they're playing well (winning a BTB on the road last week?).  In short, this team is now toast -- this year.

OK.  So what does that mean?  To me it means that Nellie must start playing Powell a lot -- and at key times -- to find out if he's got a future with the team.  The lack of a competitive "four" is the black hole for us: until we get a guy who can bang and rebound, this team will only make it so far -- and that's assuming BD stays healthy and keeps playing the way he has this year.  Jack and Al are fun -- but their inconsistencies are becoming increasingly troublesome.  JR seems absolutely lost the last few games -- after he had started looking like he was finally back.  All three should play a lot now -- because one or even two will have to go in the off season, and Nellie needs all the info he can get in assessing who stays.  

I care little about trying to make the playoffs this year, since it's just not going to happen.  (Oh, I guess there's still a one percent chance, statistically speaking, but nothing anyone would really wager on.)  Thus, use the last ten games as a kind of training camp -- and see what/who fits for next year.  This is especially true for Powell -- who looks to have a potential upside (even moreso that Ike did, I'd venture).

Finally, as to fundamentals, there were only two guys on last year's team that had 'em: BD and Dun.  And BD didn't use 'em last year, too content to pound the ball, take bad shots, and dispense with his real strengths in attacking with a motion-passing offense; Dun used 'em, but lacked the speed and shooting ability to make them really count.  This year, though, we've seen more.  BD has played a much sounder game, fundamentally, which has caused the entirety of his game to improve terrifically.  And, though people haven't really focused on it adequately, Biedrins is an exceptionally good example of a talented, fundamentally sound player: he's ALWAYS in the right position; his footwork and footspeed are vastly improved; his hands have always been extremely good (cf. "Manos de Piedras" Foyle); his passing has improved; even his (horrendous) FT sdhooting has gotten better.  Also, it's obvious that Monta is starting to get the fundamentals down, and it's especially noticeable in his increasing ability to go both ways off the dribble and use his off hand.  His speed makes him a very good, if still too light, defender.  And if he works on his passing and (especially) ball-handling/dribbling over the Summer, he's going to be that much better next year.  And, though I still fret that he'll backslide as in the past, Jackson has shown that -- when he plays with his emotions under even minor control -- he's very good fundamentally, and probably has the best hands on the team.  

So, I think there's really hope for these guys -- just not this year, and only when they add a four who plays like a four. (I'd take Varejao in a heartbeat, and he should be gettable; listen, I'd take Turiaf, because you have to start somewhere.  Atma likes Gooden, though I think he's just too inconsistent -- and a bit petulant, at times.)  I'm not sure we'll be able to get anyone in the draft -- unless we strangely hit the lottery -- but there are guys available elsewhere who could be had for minor ducats. Thus, let's dispense with hopes for this year; we should be significantly improved next year.  And, though that's our annual mantra, I think there's a reasonable basis to think so now.

by johnl on Mar 28, 2007 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think...
That we are a mid 40s, pushing 50 team if completely healthy.

But, in my opinion, that's not the point.  It's not about winning a certain amount of games, it's about out-playing the competition. A 50-32 season playing only the Grizzlies is not as impressive as a 42-40 season against the Spurs.

What I'm trying to say is, I don't think the Warriors are amongst a playoff race of crappy teams.  they're in a playoff race with equal teams.  The simple fact is, between all the NBA teams, there are 1230 wins in a season, and 1230 losses.  You can't have all 16 playoff teams winning 50 games, because then all the non-playoff teams sucked, and you are an extremely uneven and boring league after week 2.

The NBA has 6 kinds of teams:
Dominant ones such as the Mavericks, Suns, and Spurs.
Very good ones such as the Rockets, Jazz, and Pistons.
Good ones such as the Lakers, Caveliers and Wizards.
Mediocre ones such as the Nuggets, Warriors and Clippers.
Bad ones such as the Hawks, Blazers, and Bobcats.
And really bad ones such as the Grizzlies and Celtics.

The fact that we are still in the playoff race with a sub-.500 record just shows how even the NBA has become...that there are a handful of upper-echelon teams, and then a bunch of mediocre teams fighting it out.  the fact that we, the Clippers, etc. are sub-.500 is only because the competition is so good. We are quite capable of being a 50-win team, but when every night you're playing other 50-win teams, something's got to give.

by bradyk2 on Mar 28, 2007 9:41 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

the fact that we are sub-.500
"the fact that we, the Clippers, etc. are sub-.500 is only because the competition is so good. We are quite capable of being a 50-win team, but when every night you're playing other 50-win teams, something's got to give"

    The only problem with your theory is that we lost a lot of games to teams that suspossedly are worse than us. Remember when Baron first came to the warriors, we won a lot of games at the end of that season and started out the next season very well then something changed and we started to lose games we should win. Nelson has made a lot of noise but has not really improved the situation, in fact we probably could have won more game with montgomery coaching since monta and biedrins have gotten a lot better than they were when montgomery was coaching. I have to think montgomery would have developed a half court offense and better rebounding than nelson has?

by Skeptic con Urquell on Mar 28, 2007 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

good point
good point brady...often overlooked. Teams in the West play other Western teams 3-4 times per season. Of course they can't all be 50 win teams, not rocket science and doesn't make them horrible teams. Just shows you how incredibly tough the upper echelon of the west is.

Let's Go Oakland! Gas, Brake, Dip.

by OaktownFunk on Mar 28, 2007 10:04 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

nice
you guys bring up really good points. The West is a beast. I agree that fully healthy, we would have more wins. We still have matchup problems with certain teams, and have issues that need to be addressed (anyone who can rebound besides Beans), but being in a very difficult Western conference doesn't help. That being said, I think we have improved a lot.

by tadams1080 on Mar 28, 2007 10:35 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

yeah low 40's sounds right
i say we could be a high 40-low 50 win team if they were in the EAST but face it they play in the west. they have a tough schedule no matter what every year untill the east goes back to be dominant. but yeah this team healthy is good. but that spurs loss showed that we wont be winning alot if we have to play teams like that 4 times X 6 for the other upper teams. though we could get a couple games out of them they will have a hard time till the team changes and finally becomes patient to let the people develope and not just let them go year after year. :(

by 24k state fan since 87 on Mar 28, 2007 3:18 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

45-47 wins.
Rollin into the playoffs like a fat guy rolls into McDonalds!

by duggie25 on Mar 28, 2007 4:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

However....
also in discussing us/playoffs/sub-.500 teams making the playoffs, injuries do need to be addressed. I do think we'd be solidly in 7th or 8th if J-Rich and Baron had stayed healthy. I also think the Nuggets would be solidly in 7th or 8th if AI and Melo had more time together, and melo didn't have a suspension, and I think the Clipps would have that spot were it not for Cassell and Livingston injuries...

by bradyk2 on Mar 28, 2007 5:39 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

about .500
but I would like to comment that next year you have a more experienced Monta and AB

Add a solid Power forward who can get minutes and I could easily see then being at 50 wins

If you are asking about this team, this year even with health I doubt they break 42 wins

by Zig on Mar 29, 2007 1:21 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Warriors lineup could be as good as Suns
If you look at the lineups of the warriors and the Suns, they are similar. Amare is better than Biedrins at this point but Biedrins has come leaps and bounds in 1 year. He can do alittle more offensively than what he is allowed to do and will only get better in that department. Harrington is the weaklink here as he can shoot from the outside like marion but doesn't play much defense and doesn't rebound as good. Harrington could however, get better at rebounding at least and maybe become something like the PF the team needs. SJackson is like Diaw in that he can create a bit, pass well, score well and play decent defense but he is les of a rebounder and a much better outside shooter. JRich is what makes the difference as he is much better than Bell, who can play defense better than JRich right now and maybe shoots more threes (not necessarily better at it) but JRich creates better, rebounds better and scores better in many more ways. Baron and Nash I'd like to call a tie, though baron rebounds better and plays defense a bit better.

In all, this Warriors lineup has the potential to be a 60 win team but that will only happen with a bit more defense and rebounding. The team has shown it can beat teams like the Spurs, Mavs, Suns and Jazz, so they are capable of being a great team but it will likely not happen since some players just don't play the dfense enough

by migya on Mar 30, 2007 6:52 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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