RECAP: NBA Lottery 2007 - Tank That!

by Fantasy Junkie on May 23, 2007 1:37 PM PDT in News

The Oden-Durant Sweepstakes are over. Here are the winners and losers.

Winners - Dreams Come True

This year's R.O.Y. could be welcoming next year's R.O.Y.

Portland
Greg Oden, pack your bags for Portland. Life is good if you're a Blazer fan right now. Your young team improved a lot last year and put together a nice end of season run. With just a 5% chance for the top pick in the 2007 NBA draft lottery, Portland now has had a dream come true. Sure, they have their choice between Oden and Durant, but I see them taking Oden to be that defensive presence who will eventually blossom offensively. They have enough offense right now with Roy and Randolph, 2 potential 20 point scorers. If you want to talk about good young talent, Portland has it, Oden, Roy, Aldridge, and Jack. All were recent draft picks and are going to make Portland a force to be reckoned possibly next year, but definitely in the many years to come. Check out our good friends over at Blazers Edge for more coverage and a letter to the commissioner.

These things don't happen to Portland.

But it did.

We won! We won!

Seattle
Kevin Durant, I hope you enjoy Seattle. They're rejoicing in Seattle not only because they just won the 2 prize lottery, but this may help keep the team in Seattle. If they move to Oklahoma City, that would be devastating. Hopefully Durant's potential star power will keep the franchise in Seattle. He'll bring more fans to the arena and I bet the season ticket representatives will be very busy today taking new orders. The real question is, how does this team get better? Rashard Lewis is probably gone as he's a restricted free agent. Durant is probably going to be better than Lewis, but there are still big holes on that roster. If the management realizes that they're going to lose him, they better work out a sign and trade because you can't let that kind of talent leave for nothing in return. If the management keeps Lewis, they'll have 3 potential 20 point scorers on the roster, but still won't play any defense. They might score a lot more, but they're trading in the defense of Collison/Wilcox for the defense of Durant, a downgrade. In the long run, the Sonics have another star on their hands and the combo of Ray-Ray and Durant is going to be lethal.

Atlanta
If Atlanta's pick was outside the top 3, they lose their pick to the Suns. By earning the #3 spot in the draft, they narrowly escaped losing their pick. They'll most likely screw up the #3 pick anyways, but you never know. To make their team even stronger, they get to keep the Pacers #11 pick in the trade that sent Al Harrington to the Pacers. So, armed with the #3 and #11 picks in what is billed as one of the strongest drafts ever, the Hawks could have some major talent coming in.

David Stern
Is this a message from The Commish to teams thinking about tanking the season? If you tank the season, to get a top pick, you will not be rewarded. In one of the most hyped lotteries since Yao Ming and before that Tim Duncan, the winners were not one of the 3 worst teams. Stern might have got some flack if one of the teams that tanked it won the whole thing. Maybe it was luck, but by not rewarding the teams that tanked it, I think it's a good message in upcoming seasons that tanking doesn't always help your team.

Losers - Nightmares

We now have a new logo for the NBA Draft

Grizzlies
What a sad day for Memphis fans. The worst possible scenario happened, they ended up with the lowest possible pick, #4. How will the fans recover? They'll still have a shot at some excellent talent, but they didn't get the franchise player they were dreaming about. I just hope they don't screw up The Yi Movement and take our favorite overseas prospect. If they team up a talented SF or PF from this draft with Gasol and Miller, you still have a very competitive team.

Bucks
Outside of Bucks fans, does anyone really care about the Bucks? No? Okay. From top 3 pick to #6. Michael Redd, you should have gone to Cleveland to play with LeBron instead of staying in Milwaukee. They'll still get a baller at #6. In fact Corey Brewer might just be there and he would fit nicely into where Bobby Simmons was supposed to. Mo Williams, Redd, Brewer, Bogut, Villanueva. Gotta like that lineup especially in the East.

Pacers
Any NBA team with Mike Dunleavy Jr. is going to be a loser, but this isn't the reason this time. The Pacers no longer have a draft pick in this year's loaded draft. Smart move. I'm sure they expected to be in the playoffs when they made the deal with Atlanta for Al Harrington in exchange for their pick. Now they're stuck looking in from the outside like a kid with his face pressed against the glass of a candy store. Fire Walsh and Bird. Those guys set the franchise back a couple years with their boneheaded trade for the Dunmurphy Sisters. Thank you Indiana and Free JO! (Also, Indy Cornrows, another SB Nation Hoops blog, can't be too happy about not having a pick).

Boo Hoo. Let me go pout. I can't be successful without Oden or Durant.

Celtics
Lastly and perhaps most entertaining from my point of view, the Celtics got screwed. All the Boston hype, all the Boston woe is me, all the East Coast bias, shattered. They were banking on this draft to get a franchise player, the hopes and dreams of an entire franchise on being in the top 2 picks. They lost out on Tim Duncan and now they lose out on Oden and Durant. What did they lose, 19 in a row? Except for Al Jefferson, which one of those young guys do you really want? Gerald Green? Rajon Rondo? Ryan Gomes? Actually I'll take Leon Powe because he's a local guy. Haha. Fire Ainge. Take back Doc Rivers' contract extension. Oh and there needs to be a free P-squared (Paul Pierce) movement much like the Free KG Movement. The guy is The Truth and deserves to actually play on a team that competes not tanks. Can the media stop covering the Celtics now? NOBODY CARES! (Except for fellow SB Nation blog Green Bandwagon, check them out!)

Mock Draft

Now that the order is finally set, mock drafts will pop up all over the place. One of the more popular ones is NBA Draft.net.

#1: Greg Oden (Portland)
#2: Kevin Durant (Seattle)
#3: Brandan Wright (Atlanta)
... #18: Rudy Fernandez (Golden State)

Drop your Winners and Losers for the draft in the comments

Update: The Bill Simmons article I was waiting for: Welcome to the Next Decade of Discontent

Patrick the Bartender (one of the greats) stopped by for some Ping-Pong ball commiseration and offered the obligatory "Christ, what do we do now?" question. It lingered in the air like a stale fart. None of us knew what to say.

The thing that really kills me? I thought we were going to win. I really did. I was feeling it. Yesterday in downtown Boston, the sun was shining and the sky seemed especially blue. Dad and I walked through the park in Boston Common on our way to lunch and I remember saying, "What a nice day, something good is going to happen." It felt like having a baby all over again -- I just wanted to get it over with, and whatever happened, I knew my life would never be the same.

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Comments

i cant believe it

Portland could easily become a playoff team even before this, now they are going to go crazy good! geez 3-4 years they could be the team that everyone will be peeing in there pants by the time they get to the arena. why out of all years we make the playoffs and not get into the lottery this happens?

by 24k state fan since 87 on May 23, 2007 1:47 PM PDT 0 recs

thadeus young or rudy fernandez...

i think we go with talent not what we need... we get what we need from FA. we have a bad history of drafting of team needs instead of talent.

gdubb

by gogomaplata on May 23, 2007 1:52 PM PDT 0 recs

Celtics = Losers

It's fabulous that the Celtcs didn't win the lottery.

I'm sick of:

the undeserved media attention they get
people failing to realize that the Celtics aren't a big market team (the NBA's better off with the Warriors being successful)
their "woe is me" local media and fans
the fact that clueless guys like Danny Ainge have a GM position, but I don't
their obvious tanking
the East Coast bias prevalent in hoops

I hate to say it, but the league is big losers in this lottery for the simple fact that the West just keeps getting stronger and East stays the Leastern Conference. Still, it's good to see that the Celts, Grizz, and Bucks weren't rewarded for their silly tank jobs.

by Atma Brother ONE on May 23, 2007 3:03 PM PDT 0 recs

the contradictions of sports analysts

and the obvious east coast bias. Case in point, if anyone watched ESPN earlier this morning or last night, their NBA analyst roundtable discussion featuring jon barry, mike wilbon, and finally David Robinson, would have noticed the inherent contradiction between the supposed "flawed" lottery system that denies parity and their overt pouting informed by their east coast bias. wilbon, who i generally agree with, and many other all of a sudden critic of the NBA lottery decry that the system is "flawed" because teams who have the worst record will never improve because they don't have the top picks ... it should be the NFL blah blah blah. INTERESTINGLY, Wilbon's definition of LOSERS of the lottery were Philadelphia, New York, AND Boston. What about Memphis AND Atlanta? Wilbon NOR Barry mentioned Atlanta or Memphis is their explanation of the supposedly "flawed" system. Wilbon's justification fell back on "I-95 corridor (eastern border) is the CRADLE of hoops!" If that's not east coast bias, i don't know what is. I believe it was David Robinson who then said: "well, the NBA is pretty good in marketing players no matter the market..." This all fits with Stern's shocking -- to me -- admittance that 7 game series are to PREVENT upsets. Its evident that the NBA could care less about parity; their main goal is making money in ways that intend to reduce PARITY at all. Another thing, where were folks up in arms about the lottery as a flawed system before this? What about Houston just years ago leapfrogging from 5 to pick number 1, a draft where we got dunleavy... its odd that nobody said anything about that draft and the suspicions given that Olajuwan had JUST retired. In any case, the NBA is evidently something that is highly regulated, or NEEDS to be regulated based on the economics as we've begun to see in all these off season grumblings from the playoffs to the draft. Furthermore, the nostalgia , romanticism, or entitlement that east coast teams have/get because of their storied history of big men and top teams needs to stop. The Celtics, like the Warriors, have not been relevant since hte EARLY 90s... this is now. If Stern is interested in making some serious dough, he should consider developing different markets than relying on some outdated model from the late eighties. Sorry, watching all this crap from TV sports analysts has me fumed!!!

by dj fuzzylogic on May 23, 2007 7:04 PM PDT up 0 recs

I think there is an East Coast Bias

in all sports reporting

by Zig on May 23, 2007 7:32 PM PDT up 0 recs

Word...

totally. I wish they would just admit to it (which they sort of have) and just stop using the "parity" argument, which it totally isn't. It's pretty hilarious how upstart teams and lucky picks have cause a maelstorm of unease and anxiety of the state of the NBA.

by dj fuzzylogic on May 23, 2007 7:57 PM PDT up 0 recs

How do you measure big market?

To me the Boston metro (about 4.5 million) is in there plus the Celtics are a pretty storied franchise having fans all over NE and the US really

Anyone over 30 either followed the Lakers or the Celtics in their hayday. I hate what they have become

Anyhow I do think we can all agree that Portland and Seattle are small market and this is not good for the NBA

At least nobody can claim consipracy. Think if the Knicks got the first pick.

by Zig on May 23, 2007 7:30 PM PDT up 0 recs

is it really not good for the NBA?

Seattle and Portland dominated (well, dominated might be an exaggeration) the 90s and Portland into the dawn on the new millenium. Building markets is what capitalism is all about right? why not share the love???

by dj fuzzylogic on May 23, 2007 8:02 PM PDT up 0 recs

Just not big markets with

a lot of people and these teams have zero appeal outside of their towns.

Also they are West Coast so the games are always on late East coast time

All and all the NBA hates this

by Zig on May 24, 2007 9:00 AM PDT up 0 recs

Very nice.

I'm glad Hawks got the #3. If I were them though, I'd trade down to get a veteran and a future pick(s). Then draft Acie Law... I don't know why they would need Brandan Wright when they already have Marvin Williams(oh god), not to mention Tyra Banks forehead Sheldan Williams.

They really need a good point guard. Honestly, I'd draft Acie Law over Mike Conley because he seems more experienced and for his repuation as a clutch player.

by MVP on May 23, 2007 3:56 PM PDT 0 recs

i would agree

though shelden isn't that good, however they need help in the guard position! They are going to be a sick team soon, i used to love the hawks with dikembe, mookie and steve smith

by djchuckdeez on May 23, 2007 4:14 PM PDT up 0 recs

The biggest draft winner...

Is Greg Oden. He will most likely end up in Portland, which will bring him joy for many reasons.
-they are a team headed in the right direction.
-Portland is a nice city.
-They have an all-rookie center already to help him when he struggles.
-they have a young budding star in Brandon Roy, so Oden will not be expected to carry the team on his back.

I'd say Portland just built themselves the equivalent of the Dubs Monta/Andris duo...

by bradyk2 on May 23, 2007 5:12 PM PDT 0 recs

I wish

I'd say Portland just built themselves the equivalent of the Dubs Monta/Andris duo...

I wish man. Oden will eat Andris alive. ROY is going to be much better than Monta in their primes.

Neither Monta nor Andris (as they are right now) would probably get drafted top 5 or even 7 in this draft.

by Atma Brother ONE on May 23, 2007 5:17 PM PDT up 0 recs

Really?

Obviously, I agree that Oden > Biedrins, but I'd have to think AB would be a solid #3 pick after the first two. Wouldn't you rather have an athletic 21 y.o. 7-footer who's already a proven starter in the NBA (was averaging a double-double, and Top 10 in blocks and FG%, before his late-season benching) than Brandan Wright or Al Horford?

As for Monta:. I could see him as the first guard to go in the draft -- maybe #5-8 range, depending on team's needs?

That said, Roy/Oden v. Biedrins/Monta isn't even a question. Even if Roy blows his knee out -- always a concern with him -- it's not a question. Guys like Oden come around twice a decade or so.

by Sleepy Freud on May 23, 2007 5:42 PM PDT up 0 recs

Good thoughts

I'd take Yi and Horford over Andris. I'm in the minority here, but I really don't think Andris is going to get that much better than he is already. I'm pulling for him of course, but he has a long, long, long way to go. Teams really figured him out at the end of the season and he reverted back to the one minute man. Let's not forget that Andris led the league in fouls and his ugly shooting form didn't change one bit.

As for Monta, I haven't really seen enough of Law or Conley to say who's the best PG. I think he got exposed big time in the playoffs though.

Warrior fans are vastly overrating Monta and Biedrins. I'm even more worried that Mullin is going to greatly overrate their value this summer as well.

by Atma Brother ONE on May 23, 2007 6:17 PM PDT up 0 recs

Couldn't have been more well put....

Biedrins' hype reminds me of the hype that surrounded Samuel Dalembert a few years back when he started getting major minutes. The guy crashed the boards, put back shots and was a great shot blocker. Who would've known that he hit his ceiling then? Biedrins made some major improvements but I would wait to see if he can take the next step into becoming a post presence.

Monta's the same deal. undersized scoring combo guards are a dime a dozen in this league. The thing that would make Monta special is if he actually became a PG. like I said, you can pick up quick combo guard types anywhere.

If the right trade came along ( ahem KG, ahem) losing Monta and or beans wouldn't be too bad. The question comes down to this, with the West now, already being stacked and getting an infusion of talent, do you believe that Monta and Beans, 5 years from now will be the top players in the West? From what I see now, the answer is no.

by ThermoElectro on May 23, 2007 6:46 PM PDT up 0 recs

Agree to a point

But I think you're underselling their upside. They're both 21 y.o. kids. If Biedrins puts on some muscle, learns a few more post moves, and develops a reliable 10-12 ft. jumper, or if Monta learns to run an offense and not turn the ball over so much, either of them could be Top 15-type players. Certainly, those are big ifs; and NBA history is littered with examples like Sam Dalembert. But we were talking about where they'd fall in the draft, not whether you'd deal them for Garnett. The only bar Biedrins had to clear was "would you take him over Yi, Horford, or Brandan Wright." Based on his age, attitude, physical gifts, and the glimmers he's shown so far, I personally would.

There's no doubt we all overrate our guys, but I think expecting at least moderate improvement from Monta and Biedrins is pretty reasonable. What's less reasonable is the to expect the same kind of improvement from Richardson and Harrington, something I hear a lot on this board. Those guys are what they are; Monta and AB aren't, yet.

As a test, it would be interesting to ask an average GM whether they'd give up a #3-5 pick this year for any of our players. I suspect their answers would be:

Biedrins: probably.
Monta: probably not, unless they were desperate for backcourt help.
Richardson: definitely not, unless we took on a terrible contract in the deal.
Harrington: ha ha ha.

by Sleepy Freud on May 23, 2007 7:29 PM PDT up 0 recs

I agree with most of what you said

except the Yi thing

We really don't know. I look at the clips and can see it going both ways with him IMHO

by Zig on May 23, 2007 7:37 PM PDT up 0 recs

I like AB

but Oden has a chance to be something much better

On the court I think you are right about Oden going to a good place but off the court Portland is sort of sleepy. I don't know much about him, maybe he likes that

by Zig on May 23, 2007 7:35 PM PDT up 0 recs

Lottery Loser =

Golden State Warriors. We're gonna have to get real good and bring in hardcore star power (see: Kevin Garnett) because two teams that previously weren't vying for those 7 and 8 seeds just did exactly that. The pressure is on to keep pace.

by jonathan on May 23, 2007 5:15 PM PDT 0 recs

a tough Pacific Division got even tougher

With Oden pretty much a lock as the Blazers first pick and Durant going to the Sonics, that's 2 lottery teams that are potentially playoff contenders for next season, esp. Portland since they have the pieces to be a solid team next season. I love Brandon Roy's game and if Randolph can get his act together and stop smokin them tweeds, they will be tough to beat next season. More reason Mully needs to go out there and make some key signings and/or trades to keep up with the Duncans and Billups of this league.

We Believe!!!

by crossphaded on May 23, 2007 6:11 PM PDT 0 recs

The Blazers and Sonics

are no longer in the Pacific Division. They are now in the NW div.

www.TRACKjams.com

by MANUTEs BOLs on May 24, 2007 10:52 AM PDT up 0 recs

OMG, Bill Simmons can write his ass off

Thanks for the link to Simmons' article. I didn't know whether to laugh or cry.

One thought about AB. He showed a great desire to improve over last summer. Let's see what happens with his weight (last summer he gained 15 pounds) and development of additional skills.

I don't know whether Monta has the same desire. Do community members know about his work ethic?

by commish on May 23, 2007 7:28 PM PDT 0 recs

I don't know whether Monta has the same desire.

Do community members know about his work ethic?

Judging by where he came from and how far he's come I'd say Monta's work ethic is second to none.
The question is will he be able to become a good point guard? Sometimes work ethic is not enough. If Monta doesn't develope into a point he'll still have lots of utility to the right team.

by Skeptic con Urquell on May 23, 2007 8:46 PM PDT up 0 recs

Actually

I think he lost 15 pounds to play Nellieball.

by Atma Brother ONE on May 23, 2007 10:35 PM PDT up 0 recs

A shirt for the losers:

"The Dunk"

by orangino on May 23, 2007 7:55 PM PDT 0 recs

I'm tired of Bill Simmons

whining about the Celtics. I'm a big fan of his, but c'mon, he's like those kids on My Super Sweet 16 complaining about how their new Porches are the wrong color. The Celts won all those championships back in the day and he's got the Red Sox and Patriots winning championships recently. Boo hoo about your sorry Celtics. That's what you get for making idiotic trades and tanking the last half of the season. Your book is named "Now I Can Die in Peace." If that's the case, let us live in peace and quit acting like a baby about your Celtics, especially after all the abundant success your teams have had.

by xacto on May 24, 2007 12:14 AM PDT 0 recs

my point was....

over last summer, from what I understand, Andris went home for a while then came back and worked on building more bulk and strenght. Supposedly he had gained 15 pounds of muscle, which he lost during the season running his ass off.

But my point was to highlight his dedication to improving his mind, body, and skills. How much more of an upside he can have, I have no idea. He and Monta, and even Powell and POB, are really young. We don't know how much better they can be, although we do know--in all likelihood--they won't ever be franchise players.

One last point: I think Monta's value significantly increases if he is willing to become a bonafide point guard. I think he has the skills but I don't know if he has that as a personal goal.

by commish on May 24, 2007 8:03 PM PDT 0 recs