Baron Davis Wins GSoM's MC Hammer Award

by Atma Brother ONE on Jun 25, 2007 9:30 AM PDT in Science Comment 18 comments

The results are in and GSoMers believe the most untouchable Warrior in trade discussions should be Baron Davis by a wide margin. Thanks to all 1,232 of you who voted.

Baron Davis (47%): No Baron, no playoffs. It's that simple.
Andris Biedrins (26%): Hopefully this value is just inflated by the position Biedrins plays. He's not the second best player on this roster by any stretch. Remember, the Warriors actually made that crazy playoff run to end the regular season with him on the bench and Al Harrington starting at the 5 spot.
Monta Ellis (12%): His contract to production ratio is outstanding, however he was a complete no-show in the playoffs.
Jason Richardson (10%): A year ago he easily would've taken the #1 slot.
Stephen Jackson (2%): He might not be as untouchable as the rest, but given his history and conflicts with the refs he actually might be more untradeable than Adonal Foyle.
Al Harrington (0%): He's probably just an average to below average starter in this league, but an excellent force off the bench and fit for Nellieball. TMNHarrington's versatile enough to play the 3, 4, 5 and spots for Nellie.

You mean The Baron Davis '06-'07 Story.

Mullin, Rowell, and Cohan- you can thank us for this free market research by not messing up this year's draft like last year. Don't worry Nellie's there to help you out.

Are you surprised by these results?

Look out for the world famous GSoM draft poll later today...

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Biedrins

AB's value is not "inflated" here. While he's certainly not the best or (currently) most valuable palyer on the team -- that's BD, no doubt -- there are two reasons he's the most "untouchable."

First, his salary is puny compared with AB's, JRich's, heck even Foyle's. You could trade those guys and either get value back or valuable cap space. For instance, BD's $17MM gets you into the KG, Kobe, etc. sweepstakes. And while you'd hate to lose BD, given his injury history, he can't be untouchable.

Second, AB is the ONLY guy on the team who can do whaty he does -- move fast, get defensive position, stick with his man, block shots and, most important on this team, REBOUND. Though there are differences to be sure, the rest of the players are relatively interchangeable, especially in Nellie's format. And, AB continues to get better and better -- he made incredible strides last year and will be improved again this year. Bet on it. BD, though terrific, has pretty much peaked, and his injury situation is likely to worsen over time. I loved the guy this year, but he's more easily replaceable than in AB -- on this team, at least.

by johnl on Jun 25, 2007 11:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Good points

I just think Biedrins is incredibly overvalued by Warriors Nation. We're talking about a poor man's Tyson Chandler or someone on par with Samuel Dalembert here.

Great player to have, but by no means someone you build around or call a franchise cornerstone. I don't think Biedrins gets that much better than he already is right now. His numbers will improve if he can cut down the fouls.

What does it tell you when the Warriors went on that crazy run with him on the bench?

by Atma Brother ONE on Jun 25, 2007 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ya sure he is overvalued..

but so are all the big men in this league. It isnt a gsom thing, it is just how bbal works. But I disagree with your comparisons, AB's quickness, softhand and good footwork set him apart from a lot of those guys you mentioned. He also is a pretty smart player who doesnt try to do to much. I think we need to keep him.

by dallaswarrior on Jun 25, 2007 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have you seen Tyson Chandler play though?

Tyson's more athletic, a better rebounder, and can get straight nasty when he throws it down. I'll take him over Biedrins any day- well, except for that contract.

But that's actually what worries me. I'd hate to see the Warriors hand out big dollars like the Sixers did for Dalembert a few years back and the Bulls did for Chandler to Biedrins. Biedrins is effective, but he's incredibly limited. Probably even more so than Chandler and Dalembert.

Don't get me wrong I like Biedrins, but he's not the sort of player you panic about making cap space for. That's like stressing and clearing cap room for a player who might never even be as good as Marcus Camby.

by Atma Brother ONE on Jun 25, 2007 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ya I saw him live in OK city

He is a beast but he is also an idiot. He doesnt play within himself and fouls way too much, more then AB at times. He also isnt as clever around the basket as AB. He just tries to dunk it everytime.

by dallaswarrior on Jun 25, 2007 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Range vs. efficiency

Biedrins doesn't have a 20 foot jumper, but that's not really the shot I want my center to be taking anyhow. Biedrins took 7.1 shots a game and scored 9.5 points. Camby took more than two more shots a game, but didn't score two more points a game. This means Biedrins was a more efficient scorer, regardless of his range. If it was so easy to hit a high percentage of close shots, it's remarkable that almost no one seems to be able to do this. Let someone else take the 20 foot jumpers. I'll take a guy who knows his range and stays with it over a guy who looks great in the pre-game shootaround, but hits less than 50% from the field because he thinks his jumper is going to drop.

There's only so many shots to go around. Scoring points wasn't the Warriors problem. While it's easy to get obsessed with scoring average and someone's jumper, if a center doesn't have much range, it's not the hardest thing in the world for a wing player, usually one with better range, to take that 20 foot jumper instead. But if the center can't rebound, it's not likely that someone else can make up the difference. I'd rather have a center who can rebound and doesn't take bad shots than one with a pretty jumper who cannot grab rebounds.

by jae on Jun 25, 2007 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes... but,

not to overhype camby like he's the best center of the league, but his ability to step out and his a 20 footer or even 10 footer (not that he necessarily takes the best shots) seems to open up the middle a bit for potential dribble penetration. in addition, I've actually seen camby put the ball on the floor and even take it the whole from as far as the foul line (not that that is the best play in the book either). with biedrins on the floor, you can almost expect him to NOT do anything offensively unless someone else is able to put the ball less than 3 feet from the basket. i'm not hating on biedrins, I just think that Biedrins will be SEVERLY overpaid (like most big men, but probably more) for the limited tools he brings. but i guess you can't teach work ethic.

by dj fuzzylogic on Jun 25, 2007 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

evidence

This is where perception becomes very subjective. It may seem like the ability for a big man to step out and hit jumpers opens up stuff for other players, but is there really any evidence of this? Does he create more baskets for other players by getting them easy looks than he sacrifices by taking shots at a lower percentage? The Nuggets as a team did shoot better with Camby on the floor than without him (about 2%) but the Warriors improved even more with Biedrins on the court than without him.

What it comes down to is what wins games. I actually think Camby is a very good center, but not because of his offense. He's a tremendous rebounder, meaning he's securing possessions without the other team scoring. Hitting a high percentage of your shots and rebounding well clearly correlate with winning. It's irrefutable, empirical evidence that says this. I suspect that a center taking outside shots probably doesn't really open things up as much as some think.

by jae on Jun 25, 2007 11:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I WISH

Biedrins could even be close to Marcus Camby (sans being glassman). The dude can knock down jumpers up to 20 feet, which is a good 18 feet more than we can say for Biedrins. In addition, Biedrins lacks finesse. He has nice footwork in hesistating and anticipating defenders reactions, but you ask him to create his own shot with his back to the basket? we're talking Foyle here, if not worse.

by dj fuzzylogic on Jun 25, 2007 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dont know about that

in the middle of the year we would throw him the ball on the block alot because he had such quick moves when we got him low position. He isn't going to face up if that is what you mean but if you get him the ball dow low he is really good, he uses the rim well and he is quick.

by dallaswarrior on Jun 25, 2007 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

true

I agree that biedrins is pretty athletic and is a pretty coordinated dude. JAE brings up good question that most bigs hardly have much offensive coordination to begin with so why should we expect anymore from AB? I guess my main concern is considering him and Monta as the "cornerstones" of the Warriors franchise. Given what some people are saying, is this guy our "franchise" if he's just to come off the bench to play some good d?

by dj fuzzylogic on Jun 25, 2007 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dont think he is a cornerstone

but I do think he is a vital part of our becoming an elite team. The reason is how athletic and quick he is, as well as his ability to maximize the things he does well and minimize the things he does not.

Also I dont like any player on the floor taking a lot of outside shots. I especially like AB's Field Goal percentage as he only shotts layups and the like. For exaple I love Dwayne wade, Gerald Wallace, Maggette, Parker-- because they dont take outside hsots very often unless they are forced too. This makes for higher field goal percentages and higher scoring.

In thes same way, AB doesnt take shots he cant make, or bad shots at all for that matter. He doesnt because he knows his limits and is coachable.

As for your concerns about a big contract, I am concerned as well. Hopefully Mullin doesnt make a Foyle mistake twice.

by dallaswarrior on Jun 26, 2007 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Chandler was worse than Biedrins at 21

And is 3 years older right now. For that you get 3 more rebounds and the same # of points, blocks, assists and essentially the same shooting percentages in 5 more minutes a game. I know that stats aren't the be all to end all, but if Beans has Chandlers numbers at 24, you'd have to think he was a disappointment. Dalembert was 21 as a rookie and is just recently started playing at Biedrins level, stat wise (at 25). I don't think either of those guys see the floor and pass as well as Beans, or show the creativity around the basket that Biedrins does. They are better defenders at this point, but I dunno if that was true when comparing them at similar ages. Both those players have been accused of not playing motivated basketball many times. Andris will easily be better than both those guys.

Manute Bol stole my lunch money

by manute-o on Jun 26, 2007 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

what does it tell you?

It tells you that Baron was back and healthy and Richardson was back and healthy and with two of their best players back they were a better team than with two of their best players modeling expensive men's wear on the sidelines.

Biedrins saw his minuted decrease at the very end, but it wasn't like he fell out of the rotation. He slipped from a 29mpg to a 22mpg player with most of those minutes going to a small ball-lineup that eschewed a PF and played either Harrington or Biedrins with three 2-3 types and a point guard. While Harrington was starting at the 5, his actual minutes declined during their playoff run too.

The words "build around" on their own don't really mean much. Do the Warriors need a big guy who can play defense and rebounds? If so, are they more likely to find one elsewhere (and one who won't similarly have delusions that he can shoot jumpers only to miss most of them) or are the more likely to already have that in Biedrins? I wouldn't dump everyone else just to keep Biedrins, but I suspect the value of a rebounder/defender who similarly hits the shots he takes and doesn't detract from the offense of others is actually undervalued because scoring average is easier to point to. But there are more bad teams with guys who score a bunch of points than their are good teams without someone who can grab rebounds.

by jae on Jun 25, 2007 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It reflects that shooting

and combo guards are a dime a dozen in the league

by Zig on Jun 25, 2007 11:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

it also reflects

the people think biedrins will get better. and why not?

A quick, left-handed, 7-foot tall 21 year old who D'd up Duncan pretty damn well (even if it was only for one game).

Atma, I don't understand how you can think Biedrins will stop improving. As I said, he's 21! Not only do tall people take longer to develope coordination, but the typical athlete peaks in his late 20's.

Will Andris be a post-player who can consistently create his own shot? never (how many of these are there in the nba? 5?) Will he ever be an all-star? probably not but he could be.

Given the instincts, athleticism, and hands we've seen from AB, there's no reason to believe he won't improve:

rebounding- already top-11 in the NBA and he's doing it without any help and while playing fewer minutes
shooting- mainly FTs, even if only a little
defense- adding 5-10 lbs would help a lot in the post. the key though is experience to cut down fouls but also know how physical he can get
most importantly post moves. he's shown little hooks and very rarely gets blocked.

Not going to force double-teams in the post or anything like that but this is the warriors best shot at having a guy who can defend Duncan, Boozer, etc. in the post. Baron, Monta, and JRich have all learned how to find him when their driving the lane as well.

In conclusion: unless KG is coming back, KEEP him. And while we don't have to decide between JRich and Biedrins, the warriors would actually become the midgets (and never hear the end of it from charles) if they let Biedrins walk and tried to start Baron, Monta, JRich, Jackson, and Al in the playoffs without a legit 7-footer at least coming off the bench.

by BingBluNT on Jun 25, 2007 1:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs