WARRIORS: a team to beat

by 408dub on Aug 12, 2007 12:57 PM PDT

Even when the Warriors roster has not been complete, SI analyst Marty Burns has already placed the Warriors at the 7th place at the Western Conference:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/marty_burns/08/03/west.rankings/index.html
I still believe that the Warriors will rank much higher at the Western Conference perhaps up to 4th place because:
1.    We've retained the core that made the finishing breakthrough to the playoff last season. Playing together as a team after the mega trade and injuries, the Warriors made an unbelievable 16-5 run in the 4th quarter of the last season. Of those 5 losses. 1 is a home game against the Spurs (3/26) and 4 were road games (Blazers 3/11, Jazz 3/19, Lakers 3/25 and SAS 4/7). Many say, that ran was a fluke and cannot be duplicated. Perhaps, but what is interesting to note here is that the Warriors only won 12 road games last season. 6 or 50% of those road wins were won at that final push for the playoffs. Imagine if we could win more road games and protect the Oracle with the most fanatic fans in the league as we did last season, then 6th to 4th place is not far from reality. However, the acid test is the upcoming 5 road games starting from Toronto on 11/18 and two back to back games with the Knicks and Celtics (w/ Pierce, Allen and KG) on 11/21-22 and with the Wizards and Sixers on 11/23-24.
2.    By then, SJax will be with the team as he has done with his 7-game suspension. After all his court issues were behind him, I hope he will be more focus on his games and play better basketball and be a role model to other players who have the same baggage. Another thing to consider is that, this time Nellie has the right pieces when he starts this season campaign. But aside from the veteran players who played at the playoffs, the Warriors get a lot bigger and deeper by their off season adds on without sacrificing their ran and gun game by maintaining their quickness, fire power and athleticism.
3.    Of that core, only JRich was traded. True, the fans and the team will miss him not only his talent, leadership and intensity but his productions as well (16 pts/5.1 rebs/3.4 assists). But I believe his productions can be spread amongst the team. Warriors' players are selected to be interchangeable parts of the team based on their talents, flexibilities and athleticism. They have no defined playing positions but defined roles as needed in Nellie's ball. Individual talent will be of no use if it doesn't fit in that system. Besides, individuals don't win games, only team does.
4.    As per 82games.com, the Warriors as a team with the combinations of Davis/Ellis/SJax/Big Al/Biedrins have 90% winning probability, one of the best in the league. Whereas, any combination of players with JRich was, the highest probable winning percentage is only 70%. http://www.82games.com/0607/0607GSW2.HTM

Finally, with the most effective combination of players still on the roster and Nellie at the helm, the Warriors are no longer the underdog when they reached the Western semis last season but a TEAM TO BEAT

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

0 recs | Comment 39 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I think 4th

In the stackled western conference(which it seems every other team has improved this off season) is a bit optimistic. I think we'd finish 8th at best as currently constructed and w/o any '08 surprize storylines(Nelly deciding not to come back, a MAJOR injury to BD, an unexpected break out season by any one of our youngstas).

COWABUNGA!!!

by Tim N Chris Burger on Aug 12, 2007 3:07 PM PDT 0 recs

LOL

Hey man, do u know the ingredients to a Tim n chris burger, I wanna make one!

by Tony.psd on Aug 12, 2007 11:00 PM PDT up 0 recs

TNC BURGER

I made a whole batch of these for my friends to celebrate game 1 against the Mavs last year

1 PLAIN, NO SESEME SEED BUN

2 PICKLE SLICES

1 LOW-QUALITY PROCESSED BEEF PATTY

1 SLICE PASTUERIZED PROCESSED AMERICAN CHEESE

2 TABLESPOONS MCDONALDS BBQ SAUCE (KIND THEY USE FOR MCNUGGETS)

2 STRIPS OF LOW QUALITY PRE-COOKED BACON

MUSTARD AND MCDONALDS BRAND "FANCY" KETCHUP

Diced onions optional

I fried up the burgers on an electric pancake griddle and added some bbq sauce during cooking.

bbq sauce goes on the bottom, cheese,bacon,pickles,mustard,ketchup,and onions on the top!

They were just as good as I remembered them
when I was averaging 1.3 ppg and 1.8 rpg with the Dubs back in 90'-91'

God Bless,

Les Jepsen

by LeSJepSen on Aug 13, 2007 1:34 AM PDT up 0 recs

great post

you make very strong points; ur only weak point is number 2. i think that you are being a bit too optimistic, but then again, almost everyone expected the warriors to lose to the Mavs before the series started because they didnt want to be too optimistic.

i'll predict fifth in west np.

by dso on Aug 12, 2007 3:21 PM PDT 0 recs

you're joking right?

4th? please. the spurs and suns are easily better than us. the mavs didn't rack up 67 wins by chance. i'd also put the jazz ahead of us and maybe even the rockets. the grizzlies are gonna be better this year. basically as constitued we're in the same spot we were last year: fighting for the 7th and 8th spots.

by AJC3317 on Aug 12, 2007 3:35 PM PDT 0 recs

actually im not joking

or being optimistic. The 4th and 5th spot is very attainable for the Warriors. The only teams I could see that could be better than us are Dallas, Phoenix, S.A., & Houston. Yes, I'm saying we are better than Utah because in that series against the Jazz, IMO we won 3 of those 5 games.

Game 1: down by 2, Jackson missed 3 pointer.
Game 2: needed one free throw to seal the game. Jrich missed 1, MP missed 2, Baron missed 1.
Game 5: after all the turnovers, foul troubles, missed opportunities, & silly little mistakes that could've easily cost us the game, we still had a great chance to win the game but just could'nt execute.

And what has Utah done besides add a rookie shooter?? nada. Now with our frontcourt depth and firepower we'd dominate Utah on opening night. The Nuggs are also not better than us because AI and Melo is not a good combination. If I remember correctly, w/ melo they went somethin like 4-1, w/ AI they went somethin like 2-5, and w/ both they went 2-3. In addition, the Suns did not get better but gotten worse, w/ Marion bitchin about how he's not gettin as much shine as Nash and Amare, and the subtraction of James Jones & Thomas in their rotation. So expect them to be lower in the west conf standings while the Spurs stay put and age.

by 408dub on Aug 12, 2007 7:41 PM PDT up 0 recs

Ummm...

The only teams I could see that could be better than us are Dallas, Phoenix, S.A., & Houston

Now with our frontcourt depth and firepower we'd dominate Utah on opening night

Since no unbiased NBA observer would agree with these statements, I think it's fair to call them optimistic, or maybe just fanboyish. You're citing just the pros and ignoring the cons -- the essence of optimism. In the case of the Utah series, you're ignoring the fact that the only reason we kept those games as close as we did is that we were able to shoot 3s at an unsustainably high rate. In discussing our firepower, you're ignoring the fact that we just dealt our most prolific scorer for a talented 19-y.o question mark. etc. etc.

Here's how I'd rate the scenarioes...
Best case (10%): #5 seed or better
Likely case (80%): #6-10 seed
Worst case (10%): #11 seed or worse

I do think that when Brand went down for the season, our playoff chances improved marginally, but I still wouldn't consider us a lock.

Then again, all this is assuming we stand pat from here, which I'm still not at all convinced we're doing...

by Sleepy Freud on Aug 12, 2007 8:13 PM PDT up 0 recs

i didnt forget

that we traded Jrich for Wright. But you might have forgotten about Marco and the poor man's Jrich(Azubuike). No offense to all Jrich fans, but right now Marco is a better ballhandler, better passer(arguably), and better defender(arguably), and his position is the easiest to replace in the game. I didn't even mention the most improved player(Monta) that could possibly start for Jrich spot and could score 20ppg. And this is BASED ON FACTS not optimism.

Davis-Ellis-Jackson-Harrington-Biedrins 89 215 146 +69 9 1 90.0

http://www.82games.com/0607/0607GSW2.HTM

BASED on 82games.com the highest % of winning combination is Davis-Ellis-Jackson-Harrington-Biedrins. NO JRICH. Dont look at it as we traded Jrich for Bwright, but look at it as we replaced Jrich for Beli and Wright.

And if you still think that it is optimism and the Jazz are great

As it is, the lack of depth at point guard, power forward, and wing haunted the club even during 2006

http://jazz.realgm.com/

by 408dub on Aug 12, 2007 8:58 PM PDT up 0 recs

BASED ON FACTS

Yup, cherry-picked facts, from a Warriors fan.

None of Belinelli, Wright, or Buki has done anything to suggest that at this point in their careers they're any better than league-average, back-of-the-rotation bench players. Thinking that they're ready to step in and lead us past Utah and Denver to a top seed in the Western conference is just silly.

You'd be a lot more convincing if you just admitted that, as a fan, you weren't objective. Insisting you're not being optimistic or biased is what is known as "protesting too much."

by Sleepy Freud on Aug 12, 2007 9:10 PM PDT up 0 recs

You can't compare

The attributes of a known commodity(Jrich) to unknowns(Belinelli & Wright). As JRich is a 6 year vet, you pretty much know what we'll be losing. Belinelli, however, has not played a minute in the NBA. Not even a preseason game. FOUR summerleague games does not make a star. So counting on any of our rookies to replace JRich's known productivity only serves to give you false hope.

As warriors fans, we all hope that both Belinelli & Wright go 1 & 2 in the ROY voting and lead the Dubs to the upper crust of the Western conference. Of course if that ACTUALLY happens, I'd be VERY pleasantly surprised. BUT I wouldn't be holding my breath.

COWABUNGA!!!

by Tim N Chris Burger on Aug 12, 2007 9:14 PM PDT up 0 recs

I'm not saying

Belinelli and Azubuike are better than Jrich. Actually he is WAY better than Beli and Buki, it's just that he does not fit in Nellieball. That is what made him expendable, because there were others that fit in pefectly(Beli).

"He shoots the shot you don't expect," Nelson said. "He shoots it a little late, or he shoots it a little quicker than the [defender] expects. He'll surprise you how he comes off screens or when he back-cuts you. He's very unpredictable offensively, and that's what I like about him."

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=stein_marc&id=2931177

Sure, Jrich can work his ass off and has a heart of a lion, but he still would'nt fit in as well as Belinelli because he just can't handle as well, plus the fact that Jrich gets paid 10 million just makes Beli more likable.

And for all the people that says that Belinelli isn't ready or can't compare with the NBA competition: He's not only a seasoned veteran in Italian League A(which is considered tougher than Div.1 college ball), he also played in more than 150 pressure packed games in Europe and torched the US in the world championships, and don't even tell me those guys playin for USA are just scrubs. AND he's only 21. To add on to all these Belinelli facts, I havent yet read a report about him that said "he is injury prone" or "can't stay healthy" which means he must NOT be injured often(can't say the same to Jrich).

I'm not a Belinelli lover or a Jrich hater, as a matter of fact I own a city #23 jersey, I just think Belinelli is ready, and will not be a bust, and is taylor made for nellieball, while Jrich isn't.

by 408dub on Aug 12, 2007 10:31 PM PDT up 0 recs

winning percentage nonsense

Look how many minutes your "super winning percentage" team played - less than 2 games worth.

That sample size is so small that its probative value is tiny, at best.

Belinelli and Azubuike are largely unknowns- we've seen one summer league of Belinelli and half a season of sporadic playing time for Azubuike.

Wright has to be Austin Croshere for a rotation spot in training camp before we count on him.

The Warriors COULD be 4th...but it's just not likely.

The teams better than the Warriors didn't magically become worse than the Warriors, and the teams that finished worse than the Warriors improved (Memphis, NO/K)

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Aug 12, 2007 9:38 PM PDT up 0 recs

I laugh

at every time I read "Belinelli is an unknown" or "Azubuike is an unknown". Yeah they might be an unknown to you but not to Nellie and Mullin. Why??? because Nellie and Mullin actually SCOUT players that are unknown to fans while all YOU can do to find out who these "unknowns" are, is to watch 10 second clips of them on youtube. You must not trust Nellie or even pay attention to what he says because he called Azubuike(AKA unknown) "a lottery talent" and also said " Belinelli was our guy.....We were lucky to have him at #18....We've been following him for a while...." Why does Nellie compliment their game???? BECAUSE HE'S SEEN THEM PLAY AND KNOW WHAT THEY'RE CAPABLE OF!!!!!

Now for all who say Beli & Buki are unknowns and don't trust Nellie and his sense for talent......well, just look at Spree, C-Webb, Tim Hardaway, Penny Hardaway(which we didnt keep), Steve Nash(MVP), Dirk Nowitzki(MVP), & Josh Howard........Now I'm not saying Beli & Buki are going to be superstars but at least give them respect because Nellie does.

by 408dub on Aug 13, 2007 3:24 PM PDT up 0 recs

they are unknowns

Every team scouts talent- yet there are a remarkable number of draft pick busts, free agent disappointments, and generally crappy players.

Why is that?

No amount of scouting ever guarantees future success; projecting the future performance IN THE NBA of two guys that have played so little in the NBA is even more difficult.

No one is saying they can't be productive- no one's saying they can't be really good. The fact, however, is that assuming their production will be enough to offset even 51 games of J-Rich AND IMPROVE ON THAT, is optimistic...extremely optimistic.

As fans, we hope for the best, but on GSoM, why can't we also be smart, and acknowledge the realistic?

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Aug 13, 2007 3:30 PM PDT up 0 recs

Look here

FACT: shooting guard(Jrich's spot) is the easiest position to fill IN THE GAME.

FACT: when Jrich broke his hand(at SAC), they tried to see if they could get a temporary replacement only even for a few minutes......signed Azubuike(from d-league,Fort Worth Flyers) for 10 days. Apparently, they liked what they saw in Buki and signed him for the remainder of the season.

FACT: when Jrich finally came back from injury(broken hand), we were playing against Memphis at home........barely won in OVERTIME.........From then on, we went on a 6-game losing streak(in those 6 games, we had Jrich but no Baron).........we finally broke the losing streak when baron came back(at DET).

Now tell me, what team would you rather have? a team with SG but no PG..........or a team with a PG but no SG.........CORRECT! the team with a PG.
Now is it clear that we win SOME games with Baron and a replacement for Jrich(Monta, Buki)??? yes.......Do we win with Jrich and replacement for Baron??? no(03-04,04-05 seasons, and 6-game losing streak)

What I'm trying to say is Beli, Buki, and Monta don't have to replace Jrich, they just need to fill his role of shooting guard......Will we be a better team than the Ws team in the playoffs??? probably not but we will have a much better record than last year.

Again, no offense to all Jrich fans......

by 408dub on Aug 13, 2007 4:11 PM PDT up 0 recs

And yet

None of the "facts" you've "cited" help to show that Belinelli and Azubuike will produce.

All you've done is post some circumstantial evidence about how the Warriors did with J-Rich in and out of the lineup.

This is a new year, and still...Belinelli and Azubuike have virtually no worthwhile NBA experience for us to project their performance.

You can argue all you want, but unless you can miraculously give us 2-3 years of game footage of Belinelli and Azubuike (time travel!) playing in the NBA, they are still very large wildcards.

This is coming from a guy that likes Belinelli and Azubuike.

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Aug 13, 2007 4:30 PM PDT up 0 recs

Obviously

you don't understand what I'm trying to say. I'm saying that Jrich is NOT the whole Warriors team and that we won games without him. I tried to tell you that by showing you we won some games with Monta as his replacement. He can easily be replaced. Without him, we could still be a good team..............As for Belinelli and Azubuike, we've seen flashes of what they can become, and I'm sure sure as hell Nellie trusts Belinelli for saying "He is read to contribute RIGHT NOW"..........some people make it sound like Beli and Buki are crap just because they havent played a single minute in the NBA

by 408dub on Aug 13, 2007 5:11 PM PDT up 0 recs

Once more:

We could be the good team without J-Rich, sure. No one said we could't.

The fact remains, however, we were barely over .500 last year, and it took a miraculous- yes, miraculous 9-1 finish to make that happen. That run was lucky- its not possible to sustain that over the course of an 82 game season.

Furthermore, no one is saying that Belinelli and Azubuike will suck. You can't seem to understand that you can't possibly ascribe that much production to them when we have seen so little of them on an NBA court. You can hope all you want- thats on you- but you can't seriously predict we're going to be more than an 8th seed contender.

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Aug 13, 2007 8:59 PM PDT up 0 recs

Dude

You sound like a true homer. Some of us here are just being objective.

I love the dubs and I like what I see in the small amount of time I've seen of Buki and Beli. I'm just not a "counting eggs before their hatched" kinda guy. I also don't count opinion

shooting guard(Jrich's spot) is the easiest position to fill IN THE GAME.

as a Fact.

Facts are physically PROVABLE statements. Now how in the hell are you gonna PROVE something as subjective as whether or not a position is easy to replace.

Look, I'm a homer at heart, too. I just don't let my heart run my brain.

COWABUNGA!!!

by Tim N Chris Burger on Aug 13, 2007 4:41 PM PDT up 0 recs

No one's disputing the FACTS

People are just questioning how relevant they are, and how you're using them. Stuff like this:

Now tell me, what team would you rather have? a team with SG but no PG..........or a team with a PG but no SG.........CORRECT! the team with a PG.

Is the essence of the straw-man argument. You make an obvious statement that no one ever disputed to make your flimsy case sound better.

In the simplest of terms, the Warriors got rid of their second-best player. I basically supported the deal, so you don't have to convince me on the fine points. Beli/Buki/Monta may equal or surpass the production of JRich/Monta/Buki production, or they may not. Generally speaking, it's better to have one very good player than three pretty good ones. There is a decent chance one or more of Monta, Beli, or Buki will blossom into a very good one, but it's no lock. If none of them do, the Warriors may have trouble making the playoffs. I think that's all anyone's saying.

Again, you're projecting only the best-case scenario for this team and ignoring the worst, medium, and even good cases. We may have a much better record than last year, or we may not. No need to present everything you say as FACT. Allowing some room for doubt in your proclamations is a sign of self-confidence.

by Sleepy Freud on Aug 13, 2007 4:49 PM PDT up 0 recs

were good enough

The warriors are good enough for the 4th spot.... but i dont think we would get past the 1st round....
we would have 2 face all the good teams....
i think theywoul rather.. wat 2take the easy rought... maybe 5r 6 spot.....

dallas.
suns.
spurs
denver
warriors
utah
houston
lakers/ sonics/ new O../

.................................
if it were 2 look like this

dallas would move on
suns move on
spurs
warrirors.. hard move on.. but they can do it..

but look whos our next opponents...
last yrs champs (spurs).. no way we move on...

we wouldlook better at spot number 6-8
brn cannot do it all by himself..
he needs aother star...

by goldenstatewarrior4lyfe on Aug 12, 2007 3:55 PM PDT 0 recs

6th at best

Do you honestly think the jazz and especially the rockets are worse than the warriors? barring unforseen improvements from beans and ellis, or shocking production from belinelli and wright, i do not see us leapfrogging them with our current roster. im not high on denver at all, i see them as 7ish.

spurs
mavs
suns
rockets
utah
warriors
denver
NO

that seems realistic, but assumes a lot goes right for the warriors. I can see them just as easily finshing 10th or 11th than 6th. lakers, grizzlies (watch out for them), portland, and maybe even the kings could be a lot better this coming season.

we will miss your j rich

by ripjrich on Aug 12, 2007 4:40 PM PDT 0 recs

theyre downplaying jrich's absence

and yet they only have us 7th? they say the fact that we got so far was a fluke cuz we are dallas's kryptonite, yet i think that utah was ours as they were a bad matchup for us. i think we gotta be like 5th or 6th

by Proof on Aug 12, 2007 9:48 PM PDT 0 recs

we had murphleavy plus injuries

for almost the entire year. if we get a little bit luckier this year and can put together a nice season i think we're 5th or 6th

by Proof on Aug 12, 2007 9:50 PM PDT 0 recs

I agree

Last season, we made the playoffs as 8th seed and almost 7th with 1/2 the season having murphleavy, injuries, and a month to bond as a team. Now imagine one whole year with a team taylor made for Nellie(asuming he comes back).

by 408dub on Aug 12, 2007 10:47 PM PDT up 0 recs

yeah exactly

i mean im not saying we will play as good as we did on that run for the entire season, but we should be able to gain a little bit of consistency and we have the players that we wanted and more time to gel our new guys.

by Proof on Aug 12, 2007 11:48 PM PDT up 0 recs

imagine

the hornets with a whole year of chris paul and peja stojakovic and the additions of julian wright and morris peterson

imagine

memphis with a whole year of paul gasol and kyle lowry, and the additions of Mike Conley Jr and Darko Milicic

imagine

the lakers with a whole year of odom and walton, plus fisher and crittenton (Beats smush parker)

we had our injury woes, but so did the rest of the western conference 8th seed challengers

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Aug 12, 2007 11:40 PM PDT 0 recs

I'd agree with that except

that Memphis only won 22 games last season. So, it's very doubtful that they'll improve by the 20 games it would take to make a payoff spot.

San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas, Utah and Houston are the elite of the West. I'm not crazy about Denver, but they won 45 games last season with a point differential to match and they look to have Kenyon Martin back.

So, as it stands now, it looks like the Warriors, Lakers and Hornets compete for the last two playoff spots.

by San Francisco Slim on Aug 13, 2007 1:02 PM PDT up 0 recs

again

No Gasol for half a season- and now they have a happy Gasol + Conley + healthy Lowry + Darko + another year for Gay and Warrick

They could pick up 20 games or more easily

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Aug 13, 2007 3:21 PM PDT up 0 recs

Agree

I think that the Griz will be a surprising team this year. They were in tank mode pretty early last year and you can't under estimate a healthy, happy Gasol. I think that team will be a strong playoff contender.

by olympicmike on Aug 13, 2007 5:17 PM PDT up 0 recs

Not at all

Gasol played 59 games and had his best season per minute. Last year's starting point guard, Chucky Atkins, played 75 games and had a career year (17.5 PER). Conley likely won't be close to that. Rudy Gay has got potential, but had a 12.4 PER and is presently a turnover king. And Milic is NOT a good player, at least yet. 44% career shooter, 45% last season, with a motor that lugs.

They have a long way to progress to make the play-offs.

by San Francisco Slim on Aug 13, 2007 5:36 PM PDT up 0 recs

for some reason i just see us

exceeding everyones expectations again. trust in nelson, trust in baron they will get it done and they will be runin and gunnin.

by Proof on Aug 13, 2007 1:51 AM PDT 0 recs

"For some reason"

AKA, because you're a fan. Really, it's not that complicated. It only gets complicated when fans confuse what they hope will happen with the actual most likely scenario.

As for "exceeding everyone's expectations once again" ... since half the people on this board seem to think we're a #4-5 seed, exceeding everyone's expectations would be quite a feat. #3 seed here we come!...

They will be runnin' and gunnin' ... no doubt about that. If they make no moves from here on out, they should still be incredibly fun to watch. In fact, the possible inclusion of Wright and Beli in the 9-10 man rotation would likely make them more fun to watch than they would have been with KG (or JO, AK, Artest, etc.) Nothing quite so exciting as a fan as watching your kids blossom.

At the same time, the inclusion of four 22-and-under kids in the main rotation (Beli, Wright, Monta, AB) virtually guarantees that we'll make a ton of mistakes and give away a lot of heartbreaking games. Part of the blossoming process. It's just too bad it has to happen while Baron's and Nellie's windows of opportunity are closing.

by Sleepy Freud on Aug 13, 2007 2:50 AM PDT up 0 recs

i was under the impression

that most people think that after the jrich trade and doing nothing else, people think that we will be 8th seed again or possibly miss the playoffs.

i admit that i am biased, but its not just me being a fan. i happen to think that with nellie at the helm, anything is possible. if we stay healthy, we're automatically better then last year, and the fact that we won't have murphleavy for the first half of the season and we're bringing in guys that nellie likes.

by Proof on Aug 14, 2007 2:23 AM PDT up 0 recs

uh,,

doesnt losing jrich mean we did NOT retain the core?
So now we have a weaker starting 5 than we did last year, and all of a sudden we're suppossed to slide into the 4th spot? What, because of some bench players? C'mon, lets get real here. I am as big a dubs fan as any, but lets face it. Our offseason moves have probably made us a worse team so far.

by ilubthedubs on Aug 13, 2007 11:03 AM PDT 0 recs

how dare you

bring logic into this argument?

Yeah I pretty much stopped reading after "we retained the core from last year." I mean unless this diary was written five minutes before the jrich/wright trade, this thread should be deleted.

by GameSix on Aug 13, 2007 1:41 PM PDT up 0 recs

Trying to think NOT as a fan

The big (and only significant) difference between our season-ending squad and our currently constructed one is the loss of JRich, right? (Sorry, MP, but you really don't factor in). I'll do my best to not be rosy about this.

It's not that unreasonable to assume Monta will improve again. Not as much as last year, granted, but he's coming into his third year and he seems to have a good work ethic and he certainly has more experience (some of it ugly, ugly experience). It's not unreasonable to believe that a man playing competitively (and rather well) in Italy for 4 or 5 years will be able to step up and provide some minutes as well. I don't think it's safe to forecast Bellinelli as a star but it's equally, if not more, ridiculous to assume he'd be a bust.

Of course, will they equal JRich? No. We all know about JRich's positives and the ones that do not show up in the boxscores will be the ones we miss the worst. But I also think it's a pretty safe assumption that we can replace a lot of his on-court numbers production with an older Monta and a European pro who is by no means a true rookie.

Meaning, I think we're the 7th or 8th seed. Just without all that final week nail-biting.

by Tenorca on Aug 13, 2007 1:54 PM PDT 0 recs

Bullet Pt 4 seems misleading...

I wouldn't put too much weight on this interesting stat. BTW I'm no stat man but check this.

The W % is how often the outscored their opponents as a group. Based on the 20 samples presented on the 82games.com when Davis and JRich are on the floor they outscore the other opponents >60%, either one alone in the 5, the groups are about 45% Win. Sounds logical.

But when you look at 3,4,5 on the list (50,90,50 W% respectively) it suggests a Davis - Ellis backcourt equals a Davis-Richardson one. Watching the playoffs we know this is way not true.

But here's why the stat is funky.

Check the Pacers.

Their best 5-man Floor unit includes Dunleavy and Murphy (83.3%)

5-man Floor units with Dunleavy and Murphy avg 53%, without them its 46% suggesting they improved with the trade?

Dunleavy & Murphy 5-man units also produce sub 30% Ws.

Also check the Suns. Don't get me wrong cuz I'm a total warriors fan, but I would probably pick their best W% 5 man unit over the Warriors any day.

by antmanx on Aug 13, 2007 2:42 PM PDT 0 recs