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Trade Realities

Mock Trades and rumors are fine for what they are, but most run afoul when they ignore basic realities of NBAeconomics.  Most players have value, but this value is mitigated if not completely overshadowed by by contracts associated with the players.

Star-divide

The REAL trade value of your Warriors.  Let's ignore Jax and Baron. They aren't going anywhere.  Their value here is too high relative to their value to anyone else.  

One nice thing about the trade situation the Warriors are in is that our TPE from Richardson means we can send out low dollar for high dollar, provided a player we get back is paid less than the TPE.  This makes some things much, much easier to deal with.

So here's my assessment of the pieces we'd have to work with and the limitations surrounding each one.

Azubuike:  It's hard to say what his value is.  He's young and producing average to above average for his position.  He isn't paid much (though next year he may be due for a raise up to but not exceeding the MLE) and can produce.  He's a good buy for a team rebuilding, but is a good buy to keep as well.  

Barnes and Pietrus:  for both, value as a free agent wasn't terribly high and neither's doing much on court to change this.  Both can help, at least in theory, but any team acquiring either will probably lose them at year's end.  Both will be non-Bird, unrestricted FA's at year's if traded.  Barnes is an unrestricted FA no matter what while Pietrus keeps his Bird rights if he's here, loses it elsewhere. Pietrus can also veto any trade. Their salaries are relatively modest, but could have some value as either rentals (though that seems unlikely) or as potential cap relief as expiring contracts.  It's tough to see this bringing back much though as trading partners are limited by those conditions.

The POB: similar to Barnes and Pietrus, any team trading for him would be renting him since at year's end, he'll be a non-Bird FA.  (I'm less clear about the "early-Bird" status on him, if any.)  He'd be a rental for an expiring contract, but he's a rental of a player who doesn't get into games here.  If he did show value, he'd be difficult to keep for anyone who had him.

Biedrins:  There's no indication that he's being shopped, but he has real value as a player and a team getting him gets the rights to match offers for him for another year, so he could be part of any team's long term plans.  I suspect he's a valuable commodity, as he's a valuable commodity here.  Another team would have little problem finding parts to fit in his salary.

Ellis: similar to Biedrins, fitting in his salary is easy and he's potentially part of any team's long term plan.  He's cheap for this season and a team would have the potential to keep him.  I suspect combo-guards aren't really high on most team's building plan, but he could have value.  He has value to us too, but if the Warriors are talking trade, his name will invariably come up.

Harrington:  tough to tell.  I think many have figured out that he's a power forward's body without the power forward's game, that he didn't make a bad team better in Atlanta and wasn't considered part of a long term plan in Indy either.  His contract isn't easy to deal with (though not ultra terrible either).  I suspect he goes only as part of a package with Ellis.  No one is going to give us the dynamite 4 we need for him.  No one.

Brandan Wright: an unknown.  Still loaded with 'potential' but hasn't really played much.  Part of any package potentially as his salary is still modest and he's potentially part of 'the future' here or elsewhere.  

Belinelli: similar to Wright, but as a later pick and as a wing player, probably regarded with less 'potential.'  Has done little to distinguish himself so far.  Cap filler?

Everyone else is cap fodder.

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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Sweet
JAE brings the heat- thats all spot on.

Stepping beyond economic rules, I think Barnes doesn't get dealt for off-court reasons. He is generally well-liked, I imagine, by the front office, and he was given a team captaincy. No doubt if we trade that helped were on the table to help the team, he could go...but we'd try to move Pietrus before Barnes.

But that's just a minor point that probably won't be a big issue.

A Golden state of mind Indeed.

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Jan 4, 2008 12:33 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Additionally, I can't see anyone wanting
Barnes considering nobody wanted him as a FA last year, coming off of a career year and a successfull, high-visibility playoff performance.

Considering his decline in peformance (FG/3pt%, Scoring + TO), I don't see anyone offering anything of value for him anyways.

I think Peitruis has more trade value, warrented or not, just based on the fact that there was some interest from other team/teams offseason.

by bloodsweatndonuts on Jan 4, 2008 3:38 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

agreed
and Barnes, also has a lot more value to us than any other team.  

by Proof on Jan 4, 2008 5:59 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The reality is our only true trading piece is
our TPE. I looking at the standings right now the only teams that are really tanking are young teams (Minny, Seattle) that have no real reason to trade or teams in our conference that wont want to trade with us (Sacramento and LA CLips).
       The only team that looks like an interesting trade partner is Memphis and I think it would be nice to add Mike Miller. I know he doesn't answer the big man problem or the point guard problem but the guy can straight up shoot the ball (43% 3 point shooter!)  and in our system he would be a great player to have and I could see memphis unloading him to get better draft position and flat out start over. A lineup with BD Miller Jackson Harrington and AB would be dynamic. Again this doesn't help any over our problem areas but there aren't really any trades out there that do. We aren't picking up a PF any time soon and there are a plethora of teams that need a back up point.
     
THE HEART AND SOUL OF THE W'S

by dallaswarrior on Jan 4, 2008 3:50 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i would love to get mike miller
but since seatle is tanking and in a rebuilding proccess with Durant, Green and other young guys, maybe we try to pry chris wilcox off of their hands.

by Proof on Jan 4, 2008 6:01 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also, Miller's salary isn't too high its around
8 million this year, about the same as harrington. On the flip side he doesn't play good D and he isn't going to make our rebounding better. That all being said, this was the only realistic option I could think of. THE TPE and filler for miller. I dont think Gasol is a realistic option and does anyone really was Damon (Mighty Mouse) that guys hasn't been a player in a long time. I dont think we can pick up andre Miller without paying too high of a price.
THE HEART AND SOUL OF THE W'S

by dallaswarrior on Jan 4, 2008 3:58 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Miller
Miller wouldn't make our rebounding better?  Really?   It depends on who he replaces, but currently he's averaging more rebounds per minute than any of the Warriors 2/3 types and he's doing this in a lower scoring system where the pace of the game means fewer opportunities to get rebounds.  His 9/48 is probably actually superior to Harrington's 9.4/48 when you factor the game pace into the equation.

I've said this before, but it bears repeating:  the TPE isn't a thing that gets traded.  It's space we have.  Memphis may want to get out of the back end of Miller's contract, and he may be available on the cheap, but if that's the case, the 'filler' is going to be pick(s) as that's what a team looking to shed salary wants.  And it's the picks that get traded, not the TPE.

by jae on Jan 5, 2008 3:19 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yo
lets get luke walton. he's sick, make it happen mullin.

by latvianlegendflex on Jan 4, 2008 4:38 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i like luke
Actually i think Luke Walton would be a better fit for the Warriors than Mike Miller.  I've always loved Miller's shooting prowess, but Walton is a very versitile and smart player.  He's kind of a jack of all trades, master of none kind of player, but in a good way.  I can easily see him running with the Warriors.

He's sick, make it happen Mullin.

I pray i never have to use a gun again.

by ssmokinjoe on Jan 5, 2008 2:13 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Miller...
...would be pretty interesting, especially since he seems out of place on that Memphis team right now.

by Zack Vank on Jan 4, 2008 6:07 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mike Miller
Would be popping those 3's!
Ballin

by ballin on Jan 4, 2008 7:20 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I am just hoping we make a trade soon...
I just want to see a trade made ASAP, after watching the past two games, its apparent a change has to be made. I know we are playing good enough ball to grind out games, but long term we can't just keep going into fourth quarters down 8 or more points, and expect to win 80% of the time. Our starters are getting too many minutes and its wearing on them. We really don't have any good options off the bench, b/c nobody seems to be consistent. We need to get rid of are garbage players, like a pietrus, barnes, POB. The Warriors need to acquire an instant offense player to come off the bench and play good defense. We need a good sized rebounder as well, b/c the dubs are getting killed on the boards almost every game. A change has to be made soon if the warriors want to solidify themselves are a true playoff threat.

by celicadriven27 on Jan 4, 2008 10:45 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

agree
anyone who thinks our current PG situation will be sufficient for the rest of the year is smoking something.  Tonight was just one of many prime examples where Baron's fatigue is a detriment.  He was handling Chris Paul for the first three quarters, but when when Baron hit around the 40 minute mark he let a rested Chris Paul look like Baron Davis.

I really hate to bring it up again, but I just have to.  Biedrins isn't the rebounding/defending superstar we all think he is.  He had a spectacular game for himself (something like 90% from the field?), but he let Tyson Chandler go something like 20points,20boards with 7 offensive boards.  The number of rebounds Biedrins collects for himself on the stat sheet doesn't impress me, but what does bother me are all the offensive boards opposing big men get.

But yeah, gotta give it up to the Hornets.  They're a solid squad, no doubt.

by jlagace on Jan 5, 2008 1:52 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

TC
Even though Chandler's numbers were crazy for that game, he was already the 4th best rebounder in the league as well as the best offensive rebounder in the league.
I pray i never have to use a gun again.

by ssmokinjoe on Jan 5, 2008 2:19 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

2 obs from being at the game
it was apparent that AB was drawn out of position to help his teammates stop penetration - he couldn't get back to screen out & no one else rebounded (a strategy I'd love to see Nelson employ!)

TC got a lot of his boards when AB was out & Harrington was in

AB is not superman, but he's pulling more than his share of the load and there are plenty of other places to point the finger - like Baron, Jax, Monta (last night he was invisible) even Harrington didn't show up until it was too late

by hardcore on Jan 5, 2008 10:53 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mike Miller is the 2nd best player on Grizz
I would say we would have to offer a lot for him. He would be a great fit for the Dubs though as it would give a solid non-streaky shooter who can bail us out when the rest of the team goes cold.

by Elcold on Jan 5, 2008 2:08 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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