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Andris Biedrins is overrated

Tiny by Iggy_Zohn on

who overrates him? you guys.

i was reading this just now:

http://goldenstateofmind.com/story/2006/8/12/162517/557

thought it was really interesting. its GSoM's report card of ab after 05-06. DJ Fuzzy Logic gave him an f, saying

Am I the only one who thinks Biedrins is Jeff Foster at best--a rebounding machine @ best?  Is that all we expect and what we consider to be "star potential" now for skinny 6'10 and taller dudes in the league?  His great hands and agility in the post are a great asset to this team, yet he is still incredibly unpolished and has absolutely no finesse 3 feet beyond the basket.

granted, that was a report from two years ago. biedrins has improved by leaps and bounds since then, right? Here's his career stats.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/biedran01.html

he improved a little from 06 to 07, but has shown little improvement from last year to this year. so far he has leveled off to 27 min player, 9 rebs a game, 10 points a game. respectable, nothing great.

the only thing he has improved upon consistently is his ft shooting, which is imperative for him if he wanted to stay in the league.

but going back to this site's analyis of beans. is that all we consider to be star potential now? i say no. i say we should demand more from a center that we're on the verge of giving a 6 year deal to.

beans has never shown that he will develop to be more than what dj fuzzy logic says. you guys had beans down two years ago. the winning of our franchise has blinded people on this board of the necessity to remain critical and and unbiased. it's just more interesting that way. anyone can be a homer and say "you're not a real fan if you're not behind this team and it's product 100 percent of the time." when the warriors top out at 55 wins and never go anywhere in the playoffs the next few years, and we're committed to the smallest team in the league that can only play good defense once every few games and gets outrebounded pretty much every game, then you'll question things. i'm just being proactive.

but hey, great game from biedrins last night. 4 and 2. (but he put a body on dwight howard! he disrupted him!) howard went for 26 and 12. i've never heard of a center getting as much unmerited praise as beans gets on this board. he's supposed to put a body on howard. he's supposed to play defense. he's a professional center. is that the standard we hold him to? (but he's coming off surgery!) so? have we seen beans play any better on defense than he did last night? not really. he dug deep, gave his best. and the warriors won. but the magic are not as good as the warriors. if the warriors were in the east, and they committed to this team, they'd have a legit shot at making the finals EVERY YEAR. but we're not. we're in the west. we're never going to make it to the top as is. we'll always just be pretty good.

final point. i see that i can't sway the people here about the limitation of this man. fine, we have different opinions. but the fact of the matter is nelson only plays him half the game. he would prefer to go small as much as possible. for a team built to run, with a coach who doesn't play centers a lot, why spend 60 million over 6 years for andris? it's a bad financial move. mullin has worked so hard to get rid of bad contracts, why create a situation where we more than likely will have another one on our hands. why can't we spend the money on bench, roll players who can defend, and get a cheaper center that can play 20 mintues along with o bryant and croshere. biedrins production will never warrant the kind of money he's gonna get this offseason, and it doesn't make sense for the warriors to overpay for a center they won't play more than 30 minutes a game.

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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not claiming to be an expert
But from what I've seen, Biedrins does a few things, but they are important, and he does them well.

He rebounds, sets solid screens, catches passes, finishes them, is the only Warrior I've seen consistently block shots, and alters many more.

Nobody else on the Warriors does these things. If he's overrated, what do you suggest we do? Not sign him? Who's going to do the things he did? Wright? Harrington?

I see Biedrins as a Chandler, who plays slightly more minutes and gets slightly more points and rebounds. He even gets less blocks than Biedrins. But everyone loves Chandler, and if you watch the Hornets you'll see he's obviously crucial. Even Chris Paul said Chandler was as important to the Hornets' future as Paul himself.

And Howard? He's a good player. The Warriors are notoriously bad defensively, especially inside. Biedrins gave him one offensive rebound. How many would he have gotten with Wright on him for 25 minutes? 50 and 30? Howard dropped 23 and 24 (9 offensive) on the Nuggets--on Camby, I presume.

by antihero on Mar 10, 2008 12:33 AM PDT reply actions  

asdf
He rebounds, sets solid screens, catches passes, finishes them, is the only Warrior I've seen consistently block shots, and alters many more.

ok i'm with you so far...

Nobody else on the Warriors does these things. If he's overrated, what do you suggest we do? Not sign him? Who's going to do the things he did? Wright? Harrington?

wright does those things. he rebounds, cathces passes, finishes them, block shots, and alters many more. he's two years behind biedrins, and he's skinny like ab used to be. give him a year or two and he'll set solid screens, not get pushed around as much, and hit jumpers. the only thing wright will never be able to do that ab can do (sometimes) is guard centers. but he won't have to, since he's a power forward. we could just sign a center for cheaper that's good on defense, better than ab, and can score the current 9 a game that ab gets.

it's just ridiculous that ab gets annointed for doing a serviceable job on dwight howard (who's only 6'11 himself). i mean, ab gets dominated by bynum. he's a weak defender of centers cuz he's too small. i think dj fuzzy logic had it right 2 years ago.

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 10, 2008 12:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

ok
a year or two..till then what do we do? You can't expect BWright to guard Duncan next year. We still need Biedrins at least till BWright gains some more experience.

My suggestion.. remake this topic in a year. Right now is way too early for you to suggest we replace Biedrins with BWright.

by saintdee on Mar 10, 2008 1:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

ok
but what if we wait a year or to, and i turn out to be right? wright does most of the stuff biedrins does now, and biedrins doesn't improve much from what he already is now. we're stuck with that for four more years, unless we can trade ab (if he still has value with that huge contract). i think now is the time to debate this, seeing as we have to decide whether or not to sign the guy for hella bucks and hella years this summer. (i guess we're not really deciding anything. but we can still debate)

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 10, 2008 1:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

so you're saying
we should let AB go, and wait for another year or 2 to see if wright can actually become as good or better than beans? Take the risk of not even having a servicable center for 2 seasons? That'll definitely keep us in the playoff hunt.

Beans has been in the league 3 years, is only what, 22 or somthing, and has shown improvement in his game every year. no reason not to resign him, thats why mullin will do it. Sure, he may be a little over rated by us dubs fans (which shouldnt be all that surprising) but he's crucial to our style of play.

by ElevationSensation on Mar 10, 2008 1:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

Blocked Shots?
AB averages 1.16 blocks per game...that's 29th in the league.  Forget the "consistently blocks shots" argument.  It's an illusion and should be put to bed.

Gotta agree with you on the AB thread Iggy.  I've been saying this all season.  $10 mill per is going to be a fat price tag...

by Hoof on Mar 10, 2008 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

It appears to be a fat price tag
Until you ACTUALLY LOOK AT WHAT OTHER CENTERS GET!!!  Let's take a look at big men who command a salary in the $6M/year range.

Kendrick Perkins $20/4
Joe Smith $15/3
Varejo $15/3 (He's actually valuable at this salary, but NOT AS A STARTING CENTER)
Antonio McDyess $15/2
Shane Battier $26/4
Jeff Foster $11/2
Tim Thomas $17/3
Radmonovich $23/4
Darko $20/3
Udonis Haslem $20/3
Bogut $10/2 (still on rookie contract)
Dan Gadzurik $24/4 (Remember him?  He was a beast at UCLA back in the day...)
Stromile Swift $6/1
Kieth Van Horn $14/3
Ignoring crappy players on the Knicks (Jerome James, Jered Jefferies, Malik Rose)
Tony Battie $15/3
Joel Przbilla $26/4
Mikki Moore $15/3
Shareef $18/3
Kurt Thomas $8/1
Nick Collison $23/4
Donyell Marshall $11/2
Chris Wilcox $13/2
Rasho $8/1
Branden Haywood $15/3
Etan Thomas $18/3

Notice something similar here?  They're all bit players at best that NOBODY wants starting anywhere.  These guys are everywhere, most are overpaid bad players, some are underpaid but wouldn't be all that useful anywhere.  Most don't really play defense and are pretty washed up.  Almost all of these guys are over 28.  Do you really want to lump Beans in with these guys?  Really?  Can we start our own fantasy league?  You guys are ridiculous.  Big men who can do things well get paid.  If we don't ever pay our talented big men, we'll be a horrible team forever.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Mar 10, 2008 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

Numbers
The problem isn't that AB doesn't measure up to other well-paid centers in terms of numbers. The problem is people either lack a basic understanding of how to use numbers, or (more likely) they knowingly distort them to support their simplistic hypotheses.

Specifically, it's dishonest to cite AB's raw numbers (pts, rebounds, blocks) without noting that he's playing about 60-70% as much as the guys you're comparing him to. Basically, it's like penalizing Barry Bonds for rarely breaking 180 base hits in a season without mentioning that he's walking like 8 zillion times more than the #2 guy.

This is exactly why PER is a useful stat. Obviously, it's flawed, but it mitigates against people who like to trot out individual numbers like PPG or BPG with no statistical context. By PER, Biedrins is the #8 ranked center in the NBA ... and he's just a few ticks away from #7 (Ilgausukas). And it should be noted that PER has a dubious "usage" rate, which penalizes players who don't shoot a lot and ride a lot of pine. Based on pure rate numbers, Biedrins is probably a Top 5-6 NBA center. At age 21.

Of course I agree with DJFL and others that in hoops, more than in baseball, there's a lot of anecdotal, non-statistical analysis that needs to go into assessing a player's value. But sheesh,  if you're going to use numbers, at least try to use them right. Something tells me our friend Iggy could argue that Juan "the outmaker" Pierre is a more valuable player than 1998-2006 Barry Bonds 'cos, like, he runs fast and gets tons more base hits.

Hey, it may be a misleading and dishonest game, but it gets him all kinds of hits on his diaries... ;-)

by Sleepy Freud on Mar 10, 2008 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

mmmm
I hear you Sleepy.  But, applying that same logic, we can throw AB's very favorable FG pct out the window because he earns 80% of his points on the break and when BD draws double teams on the dribble drive.  AB's post game is middling at best.  He is most effective offensively in the post when he draws a larger, slower C/PF so he can use his pivot and live dribble to up and under.  Just another side effect of Nellie ball.

If the organization is indeed committed to this style over the next 6 years (post Nelson), I could see giving AB in the neighborhood of 8 mill per.  Using AB's avg minutes as a barometer, I think Nellie favors a smaller C for matchups.

Sorry guys, I believe the valuable point of this diary is that we tend to overvalue our guys esp. AB.

I will probably be criticized for the suggestion but, I think Stromile (for example) would be perfect for our style of play.  Beantown, the trouble with making estimations about the value of those contracts you referenced is that they don't nor ever have played in our system.  Without the need for a traditional C, it's tough to guage the effect our pace would have on some of those player's games.

by Hoof on Mar 10, 2008 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ugh...
Would Stromile Swift be good in our rotation?  Sure.  Andy V?  Yeah, definitely.  Would they be able to handle starting as a center night in/night out?  Probably not.  Can Beans?  Yes.  He's no TD or KG, but he's good enough, he's fast, he does the little things, he's got good hands, and he doesn't make trade demands because our guards take crappy shots instead of feeding him while letting him play all the defense.  Did we mention that he's just 21 11/12 years old?  Oh, he hasn't filled out his body?  He's already an above average starting center?  Yeah, but lets hire some retread who sucked somewhere else so we can save $3M/year.

If we sign him up for 50/5, we might get what we paid for, we might get more than we paid for, but there's very little chance we're getting less.  Worst case, Beans turns out to be slightly overpaid.  Best case, he turns into a defensive beast, a great finisher, a pretty decent iso scorer, and a team-first player.  Watch what he gets on the open market this year.

The other problem is that there's no post-AB solution that's been presented besides:

  1. Wright is gonna be awesome.
  2. Draft Iggy's college buddy KLove.
  3. Get some NBA retread that somebody else doesn't like.
Wright is gonna be here next year and the year after.  We don't need to make any decisions on him for a while.  He's also 6'9" and skinny, not exactly going to be able to guard centers unless he roids up like Ben Wallace.  KLove is a non-issue (We could draft him or not draft him, does not effect whether we keep AB).  And if you're saying that Stromile Swift can replace AB, I've got nothing more to say to you.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Mar 10, 2008 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wow
Aren't u a jazz fan. I swear I thought i saw a post from u during tha playoffs where u were on tha jazz nuts. Maybe im wrong. Oh yeah about tha post, hahaha... U really must not watch warrior games. Cause if u did, and jus didnt go by  stats, u would see jus like everyone else does, how important Andris is to this team.
I love 2 tell tha truth, but I'm such a Good Liar

by JRichIsStillAGodButBiedrinsIsABeast on Mar 10, 2008 12:34 AM PDT reply actions  

well
until wright proves himself I'd rather have Andris. I can't count how many times he puts back those jackson, davis bricked 3s. Whenever I think we're screwed Andris jumps up and puts the ball back in.

Also.. Andris has a jump shot(I saw it in one of the Warrior vids they film during practice)..he just doesn't use it because Nellie doesn't need him to. We have enough jump shooters on the team that we don't need Andris to do it as well.

Howard went 26 and 12 yes... but how many of those were in the first half when Andris wasn't guardinh him and how many of those were in the second half? I say Andris more than did his job last night. Andris did his job thats why he's good. That's what we need from him. Notice how long Mbenga lasted on the job for the Warriors?

Last thing... trust in Mulson. They know what they're doing. I think they learned their lesson after Foyle, Dunleavy, Murphy etc etc. They won't hand out stupid contracts anymore. (see Barnes, Pietrus, POB)

by saintdee on Mar 10, 2008 12:47 AM PDT reply actions  

yeah, you're right
mulson obviously knows more than us. it would be interesting to really know what they think about ab. i mean reeeeally know.

i can't argue with your analysis of ab. i think you're pretty right on. i just think that what he does, and what he has done, is not worth what we're gonna have to pay him, not by a lot.

of course we sign ellis this summer. of course we sign baron. i think signing ab should be a debate, not an "of course."

and as far as comparing biedrins to chandler, as i and others on this board have done, just remeber that chandler is 2-3 inches taller than biedrins, i.e. can guard centers that give ab trouble.

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 10, 2008 1:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

signing
AB is an of course. The question is more like "how much" and "how long"

AB has great chemistry with the team so he pretty much has to stay. He has spent the last 2 years gaining the trust of Jax and Baron and understanding their game and vice versa. We are already proven contenders with Biedrins the question is now just execution down the stretch.

by saintdee on Mar 10, 2008 1:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

Will Biedrins be worth the money?
I think the better question to ask is: Will Biedrins be worth the money? Instead of arguing whether he is overrated or not, why not ask: will he be worth the $10mil/year contract he will be asking for? Is his role on our team worth that much money?
My opinion is that he is worth keeping for 5 years/$30mil or so, but he is definitely not worth the amount of money he will be looking for.

by 5 1 ROH on Mar 10, 2008 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

Running and slashing
As I've posted before, AB THRIVES in our style of play.  How many other teams have a real demand for a slashing C/PF with nary a 10ft plus shot and limited girth to defend and rebound.  I'm sorry fellas but, AB shoots from his wrists for god sake.  No set shot or consistent jumper is coming out of that technique.

I am hoping that teams are scared off by AB's lack of traditional skills at his position.  Perhaps we'd be able to get him at a fraction of the proposed 10mill.

That said, AB DOES play a vital role in our scheme giving Nellie flexibility to mix and match court personnel.  AB's hands (ability to catch on the run and in close quarters) are rare talents for a man of his height.

by Hoof on Mar 10, 2008 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

suspect
you say ", just remeber that chandler is 2-3 inches taller than biedrins, i.e. can guard centers that give ab trouble."

more like 1-2, and we're not even talking about wingspan yet...

But more to the point: Chandler guard the centers that give AB trouble? I'm not so sure about that. The centers that give AB trouble are the ones that seem to give everyone trouble: who doesn't struggle with Yao or D.Howard?

(and Chandler, while an good defender and rebounder, clearly has no offensive beside getting CP's lobs. He has yet to demonstrate any offensive skill beside being a good finisher around the basket--and that includes being able to routinely score on an iso (or even show a game that could be routine)!

by haverecords on Mar 10, 2008 1:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

saddsfaffdf
i will admit that Biedrins is a tad overrated on this blog...but definitely not as overrated as u think he is. ummm hello...highest FG% in the league? granted he doesnt always take tooo many shots but like someone already said....we dont need him too..the only reason he only gets like 27 minutes a night is cuz we play small ball and hes not too small. in a couple of years when nellie's system is long gone, and beans adds about 20-30 pounds to his body then IGGGY probably wont be calling him overrated. not to mention hes incredibly YOUNG.
until then, get off kevin love's nuts and actually pay attention to the warriors and u'll know that biedrins is great for the team

by 3Kings650 on Mar 10, 2008 12:58 AM PDT reply actions  

i
think we(including me) like biedrin because he seems like he is most consistent. Meaning we can usually count on him to catch and score if he gets the ball.

by saintdee on Mar 10, 2008 1:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

no love
u really can't put a ceiling on biedrins yet since his minutes are always up and down, his per 48 min averages are better than most centers. but like saintdee said, wright isn't a sure thing and you can't say he'll be our biedrins in a few years.

is there also a way to stop Iggy from posting on this site haha, always beefing with others who back up their opinions better

by habitual line stepper on Mar 10, 2008 1:00 AM PDT reply actions  

lol
nah its fine for iggy to express opinion.  And at least he does it in a nicer manner than some others.  I mean thats what these blogs are for right? Discussion.

by saintdee on Mar 10, 2008 1:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

stats are cool and all..
but should players like bruce bowen be out of the league because he can't drop 20ppg 6rpb 6apg? There are role players in this league, who obviously have sound enough offensive basketball IQ to make it. There is a lot that lies beneath the statistics...

by dandydaniel on Mar 10, 2008 1:00 AM PDT reply actions  

Iggy, you CAN'T be this butt hurt over
the communities general reaction to your kevin love for andris biedrins lunacy.

You're worst than jknocc or gambinofam.  WE OVER RATE BIEDRINS.  Who's the numbskull saying an 18/19 year old college freshman would school a 4 year NBA vet?

Bean's short comings are very correctable and can be done in a relatively short period of time.  Besides, its not like the warriors need a tradition back to the basket center.  It might make them worst(see ex #1 seeded suns).  How many of those tim duncan types has MJ played with?  How many rings did he get again?  

If ALL beidrins did for the rest of his career was get more mins, gain enuf experience to improve his man defense and ft%, gained 10lbs and stayed the same offensively, he'd be perfect for what the dubs need.  He's not doing that bad now.  And you want to throw a monkey wrench in this whole thing by trading  him for unknown commodity like love, whom you seem to be overrating.

"To my dear brother, Noompsy."

by Tim N Chris Burger on Mar 10, 2008 1:03 AM PDT reply actions  

yeah i agree
If ALL beidrins did for the rest of his career was get more mins, gain enuf experience to improve his man defense and ft%, gained 10lbs and stayed the same offensively, he'd be perfect for what the dubs need.  He's not doing that bad now.  And you want to throw a monkey wrench in this whole thing by trading  him for unknown commodity like love, whom you seem to be overrating.

but that's not all he's going to do. he's going to require a steep increase in salary, and a commitment to him as starting center for 6 years. should we do that just becuase there's no one better than him in free agency this year?

those are the kind of decisions that sink franchises. maybe signing ab is a good idea. but it's debatable. so let's debtate.

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 10, 2008 1:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

Jeez Iggy
You almost had me convinced that I could just let bygones be douche bags then you went and bashed AB with no remorse.  Not only that but you bashed all of the GSOM community...in the first line of the diary no less.  I can't believe that you're not getting completely dismantled this time around.

Anyway, Iggy, tell about the time you had surgery for appendicitis then came back to play NBA level basketball a few weeks later.  What was that?  That never happened to you?  Then what makes you an expert on the subject.

You're a warriors fan I guess so I gotta be cool with you but please be a fan and support our guys.  Not tear them down for playing hard all the time which is exactly what Biedrins does.

sarunas is my father

by williedillssf on Mar 10, 2008 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nice Catch ... Didn't Realize ...
... this was Agent for Kevin Love ... part 10.
On the back-door tip this time (rating down AB ... and what timing .. AB is barely back from surgery). lol

by soem on Mar 10, 2008 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

+1
i thought i regonized his user name from that diary. all his opinions on biedrins are null and void

by AJC3317 on Mar 10, 2008 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

correct me if I am wrong, but .........
isn't Andres barely 22 yrs old?  If we give him a 6 year deal, he will then be only 28.  It is true that he lacks the ability to "put a body on Dwight Howard," however, D. Howard is considered to be one of, if not THE, best young centers in the NBA.  The dude is huge, with a frame and shoulders not seen since Karl Malone.
Cut the kid a bit of slack and try to tell me when GS last had a center who was better than Biedrens .............. Umm ......... Uhhh .....Ummmm ........ lemme see here ....  It was probably Robert Parish!
In my opinion, The kid has been consistently improving, has a great attitude, extremely soft hands that allow him to catch quick passes, as well as the potential for a VERY good upside over the next 5 years +.
 - my 2 cents!
Rollin with Chris Mullin! -We are finally headed in the right direction again.

by erndoogie46 on Mar 10, 2008 1:09 AM PDT reply actions  

Nate
Nate the Great!!
His BBQ joint's awesome btw.

by gunwing54 on Mar 10, 2008 1:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

That guy Chris Webber
was pretty good his rookie season, not the fossil currently taking up one of our roster spaces.

by WilliamVanLandingham on Mar 10, 2008 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

ha
i knew my boy Lat would come hard against iggy. this is a great post.

i think it's safe to chalk this one up as another "fan" who doesn't appriciate a consistant player. Beans not only averages a solids numbers but he gives it his all whenever he's in the game. A lot of fan's don't get that not everyone is Dwight Howard. Every team needs players like beans. if i was mully, i'd ink him to a 8 year deal.

TGIB

by RC650 on Mar 11, 2008 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

hmm.
Iggy,

Your post is questionable at a number of points.

1) you are making the mistake of equating stats with  performance. They are, simply speaking, not the same thing, and stats are only a guide to assessing the performance (and ability) of a player. And basketball is not a sport for which stats are particularly instructive (as opposed to baseball).

This error leads you to think biedrins has leveled off, but it isn't clear at all that he has. I've watched nearly every game, and the following are certainly noticeable:
a) He has learned how to avoid fouls even better than last year. Some of this is due to getting veteran respect from officials, but not wholly so.
b) He has clearly developed a number of iso moves which he either did not have, or did not previously use. Biedrins gets a limited amount of iso touches per game, and when he does, the results have been intriguing.
c) He has improved in his passing and ball-handling more generally.

At this point, it just isn't clear what he will be. He does have tools, as the above implies, that could blossom considerably--that is, there is a base from which to work--but whether that shall happens we don't know.

2) the 'never make it to the top as is'. This depends on what 'as is' signifies. I suspect you mean without picking up another significant player other than those already on the roster. This is quite questionable, though. You're argument that Biedrins will not develop further isn't very good, and it rather clear that he could (not that he will). Monta might well improve even more, and I hesitate to say how good he will end up being, since he has clearly shown the ability to do so (he has likely gone from being 'good' to very good, this year alone: the strides made in ball-handling, passing, and decision making have been striking, and one can realistically imagine him improving further). Wright has shown quite a bit of potential and could be very good, and Belinelli also might be something, and is at the very least intriguing...

If, and it is a reasonable if, some of these player develop well (not necessarily greatly), the w's could be in a very good position.

And you should also consider the rest of the west. Of the top teams, only LA (and to some extent NO)are on the youngish side. The rest will be very old, and past prime in a season or two. Houston will likely still be good, and Portland will almost certainly be so. As for the rest, who knows.

by haverecords on Mar 10, 2008 1:15 AM PDT reply actions  

haverecords
1. stats are the only unbiased way to judge a player. they are the evidence to the argument. the other things are personal observations and opinions based on games that we've both watched.

regarding your observations

you're right he has gotten better at avoiding fouls. this is good.

"He has clearly developed a number of iso moves which he either did not have, or did not previously use." i just haven't seen it. could you site a game, or describe a move, soyou could better explain this to me? i want to understand, i'm not being sarcastic.

"he has improved his passing and ball handling" again, that hard for you to prove beyond your personal opinion. i would say that he still is a sub par passer, and his ball handling is ok, but that's pretty low on the priority list for a center, even in our system.

so yes, biedrins has gotten better at a few things. but i come back to dj fuzzylogics' assessment of ab after the 05-06 season.

"Am I the only one who thinks Biedrins is Jeff Foster at best--a rebounding machine @ best?  Is that all we expect and what we consider to be "star potential" now for skinny 6'10 and taller dudes in the league?  His great hands and agility in the post are a great asset to this team, yet he is still incredibly unpolished and has absolutely no finesse 3 feet beyond the basket."

just because we win now as opposed to then doesn't mean biedrins is improved.

if you guys want to discredit stats, then go ahead. i won't. his points per game is up by .6 from last year. his blocked shots are down. his rebounds are the same.

is your argument that since the dubs have improved everywhere else we don't need ab to do much more than he's doing right now? that's fine, but i wouldn't give a player like that 60 millions dollars. there's people that can do what beans does for cheaper. we pay beans 1 plus right now. i think that's about appropriate from the production you get.

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 10, 2008 1:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

p.s.
the only thing that's changed with ab since dj fuzzylogic's assessment is that he's more polished at what he does (shoots better free throw percentage, doesn't foul as much). players usually get more polished if they can stay in the league. that's what happens when you get older.

biedrins still is eratic to non existent outside of three feat. he's not doing things, adding parts to his game, that he didn't have two years ago.

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 10, 2008 1:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

i've seen him play
for latvian national team and he was running driblin passing doing everything that he is not typically doing in nba , since nelson probably has no patience  for turnovers of our centers .

 i think he is  ak47 type of player in his mind rather than typical center, he wants to play more offense thats why he works so hard on his jumper and freethrows.

iggy you have missed one very important point about beans  - he is fast. thats  is why he fits on this team a lot better than most centers on the market.

also he has soft touch near the rim, once he gets some muscle, little change of mechanics and he will be popping 3s just like Sabonis :D

by farid on Mar 10, 2008 4:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

ok
you've seen him play more than i have. i'll take your word for it. if he turns into an ak47 type of player at center, that would be amazing. he would half to really improve from 22 to 25. like, make leaps and bounds. but i guess it's worth a gamble. i hope you're right. cuz as i now i haven't thought of a back up plan lol.

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 10, 2008 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

And that's the whole problem with your argument
cuz as i now i haven't thought of a back up plan lol.

Is Beans the ideal center?  No, I'd rather have a young Shaq, Chamberlin, Russel, Duncan, KG, etc.  But we can't just go out and get one of them or draft one of them.  Even if we had the first pick in the draft, there's less than a 10% chance that a future HOF PF/C is even available, and probably a 30% chance that he'd be a #1 pick.  He could be too young, have character/injury issues, etc...

As it stands, is he worth 10M right now?  Probably.  Look at what players actually make.  Some are overpaid, but if all of the top tier bigs make 15-20M/year and the second tier bigs make 8-12M/year, shouldn't that say something?  Doesn't that provide a pretty decent history of payscale for these guys?  Beans is definitely smackdab in the middle of those second tier guys.  No doubt.  He's young and he's got room to grow both in the skill and size departments.  If he gets a little better he'll move to the top of the second tier.  If he bumps his FTs to the 70+% range and develops 2-3 solid iso moves or improves his ability to stay on the floor, he could move to the bottom of the top tier.  He's a perfect fit for the guard oriented, fast paced team we have, and even if Nelly retires that's not going to change.

He's definitely worth $40/5 years and he could develop into something far better.  It's a game of chance.  Some semi-realistic numbers:
10% chance he gets injured or loses the fire and becomes useless.
30% chance he stagnates and doesn't improve
50% chance he improves a bit, but never all star
10% chance he becomes a perrenial all star reserve behind Yao

I'd pay 50M/5 for that in a heartbeat.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Mar 10, 2008 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

You stated in...
...your post that stats are the only objective way to analyze a player, and yet one of the lynchpins of your argument seems to be a GSOM ranting from two years ago, prior to Biedrins getting anything resembling regular burn (at age 19).

How is using djFuzzylogic's post about AB (a post devoid of any statistical analysis) any different than me saying "no, you're wrong, he's a young star," and not providing any stats to back it up?

Now let it be known, I say this not to accuse that assessment of being inherently flawed (although I disagree with it), but rather to suggest that a non-statistical visual analysis of a players game over a long period is vitally important to evaluate them. If Biedrins goes 5-5 from the field  in one game, that performance had nothing to do with the fact that he shot a great percentage in every game of his career to that point, it has everything to do with the skills he brings to a basketball court, and how he utilized them that particular night. To be sure, stats are very crucial to predict a player's abilities, but it's wrth remembering the abilities create the stats, not the other way around.

by Zack Vank on Mar 10, 2008 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

uh...
So...are you hoping that for the long term that beans will develop into a dominant low post scorer (i.e. Howard)? Something every NBA "analyst" on ESPN thinks is the problem with the Warriors? Or if we should just pay a cheap salary for someone to do "remedial pro-center tasks", hell we can get  Mikael to do that for us (11 reb and he can shoot the 3!).

I'll assume that you keep up with Warriors games so I'm not going to mention how on a team like the Warriors where if your name isn't Baron, Stack, or Monta, you will most likely not get 20+ mins and 10-15 touches on every given night.

All I'm going to say is "Erick Dampier". Remember his salary? His stats? Would you like to re-watch the Playoffs and tell people that his production aren't worth what he's paid? (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/photo?playerId=181)

Beans production is obvious whether its pick n rolls with Stack or just clean up the boards, that's what we need. The Dubs aren't a team that needs a reliable low post, we get our points in the paint (#1 in the league right now) from Monta and Baron. And if bean's can stop other 1 2 3 & 4's from doing that, run down the court faster than most 4s and occasionally pester a beast like Howard, then I guess I am bias by saying beans isn't overrated.

by gunwing54 on Mar 10, 2008 1:18 AM PDT reply actions  

right, exactly
you made my point for me and i'm so glad you did.
I'll assume that you keep up with Warriors games so I'm not going to mention how on a team like the Warriors where if your name isn't Baron, Stack, or Monta, you will most likely not get 20+ mins and 10-15 touches on every given night.

so why would we give someone besides those guys a big, long-term deal? why the hell would we do that? we could give someone less money to play center for 15 to 20 minutes that is bigger, can guard center, set screens, and tip in misses. these are all prerequisites to being a professional center. let's not invest a lot of money into our center position since we'll never value it like other franchises anyway.

i don't have anything against ab. i understand what he can do well and why you like him. i'm trying to think like mullin, trying to figure out what's best for the team in the future financially.

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 10, 2008 1:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

huh...
If "finance" was your main concern, then you really should have stated it in an obvious way.

But then again, I still can't agree with you on that point either. I'm sure others will point out the chemistry and his upsides/downsides so I'm not going to delve into that.

So what is it that you want? You state "finance" as the reason why beans upcoming contract we THINK he'll get is overrated but then you don't state good reasons on why we need all that financial stability. So lets just say we go with your idea, we don't sign beans for the supposed contract that lets admit, we will never find out until it's signed, get some big guy in the NBDL and we get more cap room. What do you think we should do? Give our big 3 bigger contracts? More contract extensions? Go for it all and try to get an All-Star (Elton Brand maybe?)? Build a new arena?!

On this team which I do believe is the 2nd or 3rd youngest team (and obviously with the best record among them). Why do we need even more $$ stability? You get money to rebuild, we don't have anything to rebuild, we're good. Besides, you said it yourself! "Were in the west". Forgoing a center that is well liked and hustles just for money isn't going to help us pick up the next "Heir Apparent" or (knock on wood) have lightning strike down the bastards behind the Pau Gasol trade.

by gunwing54 on Mar 10, 2008 2:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

yes, absolutely
we should save the money and make a move for brand. hell yes. kawakami agrees with me too.

so, to sum up your argument, we should sign biedrins because you can't think of a better use of 60 million dollars. that's not a good reason. you should at least try to justify paying the man 60 million.

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 10, 2008 2:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

lets
see how much biedrins get signed for before we call him over rated. He might be perfectly rated for all you know.

I still stand by my wait and see. Its too early for this debate. We gotta see if we make the play offs first and if we do how far we can get. Lotsa factors.

by saintdee on Mar 10, 2008 2:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well then
Elton Brand would be excellent. And I apologize if you didn't get what I've been trying to say.

First, how would Brand fit in. I just don't see it. He's a tremendous player, but he'd be in their doing what? ding! things Beans are already doing (for cheaper might I add). Will we see a day where even Wright gets 10-15 touches which take away touches from our three? So I guess the proper response would be, "why get an All-Star not named Ben Wallace to clog up the paint"? Don't even get me started with Brand's injuries.

Secondly, 60 mil? That's not a done deal, that's what the media's thrown out. I respect Tim and the rest of the Bay's writers, but Mully does have a way with hiding stuff. And I don't mind paying the man 60 mil of Chris Cohan's money. Why am I saying "Dampier"? He's getting the equivalent of what you  state we'd give beans and his stats are worst. Dampier's on a winning team, he does the dirty work, hes older/slower, and he definitely does not have the touch beans has...and guess what? He's not theoretically getting 10 mil a year, he IS getting  10 mil a year.  

And for the record, I don't hate you. Your posts rub GSOM the wrong way sometimes, but "Community Discussion" right?

by gunwing54 on Mar 10, 2008 2:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

yeah you're right
i guess i do run you guys the wrong way. i don't mean to. just trying to spice it up here.

one last point before i go to bed.

"And I don't mind paying the man 60 mil of Chris Cohan's money"

me neither. let's just spend it the smartest way.
i don't think speding it on all on biedrins is the smartest way.

can we think of other ways to spend it?

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 10, 2008 3:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

asdf
I do think paying beans a supposed 60 mil over 6 years is smart especially considering lesser players (stat wise) are already getting that.

by gunwing54 on Mar 10, 2008 3:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

An opinion BASED on REALITY...
Iggy, you obviously don't know much about the salary cap.  The money to be spent on AB can't just be allocated to sign brand.  AB is the WARRIORS restricted free agent.  The CBA allows for teams spend money(even going over the cap) to keep their own free agents.  The dubs CAN go over the cap to sign biedrins.  They CAN'T go over the cap to sign brand, unless its by using an excemption (about $6mil MAX).  The dubs wouldn't have the cap room EVEN if they didn't re-sign AB to give brand fair market value.  And I doubt brand signs w/  a centerless dubs for $6mil.
"To my dear brother, Noompsy."

by Tim N Chris Burger on Mar 10, 2008 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

again
i thought we made the wikipedia page on the slaray cap required reading for people discussing financial  concerns. Iggy's posts are, on the whole, poorly thought out and highly reactionary. Some facts would help his argument.
TGIB

by RC650 on Mar 11, 2008 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

i'm pretty sure
beans is a lot more capable than what we see in the game. nellie loves to shoot the 3 and that just takes away more opportunities for andris. anybody remember the game vs the suns last year when andris dribbled right down the key and dunked on amare? (can kevin love say hes down that?)beans has a lot more than what we see on the court and thats because nellie doesn't always use him. anybody remember against the heat when he did an up and under reverse layup? granted, that its the heat, its still an unbelievably athletic move for a center to be making. the kid is only 22 and he's got alot more talent then you see night in and night out.  

by lowchi on Mar 10, 2008 1:33 AM PDT reply actions  

so you'd give him 60 mil
even though the coach likes a team that shoots threes, and only uses him about half the game, and his cieling is to only just scrape the top ten centers in the league? 60 million? it's a mistake.

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 10, 2008 1:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

do you know...
how much decent centers make in this league?  It's not an exorbitant amount we're talking about.  It's not Troy Murphy part II we're talking about.  

by kinetic on Mar 10, 2008 1:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

nelson
will not be the coach forever. maybe one or two more years at the most.

by 3Kings650 on Mar 10, 2008 7:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

but
do you really think the warriors will hire a coach with a completely different style from nelson? i have a feeling nelly ball is here to stay...
TGIB

by RC650 on Mar 11, 2008 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

typo
(can kevin love say he's done that)*

by lowchi on Mar 10, 2008 1:33 AM PDT reply actions  

and...
you can call me a coward, but if you were someone that I had to see during my day, and you were acting like this (constantly ranting on the same drawn out subject), I'd tell you to shut up.  It's getting old.

by kinetic on Mar 10, 2008 1:55 AM PDT reply actions  

god forbid
someone disagree or say something that people will disagree with. you should just beat me in a debate if you dislike what i say. you just have ad hominum arguements and opinions. i'm working harder to support my point than you are. so you lose as long as you engage me.

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 10, 2008 1:58 AM PDT reply actions  

my god...
it's like you don't even watch basketball.  Granted, I'm not working hard to defend my position.  With plenty of other well-informed GSOMers out there, I don't feel like I have to.  Every post you make explodes into 100+ posts of you versus everyone else.  It's ridiculous.  Why do you get off on this crap?  Can't you find a more reasonable way to let this aggression out?  If you're going to start a discussion that's fine.  But making posts stating that you're right and everyone else is wrong is just immaturity at it's highest level.  

by kinetic on Mar 10, 2008 2:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

iim just gonna say
if we do overrate him and he the warriors dong sign him. we will be seeing another great who is in another team ie, jamison, arenas.... everybody else! we will be sorry, but i dont know how we are going to do that come on we could not even keep j rich. and we have to sign monta and bd.
What you thought that I only played basketball? I AM A Golden State WARRIOR!

by 24k state fan since 87 on Mar 10, 2008 2:00 AM PDT reply actions  

argh
i hate not being able to edit first sentence meant to say. if we do overrate him and the warriors don't sign him
What you thought that I only played basketball? I AM A Golden State WARRIOR!

by 24k state fan since 87 on Mar 10, 2008 2:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

ok..
guys we're all pathetic.. its 2:47am and look at we are doing. WE"RE ALL PATHETIC!!!

by saintdee on Mar 10, 2008 2:28 AM PDT reply actions  

HAHHA
This beats English HW.

Come on people, "Community Discussion". 100+ posts of him against everyone beats 5 I agree's.

And honestly, is a "Love v Beans" debate productive? Without even mentioning Love's theoretical +/-'s do you even think we can pull of another heist of Brandan Wright proportions? (I love J-Rich btw)
Just stop, we aren't gonna get another lottery pick like Wright (or Love) for awhile.

by gunwing54 on Mar 10, 2008 2:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

yup...
and what do you do?  You come onto a fanblog and start arguments with everyone.  Is that any better?  You've clearly got an insatiable need to feel better than everyone else.  Why?  What messed up childhood did you have that you're only outlet is insulting people over an internet blog?  
iggy's got some pretty sweet bling.

by kinetic on Mar 10, 2008 2:31 AM PDT reply actions  

that's all dubs need to win a championship...
is Kevin freaking Love manning the middle. D. Howard and all the rest of them would and will poop on his face if he ever tries to guard them.  If you think Beans has trouble guarding centers, just drop love in there, no prob, he'll use his Mike D. like court vision to stop D. Howard from Supermaning his ass.  Can we stop comparing Love to Beans also, they wouldn't play the same position on the dubs or any other team for that matter unless that position was power forward, on some other team.  If the dubs drafted love, which would never happen if Nelson is coach/Mullin puppeteer, he would play the 4, oh didn't we just draft Wright and besides Love is too slow and too small to guard anyone in the NBA.  Love I'm sure can do well against centers like the Lopez brothers and even the Collins brothers, but these are not real NBA big men.  Love is too slow, watch his game, it is so freaking slow.  Good college player, period.  Will not be able to compete in the nba, can't wait to see the team that drafts this poor mans Christian Laettner.  Love can not play center in the National Basketball Association, can't believe people are even considering that, we'd give 150 a game with Love in the middle.  I can imagine love picking up people off the screen too, that would be a sight to see!  Iggy's problem is that he only thinks about offense and that isn't what the dubs need.

by ZEROrebounding on Mar 10, 2008 2:37 AM PDT reply actions  

Again, Why the Love?
With these college players you can't predict anything. Again I ask you, what makes you think Kevin Love will amount to anything? Do you honestly believe a front line of Love and Wright can match up against the bigs of the west?

I don't think Andris is overrated. I believe he is going to be as good as Tyson Chandler and that is his ceiling. I don't care if he doesn't end up being another Dwight Howard. The Warriors do not need a dominating center to compete. It wouldn't hurt to have a dominating center but unless we could get this center, I'm happy with Biedrins in the middle. There is no guarantee Bwright will become a good player. Wright showed glimpses of his potential but he barely played in the Orlando game, so does that mean he is digressing. Nelson is all about matchups. If Wright is able to do the things Biedrins can do, then why wasn't he in the game? WIth that said Biedrins only played 18 minutes probably because Nelson wanted a scoring on court lineup to spread the floor. Baron, Jackson, and Monta are the only players on the team guaranteed to get consistent minutes. Every other player will be utilized according to certain match ups.

Sure Nelson likes his centers to shoot 3's but he probably doesnt mine a center that rebounds and block shots. If Nelson wants a 3 point shooting center so much, then why didn't the Warriors go after Mehmet Okur?

Most teams hold on to their young and talented centers because serviceable centers are rare in this league. It will be foolish for us to let Biedrins go without a backup plan.

I understand where you are coming from. Why pay a guy so much if he isn't going to play over 30 minutes a game? Then you are going to have to find a center that Nelson is willing to play 30 minutes a game. Thats going to a harder task than you think because who knows what goes on in Nelson's mind. Then again, Nelson probably won't be here for all of Biedrin's 6 years, if he is resigned.

Your statement about Biedrins being overrated is not entirely correct. Often times Biedrins gets taken out of the game because of matchup reasons. Andris would probably get better numbers if he was playing for the Hornets in place of Chandler. By the way Tyson Chandler has been in the league for 6 years, while Andris has been in the league for 3 years, of course Chandler is a better defender. Although that still doesn't mean Chandler can defend Duncan, Amare, or Boozer.

I would much rather have a proven 3 year veteran like Biedrins than a rookie who might drop out of the lottery. If Love does drop that fall then is he really that good? Maybe he'll end up being the next Sean May or Mike Sweetney, over weight, 6-9 big men.

by Snake Eyez on Mar 10, 2008 3:56 AM PDT reply actions  

brief reply
yes, i think a front court of love and wright would be more effective than biedrins and wright. just just plain speculation on my part. i think they compliment each other better. love lacks athleticiscm, has polish/moves/passing/shooting/high iq and wright has the ultimate athleticism at 4, plus shot blocking ability, plus dunks, but he's weak where love is strong.

but i've said this before, and i don't think we should continue this debate, because it gets people here mad, and i can't really prove my point, since it's a sort of a "you guys just wait" sorta thing.

coming back to your points. i think you did a great job defending your side. the only thing i can say is that i still don't think paying 60 mil to someone other than baron/monta/jax is wise until one of them leaves/retires by virtue of the fact that only those three see 40+minutes a game and therefore deserves max money.

you say give biedrinds max because he's a good center that fits into nelson's style better than a lot and centers are invaluable anyway. you might be right. that's convincing. But if any coach devalues centers, it's nelson. in his ideal world, he'd just play our small guys and outscore opponents, then be able to bring in a defensive minded center who can block shots and rebound and guard the other center when we've been forced into a half court game. and i think ideally we wouldn't pay that guy 60 million.

but hey, maybe this just isn't an ideal world, right?

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 10, 2008 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

Good debate
Well Nelson isn't going to be here long term. Keith Smart or any other future warrior coach might find a way to use Andris more effectively. I wouldn't say that Nelson prefers to use a smaller lineup. I say he prefers to use a smaller lineup in certain situations and depending on his mood. Again, Nelson isn't going to be here that long. If Andris averages 10 points, 10 rebounds and close to 2 blocks a game for all of his next 6 years here, I am satisfied. I don't mine the Jeff Foster comparison, although Andris is a better scorer than Foster. With that said, Foster is a solid center that does the dirty work. These players are undervalued. In some cases they are over valued, like Ben Wallace. But they could also play a significant role in a team, just like Kurt Thomas.

Lets say that we do not resign Andris and we do draft Love, but Bwright doesn't become the player we envision him to be? What then? From what I have seen, Bwright has all the skills to become a good player, but so did a lot of players that ended up underachieving. What if Love struggles his first year? Then we would have 2 inexperienced, struggling big men next year. Where will the rebounds and shot blocking come from if both players are struggling. We have not seen enough of Love and Wright to determine that they will become solid pros. Its all speculation. However, we have seen enough of Andris to believe that he will become a consistent 10 and 10 guy.

Thank you for bringing up this debate. You would of gotten less hate if you didn't mention replacing Andris with Kevin Love. Again, if Love does drop that low, is he really that good? Why would so many teams pass up on him? Why would we hand over the starting center position to him without having him play in our system for a year?

I say resign Biedrins and if we could pick up Love, then lets consider it. Have Love backup Andris, Al, and Bwright for a year. If Love ends up producing more than Andris then we trade Andris away.

by Snake Eyez on Mar 10, 2008 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

how about
instead of a "you just wait" sort of thing its a "you're completely wrong, and give up" sort of thing

by BD4mvp on Mar 10, 2008 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

asdf
what're you smokin
"TIMEOUT IN BARON'S HOUSE"

by the noTORious TOR on Mar 10, 2008 4:01 AM PDT reply actions  

Remember Andrew De Clercq?
Great hustle 6'10" back up center.  He survived on sheer guts and hard work around the basket.

Beadrins might be much better than Andrew or he could be similar.  But I'd wait to throw Shaq money at the guy.  Ellis is the star, he'll get the big money.  Beadrins fills a need and fills it well.  He fully deserves to get an extension (Beadrins), but it also should be in line with his talent, which seems good, but short of all star good.

by Gain on 10 on Mar 10, 2008 5:26 AM PDT reply actions  

WTH?
great hustle backup!

Biedrins already is starter
Biedrins already is between top 10 centers of present NBA

Shaq money?
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=614

i don't think that someone is asking for 21m$

how do you think how much earn talented big man?
less then 10m per year?

or you want to pay money just to "allstar good" players?

build a team & destroy the roof

by Lat We N Trash on Mar 10, 2008 5:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

my 2 cents...
it's all been said already. I'd just like to add that Beads is a legit center at 7' with speed and good hands. averaging almost the best FG% and killer on the boards. yup, that is all the warrior's need at center, and exactly what don's been looking for all his life, a center he doesn't have to coach, and produces big numbers. All these other guys everyone keeps comparing beads to are 6'10" or smaller. Wright is a pf at best. or even a tall small-forward. I know don likes to play small guy at center, but he doesn't need to now that he has a taller guy that does all the things he expects from someone 2" shorter... bottom line, beads deserves to get paid almost whatever he demands, barring any rediculous amounts. Beads overrated? only as much as nash is, I guess they both got everyone fooled!... i don't think so
"No Respect! I tell you man, No Respect!"

by oldskool on Mar 10, 2008 8:38 AM PDT reply actions  

Biedrins
overrated... hmm I would rather say underrated.Just look at the raptors Rasho who is i bet considered as a scrub in most of the NBA but he is important to his team just because he plays smart setting the screens, controlling the paint, pick and roll, can pass,...there are things in the game which can't be seen on stat sheet but are also very important for the final outcome.Stats are like a bikini it shows you a lot but not the most important thing.

by buky on Mar 10, 2008 8:56 AM PDT reply actions  

This is ridiculous
No matter how many times you get shot down, you just keep coming back.  I'm going to refer to you as "zombizzy" from now on.

For once, do some research and see what centers putting up horrible numbers like 10/10/2 are getting paid before you tell me 6/60M isn't worth it.  Like linemen in the NFL, Centers don't get the glamor but they get paid.  Why?  Because you need to guard the paint.  If you can't guard the paint, you get destroyed.  Here's a little bit of info:

Kaman got his $52.5M/5 after a 10/8/1.5 season
Chandler got his 60M/6 after a 8/10/1.8 season
Dalembert got his 60M/6 after a 7/8/2.5 season
Ilgauskas got his $50/5 after a 17/8/2.1 season
Brad Miller got $68M/7 after a 13/8/0.6 season

The list goes on.  While these guys are definitely in the second tier of centers, if you look above at Howard, Duncan, KG, Shaq, etc.  You'll see they all make between 15-20M/year.  Also note that all of the above mentioned players got their contracts when they were 25+ years old.  Beans is 22!  He's still learning and we get to pay for the beginning, middle, and end of his prime.  If he gets no better, he'll be a little overpaid.  If he improves, he'll be well worth the investment.  Giving the job of manning the middle to a young, undersized PF (BWright) or a slow, younger center (KLove) is ludacris.  If we dump Beans, we'll lose the entire BDiddy window, likely losing him in the process and going back to square 1 trying to build around Monta and BWright.  Please stop with the inane bashing on Andris.  Let's just say that Ben Wallace puts up 6 points, 9 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks while getting paid 15.5M, and isn't that overpaid.  STATS ARENT EVERYTHING!

by Dubs fan in Boston on Mar 10, 2008 9:14 AM PDT reply actions  

Let me clarify that last point...
Wallace is overpaid, but he's definitely worth at least $10M/season because he mans the middle well on defense.  He's a perfect fit with Lebron "Ball hog" James.  And that's the key, finding a good fit.

Name one center that would fit in with the Warriors.  They've gotta be fast, they've gotta be willing to do the little things that don't get publicity and fame, and they've got to work hard, and they've got to be fast.  Duncan?  Maybe.  KG?  Definitely.  Yao?  No f-ing way.  Boozer?  Maybe, he's not a center and he doesn't play defense.  Howard?  Yeah, probably.  Gasol?  I think so.  But the thing is that you can't just go out and get one of these guys.  You've got to be lucky beyond belief.  If it was as easy as saying, "Let's dump Monta and draft Jordan", you'd all do it in a heartbeat, but it's not.  Beans is a solid center who does his thing, doesn't demand touches, and finds a way to fit himself in.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Mar 10, 2008 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

lol
because the coach and his style isn't going to be around for long. Biedrins also did play good defense after a while. It's condescending to say because the franchise started winning we started thinking andris was good, no sir, he also started averaging double doubles which coincided with that, making him valuable. He doesn't get as many minutes as he should, I think he should play more, and he's only 21 years old. Also I think he has more post moves than we think, he can throw a hook shot with either hand and he's got a good up and under, plus he's extremely agile and quick for a 6 11 guy. He almost never gets the ball, I believe Nelson had a quote where he said they called 5 set plays for biedrins last year, and he scored on 4 of them, or something like that. he could be a 15-18 points a game player with 12 boards a night if the got the ball with some consistency and played 35 minutes or more. Bank on it. It's also dumb to say look at his stat line of 4 points and 2 rebounds, i mean yes he did have surgery, he came back earlier than expected. You're really grasping at straws when you think that justifies him not being a 6 year 60 million dollar player, because of a stat line he produced just days after coming back from surgery. Also in the second half he did a good job on howard, howard got something like 7 points and 3 rebounds in the second half alone, so biedrins was able to do good things.

by bigbenny11 on Mar 10, 2008 9:31 AM PDT reply actions  

AND
his weaknesses in the paint defensively are magnified because he has no help down in the low post, no help whatsoever. we look at the other teams rebounding and points in the paint and we want to act like it's biedrin's fault, which is a copout.

by bigbenny11 on Mar 10, 2008 9:32 AM PDT reply actions  

right
he struggles because he doesn't have help under the boards. but he never will have help under the boards. not if wright is the starting power forward. not if harrington starts. the best he'll get is help from azubuike, or some other wing player that happens to step up on a night. as good as biedrins is, he'll be on an island on the warriors, where he gets no help rebounding. our style of play will never merit paying 60 million to a decent center who plays half the game.

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 10, 2008 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

This doesn't make any sense
"He's going to be on an island because we'll never give him any help, so why pay him to do something nobody else will?"

You are poking holes in your argument by saying that Beans is going to be on an island playing defense.  If you dump him, you don't even have an island, you've just got open sea and open sailing for anybody driving the lane.

If we're going to be resigned to never grabbing any boards, at best we're going to be perennially a fringe playoff team that loses in the first round, lucky to make the second round.

BWright could be an answer at PF, he just needs to fill out and learn the NBA game.  Harrington needs to be a 6th man or a SF, not a starting center.  Monta is starting to pick up the knack for grabbing boards.  We have a good core of players.  They're like a fine wine, you've got to let them age a little.  Be patient, unless you actually have a reasonable trade suggestion that nets KG, TD, or Howard.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Mar 10, 2008 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

lol
"  If you dump him, you don't even have an island, you've just got open sea and open sailing for anybody driving the lane."

funny

"We're all corrupt bastards." - Don Nelson

by GameSix on Mar 10, 2008 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

iggy
have you been watching our centers for the last 10 years?  if you had been you'd appreciate andris like we all do.  quick name 10 centers you'd rather have right now-
in no particular order-
howard
bynum
duncan
yao
camby
gasol
stoudemire
boozer
jefferson

-thats all i can come up with.

passes it to the man...and boom goes the dynamite!

by sam23 @ Golden State Of Mind on Mar 10, 2008 10:54 AM PDT reply actions  

warrior centers of the past
Well if you have been watching Warriors games for the last 10 years then you would appreciate Andris even more.
Todd Fuller
Eric Dampier
Adonal Foyle
Rony Seikaly
Victor Alexander
Manute Bol
Andrew DeClerq

Yikes...

by Snake Eyez on Mar 10, 2008 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Real talk
He never stopped running!!!

by J2daZ on Mar 10, 2008 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

hey
you forgot

Felton Spencer
old Terry Cummings
Tim Young

warriors dont fish they hunt!

by VonteegoCummings on Mar 10, 2008 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

exactly
andris is the best big man we've had in at least 20 years.
passes it to the man...and boom goes the dynamite!

by sam23 @ Golden State Of Mind on Mar 12, 2008 12:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

GEEbus ... Some people here ...
... at the beginning of the season, (some) were saying Monta should go.

In the short space of 6 months, Monta has proven those nay-saysers absolutely wrong. We don't see those Monta rants here anymore.

Biens  ... stay tuned ...

by soem on Mar 10, 2008 12:08 PM PDT reply actions  

asdf
FTR, I'd just like to point out that most people were advocating trade Monta and let Buike start because he'll be cheaper, while I said he'd turn into D Wade without the handles. I'd like to pat myself on my back.

by J Rich 4 MVP on Mar 10, 2008 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

if
you did say that, I applaud you

by BD4mvp on Mar 10, 2008 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Pedophile?
didn't this BD4mvp call someone a pedophile on this website?

by goldenstatewarriors on Mar 12, 2008 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

Guarantee
He doesn't get $10 million a year (from the Warriors). The NBA brass is getting smarter about large contracts for mediocre players and if someone offers him that kind of money we need to let him walk b/c that would be a Foylesque move on any GM's part. He is a decent center in this league for sure - but limited skill set players (ala Ben Wallace) can be valuable pieces on contending teams (Pistons won a championship w/Wallace at center, Bulls won w/ Wennington, et. al.) and not wotrth the albatross salaries that most GSOM people think Beidrins will command. Bottom line is that Beidrins will never make $10 million per on the Warriors w/ Jackson and Monta and Baron - period.

by triplesix on Mar 10, 2008 12:18 PM PDT reply actions  

and
your argument that we need a dominant center has been disproved many of times in this league. What you need is quality NBA players and Beidrins is that.

by triplesix on Mar 10, 2008 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

To keep continuity...
You have to overpay by a little sometimes.  Any time a player hits the FA market, everybody has a chance to offer a contract.  If you're a GM from another team, aren't you at least going to put out a fair market offer for a young productive center?  If you're a GM for a team that's missing a center (like most of them), aren't you going to offer a little more than fair market value?  If you're McHale, wouldn't you love to pair Al Jefferson with a young, defensive minded, team-oriented center to lock down your front court for years to come?  Oh and add Derek Rose to the mix too.

Bottom line, there's a market, you can't just pay a guy what you think he's worth.  Other people are vying for services, have jobs to save, and are willing to take a gamble.  And then there's Isiah Thomas and the Knicks...  And if you have no backup plan, you're kinda screwed.  What's your post-AB backup plan?  Draft Kevin Love?  Pull Stromile Swift off free agency?  Great plan... just pay the man and be done with it.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Mar 10, 2008 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

andris
like what everyone said, he's valuable to our team. it's just how much are we willing to spend for what the man can do.
"If somebody come in your gym and score 72 points, you goin' to stop playin too." - Friend on Monta Ellis' 72 point highschool game

by SAV IT OUT on Mar 10, 2008 12:22 PM PDT reply actions  

HELLOOOOOOO
Judging by the other CENTERS out there, I'd rather give the $$$ to him, than not have a true center.

I honestly don't believe POB or KOSTA are ready to take that role, in fact, even earn that role for the W's.  BWRIGHT shouldn't even be in this conversation, because he's NOT a CENTER!

At least when FOYLE was given his contract, he was a CENTER, but undersized and lacking an OFFENSIVE game.  He ended up being more of a liability than help to the team.

I 100% agree that BEANS is a valuable part of our team, and if it takes giving him $10 million, based on what other CENTERS are projected to make, then so be it!  The whole FOYLE contract sucked, but they should have known he wasn't going to amase to anything more than being a back-up CENTER.  BEANS is currently a big part of our team, even when we do go small!  We can rely on him like no other at that position and that's why we should consider giving him what he garners from the current market!


"S.C. gooooo hooooome!!!"

by scottiepimppen on Mar 10, 2008 1:37 PM PDT reply actions  

Rebounding Machine At Best? Great!
The Warriors don't have a good rebounder on this team that gets consistent time other than Biedrins. Without him, we get constantly harrassed on the rebounds. He has a presence down low on D that may not show on stats and he is the most consistent option down low. Biedrins has the quickness and scoring ability that if we ran about 3 post plays for him per game, he'd be scoring at a much higher rate. We saw what happened with Monta Ellis in the Monty era. We had a coach that didn't play him, but anyone watching could see that he had huge benefits to the team while he was on. Right now Nelson prefers to have centers that can spread the floor. Bullsh*t? Probably. All we need Biedrins to do for the next year or two with Baron is to rebound, have a prescence down low and get about 10 points on high efficency. When Baron is gone, our offense will be a lot more team oriented with Monta being able to run the pick and roll a lot more and we won't have so many players who need the ball to be effective.

by CABANGBANG on Mar 10, 2008 2:05 PM PDT reply actions  

A'men
Although, your comments about Monta under Monty are unfair.  He was a rookie straight out of HS.  He was stuck behind BD, JRich, and Pietrus at the guard spots.  Did I mention that he was real green?  He turned it on at the end of the year (I remember getting excited about 25/8/6 in April that made me say: "If he gets any PT, I'm buying his jersey next year").  Anyways, Beans is great, I'd be much happier paying him a little more than he's worth than relying on guys still on their rookie contract or NBA retreads.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Mar 10, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

This again??
Do some people here over-rate AB? Yeah, sure. But there are also a few people here that under-rate him considerably. The big question here seems to be "How much is AB worth?"

Well, lets take a look at the numbers. I've chosen three guys who's games are similar to AB's and are no longer on their rookie scale contract. Hopefully this will give us a little perspective as to where Andris fits in. Keep in mind that these are most likely the same players that AB's agent will be pointing to when it comes time to re-sign him.

I decided to use stats per 36 minutes. This should give us an idea how these guys would compare if they were all playing average starter minutes. Note: these are stats from this season only.

Chandler  $11.39 Mil/yr
Age 25 MP 2060  FGM/A 5.0 8.3 .600%   FTM/A 2.4  4.0 .603%   Reb 12.7  Ast 1.1  Stl 0.6  Blk 1.0   Tov 1.9  PF 3.1  Pts 12.3

Dalembert  $10.94 Mil/yr
Age 26 MP 2079  FGM/A 4.7  9.1  .517%   FTM/A  2.5 3.5 .724%  Reb 11.0  Ast 0.6  Stl 0.5  Blk 2.5  Tov 1.9  PF 3.5  Pts 12.0

Kaman   $10.4 Mil/yr
Age 25 MP 1976 FGM/A 5.9 12.3 .478%  FTM/A  3.4  4.5 .751%  Reb 12.4  Ast 1.8  Stl 0.6  Blk 2.7  Tov 2.9  PF 3.0  Pts 15.1

Biedrins ????
Age 21  MP 1521  FGM/A 5.8  9.3 .627%   FTM/A 1.8  2.9 .612%   Reb 12.5   Ast 1.4   Stl 0.9   Blk 1.5    Tov 1.6   PF 4.5  Pts 13.3

I think it is fair to say that Andris belongs in this group. It would seem to me that the market is set and we can expect to see AB sign a long term deal at between $10-12 Mil/yr.

The only other options are a sign and trade or letting him walk. Given that it can be hard to get anything of value in a sign and trade I think the only move is to sign him.

It is reasonable to have some trepidation about handing out a big long-term contract (given the history of the W's front office) but AB is already producing like few centers in this league. I see no reason to pass on paying him fair market value for his services.

by olympicmike on Mar 10, 2008 3:55 PM PDT reply actions  

this reminds me of another post....
something about ab being weak?...seriously guys..how many flaming posts do we have to respond to?
Average GSOM'er Response: No Way! Here are the million reasons this is sheer bull crap and the stats to make you see reality!
Better Response: Yawn...ok ziggy you're right we should trade baron davis for the number one pick and draft kevin love..whatever you say...

by 11allstar on Mar 10, 2008 4:04 PM PDT reply actions  

Exactly
The motives for joining this latest Iggy-instigated pileup seem to be 1) setting Iggy straight (clearly isn't going to happen) (2) finding solidarity with others who oppose whatever Iggy's proposing (3) procrastinating on homework (entirely understandable) and (4) trying to put an end to the madness (see #1). I invoke the spirit of a certain news anchor: Good night, and good luck!

Iggy likes to get everyone else arguing, renews the argument no matter what others say, and enjoys the "debate" while others get upset.  As another poster said, the joke's on pretty much everyone except Iggy, and he knows that.  No wonder he enjoys this prank so much: it keeps working. Whoever likes to play that game, join in...The best I can say about reading this endless thread is that it's good to see how solidly people have come around to appreciating Andris's game.

by mikej @ Golden State Of Mind on Mar 10, 2008 9:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

the future
hey iggy, i apologize if this has already been mentioned in advance, as there's way too many comments to go through all of them...

alot of people have been mentioning the potential of AB , and that Nellie is holding him back... your response has been that that's exactly why we don't need to pay him, because he isn't allowed to do much...well i agree, but thats for only now...how much longer are the warriors going to be baron and nellie's team that shoots tons of 3's?   i'd say in the next 3-4 years, the warriors core will be monta (who doesn't shoot the 3), wright, and AB along with a new coach (I highly doubt nellie will be around when jack and bd are gone) who will bring in a new system taking advantage of the skills of AB and wright...

thoughts?

by workz22 on Mar 10, 2008 4:10 PM PDT reply actions  

interesting question
it's hard to imagine any nba coach accepting a front line that's that small, especially in the west. biedrins, while some people on this board have speculated that he's a top ten center in the league, is undersized for the position. wright, for all the things he could do in 3-4 years, will never be considered a big, low post scoring power forward. and monta is small for a shooting guard.

it's an interesting trio. it would win a lot of games. but when you compare it to portland's young trio (Roy, Aldridge, Oden), it's hard to say since oden hasn't done anything, but i'll speculate that i like the portland one better. Then the lakers have kobe in his prime for 3-4 more years, plus bynum, plus whoever as a third option (someone kupchiak will no doubt spend a lot of money in, i'll assume he'll be at least as good as odom). so i think they'll be better than us in 4 years too.

monta wright and biedrins is better than anything the warriors have had in terms of a future plan in a long time. and we should all be excited for it. but i still think, if we were running this team, you and i, we'd try to make moves to bring the team to the top. and i can't accept that that trio will ever win a championship, which should be the warriors ultimate goal for the next 4 years. Or sooner, since nelson wants to win before he retires.

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 10, 2008 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

and dumping beans for love accomplishes that?
after ALL this time, you're in the go-for-it-now camp? Could have fooled me.  Nothing puts a team back more toward the rebuild-a-thon side of things than dumping an effective proven vet who gives REAL tangible production for an unproven, vertically challenged, waistline enhanced, psuedo-center out of college with great fundamentals.  

You can't rebuild and play to win it all now at the same time.

"To my dear brother, Noompsy."

by Tim N Chris Burger on Mar 10, 2008 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

+1
It's funny: that one little comment urging us to go for it now has officially convinced me that Mr. Iggy believes 0% of the BS he's slinging and that he's 100% yanking everyone's chain.

You gotta give it up to him though: only three diaries out of the last 240 GSoM diaries have cracked 80 comments, and he's written all three of them. Squeaky wheel, grease, etc...

by Sleepy Freud on Mar 10, 2008 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

+1
This guy is a joke. Unfortunately the jokes on us. Us being the people who wasted our time trying to help him better understand the situation while all he was looking for was an endless argument where he gets to see his name in print over and over and over again.

by olympicmike on Mar 10, 2008 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

don't you guys like arguing about sports?
this stuff gets me through the day. i think the andris biedrins question is worth discussing, at the very least. and if i'm the only one on this board that will take the "anti-biedrins" side, i'll defend it to the death, if only so we have stuff to talk about in the middle of a four game stretch without games. i really believe this is hell of a debate, and it's been fun. i knew i needed to have a hard stance in the diary to get people wriled up. but isn't that why we all love sports?

i admit that before i posted about biedrins a week ago, the whole idea of letting him go was a half-baked observation i had while watching brandan wright play. but after these debates, i think we all have worked hard to make cases for and against biedrins (well, mostly me against, oh well.) i hope you guys don't mind me coming to this blog and posing controversial questions. i wouldn't go anywhere else on the internet to do this, i love this site. you guys are really smart and know a lot about basketball and about the warriors.

i just felt the diary section needed a little more punch than just the daily dubs (which i look forward to everymorning, like i'm sure you guys do.)

now let's draft kevin love! haha.

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 10, 2008 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

WHY EVEN A DISCUSSION?
lets just grab LOVE of UCLA.  Trade Biedrins, Monta, cash and our number 1 for the 1st rd draft pick and take LOVE....That should solve this.
warriors dont fish they hunt!

by VonteegoCummings on Mar 10, 2008 6:19 PM PDT reply actions  

the question of value
so we've refined this argument to biedrin's value, which is a good direction to take this. lots of you have made compelling arguments as to beidrins' value on the open market and as compared to other centers. let's look at it from a different perspective: his value to nelson/the warriors.

nelson has consistantly devalued the center is his system. he often plays with no center, giving up the defense in favor of offensive mismatches.

so on this team, with this coach, biedrins plays the position that is least valued, no matter how good he is at his roll. nelson would prefer to have a power forward who can rebound and block shots AND shoot and run and finish. that's why i think putting big money into the center position in the case of the warriors isn't economical. if we had a center by committee, like kosta, o'bryant, crosher, harrington, and maybe a second rounder this year, we'd be able to guard big men when we wanted to. when we didn't, we could slide harrington in at center and score more. biedrins isn't absolutely essential to our success, although he doesn't hurt. i'd rather us spend that kind of money on a better power forward (like brand or swift) that on a center who will always be devalued because he plays for the warriors.

i don't see paying a max contract for a center if nellie's the coach, even if other teams would give that kind of money to biedrins. does that make sense?

bottom line, he isn't overrated around the league, because big men that can go 10/10 will usually get a lot of money. i just don't think a player like that is imperative for our success. a center by committee that could come in and "bother" big men like ab did against howard would be enough. let's spend the money elsewhere, like on swingmen to replace mp and barnes, or a better power forward until wright is ready.

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 10, 2008 6:53 PM PDT reply actions  

Is he worth the money?
I agree that this is the more important question. I think everyone agrees that Biedrins is a good center and that we would want him on our team. However, the more important question is: is he worth the $10 million/year contract that he wants?
A lot of people have said that Iggy is not a "true fan" because he doesn't "support" Biedrins. There is nothing wrong with questioning whether he will be worth the contract he is asking for. I mean, change the location to Orlando. I'm sure that a lot of Magic fans like Rashard Lewis as a player, but cannot believe that he is being overpaid so much. I just do not want to see the Warriors make a similar mistake of overpaying a player, just because we want him. Antwan Jamison, Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy, Derek Fisher, etc... come to mind.

by 5 1 ROH on Mar 11, 2008 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

If that's all he had said
was that he wasn't sure Biedrins was worth the money I would have read the diary and moved on.  However,  the title is "Biedrins is overrated".  The first line calls out all of his fellow warrior fans for "over-rating" a guy whose skills cannot be replaced by anyone within the next few years without giving up something huge.  He then went on to make up facts to support his false thesis and put other people down who disagreed with him.  Iggy, I do question your loyalty to this team.  If Kevin Love gets drafted by someone else I am willing to bet that you will jump ship at that point.  I have loved this team since I couldn't walk.  We never won and I never lost faith or stopped watching.  Now I have a group of guys who play hard and win and I refuse to put them down.  To me that is what a fan does.  Do whatever you gotta do Iggy, but remember that you're posting on a forum full of fans like me and we are not willing to let you fill this blog with your crap with out overwhelming support for guys who deserve it.

BTW I am not against questioning the players who truly deserve to be questioned.  I was all about dumping Dunmurphy and I think Peitrus has shown us nothing this year until he realized he needed to play for next years contract and would not be traded.

sarunas is my father

by williedillssf on Mar 11, 2008 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

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