Why Can't The Warriors Blow Teams Out?

by Squall on Mar 20, 2008 10:04 PM PDT Comment 27 comments

After watching last nights game against the Grizz and nearly keeling over at another 20 point lead almost lost, again. I began to speculate on why we can't have a drama-free filled night of Warrior basketball. Why can't the Warriors blow teams out?

Last night Baron looked tired, probably one of the first times this season I thought that. Yes he hit some clutch shots, yes he jammed his finger, but a finger doesn't account for the rest of your body looking run down. Also for the stat whores, Baron's plus/minus was -6, he was the only starter whose plus/minus wasn't above +3.

Jackson looked sloppy, during one point of the 3rd quarter he had three straight turnovers in a row (Helping the Warriors to 20 turnovers first time they've reached that since Dec 31st against, up and coming opponent Houston Rockets). Yes Jackson hit clutch free throws to seal the victory, yes he's probably playin with some other smaller injuries he doesn't let others know about, but Jackson is human. Stat whore stat #2, Jackson played the 4th most minutes of all the starters against the Grizz, but led the team in points.

So where am i going with this, you and I are both asking ourselves...

Baron and Jackson are two of the main pieces of this team and we can't run them into the ground especially since this crunch time for the Warriors.

So when the Warriors are up 20 with more then half a game to play, why isn't our 2nd unit made up of guys who could start for any Warriors team starting from 98-2003.

Heres our 2nd unit:
PG Watson
SG Buke
SF Barnes
PF Wright/Cro/Al
C Al/Cro/Wright

Sorry Kosta...

Oh, and you too Marco...

Yes none of the big three are there but if the Warriors can keep the lead above 15 for 5-8 minutes isn't that worth while? Then if the lead begins to regress plug in any combo of Baron/Jack/Monta. The Warriors have to learn to win without those 3, not that they are going anywhere anytime soon but it would help keeping them fresh.

Wright is an energy player for us, he can run and play some D. Watson is quiet and got some of the biggest minutes of the season last night and produced with Baron and Monta on the floor at the same time as him. Buke is a clutch player who deserving plays in the 4th quarter, but the guy barely sweats cause hes not on the floor enough. Al is Al need I say more? Barnes has been wildly inconsistent which doesn't help my argument but I'd still put him on the floor.

Ok I'm done with my hangover speech, I went about it a round about way and sounded much more intelligent when at the bar last night speaking with a gentlemen who was watching the game with me. But what do you guys think, Warriors are deeper then an 8 man rotation they were last year, but we don't seem to give it much of a shot, even when we're up 20 points which is what nearly broke us down in the 4th quarter guys ran out of steam which could've been avoided with our 2nd unit was used a bit more in the 2nd/3rd quarters.
Go Dubs.

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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because of nellie

this is how small ball works

by pree t zinta on Mar 16, 2008 12:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

B/C Don Nelson...

Doesn't want to play his rookies. If they Warriors were blowing the weak teams out, he'd be forced to sit his veterans and allow them to rest up for the big games. That would mean he would be contradicting his theory that rookies can't be trusted in any game situation.

by david240z on Mar 22, 2008 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

defense

we built those leads by riding on our momentum and hitting some big shots or running the break. Obviously, we can't do that the whole entire time. Not on most nights at least. So when the other team starts making a few shots and the game slows down we revert to our half-court offense which will be a jumper/3pter most of the time.

At some point, the Warriors will clamp down on D. Which, sadly, is when the opponent is within striking range. That explains a good drama before a Warrior win. Or sometimes, the frustrating loss when the opposing team starts making tough shots.

by lightz0ut on Mar 16, 2008 12:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

We are a jumpshooting team with no inside

Offensive Threat. If our shots fall down we can beat/outscore anyteam. If they dont, we lose to even the worse teams.

by Delinquentsoul on Mar 16, 2008 1:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

ummm

you do know we're like number 1 in points in the paint..

by saintdee on Mar 16, 2008 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

paints on the paint...

are due mostly to us (rank #1) causing turnovers resulting in fast break layups.

We all know we dont have anyone inside. Goose gets his points from the many missed bricks by the other four guys shooting outside and scores sometime when he sets a high pick.

What I mean is, when ur best post up player is your star PG, that just proves how sorry we are in the inside. Thats how this team was assembled for Nellieball. I think we attempt the most 3s in the NBA. They spread the floor by having everyone outside the arc(I.E. even our "PF-C" like Harrington and Austin can all shoot threes). Too bad we our "shooters" arent the best 3pt% wise. We shoot the most threes and when they fall down, we win. When they dont..we lose. Example: Refer to the last Suns/GSW game. If Jax or Harrington had made one or two of their many missed 3pointers (They were 2 of 9 combined) and we would have a chance to win. http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/boxscore?gid=2008031321

Besides Monta and Baron (sometimes Jax with his "Im looking at the ground" drive to the hoop), theres not many other guys that we see can drive inside CONSISTENTLY for a layup.

by Delinquentsoul on Mar 16, 2008 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

if your

going to apply it like that all teams are jump shooting teams. What team can win if they're shots aren't going in? All teams are jumpshooting teams...

by saintdee on Mar 16, 2008 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

but

if the jump shot is a higher percentage shot then it has more of a chance to go in.

by belilaugh on Mar 16, 2008 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

because

the warriors are the worst defensive team in the league. it's hard to keep a lead when you can't defend. there's really no combination of players nelly can play that can shut any team down consistantly for long stretches of the game. but that's probably his fault anyway.

by Iggy_Zohn on Mar 16, 2008 4:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

We have the worst defensive PPG allowed in the NBA

We allow opponents to score 107.84 and we score 110.95 a game. Its hard for us to blow out teams because we're more focused on outscoring the other team rather defending them

by fat slice moses on Mar 16, 2008 4:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

opponents adjustments

many cogent comments above - we are a poor defensive team with no true low post threat to go to when we have a "need to score" possession when the opponent goes on a run; we over depend on the outside ...

one additional possibility is that lower tier NBA teams may "target" GS as a winnable game - extending their best players more minutes in an effort to grab a W, while most teams (and certainly the better ones) monitor minutes closely and will protect their players' health a bit more ( or, a lot more ) than Nelson has the luxury of doing. I'd have to do some math to be sure, but I'd guess that teams extend themselves more minutes if they have a shot at the W

by hardcore on Mar 16, 2008 5:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Could pace be the problem?

While conditioning helps, the inherent issue with uptempo basketball is that it's extra taxing on the body. I believe that the W's can't play at that pace for 48 min. so they have to pick their points. You see it from Baron. Last year we lost a lot of games b/c the collective squad would go balls out for 3 quarters and become gassed once the 4th quarter rolled along. It amounted to lazy defense and Baron pounding the ball while everyone stood around until the shot clock went down and jacking up a shot. This year, instead, the W's generally start the game off with less intensity and pace the game close enough to finish off the team in the 4th quarter. In order for us to start beating teams by a significant margin, we're going to need consistency outside of baron monta and Jax. Uptempo teams generally get consistent production from at least 7 people. The W's get it from only 3.

by ThermoElectro on Mar 16, 2008 5:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

i don't know

but sometimes its what makes me want to watch the warriors. i mean, its WAY more fun to watch the warriors than the spurs. don't you agree that the spurs are boring?

My name is Henry. I'm currently a sophomore of Lincoln High School in San Francisco. 100% American Born Chinese, half man - half asleep.

by CatchAndShoot on Mar 16, 2008 8:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

nope

Ginobli is one of the most exciting players in the game, and the Spurs play the game "the right way" to use coach Brown's terminology.

by hardcore on Mar 16, 2008 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defense

I thought about this. In the past, there have been certain teams who are likely to have blown you out, and if you caught them on an off shooting night it would be a close game. The Spurs last year, the Celtics this year, they force lesser teams to play over their heads in order to compete. Not the Warriors. Our lackluster defense allows mediocre opposing players to gain confidence and become "Warrior Killers." Part of the Warriors' streakiness is that they let down their level of defense when they feel comfortable and allow opponents to bild momentum. Then, they realize they will need to play D but by then it is hard to stop the bleeding (fortunately the pressure of the fourth quarter along with the Warriors increased intensity usually allows them to pull it out). The grind it out teams have a huge advantage over the not as good grind it out teams. The Warriors have the exact same dis/advantage against all teams.

Just my thoughts, they may be wrong.

by belilaugh on Mar 16, 2008 9:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

It's nellieball

The warriors also have the most comeback wins after trailing by double digits. 15 of them I think. The way nellieball works is that we'll have a stretch run where we go up by double digits, but that lead could easily slip away. It also works vice versa. But since our team is actually pretty good and can clamp down on D when it matters, we win most of our games and end up having a good run in the 4th to win it.

by Calamity on Mar 16, 2008 10:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

a few things...

I wouldn't say the Warriors are worst defensive team in the leaue.

The worst defensive team isn't #1 in steals. The worst defensive team in the league can't be #1 in opponents turnovers. check the stats...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistics?stat=teamstatmisc&sort=tos&league=nba&season=20 08&seasontype=2&avg=pg&order=true&split=999

what I will agree with is that we're the most inconsistent defensive team, who like many have said, allow a high amount of points. Sometimes people have an easy time scoring off the warriors, but other times, which is often, they may have a high FG% but if you factor that in with turnovers, their % of scoring posesions goes
WAY DOWN.

When the warriors win, it's often because of our defense, when the warriors score big, it's often because of the defense too. Hardly "worst".

Second thing... why is it bad for our PG to be our best post player? Our ability to flip the paradigm is why we're so good. And it works doesn't it? What does it matter how we get our points in the paint... easy buckets (by easy I mean high % shots) are easy buckets. As for all the skills Baron has, Be thankful because I have two words: Bimbo Coles.

Big men with the ability to score back to the basket is a tough and rare thing to have in this league. There aren't too many available very often, you either have to get kinda lucky (Pau, KG) or you end up with Eddy Curry. I certainly don't want the latter.

by Baron Von DOOM on Mar 16, 2008 11:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Having our star PG that can post up

is a very good advantage. But when ur PG is our best Postup Player, that just shows u how weak we are (in all other positions) with our inside game.

by Delinquentsoul on Mar 16, 2008 11:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

but when all those players have...

other ways to contribute. Harrington knocks down 3's, Biedrens runs the pick and roll, I'm saying I just don't believe it's a big problem, or much of a problem at all, especially when the Warriors score inside on drives so much.

Other than Baron, there's also jackson who posts well both close to the hoop and can back a defender down from outside, and Harrington in my humble opinion is a great post player. He often he takes the 3 per request of Nellie, but he can post at the 4.

And again the warriors score a lot inside, to me it doesn't matter so much of their back is to the basket or if they're driving... it's still inside scoring. And on top of it, Pietrus has been pretty good with the rebound and put backs lately. Inside scoring? yes. The knicks have two great "inside scorers" in Zack Randolph and Eddie Curry, what does it get theM? Hopefully a new Head Coach and Team President...

A bigger concern to me would be the warriors inconsistent post DEFENSE rather than the Warrior "bigs" ability to develop a jump hook.

by Baron Von DOOM on Mar 17, 2008 1:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Steals

Even though steals are considered in the defensive stat category, i dont really look at it as a guage of a team's defensive prowess. The Warriors gamble a lot, reach, try for deflections, and play the passing lanes. One thing about gambling is that sometimes you look like a genius and sometimes you sacrafice your defensive position going for the steal.

Their interior defense is mostly subpar and their rotations are not consistently fast enough. To be strong in those areas are the the true marks of a good defensive team.

I pray i never have to use a gun again.

by ssmokinjoe on Mar 22, 2008 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

but to avoid detracting from

the original intent of the thread... I think agree with Lightz0ut that it's the INCONSISTENT and unsustained Defense that keeps the blowouts to a minimum.
And like Barnett always says in the telecasts, this is the NBA. They're all professionals for a reason, and almost any given night anybody beating anybody is POSSIBLE. (emphasis possible, not meaning likely)

by Baron Von DOOM on Mar 17, 2008 1:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

and yes...

I think they looked very tired. and I hate the +/- stat... it's only an absolute indicator to me if the player played every minute of the game. I'll shut up now, I've said enough

by Baron Von DOOM on Mar 17, 2008 1:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Are we really failing?

For starters, one would have to demonstrate that we fail to blow away our opponents more than our record would suggest. Our scoring differential predicts a record of 39-26. We're actually 41-24, which suggests we've won a couple more 'close games' than our overall efficiencies predict. But overall, our point differential is in line with our record.

I suspect that we're not that much different than most teams in terms of the distribution of blowouts vs. total wins. I seem to remember many, many, many close games when we stunk where I was left thinking how amazing it was that we stood close to a good team for 45 minutes, only to lose at the end. Tables are turned. Few games are blowouts, but that doesn't mean that the better team isn't usually winning.

by jae on Mar 17, 2008 5:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

A cardinal but not Brian, sin of the Warriors

Always playing up or down to the competition for who knows how long.

Thank god they've done a hell of a job staying well over .500 this season and also have been in most games, not getting blown out a lot themselves like the old Warriors-even when Baron (first) arrived.

The Warriors gave it back and forth to the Spurs twice this year but also have the Hawks or Grizz play nearly up to par with them.

The gift and the curse of a free flowing offense with defense built on their hands breaking up plays constantly more than staying in front of a man, really.

by back2back51s on Mar 18, 2008 9:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No Blowouts

I've often wondered the same thing. How many games this year have the Dubs been up by 15 or more and end up winning by the slightest of margins? Well, a lot!

The Dubs point blank give up the most points. Nellie is going to bring it to you on absolutely every play on offense. If the shot clock were only 18 seconds, the Dubs would still never get a shot clock violation. With that said, they don't put as much energy on D. When they do, the Dubs are the best team in the NBA. They have THE best fast break in the league and it always gets started based on their D. Basically, the Dubs rest on D though and it bites them in the a**. That's why we can't blow teams out. They give other teams way too many opportunities for us to blow them out. Our D in essence sucks and we also take way too many jump shots.

by gabezgsw on Mar 18, 2008 1:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Where is

Dennis Rodman when you need him:-)Joke aside I think that with a player like him we would be champions, he would make Duncans, Boozers, Gasols cry on a regular basis.

by buky on Mar 21, 2008 9:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs