STRATEGIC PLANNING: Dubs 08-09 and beyond
I notice a lot of evaluations happening in various diaries, but I wanted to see if we can conduct some focused conversation related to how the Warriors need to make STRUCTURAL CHANGES to their current makeup.
Of course, I definitely want the Dubs to win out, and there is still a chance of making the playoffs. So don't take any of this as giving up!
Here are my quick thoughts (hopefully you will help me work these ideas out):
- WE CAN'T RELY ON STEVE JAX SO MUCH OFFENSIVELY. This may be a no-brainer, but I'm thinking that Stephen Jackson needs to be our Robert Horry, maybe our Lamar Odom, but relying on him to score 20 points a night is going to doom us to suffering through all sorts of 5 for 17 evenings. The guy doesn't have enough diversity in his scoring to be one of our major scorers. Which brings me to the next point...
- WE NEED TO BRING IN ANOTHER SCORER. For some reason, our hodge-podge of Al Harrington, Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus and Kelenna Azubuike is not reliable enough to supplement our top scoring guys, B-Diddy, Monta and Steve Jax. Harrington disappears at critical moments, MP3 and Barnesie are head cases (sorry Matt, much respect, I hope you return to form), and Kelenna is not quite there yet. Basically, one way to analyze the game against the Nuggets is to look at J.R. Smith. (For you old-timers, we need a Vinnie "The Microwave" Johnson.) We needed that guy to pick us up when one of the Big 3 is struggling.
- WE NEED TO LET B. WRIGHT DEVELOP, FOR BETTER OR FOR WORSE. When Biedrins made that crazy pass in the 4th quarter, before the game was really over -- some no-look bounce pass that probably hit a Warrior Girl smack in the kisser -- he was doing too much. The guys is really sweet at doing what he does - solid rebounding, some nice in-the-paint scoring, an occasional block and steal - but he will not be our "Power Point" forward, aka C-Webb at his hay-day. B. Wright could be that guy. His length, agility, balance, dexterity - all point to a really talented future. If he can gain 15 pounds this off-season, he needs to play 20 minutes a game next year. We need those blocks, those dunks, those post plays. We need the twin to Andris' tower.
- THE NELLIE FACTOR: CAN HE LEARN FROM HIS DISCIPLES, OR IS HE DOOMED TO REPEAT THE PAST? George Karl going to the zone defense after the first quarter was the apprentice destroying the master. He out-nellied Nellie: making changes to maximize match-ups, creating structural problems for the opponent. When Karl switched, he took the upper hand; Nellie did not have a good response. At times, Nellie gets caught up in his ways, and it is frustrating to watch. Now, of course, I don't know who else could have brought the Warriors from the doghouse to 47 wins in two years like Nelson has done. But late in the season, as we have lost these big games, I would have liked to see some more flexibility. I don't know if Keith Smart is the answer, but I'm not sure how much further Nellie can take us.
I've got more thoughts, but I'd like to see what you think the critical priorities are. What next steps do you recommend? What are the key analyses of our current structure?
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
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47 comments
Comments
A big one
by belilaugh on Apr 11, 2008 9:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
No doubt
by OaktownWarrior on Apr 11, 2008 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
bad drafts.
Of course let's not lose sight of the fact that this team is still close to a 50 win team. Not making the playoffs (as seems likely now) stings, but in reality, I don't think there's that much more you could expect from the team given what they had to work with. In any other year, high 40 wins gets you a 5, 6, or 7 seed in the playoffs. Reactionary movements to the rare event rarely work out for the best.
by jae on Apr 11, 2008 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Come on now...
Coming from overseas... still young... dude has got to have some adjustment time. Very weak grounds to argue that he's a bust at this point.
Do we have reason to be concerned... for sure but the way Nelli fails to utilize his bench, you've got a very weak argument that we didn't see more of Belinelli because he's a bust.
by Dubs Wise on Apr 11, 2008 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bust?
I would love to be wrong, but nothing in what he did suggests that he's just waiting to blossom, and very little in what he did in Europe suggests that either. He's a "shooter" who never seemed to shoot for a high percentage and has never shown that he does anything else for you (like pass or rebound) to compensate for this. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We haven't really seen him play that much. It's true there are some surprises, but the safe bet based on what we do know, which is significantly more than nothing, is that he won't ever amount to much.
by jae on Apr 11, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Weak...
And if you think he should be written off because he's a streaky shooter then that same argument goes for Jackson. Field goal percentage for a shooter like him is a poor litmus test. Only time will tell how valuable he can be as a shooter. Does his potential to get hot justify letting him play even when shots aren't falling. For Jackson the answer to that is yes. Belinili hasn't gotten enough burn in order to make any kind of solid judgment.
Unless you've had access to Warriors practices there's no way you've see enough to say that he does nothing else for you.
Finally, one big factor is the kid's ego. If you've seen or heard any interviews with him it's obvious that he's very high on himself... which probably is part of the reason, like for Jackson, that he can get crazy hot once he starts to feel it. Riding the pine all year had to take its toll on his confidence. We'll only know next year if he has the mental fortitude to overcome an unremarkable rookie showing and still blossom.
Bottom line... your making a strong argument, basically writing a 22 year old player off, and you've got a very weak foundation to do so.
by Dubs Wise on Apr 11, 2008 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
2 cents
Jackson's track record is NBA level, with a ring. If anyone kept Marco on the pine it was KAz who was able to earn a higher rung on the substitution ladder.
by hardcore on Apr 11, 2008 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
what about some rest?
Could Marco have provided a spark while they got some rest... who knows? He played pretty well in the Memphis game recently.
But Nelli thought the answer was no, so he never gave him a real shot. I think Don's stubbornness and his failure to allow young players the opportunity to surprise him in games is the reason Marco got no burn.
by Dubs Wise on Apr 11, 2008 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
partially yes, partially no
by hardcore on Apr 12, 2008 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The way i see it.
Baron can be so much tougher than he is on most nights. But then again, he can't get the rest he needs to be a slasher each night. So that is a testament to how poorly Nelson used his bench this year.
by kenntoe on Apr 11, 2008 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah blood
Bellinelli
è venuto a mancare.
Nessun minuti!
Più tempo!
Allora vediamo.
Capisci????
by KennySeagle on Apr 11, 2008 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
what's up w/ the zone just killin' us
by diggitydawg510 on Apr 11, 2008 9:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
what makes you think
And since Nellie doesn't really rein Jax and Baron in (just the opposite), what makes anyone think that the rein of threes will be cut back (although if Barnes isn't around some of the really stupid threes will be cut back)?
And what makes anyone think Nellie will change his love affair with small ball and mis-matches to anything resembling a half court or more importantly, a defensive oriented team?
To summarize, let's hope Nellie doens't take his option and enjoys his 68th year in stress free Mauai. Then we will have a chance to make the changes and others suggest......
CWebb is undoubtedly the answer but I forgot the question.
by commish on Apr 11, 2008 10:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
actually...
...and it's like that! Coz' that's the way it is... Dubz!
by Tony.psd on Apr 11, 2008 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
When I step back and look at this
Most legit teams easily have two to three allstar caliber players or a superstar and an allstar and some depth
This team had a great season way over their heads. I am worried about next year too. Monta is emerging but can we count on Baron? Where is that other star talent going to come from?
by Zig on Apr 11, 2008 10:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
yoyos suck
The irony of the past 2 weeks is that as we've been losing, everyone has been saying, "Where's MP3? We've got to get him back!" Jax even called him out (bad move, even though I know Jax has been playing hurt all year -- true warrior!).
Last night Nellie wouldn't give MP3 a chance to get going, even when it became clear that we were going flat after the 1st period. I don't think Mike played for more than 2 consecutive minutes at any point during the game. We were clearly struggling, clearly flat, and Nellie kept sticking him in then yanking him. Mike got a few bad calls early on (as in, questionable, not dumb) and he just has no rope. That's why he wants to leave. He wants to play. And before he went out hurt he was making BIG plays, energy plays, in critical games -- when he was starting. He was a true, athletic catalyst for this team (something we really need). Now he's back on the bench, out of the rotation, and we look flat and shallow.
Props to Nellie for making this team believe in themselves, and for getting us over the hump, but I can't take his inconsistent, undisciplined approach much longer... He's laid the foundation, as he has done numerous times for other teams. It's time to create some structure and depth if we want to build a sustainable, successful team going forward.
by djbizyb on Apr 11, 2008 11:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So True
I'm still disappointed that he has not tried to develop the bench at any point this season. Even if a rook shows some promise (i.e. POB vs. Clippers, Bellinelli Vs. Grizzlies) they are not given a chance to show consistency. He has created an atmosphere that will cause his seldom used bench players to try a little too hard when given the opportunity instead of playing a specific role.
Hopefully next season, he begins to develop that trust and we build a deeper roster. Then again, Denver may still trip up and we are premature on talking about next season.
by tangel29 on Apr 11, 2008 11:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Nellie will never
away from this coach, just to shine somwhere else.
The only thing he cares of is his $$$$$$$, that's why he was so stubborn last year before he returned, and that is why he plays only players that are proved in his opinion.
He's a coward IMO.Look at Adelman for example who gave a chance to players we never heard of.And what did they do?we all know.
by buky on Apr 11, 2008 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ugh
by GameSix on Apr 11, 2008 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know what I'm talking about
One bird doesn't mean the fall is coming.
So cut the nonsense talk and think first coz I know I have.
by buky on Apr 12, 2008 3:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
by barrance on Apr 11, 2008 12:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
what to do next year.
Sure, it wouldn't hurt to get another "scorer" but in terms of maximizing returns on investment, I don't think that another scorer is really going to provide the most bang for the buck. I don't think it would help that much. Reality was that scoring wasn't tops on the list of problems. The team was tops in points scored, in the top 10 in points per shot and adjusted FG%. Another 'scorer' only helps if, when things go cold, he immediately takes the shots away from others and scores himself. That's rare and in terms of rewards for investment, less likely to heavily boost the win total than looking at the defensive end of the court.
Problem wasn't getting the points so much as surrendering points. We've been in the bottom 10 in the major defensive categories. EVERY team has some lulls in getting the ball in the basket from time to time. I suspect that another gunner is less likely to regularly solve that problem than improving the defense would make it less critical.
The Warriors defensive strategy was to force turnovers rather than to deny good looks or seal off second chance shots by owning the boards. That can work, but it only takes you so far. We can blame Nellie for it to some degree, but let's face it: this team isn't championship caliber talent. It's upper half of the league, and that almost always gets you to the playoffs, but that's about it.
by jae on Apr 11, 2008 12:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
SUBSTITUTION PATTERNS
by triplesix on Apr 11, 2008 12:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I also don't think...
On a side note, I wish that we would have drafted Leon Powe instead of Kosta. Isn't he the kind of guy we need? He's playing pretty damn well for the Celtics in limited PT.
by barrance on Apr 11, 2008 12:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
LEON!
by OaktownWarrior on Apr 11, 2008 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the funny thing about Nellie...
by triplesix on Apr 11, 2008 12:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
BIG MEN!
Who's going to do that for us now? Andris? BWright? Kosta Perovic? POB? Al Harrington? Austin Croshere? No way!
Also, I wouldn't mind seeing the following players out of here if it ment we could get some size in the Bay:
POB
Kosta Perovic
MP3
CJ Watson
Belinelli
Austin Croshere
Get'em outta here. 5 out of those 6 players rarely ever suited up for us anyhow. Get'em outta here!!!
by gabezgsw on Apr 11, 2008 1:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We allready have
And what you propose is to play regular kind of b-ball not small ball(or can this muscle guy run and shoot threes?), with actually some kind of D.
So you are subconsciously telling us to get rid of Nellie not those 5/6 guys!!
GET IT
by buky on Apr 11, 2008 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
bench scoring
And who else out there that our bench next year looks ok? Watson, Buike, Marco, and Wright, Harrington/Croshere?
by gunwing54 on Apr 11, 2008 4:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
TOO PERIMETER
by gWARRIORSs on Apr 11, 2008 4:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah it looks ok but
Barnes is another MIA bench player...and no I am not spilling all this just because the Denver game...I have been and always will be a dubs fan. But Barnes will not be picked up by any team at the price he wanted the way he played all season. He spent all season picking up technicals. Sure I would like to see him come back, but not for over 4 mil. Pietrus could easily fall into this category too. His performance in the few games since his latest injury barring the Denver game were great. But with his whining and public expression of being unhappy, I doubt he will be resigned at a higher price than we payed for him this season.
Al, Al, Al, Al, Al. What the heck happened? He played so many games where he was either dead on or cold as ice. If he was on, the Warriors won; as Barnett said. On his off games more pressure was put on the starting three. Just the way it goes I guess. Good hustle all year though.
And here's the part that no one wants to hear or talk about:
How much further would J-Rich would have taken the Warriors? If I could bet on it, I bet they would have a comfortable sixth seed at the very least. Hell, I bet they would have made it to the Conference Finals if they didn't have to play Utah.
But again, Brandon Wright looks like the piece we need and if he adds 15-25 pounds he will start looking scary. As you guys have stated, our youth looks to be promising. There will be a few free agents this year that might look good in a dubs jersey. And just wait until that extra 10 million is off from Foyle's contract and they have some cap space to work with.
Here's to the next three games, and to the Jazz and the Rockets. We still get to see one of my favorite matchups: Warriors v. Suns
GO WARRIORS!!!!!
by danielholl on Apr 11, 2008 4:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
On the flip side...
by ThermoElectro on Apr 11, 2008 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's all about the B's!!!
First time posting and first year season ticket holder following playoff rounds last year and moving to the US 2 years ago! Firstly I must say this has been an amazing season to have been part of and I hope many more. I have made many great friends in Oakland from mytime this year at the arena. I went to the away game in Dallas the other week and was one of the few Warrior fans in that arena and in that game I saw, I believe where many of the issues we have as team come from.
For me it's all about the B's!
Bench - Nellie has not used the bench anywhere near as much a he should of, IMHO. There have been games when the team is coasting and Baron is still on the court? The bench should have had much more time this year...period.
Brandon - This kid is good, I mean REALLY good, he is young, very Young, he has a lot to learn, but he has real potential with confidence, TIME on the court and a few more pounds to become a truly superb player for us in the future! Brandon weighing in at 210 - 220 lbs plus would be a hell of a force! He needsto get to know Kelena's fitness coach!
Baron - I think Baron is a phenominal player and certainly does not get anywhere near the praise he deserves. However.....whether it's tiredness, or whatever it is, he is not chasing the ball like he did last year, is it me, or does he look like he is getting bigger? In the playoffs last year he looked lean and hungry, I cant say the same currently and he has a lot more chat for the refs than last year, which leads me to my next..
Backchat - In recent games, Stack and Baron have spent more time strolling back up the court bitching to a ref about a bad call, whilst a fastbreak has gone flying past?? We all know GSW gets the worst calls in the league for whatever reason and Stack.....get used to it man, they are never gonna call a foul on you! The backchat, the more points we lose period, throgh either Technicals, missed Defense, Ref's getting pissed, whatever it is, backchat aint gonna change a thing, leave that to us fans!!
Bellinelli - I just dont think any of us can give comment on Rocky! The kid (even though he does not look like one!) is sooooo green to the NBA, I believe he has looked shell shocked at the leap and differene between the European game and the US Pro game. However, he is definitely one of those players, that give him the time and that means court time Nellie.... He will feed off the atmosphere that the Arena creates, which is like no other arena I have ever experienced before and that includes Wembley Stadium in London during Cup Final with 80,000 football lunatics!
Barnes - I can never take anything away from a player who shows the work load and effort that Barnes does. Everytime he comes on the court and hits the fast break,there is one place he wants to go...the other end....fast and time after time we miss a simple easy pass into him for a quick two! Ellis and Barnes together on a fast break are probably as quick as any in the league!
Boooooke - Kelena grows with every game, he is a real bright star for us for the future, he has power, shot and dribble, we all know Ellis is going to be our future Captain Extra-ordinary!!! but some of his young team mates will offer truly superb compliment.
Ballgame - As team it's about heart, it's about fight...but it's most importantly about "Ballgame". That means every game you play is a new game, there is no "we should win this one!". Every game is tough and most importantly we have to play a Ballgame to beat the opposition, not just stick to a formula (swing, kick, shoot) because "that's what we do". Some nights it isnt going to work, the bullets will be blanks! So as Denver proved last night, you change your game if it's not working and try something else, and fair play to them last night, they did this with devastating effect.
Battle - It is a battle out there, it's not going to be given to you and I truly believe that the young players must watch last years playoffs and understand...it wasnt the players that made that run. It was the team spirit, the fans the mindset and the desire to Battle...if the young guys coming in realise that, they can take anyone as they have proved this! year.
Boozer - Carlos is the type of player we are missing... period. We need that Big, powerful "i'm gonna smash this over your head" type of power in the low post. This is not changing who GSW are or their game, if anything it will open up the floor for our devastating shooting game. But.....when we dont get a quick point on the fast break, having a boozer to be so dangerous in the low post, will not only take huge pressure of the like of Jack to try and drive in, but it wil open the floor to our really quick guys to steal in or shoot with more time down range. There is rumour we are courting some 7 foot 5 Eatern Block player, but for us, it's not about height...it's power...we need power and combat, not height and reach!
Finally....
Believe...
Even speaking as a rookie and a Brit, we have I believe, an amazingly talented young bench which even next year, will start to make huge inroads into our conference rivals, with more time, in some cases more "power" (Brandon, Beans) etc. We have one of the youngest teams in the NBA, this young talent if bolstered with the likes of a Boozer, will become a very powerful, yet most importantly....consistant team and I would trade a little "show" for a bit more consistancy any day of the week!
09 will continue to be the next step in the Warriors growth...have faith...believe.... it will happen!
Sorry it went on a bit....just had to vent something from last night!
by BritWarriorGSW on Apr 11, 2008 5:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
hahaha!
Maybe some positivity is needed on this board.
by kenntoe on Apr 11, 2008 7:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
you must've read
cool, thx
by hardcore on Apr 12, 2008 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
lmao nice video
by 8monta on Apr 11, 2008 8:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This is the key to victory next season
by RSIZ510 on Apr 11, 2008 10:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yup
Seriously, propose a deal that works salary-wise and allows us to keep Monta and Biedrins. I can't wait to hear it.
by Sleepy Freud on Apr 12, 2008 3:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
GET IT-GOT IT
So you are subconsciously telling us to get rid of Nellie not those 5/6 guys!!
GET IT
Well there's nothing better than our current Dubs, especially Nellie. The league is chalked full of 6'6"-6'9" players which the Dubs already have which is great by me. I love BD, SJAX, Andris, Monta and Al. How about someone on the bench who can come in to be able to run, play D- which the Dubs are near worst in many categories, block shots, pull boards and disturb the other teams offensive flow? If that player could also be able to hit 12 foot shots too, that would be great as well. Well that player is Adonal Foyale...LOL Seriously though, if we had that element, and by that I mean someone with size and mobility, it would fill a void that is much needed to round out an already great team. I don't see the Dubs having an increase in wins next year with POB, Kosta Perovic, MP2(my bad), Croshere, CJ Watson and Belinelli on the bench. Maybe even Barnes too. Belinelli got shafted and won't see much more time next year than he did this year. Why would he with Nellie being so trigger shy on young players as evident with BWright and the before mentioned.
Run and gun small ball is the best to watch for hoop junkies like myself. Why not? Its fast and at a pace that is like none other, but its also the death of us. Ying-Yang. Positive-Negative, Peaks-Valleys. What I mean by that is balance. The Dubs need a little more balance. Volatility best describes the Dubs. At some point conventional hoops gets you to the promise land when it comes to the best players on Earth. Look at the best teams in the history of the NBA. They all had a big man that brought that element the Dubs are so desperately missing. An inside presence! Miken, Russell, Wilt, Kareem, Moses Malone, Hakeem, Shaq and Tim Duncan. What do they all have in common aside being large humans? Rings! A lot of them!
BTW, Nellie's opinion of the best player that ever lived was a center. His former teammate and record 11 time NBA champ-Bill Russell
GET IT?
by gabezgsw on Apr 11, 2008 11:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
you should talk to Nellie
GOT IT
by buky on Apr 12, 2008 4:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
more balanced !!!!
by ruderu22 on Apr 12, 2008 7:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
re Nelson
Nelson plays the talented players he is given - you want more Kosta & POB? When Croshere finally got healthy, he played and helped us
We have more wins in a tougher year than last, them's the breaks, but all the bashing of Nelson is missing a couple salient points:
When he had talented bigs in Dallas or GS, they played - a lot
you want to point fingers, start with the architect of the roster - Mullin's GM moves bought the groceries; Nelson is just cooking the meal
by hardcore on Apr 12, 2008 9:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good Point JB
by gabezgsw on Apr 12, 2008 11:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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