A (Gulp...) Trade Idea

cant get baron and resign matrix. i dont buy that riley wants to deal the pick.  if he does itll be for his man-crush e-brand.  (matrix sign and trade plus #1 to clipps for brand and the #5?)  

IMO, the West will be just as tough next season, with Phx, Sas, and Dallas coming up on their last legs in the 09-10' season. The Clippers and Blazers are both teams that are lottery bound this year, but could be playoff contenders next year. That's an astonishing 10 teams vying for 8 spots!

Besides, either way we're going to have to make changes to this team this offseason, seeing as how we can't expect to play Baron, Monta and Jax 40+ minutes a game for another year. This team needs depth, as well as a quality big. A shot blocker would be great too.

I see where you're coming from jlagace, i really do...13+ years of sucktitude does...suck.

But i have a feeling that scraping for the leftovers in the WC won't sit still with Mullin. He's a GM that is always rumored to be in some sort of deal, and i figure this summer will be no different.

Back to the OP. I like the idea of your trade. I do not see it realistically happening. For one thing, Miami needs the contracts to match to do a S/T with Baron, because i'm assuming you meant Shawn Marion won't be opting out. Some combination of Udonis Haslem/Mark Blount will have to be included for Baron.

Plus they'll have to sign Dorell Wright to a contract extension and then S/T him to us.

I would believe this has an increased likelihood of happening if Miami somehow fell to the 3rd overall pick and was left out of the Rose/Beasley sweepstakes. Would trading Baron for the 3rd overall pick be worth it while Brook Lopez, OJ Mayo and Jerryd Bayless are there? Or is it Rose/Beasley or bust?

I like the idea of taking Robin Lopez with the 14th overall pick. Nellie stated we needed a shotblocker to help our perimeter defense...and he's right.

I'd love a Rose, Ellis, Wright, Biedrins, Belinelli, D. Wright, Lopez core. Although we could just as well turn out to struggle just like Minnesota has. Exciting to watch indeed it could be.

And Jax is a good player if he is a 4th offensive option

I don't see it in the West

Antawn doesn't really wants to come back. He and Glibert are doing their thing for the Wizards. Anyway, we want Elton Brands and we need him. Trade Jackson, 10 millions, Brandon Wright or Al Harrington for him.

Yes, Baron played 82 games this year.  He had something to play for: (a) proving the W's were legit after last year's run, and (b) re-earning/maintaining respect as a top point guard in the league (see a.), and (c) NEW CONTRACT.  

Oh, and (d) NEW CONTRACT.
And (e)...

Look, this is going to be his last contract, his current contract is phat, and he's been injury prone.  If he wants another good one, he has to "prove" that he's "worth it".  You can believe what you want, but fundamentally that's what this year was about.

Now, look at it this way.  He's 29.  In theory he's "at his peak" -- except that his history of injuries probably means he's really closer to the tail end of that peak than the front end of it.

Ok, so let's say the W's lock a bunch of money up in securing Beans and Monta, and then have to tie up everything they have left in BD.  What does that mean?  It means the core of this team for the next 4-5 years is the same as what you see on the floor today (plus BWright with maybe 15lbs and whatever role players we can get dirt cheap).  Now, two things to consider in this possible eventuality:

1. Can this team legitimately compete?  
- I'd say not next year. As mentioned earlier, next year is going to be MORE competitive than this year.  If BD doesnt extend this year then we'll get another good year out of him, but the West is going to be a bloodbath and a man can only do so much.

2. If this team can't compete, how much fire will BD really play with?
- Remember, once he gets his contract then he's only playing "for the love of the game".  If he doesn't think that the W's have a legitimate chance of competing, I don't see him giving the same heart-and-soul effort.  And that's not a knock on him, it's just human nature.  Who wants to beat the crap out of themselves for a hopeless goal?  

Based on all the logic above, I'm leaning towards trading him too -- even though I think he IS THE MAN and has been the savior of this franchise.  I just don't see how we can give him a ring in the next 3-4 years, and I fear that he'll ease off the gas after he gets his contract.  But in a competitive situation (namely, the EAST) he'd have something to fight for and could continue to be a beast for a few years.  

In short, I agree -- the $$$ is complicated, but trading with Miami should be considered.  Outside of BD, Jax and Al we have a fantastic young unit.  Adding to that could set us up nicely in 3-4 years, when the dust will start to clear in the Western Conference.

Oh, and ignore all this if we can somehow keep our existing team and add Elton Brand.  :)

Don't want to be a hater, just keeping it real.

This is the kind of feedback that I was interested in getting, and I appreciate someone who knows what he's talking about and backs up his points refuting my idea.
Here's my response to your five points.
"Sure, you can say we won't be a championship team.  But 2 years ago we had 34(i think) wins. Last year we made the conference semifinals.  This year we have a very legitamite shot at 50 wins.  Why mess with that?"
-The reason is partially financially and partially basketball wise.  Basketball wise, I just don't see the team, as currently constructed, doing any better over the next two years than battling for the eight seed and getting ousted in the first round.  Think about all the amazing comeback wins we had this year, and we STILL won't make the playoffs.  Next year, throw in Portland (who SHOULD make the playoffs) and all of a sudden it's even tougher to make the playoffs.  None of the top 8 will be falling off next year (Spurs might a little, but they'll still be better than us), so I say lets build for a few years from now when those "old guard" teams are on the way out.  Also, re-signing Baron, Monta, AB, and KA will be a bear, especailly with an owner who won't pay the tax.  People say we should make a run at EB in free agency, and my question is, "With what money?".  With the flexibility we'd get from the Miami trade, we could consider bringing in an decent pivot.

" Baron will play all 82 games this season.  When did he last do that? His second year, I believe. That shows he's healthier than in the past, and he should've been an all-star this year.  He's got some fuel left in the tank. Keep in mind, Baron's only 28."

Hell yeah Baron's still got something in the tank, but I still look at this year as an abberation.  If he hasn't been healthy for a whole year since his second, what makes you so sure he wont go back to his old injury woes?  I don't know if you know this but this is basically a contract year for Baron, and I don't need to get into how dangerous it is to bank on a guy based on his production in a contract year.  Because of the fuel in the tank, he still has huge trade value (unlike Jack or Al), and I think, while dangerous, we might want to strike when the iron is hot.  How many knee surgeries has he had?
I think your first two points are your strongest and hardest to refute.  They are also what makes me unsure about whether or not we should do the deal.

"Derrick Rose is not a passer.  Yet.  Rose is an incredible talent. He has HUGE potential.  But he has not shown he can be a talented passer. Mind you, he may prove to be, but Baron has been a 9apg guy throughout his Warrior days, and the Warriors need that."
I can't tell you how much I disagree with you on this one.  Derrick Rose averaged more assists than Deron Williams (who played more minutes) and only one assits behind CP3 in his freshman year (with about 5 less minutes per game).  Also, as the games got bigger, Rose gave out more assists.  In the final three games, he dished out 21 assists, which is more than good for a freshman point guard in the biggest games of his life.
According to the experts, Rose is "Pass-first point guard" (ESPN), "Has a rare ability to create passing lanes (nbadraft.net), and draftexpress lists his unselfishness as one of his greatest assets.  I'm no NBA talent scout, but listening to draft exprerts confirm what my eyes are telling me tell me he's gonna be a fantastic passer. (Read http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Derrick-Rose-1068/, and they explain why his assist numbers aren't as high as they could be)
Like I said, gotta respectfully disagree with your assesment of DR's passing ability.

"We have no JRich.  So if you take away Baron, Jackson becomes your lone leader.  Monta isn't ready for that role.  Face it, Monta is the most talented player on this team.  Beans keeps us in games against bigger teams.  But Baron and Jackson make the team go.  We need their leadership and veteran-savvy in order to win.  If we make this trade, it is probably 3 years, at least before we're back in the playoffs in this West. By that time Jackson and Harrington are in their 30s..."

First, I don't think it'll be 3years before we're back in the playoffs.  I think you are not giving Ellis enough credit.  Many thought he wouldn't be able to step in J-Rich's shoes on this board after the trade, but he stepped into that role.  Monta has shown the ability to grow up in a hurry, and it's not like he needs to be the only leader right now.  We will still have Jack, who has proved this year that he is capable of leading.
I also don't see how dropping Davis, getting Rose and finding a solid point guard to teach Rose negates all our considerable talent.  Rose is a natural born leader, who was able to step into the role in a team full of veteran college players (CDR, Dorsey, AA) and get them to follow him and make them better.  I don't see how he won't be able to do what CP3 and DWill have been able to do.

"We don't need another scorer. We need a backup for Biedrins, and more playing time for our bench so we can rest our starters.  I don't think we need another player taking away touches from Monta..."
This goes back to my last point that DR is NOT a shoot first point guard.  Don't believe me.  Read up on him and see what executives, sports writers, and draft experts say.  He will help Monta considerably, because he is a physical guard who, according to many experts, plays great defense.  It's not a suprise that CDR had his best season with DR by his side.  CDR made the All-America team so it's not like he was taking his touches.  I totally agree that we need a back-up for AB, and that is why with the extra money we could sign a cheap veteran backup (someone like Jamal McGlore, not him tho b/c he's trash), and draft a big with the 14 pick to groom behind AB.

I appreciate your critique, and it's tough to argue against your first two points.  I think our biggest disagreement is about the value of Derrick Rose.  Thanks bro, Dan

but I (respectfully) completely disagree with you when you say Derrick Rose is not a passer. I think it is one of those cases where since his all around game is so good, instead of looking for weaknesses people look for less strong strengths. From the games I've watched, Rose can definitely pass.

trades golden....

But i might be blinded by his potential.

The guys i'd look at (if we choose 14th), are Donte Greene, Nicolas Batum, Mareese Speights, Darrell Arthur, Danilo Gallinari, Earl Clark, Kevin Love and DeAndre Jordan.

Some guys may fall out of the Top 10, some may move up, but either way at 14, one of these guys will be there.

Rush and CDR would be taken WAAAAAY to early at 14. They are mid-late first rounders.

"rookie pg plus monta ellis as our backcourt....a scary proposition...."
If you read more, you would know that I am a proponent of signing a solid fa point guard to help tutor young Mr. Rose.  You also have Buike and Jack (who we all know can initiate the offense).  You can't tell me our ballhandlers (Rose, Ellis, Jack) are that much more terrifying than Portland's current ones (Blake, Roy, Jack).  But, it would give SO much more upside to actually contend.