Having your cake and eating it too

by Hac Man on Apr 15, 2008 12:47 PM PDT Comment 25 comments

long time lurker - first time poster, so be gentle (this is the Internet, who am I kidding?)

like many of you, I watched the penultimate game of the season last night, and instantly understood when Fitz said that this game was in many ways a microcosm of the Warriors season -- an up and down roller coaster, stirring comebacks, plenty of fight, but ultimately, falling short by just that tiny bit.

and now we have that little Nellie/Baron drama to carry with us into the offseason (it will be interesting to see how Davis plays in the game vs. the Sonics). I think some of the issues that have plagued the team all year long come back to the two cornerstones of our current incarnation -- Baron and Nellie wanting to have their cake and eat it too. (and before anyone interprets this incorrectly, I don't have any beef with Baron and would love to see him back in a W's uni next season. Also, wouldn't mind Nellie on the bench, although slightly less so. More on that)

Let's take Baron. If he plays the last game vs the Sonics tomorrow, it will be the first time since the 2001-2002 season (his 3rd year in the league) that he will have played all 82 games. Going into his free agency year, this can be seen as his signal to any teams out there that he can still be a durable player. But at what price to the Warriors this season? Its pretty clear that Baron has to pick and choose his spots to exert maximum energy. Given his physical playing style and 9 seasons in the league, that's understandable. Unfortunately, because of his role as the point guard and top player on the Warriors (not to mention the Warriors playing style), his doing so has a larger impact on the team as a whole. He is the Warriors' best on-the-ball defender, but if he's not fighting through a pick or letting inferior players drive right past him, it places more stress on the other defenders and is a psychological cue to the other players that Boom Diz isn't 100% on that night.

It wasn't as apparent many nights because Capt Jack and Monta rode to the rescue, but I think that caused them to hit the wall for the last few weeks as well. When they were on, as they were for much of the season, we could gloss over Baron's energy conservation. And while we compiled a nice record, if you take a cue from Hollinger's stats (based in part of margin of victory), you can see that the Warriors were on many nights, just a bit luckier than they were last season (their margin being only +2.30). Sure, everyone felt that the Warriors played down to teams inferior to them, but you have to look at Baron as the barometer for that.

Now to the other key figure -- Nellie. The Don has always been a proponent of having his cake and eating it too. As much as I am grateful to him for getting the W's back into prominence, I think Cuban had a grain of truth in his beef with Don when he said that Don not only has to win, but has to do it as the underdog. I think everyone and their brother agrees that Don didn't develop his bench this season (an omission made more glaring by the recent flashes of play from Wright, Perovic, etc) but when you throw Capt Jack out there and have him and Kabuki give away 20-40 pounds to various PFs, that has to take a toll. Kawakami also had a few columns where he expressed that Nellie was trying to win every game early on and burning his starters because he wanted the next year on his contract guaranteed. I'm inclined to agree with that. Nellie is smart enough to know that you can't play his style with a 1-2 person bench, but he only started playing Wright when Biedrins went down, and someone deluded himself into thinking Webber could fit. Don loves to be the mad genius, but guess what happens when the experiment blows up? I don't understand why he wouldn't push to trust his bench more. If he couldn't put them out there the entire season until now, then he's got to get a whole new bench for next season, one which he can put out there to play.

Unfortunately, it was a vicious circle -- Nellie relying on his starters too much, Baron playing too many minutes to prove his durability, starters hitting the wall, bench players not able to contribute. Last year's magical run was just that because there is no way you can duplicate that over an entire season. Let's just hope that Baron comes back, and Nellie feels confident enough to spot him more. Let's hope that this near miss also rejuvenates the hunger that the Warriors fans and players had last season.

ONE DUB.

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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I agree

with many of the things you said.

Here are some of my opinions:

1) We need Baron back next year. NEED HIM. We are so close to being a very, very good team, and to get rid of him would be surrendering, admitting defeat, planning for the (albeit very bright) future. Short of Chris Paul, there is, in my opinion, no one, at any position, that we bring in instead of Baron, who keeps this team as good.

That’s assuming he’s on good terms with Nellie, which brings us to…

2) We need Nellie back for one year, and with a good Baron relationship. Nellie has not established his style with the Warriors enough to hand the reigns over. I have complete confidence that Keith Smart, a la Avery Johnson, can be an extremely successful coach for the W’s, but not until they’re already clear who they are. Also, we need “the best player I’ve ever coached” to continue to be “also one of my best friends.” what happened yesterday? We don’t know. It’s hard to think of it as anything other than a mini feud/message, yet at the same time, Baron didn’t say anything, and Nellie only said “Baron got a much needed rest.” In a way it feels like Nellie threw in the towel, admitted that if they were going to succeed in the playoffs they needed rested starters, and a larger bench. Ultimately, it was moot.

3) Last year, Nellie developed Monta Ellis, an unheard of, unproven player. Almost immediately, ME8 went from D-League bound to star. On a slightly lesser level, the same happened last year with Biedrins, and also Azubuike and Barnes. Last year we had a deeper bench than this year. But next year Bellinelli, Wright and Perovic will be 2nd year players, like Monta was last year. I have confidence that next year Nellie will turn those players into reliable subs. He can work magic, that guy.

by bradyk2 on Apr 15, 2008 1:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

i watched ray ratto

on rome is burning and said baron was gonna opt out. but if baron ends up going to the Lakers, then what?... (typing that just burns inside)

aka GOLDENBOYWARRIOR

by gogomaplata on Apr 15, 2008 2:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

return of gilbert?

i dont like a monta/gil backcourt (no defense whatsoever) but its a lot of money and he’s the only big ticket guard available.

by sam23 on Apr 15, 2008 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

NO!!!

I don’t want Baron to leave….since he lives on the same block I work, I will perch outside his place everyday with a huge sign saying, “PLEASE DON”T GO” until he gives in and stays with the Dubs!

We're Golden!

by Krossover on Apr 15, 2008 3:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Of Cource

Baron is going to opt out. All players do. Sports is a business.

by Golden Boy on Apr 15, 2008 3:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

he's making 17 mil!

where else is he gonna get that? nobody has that kind of money for a guy who has been injury prone and something of a coach killer. i love baron but unless he wanted to take a pay cut to go to the lakers i cant see him opting out.

by sam23 on Apr 15, 2008 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

what if he

wants a shot at the tittle…

aka GOLDENBOYWARRIOR

by gogomaplata on Apr 15, 2008 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

he's not old enough

to just take a pay cut for a title. Trust me. His agent would never let him opt out unless he can get similar money. And he can’t get similar money anywhere else.

by mikey J on Apr 15, 2008 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trust you.

OK. Who are you, again?

Trust me, you don’t have any clue what Baron’s thinking. I don’t either. None of us do.

Both the Lakers and Boston would kill to have a star PG, and both would absolutely kill if they had BD. If you were BD, which would you choose?

1. Sign a reasonable 3-4 year deal at, say, $20-25M, plus endorsements, to play for one of the two marquee franchises in hoops, both serious championship contenders, either (a) in your glamorous hometown with your buddy Kobe or (b) in Boston with your best pals KG and PP?

2. Take the $17M option and risk a serious injury while playing in a small market for a mediocre team with zero chance of winning a championshp?

Again, I have no idea which BD will pick, but I wouldn’t blame him at all if he chose option 1a or 1b. Indeed, thinking about it, I think he’d be a damn fool to choose any option but 1a or 1b.

by Sleepy Freud on Apr 15, 2008 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

let's be a little more fair about the choices here

i know you’re wording it in a way that door number 1 seems obvious, but how about if I reword it like this:

2. Take the $17M option (or a resigned contract with long-term security) to play with a coach who resurrected your career and in a style that features your offensive and defensive skillset on a team where you are the unquestioned top option and leader.

Pluses and minuses for either choice.

by Hac Man on Apr 15, 2008 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

OK, let's be fair

Play for an old, drunk, occasionally brilliant, occasionally idiotic, ornery, unpredictable coach who could retire at any moment, and who just benched you in the team’s most important game of the year…

Or … play for Doc Rivers or Phil Jackson?

As for “Unquestioned top option and leader” and “Style that features your offensive skillset”: ROFLMAO. Any fool can see that no team coached by Nellie is ever going to win an NBA championship. Any fool can also see that no team on which Baron Davis is the “unquestioned top option” is ever going to win a championship.

Whatever else you may say about him, Baron Davis is no fool.

Remind me what the “minuses” of playing for the Lakers or Celtics would be? Oh yeah, that we’re not fans of those teams. Tough sh*t for us.

by Sleepy Freud on Apr 15, 2008 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

so basically you're saying

that Davis is as good as gone then?

I said in a different place that Davis isn’t a good fit for the triangle, which might be strike one for the Lakers trying to get him. Strike two would be him co-existing with Kobe. Both players dominate the ball.

Are you suggesting that Doc Rivers is a better coach than Don Nelson? He might have struck gold this year with the team he has, and a great defensive assistant in Thibodeau, but Nellie can coach circles around him.

Don’t discount the top option and playing style. You’re right, Baron is no fool, he wants as much money as he can make, and if he’s the top dog playing in a system that helps his stats, its going to make him more money.

Peace.

by Hac Man on Apr 15, 2008 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right

He might well stay—simply because of the $$$$$$. It’s gotta be pretty hard to rip up a $17M contract. But no other reason holds any water.

I would suggest that Doc Rivers is a much better coach than Nellie, since he’s already instilled a defensive philosophy and style that Nellie’s never been able to. He’s helped to turn a mediocre defensive team into a the best defensive team in the NBA, a team built for the grind-it-out pace of the playoffs. This year’s Celtics would kick the living crap out of any team Nellie’s ever coached. Obviously, KG has played a huge role in this, but if you’re going to give KG credit for his veteran leadership, you need to do the same for Baron and Jack.

As a general rule, I think coaches are given way too much credit for their team’s success, relative to veteran leadership. Put another way: the Warriors would be a lot better with KG playing PF and Jessica Alba as Head Coach than vice-versa…

by Sleepy Freud on Apr 16, 2008 4:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

nellie

did pull off the greatest playoff upset in NBA history. and he’s the second winningest coach of all time. (could be 1st with a 50 win year next year) lets not dismiss him as an inferior coach simply because he stresses offense over defense. and nellie has never had a defensive weapon like kg, or 3 surefire hall of famers in their prime. baron’s never been happier in his career than he is now, im not saying i know he wont take a pay cut to go to the lakers/celtics, but i wouldnt jump to the conclusion that its the better choice for him or that he’s as good as gone.

by sam23 on Apr 16, 2008 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

old drunk, occasionally brilliant, occasionally idiotic...

doesnt sound like an accurate description of a guy who turned our franchise around. lets show a little respect. (baron does!) id love to see the warriors play a little more d just as much as anyone else, but ill still take nellie over 90% of anyone who has ever coached the game. and i just dont think your statement that no don nelson coached team will ever win a title. its easy to say that now that he’s at the end of his career with a team thats a couple impact players short but if we’d pulled off a kg trade this team would certainly be as likely to win one this year as any other team.

by sam23 on Apr 16, 2008 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I pretty much contradicted myself

First I said that no team ever coached by Nellie would ever win it all. Then i said people tend to overrate a coach’s effect on a team.

I retract the first statement. You’re right, Nellie could probably win it all if you gave him a team like this year’s Celtics or this year’s Lakers. But I stand by the second statement: I doubt the team would be very different with Keith Smart at the helm.

And I totally stand by the fact that he’s an “old drunk, occasionally brilliant, occasionally idiotic.” What exactly isn’t true in that statement?

by Sleepy Freud on Apr 16, 2008 7:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

im not really disagreeing with you personally sleepy

i like keith smart and am excited about him taking over soon. but, im not ready to shove nellie out the door or criticize what he’s done. and i just dont like the general lack of appreciation for what nellie has done among some of the gsom’ers. i dunno if id say “old drunk,” i dont consider myself a drunk, but i do enjoy a nice scotch and considering i have a beer during most of the games i dont blame him for his post game beverage selection. seriously though, mostly i just have a problem with the implication that he is equal parts idiotic and brilliant. making the warriors relevant his first two years back took much more brilliance than idiocy. other than the webber fiasco i cant think of too much he’s done wrong. the d is pathetic, but that sorta comes with the territory in an up-tempo system and the d was relatively good during the late push last year. with better production from barnes and pietrus and even jack it coulda been nearly as good this year. every coach has their flaws, but ill take nellie’s over just about anybody else’s. i totally understand the call for more d, and for smart to get his shot, but some of the nellie-haters seem like they have no appreciation for where he’s brought us and seem like they’ll never be satisfied.

by sam23 on Apr 16, 2008 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Baron's rich

He’ll take a pay cut and play for a contender that needs a pg.

by Golden Boy on Apr 15, 2008 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Baron isn't a good fit for the triangle

His game is driving and dishing and posting up smaller guards and he doesn’t shoot 3s at a high enough percentage. Additionally, the Lakers are run through Kobe, and I’m thinking that Baron wants to be somewhere where he is the lead guard.

by Hac Man on Apr 15, 2008 3:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

i dont believe

the drama between nellie and baron. the 5 on the floor gave us a shot to win the game. i didnt find a problem with nellie sitting him out. if you really think about it, the media is blowing this up. to make it seems nellie is breaking up the team. from what i remember, he didnt do that in dalls

and i dont believe he’ll opt out. like what sam23 said, he’s making around 17 mill next year. i dont think he’ll be like arenas and claim he’s the best player available in free agency. but it did cross my mind that we could get him if baron did opt out. but thats too much money to go around with monta and andris being free agents.

this is gonna be an interesting offseason. many new faces next year. thanks matt barnes for warming the bench for the other two captains

i want a bike, like a beach cruiser of somthin like that - Baron Davis

by boomdizzle5 on Apr 15, 2008 4:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

what i meant to say wa

the media is blowing this up to make it seem like nellie is breaking up the team. from what i remember, he didnt do that when he was in dallas

i should really reread what i type

i want a bike, like a beach cruiser of somthin like that - Baron Davis

by boomdizzle5 on Apr 15, 2008 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually, I was hoping Baron would come in

especially when the game got tight when the Suns made their last run. true, he would have been stone cold, but he could have started posting up Nash (as he loves to do) and caused the Suns D to scramble to double. No one could make a J at the end of the game for the W’s, and Baron could have at least tried for some easier baskets or (maybe) get some calls.

by Hac Man on Apr 15, 2008 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Baron + Lakers

I don’t see it happening. Baron is extremely unselfish, and a great passer, but I think he enjoys scoring too much for that team. A la AI and Melo, I don’t know if the chemistry of Baron, Kobe, Bynum and Gasol can work. I really think that Jordan Farmar is the future PG of the Lakers because of what he brings.

With that said, I will be heartbroken if baron opts out. Devestated. We are so close to having something special. In fact, we have something beautiful. It will feel like when you lose Game 7 on a half-court buzzer beater. I really don’t know where we are without Baron. We lose our leader, our heart, our MVP. Sure everyone else is talented as holy heck, but c’mon…what are we without Baron Davis? What run and gun, breakneck speed, fast break team is complete without a decent PG?

When JRich left, we at least had players to fill the void. If Baron leaves, we are left high and dry. I will honestly be heartbroken.

by bradyk2 on Apr 15, 2008 6:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

and d-fish

is their emotional leader. i think it COULD happen, but dont think it will. just my opinion though. the boston idea makes a little sense, but again i think ainge and co. really like rondo.

by sam23 on Apr 16, 2008 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs