What is it worth to you?
Hello Friends,
I'm sure everyone is aware that BD has an opt out available to him, and everyone, including myself, is wondering if he's going to take it or not. I read something suprising today, apparently BD is willing to stay with the W's at a discount in hopes to sign long term and bring in some talent, which is exactly what he would have to do to get the extension he wants.
So what's Mullin waiting for?
If the article is correct, and BD is willing to sign a contract near the current value of other PGs such as Nash, Arenas, Kidd, and Billups, that's relatively good news for the Warriors:
"Some players comparable to Davis in terms of veteran point guards include Phoenix's Steve Nash (who is playing on a six-year, $63 million deal), Detroit's Chauncey Billups (five years, $60 million), Washington's Gilbert Arenas (six years, $65 million) and Dallas' Jason Kidd (six years, $103 million)."
Nash: 6yr/$63M averages out to $10.5M per year.
Billups: 5yr/$60M averages out to $12M per year.
Arenas: 6yr/$65M averages out to $10.83M per year.
Kidd: 6yr/$103MM averages out to $17.16M per year. *It's worth noting that I think it's reasonable to assume that no PG is going to get a contract like this, so for the sake of this diary Kidd's contract will not be used.
-The Nash/Billups/Arenas contracts were 6, 5, and 6 year contracts. Since there is no such thing as a 5.333 year contract, I'll round it up to a 6 year contract.
-The average combined salaries of the 3 other players contracts is $62.66M. So I'll round that up to $63M.
-That makes a 6yr/$63 contract at $10.5M per year. With the Warriors new found contract conscience, and the apparent leverage they have in these negotiations (and an attempt at a compromise) I'll make it a 5yr/$52.5M contract with a team option to make it up to a 6yr/$63M deal.
Health: what the players average games played since 2001-2002:
Since BD reportedly is comparing himself to these players, and health is clearly an issue, how does his average games played per season stack up against the rest?
Note: Had to use 2001-2002 as a starting point because it was Gilbert Arena's first year in the league. Since then...
Arenas: avg 61.5 games played per year.
Nash: avg 79 games played per year.
Billups: avg 77.5 games played per year.
BD: avg 63 games played per year
So while BD is younger than both Nash and Billups, he has played, on average, almost 15+ less games per season. When making an investment of this type, health is extremely important.
At 29, is BD's health more likely to improve or decline over the next 5-6 years?
Considering that BD is willing to make the sacrafice, what do you think is holding up the Warriors, or more specifically, Chris Mullin at this point?
-Health concerns?
-Legnth of contract?
-Amount of contract?
-How BD fits with the post Don Nelson era of the Warriors, which a new contract would bring him into this era.
-Future salary cap concerns? Wright, Biedrins and Ellis could be the core for years to come.
-All of the above?
-Other?
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
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Waiting Game
Great post passion…
It seems like Mullin and the Warriors are waiting for him to opt-out or not. If he doesn’t opt out, then they will be in a much more advantageous position negotiating for an extension. And I think that the Dubs are probably willing to offer what you mentioned above, but BD’s agent is probably shooting initially for somewhere around 14 mil per year. Thats just the way the game is played in the off-season. I would think it would be a good investment to pay Baron even a little more than 10.5, because his presence and character are what this team is. Who else on our roster could make a commercial with Adam Sandler as Zohan? It’s things like the commercial that makes me think Boom is worth an extra mil a year….
by IceDubs on May 12, 2008 3:07 PM PDT 0 recs
i think mullin
is waiting for boom’s opt out deadline, the article you linked to said:
[quote]
Just hours earlier, Warriors executive vice president Chris Mullin had said that he didn’t plan to engage in contract talks until Davis’ opt-out deadline of June 30 had passed, putting the team in a more advantageous position.
[/quote]
and also:
[quote]
But the negotiating stance is in line with the attitude the Warriors have adopted in recent years.
[/quote]
not sure what the last sentence is refering to though (certainly not the giant extensions given to jrich, murph, leavy)
nice post, tho. i’m thinking the W’s will resign Dizzle, though i’d say he’s worth a little less than the average of your figures above, say, 5/48 b/c of age and health concerns.
"i'm just trying to follow my dream, dad."
"but your dream is stupid!"
by pervisNeverNervous on May 12, 2008 3:35 PM PDT 0 recs
...
“But the negotiating stance is in line with the attitude the Warriors have adopted in recent years.”
I believe he’s referring to the jrich trade. the dubs are obviously looking to build a younger (cheaper) team. baron will be let go (if he opts out) or traded by the ‘08-09 trading deadline at the latest (or asap). he just demands too much money and too many years on a contract extension. if the dubs are offered another draft pick plus dough, I’m sure mullie won’t hesitate to jump on it (again).
by oldskool on
May 18, 2008 3:31 PM PDT
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That would mean....
what to the salary cap in the future? When taking into consideration Harrington’s deal, which I have said needs to be taken off of the books, how will that help or hurt the Warriors after the Monta and Biedrins deals? Will it allow room for Wright and Belinelli to get signed as well?
There is more at stake than everyone feeling the warm fuzzies of having BD come back. If it can be done with some fiscal responsibility than I’m all for it, but if it will hurt the team in the long run, no matter how much you love BD, you have to love the team more than his pocketbook.
by passionately objective on May 12, 2008 5:04 PM PDT 0 recs
this is only my opinion
in my opinion i dont think we should put that type of bank on baron then, that is my opinion. baron can make 17 mil next year and test the waters if he wanted to and by that time he’d be 30. i love baron as a dub too but time is passing him by and so is monta. also since he has been a warrior he’s only played one entire season.
i think, again in my opinion, that he is worth his last year on his contract and hopefully he can earn what he deserves. maybe if he made a few all star teams or helped us create a contender, i could see giving him what he wants but baron hasn’t. it happens all the time in professional sports, promising atheletes become over paid or wanting to get paid but in this instance, when is $17 mil for 82 NBA games isnt good enough?
seriously, take a look back when we had gilbert. could he have stayed for one more season and get that fat pay day he wanted???? yes. but he wanted the money upfront so just incase he got hurt!!! so gil left for the money. i dont blame hime… but now what, back to back injury prone seasons and now he’s gonna opt out again for more money? one more time, this is only my opinion. if i were tired and injured too, i wouldnt say anything about my aches and pains till i got paid. money changes everything!
i know, i get it. it is a business and something has got to give. i just hope mullin doesnt.
again, thats only my opinion.
aka GOLDENBOYWARRIOR
by gogomaplata on May 12, 2008 7:36 PM PDT 0 recs
Wright, Biedrins and Ellis could be the core for years to come.
Damn, That’s depressing! Is that all we’ve got to look forward to? A skinny power forward, A center who can’t shoot, a SG that can’t defend or shoot 3’s? If Baron goes who’s gonna defend Monta’s man? Who’s gonna wear the beard?? These youngsters can’t even grow one!!
The trashing of JRich stalled our uphill climb, the loss of Baron will put us on a freefall to the cellar. If you want talent you gotta pay for it. The only way I’d let Baron walk is if we can find an equal point guard and I don’t hear CP3 knocking on the door.
by Skeptic con Urquell on May 12, 2008 10:02 PM PDT 2 recs
wuz workin on it
i wuz workin on it
making trades on
real gm like donnie walsh
over and over
but i snack on froot loops
then tip box after cereals
over to get spill of multi
frooty sugar down throat
i see god man
never before so great a sugar
capisci???????????
ANY QUESTIONS???
by KennySeagle on May 12, 2008 11:03 PM PDT 0 recs
i think
now baron will stay after i saw the commercials and i beatyou.com i kept thinking he will stay hes to happy here. only place he will go is clippers or lakers. and i don’t know if he will go there. its weird he had all star stuff and playoff appearances with the hornets, but he has become so famous here. come on when do you see a warrior doing so much stuff on tv.
So I don't have a signature well these words would do! Who knew that upgrades can have downgrades too!
by 24k state fan since 87 on May 13, 2008 3:07 AM PDT 0 recs
just a thought...
If Baron opts out b/c he wants over 15 million and Mullin won’t give it to him, I think Mullin is a smart guy. I mean for that cost we could probably get Arenas and Jamison back if we tack on a few more million to that 15mil. Our track record for overpaying players hasn’t been on our side, so why take the chance. In a perfect world, Baron belongs on this team, but I am curious to how much of a pay cut he is really willing to take, even if we cut the cost, who can we add?
by celicadriven27 on May 13, 2008 4:27 AM PDT 0 recs
You have to look at the big picture
Baron understands that he has only a few years left to play at his best. If he gets traded, there is a small chance of going to a playoff team. The thing is, his salary would weigh down any team. Here are the advantages and disadvantages to signing Baron to a five year /10.5mil/year:
-Over the next two years we will see Foyle’s buyout come through. $6.3 mil goes to it this coming year. Freeing up roughly $7 mil from Davis’ contract would allow some much needed breathing space. However, after adding up Baron 10.5, with the other committed salaries, (TMNT, Jax, Wright, Belinelli), and throwing in Goose an estimated $10/yr and Ellis @ $7/yr, (both rough estimates based on other players with similar talents), the total salary is at about $52mil. This is not a great number to have without any bench. I wish Option Zero would come back and finish the numbers to make sure I have it right. I am still not clear about the trade exception, but I think it can be used on the day of the draft. Someone try to figure it all out: http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#68
Here's the salary page right now:
(Foyle's contract is off. Amount owed next year is about 6.3mil. The season after that will be about $700,000. Then we are freeeeee!!!!!!)
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/golden_state.htm
-So anyways, this is smart for Baron in that he is giving the Dubs a chance to bring in a little extra talent. The thing is, a lot of that $ is going to go towards resigning Biedrins and Ellis.
-Baron is 29 right now, signing him for 5 years is a risky commitment. Over five years to the age of 34, I think we will see him slow down. 3 years into the contract, we lose the positive outcome if he is constantly injured or slows down. My personal opinion is that BD is the type of person that will make the choice to do whatever he can to stay in the best shape, to play great for as long as he can. However, the Dubs are gathering young talent that will replace his scoring, and allow him to become more of the standard pass-first point guard, which I think as he ages will be a great role for him considering his ability.
As far as next season goes there are many options and possibilities to consider:
-Resigning? Is Buike worth $6 mil? I don’t think so, but some of you do. I would offer $14/3year. Did Barnes or Pietrus play well enough to get signed at the price they want? It’s rumored that Dallas is looking at both of them, and we know Pietrus would like to play for another team. I say let him. The fact that he decided to start playing after he was resigned shows his character. I don’t think Barnes is going to be signed by anyone the way he played this year. I know….all the stuff with his mother, but that doesn’t mean that other teams are just going to say, “oh poor guy, maybe he’ll play better this year.” I hope he gets resigned for the same $3mil and comes back ready to drop treys like raindrops. Perovic? I have no idea. POB is definitely gone, and we need a backup center besides Wright. $1.8 isn’t terrible if Nelly and Mully think he has potential. Does Croshere have one year left in him? If he can help out like last year I say definitely. For 1.2mil, he played great.
-Many people are talking about getting rid of Al. They say he’s inconsistent. They say he lacks defense. They say. I think that people forget what a real overpaid PF is: Troy Murphy. Considering they are paid about the same, Al has better defense, plays better inside and can shoot. Although its embarrassing to say that while writing this, I learned that Murphy had superior rebounding, 3pt%, shot% and assists this season. Damn. He was still soft and they are both overpaid. So anyways, if they trade Al, I have no idea what the package would consist of, and I really don’t want to suggest a trade that you guys would tear apart. Also, we must remember that his contract goes into the 2009-2010 season as well. It might be beneficial to trade, but I think that we would have to package him with a young player with potential and a cheap contract, like Belinelli or our next draft pick.
-What will we see on draft day is the big question. Considering we don’t win the lottery, we draft at 14. There have been many mock drafts, but no one knows how it goes until the day comes. Can we draft, then sign and trade using the exception? Here’s what nbadraft.net picked for the Dubs:
http://www.nbadraft.net/admincp/profiles/javalemcgee.html
Another 7 footer that might have potential? There’s no telling what Mully will do. Do they sign for a position they need, or sign the best available player with the highest trade value?
Other mock drafts say Dubs draft Chase Budinger or Donte Green.
Personally I would rather have Chris-Douglas Roberts over Budinger. Donte Green might show the most promise at 6’10” with a good outside shot. Here’s everything so far:
Baron/Ellis/Belinelli (he has handles and vision, we just haven’t seen it since summer.)
Ellis/Belinelli/Buike/Jackson
Jackson/Barnes/Buike
TMNT/Wright/Barnes/Green/Croshere
Beidrins/Perovic/Wright/Croshere/Green
This is a pretty sold looking lineup; a lot of big men and a lot of players that can play different positions. That would be a full active roster. But also that’s 4 young developing big men. Is that a good thing? Its been a long time sine the Warriors had that much talent and potential in the frontcourt. And they still have the guards to match. They could even trade Al and Perovic to a team in need of big guys for a SG or SF to help take pressure off of Jackson. Or else just draft one.
This lineup is over the cap, however there are rules like the MLE and the Rookie Exception, (Green), that might allow for this lineup. Then as the season goes on they could sign free agents as needed.
So anyways, that concludes my post/preseason rant. Hope you all enjoyed and we’ll see what happens.
Keep Monta Movement.
by danielholl on May 13, 2008 10:27 AM PDT 0 recs
He's not going to take that much of a paycut
He’s not going to want to drop down to an AVERAGE of 11M/year, that’s less than 10M in the first year, a 50% paycut. I expect he’s looking in the 12-14M starting rage with 4-5 years that probably ends at 16-17M/year. If I was Mullin, I’d be happy with starting at 10M with 1M added each year for 4 years. But when you factor in his contract this year (17M), it gets more difficult to make the numbers work out.
They still have almost two months to work it out. There’s going to be a lot of posturing in the media before then, mostly by Baron’s agent. Don’t let it get to you.
by Dubs fan in Boston on May 13, 2008 10:30 AM PDT 0 recs
WTF?
I have no idea why the formatting was off. Here’s a redo of the first few paragraphs:
Baron understands that he has only a few years left to play at his best. If he gets traded, there is a small chance of going to a playoff team. The thing is, his salary would weigh down any team. Here are the advantages and disadvantages to signing Baron to a five year /10.5mil/year:
-Over the next two years we will see Foyle’s buyout come through. $6.3 mil goes to it this coming year. Freeing up roughly $7 mil from Davis’ contract would allow some much needed breathing space. However, after adding up Baron at 10.5, with the other committed salaries, (TMNT, Jax, Wright, Belinelli), and throwing in Goose at an estimated $10/yr and Ellis at $7/yr, (both rough estimates based on other players with similar talents), the total salary is at about $52mil. This is not a great number to have without any bench. I wish Option Zero would come back and finish the numbers to make sure I have it right. I am still not clear about the trade exception, but I think it can be used on the day of the draft. Someone try to figure it all out:
Here’s the salary page right now: http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#68
Foyle’s contract is off. Amount owed next year is about 6.3mil. The season after that will be about $700,000. Then we are freeeeee!!!!!!!!!
Also in response to Dubs fan in Boston:
He would take a pay cut if it meant security from injuries and a shot at the championship over a 5 year period. He knows that after 32, he’s not likely to be signed for over 10mil if the knees are gone.
Keep Monta Movement.
by danielholl on May 13, 2008 10:37 AM PDT 0 recs
bd
if this is true, this is great. I think if baron wants 13 million dollars a year or less for 4 or 5 years then we sign that in an instant, a lot of people forget how good he is, ya he got tired down the stretch but looked at his numbers and he doesnt have any legit big man to play with. If he signs for about 11 million a year that would give us great options, if monta improves his defense we will have the best backcourt in the league next year, hands down. Come on mully baron is a BA and the face of our franchise hes all over the news, commercials with adam sandler, and just a great guy great leader
by FeartheBeard4 on May 13, 2008 8:11 PM PDT 0 recs
in an instant
Yeah, and do it before the deadline to show some respect for baron. If we lock up boom for 4 or 5 years at a lower cost then maybe we can afford a big man so we don’t have to play small ball all the time. baron could just as well play bigball and it might be easier on him to have some thugs on his side. Just get rid of nellie and beli, trade monta for a bigger 2 guard, etc. and we’d be all set.
by Skeptic con Urquell on
May 13, 2008 9:53 PM PDT
up
0 recs
digg it
mully/rowell plays
pyscholgical game
here now pilgrims…....
feint withnin feint
dis baron but dont
dis in public
dis by lowball
subtle way 2 show
baron the do’
ANY QUESTIONS???
by KennySeagle on May 13, 2008 10:54 PM PDT 0 recs
'
i never said get rid of monta r u kiddin me? monta will be in all star contention next year and get rid of nellie? are u kiddin me again? the coach that brought this team back to the playoffs. but i do agree get a big man inside and were set
by FeartheBeard4 on May 13, 2008 11:54 PM PDT 0 recs
r u kiddin me?
No, just pointing out the obvious. We shoulnt over pay monta just because of potential. Potential can work both ways, I see the potential for him to be a drag on a bigger better defending team. I don’t think he has the personality or intellect to be a team leader, he don’t have that star charisma. A lot of his shot percentage was due to the style of play, cherry picking for easy shots brings it up fast, more difficult shots can bring it down just as fast . He did have an improvement in rebounding and mid range jumper so he’s got a place as a middle level player, but not at top dollar.
Nellie lost his attraction when he ran off webber and traded richmond for owens , getting us in the playoffs last season was small payback compared to the damage he’s caused over the years.
Nellie might be an offensive genius but he don’t inspire all the players. Who wants to do their best for a guy who keeps dissing you? What rookie can flourish in this scene? There’s first year players around the league making big contributions to their teams but not here! Trading Jason and benching Baron at a critical time is an example of his dis respect for our players. If they needed to trade jason they shoulda told him upfront instead of telling him he would not be traded then surprising him on draft day. If nellie was giving up on the season he should sat on the bench with baron and both of them popped a beer and smoked a cigar and reminisced on the season instead of making baron sit there like a bad kid in school.
by Skeptic con Urquell on
May 14, 2008 10:57 AM PDT
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Ellis
About Ellis’ shooting percentage: I think it’s unfair and probably flat out wrong to characterize Ellis as a cherry picking shooter. He has great range on anything that is not a 3 pointer, and there’s nothing easy about his perimiter shooting, or else everyone would be doing it.
by passionately objective on
May 14, 2008 11:50 AM PDT
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0 recs
uhh, yeah
monta is a phenomenal scorer. he can finish in so many ways around the rim, can work the pick and roll, the high screen, or just flat out make his own shot whenever he wants to. if you mean by more difficult shots, you’re talking about jacking a 35 ft three off balance on one leg (boom), then yeah, monta probably can’t make many of those.
i’ll also take point with you on monta’s leadership abilities and intellect. i think it’s pretty unfair to say that a 21-22 year old needs to be a leader on a team that has brought in a very strong/demonstrative veteran presence (boom/jax). he’s proven himself to always be in control and to never lash out and get the stupid foul on the back end of a bad/no call. as far as intellect, the kid has the ability to analyze his game from last year and come strong this year with a sweet mid-range shot and less threes. the way he handles himself, his teammates and his game, seems to be a sign of a strong intellect.
"i'm just trying to follow my dream, dad."
"but your dream is stupid!"
by pervisNeverNervous on
May 14, 2008 4:39 PM PDT
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0 recs
Another thing....
about Ellis is that he controls himself very well. When he gets a hard foul, or things don’t go his way, he controls his temper very well and retaliates with his play. That is huge, considering the times I’ve seen Jackson and BD cry up and down the floor. I seriously despise when they do that.
by passionately objective on
May 15, 2008 10:49 AM PDT
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0 recs
just flat out make his own shot whenever he wants to
Ha, I love it when they use that phrase. Makes me wonder why they don’t want to more often? If he can make his shot anytime he wants then we should score 100 point s a game easy!
by Skeptic con Urquell on
May 15, 2008 2:54 PM PDT
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0 recs
i like nellie too..
But look at his track record… how many finals has he been too? I mean his successor Avery Johnson got his mavericks to the finals the year after he leaves. ( Even though i know he just got fired..but still)..He doesn’t understand the concept of defense. If he put more of an emphasis on defense, we would win more for sure. Look at the spurs, they win championships and they don’t 110 points a game to do it.
by celicadriven27 on May 14, 2008 2:08 AM PDT 0 recs
IMO, Mullie plays hardball...
BD gets his 17 mill next season then walks to the Lakers to play a year at minimum salary for a ring and a boost in endorsement monies. Baron then signs for whatever he can get wherever he can get it. He spends more and more time with his production company as he nears retirement and the year in L.A. is his springboard to a run for LA City Council. The following year he stands in for an increasingly truant Sir Charles on TNT. He quits that in a huff after they make the mistake of putting them on together and his production company then organizes a player-financed buyout of all NBA television rights.
OK, I got carried away. I think BD has only one more year with us. I love his game. But it won’t be worth it to either party to stay.
Once in a while you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
by fotd on May 15, 2008 12:39 AM PDT 0 recs
Baron to the Lakers
“Baron then signs for whatever he can get wherever he can get it. He spends more and more time with his production company as he nears retirement and the year in L.A. is his springboard to a run for LA City Council.”
Actually that sounds pretty good for the boss. I hope it works out that way for him, he’s certainly not getting the love he deserves here.
by Skeptic con Urquell on May 15, 2008 2:58 PM PDT 0 recs
Baron to the Lakers
Davis, Bryant, Odem, Gasol, and Bynum would be a very powerful team. I think it would be good for Baron to get a ring. Yes, he deserves it. But, while Baron should do what’s best for him, I have to root for Mullin to do what’s best for the W’s. I don’t think Baron can get the W’s there (unless Cohan suddenly decides he’s willing to bust the budget). I think Mullin will let Baron walk and shake hands as friends.
Once in a while you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
by fotd on May 16, 2008 12:25 AM PDT 0 recs
Busting the budget
I the W’s owner was someone to whom winning was more important than than money, that trade exception, along with a player or two (Harrington at the most) might be able to net a superstar like Brand. Add him to Baron and our boys and we’re contendng with anyone. Of course, Ellison, er… Cohan, would have to be willing to spend some money.
Once in a while you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
by fotd on May 16, 2008 12:38 AM PDT 0 recs
Cohan, would have to be willing to spend some money.
Yeah, If he was willing to spend the money he coulda gone after Gasol. or Garnett or someone!
We need him to sell the team to Barkley, that dude don’t care about wasting money and we’d finally get some non-midgets.
by Skeptic con Urquell on May 16, 2008 8:53 AM PDT 0 recs
They'll settle for something in the middle.
I seem to remember hearing something like Mullin would be willing to go 3 years $36 or $12 M per. That's kinda low, but if it's an extension (add the $17.5 M remaining), then that brings the total deal to 4 years $53.5 M. It’s kinda long, but Baron’s not getting his max either.
"Go ahead. Make my day."
by callahan on May 23, 2008 8:24 AM PDT 0 recs
















