Grading the Mullin Picks

by Atma Brother ONE on May 19, 2008 12:33 AM PDT in NBA Draft

To tell you the truth I didn't want to have to blog about the Golden State Warriors counting lotto balls again after We Believe '07, but I guess that's too much to ask from an organization that has missed the playoffs 13 of the past 14 years in a league where half the teams qualify for post-season action. It really makes you wonder why there's so many passionate fans shelling out their hard earned dollars and precious time for a such a historically losing organization and clueless front office led by a owner who almost single handedly killed pro hoops in the Bay Area. But since we're on the eve of the 2008 NBA Draft Lottery, I thought it would be a great time to review the Warriors' hits and misses in the draft under front office man Chris Mullin.

He can't draft, but he sure could shoot!

Jump like the lotto balls!

For some reason a lot of people seem to think Mullin was officially at the reigns when the Dubs selected Mickael Pietrus with the 11th pick in the 2003 NBA Draft. In actuality that was Gary St. Jean's last draft class at a time when the Warriors were in serious limbo with the Gilbert Arenas free agency and months before they sold Antawn Jamison off the golden island for Nick Van Exel and Dale Davis' contract (+ Speedy Claxton = Baron Davis). That means Mullin has been steering the ship for just the last 4 Warrior drafts- 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007.

If previous draft success or lack thereoff is any indicator of the future (the 2008 NBA Draft), Warriors fans should be terrified. Let's take a closer look at who the Warriors took in those 4 drafts and in the Jordan and Pippen 2.0 tradition who they passed on regardless of position since that's a good metric of their drafting ability. (You ALWAYS, ALWAYS draft the best player available regardless of position in the NBA. This isn't the NFL Draft.)

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2004 NBA Draft

Andris Biedrins (#11)

After 2 lackluster seasons in the association that earned him the nickname the One Minute Man, Biedrins has morphed into a very solid, albeit limited starting center in the league. He is the Warriors' best and most consistent rebounder by far. Biedrins cuts to the hole extremely well without the ball as well as catches and finishes in ways that Warriors fans couldn't dream of when watching the man Shaq called Erica manning the middle for the Dubs in the earlier part of this decade. Biedrins' upside doesn't appear to be that great with his complete lack of a jumpshot or any offensive moves coupled with his smallish frame, but he's still only 22. There's plenty of time for him to hopefully keep taking big steps forward.

Andris doesn't drop trophies like CWebb.

By the way, what's up with that evil looking guy in the background?

Andris Biedrins Report Cards: 2005-2006 Midterm | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 Midterm | 2006-2007 | 2007-2008 Midterm

Passed on:

#15 Al Jefferson- Just a superior big man who came off a 21-11 campaign. Something Biedrins will never do.
#17 Josh Smith- An athletic freak with the potential to be a superstar who's still only 22.
#26 Kevin Martin- 23.7ppg ain't no joke.
#31 Anderson Varejão- I can't say I enjoy watching him flop/ play, but his motor, defensive hustle, and rebounding are exactly what the Dubs need

Overall grade for 2004 NBA Draft:

The names the Warriors passed on in this draft are a bit alarming, but you can't argue with getting a starting center with the #11 pick. Any way you look at it that's impressive... A-

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2005 NBA Draft

Ike Diogu (#9), Monta Ellis (#40), Chris Taft (#42)

Ike Diogu: It's laughable that not too long ago Chris Mullin boldly proclaimed Ike as untouchable and wouldn't move him as part of a package for Ron Artest. Man, I still have dreams of the Warriors trotting out Boom Dizzle, J-Rich, and Ron-Ron. I don't care who you throw at the 4 and the 5. That's deadly.

Through 3 years in the league Ike has put up 6.5 ppg and 3.3 rpg. It really says something when an NBA player can't beat out Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy for minutes on not one, but two teams. I hated the pick when they made it, briefly fell in love with Ike's arsenal of low post moves and soft touch extending to about 18 feet, and then quickly realized the NBA game is just too fast for him to be anything more than a 9th or 10th man in this league at best.

His low post moves are so nice they even make Dun and Murph look like "assets" worth trading for.

Ike Diogu Report Cards: 2005-2006 Midterm | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 Midterm

Passed on:

#10 Andrew Bynum- Excuse while I jump off the Bay Bridge.
#17 Danny Granger- If Mullin and the Warriors front office weren't so busy making excuses for Dun back then, I bet they wouldn't have overlooked Granger.
#19 Hakim Warrick- Give this guy 30mpg consistently and he'll get you 15ppg and 8rpg.
#21 Nate Robinson- The Warriors would have DOMINATED the All-Star Slam Dunk tourney in the 2000's.
#24 Luther Head- Okay, he's not that great but it would have saved us from several painful Warrior Killer moments.
#27 Linas Kleiza- If the Nuggets didn't pull off the Ron Artest trade as rumored because they wanted to hold onto Linas and his blanket, they've got some serious issues. Still he's a pretty solid player when compared to Ike.
#26 Jason Maxiell- Seems like the nasty PF the Warriors have been searching for.
#30 David Lee- The Warriors wouldn't get killed on the glass nightly if they had Lee playing alongside Biedrins. Props to Isiah for this pick.
#37 Ronny Turiaf- He looks like a superstar every time he plays the Dubs. I know he's not as good as he looks matched up against the Warriors, but he'd give them some nice size and depth down low.

Monta Ellis: Ellis to the Rim is one of the best 2nd round picks of all time and Mullin and company's best draft selection by far. He has become virtually unguardable on the fast break because of his uncanny finishing ability and amazing speed. His defense was absolutely atrocious this past year after a promising second season, but his offensive game is where 53.1% FG happens. My biggest fear is that he's leveled off and will follow the same trajectory as Tony Parker, but hopefully that proves to be a bad comparison.

I don't think I need to tell you much more about his game. If I do, then you've really been missing out.

Future Dream Teamer?

Monta Ellis Report Cards: 2005-2006 Midterm | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 Midterm | 2006-2007 | 2007-2008 Midterm

Passed on:

No one- thank you very much!

Chris Taft: Can you believe there were so many mock drafts that had Chris Taft in the lottery back then? There were a few that even had the Warriors taking Taft at #9. Thank god that didn't happen. Not that their #9 pick Ike Diogu turned out that hot.

The not-so-quite lottery pick at #42.

Passed on:

#45 Louis Williams- From afar seems like another quick combo guard in the mold of Tony Parker and Monta Ellis.
#49 Andray Blatche- Very intriguing young player that could be a great option off the bench for Nellie.
#50 Ryan Gomes- Looks to be a pretty steady forward that could deepen the Warriors thin bench.
#56 Amir Johnson- Don't be surprised if in a few years Amir's playing big minutes on the Pistons. Joe Dumars knows his big men. Mullin just does not.

Chris Taft Report Card: 2005-2006 Midterm

Overall grade for 2005 NBA Draft:

I was talking to my man Fantasy Junkie about this the other week- it's time to admit that Ike's a bust. Taft was cut pretty early into his second season with the Warriors and is currently out of the league. Can't say I really mind taking a shot on him in the second round though. Monta's rise to stardom saved this draft for being a dud... C

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2006 NBA Draft

Patrick O'Bryant (#9), Kosta Perovic (#38)

Patrick O'Bryant: The Notorious P.O.B. has the dubious distinction of being one of the first lottery picks to be demoted to the NBDL. Throw in the even more dubious honor of playing more minutes in the D-League than the NBA and you have yourselves Patrick O'Bust. Don't be surprised if he's not in the NBA in a few years a la Taft.

LL POB!

Passed on:

#11 JJ Redick- Just seeing if you're paying attention.
#14 Ronnie Brewer- The Warriors could have used the depth.
#16 Rodney Carney- I thought the Warriors should have taken him at the time. He hasn't made a major impact, but I'm still willing to bet he has a better NBA career than Project O'Bryant.
#20 Renaldo Balkman- A potential future NBA All-Defensive team member.
#21 Rajon Rondo- How nice would it be having Rondo back up BD?
#23 Josh Boone- Pretty nice rebounder with some good size.
#24 Kyle Lowry- He hasn't done much yet, but he's a reportedly an up and coming defender. Probably an upgrade over CJ Watson at the backup 1 spot.
#26 Jordan Farmar- See #21 Rondo, Rajon
#36 Craig Smith- The Warriors need size/ bulk and Smith might have given them a few good minutes here and there.

Patrick O'Bryant Report Cards: 2006-2007 Midterm | 2006-2007 | 2007-2008 Midterm

Kosta Perovic: The Kosta drafting and signing was just curious all around. During the 2006 NBA Draft times were extremely dark for this organization and its fans. Monty was still around after a horrid season and the team was saturated with big men prospects who had yet to produce in a big way- Zarko Cabarkapa, Ike Diogu, Andris Biedrins, and Chris Taft. So what did they do in this draft? Draft not 1, but 2 more project big men.

We keep hearing how the team is all about being fiscally responsible after handing out the rephrensible contracts to Derek Fisher, Adonal Foyle, Troy Murphy, and Mike Dunleavy, which makes complete sense. What doesn't make sense is signing Perovic to the midlevel exception for two years at $3.5 million (plus an Adonal Foyle-like contract team option for the third season) to play in the DLeague and be cemented to Nellie's bench.

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The Zero Threat Position made famous on GSoM!

Kosta Perovic Report Card: 2007-2008 Midterm

Passed on:

#42 Daniel Gibon- Who doesn't love them some Boobie?
#47 Paul Milsap- Exactly what the Warriors need.
#49 Leon Powe- PR-wise and hoops-wise it would have made so much sense to bring in this local fav, but the Warriors front office and ownership isn't interested in making sense, just cents.

Overall grade for 2006 NBA Draft:

It's completely inexcusable for the front office of an NBA team to have such a poor draft outing... F-

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2007 NBA Draft

Brandan Wright (#8), Marco Belinelli (#18), Stephane Lasme (#46)

Brandan Wright: Wright looks to be a very talented young prospect with a ton of potential. The problem is he has done next to nothing at the NBA level and Nellie's complete lack of faith in him when the Warriors desperately needed depth at the forward spots this season makes you wonder. It also makes you wonder what the Warriors are thinking by investing in a 6'9 power forward who weighs 20 pounds less than the 6'6 shooting guard they moved for him.

Before we get into the BWright passed on list I should add this disclaimer. Unlike the Diogu and O'Bryant picks where I went on record saying I'd take a different player (Hakim Warrick and Rodney Carney respectively), I can't say I would've done anything differently with the #8 pick. I was surprised on Draft Day 2008 to see Brandan Wright fall down to this slot and if I had that #8 pick you can be sure I would've swooped him up as well. The problem is right now, that pick isn't looking so hot.

Unfortunately this pick hasn't panned out yet.

Passed on (it's way too early to tell obviously, but just to throw some darts in the dark):

#9 Joakim Noah- After the first month of the season his rebounding numbers were actually pretty impressive. The Warriors could have used his 7.9 rpg (March) and 6.8 rpg (April) down the stretch. I'm not sold Noah has much upside, but GSoM friend Jonathan Givony from DraftExpress was singing him praise before the season started.
#12 Thaddeus Young- The 76ers got a steal here.
#13 Julian Wright- Was Julian the right Wright to take at #8?
#14 Al Thornton- By the way if this really is the reason why KG to the Bay didn't go down, Chris Mullin should be fired.
#15 Rodney Stuckey- I'm impressed at how he stepped up big in Chauncey Billups' absence in the Magical knock-out game.
#16 Nick Young- It would have been nice to have a shooter and scorer of Young's caliber this past year coming off the bench.
#17 Sean Williams- He seemed to hit the rookie wall hard this season, but he has the makings of a big time shot blocker, nice rebounder, and thunderous dunker.

Brandan Wright Report Card: 2007-2008 Midterm

Marco Belinelli: Jiri Welsch- oops, I mean Marco Bellinelli didn't exactly set the hoops world on fire this past year. So far he's been nothing but pointless hype. You know it's bad when Nellie asks a rookie to go down to the DLeague and they straight up refuse. After all that offseason hype from the media and the Warriors organization, you'd expect more than a 2-guard with terrible defensive instincts and horrendous shot selection.

Can you believe some people had Belinelli penciled in the starter at the 2-guard spot over Monta this season? Can you believe some people actually thought he was going to be better than Jason Richardson this year?

Another off-balance jumper? Good god.

Passed on (this pick really ain't looking so hot right now, but the jury's still out):

#19 Javaris Crittenton- What's not to like about a young point guard with size who could back up BD this season?
#21 Daequan Cook- An up and coming athletic scorer.
#31 Carl Landry- There's a reason this guy made the All-Rookie team this season. I doubt the Rockets would have the success they had this past year without him.
#35 Glen Davis- He's probably the next Michael Sweetney and Nellie would never play him till he slimmed down, but it's a thought.

Marco Belinelli Report Card: 2007-2008 Midterm

Stephane Lasme: NCAA swat machine Stephane Lasme didn't even last 1 full month with the Warriors. Props to Lasme though for working his way back to the NBA for some major minutes with the tank-job 2007-2008 Miami Heat. He actually wound up averaging 5.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 0.9 steals, and 1.5 blocks with the Heat which betters both Wright (4.0 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 0.2 steals, and 0.6 blocks) and Belinelli's (2.9 ppg, 0.5 apg, 0.2 steals, and 0.0 blocks) lines for the seasons. I'll be the first one to tell you that that's completely meaningless, but seriously who would've thought?

Pat Riley approved.

Passed on (seems pretty inconsequential, but so far):

#48 Marc Gasol- Hey the Grizz seemed to want a Gasol in return for Pau.
#49 Aaron Gray- Here's a darkhorse backup center for the next 4-7 years in the association.
#52 Taurean Green- Worth a look, but maybe not.

Stephane Lasme Report Card: 2007-2008 Midterm

Overall grade for 2007 NBA Draft:

There's always the temptation to give this young draft class an incomplete, since it's too early to really say. But that's just a cop out plus very boring. This Warriors draft class has already produced 1 cut (Lasme), another DLeague level player in that not-so-fine Kosta and POB tradition, and one huge question mark in a skinny forward who doesn't have the bulk to play the 4 or 5 nor the jumper or footspeed to play the 3 in the NBA. We won't even get into that cheap and questionable 2007 Draft Day Jason Richardson and Brandan Wright swap here. Let's check back next year, but as of right now... D-

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That's a lot of high draft picks from Mullin that haven't panned out and a lot of nice names they passed on. If it weren't for the solid Biedrins pick and the money Monta find, it would be a complete disaster as of now. It's way too early to judge that 2007 class or even Kosta Perovic, but it's pretty fair to make some strong assessments about the rest.

Overall Grade for 2004-2007 Golden State Warriors Drafts: C-

All eyes are focused on who the Warriors should hire to follow the legendary Don Nelson after this season, but few seem to be closely monitoring the status of Chris Mullin's current GM deal which expires in 2009. If I were the one deciding whether or not to extend Mullin's tenure in the front office, I'd put a lot of weight into the progress and performance of Kosta Perovic, Brandan Wright, Marco Belinelli, and the 2008 Warrior Draft picks this upcoming season. Coupled with his embarrassing contract negotiation history (Adonal Foyle, Derek Fisher, Mike Dunleavy, and Troy Murphy) I can't say I'm all that sold on Mullin being in the driver's seat of the Warriors' front office, especially if his drafting record doesn't take a huge turn for the better. As of right now it really looks like it's time to not only plan for a critical head coaching search in the summer of 2009, but possibly also a search for a new GM.

Check out: Don't Forget Your Warriors' Draft History

Also don't forget to check out what our friends over at NBADraft.net and DraftExpress have on display year round.

What's your grade for the 2004-2007 Golden State Warriors drafts (rock the vote in the poll)? Any early predictions for their 2008 performance?

1 recs | Comment 22 comments

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Comments

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Drafting is two things, luck and scouting. You need good scouts and you need to predict how well the players will be from transferring from collegiate sports to pro sports. NFL and MLB are deep drafts, while NBA is small so its easier for fans to keep track on those players (I for one actually watch College ball).

But still your so pessimistic. Our rookies didn’t even get to play much. Wright and Belinelli are going to be good, Marco was one of the best prospects coming out of Italy and Wright’s athleticism and ceiling potentials is very high. Give it more time. Geez.
I’m probably one of the few who still misses J-Rich alot, but to give the Warrior rookies no credit is absurd.

04 – Was a good draft
05 – Was good too, but Bynum was my pick that year, lol look how good he is now.
06 – Was not too good, but the class was weak
07 – Great Draft imo.

by ejdacanay on May 19, 2008 1:06 AM PDT 0 recs

I have to hand it to you Atma.

You’ve dogged Brandan pretty hard the whole year, but you’ve stuck to it, and you’re (slightly) justified in doing so.

At #8 overall, i don’t think we passed up on too much with what was left on the board at all. They only guys i think could come back to bite us in the tail is Thaddeus Young and Rodney Stuckey. I’m giving Julian Wright a minimal chance of being better than Brandan. But I would’ve taken him if he fell to us (which wasn’t going to happen anyway).

I remember in 06’ I wanted the Warriors to draft Rudy Gay and was on the edge of my seat hoping upon hope that his name wasn’t going to be called at number 8. Well we all know how that turned out.

The next guy i wanted was Ronnie Brewer. I thought he’d be great on the Warriors.

So who’s it going to be in 08’?

To me the Warriors big board looks like this:

1. Rose
2. Beasley

—-—-—-BIg Drop Off Alert!!!!-—-——-

3. Mayo
4. Bayless
5. Lopez, B
6. Gallinari
7. Love
8. Westbrook
9. Jordan
10. Augustin
11. Randolph
12. Greene
13. Koufos
14. Budinger.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on May 19, 2008 1:27 AM PDT 0 recs

TPE anyone?

he author fails to mention anything about the JRich TPE, which is intimately interrelated to how he has done in last year’s draft. Unless Mullin max’s that value, the trade’s potential is unfulfilled.

Let’s see what Mullin does with the TPE around this year’s draft – that’s one part of his “draft history” that truly is still out. The TPE is an asset from the JRich trade that still has some big time value. We may yet see the Dubs pick up a big by trading the #1 pick for a contract (virtually the reverse of the JRich-BWright trade). Then because we have matching rights, we could still be resigning AB & Ellis. If Mullin deepens Nelson’s bench with a solid veteran instead of another young post who might not even be available when we pick, then he’s doing his job much better than he’d done up til Nelson arrived. We have one more year with Baron and Nelson, does Mullin act for now or the future?

by hardcore on May 19, 2008 9:35 PM PDT up 0 recs

The book is still out on some of these NBA picks. In both cases there is development that could take place in that Wright is young and raw and Bellinelli needs to learn how to play in the NBA. If I recall Manu Ginobli did not set the league on fire his first year. He and Bellinelli have very similar body types.

by justin3007 on May 19, 2008 5:59 AM PDT 0 recs

I think Sasha Vujacic is a much more likely peak for Marco

and I’d be fine with that. Vujacic played terrible D when he came in the league too, as do most European imports, but he learned (from Kobe). During the Nuggets series he killed them with his shooting, but more encouragingly during the Jazz series he was extremely useful on the defensive end.

by belilaugh on May 19, 2008 4:31 PM PDT up 0 recs

erroneous use of "per game" stats.

Citing Noah’s March and April rebound as something the Warriors could have used down the stretch assumes that Noah would have had the PT to get those rebounds. I don’t think there’s any evidence to suggest that this is true. Per minute played Noah was more or less an equivalent rebounder to Wright, with a bit of an edge in rebound percentage. That’s about the only area where Noah had the marginal edge. Per minute, Brandan was the more efficient and more productive scorer, blocked more shots, turned the ball over less and committed more fouls.

Similarly, the context of Lasme’s numbers “which betters” Wright’s stats is minutes played for a team at the end of a washout season. Per game numbers again are not terribly meaningful in assessing Lasme’s performance vs Brandan’s. The hapless Heat gave Stephan 18mpg at the end of their season. Per minute, Brandan was a signficantly better scorer, shooter and rebounder and the blocked shot differential wasn’t terribly pronounced in Lasme’s favor.

Now there may be legitimate reasons to believe that either Noah or Lasme were better than Brandan and got more PT accordingly, but those reasons aren’t particularly apparent based on what those players did when they were on the court. Maybe something that doesn’t show up in the box score explains this, but the per-game stats are a superficial and meaningless comparison. The biggest difference appears to be that those guys played on terrible teams where the coaching staff was more willing to toss rookies into games. There’s zero reason based on their stats that either Noah or Lasme would have been able to put up their total numbers in a GSW uniform or any reason to believe they’d have outperformed Wright if the surroundings were reversed.

by jae on May 19, 2008 10:17 AM PDT 1 recs

...

I wonder why you took the time to post this. The entire thing just reaks of bitterness and contempt towards management. Regardless of the improvements we’ve made over the last 3 years you just feel like complaining for the hell of it.

by xcoma on May 19, 2008 12:46 PM PDT 0 recs

overly gracious appraisal by most here

Mullin’s draft history in total is unsatisfactory, and that doesn’t even count the contracts he doled out for good measure. AB & Ellis, and a whole lot of nuthin other than maybe – maybe – BWright’s climb from historic DNP-CD games to a rotation contributor. Anyone looking for Marco to help is still fooling themself imo. It’s not bitter to be honest in evaluating our GM, and the improvement during the past 2 years, not 3, is from Nelson not Mullin’s work. Nelson brought out the best in Baron, Jackson & both AB & Ellis with his style of play, and was the one who orchestrated a mini-revival of this franchise to a modicum of relevance if not respectability. Loved Mullin as a player, but loath the hole he dug us and all the time, energy, and resources we’ve used to just barely dig out.

by hardcore on May 19, 2008 1:05 PM PDT 0 recs

The way I see it.

First of all while I do think it is fair and necessary to look at the guys who the W’s passed on who turned out great, I think you need to look at the other side too. There were a lot of guys who turned out to be much bigger bust drafted ahead or right around the time the W’s drafted. I assume we are grading against the performance of Mullins peers and not using 20/20 hindsight to cherry-pick players to make Mullin look bad. So I’m going to include some “thank God we didn’t take this guy…” players in my analysis.

2004:
To me AB at 11 was great. As Atma pointed out any time you can get a starting Center at 11 you did a great job. The fact that after having seen all these guys (AB and everyone drafted after him) play for a few years in the league and there are still only one or two that I would trade AB for says a lot. Don’t forget the likes of Childress, Araujo and Luke Jackson were all picked before AB and guys like Robert Swift, Telfair and Humphries were picked right after him.

Given the circumstances I gotta give Mullin a solid A.

2005:
This is a tricky year to grade. You have a disappointment mixed with an incredible pick and a guy who got injured before we could ever see if he could play at this level (Taft suffered from back problems that ended his career, but actually looked kinda ok in the limited minutes he played).

I’ll start with Diogu. Yeah we could have done better… a lot better (Bymun, ouch) but to be fair here are a few guys selected right in the same neighborhood: Webster, Villanueva, Frye, Fran Vasquez, Korolev and Sean May. These guys are hardly setting the league on fire, in fact Vasquez never even made it to the league. Diogu also gets a couple bonus points for doing just enough to help Larry Bird pull the trigger on a franchise saving trade.

Now as far as Monta goes I think that this pick has to far outweigh the miss step in the first round. Serious bonus points for picking Monta.

Taft… meh. What do you expect to get at that point in the draft. The little he played before getting hurt showed that at most he would be a serviceable back-up center, which would have actually been great for the middle of the second round. I’ll call this pick a wash as far as it factors into the grade.

I think I’ve gotta give this draft a B just because of Monta. B- at worst.

2006:
First of all, this was a really awful draft. Seriously take a look at some of the names selected near POB, even as high as #3. Atma’s passed on list just goes to show how thin this group was. We may still see a few guys break out and have great careers but so far… yuck.

However, there is still no excuse for picking a guy a #9 that is never even mildly helpful to your team. Yeah, POB showed some flashes here and there but he never seemed to have any passion for the game or drive to make an impression when he hit the floor. even with the thin draft there are plenty of guys who could have made a bigger impact.

Perovic… oh Perovic. I honestly have no problem with this pick. At the time I was hoping for Powe and obviously Milsap would be great, but again taking a chance on a guy in the second round is fine by me. What i do have a problem with is signing him for the kind of money we did.

I’ll give this one an F+ just because it was a weak draft and Kosta could (but probably won’t) become a useful player.

2007:
To me, if you are going to grade this draft this early on you still have to factor in some upside and use some per-minute measures to see how guys stack up.

Obviously Wright would have done much better on a lottery team where he might get some consistent burn. His per-minute stats look great and he projects by all measures to at least be a solid NBA player if not a top level one. I can’t argue with this pick at all at this point. Yeah, the jury is still out and it may have been nice to have a more “NBA ready” guy this year for the playoff push, but this guy might end up being a stud.

Marco was a surprise to me. I had seen his name in some mock drafts around the mid-to-late 20s. Honestly I was expecting Crittenton and I would still probably make that pick over Marco, despite the hit to my Italian pride.

Lasme to me was a bit of a throw away pick. I just don’t think someone his size with his limitations offensively was going to get much burn for Nellie. At the time OZ had me drinking the Koolaid on Mcguire but honestly I didn’t really follow him this year. I guess they get a minor deduction for taking a guy who was such a bad fit for the system.

I’d have to say… C+ They picked the right guy at #8 but I think we could have done better than Marco and Lasme.

So overall that comes up to a C+. That F really hurt the average. If I wasn’t grading on an average I could have easily gone up to a B-.

Drafts can be unpredictable and hard to judge without proper context, but I’d have to say I’m satisfied, not thrilled, but satisfied with Mullin’s draft record so far. There were definitely a few time he missed but Andris, Monta and Wright were all solid-to-great picks.

"...OlympicMike is clearly the Barack Obama of GSoM"-Sleepy

by olympicmike on May 19, 2008 1:12 PM PDT 0 recs

Pick by pick...

Andris Biedrins – This is an A- pick. It’s an A- because it didn’t bring immediate benefit, but having read articles regarding Mullin’s faith in Biedrins just after the draft, it becomes clear that Mullin’s ability to evaluate talent is genuine. Biedrins will continue to improve, and is already a young, plus starting center in the league.

Ike DIogu – Diogu was undersized for a power forward, but was a very productive and occasionally dominating force in his days at Arizona State. He hasn’t panned out greatly at the NBA level. It’s worth noting, though, that despite my (and the article’s author) feelings about Mike Dunleavy, he had a wonderful year last year. The fact that Dunleavy gets more minutes than DIogu is for many reasons a no brainer. At best I’d consider Diogu a solid situational role player, a Malik Rose sort with better post moves. At worst, probbaly a bust. However, Diogu netted us both Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington, who brought us the playoffs in ‘07, something that I flat out don’t believe would’ve happened with a Ron Artest acquisition. That said, I’ll give Ike a C-. Probably D in terms of retrospective talent, but he became an important trade piece.

Monta Ellis – This is an A pick if it’s in the first round. Second round? That’s an A+.

Chris Taft – Some analysts suspected he could be a lottery pick. He slipped from that vaunted status all the way to the depths of the second round, and Mullin snagged him. From a value standpoint, getting a rumored lottery pick in the second round is an undeniable steal. And truth be told, I liked what I saw from Taft in his very limited minutes. He played hard, and he had a serious defensive motor. The dilemma here isn’t the pick, it’s that Taft’s back gave out. Given the potential upside of the pick, I can rate it no lower than a C.

Patrick O’Bryant – This is the interesting one. Based on what we’ve gotten out of him, yeah, it’s an F, especially at the #9 slot. However, this is the flipside of the coin that the “Nelson saved Mullin” crowd fails to consider, namely, that Nelson absolutely screwed Mullin as far as POB is concerned. This looks like an atrocious pick because Nelson never gave O’Bryant a damn second of burn. To remind everyone, O’Bryant’s best game at the NBA level came in the ‘07-’08 season’s first win at home vs. the Clippers, a game in which the crowd gave Patrick an enormous ovation for his play. So what does Nelson do? He signs a career non-factor in DJ Mbenga and boots POB even further down the depth chart. O’Bryant won’t be back next year, that’s almost a certainty. But I have serious concenrs that we’ll look back at this as a disasterous misuse of talent. I expect a very nice career from O’Bryant. That said, I give this pick an incomplete.

Kosta Perovic – I know next to nothing about him except that he played well the two or three times he got in a game. I’ll give it a D+ pending furthur evaluation, and considering he’s a second rounder at over seven feet.

Brandan Wright – This is at this moment a B+ pick. At 19/20, Wright showed me more than enough to believe in him. I expect big things, and even having only seen small things, this is a good pick.

Marco Belinelli – Seemed to get more comfortable late in the year, which is kind of strange since the pressure was greater. I can’t argue the pick helped at all last year, and I still have faith in his value, but there’s no argument to be made that at this point it’s a D pick at best. I should say, though, that I anticipate it being at least a B- this time next year.

Stephane Lasme – I think the pick was a C- for the position they took him. I think the decision to cut him was more dubious given his defensive motor. He’s a puzzling one, but I don’t think drafting him was a mistake in and of itself.

While I haven’t averaged these all out mathematically, I’m inclined to give a B+ across the board, since the degree to which th good picks have been franchise building picks far exceeds the problems with those that didn’t pan out.

by Zack Vank on May 19, 2008 3:14 PM PDT 0 recs

as a certifiable member

and possibly chairman of the “Nelson saved Mullin club”, I have to admit POB & Kosta were drafted for Montgomery’s team, and with the hope or expectation that the Dubs could move Foyle (and maybe even Baron that same summer). When Mullin realized he couldn’t pull himself out of the morass, he then turned to Nelson because Montgomery had failed with that roster already and Baron would have imploded.

Diogu was the repeat of the Fuller pick years earlier – great college stats & a “safe” pick that could be defended. Again he’d’ve been better off in a Monty style, or on the Jazz, but that’s water over the dam. As far as Diogu being the “key” to the Indy trade, unless someone has some quotes from the time that trade went down from Bird and that he saw it that way, I’m compelled to think that’s rationalizing the Diogu pick. Frankly, they were relieved to unload Jackson, and Harrington was the cost of doing so.

Montgomery hadn’t gotten much out of either AB or Ellis to expect what they would do later – it is Nelson who max’d their talent to the team’s benefit. He also got more out of Baron & Jackson than others. Mullin’s drafts can’t be examined intelligently without the greater context of his other GM brainfarts – hiring Monty and the contracts given to the Foyle, Murphy, and Dunleavy. The chemistry didn’t work, the parts didn’t fit, and we are STILL paying for those mistakes. Nelson hasn’t been perfect, but I shudder to think where we’d’ve been without him these past two seasons.

by hardcore on May 19, 2008 9:13 PM PDT up 0 recs

I'd give him a C+

because I’m with you on everything up to 2007 (although in my opinion what you said about Hakim Warrick could apply to Diogu as well, so I don’t think that was a player we should have taken necessarily).

But calling the 2007 draft incomplete isn’t a cop out, it is what it is. You say you have to wonder about Wright because of Nellie’s complete lack of faith in him, but that makes me wonder about Nelson more than Wright. Because that one stretch where Biedrins was injured and Wright played, he played really well, showed he could be at least a backup, and then got shelved again. I don’t see what more he could have done in his situation to show he was ready. I think a better assessment on him can be made next year.

And there’s no point calling Belinelli a bust at this point when he hasn’t played. Do you guys really think he isn’t going to play his entire career? Once he gets a chance, we’ll see what happens. People may have thought he was going to be an immediate contributor, but once it was found out that he wasn’t, that doesn’t make him a bust, it makes him a project. We’ll see what happens in the Olympics and then next year and then we can make a call.

by belilaugh on May 19, 2008 4:21 PM PDT 0 recs

haven't played

Marco was hailed by Mullin as an instant contributor, as someone he’d watched for years, and was his “big” surprise pick for this team – he’s older than a lot of other rookies who have had better first years. Nelson tried and played KAz and Marco & KAz beat him out for backup minutes. Unfortunately we still have the loser of that competition under contract while KAz is free to fly elsewhere. There isn’t a guy on Atma’s list (Crittenton-Cook-Landry-GDavis-) that I wouldn’t pick over Marco, and that’s saying something since I rarely agree with Atma…

BWright’s opportunity to develop was lost this year due to Nelson’s decision to go for the playoffs rather than develop a skinny rookie post player. Hindsight, obviously since we failed to make the playoffs that didn’t pan out. Whether Wright was ever part of the plan for this year or picked to be a KG trading piece has been debated endlessly, but it didn’t work this year either way.

by hardcore on May 19, 2008 9:28 PM PDT up 0 recs

I think Brandan still developed this year.

...Now he just has to prove to be consistent over the course of a full season and quality minutes.

But to say that Brandan hasn’t developed over the past year is a fallacy when behind the scenes he’s been with the trainers and assistant coaches, relentlessly working on his game.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on May 19, 2008 11:49 PM PDT up 0 recs

That's what I'm saying

he moved from instant contributor to project. If he was an instant contributor then he would have been a bust. But he didn’t play because he played European defense, and he needed to work on that. So when he is ready, we will see if he is a bust or not.

by belilaugh on May 20, 2008 8:21 AM PDT up 0 recs

Need better scouts

Hey Atma,
Great job going back and doing the analysis on the drafts. Mullie’s track record on personnel hasn’t been that great—hiring Montgomery? But he saved himself on the Nelson hire. Mullie needs better scouts and better decisions. At least Cohan has a basketball guy running the show but he needs to do better to get more value.

by Funaddict on May 20, 2008 4:27 AM PDT 0 recs

still think rondo and farmar are overrated.

rondo is just on a team with the big 3. imo any PG can look good on that team with the big three they have.

farmar tries too hard to be good and ends up making his team pay for it at times.

by jchao204 on May 20, 2008 6:18 PM PDT 0 recs

Totally disagree on Rondo

Most Celtics observers would agree that he’s far more crucial part of that team than Ray Allen. He’s a flat better player, If you factor in defense and ballhandling, and it’s not that close. If there is a “big-three” on the Cs right now, it’s KG-Pierce-Rondo.

Sign ^^^^ !!!

by Sleepy Freud on May 20, 2008 9:43 PM PDT up 0 recs

Rondo looked promising last year as well. Yes, it’s probably true that playing alongside Garnett and Allen has helped, but his year 1 to year 2 improvement was rather in line with the sort of improvement many players see in their first few years. As a rookie without Garnett or Allen in company, he had an intriguingly high adjusted plus/minus. What he’s done this year shouldn’t surprise anyone and shouldn’t be discounted as merely showing up for work while Allen Garnett and Pierce earn paychecks.

He is not flash. He doesn’t put up huge scoring numbers. High PPG is what gets the most attention and gains the most fan and media praise. Rondo doesn’t do that, but what he does (takes care of the ball, rebounds very well for his position, plays into their defensive scheme) is equally important.

by jae on May 21, 2008 10:59 AM PDT up 0 recs

My 2 cents

I loved this post and the comments. Very good agruments from a number of perspectives. My conclusion: don’t let Mullin pick at 14. Either bundle a trade including our first rounder to get some immediate veteren help or create a trade to move up as high as we can within reason. Mullin’s ability to draft pretty much sucks whether that be due to scouting or whatever. Of course he is not alone as many of you pointed out. We have too much riding on making the right move this year to get us back into the playoffs.

CWebb is undoubtedly the answer but I forgot the question.

by commish on May 22, 2008 10:42 AM PDT 0 recs

Mullin's Drafts

I think Mully is forever haunted by the ghost of Derrick McKey. I think he will always look for the wirey 6-10 guy who can do alittle of everything but is a master of none. I have two issues with his drafts. 1. Draft a true Point Guard. This team needs someone to take the pressure off of Baron and create opportunities for others. We have seen all these tweeners come in who are also streaky jumpshooters that stagnate the offense and produce nothing of significance. 2. Play the size he drafts. There is a mental game that good coaches use different approaches to motivate the players. Nellie’s “My way or the highway” approach crushed what little confidence POB had. How about building the guy up a bit. Don’t tell me we couldn’t have used a 7 footer with a 7’6 wingspan even to just block shots and rebound. Who cares if he had no offensive game we have enough people on the roster to take the shots. For all the bad PR that POB got, when I saw him on the floor he produced. Why draft these guys if you weren’t going to use them. No more 6’8 PF/SF tweeners. Either go big or small.

by Ultimate Warrior on May 28, 2008 10:28 PM PDT 0 recs

Vanity

Bellinelli was a pure vanity pick for Mullin. I bet he saw a lot of himself in Marco and wanted to project himself into Marco’s game and time on the court—vicariously.

The drafting of and subsequent release of Lasme was really puzzling. I hung out with a Warriors photographer one night at Pyramid and he told me that Lasme really wrenched his ankle in the Vegas summer league when Wright landed on it. I don’t think he was ever really right. But then to cut him for Mbenga, who was then cut for Webber, who cost the team at least three, precious games, was just bizarre. They got absolutely zero out of that pick and ultimately that roster spot.

This is a big draft for Mullin as the level of talent is rising. The Trailblazers are loaded, The Lakers look like a young dynasty, Houston is good and will get better, The Jazz are loaded and I predict that The Kings will deal Artest and get better as a result. The need to remain competitive through competent player evaluation and selection is critical.

by SlamDharma on Jun 4, 2008 1:31 AM PDT 0 recs