Drafting for compatibility (Part 1)
Apologies for yet another draft diary, but I'm going to try to come at this from a bit of a different angle. I want to look at who in the draft is "compatible" with the Warriors. Before you assume that this is another way of saying drafting for need, its not. I'm a firm believer in drafting the Best Player Available, but I think with the 14th pick you also have to look at the Best Player Available that works for the W's.
By compatibility, I mean someone who can work well with the players we currently have and/or are planning to build around, rather than drafting someone who duplicates an existing skillset or player that we already have. (Obviously, I am not suggesting that we do something stupid like draft Bowie instead of Jordan because we have Drexler, but since we don't have the 1st or 2nd pick, that exception doesn't exist for us -- otherwise, I'd grab Rose in a heartbeat)

The most recent example I can use to illustrate this is the drafting of Brandan Wright. While I love Wright's play and potential, its been mentioned here and also by Tim Kawakami, is that Wright and Biedrins both play the same role in that system, someone who can clean up on the glass, get garbage baskets, and move without the ball. Neither player has much of a face-up game or is expected to develop one. Neither Wright or Biedrins can initiate the offense. Both are long and skinny guys who will get pushed around in the post by the beefier frontcourt players (Short of injecting HGH, neither player can be expected to bulk up into Charles Barkley over a season).
In addition to that, Wright is one of the few movable chips we have if we want to trade for someone, move up in the draft, etc. I'm not saying that Wright is incompatible, but that if we're holding onto Biedrins, then that makes Wright more superfluous.
So far I've been talking about big men in this post, but if we're talking compatibility, we really should consider both of the consensus core players for the W's for the foreseeable future: Monte Ellis and Andris Biedrins. Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson are too old to be considered building blocks, and I'm not including Wright for reasons stated above. And even though Baron is currently our best player, I think that Mullin and Nelson need to be shrewd and assume that Davis has at best 2 more peak years in him, given his injury history and general aging trends for PGs. I don't think anyone else currently on the W's constitues a core player. Some people may want to include Belinelli in that group, but he's got a ways to go to prove himself this season to make it up there, IMO. His defense is way too shaky and his offense too inconsistent to merit a lot of minutes in any role other than designated 3 point gunner at this point.
If we're looking in the draft for someone to complement Monte Ellis, we need a bigger guard who can play either 1/2, which will allow Ellis to shift around depending on matchups. This guard will definitely need to be a good defender to make up for Ellis' deficiencies, as well as have some ability to initiate the offense in a halfcourt situation since Ellis can do so, but is much much better at doing so in a uptempo or broken field situation where he can drive and dish. Also, any guard playing alongside Ellis needs to have good 3 point range -- Ellis may or may not develop this shot, but it will still take some time for it to become reliable for him.
Who in the draft fits this criteria?
First two in my mind are Rose and Mayo, but I'm going to eliminate them as being out of the Warriors potential draft range (unless the W's blow up the team to get either one). So next on the list (within range of our pick):
- Eric Gordon - He's a lights out bomber who can score from anywhere on the court. At 6-4, 215, he plays a physical style of defense that can match up to bigger guards. The one thing on my list that he isn't is a true point, and can't really initate an offense, but with him and Ellis in the backcourt together makes me swoon over the scoring punch.
- Russell Westbrook -- He definitely brings the defense to the table and can more handle taking on the guards that Ellis can't. He has also shown flashes of good offensive play in his time at UCLA, but with him its more of a crapshoot as to how good he is offensively, His 3 point shot is a bit inconsistent.
- Mario Chalmers - Can shoot the 3, and is a physical defender, but at a listed 6-2, may not be able to D-up the big guards in the league. He is a decent, not excellent ballhandler, and is not considered a true point guard, but more of a 2 playing 1 due to his height.
- Chris Douglas-Roberts - Oozes with savvy/basketball IQ/whatever the scouts call it, and is a good defender in the Tayshaun Prince mold at a skinny 6-6, 195. Is probably itching to redeem himself after choking away the NCAA title, and has a funky intermediate game that will appeal to Nelson's quirky side as well as a good 3 point shot. Shot over 50% for his collegiate career.
My Sleeper - Lester Hudson - Undersized and overaged, yes. But he reminds me of DaJuan Wagner, in that he's explosive, quick, and a solidly-built offensive guard who can play a little point. Has a good 3 point shot (was bombs away from downtown, although in an inferior league)
Brandon Rush? doesn't handle well enough. Chase Budinger? not a good enough defender at the 2.
As for compatibilty with Biedrins, I've noted some of the things needed above. A big guy who can shoot an outside jumper, at least top of the key range. (I keep thinking of one of the Warriors favorite plays - where Biedrins sets a high pick for Baron/SJax then rolls to the basket, would have yet another option to it if the big man in the play can hit that jumper). A bulkier player to guard/post up against the widebodies. Biedrins is listed as 245, but doesn't seem to play up to that weight.
Compatible players in the 2008 draft:
Again, eliminating Beasley from the equation, too high for us to jump to.
- Kevin Love -- wasn't sold on him based on watching him in Pac-10 play, as much as some of the fanboys on this blog really pushed for him. But recent reports of him slimming down, as well as his solid combine showing make me think that he would do better on the Warriors than I originally thought. He's got a shot out to the college 3 point line at least, and definitely has the bulk. I thought that he might not have quick enough feet/lateral quickness, but his Lane Agility times at the NBA Combine were at the top for his position/size. Currently slotted to go above our slot, but Warriors *might* be able to trade up for him.
- Danilo Gallinari -- I'm a little mixed at putting him here because I think he fits the model point forward concept that Nelson loves, but he's pretty light and isn't much of a banger inside. He definitely can shoot the ball, as well as having excellent passing skills for his size.
- Marreese Speights - much of the positives about him come from DraftExpress' comments here (http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Cross-Country-Workout-Swing-Part-Two,-Abunassar-Impact-Basketball-2885/) but it also reinforces the main negative commonly heard about him: his motor. If Nelson in part never played O'Bryant because of his lack of motor, would he do the same with Speights? Aside from that, he has both the bulk and the shooting touch. He also played very uptempo in the Florida offense, so there's no question as to whether he can do the same with the W's.
- Javale McGee - doesn't yet have the bulk, but has a good disposition (gets nasty on the low blocks), he also has good perimeter ability. He hasn't wowed any one with his workouts, which means that teams are putting up smokescreens in hopes of him falling to them or he really actually sucks.
My Sleeper - J.J. Hickson. Paul Millsap. That is all.
Anthony Randolph? Brandon Wright 2.0 DeAndre Jordan? too slow and motor questions.
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
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Comments
Interesting idea.
I’d hesitate to rank Gordon highly though. I have a whole lot of concerns about someone who is noted as a shooter who didn’t actually shoot that well. He can miss from anywhere on the court as well, as he showed. He also looked less and less comfortable as a player as the season wore on. Attribute this perhaps to the coaching changes and turmoil in the program, but it doesn’t speak highly for his ability to handle adversity that his game fell apart when it was most important for it to come together.
by jae on Jun 11, 2008 10:30 PM PDT 0 recs
He also had a wrist injury late in the season.
could be a reason why his shooting got worse.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
by kenntoe on
Jun 12, 2008 12:37 AM PDT
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he also ran out of gas late in the season
as Indiana had no bench after the interim coach suspended two backup guards.
by Hac Man on
Jun 12, 2008 2:02 PM PDT
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The wrist injury is a reasonable excuse for his decline. It was to his non-shooting hand, but it could have been a factor. Running out of gas and not dealing with the coaching situation would be a concern for me though. If he’s declining at the end of a 30 game season with 40 minute games on a 35 second clock, how will he deal with 82 games in the NBA? If a coaching change causes him to lose his shooting touch, does he have the makeup to deal with the challenges of the NBA? I don’t know anything about the guy other than the few games I saw, but I’d be concerned by both the low shooting percentage and the downward trajectory of his season. I’d really want a team drafting him to do their due-diligence on these questions before investing a high lottery pick on him, as some predict. However, it he slips to 14, then he could be a steal.
by jae on
Jun 12, 2008 2:59 PM PDT
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I may be off but....
For some reason he reminds me a little of Harold “Baby Jordan” Miner
by goldenstatefan on
Jun 12, 2008 9:51 AM PDT
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I dont like Gordon
but I think he’s got more game than that. I watched a lot of Indiana games early, but didnt see him much later in the season when he looked much worse. From what I saw the “better version of Ben Gordon” comparisons seem pretty accurate.
by sam23 on
Jun 12, 2008 1:35 PM PDT
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I cant see
how a Monta/Gordon backcourt works well. Seems like theyd be far too similar to complement each other.
by sam23 on Jun 11, 2008 11:13 PM PDT 0 recs
Gordon
has far more range on his jumpshot which is said to have “picture perfect” mechanics and unlimited range.
Ellis has a good, but not great jumper and has limited range on it. I also don’t think the fit would be good, seeing as how Gordon will have to become a PG just like Monta needs to, but I think he’ll be at least as good as Ben Gordon.
Is it just me or does EJ remind anyone else of a smaller Paul Pierce as his best case scenario?
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
by kenntoe on
Jun 12, 2008 12:40 AM PDT
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Gordon played a little point at Indiana
but didn’t do too well in that so they scrapped that plan. I put Gordon on the list more for his shooting range and ability to defend bigger guards. Also, he posted some very good numbers at the combine, so I think that he can actually get better as he continues to work on his game.
I actually see EJ more in the mold of Pierce’s teammate, Ray-Ray.
by Hac Man on
Jun 12, 2008 2:40 AM PDT
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monta and gordon
i know gordon has more range and is a little more physical, I just meant similar in that neither is likely to ever be a true PG and neither is likely to ever be a good defender. Shouldve clarified.
by sam23 on
Jun 12, 2008 6:45 AM PDT
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Love
I’m not even a huge fan of the guy, but the more I think about it, the more he seems like the player who’d help us the most this year (besides Beasley and Rose).
Hac’s right: it’s not likely that Biedrins and Brandan will play much together, at least under Nellie. Brandan didn’t get to play for awhile, and then to play some in Biedrins’ absence and played quite well… and then didn’t really get to play once Biedrins came back. It’s nice to think that we have two good young bigs to slot into our lineup, but the truth is we won’t get them both very often in Nellie’s system. Nellie will always want one big on the floor that can hit jumpers… thus the use of of Al at the 4 and even the 5, thus the odd signing of Croshere, and the odd re-signing of Webber.
Kevin Love could be that guy. He could hit some jumpers, AND he’s big enough to defend opposite one of our skinny guys, AND he’s a nifty passer, always a plus in Nellieball. He’s not hugely mobile, but Biedrins and Brandan are relatively quick and extremely rangy, so they could help when he gets run on… they just seem like they’d mesh.
I’m not convinced that Love will be a star by any means, but I am convinced he’d fit really well on this version of the team. I’d love to see us trade up to get him.
by onlxn on Jun 12, 2008 1:56 AM PDT 0 recs
Link
for NBA.com doing draft coverage for the dubs.
http://broadband.nba.com/cc/playa.php?content=video&url=http://broadband.nba.com/cc/playa.php?content=video&url=http://boss.streamos.com/wmedia/nba/nbacom/draft/previews/08draft_teamneeds_goldenstate.asx&video=blank&nbasite=nba&video=blank&nbasite=warriors&video=blank&nbasite=warriors
Just like I said, Donte Green out of Syracuse. You guys failed to mention him. 6’10” with a shot. Good guy to train under Al and Croshere.
Keep Monta Movement.
by danielholl on Jun 12, 2008 1:37 PM PDT 0 recs
Donte Greene
Off of initial observation, he seems appealing, a 6-10 guy who can shoot the 3. But that just gives us more of what we already have (Al Harrington) and not what we are lacking.
I’m generally wary of Syracuse guys defending in the NBA, because they play so much 2-3 zone, which camouflages lack of lateral speed.
At the NBA Combine, he actually measured in at 6’9” (with shoes) and 221 pounds. That’s a little on the light side, but he then went and had a total of 2 reps on the bench press. That’s T-W-O. By comparison, Beasley did 19 and Kevin Love had 18 reps. That tells me he really needs to bulk up, so we have the same issue we have with Brandan Wright (or we could just say that he’s Wright with a 3 point shot).
by Hac Man on
Jun 12, 2008 2:01 PM PDT
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I've been on Donte Greene for awhile now.
I’ve always liked his potential and hoped he would’ve gotten SU further.
His wingspan is only about 6’11’’ but he has a decent standing reach at 9’0’’. I take these measurements much more into account than his height with or without shoes. Does need to get stronger.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
by kenntoe on
Jun 12, 2008 5:17 PM PDT
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bench press
is a terrible indicator of NBA stregth. The bench rewards guys with short arms and limited reach, while we all know NBA game play rewards the opposite. I’m not saying it shouldnt be a concern at all, and I’m not a Greene fan as he seems to simply replicate what we already have, but certainly dont let it affect your opinion of him too much.
by sam23 on
Jun 12, 2008 11:17 PM PDT
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Greene shooting machine
I like greene also. but if the choice came down to either him or joe alexander. then I’d take joe. ..even tho he’s about 2” shorter and white. ..you know the ratio between blacks and whites in the league is about 3:1. so, the probability that joe will be successful in the nba is a lot lower than greene’s is.. just joking :) on the serious side.. joe has a good shooting touch also, maybe not as deep a range as greene. and has a good work ethic, more athletic, and pretty good hops. not to mention tough D. overall, the best fit compatibility-wise (IMO, of course)
by oldskool on
Jun 13, 2008 2:51 AM PDT
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+1
Alexander proves that white men can jump.
Even though he was born and raised in China.
by misterjennings on
Jun 13, 2008 3:56 PM PDT
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Thoughts
I think at 14, I’d take Brandon Rush. I’m not too excited about any of the big men projected to be around. Might as well take a guy who is already an excellent defender and good 3 point shooter. Our perimeter D was awful towards the end of the year last year, so if we get a guy who can step in for 10-20 minutes a night on D so Baron, Monta or Jax can take a break. But if Westrbook falls to 14, I think you take him.
All the big men in that mid-first round range seem to be underwhelming. They could either go in the mid-teens to mid-twenties. They seem to be either projects or guys with character/motor issues. Take the best player who can step in and produce. Then if we need to get a big man, work the phones for a trade. There’s no big man in the draft at 14 who’s going to step in produce this year.
by Fantasy Junkie on Jun 12, 2008 4:23 PM PDT 0 recs
little scared of Rush
I mentioned earlier that he needs work on his ballhandling. Also I’m a little wary of him because of his family history. His older brothers JaRon and Kareem are pretty much the same size (wikipedia lists all of them as 6’6”/210-215) with very similar game, and neither one did much in the NBA. He’s also a little overaged (at 22) so NBAdraft.net raises the question on whether he’s reached his ceiling.
by Hac Man on
Jun 12, 2008 4:47 PM PDT
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good point
at 14 it looks like all the bigs will be more of a project than NBA ready, Rush may or may not be a bust, and we really can’t get too excited about anyone 6’9” and 200 lbs making a big impact. Best player available only option.
by shootda3 on
Jun 12, 2008 9:24 PM PDT
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He is older...
But that’s the crux of why he’s different than his brothers. He saw what they did and went through and seems to have decided to stay in school, earn his degree, etc. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was successful in the NBA. But it’ll all depend on who’s still available at 14.
by Dubs fan in Boston on
Jun 13, 2008 7:24 AM PDT
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+1
I’m as big a fan of speculating and rumors as anyone, but its tough with such a deep draft with so much instability towards the top. We cant really say who should be drafted because its nearly impossible to tell who will still be left this year. Outside of Rose, Beasley, Bayless, Mayo and Lopez, I think just about anyone has a shot of being there at 14.
by sam23 on
Jun 13, 2008 9:55 AM PDT
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Age
I’m not too worried about age – he’s still just 22 – it’s not like he’s 27. Al Thornton last year was 22 or 23 coming out of the draft and he turned out nicely. Age seems somewhat overrated. Yes it’s important that the prospect is young but I’ll take a more polished 22 year old over a 20 year old project.
I’m not sure if he’s a hard worker, but if he is, he can work on his handle. He’ll probably never be great but he can work on it to get better. If he’s not a hard worker then we shouldn’t be drafting him anyways. Every player at 14 is going to have some flaw, for him it’s his handles.
by Fantasy Junkie on
Jun 17, 2008 1:05 PM PDT
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It all depends on your window of opportunity
If it’s now, the 22 YO might fit in and be productive right away.
If it’s a few years off, the 20 YO will have some time to blossom and will be ready to contribute when the time comes and will be around for a few extra years.
As to the Warriors situation right now, the window is 1-2 years off with BD. If BD goes, things will obviously change.
by Dubs fan in Boston on
Jun 18, 2008 7:02 AM PDT
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Okay
I guess age is hard to measure.
The only case where I take similar ages into account is if I have similar producing players. In that case I’d always take the younger guy of course.
In all other cases, I’m looking at talent and how that talent projects in its prime. So if I project a 22 year old to be a better player than a 20 year old when they both hit their primes, I take the 22 year old. And the opposite is true also.
As you say, taking window of opportunity is important as well.
I guess this is my long winded way of saying, don’t let age be a deterrent to drafting the better player. These young guys don’t always develop according to some logarithmic (hopefully exponential) graph.
by Fantasy Junkie on
Jun 18, 2008 5:38 PM PDT
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22 v. 20
If I project a 22 year old to be a better player than a 20 year old when they both hit their primes I take the 22 year old.
Well, clearly. If you project a player to be better in his prime, you pick him, end of sentence. But the upside of a 20 year old is higher than that of comparably skilled 22 old. Maybe not a ton higher, but enough that age should be taken in consideration, like vertical leap or wingspan. You’re always looking for value at your pick; and a lot of the great values in recent drafts — Garnett #5 1995, Kobe #13 1996, McGrady #9 1997, Biedrins #11 2004, Al Jefferson #15 2004, etc. — have been young guys who were drafted on upside.
—
That said, I’m totally down with Brandon Rush. His “value” comes in the fact that (a) his numbers were depressed by a serious ACL injury; and (b) he plays a non-premium position. We could do a lot worse at #14, I think.
Sign ^^^^ !!!
by Sleepy Freud on
Jun 18, 2008 8:04 PM PDT
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I don’t ever like to think that there are ‘too many variables’ but when it comes to age, skill, and experience, I think that the variables are such that general rules are tough to deduce. Sure, between two roughly equally skilled players, I’d want the one who is younger, figuring that he’s got a better chance of improving as he matures, but chronological age is only a proxy for physical development. Some at 22 still have filling out to do, while others have the body they’re going to have (for better or worse) at 20. Similarly experience (and experience on different levels) is not a straight linear function. 22 after four years of college probably has meant more time to develop certain skills that someone 2 years out of HS straight to NBA missed, but the younger player may be closer to his “experience” peak and won’t progress in terms of learning the league as much in the future. The older player may actually have more room to “grow” by learning the ins and outs of pro ball.
This is (perhaps in a fit of irony) my way of saying that it’s too difficult to deduce how age necessarily factors into “potential” and you have to look at the isolated case. Someone has to show some reason to believe they can play. The “he’s young and hasn’t learned the game so think of what he’ll be in a few years players” seem to have the highest washout who never learn potential. I can’t think of guys who don’t show signs of a good feel for the game ever developing one with age, though I may just be jaded by waiting for Pietrus to learn to pass to ANYONE and stop dribbling off his foot.
Sleepy, of the players you mentioned, the value in all cases took a few years to be realized. Garnett wasn’t considered the best pick of his draft for several years. Kobe did little for the Lakers in year one, and McGrady was playing for a different team than the one that drafted him by the time his true value was seen. There’s sometime something to a guy with more experience helping immediately, even if the sky’s the limit potential might not happen as often.
by jae on
Jun 18, 2008 9:03 PM PDT
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I'm not opposed to Rush
He’s always been the most highly regarded of the Rush brothers, so I dont think youll see him flop like they did. (though Kareem might make a niche for himself in Indy) He plays better D than either of them did out of college and is a little bigger. He certainly wont have the most upside of anyone at 14 but probably will have the highest floor. There really are about 5-8 guys I’d be perfectly happy with at 14, so I think the best thing to do is wait and see who falls instead of targeting any one player.
by sam23 on
Jun 12, 2008 11:21 PM PDT
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Bill Walker
I know he’s rated lower than 14 on mocks everywhere but I think teams are secretly wishing that he falls to them somewhere in the 2nd round. I think based on potential alone, he should be mentioned as a lottery pick. If Chase Budinger can be mentioned as a possible low lottery pick, then people should not sleep on Walker.
The guy has rediculous athletic ability and explosiveness and as his knees get back to 100% look for him to be even scarier as he expands his game. He could end up being the steal of the draft if he slips out of the 1st round but I think some team will swoop him up in the middle to bottom of the 1st round.
The Dubz don’t need him to be a superstar right away since they have Jax at the 3 still but Jax is getting older and already doesn’t run the floor that well. Bringing in Walker and allowing him time to develop might pay huge rewards down the line as he takes over for Jax in a couple years. Plus Walker might be able to provide some sort of spark off the bench initially.
by misterjennings on Jun 13, 2008 4:07 PM PDT 0 recs
yup
Walker can be a sleeper in this draft. Plus athletic players such as him seem like good fits for our current system of NBA-And1-semi-streetball.
I pray i never have to use a gun again...
...unless i'm at a strip club parking lot...
...and somebody tries to run me over with their car...
...But how often does that happen??
by ssmokinjoe on
Jun 13, 2008 8:00 PM PDT
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I really think that walker would benefit greatly from staying another year in college to develop his game. from the viewpoint of an nba team, by him coming into the draft this year, he’ll be under the radar and could be a steal in the second round.
by oldskool on
Jun 14, 2008 10:27 AM PDT
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Walker injured in workouts
He tore his meniscus over the weekend in a workout with 24 other players being watched by 17 teams (big OUCH!). Supposedly his “reps” (amusing, he hasn’t “officially” signed with an agent) are trying to get a draft guarantee from a team, and if he doesn’t, he’ll rehab and go back to KState.
by Hac Man on
Jun 16, 2008 11:17 AM PDT
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