Baron opts out, but what's next?

With Baron and his $17,810,000 (08-09 salary) off the books, the Dubs payroll stands at roughly $29 million.  It may seem like we have plenty of cap room to pursue who ever we want; however with Monta and Biedrins owed extensions, that is far from the truth.  Let's say Monta and Andris both decide to resign for a combined $15 million (a fair sum considering the small amount of teams with cap space to sign them), that brings the payroll to roughly $44 million. This leaves the Dubs about $14,000,000 under the 08-09 salary cap (projected to be $58 million) and $26 million below the Luxury Tax Threshold (projected to be $70 million).  Thankfully, I think there is a fair chance that Baron won't find the kind of money he wants in the free agent market and its very likely he could come back to the Warriors.  Let's face it, without Baron we would be in big trouble because Monta is not ready to be a full time pg. Assume we can sign Baron (who will have lost a great deal of leverage after not getting the deal he wanted) for about $12 million this year, bringing the payroll to $56 million, $14 million under the Luxury Tax Threshold and leaving the depth chart looking like this:

Pg: Baron

Sg: Monta, Belineli

SF: Capt. Jack, AR

PF: Al, Brandon Wright, Hendrix

C: Andris, Perovic

Assuming Cohan refuses to pay the Luxury Tax again, we would have only $14 million to sign at least 4 players (Pietrus, Kelenna, free agents, etc). This roster would look very similar to the 07-08 Warriors.

If Baron signs with another team, the Dubs would have roughly $26 million to spend. A point guard like Chris Duhon or Shaun Livingston would be a must have (sorry, Monta is NOT ready yet and may never be).  To make the playoffs this year with a weaker pg, we would definitely make another big signing like Elton Brand or Josh Smith. A point guard of this caliber may cost in the neighborhood of $5 or 6 million, leaving about $20 million to sign a big name like Brand AND fill out the roster.  Best case scenario here, we sign Duhon and Brand for a combined $20 million, leaving $6 million (and the $5.3 million mid level exception) for 3-5 spots.

Would the Dubs be better off trying to get Baron back in free agency or moving in another direction?

Sources:

http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/warriors.jsp