Hey guys,
It's been a tough few days, but honestly this short-term pain and frustration can be turned into long-term success. First of all, the Warriors were not going to be title contenders in the short term, and the likely best that they could do considering the %!*@%@^ owner is a team in that vicious 2nd/3rd tier or Western Conference teams, which is now even more brutal.
As such, it's time to lick our wounds and make a smart battle plan for how to best come at this strong for the future. Here's how I'd do it:
Rule 1: Do not waste the money (see Fisher, Derek)
That said, what makes the most sense to me for this offseason is to make two front-loaded deals, which uses the available space now, makes teams less likely to match (though one of the two is a UFA), and opens up more money in the future:
1. Andre Iguodala- A very good player who is a natural fit next to Monta and also allows the Warriors to go after either a PG or SF long term since Monta/Iggy can be a SG/SF group (my preference) or a PG/SG duo. Something like 5 years, $65m frontloaded (so 15/14/13/12/11). You can frontload, though I do not know whether the max decreases are 5% or 10% per year (that offer relies on 10%).
2. Shaun Livingston. A real boom/bust guy who ideally would be a nasty, nasty backcourt mate with Monta. He has size, vision, and horrible injury problems. 3 years frontloaded totalling around $13m ($4.4/4.3/4.2 works), and it would be fantastic to have a 4th year team option on the end of that as a protection in case he works out really well.
Other than those two (and possibly Josh Smith or Okafor, though I assume both would be matched), it'd be better not to waste cap space this offseason long-term and either move it to next summer and try to slide Al/Jax (or both) for space in the 2009 offseason or just wait them out and spend in 2010 (Bosh!)
Theoretically, that team (with Monta/Beans getting $21m base combined with 10% raises) wouldn't have cap space for 2009 without getting Jackson and Harrington off (but would be luxury-tax safe at around $64m, considering cap increases).
Then, these would be their cap commitments going into the summer of 2010:
Monta/Beans: $25.41m
Iggy/Livingston: $17.2m
B-Wright and Marco: $5,778,341
Draftees (Randolph, Hendrix, 2009 1st- I used the #10 pick for a base), 2009 2nd, 2010 1st (I used #12 pick), and 2010 2nd: $8,000,980
That totals $56,389,321, which will be reasonable considering the cap increases for two more offseasons (2010 cap will be at $64.6m if $3m increases per year, which would be average).
So that team would have 12 players on roster (assuming all the picks work out) and a little less that $10m to work with, so it could be spent on one guy, or someone like Wright and/or Marco could be used in a S+T if necessary to get a stud like Bosh.
As always, thoughtful comments/criticisms are appreciated.