Ok, while people haven't really calmed down yet (Can we steal Brand?  Throw Max money at Arenas?  Start a bidding war with Philly and ATL over Josh Smith?), I wanted to calm down a bit personally and start looking at the Warriors for the long term, because really, that seems to be the view that Mullin is taking.  Apparently from all reports, they never went desperately after Baron once he opted out and tried to throw long-term money at him (Ramasar claims they never called at all).

While its amusing to watch the Warriors try to mess up Baron's dream by throwing a big deal at Elton Brand, I honestly think that Brand will not bolt for the money.  Not with the smoke that his agent has been throwing about how Brand wants to resign for less in order to fit another star onto the roster.  Not with Brand also getting into movie production (apparently working with Baron).  Maybe the Warriors hope to get the league's attention on any sort of (*gasp*) collusion, but bottom line, Brand will re-sign.

The rumored max deal for Arenas also seems interesting.  Is he a MAX-type player?  Many people will argue that he isn't, and also doesn't make for the best backcourt fit with Ellis.  At the same time, he viewed fondly by Warriors fans.  Could this (cynically) be a bit of PR by Mullin to show that the front office isn't sitting around while their best player and leader leaves with nothing to show for it?  Washington can (and already has) top GS with their top offer, so for all we know, Mullin knew he wasn't going anywhere but threw this out to the media to say, "Hey we're trying over here."

While we will have a lot of cap room once Baron signs with the LAC, I'm going to argue that we shouldn't through big deals after any of the players currently on the market.  If you look at Chad Ford's list of top Unrestricted free agents, he has as the top 4: Elton Brand, Gilbert Arenas, Baron Davis, and Corey Maggette. No. 5? Desagana Diop.  BRRRR. . .that's a STEEP dropoff at that point.    The Restricted free agent list isn't much better and demands a higher price.

What Mullin should do (and will if he's looking to the future):

Collect pieces for the team that are either a) shorter term or b) not big contracts unless they expire soon.  One possibility, if the Sixers max out in getting Josh Smith who they covet, swoop in and see what can be done to get Andre Iguodala.  Josh Childress has also been a favorite of various GSOMers, and is someone we could get for less money.  I liked Shaun Livingston's game pre-injury, but the W's should consider just taking a flyer on him, because even if he were to get back to his former self, he had some major holes in his game.  Bottom line is that Mullin should be looking at the tier *below* the top tier and stop trying to throw all of the Warriors new cap room at 1 guy.

Monta is not the answer at PG.

As much as I love Monta's game, I don't think that he is or will become a top-flight PG.  Can he develop a 3 point shot?  Eventually.  Court vision and passing instinct are just two of those things that you either have or you don't.  Ellis will always be good for 1-2 driving and dishing assist in a game, the kind where he gets inside, and then wraps around the ball to Biedrins/Wright/Randolph for the jam, but he doesn't have the PG mentality.  Whenever Nellie entrusted him with lead guard responsibilities last season, he was very shaky and it affected his whole game.  He was prone to throwing the ball away or making careless passes that were stolen.  He was thinking too much and it showed.  If he chooses to, he can work on that, but to me that means that he doesn't have the true PG instinct that Baron/Nash/Kidd/Paul/Williams have.  He'll be passable in time, but for a run/gun team, you need a dynamic PG, not one who will just bring the ball upcourt and pass it inside.

The 2009 NBA draft

This is where (I hope) the Warriors look for their future PG.  If Ellis, Biedrins (and to a lesser extent, Bellinelli and Randolph) are their building blocks for the future, then they should be looking in next year's draft for their PG.  Current ESPN (Chad Ford) rankings has a lot of PGs that could be going in the draft next year:  Brandon Jennings, Ty Lawson, Darren Collison, and 3 "big" PGs: Nick Calathes (6-5), Ricky Rubio (6-4), and Jrue Holliday (6-4).  Yes, its way too early, but I think that the Warriors would have a great get if they could draft either Rubio or Holliday.  I have worries about Rubio from a defensive standpoint (lack of lateral quickness), but he is by all accounts an excellent passer and can definitely initiate an offense.  Holliday would basically be Russell Westbrook 2.0, which I can live with.  He should be able to match up defensively with guards that Ellis can't handle.

Top PGs in Chad Ford's Top 100 for the 2009 NBA Draft

4. Brandon Jennings (6-2, 165, Fr.)

5. Ricky Rubio (6-4, 180, Intl.)

8. Jrue Holliday (6-4, 180, Fr.)

11. Nick Calathes (6-5, 185, So.)

17. Ty Lawson (5-11, 195, Jr.)

26. Darren Collison (6-1, 165, Sr.)