Biedrins back to Europe?!

thank you thank you thank you

He’s good but he’s not overwhelmingly good at anything and he can’t create his own offense.

Well, he has been an overwhelmingly good rebounder, among the very best in the game per minute, and he was just about the very best in terms of FG% (yes, yes, dunks and putbacks, “easy shots” that somehow most big guys can’t hit nearly as well as he does, suggesting it ain’t so easy).

I’m not dissing him i think he is a very good player but the type of production that he gives us doesn’t scream 10 M plus per year.

This is probably true in the NBA market, where scoring points is the surest way to command money. It’s probably NOT true in terms of contribution to team victory totals or probability of victories. I would wager that the team with Biedrins and without Maggs wins more than if you flip this around. Points per game is a notoriously poor predictor of a player’s importance to a team’s overall record. Rebounding and FG%, even among a guy who doesn’t take many shots, seem to be more important.

There’s a disconnect between how the market operates and what is really valuable towards victories. In this way it’s similar to the situation with batting average and OBP in baseball. The latter is more important to victories, but for a long, long time the former was a better predictor of a player’s salary on the market. To some large degree, this knowledge is more widespread and the market in baseball has corrected quite a bit such that there are fewer high OBP ‘bargains’ these days. It’s not clear that this has happened yet in basketball. Still, that Maggs scores 20+ppg and Biedrins ‘cannot create his own offense’ does not at all mean that Biedrins isn’t as valuable. It more likely means that Maggs possesses skills that tend to get paid more relative to their actual value towards wins than Biedrins does.

common misconception, biedrins has a pretty decent post game, he just never gets the ball in there…...his FG% wouldnt be so high if he was missin all his post move shots

He’s good but he’s not overwhelmingly good at anything

Last year, Biedrins had the highest field-goal percentage by an NBA player in thirteen years.

If he maintains his current career FG% over a reasonably long career, he will not only hold the career record—he will smash that record.

The guy is scoring at a historically efficient rate. I don’t know why people think that’s not “overwhelmingly good”.

the type of production that he gives us doesn’t scream 10 M plus per year. if we give him something like that than we are basing it on potential.

I think the guy certainly does have the potential to get better. If his free-throw shooting continues to improve (when you watch him, you can’t understand how he ever makes one, but his rate improved significantly last year), if he starts getting the benefit of the doubt from refs more often, as often happens for young big men, if he adds a little muscle, he could grow as a player. I don’t think we’ve seen his best yet.

But what Biedrins does is already worth ten million a year. If we sign him for less, we should consider ourselves lucky.

their teeth are crooked.

Some people have different motivations.

Ever heard of a guy named Jonah Lomu? He’s a New Zealander and among the greatest rugby players ever to play the game. He’s a phenomenal athlete. In his peak playing days he stood 6-5, 260 pounds and was timed in an actual 100m at 10.89 from a pistol start. With the artificially fast claims in 40yd dashes (where reaction time in the blocks doesn’t matter and often the time represents something of a flying start) this translates to a 4.4_40. That’s defensive end size (Strahan is listed at 6-5, 255) paired with defensive back speed. Lomu ran over guys in the Rugby World cup but he was also nimble enough to cut and run around them. He had great hands and was always focused.

Though the actual dollar values are from rumor mill, apparently, the Cowboys drove the dumptruck full of money up in front of his house to try to get him to give the NFL a go. They weren’t sure what he’d do. Dominant ball carrying fullback or tight end? Mad rush outside linebacker or defensive end? He had the physical attributes to be superb all over the field. The NFL has had mixed success taking athletes from other sports and trying to convert them. Bob Hayes was successful, Renaldo Nehemiah not so much. Generally, the physical pounding of pro football is something that the speedsters don’t really like and you never know if one can take a hit. With Lomu, that wasn’t as much an issue. Certainly it’s a different game, but he was used to a punishing game, used to playing against other big, strong guys in a rough, contact sport. It was a multiple million dollar contract, more than he was making at the time since there’s just more money in Pro Football than in Rugby. (At peak, he made about 900k a year as the best rugger in the world in salary, though certainly made more in endorsements.)

He turned down the offer. Rumor was that he asked if he’d be worshipped like a God. When the Cowboys couldn’t guarantee that, he said no, since in New Zealand, he was worshipped like a God. To him that was more important than the money.

put al on the open market right now and he’ll get 6 max.

Well, let’s look at who Nellie has played at center over his career prior to Biedrins.

In Dallas, he played Dampier about 28mpg. He’s not a jump shooter. Prior to that, he’d often avoid centers or use some PF/C combo player, who usually was more of a jumpshooter like Juwan Howard or Bradley or LaFrenz. He often eschewed the center for stretches of the game, much as he’s done here, using Nowitzski in the role of rebounder since he can rebound like a center. I’d call that a mixed bag, not indicative of any completely fixed strategy that describes Nelson.

In his previous stint in GS, he was almost always without a real center. He finished with Webber in that role. Webber had a nice jumper, but as a rookie, he clashed with Nelson because he saw himself as more of a forward and wanted to get away from the basket. It was also Webber’s second most efficient shooting year of his career. Before Webber came aboard, he made due with center-less lineups or mixed in some combo PF/C types. He used Gatling (a guy with a jumpshot) and Alexander (a guy with bulk) and Tyrone Hill (a thin guy with little offense but a good rebounder) to mixed results. He lamented the lack of a “true center” and traded for Alton Lister, a guy who was supposed to be the rebounder, who scored reasonably efficiently, but wasn’t really much of a jumpshooter.

In Milwaukee, he had Jack Sikma, very much a jumpshooting center for a year. Before that, he had Lister (who impressed him enough to trade for), once again never renowned for his offense. Before that he had Lanier at the tail end of his career. Lanier did have a nice jumper. Lanier is also in the HOF.

I think it might be telling that in his partial season in NY, he clashed with Ewing, a center whose jumper could kill the opponent, in part because he wanted him to share more scoring responsibilities. That’s an oversimplification, but it’s a curiosity.

I think the above indicates that there’s not a typical “Nellie Ball” center. He’s a good coach, sometimes less effective than I think he could be, but very, very good. And much of his success is from seeing what he’s got and figuring out how to use it to his advantage. It hasn’t been a cookie cutter career where he does the same thing everywhere he goes (save winning) that defines a singular style that requires a fixed type of player. I think people are way too hung up on seeing a couple of years of 3 point bombing, something that’s been outside of the norm of his career and have assumed that this is exactly what he wants in all circumstances.

This is not about ditching Biedrins. This is about getting Biedrins to improve, and not paying him unless he’s shown that improvement.

The stat that most shows a coach’s trust in a player is MPG, which was 27 last year. Being our only true center in the lineup, that lack of playtime shows a huge lack in confidence.

Why does Nellie lack confidence in Biedrins? First, let’s clarify. It’s not that anyone is denying Biedrins’s efficiency in his limited playing time. But for him to get more playing time, he either needs to become a stronger offensive or defensive option, thereby making it impossible for Nellie to bench him. My point on adding a J is to address the former, but it doesnt have to be just a J. I just think that it would be easiest for him to include a jumper if he cannot add weight, because the other option, a post up game, requires either some heft or a fadeaway. And my point about weight is to address his defensive liabilities. Yes, he’s a great team defender but he can’t shut down any post players because he cannot hold his ground. THis is why we had TMNT gaurding players like Yao.

But you and JAE seem to keep missing my point every time i bring it up. IF Andris does not improve his game any further and stays the way he is, it’s fine. He’s a great player in our system and we should keep him. But he shouldn’t get more than 9 a year if he can’t even crack 30 minutes per. And we shouldnt be satisfied with a player whose offense consists of putbacks and behind the head layups, especially if we’re gonna build the team around him.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/12/08/SPGBGMS1A41.DTL

Biedrins wanted to play for the Warriors…hopefully he still does.

Funny that we were worried Philly might take him at 9, but we were relieved that instead they took Iguodola.

I computed them myself. I downloaded the complete 0708 NBA play by play line by line and found every instance of Biedrins shooting with a Davis assist. I’d already written the code to find other such instances for some other problems I’m looking at, including whether or not the conventional wisdom that Biedrins and Wright clash was true, or just something that people had as conjecture.

that’s a more difficult query to run, but a missed shot is a missed shot. If the shot goes in, then it doesn’t matter that Biedrins didn’t get the board and putback. But I really doubt that Andris had some special affinity for a Davis miss over, say, a Jackson miss or a Harrington miss, both of which, based on history, we can expect to continue.