GS/MN/ATL Josh Smith Trade Rumor
I'd like to start off with a disclaimer that this is a completely unvarified rumor.
Over at Twolvesblog.com there is a rumor that was either started or seen somewhere else about a 3-way trade involving your Warriors, the Wolves, and Atlanta. Apparently the wolves are involved because we have the 1st round picks to complete the deal.
The details go a little something like this (with some speculation as to how it would fit):
Wolves give:
Rashad McCants (to GS) Rodney Carney (to GS) 2009 1st round pick(s) (to ATL)(we have Miami's, Boston's, and Utah's), and possibly a $1.4 million TPE.
GS gives:
Brandan Wright (to MN) Marco Belinelli (to MN) Al Harrington (to ATL)
ATL gives:
Josh Smith (sign-and-trade to GS)
Josh Smith wasn't specifically named in the rumor, but he's the only player on Atlanta's roster that makes sense for a trade like this. It makes sense that they would do this, seeing as how Josh Smith and Mike Woodson don't like each either and they're probably giving him lowball offers. This way they get something in return if he is indeed refusing to re-sign with them longterm rather than having him walk as an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.
I like this trade from a wolves perspective, what do you guys think about it?
Also have you heard anything about this rumor?
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
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b4 i wouldnt want to involve bellinelli...
but since we resigned buike it wouldnt be a bad idea if it came true but would we be able to sign andris? i doubt it! In fact i doubt this will even happen!!!
by hyphy cowboy on Jul 26, 2008 10:02 PM PDT 0 recs
keep bellinelli
I’d rather trade buike, wright and harrington…and even throw in correy maggette.
bellinelli has displayed very good court vision in summer leagues.
I think our two biggest trade commodities are wright and harrington.
by balleerj on
Jul 28, 2008 2:24 AM PDT
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What?
no way keep belinelli! he is not going to pan out. can’t defend! did you see him play against quincy douby? absolutely no contest. Bel is the not the pure shooter we all cracked him up to be. he’ll never make it in a warriors uni.
Born a Warrior, Die a Warrior... That's the way life should be!
by GSWarriors4life on
Jul 28, 2008 11:24 PM PDT
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+1 agree
i’d love to see belinelli succeed as a warrior, but i don’t understand why everyone thinks he is the second coming of anything. a lot of people have compared him to manu ginobili, i guess because they are both foreign players, but i don’t see anything in his game so far that would lead to this comparison/assumption. Ginobili is much better at getting to the rim and finishing and belinielli right now is just an average spot up shooter. unless belinelli somehow shows MUCH MUCH more this year, i would much rather have azubuike than belinelli on the team if it came down to that.
by gogoldenbears on
Jul 29, 2008 7:39 AM PDT
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The reason he's compared to Manu
Is because he sorta looks like Manu and both are Italian (Manu is 100% Italian but born n’ raised in Argentina).
Otherwise, one is the white Juan Dixon and either goes 1 for 8 or 6 for 9, and one is a slashing/playmaking/stealing/crafty allround great player. Guess which is which!
Bellinelli was not even good in the Euroleague. He has never ever shot well. It won’t start all of the sudden and he also suddenly won’t become a good athlete who can guard other guards. I’m sad to say he is not very good except for the odd game where he makes everything he puts up. Over time, he’s still just shooting high 30’s/low 40’s, even with the occassional 8 for 11 “explosion”.
Unless it was because you knew you had to wait a year, I’m not sure why the Dubs took Marco over Rudy Fernandez. Both played in strong Euro leagues, both young, one had much better numbers and a game that more readily translates to the NBA. Both will struggle defensively, but Rudy’s game is more like Manu… he just don’t look like Manu.
Mortimer
by Mortimer on
Jul 29, 2008 3:56 PM PDT
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uh manu is argentinian!!! Go watch the Olympics!
by hyphy cowboy on
Aug 4, 2008 5:40 AM PDT
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Yeeeaaaaaaaaahhhhhhh
He was born in Argentina, yes, but his family (and thus where he is from and his bloodline and whatnot) is 100% Italian, just like Marco or Bargnani.
Most of the Argentinian players are about one generation removed from Europe and have 100% Europe blood, unlike white-American players who are mostly (if not all) Euro-mutts with a bunch of different genetical things making them up.
Nocioni, Herrmann, Manu, all 100% European who happened to live or be born in Argentina. They aren’t Italian + Native Argentinian, for example.
I said as much in my post so I’m not sure why you didn’t see it. Manu was born in Argentina but he is 100% Italian.
Mortimer
by Mortimer on
Aug 5, 2008 6:04 PM PDT
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i would do
this trade in a heartbeat. givin up belinelli, wright, and harrington in exchange for: mccants, carney, and josh smith. wed be an instant playoff team
by gorillas on Jul 26, 2008 10:05 PM PDT 0 recs
+1
If the Wolves and the Hawks were stupid enough to agree to that kind of trade, you take it and RUN! This would be an absolute fleecing along the lines of, but not as bad as, the Pau Gasol deal that the Lakers got. There is no way it’s going to happen though but we’re Warriors fans… We can dream can’t we?
by NBA on
Jul 28, 2008 9:04 AM PDT
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My mistake
I should have read all the comments before posting my own. It looks like the rumored trade would send McCants and Carney to ATL and not GSW making this a much more reasonable trade. ATL would still have to be pretty desperate to dump Josh Smith to make this trade though. I have a bit of a man crush for Josh Smith so I would love to see him come to the Warriors but I don’t see this trade happening but I pray that it does.
by NBA on
Jul 28, 2008 9:12 AM PDT
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wow
Basically, Atlanta gives up Josh Smith for Al Harrington and 4 first round picks? The Hawks are a team on the upswing and should be looking to add talent now instead of rebuilding through the draft later.
We’d come away as absolute thieves in this trade as well. In my opinion, Brandan Wright’s upper ceiling is Josh Smith, we’d just be getting the more developed product right now. Belinelli hasn’t even proven that he belongs in the NBA, or even the Summer League for that matter. Harrington doesn’t appear to be in our long-term plans either. McCants and Carney are solid cheap players to have as well.
by YaHeard on Jul 26, 2008 10:08 PM PDT 0 recs
ATL
The only way ATL agrees to a trade like this is if Josh Smith demands a trade. In that case, they’d be getting more lucrative offers from teams around the league. Harrington and draft picks probably wouldn’t be enough.
by YaHeard on
Jul 26, 2008 10:10 PM PDT
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It wouldn't 4 1st round picks...
the way it sounded is that it would either our highest 1st round pick which isn’t our own (most likely Miami’s) or the 2 lowest 1st round picks (most likely Utah and Boston’s)
by roundhouse on
Jul 26, 2008 10:27 PM PDT
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Is there even a link for this? I would love it if it happens but its doubtful.
by clauser6422 on
Jul 27, 2008 12:43 AM PDT
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This would be laughably good for the Warriors, to the point where I have trouble taking it seriously. Not even the Hawks are this foolish.
by onlxn on Jul 26, 2008 10:50 PM PDT 0 recs
From the IGN boards, posted by an entity named Master.Amino:
Multiple sources on both Golden State’s and Minnesota’s side have reported that a potential 3 way deal is taking shape.Atlanta receives: Al Harrington, Marco Belinelli, Rashad McCants(or)Rodney Carney, 1st round pick
Golden State Receives: Josh Smith
Minnesota receives: Brandan WrightIn another variation of the deal, Belinelli would be sent to Minnesota instead of Atlanta. So this is basically the premise of what the potential deal could look like.
It’s also worth mentioning that one of the sources who reported this is a current UNC player and a good friend of Brandan Wright.
Ha, that last part really makes this sound even faker. Obviously we would love every inch of this trade, but I see no reason why Atlanta would do it, and I don’t like it that much for Minny, either. I’m guessing this “rumor” quietly disappears in the next twelve hours.
by onlxn on
Jul 26, 2008 11:01 PM PDT
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You never know...
Both Wright and Shaddy went to UNC. Also Shaddy is in North Carolina right now doing a basketball camp.
by roundhouse on
Jul 26, 2008 11:29 PM PDT
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oh okay
This proposed deal actually does make more sense. McCants has established himself as a solid (15ppg in just 26mpg) and efficient (45% fg and 40% 3pt) scorer and would give the Hawks some much needed depth and instant scoring off the bench. Carney is young, athletic, exciting and still has a bit upside to him. The media has done a great job hyping up Marco Belinelli for us so maybe Atlanta sees something in him that’s simply not there. (38% fg in 08 Summer League, 38% fg in NBA last season, a modest 43% career fg in Europe)
Minnesota trades small for big. Telfair, Foye, Wright, Love, and Jefferson look like a promising young team.. on paper.
Maybe I’m speculating too much, but maybe this is why Biedrins’ signing isn’t done yet. Maybe the Warriors need to wait and see what kind of contract Josh Smith comes with so that we know exactly how much we can give to Biedrins without going into the luxury tax.
But maybe I’m just hoping and dreaming too much. Josh Smith would probably land us back in the playoffs and in the Nuggets’ vacated spot. A Josh Smith / Andris Biedrins / Ronny Turiaf frontcourt would probably give us the most nastiest, most athletic shotblocking team in the league, even without a true 7’ center. This trade needs to happen.
by YaHeard on
Jul 27, 2008 12:17 AM PDT
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WHY NOT FOR ATL
they get a sg, sf and a pf along with a first round pick. and if josh smith doesnt want to be there anymore, there’s no reason for bringing him back. and for minny, they dont really lose anything but one or two guys off the bench in exchange for bwright. he’ll fit in nicely in that pf and center rotation with jefferson and love. it works out for everyone. do it do it do it
by ADOBO on
Jul 27, 2008 1:18 AM PDT
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i don't see this trade happening
because we have a pretty good team with biedrins back on our team for good. i like our team the way it is now. i can’t wait to see captain jack as a shooting guard! hopefully him, ellis, and maggette can keep their scoring up at around 20 ppg each. this would be pretty good in helping us be the top scoring team again!
by ellis8 on
Jul 27, 2008 4:21 PM PDT
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Jeez this is a horrible trade for the warriors
Why would the dubs do this? Belinelli is so good. he’s going to be an awesome player. lights out. so is wright! I can’t believe the warriors would even consider trading these guys… you guys think this will fool the wolves and hawks into actually making the trade… probably not. Great trade. I’m all for it.
Born a Warrior, Die a Warrior... That's the way life should be!
by GSWarriors4life on Jul 26, 2008 10:58 PM PDT 0 recs
brandan wright is trash…even nellie hates his big eared goofy ass….bellinelli only shows up in the summer…and harrington is blehhhhh…. Josh Smith>Wright McCants>Bellinelli Carney>Harrington
by newbtoob on
Jul 26, 2008 11:10 PM PDT
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I agree Bellinelli sucks
but Wright isn’t trash by any stretch. He’s gonna be pretty damn good someday. And apparently the rest of the NBA thinks so too because he’s the first name every team that wants to trade with us brings up.
by boonitez on
Jul 29, 2008 1:09 PM PDT
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even a Harrington fan
has to admit Josh Smith is better and younger than Al, plus we UNLOAD Marco. The loss could be BWright, not Marco
by hardcore on
Jul 27, 2008 12:21 AM PDT
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He/she is foolin' around
He or she is hyping up Marco and Wright in case the Hawks or Wolves are reading this post, so they think they are actually getting good players.
This trade is too good to be true. I think they’d get a new coach before moving Smith for this sorta’ deal.
I’m sorry :-(
Would be awesome for the Dubs if it ‘tis so, of course. Josh Smith would be a perfect PF for Nelly-Ball! O’ course, Nelly would play him at center, just to mess with everyone even more.
Mortimer
by Mortimer on
Jul 27, 2008 4:43 AM PDT
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so
you got that at 4am but i missed it at midnight
sigh
by hardcore on
Jul 27, 2008 7:03 AM PDT
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But you got it on the rebound at 7 am ;-)
Sign ^^^^ !!
by Sleepy Freud on
Jul 27, 2008 7:38 AM PDT
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ok...
i’m sure kevin mchale is reading GSOM as his source of information when coming to his basketball decisions….
I hear he wasn’t sold on trading Garnett until he read here on GSOM that Al Jefferson was actually pretty good…
by wizard5ive on
Jul 28, 2008 7:47 AM PDT
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Josh Smith is basically the player we hope BWright will be in a few years. Instead of waiting for BWright to develop into that player, which may never happen in the first place, we get that player now in Josh Smith.
by jakeaco on
Jul 28, 2008 10:38 AM PDT
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brandan wright and my thoughts on the trade
brandan is probably one of my favorite players left on the warriors after monta. i don’t know why, but i liked him coming out of high school and at UNC. i guess it was the chris bosh comparison and the length and athleticism. i’m still a huge fan, but i’m more and more scared that he will be a bust.
he hasn’t dominated the summer league like all our other young players have (belinelli, randolph, azubuike, even cj watson). granted this doesn’t translate to NBA success at all, but if he can’t dominate on a lower level, how can he do it at the highest level. also he has claimed that he was trying to be a role player on the summer league team—but for some reason i don’t quite buy that.
another thing is his game. it is so incredibly unique that i can’t tell if he will become a good player or not. honestly i’ve never seen a player like him. he reminds me of a strange combination of chris bosh, josh smith and antawn jamison. hes got jamison’s finesse moves around the basket, but not his outside game yet. hes got josh smith’s defensive ability/potential but not as polish (as both defender and scorer). hes got bosh’s athletic ability and body type (though bosh is a bit thicker) with his potential, but doesn’t have his post game.
one thing that wright lacks is a FIRE that i’ve seen in almost all good NBA players that shows they want something—they want to get to the rim, they want to lock down someone on defense or they want to be a great player in general. bwright seems mellow all the time, which is cool, but even mellow players in the league have this intensity they have on the court that i dont see in wright. maybe its just that goofy look on his face all the time. i really think he has the potential to develop into a truly unique player, but the question is will he and how long will it take? (and will it be with the warriors?)
basically, this is a LONG way of saying, i like bwright and would be hesitant to include him in a trade. however, if we could get josh smith for him, i would have to strongly consider it. the problem is that even though wright and belinelli (though i am much more hesitant about belinellis potential in the NBA) have a huge range of how they will turn out (bust to superstar), we pretty know what kind of player josh smith will be. he is going to be a great NBA player—almost at the star level, but not quite. pretty much in a league with players like maggette, rashard lewis, luol deng, etc. players that are very good, but imo on the superstar or even the top-tier star level. we already have so many players like that in maggette, biedrins, sjax, and maybe even monta (depending on how he progresses he could be a top-tier star or superstar) and we don’t need to spend another 12mil+ on this type of player. we have wright and belinelli locked up for 3 more years at a very inexpensive price with unknown potential. they could potentially the star that we are looking for, which is why i’m hesitant to make this trade.
don’t get me wrong, josh smith is a very good player and i would love to have him here. the only problem is that i think we need that top-tier star or superstar in order to be successful in the western conference. we’ve had these kind of teams with jamison/hughes/arenas/jrich (not at the same time but in terms of star power) and even recently with sjax/harrington/baron (who is a top-tier star) with a not-as-developed-yet monta/biedrins and of all those teams, we have only gotten as far as the 2nd round of the playoffs. if we want more, we need to reach for higher than josh smith—whether that is in the 2009 & 2010 FA class or hoping that wright, randolph, azubuike, belinelli, etc. develop into those players.
honestly, this is a great trade on paper and at this moment with what we know about wright and belinelli, but i am still more hesitant than most about making this deal. it is the kind we could look back on in the future and wish we hadn’t of done it (because of the future cap situation of 4 10mil+ players for 5+ years and of what belinelli, and to a greater extent, wright could become)
and LOL if this trade was started by a current UNC player. this “friend” of bwright wants to send him to freezing minnesota to fight for minutes with other very young SF and PFs? still, its a pretty solid trade idea though. anyone know what the MINNY and ATL boards think of it?
by gogoldenbears on
Jul 29, 2008 8:23 AM PDT
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this may be the best the hawks could get
they get potential, and expiring contract and a 1st rd pick for a player who may otherwise sign a one-year deal and leave them for nothing in return. It is lopsided in terms of talent, but so was the camby trade. the logistics of it kinda make sense, and I could see why this is a potential trade.
by dancingchiapet on Jul 26, 2008 11:13 PM PDT 0 recs
also
I see minnesota wanting bellinelli, they need back court players to compliment their solid PF/C combo in Love/ Jefferson
by dancingchiapet on
Jul 26, 2008 11:14 PM PDT
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i guess the rumors of smith's unhappiness with the coach held more weight than expected.
knowing the hawks, they’ll probably have another ownership battle if the trade goes through.
by dso on
Jul 27, 2008 12:03 AM PDT
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Sorry, doesn't make sense
Why would the Warriors give up 3 players for one? Harrington, Wright, and Belinelli for Josh Smith. Nah, I don’t think so. Plus, Wright may end up being better than Josh Smith in a few years, so lets just all calm down a little bit.
by warriordrp on Jul 26, 2008 11:30 PM PDT 0 recs
Josh Smith is young
Harringtons getting old, kind of expenseive. Wright has much to prove. Josh Smith can come in, and give us good min. It also might be best to get rid of some players.
by stevenro59 on
Jul 26, 2008 11:37 PM PDT
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Wright MAY end up being better than Josh Smith...
but I seriously doubt it. Smith is more athletic, just as long but less lanky, and has a more solid jumper. Belinelli still can’t defend and Harrington doesn’t play like a true PF.
Smith would give us that defense in the middle that we’ve never had and keep us athletic. It sounds like a dream trade for us but sounds too far fetched to become a reality.
by Captain Jack on
Jul 26, 2008 11:51 PM PDT
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ACTUALLY..
According to the rumor above.. we’d ALSO be receiving Rashad McCants AND Rodney Carney in return.
by mont8ellis on
Jul 26, 2008 11:54 PM PDT
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they could be
saving cash in the long run too. i think its safe to unload belinelli now because they found a good player in that morrow kid. you never know, there might be more transactions after this goes down
by ADOBO on
Jul 27, 2008 1:22 AM PDT
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Josh Smith is the best player
In this trade scenario, the Dubs are getting the best player. That makes you the winner.
Josh Smith’s game fits the Warriors and Nelly Ball perfectly RIGHT NOW—maybe MAYBE maybe Brandon Wright could fit it as well, MAYBE. No one knows if he can fit Nelly Ball, or if he is even a future starter yet. He could be great, maybe an allstar, but Josh Smith is FOR SURE that sort of player.
It would be an accomplishment if Wright ever became as good as Josh Smith. He could, but it’s a big uphill battle to get there.
Bellinelli is a really bad player, even in Europe. You guys been wanting to trade Harrington ever since you got him. This would be a steal of a deal for Smith.
That’s why it won’t like happen.
Mortimer
by Mortimer on
Jul 27, 2008 4:46 AM PDT
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I don't agree(just not so soon)
that Bellinelli is a really bad player because we didn’t see him play that much to make this kind od a harsh statement. and I think you would agree that we have seen faaaaaaaaaaar more nonsense/type of trades in the NBA.
by buky on
Jul 27, 2008 6:01 AM PDT
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Assuming we get Josh Smith...
via sign and trade, how much money would he receive? I would think somewhere between 9-11 mil a year.. If that’s the case, and Josh Smith is the only player coming back to the Warriors in the trade, that would free up a bit over 2 million in cap space. I know nothing of cap rules, but if we free up 2 mil in this deal, and get Josh Smith, wouldn’t that allow the W’s to make a better offer to Andris?
by JakeGittes on Jul 26, 2008 11:52 PM PDT 0 recs
Under salary cap rules
The Warriors own Andris’ “Bird Rights”. They can offer him anything up to the max, even if they are over the salary cap.
If they are still under the cap in a sign n’ trade scenario for Smith (assuming that is true), then you could re-sign Andris for 10 million and not be in luxury tax zone yet.
If Smith is only getting 9 or 11 million, the Hawks should keep him. That’s a bargain for what he is likely to become. It’d be easier to fire the coach, who isn’t known to be that good of a coach anyways, than to trade their (potentially) best player for spare parts.
Mortimer
by Mortimer on
Jul 27, 2008 4:49 AM PDT
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What the Hawks "should" do
doesn’t really matter, because they’re the Atlanta Hawks. Well I take that back, it does matter, in the sense that whatever it is that they should do they will likely end up doing the opposite.
It's almost like the Warriors have 6 guys out there... they always have a guy open! - Jon Barry commentating game 3 last year
by gsw4life on
Jul 27, 2008 8:31 AM PDT
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if you don't like this trade from a warriors' perspective
you’re a fool.
let other teams figure out if beli and wright are busts or not. Even if they turn out to be great, i’d rather have a great player that’s a known commodity than two unknowns that have shown nothing in their first year.
even if wright were to reach his potential, i don’t think he’d become a better player than josh smith.and yeah, josh smith isnt the prototype 4, but he’d be great for nellie ball and he’d play great help defense with his 2+ blocks a game.
we lose a lil bit in interior heft with harrington gone and we lose some future potential, but we get a great nellieball 4 who’s explosive on defense. do it do it.
by dso on Jul 26, 2008 11:55 PM PDT 0 recs
I also
Find it sad that Al Harrington gets another potentially horrific stint in the dirty south…
by mont8ellis on Jul 26, 2008 11:55 PM PDT 0 recs
rofl that's a good point. why would they want harrington again?
probably jsut for his expiring contract. poor al.
by dso on
Jul 26, 2008 11:56 PM PDT
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true haha
but he did have his best years with them
by gogoldenbears on
Jul 29, 2008 8:25 AM PDT
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Money doesn't work
I suspect that this is total BS. Sign and Trades with Smith are going to be ridiculously difficult. While he may want to go somewhere else, the problem is that because of his cap hold and the holds on min salaries to get ATL up to a 12 man roster, they’re currently over the cap. As such, any contract in the neighborhood that Smith would agree to would immediately be a BYC issue.
This means that for purposes of matching salaries, ATL would count half of whatever Smith signed for. Now the max that he could sign for is $14.67 mil. If he did this, ATL could take back $9.27mil in salary. That’s not enough to take on the players listed. It’s not enough to combine Harrington with any other player. And since it’s real unlikely that someone is going to give Smith a max deal, the amount they’d be able to take back would be far less.
There may be a way around this if ATL can slightly downsize their payroll to get under the cap so BYC doesn’t matter, but as it stands, the only way to get things to work is to involve Memphis in some way, but I don’t think that this rumor has legs.
And enough players seem to be totally taken by surprise when they’re traded that I don’t really put too much stock in Brandan’s good friend having some sort of insider knowledge. I wouldn’t necessarily believe that Brandan would have any knowledge of a potential deal still in the negotiation stages.
by jae on Jul 27, 2008 12:06 AM PDT 1 recs
once again, jae's cold sense of reality
slaps away a happy, but impossible dream.
thx for killing JD/Coke buzz.
by dso on
Jul 27, 2008 12:20 AM PDT
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But...
if GS were dumb enough to give Josh Smith max money, then as jae stated they could take back $9.27 mil back in salary. Harrington makes roughly $9.23 mil…
Also if this is even true, it’s still in the development stage. If Speedy Claxton were involved it would open up all kinds of possibilities as to who goes where.
by roundhouse on
Jul 27, 2008 12:23 AM PDT
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If we were dumb enough to toss max money at Smith (a good, but not great player who hasn’t really improved that much since he got to the league), we’d need to figure out a way to make it fit under the cap. Ignoring issues about the tax and Biedrins, we’d still need to send out ~$11.7mil to fit in a max salary coming in (BYC only works one way—we have to count the actual salary). So while ATL could only take back Harrington (and none of the other players mentioned) we’d need to send something else out to make space for Smith.
Really, getting the numbers to work is tough.
by jae on
Jul 27, 2008 12:38 AM PDT
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with all this going down
are we going to be able to sing biedrins?
by ADOBO on
Jul 27, 2008 1:26 AM PDT
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Josh Smith and the MAX $$$
If I were the Warriors, I’d be all for giving Josh Smith that amount of money to get it done. Couldn’t they frontload the contract? So it could go something like 14 / 13 / 12 / 11 / 10 . Five years and 60mil for Josh Smith isn’t bad at all considering what we just gave Monta. The $9.28mil that ATL could take back is enough for Harrington and picks. Maybe the rest of the deal can be worked out in separate trades?
When there’s a will, there’s a way!
by YaHeard on
Jul 27, 2008 12:34 AM PDT
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See above. We need to send out more than that to make room for the (totally unwarranted and grossly out of balance with the level of performance he brings) max salary for Smith.
Where there’s a cap and a collective bargaining agreement, a will rarely has a fighting chance.
by jae on
Jul 27, 2008 12:41 AM PDT
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Smith's contract
It actually wouldn’t be the max salary. I’m guessing his max contract would go along the lines of 5yrs/70mil at $14mil/yr, correct?
Maybe ATL can get another one of their players involved, someone expendable like Claxton or Salim Stoudamire.
ATL:
gets Harrington (9.2)
gets McCants (2.6)
gets Belinelli (1.4)
sends Smith (9.2)
sends Claxton (5.8)
GSW:
gets Smith (14.7)
sends Harrington (9.2)
sends Belinelli (1.4)
sends Wright (2.5)
MIN:
gets Wright (2.5)
gets Claxton (5.8)
sends McCants (2.6)
... and then I’m stuck.. =(
by YaHeard on
Jul 27, 2008 12:54 AM PDT
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Actually, max contract starts at 14mil a year and can escalate upwards. He’s not worth 14mil a year though. I don’t think he ever will be. He’s a good player, certainly. Much better than Harrington. But his contribution isn’t worth the max now (not close) and it doens’t really look like he’s improved that much since he got to the league. He’d help us, but not $14mil worth.
Our end can make the trade work fine. The problem is that for practical purposes ATL has to torture the math in a way such that what they take in is smaller than what’s going out. They can’t take on much, but to take on a raise for Smith, any other team has to give up a bunch.
That trade above works for GSW, but doesn’t work for the other two teams with cap rules.
by jae on
Jul 27, 2008 10:44 AM PDT
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understanding the contract
Ok so if his max contract starts at 14 and can escalate, it’d be something like 14/15/16/17/18 or 5yrs/80mil. Yeah I definitely don’t think he’s worth $16mil/yr.
What about my other idea? Couldn’t the contract start at 14 but be frontloaded? 14/13/12/11/10 in the ballpark of 5yrs/60mil? That’s only $12mil/yr and it starts at $14m.
This is near a Monta-Ellis-sized contract, but it’s just frontloaded. I think it would be hard to argue that Josh Smith isn’t worth more than Monta Ellis, considering he rebounds and plays defense too.
What about another option for Smith’s contract that goes 16/15/14/13/12 at 5yrs/70mil? Is that even possible? I’ll admit that’s a bit of a reach, Josh Smith at $14mil/yr is pushing it. But if we unload, say, Perovic’s contract to MIN and MIN sends ATL Carney, and ATL gets more talent in return.
by YaHeard on
Jul 27, 2008 11:12 AM PDT
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The contract could be front loaded, but that doesn’t in any way shape or form make it easier to make the trade legal under the cap rules. (I dont think Smith is worth 12mil a year, but that’s a different issue.) Smith’s contract CAN’T start at $16mil a year. That’s over the max allowed for a player with his number of years in the league. HIs max starting salary (starting, not average) cannot be more than $14.7mil. That’s the best case scenario for ATL in sign-and-trade, but it’s a) terrible for any team trading for him and b) still not easy to make things fit with the cap.
Here’s the issue: BYC exists to prevent teams from giving a guy a big raise in order to trade him and get back more salary as a means of getting around the cap rules. ATL can’t take back as much as they send out, and in a sign and trade, they do the signing, so for cap purposes, they’re trading his new contract. They can’t take back what they’d be sending out. That’s a problem because any team over the cap that wants to take this new contract has to make it fit and as such, has to send out a bunch of salaries of their won. The front loading doesn’t make this any easier and it’s the salary in the first season, not the average that gets used for trade calculations.
ATL getting ANYONE from ANYWHERE is a problem. It doesn’t matter if it’s Minn sending them a player or us or the Harlem Globetrotters. It’s not about talent. It’s about money.
by jae on
Jul 27, 2008 11:41 AM PDT
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that's the kicker
I do think Josh Smith is well worth $12mil/yr.
If Monta Ellis is worth $11mil/yr, then Josh Smith is well worth $12mil/yr.
Thanks for the cap clarifications, btw.
by YaHeard on
Jul 27, 2008 12:56 PM PDT
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Josh Smith to me is worth about
10/yr just because of all his limitations… I really think that everyone is really just hyped up on his just because of his ability to create a highlight film every time he plays… I honestly do not think he will be that much more of a plus over the players we have now that we could potentially ship out for him… He’s a limited player and at this point he still makes very questionable basketball decisions on the court… I’ve seen too many ill advised shots and I just don’t see anymore potential growth from him other than possibly improving his consistency with his jumper… he’s a very risky player in my opinion and someone who is not a necessity to our team.
Stop crying about it alright?!?! GO MULLIN.
by jeppalepala on
Jul 27, 2008 1:50 PM PDT
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I'm not hyped on highlights, I'm hyped on stats.
I’m guessing a fair number of us play in fantasy leagues during the season, and anyone who does has probably learned that Josh Smith is a fantasy team “secret weapon”. His numbers are fantastic and diverse for a guy his size, playing his position. That’s what gets most of us excited. Hustle or not, attitude problem or not, this dude fills up the stats sheet with almost incomparable averages. From a fantasy perspective, at least, he’s an incredibly “complete” player—one of the best.
The other comparable stat freaks who come to mind are Gerald Wallace and Andrei Kirilenko. Do stats make these guys worth big $$? Well, I’d guess that the Jazz would like to renegotiate the ~$15MM that Kirilenko is getting paid this season, but I think many teams would take him for $10-11MM. Gerald’s contract pays him about $9.5MM on average. If he’s healthy, that sounds about right to me.
Just another way to think about comps, FWIW.
by b.radley on
Jul 27, 2008 2:38 PM PDT
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Kirilenko, Wallace and Smith Comparison (offensive)
Firstly, I appreciate that all three players are good defensively and have good block and steal numbers but now I am going to compare their offensive percentages.
Last season, Josh Smith shot:
45% from the field (under 40% in the playoffs)
25% from 3-point range (25-99) (17% in the playoffs)
71% from the free-throw line (84% in the playoffs)
Andre Kirilenko shot:
50% from the field (45% in the playoffs)
38% from 3-point range (44-116) (23% in the playoffs)
77% from the free-throw line (71% in the playoffs)
Gerald Wallace shot:
45% from the field
32% ( ) from 3-point range
73% from the free-throw line
Out of the three players, Josh Smith has the worst percentages and AK47 has the best with Wallace in the middle. Personally (not just because of these stats), I would not make this trade or pay over $12m for Smith and I believe he is a bit over-rated. Last season, he also averaged over three turnovers per game, which is awful for a power forward and I think we will be better off rebuilding and hanging onto Wright and Belinelli.
by zaki on
Jul 27, 2008 3:01 PM PDT
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Good points
I think the only thing you’re leaving out is that JSmooth is only 22, while Wallace is 26 and AK is 27. It’s the upside that gets people salivating. You’re probably right that he’s a little overhyped, but he is one of few humans in the world with the length and physical tools to be a franchise-type NBA forward. He hasn’t yet had a bust-out season like LeBron did in his sophomore (age 20) campaign, but he has improved gradually every season. Last season, he improved his FG and FT% numbers over the previous season, while drawing more fouls and scoring more on a per minute basis. His other numbers (reb, ast, blk, stl, to) were virtually identical to the previous season, but then except for the TOs, those numbers were damn impressive.
$12M sounds about right, in a vacuum, but I’d gladly risk going a few mil above that for a guy with Smith’s upside. If Rashard Lewis is worth even half of his 6/$120M, I can easily see throwing $15-16M at JSmooth.
Sign ^^^^ !!
by Sleepy Freud on
Jul 27, 2008 3:26 PM PDT
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I suspect that most people overbid on “upside” imagining a very steep improvement curve. I don’t think there’s a huge amount of data on what the ‘regular’ developmental curve is for a straight from high school player or if there is one, but the “he’s only 22” only goes so far. The assumption that someone will continue to get better, and appreciably so after 4 years in the league isn’t a given.
For Smith in particular, he’s been a remarkably stable player. He’s better than he was as a rookie, but not much better. If he’s got a monumental jump in his performance from that ‘talent’, he hasn’t taken it yet. If we’re banking on how he’s shown steady improvement, well, he hasn’t. His scoring increase is almost entirely about taking more shots, but he’s still not a particularly efficient weapon. His stats across the board aren’t much different now than they were when he was a rookie. His FG% went up last year, but it had dropped in years two and three.
I think his numbers were good, but not damn impressive. You could use that to argue that he’s a sure thing for what he’s shown he can do, but you could also use that to argue that what you see is what you get. After 4 years of consistent PT, his game is pretty much what it was. I’d love to have him on my team, but I wouldn’t break the bank for him in any way, shape or form. If there’s such a thing as a player to “build around” I am not convinced yet that he’s such a player.
by jae on
Jul 27, 2008 3:41 PM PDT
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those blocks are impressive
remember what AK did to us in the playoffs, striking fear into our


