in his post. The fact is that you can’t say how good GO is going to be until he plays at least half of a season, season or two (and even then is not certain) in the NBA.

I always love that one. Who are you again? Sorry, dude, call me a skeptic, but I don’t believe in self-styled Nostradamuses, least of all ones whose crystal balls are clouded by fanboyish zeal. Oden might prove the so-called “haters” wrong (by haters you presumably mean “anyone who isn’t 100% sure he’s the next Bill Russell”) or he might not. Period.

As far as Simmons’ quote: yeah, let’s be honest. Simmons is one of the savviest hoops analysts around, and he was skeptical of Oden (and ga-ga over Durant) long before the Cs struck out in the draft. It had nothing to with “bitterness.” Here’s what he wrote after the micro-fracture surgery (NB: this was after the KG trade, which obviously left no Celtics fan any reason in the world any reason to be bitter):

It’s not like this story came out of the blue. Heading into the draft, there were concerns about Oden’s long-term physical health and the fact his legs were different sizes. After his predraft physical with Portland, rumors spread that the Blazers were concerned about his knees, followed by a round of stories that they weren’t concerned at all. I believed at the time the Oden-Durant thing was so close, ANY potential physical concerns should have swung the choice to Durant; that’s one of the reasons I kept writing last June that Durant should be Portland’s pick. Everyone kept writing Oden was a sure thing; if anything, Durant was the sure thing. He has a chance to become one of the greatest offensive players ever. That’s his ceiling. We’ve never seen anyone remotely like him. Throw in his competitiveness and flair for the dramatic and I probably wrote more words arguing Durant’s case than anything I’ve ever written for ESPN.com. Even for the team Portland had, Durant was the logical pick—the Blazers could have kept Zach Randolph and played Durant at small forward instead of stupidly giving Randolph away.

There should’ve been no debate in June: Kevin Durant was the sure thing in the 2007 draft.

From Portland’s viewpoint, what worried me was Oden wasn’t entirely a basketball decision. Clearly, his gregarious personality played a huge role - the Blazers even said so - and when he hammed it up at a local parade after the draft, you could see why they picked him. After the whole Jail Blazers debacle, they spent the next few years trying to upgrade the character of their team. Hence, the curious Martell Webster pick (sixth in the ‘05 draft???), the Brandon Roy/LaMarcus Aldridge picks (and the team shying away from Ty Thomas); the Randolph trade; Steve Francis’ buyout and everything else. It’s not like Durant is a bad guy - he’s actually a good guy, just shy and uncomfortable with the press - but Oden’s deadpan wit and constant smile off the court made him a more seductive pick for a franchise that was desperately trying to win back the citizens of Portland. Supposedly, they were also attracted to Oden because he’s a loyal person who didn’t care where he played, whereas Durant’s motives were tougher to peg. In four years, if Durant evolved into a superstar and had the words of the wrong agent in his ear, would he bail on Portland to play for a big market? Could they take that chance?

So, Greg Oden was the “safe” pick.

Here’s the irony of the whole thing: You know who would have won the good people of Portland back and gotten them excited about basketball again? A kick-ass superstar like Kevin Durant. That’s why the Blazers should have taken the most talented player. And everything that happened after the draft helped Durant’s case: Oden looked terrible in the summer league and dropped out of the Olympic tryouts because of exhaustion (a dubious reason for someone who’s 19; we should have known right there). Meanwhile, Durant got better and better in summer league and knocked everyone’s socks off during the Olympic tryouts, including a jaw-dropping performance in the Blue-White scrimmage on TV. Even before the story broke about Oden’s surgery, I was 100 percent convinced Portland would regret passing on Durant. We’ll see 20 more Odens before we see another Durant.

Link.