Are the Warriors Stuck in Perpetual Mediocrity?

One thing I have been wondering lately is whether or not the Warriors are stuck.  What I mean by stuck is suck in mediocrity for the next decade.  With limited options this offseason and many, many question marks for the future, it seems that the Warriors are destined for toeing the line between late lottery and getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs as currently constructed and known.  This is perhaps the worst that can happen.  As fans we get moderately excited, only to be disappointed when we barely miss the playoffs or get eliminated early.  This also prevents us from getting high lottery picks and “franchise changing” players at the top of the draft.  The Western Conference is unbelievably talented.  Even the weaker teams in the conference have very promising young players that could propel them to the top of the conference in the future.  This is why I am afraid that the Warriors are, for lack of a better term, stuck…

Let’s go through a couple scenarios, shall we?  We’ll start by assuming that the Warriors re-sign Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins to long-term deals.  This is still no guarantee btw…

Scenario 1: Warriors go for and land "Superstar" this offseason

Say the Warriors somehow magically land Elton Brand, who is basically the only superstar left on the market right now.  The reason he would come to the Bay Area is because of the exorbitant amount of money offered to him.  The contract would most likely be 5 years at more than $15 million a year.  Sure, this would look great for the next couple years, with a team of Ellis, Biedrins, Brand, Jackson, Harrington, etc.  Still, in the tough west, it would either barely make or miss the playoffs and probably be bounced early if the team did make it in.  Even though, Jackson and Harrington are most likely to be let go after their contracts expire.  Even more problematic, Brand may be on the downside of his career by year 3 or 4 of his contract—especially since we don’t know how his surgically repaired Achilles tendon will heal.  This leaves a young team to play with a declining star, who is hogging the cap at more than $15 million.  Even optimistically, if Brand is healthy and productive throughout the length of his tenure, his large contract will essentially eliminate the Warriors from the highly anticipated 2010 free agent sweepstakes.  We will be left with an unlikely scenario that an aging Brand, Ellis, Biedrins, Wright, Randolph, etc. can make a deep playoff run.

I’m intrigued by a trade proposed on GSOM which netted the Warriors Vince Carter, Yi Jianlian and/or Marcus Williams and others in exchange for Steven Jackson, Al Harrington and others (others being whatever it takes to make it work.  This would be an interesting trade since it would give the Warriors a star for the next couple years (with a contract that expires in time for 2010) and a few more young pieces.  However, I don’t see Yi and Williams being anything more than OK to good NBA players.  More on 2010 cap room and current Warriors youngsters in…

Scenario 2: Warriors stand pat or “go young”

The second scenario involves the Warriors committing to developing their young core and signing young players to add to and complement their core.  Let’s say that (in an equally unlikely case because of RFA of the big names) the Warriors manage to sign one or a few of your favorite young free agents of this class, whether it is Andre Iguodala, Josh Smith, Shaun Livingston (personal favorite), Ramon Sessions…whoever.  As much as I like and would love to have these players on the Warriors, does it seem to you that any of these players are superstars?  No, not at all.  None of these players have the “it” factor that makes the best players in the league superstars.  Josh Smith is limited and would be a nice fit, but I don’t see him ever developing into a dominant player.  Andre Iguodala is a great player, but he seems to be like J-rich—a very, very good player, but not a star.  In the NBA, we have seen that a team must have a superstar or at least multiple stars (immediately below the superstar level) in order to be successful in the league.  Livingston is coming off a huge injury and Sessions—who knows.  Nonetheless, I don’t see—as much as I like them—these players turning into superstars.  Best case they are stars—right below the superstar level.  At that point, we still need one or two, maybe three, other stars on the same level to compete in the Western Conference.

We could save cap room and wait until the 2009 or 2010 free agent class, which would have the superstars we need and want.  However, the problem again is the likelihood that the Warriors would be able to land one of these players.  It seems that many of these stars prefer and look (already) headed to other markets such as New York. 

It seems that the only real solution is to hope that our young core of Ellis, Biedrins, Wright, Randolph, Hendrix, Belinelli, CJ and Azubuike (if we can resign him) develop into solid NBA starters/players and a few into stars or superstars.  The problem is that each player has severe limitations that make this unlikely to happen.  We all are aware of them.  Some of these skills can be developed in time, but some are just physical limitations that may inhibit their future success.  Ellis must develop PG skills, 3PT shot and improve his defense in order to make him a dominant player.  Otherwise, he will be a one-dimensional player who will suffer without the right players to complement him.  Biedrins is an athletic and skilled but limited pivot/post, who must play around the basket.  He must develop a post game in order to be a star.  Wright and Randolph are both HUGE question marks.  Both seem to have immense talent, but are painfully thin and need a lot of work on their overall game.  I see Randolph’s best case scenario as Tayshaun Prince—who is a great player, but not the superstar we need.  I have a lot of hope for Wright, but he needs quite a bit of work on expanding his game and improving his body before he can have any sort of impact.

This is why it seems to me that we are stuck.  We could risk signing a player like Brand who would limit our cap flexibility for the next 5 years and hope that he stays productive and healthy.  Even then, I’m not sure that we could go far in the playoffs.  We could try to sign one of the RFAs in this class.  However, while they’re nice players, they don’t seem to have superstar potential.  We could save the cap room for later—but it is unlikely we will get one of those “franchise changers.”  We could try to develop our own youngsters, but again, each player has limitations that seem to prevent them from becoming a dominant star.

Let’s go back to the Western Conference argument.  I’ve seen this done a lot on GSOM (most recently by philthyphil) but let’s compare the Warriors future to some other teams in the league who the Warriors will be competing with in the next 5 years (speculation w/ mostly under 30 players):

Warriors: Monta Ellis / Marco Belinelli / Anthony Randolph / Brandan Wright / Andris Biedrins / Richard Hendrix (with maybe Kelenna Azubuike & C.J. Watson)
Clippers: Baron Davis / Eric Gordon / Al Thornton / Elton Brand / Chris Kaman / DeAndre Jordan – assuming Brand resigns
Rockets: Aaron Brooks / Tracy McGrady / Donte Green / Luis Scola / Yao Ming / Carl Landry / Luther Head
Lakers: Jordan Farmar / Kobe Bryant / Lamar Odom / Pau Gasol / Andrew Bynum / Sasha Vujacic / Trevor Ariza / Luke Walton / Ronny Turiaf
Grizzlies: Mike Conley / O.J. Mayo / Rudy Gay / Hakim Warrick / Darrell Arthur / Darko Milicic
Timberwolves: Randy Foye / Rashad McCants / Corey Brewer / Kevin Love / Al Jefferson / Ryan Gomes / Craig Smith / Kirk Snyder—maybe Sebastian Telfair
Hornets: Chris Paul / Julian Wright / David West / Tyson Chandler / (maybe Morris Peterson & Peja Stojakovic)
Trailblazers: Jarryd Bayless / Brandon Roy / Travis Outlaw / LaMarcus Aldridge / Greg Oden / Martell Webster / Sergio Rodriguez / Rudy Fernandez / Nicolas Batum / Channing Frye (wow…)
Kings: Beno Udrih / Kevin Martin / Ron Artest / Jason Thompson / Spencer Hawes / John Salmons / Quincy Douby / Sean Singletary
Team Formerly Known as the Sonics: Russell Westbrook / Kevin Durant / Jeff Green / Nick Collison / Chris Wilcox / Johan Petro / Luke Ridnour / DJ White / Serge Ibaka
Jazz: Deron Williams / Ronnie Brewer / Andrei Kirilenko / Carlos Boozer / Mehmet Okur / Paul Millsap / Morris Almond / Kyle Korver / CJ Miles / Kosta Koufos / Ante Tomic

These teams will all be very competitive with the future Warriors.  The only teams I really see falling off as of now are the Suns, Mavs, Spurs, and Nuggets.

Summary: We need a superstar to be successful or at least a team full of stars.  Unlikely we find one this offseason.  Unlikely we get one in 2009 and 2010.  Major question marks about whether our young players can develop into a superstar or a team of star players.

Maybe I’m just pessimistic.  Maybe one or some of our current players will develop into stars or superstars.  Maybe Ellis becomes AI, Biedrins becomes Camby, Belinelli becomes Ray Allen, Wright becomes KG, Randolph becomes Tayshaun Prince, Hendrix becomes Boozer/Brand and I look like a complete fool.  Like people have said, Chauncey Billups didn’t turn into a star until later in his career (though I don’t think he is a superstar, and he had a team of stars around him that made the Pistons successful).  Maybe we sign some young FA this year and they gel and evolve with the group into a team of stars.  Maybe we somehow get Brand and I have severely underestimated him and that potential team as well.  Or maybe we somehow we manage to sign one of the big names in 2009 or 2010.  But the truth of the matter is that these cases are extremely unlikely.  I will be surprised—happily—if I’m wrong.  In fact, I want more than anything in sports for me to be wrong about the Warriors future.  However, I believe if you think realistically—not hopefully—you should agree with me.  Here’s to me being wrong in 2-3 years!