Since baseless speculation is the order of the day here, I’ll toss in my own:

Tim Kawakami no longer has a source inside the Warriors organization.

He’s always reported inside scoops with a pointedly pro-Mullin bias… I’m not necessarily saying that Mullin himself was the source, but the odds are that that source has either 1) left the organization or 2) lost all incentive to trash other players on Mullin’s behalf. Cohan/Rowell/Riley/Nellie is the only game in town now… at this point, being pro-Mullin is about as useful to an employee as being pro-Twardzik.

So let’s see if anything in this interview snippet actually indicates an inside source. For a TK point to indicate a current source, it 1) can’t be based on months-old information, 2) has to be based on something other than public knowledge, 3) has to show real confidence in the info presented, as opposed to “I bet that things are messed up over there”-style speculation. Does anything qualify?

Tim Kawakami: I think two of the three are likely to be here for the entire season—Warriors management is afraid of what would happen in the fan base if it ever traded Monta Ellis

This is bizarre. Monta is an entertaining and popular player, to be sure, but I don’t see any evidence that the fan base is obsessed with Monta. The last year, in fact, has gotten the fanbase pretty damn comfortable with the idea that Monta might leave. Randolph and Curry both seem to be engendering just as much excitement as Monta, if not more, and team officials have been more vocal about a Randolph/Morrow/Curry core than Monta. Not to mention that, according to TK’s own reporting, the front office thought very seriously about voiding Monta’s contract for a big chunk of last year.

So this tidbit really makes no logical sense. I can only think of two reasons why TK would be saying it:

1) This was true as of last spring, before we’d drafted Curry and before the excitement about Randolph had really kicked into overdrive — TK heard this then, hasn’t heard anything else since, and so still believes/hopes that it’s true.

2) This is ass-covering, as TK wants to keep stirring up Monta drama. If Monta gets traded, TK wins. If Monta stays, TK can say, “He and Nellie really do hate each other — this is just about keeping the fan base happy.” It allows him to talk about discord and not be proven wrong by any outcome. If the Warriors won six straight titles, TK could still say, “THEY ALL HATE EACH OTHER — THIS IS JUST ABOUT KEEPING THE FAN BASE HAPPY.”

Verdict: no evidence of a source here.

I don’t think Don Nelson will quite quit on this team with $6M left to be paid next season. Plus Rowell also would be too afraid to fire Nelson, again, with the Fear Thing paramount.

All plausible, but no proof of any inside info here.

Rowell might try to push Nelson aside—as I believe Nelson is already trying to do with Rowell—but those two might be Senseless But Equal in the mind of Chris Cohan. He’s probably stuck with both of them and they’re stuck with each other.

So, wait… Rowell is too afraid to fire Nellie again, but he might try to push him aside? Makes no sense. And TK merely “believes” Nellie’s trying to push Rowell aside — there’s no “don’t believe what you hear, this is the real scoop” bravado here. This is 100% pure speculation, and ass-covering speculation, to boot… again, no outcome will contradict TK’s conjectures here. “They’re all trying to force each other out, but it might not work, so you can’t fault me if it seems like they’re all getting along — then they’re just secretly lying to everybody.”

Verdict: no evidence of a source.

Stephen Jackson is the one who might have to go. Again, the fear thing: Rowell will appropriately fear what Jackson could do to that locker room atmosphere and less-than-appropriately fear what Jackson could do to Rowell’s reputation and credibility.

All fine and plausible, but again: no evidence of a source.

In fact, it would not shock me at all if Rowell already is telling people that he really didn’t want to extend Jackson’s contract—that it was some other mysterious entity who did it, over Rowell’s misgivings.

It would not shock you if a thing you made up happened, TK? This is getting embarrassing. No evidence of a source.

So I think Rowell will sign off on taking back some bad money by Jan or Feb if it means he can rid himself of the Jackson problem and Jackson is very good about making himself a problem. I think Jackson very much wants to end up in Cleveland, and the Cavs do have some bad contracts to toss around.

Perfectly fine analysis — I more or less agree with his thoughts. But again, we’re wondering if he has a source. This is a combination of pure conjecture and going off public quotes from Jack where he indicated interest in being a Cav. Verdict: no evidence of a source.

Tim Kawakami: Cover up a controversy? The Warriors? Really? Actually, I think that Nelson is handling this relatively correctly—Monta was so blunt (and mostly correct) about not believing he could play in a backcourt with Curry, all Nelson can do is smile and say, hey, if that’s what Monta feels… and still work them in together when the match-ups allow it.

Again, solid analysis, no evidence of a source.

I do not think Monta and Nelson are getting along, however.

O…kay. No “sources tell me that”, no “don’t believe what they tell you”… just pure speculation that there’s some sort of soap opera going on. Verdict: no evidence of a source.

I think Nelson is in love with Curry as his future point guard and doesn’t see Monta ever being his kind of point guard, or player, or anything. Warriors management, however, needs Monta to sell tickets, so there’s another stand-off: Nelson might put Ellis in position to screw up just enough so Nelson can sell management that Curry is the real long-term answer and Ellis should be moved.

All 100% speculation, and foolish speculation at that… the “Monta = tickets” theory holds zero water. TK “thinks” Nellie’s in love with a player, and that Nellie “might” put another player in a position to screw up. Cute, but: no evidence of a source.

Camp has started — players are interacting, coaches are interacting, everyone’s engaged. If Kawakami had a source within the Warriors, you’d think he’d have something new to say — some shred of information we haven’t heard. He doesn’t. He has nothing. My guess is that he no longer has a source. He had a great run dishing dirt last year, and I don’t begrudge him for it — a guy’s gotta make a living — but it would seem that that particular gravy train has come to an end.

Assuming that’s true, TK now has two options:

1) revert to being a responsible sports journalist, even if it means losing some website hits and notoriety
2) continue to discuss Warriors drama with no knowledge of what it is or even whether it’s happening

The right move is #1; TK seems set on #2. If he tries to keep dishing without a source, if he keeps reporting on smoke when there’s not even proof there’s a fire, ‘09-’10 is going to be a rough season for him, and frankly, I don’t think he’ll make it to ‘10-’11. Continuing in this vein will make him a laughingstock before long.

So some friendly advice, Tim: write what you know, omit what you don’t.