Don't trade Stephen Jackson
Ever since our We Believe team, this team has slowly lost its pieces, one by one, and each time we hear a similar line of reasoning: we're a better team without x player. we have someone else who can do just as well or even better with the minutes freed up. we'll have more cap space.
Perhaps fourth time's the charm (JRich, BD, Al Harrington, Stack is #4). But i don't want to risk it anymore... I would rather have someone I know, no matter how limited, instead of banking on potential. I'm tired of potential, whether it's potential in youth, potential in cap flexibility... our franchise doesn't know how to cultivate potential and is terrible with cap space when we do have it.
Some of the reasons will be more objective while some will just be emotional gushing. Nevertheless, no one else has posted to try and keep our still de-facto captain and I think it's paramount to the Warrior's future that he stays, so I'll give it a shot.
Why Jackson shouldn't be traded:
1.) Emotional rant =/= Trade. Kobe Bryant two years ago was crying to be traded: there was video, interviews, crying and moaning etc. They kept him. Stephen Jackson is an emotional guy; sometimes he says stupid things, and much of what he said about the organization and its confusion wasn't necessarily wrong. It hurt a lot of feelings, yeah, but feelings can be patched. Don't let a talent and leader like him go just cuz he is what he is: we can't get mad at him for raging when we knew he always had that in him and loved him exactly for that just last season.
2.) Addition by Subtraction doesn't work. At least, not for the Warriors in the last 15 years. Examples:
Trades
Sprewell --> Starks/Cummings/Mills = fail.
Jamison --> van exel + Dale Davis = bad.
Al Harrington --> Crawford = bad.
Jason Richardson --> B Wright = bad.
Crawford --> Point gaurd potpourri = bad.
Free Agency
Baron Davis = terrible, we're still looking for that big 1 gaurd that can play with Monta.
Conversely, the only playoff season in the last fifteen years came because we benefited from someone else's "addition by subtraction" policy: Dale Davis + pick --> Baron Davis.
(Harrington + Jackson for Dunleavy + Murphy is purposely excluded because it was a win win and both teams received sufficient talent for what they gave up.)
3.) Jackson's skills. I think we can make a strong case that Jackson will be like Cliff Robinson, a player who's skills will erode very little as they do not depend on athleticism. Jackson's jumper works cuz he shoots it from behind his head, fisher style, and as such he rarely gets blocked. his fadeaway works in similar fashion. he doesn't drive with any sort of speed, just awkwardly... but it works. I know there's a glut of 2/3 on this team, and we need to get rid of someone... but I'd rather get rid of Ellis than Jackson because of the former's dependence on speed and the latter's reliance on smarts. And yes, Jackson is a smart player.
4.) I DON'T WANT TO LOSE HIM. This guy is a warrior. He has heart. he's the BEST TEAMMATE in the league. He loves us (the fans) and he loves his time here, he's just a dummy who stuck his foot in his mouth. I'd write more with perhaps more eloquence and persuasiveness but it's late here =( So i'll pass the mic to you guys. REmember, KEEP STACK JACK... LOYALTY DOESN'T DIE IN A FEW WEEKS
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
8 recs |
219 comments
Comments
don't trade him for LESS than value
lets be honest. We’re gonna have to unless we magically make a move for an all star and start challenging. That being said, i would rather sit him than trade him for beans…. I hope we wait till trade deadline, someone will be desperate
by tafkasam on Nov 10, 2009 7:37 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=mc-jackson111009&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
He is destroying team chemistry….he needs to go. Get expiring contracts so the other guys can play….
Starters
Biedrins
Randolph
Azuibuike
Curry
Ellis
Morrow/Magette/Turiaf/Watson is our bench….if we work together (like last night) we will be fine. Let the team build chemistry together with Jackson gone.
by Bellringer21 on Nov 10, 2009 7:50 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
there's an easy solution to bad team chemistry: winning.
anquoin boldin is an example of an nfl player who demanded to be traded but still played hard afterwards. He’s still on the cards now and played great for them.
we don’t HAVE to trade him. he won’t quit on us either. Jackson’s always been an emotional guy, but in many ways he’s very mature and he can ride through this criticizing from his teammates.
I also loved how well he spoke of Nelson from that article you cited
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 8:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We DO have to trade him…..things arent getting better. He wants out and with his agent ripping Nelson he is making matters worse. I dont see any clips from any Cardinal players saying they dont want Boldin around….the situation is different.
I would take expiring contracts (guys who dont even play) for Jackson right now. The cap space isnt the issue-just no reason to take back dead weight for Jackson. We already haev enough dead weight with Maggette on the team.
by Bellringer21 on Nov 10, 2009 8:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
all those players you listed, except randolph, suck. period.
we’re all realizing it now, we shoulda got Jennings!!!!
The Warriors aren't playing like the Raiders.
The Raiders are playing like the Warriors.
- Precise Films Productions
by AR4 on Nov 12, 2009 7:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
btw dso
you’re the man for having the guts to write this on here. this is such an anti jack site, since the day he was traded here he’s been treated unfair, it’s really nice that you spoke from your heart and you have generated a lot of buzz. good job!
The Warriors aren't playing like the Raiders.
The Raiders are playing like the Warriors.
- Precise Films Productions
by AR4 on Nov 12, 2009 7:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It takes “guts” to talk nonsense on the internets? Like, we’re all heroes!!!
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Nov 12, 2009 9:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Biedrins, Azubuike, Curry, Ellis, Morrow, Maggette, Turiaf.
Not one of those guys “sucks.” Period.
Now your posts, on the other hand…
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Nov 12, 2009 8:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In Boldin’s situation, his teammates still wanted him there. Fitz even offered to take a pay cut in order to keep Boldin. that’s not the case here if the Spears story is true.
by the evil monkey on Nov 10, 2009 8:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The article looked like a lot of stuff taken from all across the timeline
I’m sure the “when they trade him” comment was while he was demanding a trade. It’s a well woven story, but without having to actually quote sources and provide a timeline for those comments, it’s not too hard to spin a story how you like… Am I being overly optimistic? Yeah, but I highly doubt that the players are talking about chemistry issues NOW, during the season. And if they were, it’s probably “We just got blown out by the Clippers and Kings in back to back games, and I’m depressed” line of thinking. Are they going to trade him? Probably.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 10, 2009 10:32 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Crawford for point guards was good… VERY good. Acie is turning out to be pretty good and gotta love expiring contracts.
Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.
by Naticus2 on Nov 10, 2009 7:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
you don't know that
when the warriors have cap space (from expiring contracts) they’ve sucked with it. not as bad these days as the mullin era or even gary st. jean and danny fortson lol buttt yeah warriors history shows that cap space D.N.E good players. and don’t make any judgements of law or whoever from two garbage games
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 8:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Almost anything is better than Crawford.
Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.
by Naticus2 on Nov 10, 2009 5:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah 50 point scorers are not useful
unless you want to win games
Standing on the moon
Where talk is cheap and vision true
Standing on the moon
But I would rather be with you
Somewhere in San Francisco
On a back porch in July
Just looking up to heaven
At this crescent in the sky
by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 11, 2009 10:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Shouldn’t games be singular? Yes, you might win the game Crawford gets hot and play well. Losing all the other games where he plays awful is worse than winning one game that he plays well in.
by Missing Barry on Nov 11, 2009 11:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
50 point scorers are useful on the nights that they score 50 points, true. The nights that they go 6 for 16 with 2 rebounds and let their man score 30? Those nights much less so, and Crawford had more games like that than the 50 point ones. If you evaluate him by what he did at his best? Great player. If you evaluate him by what you’re more likely to get on any given night? Not a good player. That latter part matters.
by jae on Nov 11, 2009 11:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
unless you want to win games
Wow, Skep … who would have thought you were a closet Dave Berri / Wins Produced nerd? You sly devil.
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Nov 11, 2009 11:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Skeptic vs. Sleepy
Consistently the most entertaining rivalry in sports
Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!
by Supafishal on Nov 11, 2009 12:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
-1
The best battle is DFiB vs. BritWarrior
Always a classic battle!
GSOM- Where Education From Debate Happens
by The Dedication on Nov 11, 2009 1:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not really a "battle"
It’s more: DFiB tries to point out inconsistencies and otherwise outrageous claims in BritWarrior’s assertions, and BritWarrior rants on about how DFiB hates him without actually addressing DFiB’s stance.
I fully accept that I may be wrong on many counts, but it’s not a battle if one side isn’t even willing to discuss the topic at hand and just wants to take things personally.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 11, 2009 1:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Fine, then: Skeptic and I will take our award back.
Ingrate. ;-P
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Nov 11, 2009 3:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Acie is not “turning out to be pretty good”. Just b/c a guy like Josh Powell or Adam Morrison or whoever does pretty good against scrubs at the end of the game where no one is really running anything doesn’t mean they’re good.
If you don’t believe me, at least consider that they didn’t bother to extend him and that they’ve had a pretty good record in terms of supposed rotation guys not playing outside of garbage time (Diogu, Foyle, POB, Marcus Williams).
by the evil monkey on Nov 10, 2009 8:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, Naticus is right on this one because Jamal Crawford sucks and actively causes his team to lose games. So it doesn’t matter what we got back, because poorly spent cap space is still better than Jamal Crawford.
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 9:14 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly.
Indeed, the equation
Crawford —> Point gaurd potpourri = bad.
should read simply
Crawford —> bad.
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Nov 10, 2009 9:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
thats why crawford is the sixth man of the year so far on a 5-2 team....
he helps if he has some help and is the 3rd option not if nelson plays him 45 minutes a game..
Marco Belinelli's Biggest Fan
by montadaboss on Nov 10, 2009 10:46 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Are you arguing that the success ATL has had this year is somehow more indicative of Crawford’s contributions than the previous decade where he played substantial time for teams that never made the playoffs?
Crawford has had a very strong start to this season. He had a very strong start to last season as well. He’s never been anywhere near as efficient from the floor as he’s been in 7 games this year.
People who rely on small sample sizes to draw conclusions, when larger samples contradict them do so at their own peril.
by jae on Nov 10, 2009 11:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
People who rely on small sample sizes to draw conclusions, when larger samples contradict them do so at their own peril.
depends on the conclusions drawn, a large sample can still lead to a wrong conclusion if the person doesn’t understand why the results are so?
Is Crawford bad or has he just been on bad teams? Since it’s a team sport his individual stats taken out of context mean little, there’s no way to prove they would be bad if he was on a winning team cause we can’t go back and do it again with different combinations of players and different coachs with different game plans. Maybe Crawford has just not found the right situation till now.
Standing on the moon
Where talk is cheap and vision true
Standing on the moon
But I would rather be with you
Somewhere in San Francisco
On a back porch in July
Just looking up to heaven
At this crescent in the sky
by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 11, 2009 10:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Is Crawford bad or has he just been on bad teams?
That is not an either/or proposition.
Crawford has been on bad teams. Crawford is not the only reason those teams have been bad, but he is part of the reason.
Taking his individual stats out of context would be stupid. But putting them in context they aren’t better.
This notion that a player just needs to find the right situation may be true in a limited number of instances, but for the most part, it’s naive wishful thinking. Basketball production tends to be reasonably consistent from year to year and from team to team when players change teams. (Note the word “tends” before supplying anecdotal evidence as rebuttal. That word is important.) If ‘the right situation’ was usually important, then we would expect more variation in production. Since we do not tend to see it, it indicates that it’s not terribly important most of the time.
by jae on Nov 11, 2009 11:36 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
So how would you like to explain is fast start? I’m not saying that it will continue, but I’d have to agree with Skep because I see Crawford as a Maggette like figure. Somebody to come off the bench and bring instant scoring. Crawford’s last two stops at NY & GS were allowing him to do whatever he wanted. This year he is being coached and also has a solidfied role, something he hasn’t had in a loooooong.
GSOM- Where Education From Debate Happens
by The Dedication on Nov 11, 2009 2:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So how would you like to explain is fast start?
Are you serious? It’s 7 games. It’s no different then a terrible baseball player having a 7 game hit streak. It doesn’t need any explanation. It’s simply a good 7 game stretch. Everyone has them.
I’d have to agree with Skep
That’s not going to get you very far. :)
I see Crawford as a Maggette like figure
If Maggette shot the ball on 20 separate possessions, he would score about 23 points on average. If Crawford shot the ball on 20 separate possessions, he would score a little less than 21 points on average. 2-2.5 points over 20 possessions is a pretty big difference. Crawford is not like Maggette. Maggette helps the team by shooting, Crawford hurts the team by shooting.
by Missing Barry on Nov 11, 2009 2:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
(Someone correct me if I misused TS% – I used their career TS%’s to calculate those numbers)
by Missing Barry on Nov 11, 2009 2:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Are you serious? It’s 7 games
Coming from a blog that is contemplating “tanking” after back-to-back losses. I was just asking how he felt about his role w/ Atlanta.
Maggette helps the team by shooting, Crawford hurts the team by shooting
Maggette helps the team by going to the line, scoring and-1’s and not shooting the ball while Crawford helps his team by shooting outside & making three pointers.
My point was that Crawford is a a good 3rd or 4th option and has the perfect role for the Hawks by being the scorer off the bench on a team that actually run plays.
GSOM- Where Education From Debate Happens
by The Dedication on Nov 11, 2009 2:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Maggette helps the team by going to the line, scoring and-1’s and not shooting the ball while Crawford helps his team by shooting outside & making three pointers.
If you consider those shots that were taken but not tallied as FGA’s because of a foul, then Maggette helps his team by shooting. He draws fouls in the act of shooting which are erased as attempts if they do not go in. Maggette has been a moderate efficiency shooter for most of his career with a knack for getting to the line. He wouldn’t get to the line if he wasn’t attempting shots though.
For most of his career, Crawford has shot poorly enough that he has been a detriment to his team because he takes many more shots than his efficiency suggests he should. Crawford isn’t helping with his 3’s this year. He’s shooting very poorly from beyond the arc. He is getting to the line more than he has in year’s past. That, and better percentage on 2’s is what has him in elite efficiency for now.
by jae on Nov 11, 2009 3:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Coming from a blog that is contemplating "tanking" after back-to-back losses.
Good point, just so we’re on the same page, I’ve been one of the few trying to make people realize we’ve played about 5% of the season so far….
by Missing Barry on Nov 11, 2009 4:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So how would you like to explain is fast start?
Small.sample.size.
Through 7 games last season, Crawford was shooting >45% from the field with a 0.57 TS% When we acquired him last year, he was hitting better than 45% on his threes for the 11 game old season. He may play a little better this year, but concluding that he’s all of a sudden great because of a few games gets you into trouble more often than not. It’s a pretty big stretch to say that in 10 years prior is was all the various coaches who misused him and now he’s a player who will be superior to Jordan in scoring efficiency.
by jae on Nov 11, 2009 3:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So how would you like to explain is fast start? I’m not saying that it will continue,
That last part always seems to get lost. I was stating that he is starting off pretty good and was asking if you think that it is because he is playing a smaller role on a more organized & functional offense.
GSOM- Where Education From Debate Happens
by The Dedication on Nov 11, 2009 4:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And our point is it’s just random luck, or random variation as we say in the stat business ;)
It doesn’t need to be explained.
by Missing Barry on Nov 11, 2009 8:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
thats why crawford is the sixth man of the year so far
Haha, I must have missed where he received that prestigious honor. Did he break down in tears and thank the academy?
In his seven games, Crawford’s overall shooting percentage and scoring are up from last year, while his rebounding, assists, 3 pt shooting, and steal numbers are down (and they were crappy to begin with). While steal numbers are not always the best measure of defense, Crawford’s microscopic totals (0.9 per 36 last season, 1.0 the two seasons before that, 0.5 this season), paired with his low foul numbers, suggest that he doesn’t even try on defense. I’d call him a matador, but at least a matador waves a flag and moves around a bit. Crawdaddy’s more like a spectator. And he’s always been a terrible rebounder (totally inexcusable, given his 6’6" frame and long arms), a mediocre passer, and a poor/inefficient shooter. He seems like a nice enough guy, but he’s a terribly lazy, one-dimensional player. Put simply: he’s bad.
he helps if he has some help
You misspelled, “I am a rather silly, immature, and boring poster with a transparent pro-Crawford agenda. And my cat’s breath smells like cat food.”
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Nov 10, 2009 12:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Quick!
Rec every one of his comments!
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 10, 2009 12:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Haha. Somehow his 15 minutes of fame as “King of Recommended Diaries” seems to outweigh all the subsequent schooling…
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Nov 10, 2009 12:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He was never "KoRD"
He just failed to realize the true reason his diaries were recommended.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 10, 2009 2:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Atlanta went 47-35 last year. They’re a pretty decent team. Crawford is not why they’re 5-2.
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 12:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
um………. not my point.
i was arguing the perception that Acie Law is “turning out to be pretty good”.
not whether the trade was good for the Warriors or not.
by the evil monkey on Nov 10, 2009 5:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He’s tough and plays good defense. Since Crawford was a ZERO in defense and toughness, Law is infinitely better than him in that category. On offense, he is better than Crawford, mostly because Crawford shot a LOT and shot like hell.
Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.
by Naticus2 on Nov 10, 2009 5:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
On offense, he is better than Crawford, mostly because Crawford shot a LOT and shot like hell.
True, doing nothing on offense is better than doing what Jamal Crawford does. :)
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 8:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Subtracting Crawford's scoring + no defense made us better as well.
Addition by subtraction.
by gobigg415 on Nov 10, 2009 8:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
His teammates disagree.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=mc-jackson111009&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
by the evil monkey on Nov 10, 2009 8:31 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
yeah i read that off hoopshype too
his teammates are kids.
trust me… it can work. we don’t HAVE to do anything as long as the player doesn’t purposely tank his game or refuses to accept his role. jackson is playing hard and there’s no evidence that that will change.
as jackson said, these kids need to grow up. players are going to want out all the time… if you let it become a distraction, it will be. when kobe was threatening to cry after every game two years ago ( if you were in LA and was listening to AM570 at the time you would know how huge of a distraction that was) the team could have gone to crap. but it didn’t…
jackson isn’t kobe. but he’s not being nearly as distracting as kobe was, though his agents didn’t make things better with the stuff he said. but as jackson said, what his agent said was not representative of jackson’s opinion.
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 8:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
all that shows is that either Faker players are better able to handle distractions than Warrior players. Maybe b/c they live in LA and LA is one big distraction?
it’s not a question of should or shouldn’t. the fact is the Faker players weren’t distracted (they went 26-11 to start the season and the Warrior players are (based on the comments in Spears’ article).
by the evil monkey on Nov 10, 2009 8:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
let's wait a bit before we commit Spears's opinion as fact.
it’s only been six (rather dissapointing) games. we’ll find out a lot on this upcoming road trip. cuz the truth is that winning cures all chemistry issues, and if we can just win..
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 8:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
we’ll find out a lot on this upcoming road trip
Yes, we’ll find out that we genuinely, truly are a crappy NBA team
WARRIORS BASKETBALL!!! Patiently waiting for a title...I may be waiting for a long time...
by JustSomeName on Nov 10, 2009 10:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
actually...
it’s been more than 6 games. as this was already going on before camp even started. so since the team arrived at camp through to now, they have had to deal with this.
and to dso,
these kids need to grow up? so having a guy who was a leader and vet on the team actively try to make things worse and worse to get out of there is something to just brush off? sure kobe asked for a trade in a public way..but he also made it clear he hoped something got ressolved and other moves were made so he would stay in LA. Then he shut up and played and tried to make his team better when the season started. hardly the same situation. no matter if you are a vet or a rookie, when you have a situation that toxic going on on a daily basis…no one is going to be able to get on the same page. i’d compare it to the barry bonds situation in SF, but it’s not as if those last few years bonds was out there running his mouth actively trying to escalate the situation.
by dannyschmanny on Nov 10, 2009 11:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
? i did put in the condition: “based on the comments in Spears’ article.”
but he was the one who broke the Wright story among others. so i doubt he’d be lying about this.
and assuming that, it’s pretty obvious the W’s don’t handle distractions like the Lakers.
if we can just win..the problem is they aren’t going to win (even if they do trade Jackson) – the blame then will be 100% Nellie. they’ll get rid of him and then the blame will shift to Maggette, then Monta… (and always Cohan/Rowell).
by the evil monkey on Nov 10, 2009 5:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah thats what I posted earlier…..he needs to go
by Bellringer21 on Nov 10, 2009 9:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
WTH....
are you a Warriors fan? if so, how can you support stephen jackson? he’s a traitor. We revived his career and repaired his image since his days in Indiana and this is how he repays us? the only reason he played hard for us before was so that he can get more money out of us. and not that he has, he wants to bounce.
F that FOO! I hope we trade him to the Bobcats!
by HireMeAsGM on Nov 10, 2009 8:40 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
also, i don’t really care what we get back in return. trading jackson will free up more playing time for guys like Morrow and Buike who deserve the minutes.
why invest more in a 31 year old, ball hoggin, whiny, horrible teammate when you have all this young talent just waiting in the wings?
don’t get too hyped up about all the assists he got last night. that’s not stephen jackson on a regular basis. he’s a 20 – 25 shots a night, shooting 35% FG guy who disrupts the team chemistry and complains about every single non-foul call and doesn’t get back on defense.
F that FOO!
by HireMeAsGM on Nov 10, 2009 8:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
why invest more in a 31 year old, ball hoggin, whiny, horrible teammate when you have all this young talent just waiting in the wings?
Because young players are inconsistent and often don’t know how to win. Jackson has been in the league all this time, because he’s a good, consistent player. If all you ever do is play young players, you’ll never amount to much.
Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.
by Naticus2 on Nov 10, 2009 5:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That, sir
Is blasphemy in these parts.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 10, 2009 5:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
Sadly, that’s true. I’m convinced Dubs fans have gotten addicted to hope and are afraid to make the moves necessary to actually contend. If you sit on young players and feel optimistic all the time, that’s a pretty good pay off. You certainly don’t have to risk losing to the 8th seed in the first round of the playoffs.
Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.
by Naticus2 on Nov 10, 2009 6:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m convinced Dubs fans have gotten addicted to hope and are afraid to make the moves necessary to actually contend.
Dear Spaghetti Monster, I hope we’ll never see the day when Dubs fans are actually “making the moves.”
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 10, 2009 6:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Because young players are inconsistent and often don’t know how to win.
True.
Jackson has been in the league all this time, because he’s a good, consistent player.
False. Jackson has been in the league all this time because he’s a decent, consistent player. He is simply not much of an asset, and not particularly better than our other options at the wing. He does many little things better than guys like Morrow and Azubuike, but he does a lot of big things worse.
If all you ever do is play young players, you’ll never amount to much.
False. You may never amount to much, if your young players aren’t good enough… there’s certainly a risk of that here. But good young players can amount to plenty. Portland’s effective age last year was lower than ours. Didn’t matter… they were a good team.
It is true that many fans overrate the potential of young players. It is also true that many fans overrate the contributions of veterans. It is quite possible that Warriors fans collectively overrate guys like Morrow and Azubuike. But it is even more possible that Warriors fans have collectively overrated Stephen Jackson for several years now. There is no evidence, whatsoever, that he is an above-average, winning player.
by onlxn on Nov 11, 2009 12:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But it is even more possible that Warriors fans have collectively overrated Stephen Jackson for several years now.
I’d say that this is almost a certainty.
by jae on Nov 11, 2009 11:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If all you ever do is play young players, you’ll never amount to much.
haha, you’ll amount to much suck!!!
Standing on the moon
Where talk is cheap and vision true
Standing on the moon
But I would rather be with you
Somewhere in San Francisco
On a back porch in July
Just looking up to heaven
At this crescent in the sky
by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 11, 2009 10:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
do you remember when our starting lineup was bimbo, starks, mills, cummings, dampier
or what sprewell did to pj
or when our big free agent signing was bobby sura lol
we’ve gone through way worse as a franchise than have a former zealot get disillusioned and want out. but jackson isn’t like davis or harrington or even richardson. he’s the one guy that has the charisma and the determination to play/work through even his own retarded remarks and be a benefit to this team.
what he brings to this team is better than what we will get in return. and “addition by subtraction” never works for us.
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 8:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I would much rather do some addition by addition
and keep Jack.
I still like this trade:
Maggs, Speedy, Acie, George to NOLA for Posey and Peja
Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!
by Supafishal on Nov 10, 2009 8:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes I agree that addition by subtraction never worked for us
but at this point i don’t care about the addition part
the subtraction in itself is well worth the cost
even the warriors players want stephen jackson gone. they don’t want him in the locker room. THE OTHER WARRIORS PLAYERS WANT HIM GONE!!!
by HireMeAsGM on Nov 10, 2009 9:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
lol everyone posting that same article over and over
here are some excerpts from the post game transcript:
-Q: Nelson said if that’s how you play after your lawyer criticizes him, then he wants that to happen every day…
-JACKSON: (Laughs) That was all on my agent. I can’t take any blame for that. He was upset with some things and he spoke his mind. We work good together because we both speak our minds.
But I would never bash coach in the paper like that. I never have. I’ve got a lot of respect for coach.
-Q: How has your team reacted to everything going on with you?
-JACKSON: I talked to them today. My team knows that everything that’s going on with me outside of basketball has nothing to do with me as a teammate on the court.
I’m the only guy on this team that’s having barbecues, that’s bringing guys to the house for football parties. I’m still doing that. It has nothing to do with my teammates. They know when the ball goes up, I’m giving 110%.
None of this is affecting them. They know it’s a business and they understand that. If you ask any one of my teammates, they know it hasn’t affected me being an uncle to the young guys and being a leader on this team. It hasn’t affected my play at all and it hasn’t affected my relationship with them.
-Q: So if you go, they can still use your house for barbecues?
-JACKSON: Oh yeah. That’s the thing. Before I got here, BD and J-Rich, they never did that. Then when me and Al got here, we started that up. And that’s why we had success.
That’s just me as a person. That has nothing to do with basketball.
-Q: What was your opinion about the substance of what Stevens said about Nelson on your behalf?
-JACKSON: I don’t think it was on my behalf, it was his opinion. I speak on my own behalf, as you all know. Fined for that. That’s how he feels.
I respect coach to the utmost. You’ll never see me saying anything in the paper to you guys about coach in any bad way. I have too much respect for him.
That’s Mark’s opinion. He feels like some things coach is doing are not right, but he’s my coach right now. I have to give him the respect and I have to continue to give him respect.
it’s pretty obvious that Mr. Spears already had a story in mind before writing his article and made the evidence match his thesis. this isn’t inherently wrong, but the article should be viewed for what it is: skewed by the author’s predetermined intention
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 9:22 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Do all of them want him gone? Do they want to trade him, even for crap in return? I suspect Ellis would like him to stay, at least.
Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.
by Naticus2 on Nov 10, 2009 5:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Are you loyal to the players or the organization? Who did more for you? Think about it. I’d support Stack Jack over the front office any day. If he was the GM or owner we’d be a winning squad.
by gobigg415 on Nov 10, 2009 8:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s not a question of “loyalty.” We owe no loyalty to either party involved. What we’re talking about is a specific, very straightforward business situation in which two very rich parties (neither of whom we know personally) committed to signing a binding contract to work together for three years beyond this season. Neither party has done anything to breach the terms of the contract; yet one of these parties is now trying to weasel its way out of the contract — or rather, weasel its way out of its end of the obligation while forcing the other party to hold up their end, in the form of millions and millions of dollars.
Indeed, if all weasel party wanted was out of the contract, the other party would happily oblige by tearing up the contract, and both parties could move forward amicably. But weasel party effectively wants to have its cake and eat it too.
There’s no more information anyone should need to make a reasonable and fair judgment about who’s in the right and who’s in the wrong in this specific and straightforward business situation. Indeed, additional information only seems to cloud a lot of people’s judgment.
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Nov 10, 2009 9:57 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
You know why we need to trade Stephen Jackson? It’s very simple. Counting this season, he has 4 years $35.4M on his contract. He’s 31 already. His contract extension was horrible, and we’ll be better off getting rid of it. Did I mention we have plenty of capable wings to fill his shoes?
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 9:17 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
look i understand that past precedent is not a reliable indicator of future results
i know our poor trade history doesn’t necessarily mean trading sjax would be bad (flipping 99 tails doesn’t mean the next flip will be heads)
but i do know this: we’ve been doing this every year! we lose x core player, whether by trade or free agency, and then justify by saying we have such and such player who can take his place and it gives us such and such cap flexibility. harrington davis jrich makes it three years in a row, this year would be the fourth if we lose stack jack. and really, i can’t help but feel the dread of watching this team disintegrate piece by piece, every time with a similar justification.
needs to stop somewhere lol.
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 9:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I actually think we did a good job with all those moves. Seriously, if we hadn’t extended Jack right now or signed Maggette, this team would be looking great. As it is those two moves messed things up, but we have a chance to get out of one of them, we need to take it. And unlike some times in the past, we really do have guys we know can step in and play instead of Jack. We know what Ellis can do. We know what Buike can do. We’ve seen good things from Curry and Morrow. Maggette has a long history of being a productive offensive player (even though he’s a black hole). We really do have the pieces to replace Jack. For the first time in a long, long time we have young talent we can build around. And not Mike Dunleavy “he was picked 3rd so he must be good!” talent, either.
I can’t even think of how horrible a situation, in terms of talent, age, injuries and salary, we’d be in right now if Davis and JRich were still around. We wouldn’t be able to keep our young productive players, we wouldn’t be that good, and we wouldn’t have a very bright future. I think a group of players including Ellis, Biedrins, Randolph, Wright, Buike, Morrow and Curry, and being able to keep the good ones because we have the salary flexiblity, is a much better situation.
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 9:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
no one can predict the future, especially with the warriors
they might luck into a series of favorable deals/trades that might lead to potential cap space which might lead to potential star power joining our team. but then we go and sign stack jack for 3 more years for… no sane reason, try to sign gilbert arenas out of panic, etc etc.
in a scenario where a franchise cannot be trusted to make rational decisions, i would rather have players i can trust (bd, jrich, barnes) and less salary cap room than a lot of unproven players (AR, Morrow, etc.) with potential and more salary cap room.
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 10:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Gilbert can guard 2’s and is a good point guard. I can see why we tried to sign him. The fact that we offered so much money suggests our FO is willing to spend. I think that was a good sign.
Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.
by Naticus2 on Nov 10, 2009 5:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I took it as a panicked, Brian Sabean-esque, “OMG Carlos Lee turned us down let’s throw $126M at Zito!”….
Yeah, there was every reason to believe Zito was going to be useful at the time, too, but it was a not very smart move. Signing Gilbert would have been a similar rash, and bad, move (in my opinion)…
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 8:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Totally agree. If Jack is subtracted properly, our roster situation is pretty nice. That doesn’t mean we’ll get good… coaching and GMing and health are all big question marks here. But we have a lot of youth and a bit of talent. That, in and of itself, is a positive.
by onlxn on Nov 10, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m of the opinion that if we had kept Baron and not extended Jack, we would be in a much better position.
Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.
by Naticus2 on Nov 10, 2009 5:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I have 0 faith in Baron Davis. I’ve heard a lot of stuff about him beyond just what we see through the media that makes me seriously question him, in addition to his actual history that’s on display. I’ve heard some pretty bad stuff about him during the Monty-era – from a “source”, aka, friend of a friend of a friend, but said person was supposed to be very close to the situation :)
Also heard some bad stuff about him from a good friend of mine who hung out with him a few times….
Combine that with what he did last year (hindsight is great, isn’t it?), his injury history, his age, his attitude/motivational problems, his habit of becoming a huge ballhog who gives minimal effort into playing team basketball….yeah, glad we didn’t hitch our wagon to Baron, and if I was making the call, I would have let him walk, too…
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 8:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
every time with a similar justification.
I think this strategy is used by the sales team to “look at the future” to sell more tickets, only to make their numbers and put butts in the seats. Which brings us back to CC and RR, all they wanna do is make the bottom line! It’s been going on like this for the past 15+ years and needs to STOP! Sell the team, Cohan!
WARRIORS BASKETBALL!!! Patiently waiting for a title...I may be waiting for a long time...
by JustSomeName on Nov 10, 2009 10:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Point by point rebuttal:
1.) Stephen Jackson isn’t Kobe Bryant. Bryant is among the best players in the league, a player you can build a championship team around, so long as you have another top piece. Stephen Jackson is NOT. You can not build around him. In fact, statistically, Jackson is significantly below average over his career. Now, that may not tell the whole story, but comparing him to Kobe Bryant (who is above average by every conceivable definition) is insane.
2) I disagree with some of your assessments here. I’d rather have Jamison than Carter (Jamison has heart!). I’d rather have Wright than Richardson (we have no room for Richardson on this roster). etc
3) Jackson is not a smart player. Or, if he is, he often chooses to play dumb. He jacks up a lot of shots early in the shot clock. He dominates the ball way too much. He is not a great decision-maker with the ball.
40 He’s the best teammate in the league? Call me crazy but I think the best teammate in the league would lead by example, rather than lead a mutiny against his coach.
by Ronaldinho on Nov 10, 2009 9:20 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I’d rather have Jamison than Carter (Jamison has heart!).
You can’t say that…just because Vince Carter always has that bored expression on, that’s just how his face looks! Doesn’t mean he has any less heart than any player, remember how pumped he was after he dunked on that 7 foot frenchman in the olympics? THAT’S heart! That’s like saying Randolph hates being on the Warriors cause he always looks like he’s crying…
WARRIORS BASKETBALL!!! Patiently waiting for a title...I may be waiting for a long time...
by JustSomeName on Nov 10, 2009 10:18 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Talk to any Raptors fan.
Carter is incredibly talented, probably more talented than Jamison. But Carter doesn’t care. The moment things don’t go perfectly for him, he starts mailing it in. He’s a dagger in the heart of every player who loves to watch the game played with passion, intensity, and teamwork.
Sure, yeah, he gets excited when he dunks on some french dude. Woohoo! I’m sorry, give me a player who gives you effort every game, every time.
by Ronaldinho on Nov 10, 2009 10:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s like saying Randolph hates being on the Warriors cause he always looks like he’s crying…
REC
GSOM- Where Education From Debate Happens
by The Dedication on Nov 11, 2009 4:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well said...
I never understood everyones obsession w/ Captain Jack. He should NEVER be a first or second option on ANY team.
- He makes poor decisions (turnover machine)
- always takes ill advised shots (fast break threes)
- volume shooter (one of the first field goal percentages in the league)
- always dribbles it off his leg (again turnover machine)
- Headcase (technicals!)
- one of the worst contracts in the league!
Unlike most Warrior fans, even during WE BELIEVE, i could not stand Stephen Jackson. I am so excited to have him off this team in the next couple weeks!
by krazybalr on Nov 10, 2009 12:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He doesn’t make poor decisions. He’s a “turnover machine,” when too much is asked of him. That year was a fluke, with regard to his TO rate.
He doesn’t always take ill advised shots. He makes a decent % of them, in fact, suggesting otherwise.
With Jack’s volume shooting, we still had one of the best offenses in the league, efficiency-wise.
Headcase… so true.
One of the worst contracts… yeah, it’s pretty bad.
Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.
by Naticus2 on Nov 10, 2009 5:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
length wise it's bad
but the actual money being paid by year is not too bad. there are people with far worse contracts (ie remember croshere after the pacers/lakers finals that fool got a near-max for one good series, or jerome james etc etc)
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 6:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You’re right, the money isn’t all that bad, but the length is just awful. He’s likely to get worse every year (that’s just what players in their 30’s tend to do)….which makes the length even worse…
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 8:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
With Jack’s volume shooting, we still had one of the best offenses in the league, efficiency-wise.
What’s your source on this? Basketball Prospectus, John Hollinger (his ‘08-’09 numbers are currently down) and 82games.com all rated our ‘08-’09 offense somewhere between the 11th and 15th most efficient in the league. Above average, but hardly one of the best. And according to all three, 1) Stephen Jackson was not one of our eight most efficient scorers, 2) our offense was only very marginally worse when he was off the floor, 3) our defense wasn’t any worse when he was off the floor.
I’m not sure where you’re getting your numbers, but Jack was not a huge asset last season. And it was his career year. He’s really not nearly as useful as you seem to think.
by onlxn on Nov 11, 2009 12:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, I will agree he was a “turnover machine” when asked to do too much. One of the many reason why he should never be a 1st or 2nd option on any team.
I will have to disagree about his shooting…
Yes, in the Don Nelson offense its free reign when it comes to shooting, but he has consistently been one of the worst shooters in the league in respect to shooting percentage. Anyone that is only making one third of his shots from beyond the arc should not be taking that many threes! Don’t even get me started on his 2pt scoring which isnt much better.
Personally, I would rather have more efficient players like Monta & Morrow taking those shots.
by krazybalr on Nov 11, 2009 9:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone that is only making one third of his shots from beyond the arc should not be taking that many threes!
33% from 3pt land == 50% from 2pt land. Take 6 threes, hit 2 = 6 points. Take 6 2 pointers, hit 3 = 6 points.
Three point shots are 1.5 times as valuable as two point shots. If you are going to complain about a guy only hitting 1/3 of this threes you have to show how he’s passing up two-point shots that have a better than 50% chance of going in or a better chance of getting rebounded by the offense for a put-back or are less likely to lead to a fast break by the other team. Alternately you can argue that he should be giving the ball to a guy who hits threes at a better percentage. Hmm… I think i just proved your point for you.
I don’t like Jackson shooting threes. Now you know why.
by toddaverth on Nov 12, 2009 3:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The math should be a bit more complicated. It would appear that the 50% shooter (which is considered reasonably good) and the 33% shooter on threes would have the same rate of return, but in practice, this is not the case. Made 3 pointers are worth 1.5x’s what made 2 pointers are, but that ignores other significant factors. The break even point for shooting 3’s vs. 2’s has to be a bit higher because the 3 point shooter is so rarely fouled.
The TS% average across the league is about 0.54. This seems to be true for guards and bigs alike. This means for every attempted FG, including those where the shooter was fouled but did not make the basket, thus not FGA is recorded, you should expect 1.08 points. For a three point shooter, where fouls in the act of shooting threes are so rare as to be negligible, this requires a 3pt % of ~36%.
by jae on Nov 12, 2009 4:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you
I appreciate that you explain why the simple math I presented isn’t quite accurate and point out where the actual break-even point appears to be statistically.
Do you think this also accounts for the problems that can be created by 3-point shots (ie. they result in long rebounds making them potentially harder to rebound and potentially more likely to lead to a fast break by the other team) or do you think these problems are not significant?
by toddaverth on Nov 12, 2009 5:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think they are significant. No evidence I’ve seen suggests that the “long rebound” does more for one team than the other. What does appear though is that even when the rate of return on 3s is equivalent to that on 2s for a particular team, the apparent “cold spells” with 3s will be more frequent. That’s not surprising. If success is measured as “more than 36% of the time”, that means failure happens 74% of the time. It’s easier to have a string of normal “failure” last and make it appear that something’s wrong than would be the case on a 50-50 proposition.
by jae on Nov 12, 2009 6:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Talking about rebounding, do any shots have any meaningful difference in how often the offense rebounds them, to the point where they should be factored in? I’d actually expect shots closer to the hoop to get rebounded by the offense more often, because it generally means the defense will be out of position….
by Missing Barry on Nov 12, 2009 6:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Everything I’ve seen suggest that no matter where the shot comes from, it’s still about 70-30 defense to offense. So, if you expect 1.08 points per shot, then you expect to make a 2 pointer 54% of the time and a three pointer 36% of the time (as jae said above). However, with the 70-30 rebound ratio when you miss a 2, you expect to make a shot or extend the possession about 67% of the time, when you shoot a 3, you expect to make a shot or extend the 55% of the time. So, when you shoot a three, you expect to have a pointless (no pun intended) 45% of the time, compared to 33% on a two (roughly, this is ignoring what happens after you extend the possession).
Also, jae: You made a minor arithmetic mistake: you expect failure happens on 64% of 3’s :p
by philthiest on Nov 13, 2009 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Regardless of whether your percentages are correct
If the Warriors are involved, you must skew the number 10% against the Warriors.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 15, 2009 4:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The other factor: fast breaks the other way
If you were going to get the same number of points (from made baskets and foul shots) either way, wouldn’t you prefer to make more lower-value shots than fewer higher-value shots?
if you make 3 of 10 3pt shots, you’re getting the same number of points as if you make 6 of 10 two-point shots … but in the former case, the defense has 7 chances to launch a fast break and get easy points, and in the latter only 4.
Obviously, not every missed basket turns into a fast break the other way, but against teams which run a lot I’d be surprised if this effect wasn’t significant.
by Ronaldinho on Nov 15, 2009 11:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
History Lesson
2.) Addition by Subtraction doesn’t work.
I do not think those words mean what you think they mean.
At least, not for the Warriors in the last 15 years. Examples:
The premise that these trades were for “addition by subtraction” is false. Either you merely listed a collection of trades and tried to pass your thesis off without connection or don’t seem to understand what “addition by subtraction” implies.
* Webber —> Draft picks = fail.
I don’t think anyone assumed this was addition by subtraction. It was a situation where the team had allowed themselves to come to an irreconcilable situation with Webber and were trying desperately to get some value back. It was a poor trade. This doesn’t mean that trading Jackson would be a poor trade.
* Sprewell —> Starks/Cummings/Mills = fail.
The alternative? It’s hard to say that this was a failure in terms of how the team did, going from terrible to terrible.
* 10 pick (Terry) —> Mookie Blaylock + Vonteego Cummings = fail.
How exactly is this “addition by subtraction”? Bad trade is not a synonym for “addition by subtraction.”
* Vince Carter
→ Jamison + cash = fail (kinda)
This deal has been hashed and rehashed, but the Warriors never had a shot at Carter. The swap was worked out before the teams drafted and had the Warriors not made the deal, Toronto was ready to take Carter. They swindled GS, with help of Don Nelson, making a claim that there was a deal to send Jamison - the player that GS wanted — to Dallas if the Warriors didn’t make the deal. Were they swindled out of some cash to get Jamison? Yeah. But don’t pretend that Carter was on his way here. He wasn’t. And don’t pretend that this had anything at all to do with addition by subtraction. This is as much an example of “addition by subtraction” as Mickey Mouse is an example of a volcano.
* Jamison —> van exel + Dale Davis = bad.
This deal set up the Baron acquisition, the trade you claim was the good one. The latter could not have happened without the former.
* Al Harrington —> Crawford = bad.
Bad, but not because it was “addition by subtraction.” Bad because it was addition of an extra year of contract for a marginal player who less informed fans have an overly high opinion of despite significant flaws in his game.
* Jason Richardson —> B Wright = bad.
This deal was about cash and getting a big man for an overpaid guard who played a position that is easier to fill. It was not about addition by subtraction. Did it work? The returns on the on-court part haven’t been positive, but that doesn’t mean that trading Jax would be a bad idea any more than the fact that there was a Great Depression in the 1930s means that some people don’t like onions on cheeseburgers.
* Crawford —> Point gaurd potpourri = bad.
Crawford was traded to get out from under his contract. I realize that the NBA-fanboys think that scoring points = great player and love Crawford, but he didn’t regularly help the team win, nor had he ever helped other teams win regularly in the rest of his NBA career.
Your premise seems to be that the Warriors tend to make bad trades therefore they shouldn’t trade anyone.
by jae on Nov 10, 2009 9:22 AM PST reply actions 3 recs
jae
out of the trades i posted, when i look back at it, i realize some don’t work. like vince carter, mookie blaylock, etc.
but not all are spurious. give credit where credit is due: the jrich trade didn’t work. i defended it forever but our sample size is large enough to see that we made a mistake. i’m not atma, i’m not a jrich lover, but we got rid of jrich under the premise that we had other gaurds (ellis) who would be free to make more plays without jrich taking up playing time.
the jamison trade was also done under the premise that losing jamison would allow dunleavy to be free to make more plays lol. though addition by subtraction wasn’t the main reason for the trade, it was justifiable under its premise. yes, it gave us the trading blocks to get davis later, but our team was supposed to compete that year, remember?
losing harrington hurt us. it was widely defended it by saying that getting rid of the malcontent would improve team chemistry.
my premise is that when trades are made either with the objective of “addition by subtraction” or justifiable by “addition by subtraction” our history shows it doesn’t work.
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 9:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
give credit where credit is due: the jrich trade didn’t work. i defended it forever but our sample size is large enough to see that we made a mistake. i’m not atma, i’m not a jrich lover, but we got rid of jrich under the premise that we had other gaurds (ellis) who would be free to make more plays without jrich taking up playing time.
What part of that premise turned out to be false? Even if we set aside Wright’s potential and the cap freedom that trade gave us… Monta was every bit as good as J-Rich in ‘07-’08. The moped incident sure sucked last year, but it’s not like we were a J-Rich away from being competitive… between Jack, Maggette, Morrow and ‘Buike, you’d be hard-pressed to argue we needed a two-guard. We frankly needed Wright a lot more than we needed J-Rich. The fact that he was underplayed and then hurt doesn’t mean he wasn’t a better fit for the team.
Our team got better after losing J-Rich. It then got worse because it lost 1) Baron, 2) Monta and 3) the attention of Nellie. None of those three things have anything to do with J-Rich. And he hasn’t exactly set the world on fire since leaving, himself… neither the Bobcats nor the Suns registered any improvement as a result of adding him.
Our miseries do not by any means prove that the J-Rich trade was a bad one. There isn’t any sort of causal link here.
by onlxn on Nov 10, 2009 9:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The process behind the JRich trade was solid, though I think it’s fair to say the results have been bad for us simply because of Wright’s injuries. Using that to judge a trade is pointless, though, because it just as easily could have been JRich getting hurt…basically, there was no way of knowing how injuries were going to affect the end result, and we simply ended up on the unlucky side.
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 9:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My crystal ball tells me J-Rich would have been hurt, and we would have been overpaying him like crazy, had we kept him. So that proves that J-Rich for Wright haters are wrong. heh heh (Point is, saving money was good in itself and really could have kept J-Rich and been far worse off). Wright, IMO, will do well upon his return. He’ll be cheap and have great trade value.
Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.
by Naticus2 on Nov 10, 2009 6:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i don't know if it's so clear that we got better after losing J-Rich
we didn’t lose much production but we lost depth. baron and stephen jackson each played over 40 games of 40+ minute games. in theory, it shouldnt have happened: we had pietrus, barnes, ellis and etc that should have resulted in little disparity of playing time after jrich left and before. but the reality was nellie kept playing the same players and they ran out of gas at the end.
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 10:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This is true, and that was the one real flaw in Nellie’s otherwise very strong coaching job that year. To be fair, Barnes and Pietrus had weak seasons, and expecting Nellie to play ‘Buike even more than he did would’ve been a little much… we also really struggled when Baron was off the floor. On the other hand, Nellie was very slow to pull Baron and Jack out of games that had been decided. He had some trouble taking his foot off the gas that year.
Would we have been a better team with J-Rich that season? Could be. But I don’t think J-Rich’s presence would’ve lowered Baron’s minutes much… Nellie was already in a position where he could’ve used Monta as a backup PG, and (perhaps smartly) opted against it. The likely consequences of J-Rich’s presence would’ve been more rest for Jack (a big positive) and less playing time for Monta (a big negative), ‘Buike (a small negative) and Pietrus (a small positive). That might’ve given us the four or five extra wins we needed… it also might have made no real difference at all.
More to the point, the front office’s calculus wasn’t, “Will we be better without Jason Richardson?” It was, “Will we still be competitive without Jason Richardson?” And we surely were… we went 48-34 without him. We picked the one year in recent history when that wasn’t enough to make the dance, but I don’t think that reflects badly on the thought process. With or without J-Rich, we were a slightly above-average team with no change to make real noise in the playoffs. And without him, we had more financial freedom, a window for Monta to blossom and an intriguing young big man who’s played well whenever the opportunity has presented itself. I just can’t see that trade as any sort of cautionary tale.
by onlxn on Nov 10, 2009 11:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
See this is the thing that kills me about the typical “view from 30,000 feet” of the JRICH trade (and letting Baron go, and Barnes go…). That team was more than the sum of its parts. Losing JRICH may have made us better on paper and given us some cap flexibility, but it led to the destruction of a team that had guys actually buying into the philosophy; playing not just for themselves but for each other and for the fans. That is something that is very rare in the NBA, and when that situation comes around, you are supposed to foster it, not kill it.
Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!
by Supafishal on Nov 10, 2009 11:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Losing JRich didn’t do anything to kill that. We went out and had the best season we’ve had since Cohan’s owned the team after he was gone. We would have been the 4th seed in the East (without even taking our harder Western Conference schedule into account). Losing JRich did not kill anything special that team had. We continued to be a good team. It only looks badly in retrospect because we put up the best record in history to not make the playoffs, but at the time of the trade, thinking about a situation like that is pointless. Trading JRich, at the time we traded him, did not alter our playoff chances in any meaningful way, and it set us up better for the future. It was a smart move.
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 12:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
“We went out and had the best season we’ve had since Cohan’s owned the team after he was gone”
I will grant that we were great in 2008, and in no way does our failure to make the playoffs change that fact; however, there is little to no evidence that his departure had anything to do with our having the best season in 15 years. There is, in my opinion, a glut of evidence that trading him away ultimately did hurt our team chemistry and served to help “kill anything special that team had.”
Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!
by Supafishal on Nov 10, 2009 1:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh I’m not trying to suggest it was because he was gone. I think he probably would have helped a little bit and even pushed us into the playoffs, I just think it was worth passing that little bit up and trading him for Wright. I’ll just point out there’s not any evidence our “team chemistry” was damaged and losing JRich had any real negative effect, either….
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 3:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that the team had a chemistry problem after he was gone.
Again, our record actually improved, despite getting almost nothing from the guy we traded him for.
That sort of guts the argument that our intangibles were somehow hurt by losing him.
If we were hurt by losing him, it’s because somehow Baron ended up playing more minutes because he was traded. Baron clearly ran out of gas at the end of that season. But really Jason’s minutes went to Jackson and Azubuike, for the most part.
I think that he was a “special” part of that team to the fans, primarily – he was the face we’d been familiar with for the longest time. Most of the key teammaets the year before hadn’t been together very long – Jackson, Ellis, Rich, and of course Baron.
by Ronaldinho on Nov 10, 2009 5:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There was definitely a big
“He’s our boy, we’ve loved him so long and nobody appreciated him. He deserves this.” factor. AB1 still hasn’t gotten over this.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 10, 2009 5:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair, I haven’t fully gotten over that part, either. JRich is probably my favorite Warrior ever, so I was sad to see him go even if I knew it was the right mvoe…
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 8:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Me too...
I was sad at the time. It was, actually, basically what made me finally get an account over here so I could make sense of it all. In the end, I realized/was convinced that a guy like JRich was never worth 40M over the next 3 years, and that any move to jettison that albatross, especially one that netted a top 10 pick, was a good move.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 10, 2009 8:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
the jrich trade for wright was not in any way an attempt to make that team any better. It would have been one thing had that trade actually led to the acquisition of a PF, though I suppose if you believe they were seriously making a Garnett play then you would naturally be more comfortable with the trade. My point is just that trading him away was not an attempt to capitalize on that team’s potential and that was a tragedy.
Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!
by Supafishal on Nov 10, 2009 8:05 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I think the trade was made to make the team better in the long run, but it is a fair point that it was not done to make the team better in the short run, and there’s definitely an argument we had a small window and should have gone for it then. I do believe it was part of a serious attempt at Garnett, though, but also with the fallback plan that it made sense long-term for us if Garnett didn’t work out…
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 8:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
there’s definitely an argument we had a small window and should have gone for it then.
Gone for… what, exactly. A championship was nowhere near within the realm of possibility. We could have “gone for” the #6 seed for 3 years in a row, with maybe another 2nd round foray before getting smacked around by LA, SA, or somebody else who doesn’t suck. It wasn’t that great a team. It just so happened that they snuck into the playoffs and played the ONE top four team they would have actually beaten. A good year, a great year, but still, not a team that was built for achieving anything more than they actually achieved.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 10, 2009 8:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Eh, I think they weren’t that far from being capable of making the WCF. It might take a little bit of luck in the playoff matchups and acquiring one more solid big man in addition to what we had, but I can at least imagine that team making some noise (though they obviously weren’t an actual championship contender).
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 9:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Remember...
That team was a few missed free throws in Utah away from being a very serious WCF contender. I think it is also pretty clear that the acquisition of a real rebounder/defender/post player would have made the difference between 48 wins and playoffs in 2008. Remember that we were literally ONE game away (the Denver loss) from sewing up the eight seed, and what, 5 games away from being in the top four? I can think of 5 games right now that team gave away that year due to sloppy defense and poor effort against bad teams (losing to Minnesota at home on MLK day comes to mind…I remember knowing that would be the loss that kept them out of the playoffs). The fact is, that team WAS close to being special, maybe not a championship team (though with Garnett you have to think they would have had a shot), but certainly the best Warriors team since the 1970’s.
Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!
by Supafishal on Nov 11, 2009 6:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That team was a few missed free throws in Utah away from being a very serious WCF contender.
With horrible free throw shooters like Pietrus, Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, et al, is that really all that surprising? Looking the other way, that team was a few made free throws from a short first round exit, or a “almost ran.”
I can think of 5 games right now that team gave away that year due to sloppy defense and poor effort against bad teams
And there are 5 other that we won that could have easily gone the other way too (win against Dallas at the end of the season when they should have competed comes to mind).
(though with Garnett you have to think they would have had a shot)
Pure dreamland. Maybe not as much as LBJ in ’10! But dreamland nonetheless.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 11, 2009 10:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We could have "gone for" the #6 seed for 3 years in a row, with maybe another 2nd round foray before getting smacked around by LA, SA, or somebody else who doesn’t suck
that would have been heaven compared to what we got.
Standing on the moon
Where talk is cheap and vision true
Standing on the moon
But I would rather be with you
Somewhere in San Francisco
On a back porch in July
Just looking up to heaven
At this crescent in the sky
by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 11, 2009 11:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Just because the ’08 team had a tendency to OVER-perform in big games does not excuse the losses to crummy teams that dragged us down that year.
Garnett: I never seriously believed they had a shot at him, but it’s mainly because I don’t think they actually wanted to keep the team together, not because Garnett would never have come to play here.
I did, and do, expect Baron Davis to knock down big shots in primetime, be they stepback 3’s or freethrows.
Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!
by Supafishal on Nov 11, 2009 11:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We needed to get better at PF, or we were never going to get better than 8th seed again. We can’t count on upsetting the Mavs every year, either.
Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.
by Naticus2 on Nov 10, 2009 6:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What part of that premise turned out to be false?
that it was a good premise turned out to be false. Breaking up a rising team to start over is stupidity.
Standing on the moon
Where talk is cheap and vision true
Standing on the moon
But I would rather be with you
Somewhere in San Francisco
On a back porch in July
Just looking up to heaven
At this crescent in the sky
by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 11, 2009 11:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Usually “rising teams” are ones you expect to get better, no? A team with a 30 year old Baron Davis as it’s focal point is not a rising team.
by Missing Barry on Nov 11, 2009 11:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Cult of Youth has gotten out of control. Veterans tend to win when it counts. Baron’s overall play may have declined, but with the right supporting cast we could have asked less of him physically and actually gotten better.
Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!
by Supafishal on Nov 11, 2009 11:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Baron’s overall play may have declined
Now there’s an understatement. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again – making a long term commitment to Baron Davis is a colossal, franchise-ruining mistake.
by Missing Barry on Nov 11, 2009 11:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll suspend judgement on this, but for now I respectfully disagree with you.
Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!
by Supafishal on Nov 11, 2009 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I don’t particularly feel like getting into this conversation in any sort of detail again, either….
by Missing Barry on Nov 11, 2009 12:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Credit where credit is due? You said that addition by subtraction doesn’t work, then proceeded to list a bunch of trades that weren’t about addition by subtraction.
my premise is that when trades are made either with the objective of "addition by subtraction" or justifiable by "addition by subtraction" our history shows it doesn’t work.
Credit where credit is due: I’ll credit that you made a lousy argument that doesn’t suggest that you even know what “addition by subtraction” means. You listed several trades that had nothing to do with addition by subtraction. I have a hard time taking someone seriously when he doesn’t seem to have a clue what evidence is relevant to his statement and what is not. Much of what you presented is totally irrelevant. I’ll give you credit for that.
It’
by jae on Nov 10, 2009 11:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
lol i'm not asking you to give me credit
stop making things so personal. i meant that you can’t say all the trades are bad examples and then use a different line of reasoning (ie “what could we have done” lol) for each in trying to discredit them. some of them work, you don’t need to win on EVERY trade to prove you’re smarter.
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 2:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Can I say that all the trades were bad examples? No, not all of them. But most of them were. When you make a list claiming that the list as evidence and the list itself contains more items that are not evidence than are, then you don’t have much of an argument.
by jae on Nov 10, 2009 5:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
then don't try?
“The premise that these trades were for "addition by subtraction" is false. Either you merely listed a collection of trades and tried to pass your thesis off without connection or don’t seem to understand what "addition by subtraction" implies.”
“these” refers to “all.” I’m sorry i read too carefully to what you said, i didn’t know you could just change your demonstrative pronouns to fit your whims
also, you made some good points about some of the trades i used as evidence and the ones i agreed with i deleted. however, just cuz you can bring up extentuating circumstances as to why we made these “addition by subtraction” trades (ie spree, webber) doesn’t meant that they are not, inherently, “addition by subtraction” trades. in other words, the remaining “evidence” is pretty legit, and if you ahve a problem with it then i’m sorry but you’re going to either have to find a way to deny that they’re “addition by subtraction” trades or just agree to disagree.
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 5:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I question whether or not you know what the phrase “addition by subtraction” means, as you seem to be all over the map with it. You are most certainly not using it in the manner of the typical sports conversant. “Addition by subtraction” implies that you believe that losing a player will make the team better because that player was himself a negative force holding the team back. I don’t think anyone thought that this was the case with Webber. No one expected the move to be an addition at all, but was an attempt to get something back and minimize the loss. You seem to be using it in a different manner. It makes it very difficult to have a discussion if you have a moving nebulous definition that is common only to you.
The list of trades you provided was not a list of cases of addition by subtraction. The evidence you supplied was faulty. When I see faulty evidence as the support for a proposition, I have no reason to believe it. You provided faulty evidence. I have no reason to believe that your statement has any merit accordingly.
by jae on Nov 10, 2009 8:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
you need to stop jumping around yourself lol
first you say they’re all bad.
then you say you can’t deny all of them as examples of “addition by subtraction”
then you say “The list of trades you provided was not a list of cases of addition by subtraction.” Which means they all don’t work.
like you said before, the “evidence” is not wholly bad. some of them may have been wrong and some falls under a difference of opinion. i wonder why such a divergence of opinion angers you so much. your opinion is not the only one correct, nor are you a sports authority capable of creating narrow definitions that must be strictly adhered to.
but please, a discussion goes two ways and if it’s hard for you to have one with me, PLEASE DON’T. i could care less if you don’t “believe” in my proposition or don’t attach any “merit” to my post. that is your prerogative and perhaps there are others who agree with you. i could care less.
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 10:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
the "evidence" is not wholly bad.
Not wholly, but substantially bad. Bad enough to disregard it as support for your statement.
i wonder why such a divergence of opinion angers you so much. your opinion is not the only one correct, nor are you a sports authority capable of creating narrow definitions that must be strictly adhered to.
I’m not the least bit angry. I do find it hilarious that you believe you’ve made a point and supported it with evidence. I didn’t create the definition of “addition by subtraction”, but I know how the phrase is used. It is very different from what you presented.
by jae on Nov 10, 2009 11:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hardaway, Weber, Sprewell, Harrington and expected Jackson trades
The Hardaway, Weber, Sprewell, Harrington and expected Jackson trades were not “addition by subtraction” in the sense that the team looked at the player and said, “Our team will improve with this player gone.” At least not in a vacuum. They were examples where the team and the player had a significant falling out, causing the player to be essentially worthless to the team so that a trade was necessary. It wasn’t “move the player to let our other guys shine” so much as it was “move the player because it the only way we’ll get anything out of him.”
These are not examples of “addition by subtraction.” They are examples of poor player management. What it shows is you can’t have significant fallouts with players and expect your team to improve. It also shows, when they do happen, you need to find a way to contain the problem so there isn’t a chain reaction.
Hopeful (Richmond,) Hardaway, Weber, Spree isn’t a foreshadowing of (Richardson, Davis,) Harrington, Jackson, Ellis.
by toddaverth on Nov 12, 2009 4:06 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
lol before you go about crushing me with your talent for understated abasement and undeniable logical prowess
let’s get a clear definition of what “addition by subtraction” means.
in my “thesis” (lol) i’m using “addition by subtraction” to mean something like: justifying getting rid of someone with the idea that reducing said someone’s playing time to zero will lead to greater benefits for the team since other, supposedly more capable players were stuck behind that player. and yes, with that definition i put up some bad trades =P probably cuz i was writing more with emotion than with any sense of what my thesis was lol
tbh this definition doesn’t exclude free agency losses and since i think my intent is of a bit larger scope than just trades, i should amend my OP.
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 9:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"thesis" (lol)
In any discussion, the idea you’re arguing is your thesis, whether that idea is regarding the Golden State Warriors’ trade history or Einstein’s theory of relativity. The world becomes much easier to deal with and understand when you realize these fancy terms are really just different ways of saying things… “Thesis” does denote an association with an argument, while “idea” does not.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 10, 2009 10:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Thesis
Mickey Mouse is an example of a volcano
That thesis would have made for a much more interesting discussion IMHO.
I give pressure the reach-around.
by bloodsweatndonuts on Nov 10, 2009 12:44 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Preliminary research indicates … something…

There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Nov 10, 2009 1:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
What in the WORLD??
Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.
by Naticus2 on Nov 10, 2009 6:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
“how Mikky learned to stop worrying and love the bomb”
Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!
by Supafishal on Nov 11, 2009 8:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
it's not that i'm unfamiliar with the word "thesis"
it’s just that it’s pretty clear what my thesis is: don’t trade jackson for the following reasons, 1, 2, 3, 4. I don’t get why i’m having to defend my second point as a thesis, or why the errors in some of the evidence defending that point somehow derails the thesis of my post
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 4:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You really don’t know what errors in the evidence you use to support your point is a problem?
Really?
by jae on Nov 10, 2009 5:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
?
how do you even get to that sort of a conclusion?
let me go through it line by line with you:
my thesis is clear: jackson shouldn’t be traded.
i don’t understand why i’m having to defend my second point as a thesis or why people are claiming that is my thesis. it’s not.
i don’t understand how faulty evidence in my second point derails my entire thesis.
how do you get to the conclusion that i say “i don’t know what errors in the evidence you use to support your point is a problem?” in other words, you’re saying i don’t know what’s wrong with my evidence… what does have to do with anything i just wrote?
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 5:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
jackson shouldn’t be traded
Unless you back that up with reasonable evidence (which you did not), that’s just a hypo-thesis, dood.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 10, 2009 5:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm sorry but "reasonable" is subjective
and i’m sorry but you really should look up the difference between a hypothesis and a thesis
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 5:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think reasonable is subjective. Logic is measurable and analytical. I’m not saying you’re wrong in your thesis. I’m just saying that if it’s reasonable, it can be objectively observed.
Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.
by Naticus2 on Nov 10, 2009 6:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If I have two apples, then I buy two more apples, I'll have five apples
Because 2+2=5.
Main Entry: hy·poth·e·sis
Pronunciation: \hī-ˈpä-thə-səs\
Function: noun
Inflected Form(s): plural hy·poth·e·ses \-ˌsēz\
Etymology: Greek, from hypotithenai to put under, suppose, from hypo- + tithenai to put — more at do
Date: circa 1656
1 a : an assumption or concession made for the sake of argument b : an interpretation of a practical situation or condition taken as the ground for action
2 : a tentative assumption made in order to draw out and test its logical or empirical consequences
3 : the antecedent clause of a conditional statement
I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt here, dood. You may be able to make a reasonable argument to back up your hypothesis that Jax shouldn’t be traded, but up to now, you haven’t.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 10, 2009 6:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
as long as we're debating opinions, which is everything so far in this thread
then the “reasonable”-ness is a matter of your own opinion. that makes it subjective.
so i’m sorry that my arguments are something you find unreasonable. there are others who share your opinions, and of course everyone is entitled to their opinion. but … yeah what are you talking about; hypothesis is not a debased form of a thesis or something, they’re both statements made that are followed by evidence. hypotheses are tested by empirical evidence, theses are more of an opinion based thing.
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 6:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
To restate your argument in as logically concise a manner as possible:
Thesis: Jackson should not be traded.
Premise 1: Emotional rants don’t matter. Jackson is analogous to Kobe.
Premise 2: Addition by subtraction doesn’t work (for Warriors.) See trades as evidence.
Premise 3: Jackson’s skills will not (rapidly) decline with age. Jackson is analogous to Cliff Robinson.
Premise 4: Jackson serves a positive emotional purpose to the team and fans.
First, I’ll grant that none of your premises are intended to rely on each other. I’ll also grant that they each seem to be intended to stand on their own as sufficient reason to keep Jackson. However, if a person sees a flaw in one of your supporting premises the logical thing to do is point it out and show how that weakens the validity of your overall thesis.
Further, it should be noted that in the construction of a multifaceted argument, such as yours here, each of the premises is in fact a thesis in itself, with supporting premises. For example, your first premise with supporting evidence can be logically dissected in this manner:
Thesis: Emotional rants don’t matter. (Jackson is analogous to Kobe.)
Premise 1: Kobe Bryant demanded a trade from the Lakers. It resulted in a trade and the Lakers competed for, then won a championship. Kobe appears to be happy now.
Premise 2: Jackson is like Kobe.
Premise 3: The Warriors are like the Lakers.
A similar view of your second premise (in the parent argument) warrants referring to “Addition by subtraction doesn’t work” as your thesis, as it is a thesis you sought to defend (and rely upon for your argument.)
by toddaverth on Nov 12, 2009 4:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
“Jackson shouldn’t be traded” is really an opinion more than a thesis or a hypothesis.
And without any details regarding “for whom or what,” it’s a pretty silly opinion. For a bag of balls? For Van Exel and Dale Davis? For LeBron James? For Esmé with Love and Squalor?
If the implied “for” is simply “for someone who isn’t as valuable as Jackson,” then it ceases to be a real opinion or thesis or hypothesis and becomes more of a tautology.
In any case, I’m not sure what the debate’s about. I think all of us, including Riley and Nellie, agree: let’s get the best possible return for Jackson. And if we can’t get a decent return, let’s wait it out for a while.
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Nov 10, 2009 6:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
a thesis iis an opinion stated with a brief overview of the evidence to be supplied
a hypothesis is a thesis you test
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 6:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Your premise seems to be that the Warriors tend to make bad trades therefore they shouldn’t trade anyone.
they probably should even be a team
Standing on the moon
Where talk is cheap and vision true
Standing on the moon
But I would rather be with you
Somewhere in San Francisco
On a back porch in July
Just looking up to heaven
At this crescent in the sky
by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 11, 2009 8:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I can see the news headlines in april!!!
“Stephen Jackson requested a trade last off-season as he wanted to go to a contender. That season the Warriors got off to a slow start and now finished the season being 3rd in the Western Conference.”
Believe!
Formally known as PFortyy.
http://www.youtube.com/user/XeroEnt
Watch my Warriors vids and subscribe!
by Xero on Nov 10, 2009 12:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I want some of the drugs you’re taking.
"I never watched baseball on TV. It's slow and boring. I'm not a fan. Never was." - Jeff Kent
by Yoyo on Nov 10, 2009 2:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
who's ur dealer?
You know I spit technique to the freshest freak
Gimme a call you will see results in just a week
With the soul of a LOST HAWK
Is there a heaven for a Rap Cat, let's talk
by LostHawkGSW on Nov 10, 2009 2:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The point is...
HE WANTS TO LEAVE.
It’s not that we want to get rid of him,seriously,what can we do?
keep him here and piss him off even more?
by Cpt. Jack in the Box on Nov 10, 2009 10:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
even though he wants to leave, he's not letting it affect his play.
just cuz a player wants to leave doesn’t mean we have to trade him. if he was hurting the team with his desires, then yeah: for the good of the team, we need to get rid of him. but as of now, it’s my opinion he helps our team more than he hurts it, and we shouldn’t try to accommodate him but think of our team first.
by dso on Nov 10, 2009 10:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Apparently...
his teammates does not want him here anymore.
by Cpt. Jack in the Box on Nov 10, 2009 11:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
According to comments that may have been made by a Warriors player 15 years ago about a completely separate contract issue
An exaggeration, but unnamed sources that are provided without a timestamp can be quoted from 3 weeks ago when Jax was vehemently demanding a trade.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 10, 2009 11:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This is a recent article.
by Cpt. Jack in the Box on Nov 10, 2009 11:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And even if it’s three weeks old, nothing has happened in the interim that should change the substance of it. Did I miss where Jackson rescinded his trade demand, DFiB?
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Nov 10, 2009 11:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nope
But the writer is implying that they’re current statements by using them in a current article, but doesn’t qualify things like “yesterday,” or “2 months ago.” From the article:
Jackson first declared in August he wanted the Warriors to trade him, and his impending departure has become one of a handful of issues hanging over the team.
Stephen Jackson has three years, $28 million on his contract after this season, hurting his trade value.
(NBAE/Getty)
"The Jax situation is a constant distraction," one Warrior said.
"Once they trade him," another player said, "it will clear up a lot of things."
He references August, when Jax made the trade demand. As of just a few weeks ago, the starting lineup wasn’t set at all. Both of these statements were completely reasonable statements of fact at that point. It’s completely rational for Morrow, Azubuike, or Curry to say “Once they trade him, it will clear up a lot of things.” if they were asked, “How’s the Jax situation effect your spot on the team?” before Nellie announced the starting lineups. Said now, they mean something vastly different, and far more volatile. The writer does not tell the reader when these unnamed players said these things. It’s certainly possible that there’s some rift, but I’m just saying, don’t take everything you read at face value.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 11, 2009 10:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My bad
Was just skimming the article. It does seem as though he’s quoting people from Monday, and a quick google search turns up nothing before then. Though the quotes were probably from before the game. Regardless, as we all know he’s out of here as soon as Riley finds something marginally decent in return.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 11, 2009 1:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and the link didn't even show up...
by Cpt. Jack in the Box on Nov 10, 2009 11:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But the quotes from the players need not be "recent" in the way the reader will infer.
Heck, they need not even be about Stephen Jackson:
“Once they trade him, it will clear up a lot of things.” could be taken from the Al Harrington days! Heck, it could even go as far back as the Webber days!
Now, I don’t think the writer would take that much journalistic license, but you get my point, right? Context is key. Without context, quotes mean very little. The quotes supplied provide zero context, and the author does not provide any context for the quotes in his writing. He just uses them.
One knowledgable GSoM blogger just made an interesting statement on the status of Jax’s trade demands:
Jackson rescinded his trade demand
See? I quoted Sleepy out of context, isn’t that fun? Again, I don’t expect that a professional journalist has stooped that low, but the objective of a journalist is to sell newspapers and clicks by whatever means necessary, so don’t take everything you read at face value… especially quotes provided with zero context.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 11, 2009 10:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Jack's gotta go
1. Kobe Bryant is a once in a lifetime type of player. Jackson isn’t. There is no need to work through these problems with such an average talent. The Warriors should try to get some value for him, though.
2. As much as you’d like to deny it, jae handled this pretty well earlier in the thread.
3. I’d like his skills more if he was likely to go one on five.
4. Shouldn’t have been included in the post in the first place.
by Reverend_Randy on Nov 10, 2009 11:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Kobe Bryant is a once in a lifetime type of player.
Now, I’m only in my mid-twenties, but I’ve already had the pleasure of watching a few better wings play than Kobe Bryant. MJ. Magic. Bird. (Only caught the tail end of Bird/Magic). Lebron….so I guess I object to the way you worded that? Agree with the overall point, though.
by Missing Barry on Nov 11, 2009 8:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He didn’t say it had to be a human lifetime.
by jae on Nov 11, 2009 12:13 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Oh, I’m not saying Kobe is the greatest player ever, just that he’s a special sort of player. Probably the second best player in the league right now and was the best for a while.
by Reverend_Randy on Nov 11, 2009 11:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
“Once in a lifetime” implies that we shouldn’t expect to see his equal in a lifetime. We have seen more than his equal. We have seen significantly better players.
by jae on Nov 12, 2009 12:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess you’re right. Kobe Bryant is, in effect, a significantly toned down Michale Jordan.
by Reverend_Randy on Nov 15, 2009 10:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Rec'd it
The only time I see us trading is close to the trade deadline, it’s way too early to assume who should and not go. I personally think at least two of the ball hogs should go: C-Mag, Jax, and Ellis. If we can get a big or a swing that can play D I’m definitely down. But it’s too early to do something drastic.
And great trade history. Imagine if we had C-Webb, Jamison, Agent 0 still…
Welcome to the Warriors, Stephen Curry, the 2009 NBA Rookie of the Year.
Panda's and Curry in the Bey Area. Who would've known?
Conductor of the "We're Back!" Bandwagon!
by ejdacanay on Nov 10, 2009 11:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
What makes people think Monta is a ballhog? He’s leading the team in assists. He’s a very, very good off the ball player. He doesn’t need to dominate the ball to have a huge impact offensively. Where is this coming from?
(Also, we didn’t trade Gilbert. The Wizards stole him by exploiting a loophole in the CBA, which has since been closed by the “Gilbert amendment”.)
by Missing Barry on Nov 11, 2009 8:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If you use assists as a way to measure sharing the ball then S-Jax had 15 the other day, so that must mean he doesn’t hog at all. I’ve watched all the games so far this year and once Monta, Jax, or Mag are “feeling” it they will hog the ball. In two of the blowouts I saw I see Monta and Jax take the ball coast to coast or not even rotate it on at least 3 consecutive possessions. Sure, Monta is leading the team with assists (He’s actually tied with Curry), but he also leads with 101 shot attempts (18 more then Jax and 37 over the 3rd most shot taker, Kelenna) and that’s with a 43.6 Shooting Percentage. He’s also leading the team in turnovers.
Welcome to the Warriors, Stephen Curry, the 2009 NBA Rookie of the Year.
Panda's and Curry in the Bey Area. Who would've known?
Conductor of the "We're Back!" Bandwagon!
by ejdacanay on Nov 11, 2009 10:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
once Monta, Jax, or Mag are "feeling" it they will hog the ball.
And once Morrow is feeling it, he’ll jack up shots left and right. Jax was certainly “feeling it” in game 4 against Dallas, but you weren’t complaining then. Monta is our best player, and Maggette scores efficiently. I don’t see any problem with them dominating the ball when they’re in the game. A lot of those misses are of the “mid ranger jumper” variety. Are you really upset about Monta taking 15 foot jumpers?
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 11, 2009 11:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And once Morrow is feeling it, he’ll jack up shots left and right.
56% Shooting Percentage. Why would I complain about that?
Jax was certainly "feeling it" in game 4 against Dallas, but you weren’t complaining then.
O yea? Then I wouldn’t even have Jax on my ballhog list. Actually I would have him on my Saints list if he wasn’t a hog.
Seeing Monta take it to the hole against 3, 4, and even 5 defenders is idiotic and I’ve seen that at least half a dozen times. I don’t mind him taking those mid range jumpers as long as he can hit em or rotate the ball beforehand. I’ve seen him, once again, take the ball from sideline to sideline without even passing the ball just to take a mid range jumper with 15 seconds left on the shot clock. Monta isn’t alone at this as Jackson does this plenty.
Welcome to the Warriors, Stephen Curry, the 2009 NBA Rookie of the Year.
Panda's and Curry in the Bey Area. Who would've known?
Conductor of the "We're Back!" Bandwagon!
by ejdacanay on Nov 11, 2009 11:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Woops meant baseline to baseline
Welcome to the Warriors, Stephen Curry, the 2009 NBA Rookie of the Year.
Panda's and Curry in the Bey Area. Who would've known?
Conductor of the "We're Back!" Bandwagon!
by ejdacanay on Nov 11, 2009 11:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I think it’s more than fair to say Jack wasn’t ballhogging at all and was unselfishly creating for his teammates last game, and that’s why he racked up all those assists. As for Monta, it’s a good thing he’s getting a lot of shot attempts. I’m inclined to look at his career %‘s more than his % this year 6 games into the season, and his past shows him to be an efficient scorer. I’ve also seen Ellis average 20 points per game for a season while rarely having the ball in his hands as a creator (2007-2008), which looks like great proof to me he plays incredibly well off the ball and doesn’t need to hog it. Maybe so far this year he’s tried to do too much, that’s fine, like I said, we’re 6 games into the season – he should start figuring out what his best role on a winning team is. Given his past history of not dominating the ball, nor needing the ball in his hands often to be very effective, I think it’s completely unfair to call him a ballhog based on 6 games.
by Missing Barry on Nov 11, 2009 11:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well like I said in my OP, the sample size is too small to trade anyone whether it be Jax, Ellis, AR, Wright or whomever. But I’ve stated already what I’ve seen from Monta and I don’t like it. Jackson did the same thing last year, put up pretty good (and career) numbers while trying to do extra for an inept and Monta-less team, but that wasn’t appreciated by anyone as he was thrown under the bus.
Welcome to the Warriors, Stephen Curry, the 2009 NBA Rookie of the Year.
Panda's and Curry in the Bey Area. Who would've known?
Conductor of the "We're Back!" Bandwagon!
by ejdacanay on Nov 11, 2009 5:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
once Monta, Jax, or Mag are "feeling" it they will hog the ball.
which is exactly what a guy who’s “feeling” it should do. If they aren’t making the shots then obviously they weren’t “feeling” it.
Standing on the moon
Where talk is cheap and vision true
Standing on the moon
But I would rather be with you
Somewhere in San Francisco
On a back porch in July
Just looking up to heaven
At this crescent in the sky
by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 11, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
Did you see how well Buike did when he was feeling it?
by Reverend_Randy on Nov 11, 2009 11:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah yes, the old “feeling it” myth. A guy “feeling it” is an explanation of the past – trying to explain why he got hot for a short period. It has no bearing on the future. If a guy is having a good day shooting the ball so far, it doesn’t mean he’s likely to continue shooting the ball well (unless he’s shooting well for the simple fact that the defense sucks and leaves him open, or something). Basically, the evidence for “hot streaks” is non-existant, and there’s actually evidence they don’t exist, so as long as all outside variables like defense are roughly the same, you shouldn’t alter your strategy because a guy is doing well, because you can’t expect the player to continue doing well.
by Missing Barry on Nov 12, 2009 7:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A guy "feeling it" is an explanation of the past – trying to explain why he got hot for a short period. It has no bearing on the future.
You’ve obviously never felt it :>) if you had you’d know that one can feel when they are on and fell when they are off, the quality of defense is a separate issue, sometimes we play better than others and if we know what kind of day we are having as it proceeds we can help our teams by taking the shots or not depending on if we are feeling it.
Standing on the moon
Where talk is cheap and vision true
Standing on the moon
But I would rather be with you
Somewhere in San Francisco
On a back porch in July
Just looking up to heaven
At this crescent in the sky
by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 12, 2009 11:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thing is, Skep, you and the Reverend Randy have no clue whether or not a player was “feeling it.” You’re using circular logic to conclude that if they made a high percentage, well then, they must have been “feeling it.” There’s no way to refute such an argument. Indeed, it isn’t argument at all: since you have essentially defined “feeling it” as “making a lot of shots,” all you’re doing is saying “A=A.” In high-falootin’ terms, this kind of pointless repetition is called tautology. You could also call it a Yogi Berra-ism (along the lines of “you can observe a lot by watching things”). Or, if you’re feeling less charitable: wasting everyone’s time.
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Nov 12, 2009 12:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I see where you are coming from regarding Skeptics argument: we can’t know what the player was feeling, but this does not support your argument that there is no reason to feed the hot hand.
Granted, you qualified that premise with a classic “all things being equal” style disclaimer, but it is important to note that all things are not equal. In reality, if a guy is hitting his shots you should go back to him. It doesn’t matter if he is hitting his shots because he is on or because the defense is horrible or because Skeptic said the magic words. If he is hitting his shots, he’s hitting his shots – take advantage of that until you see some evidence that it is going to change.
by toddaverth on Nov 12, 2009 4:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
this does not support your argument that there is no reason to feed the hot hand.
Where did I make that argument? What I was trying to do was chastise Skep for his circular logic that if a player was making his shots, he must have been “feeling it.” If “feeling it” is simply a synonym for “making shots,” doesn’t it make sense to use the expression that deals in observable reality rather than armchair psychoanalysis?
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Nov 12, 2009 6:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
p.s.
I don’t really feel like arguing it, but it has been argued plenty of times that the “hot hand” is a myth.
The gulf between science and sports may never loom wider than in the case of the hot hands.
Those who play, coach or otherwise follow basketball believe almost universally that a player who has successfully made his last shot or last few shots – a player with hot hands – is more likely to make his next shot. An exhaustive statistical analysis led by a Stanford University psychologist, examining thousands of shots in actual games, found otherwise: the probability of a successful shot depends not at all on the shots that come before.
To the psychologist, Amos Tversky, the discrepancy between reality and belief highlights the extraordinary differences between events that are random and events that people perceive as random. When events come in clusters and streaks, people look for explanations; they refuse to believe they are random, even though clusters and streaks do occur in random data.
‘’Very often the search for explanation in human affairs is a rejection of randomness,’’ Dr. Tversky said.
To understand attitudes about streakiness in basketball, Dr. Tversky and his researchers interviewed many ‘’real mavens’’ of the sport, as well as players and basketball statisticians. The more intimately their subjects knew the game, the more firmly they believed in hot hands.
To test the theory, the researchers got the records of every shot taken from the field by the Philadelphia 76ers over a full season and a half. When they looked at every sequence of two shots by the same player – hit-hit, hit-miss, miss-hit or miss-miss – they found that a hit followed by a miss was actually a tiny bit likelier than a hit followed by a hit.
They also looked at sequences of more than two shots. Again, the number of long streaks was no greater than would have been expected in a random set of data, with every event independent of its predecessor.
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/course/Syllabi/96Dartmouth/hothand.html
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Nov 12, 2009 6:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry
I see that I misread this passage:
If a guy is having a good day shooting the ball so far, it doesn’t mean he’s likely to continue shooting the ball well (unless he’s shooting well for the simple fact that the defense sucks and leaves him open, or something).
Perhaps because it was followed by this one:
so as long as all outside variables like defense are roughly the same, you shouldn’t alter your strategy because a guy is doing well, because you can’t expect the player to continue doing well.
My point is it is a good idea to go with what is working, even if the explanation for why it is working is faulty. (Of course, having a better understanding of why it is working will help you recognize when you need to adjust. It’s worth noting when the double-teams start coming, etc.)
by toddaverth on Nov 12, 2009 9:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My point is it is a good idea to go with what is working, even if the explanation for why it is working is faulty.
Well, here’s the thing:
If a guy hits three shots in a row, is that because there’s something going on in the game which is giving him an advantage, or is it because things are normal and he’s having a statistically-expected three-shot streak?
Personally, I think people tend to mistake the latter for the former a lot, and this is why people always want to feed the hot hand.
But a good coach or PG will recognize when there is something going on, and find ways to exploit it. And there’s very little downside to going to the guy who has the hot hand (results being, for the most part, independent, he’s not MORE likely to miss this next shot because he made the last three) so some error in that direction is probably fine.
by Ronaldinho on Nov 12, 2009 10:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
he’s not MORE likely to miss this next shot because he made the last three
Plus, he’s also more likely to be a good shooter if he made the last three, and the point is your strategy should be to get your good shooters to shoot the ball…
by Missing Barry on Nov 13, 2009 7:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Though the studies indicate that preceding made baskets lead to subsequent misses at an ever so slightly greater rate. This could be that even good shooters tend to shoot a bit more freely when they “feel it” such that they start to believe they can make shots that they really can’t and take them, or it could be that after a series of makes, the defense adjusts. But nonetheless, depending on the “hot hand” to indicate who you should get the ball to has drawbacks.
by jae on Nov 13, 2009 9:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
preceding made baskets lead to subsequent misses at an ever so slightly greater rate.
Could it just be “regression to the mean” or an artifact of the data? I mean, every streak has to end. Isn’t it likely that there is a corresponding trend that “preceding [missed shots] lead to subsequent [made baskets] at an ever so slightly greater rate” simply because the longer the streak goes, the more it will effect the overall shooting percentage that is viewed as the mean?
by toddaverth on Nov 13, 2009 10:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn’t it likely that there is a corresponding trend that "preceding [missed shots] lead to subsequent [made baskets] at an ever so slightly greater rate"
This does not appear to be the case.
by jae on Nov 13, 2009 11:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
odd
It would be interesting to see how that was determined.
It would imply that repeatedly shooting can be expected to actually lower your overall shooting percentage, regardless of whether you are currently hitting your shots.
by toddaverth on Nov 13, 2009 12:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It would imply that repeatedly shooting can be expected to actually lower your overall shooting percentage
depends if you started off hot or started off cold. One will cause the percentage to fall with more shots and the other will cause it to rise.
Standing on the moon
Where talk is cheap and vision true
Standing on the moon
But I would rather be with you
Somewhere in San Francisco
On a back porch in July
Just looking up to heaven
At this crescent in the sky
by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 13, 2009 3:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I think I messed that logic up. But my brain is far enough mixed up by it now that I’m having trouble getting it straight. The fact that there is a downward trend to the probability of hitting a repeated shot in one case without a corresponding upward trend in hitting repeated shots in the other is a little counter intuitive for me.
by toddaverth on Nov 14, 2009 2:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The fact that there is a downward trend to the probability of hitting a repeated shot in one case without a corresponding upward trend in hitting repeated shots in the other is a little counter intuitive for me.
cause it is not true. The chances vary depending on the state at the time you project them. a bad guy hot or a good guy cold will give different projections.Trust your intuition once you absorbed the arguments.
Standing on the moon
Where talk is cheap and vision true
Standing on the moon
But I would rather be with you
Somewhere in San Francisco
On a back porch in July
Just looking up to heaven
At this crescent in the sky
by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 14, 2009 3:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m unclear why regression to the mean would cause a lower than average shooting percentage? The general concept of regression to the mean is a player is performing higher or lower than their true average, and can be expected to play at their true average in the future. The larger the sample size of future average play gets, the closer their total results get to this “true average”.
by Missing Barry on Nov 13, 2009 1:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A player on a hot streak is by definition shooting above their “normal shooting percentage.” regression to the mean would require that at some point in time before you calculated the “normal shooting percentage” there were missed shots that defined the beginning and end of that hot streak, as well as counteracted its upward pull on the overall shooting percentage. Unless the hot streak happens at the very end of your data set – so you already have the requisite number of misses to define your “normal shooting percentage” – than the fact that you are on a hot streak makes it increasingly likely that your next shot will be a miss. This is an artifact of the process of observation, with its necessary defining of the “normal shooting percentage.” In the moment the shot is being taken no “normal shooting percentage” has been established (that is quite valid for that moment.)
by toddaverth on Nov 14, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well I'm assuming that the baseline strategy for the team ...
… is to have its good shooters shoot.
But you shouldn’t change your mind about who a good shooter is just because he hit a few in a row.
by Ronaldinho on Nov 13, 2009 10:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The baseline strategy for the team should be to have it’s good shooters shoot in situations where they are more likely to succeed. A good shooter shooting in a bad situation may be much worse than a comparatively bad shooter shooting in a good situation.
I agree with the general sentiment of your post though. Good point (to all of you) about not changing opinions of players based on a small, mid-game sample.
by toddaverth on Nov 13, 2009 10:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You’ve obviously never felt it
More like, I’m not an NBA player. I’ve played a lot of basketball, don’t get me wrong, but what I’ve done pales in comparison to the amount of work these guys have put into their game and their shots and abilities. There are times when I might “feel it” because I get my elbow slot locked in (similar to a pitcher like Jonathan Sanchez, I’ve always had trouble keeping my arm slot consistent when I shoot), but the thing is, if I was as good as an NBA player, I’d have enough practice to get to the point where I don’t have that mechanical issue. Guys like Morrow, Allen, Nash, Kapono, Mullin, Kerr, Price…whatever other good shooters you want to name – their mechanics are flawless and repeated perfectly basically every single time (or at least perfect enough that they don’t ever really go into mechanically caused slumps or hot sreaks). That’s why they can shoot like they can, and I cannot. You’re ignoring the inherent survivor bias present in NBA players when you say things like that. They are not like you and me.
by Missing Barry on Nov 12, 2009 12:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There are times when I might "feel it" because I get my elbow slot locked in
ok, if you recognize that then that’s when you should be shooting more. The NBA guys still feel it, just at a higher level. Everyone plays at a better or worse from level day to day, the smart ones recognize what kind of day they are having and go for it or defer as the case may be.
Standing on the moon
Where talk is cheap and vision true
Standing on the moon
But I would rather be with you
Somewhere in San Francisco
On a back porch in July
Just looking up to heaven
At this crescent in the sky
by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 12, 2009 4:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Again, there’s some pretty good evidence that shots taken are independent of other shots. As Sleepy posted, there’s evidence “hot streaks” don’t exist, so there’s no reason to alter your strategy ever, because no matter how you’ve been shooting you can expect to shoot the way you normally do for your next shot, unless you can come up with actual evidence they do exist?
I also like how you seem to claim some expertise on how NBA players feel….
by Missing Barry on Nov 12, 2009 6:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"Feeling it" cause and effect
I think a lot of people experience “feeling it” but they get it wrong. “Feeling it” doesn’t cause the shot to go in … rather, it is CAUSED by the shot going in.
eg, how often have you nailed three shots in a row and NOT felt it? It feels good to make a couple of shots in a row, and we justify it to ourselves ex post facto.
Similarly, if you miss three shots in a row which you would normally expect yourself to make, it’s hard to not feel negatively about how you’re shooting. It doesn’t mean that you’re doing anything different in how you’re shooting the ball.
All hot streaks end. We’ve all been that guy – or passed to that guy – who’s hitting everything and site, and it seems like he can’t miss … until he does. Yet he gunned up that last shot because he was still “feeling it” from his earlier makes.
by Ronaldinho on Nov 12, 2009 1:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"Imagine if we had C-Webb, Jamison, Agent 0 still..."
Umm…we’d be paying a lot in medical bills?
Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!
by Supafishal on Nov 11, 2009 8:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What does
Mike Fox have to say about this? I wonder…..
by Trakrunner on Nov 12, 2009 2:46 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
We have to ..
Ever since Baron’s departure, Jack will never stay a Warrior, or at least help us win.
Add Harrington to that too, he doesn’t want to be a Warrior anymore.
No point keeping a player who CLEARLY doesn’t like playing for your team.
7
by AlbinoWhale on Nov 12, 2009 12:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Excellent write up!!!
The mentality of so many Warrior fans is one of delusion towards the abilities of the home teams players. Warrior fans take “overHype” to a new level. So many heads are stuck in the azz of the future / potential that they don’ t accurately see a player’s ability. Things can change quick. Just ask the Celtics, who went from last to champs in a year.
Like it or not, Jackson is arguably the BEST PLAYER ON THE TEAM! No other player has his combo skill set of: intangibles, experience, grit, 20ppg ability, passing, and defense. We know how good Jax can be. A guy who was clutch in the playoffs (unlike Monta’s choke), a guy who’s won an Nba championship, a guy who’s a competitor. Also, just an FYI, Ellis, Maggette, & Biedrins all have MORE expensive contracts than his. Just something to keep in mind.
Making a rushed trade that gets us less than good value for Jax is just going to be De Ja Vu of the 90’s. The likes of Guges and Bimbo. I have zero respect for Warriors fans who boo Jackson, who booed Baron…guys that have contributed the most to resurrecting this sorry azz franchise. Any and all boos should be directed to Mr. Cohan, Mr. Rowell, and Mr. Nelson. Those guys, with or without Jackson being here, represent dysfunction, ineptness, destruction, and greed. The absolutely unnecessary and preventable personnel moves they’ve made to dismantle the “we believe” team, is all the evidence any fan should need to see that they clearly have zero clue of what they’re doing, zero will to win, and zero respect for their loyal, but sometimes stupid, fans.
by RowellMustGo on Nov 13, 2009 12:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
When we traded Al for Crawford.....
I won’t necessarily call it bad.
Crawford gave us what Al brought to the team plus a bit more.
by Richboievans on Nov 15, 2009 3:53 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I really think we got slaughtered in that trade. Both are mediocre players, but Al played a bigger position of need for us, and Jamal was redundant even when our roster was at its most battered… Al’s contract is now an attractive trade chip, and Jamal’s is not. The FO did well in dumping Jamal for ‘10 expirings, but Speedy and Law’s contracts don’t add up to as much as Al’s does, they take up two roster spots instead of one, and while Law’s been nice and spunky thus far, I don’t think he’s as useful as Al.
Really, the basketball consequences of Al’s departure have been a bit underdiscussed here. Al’s not a very good player, but as a semi-passable four who could run and shoot threes, he fit very well with what Nellie was trying to do. Since Al left, Nellie has tried to cast other guys as Al role without much success: Maggette doesn’t shoot threes well enough to space the floor, Jack doesn’t rebound nearly well enough, and they both have 25-30 fewer pounds to use against fours in the post. We can only hope that, when everyone’s healthy, Nellie will finally stop trying to re-create Al and go to war with our pretty good young traditional fours instead.
Al: mediocre player, great fit, great contract. Jamal: mediocre player, terrible fit, bad contract. That was a loser of a trade.
by onlxn on Nov 15, 2009 4:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

by 


















