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Maggette or: How I learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Ballhog

Now that it's settled that the Warriors are going to challenge the '72-'73 76ers for the worst record in history, we should start assigning blame. Naturally, there's a lot to go around. I think (hope) everyone can agree that Stephen Curry and Kelenna Azubuike have played exceptionally well this season. Anthony Morrow has seemed to struggle at times, but that seems to be more that the secret is out that he can shoot, and he has to adjust to his new found attention. Turiaf has played like we expect him to play, with energy and enthusiasm, but not much skill. Biedrins has struggled to find his place on offense this season; he is still an efficient finisher but he's turning the ball over more and not getting as many offensive boards prior seasons. Randolph has had inconsistent play during inconsistent minutes, and seems to be showing some lingering affects from his injured lower back injury.

Star-divide

That leaves three players who have played significant minutes: Stephen Jackson, Monta Ellis, and Corey Maggette. Each of these players deserve some blame for the Warriors poor start. Jackson has already tried to sabotage the season before it began with his trade demand, and his on court play has left a lot to be desires. He's averaging 15 points, but his TS% stands at .488, and he's averaging a stellar 2 boards, 3 assists and 3 turnovers. Ellis is scoring points (averaging 22.5 points per game) but doing so by using up a lion's share of the teams possessions, his usage rate 30.8% (for comparison, Lebron James is 30.9%). He also has shot poorly, turned the ball over a lot, and not gotten his teammate involved (averaging just 4 assists). Both Ellis and Jackson have not only played poorly, but they have undermined the teams chemistry- Jackson's trade request and Ellis straight up saying he and Curry playing together won't work.

However, neither of them has gotten the amount of blame or hate as Corey Maggette. Maggs is closing in on the Armando Benitez zone as far as fan approval goes. For those of you who follow the Giants, you should know this idea well. For those of you who don't follow the Giants, Armando Benitez was the highly paid and highly ineffective closer for the Giants from 2005 to 2007. He kept finding new and unique ways to blow saves and get booed off the field until the Giants management had no choice but to trade him for a journeyman reliever, 3 goats and a 6-pack of Heineken. That's where Maggette is heading. He has shot poorly (.374 TS%), increased his reputation for being a ball hog (usage rate of 29.2), turned the ball over way too much (19.1 turnover rate), and he is getting playing time that could go to golden boy Anthony Randolph. Also, I believe that Maggette clubs baby seals in the off-season. He obviously is the biggest problem with the Warriors this year and deserves the majority of the blame.

There's only one problem with this: The Warriors have played better with Maggette in the game than they do with him on the bench. Much better.

In 2 games, the Maggette has played 43 minutes. In those 43 minutes, the Warriors have had 96 offensive possesions and 98 defensive possessions. They've scored 97 points and allowed 100. If we weight this for 100 possesions to give Maggette an on court offensive and defensive rating, we get an ORate of 101.04 and a DRate of 102.04, meaning that when Maggette is on the court, the Warriors lose by 1 point per 100 possessions. This doesn't sound good until you remember the Warriors as a team lose by 11 points per 200 possessions. Also, when Maggette is on the bench (which has been 53 minutes) the Warriors have played 112 possessions and scored 111 points while their opponents have played 110 possessions and scored 131 points. If we once again find an offensive and defensive rating per 100 possessions, we get an off-court ORate of 99.11 and an off-court DRate of 119.09. So when Maggette is out of the game, the Warriors lose by nearly 20 points. If we combine this with his on-court numbers, we get the the Warriors are 19 points better with Maggette on the court than with him off it.

So, if Maggette is shooting the ball poorly and turning the ball over, why are we better off with him in the game?

As noted earlier, it isn't his offense. He's shot the ball often and poorly and turned it over. He is even getting to the line slightly less this year. Of course, offense only accounts for half the game of basketball. Is is possible the Maggette is a great defender and we don't realize it?

PLAYER                        MIN
Maggette, Corey, GSW	    43.77  
OVERALL
ON           OFF      NET
-1.00        -19.98    18.98
OFFENSE
ON          OFF       NET
101.04      99.11     1.93
DEFENSE
ON          OFF       NET
102.04      119.09    -17.05

Offensively, the Warriors are slightly better when Maggette is in the game. Defensively, the Warriors are much, much worse when his NOT in the game.

Another main reason that Maggette finds himself as the target of so much hatred is that he is seen as impeding the progress of superstar in the making, and possibly the second coming of Christ, Antony Randolph. This is observation is true, Maggette has not played once this season with two other big men on the floor (which I guess would make him the power forward, but positions are pretty hard to determine with this team). However, Randolph has seen a fair amount of playing time, but the results haven't been great:

PLAYER                          MIN
Randolph, Anthony, GSW 	      34.70
OVERALL
ON      OFF     NET
-25.64	-2.31	-23.33
OFFENSE
ON      OFF     NET
96.15	102.31	-6.15
DEFENSE
ON      OFF     NET
121.80	104.62	17.18

What's the point of all this? I don't know. It's not that Maggette is the savior of this franchise. He's not. It's not that Randolph sucks. He doesn't. I think it's more that hating on Maggette is kind of pointless, especially when him being on the court has a direct correlation with the Warriors playing well.

Actually, I think the real point is this: It's only been two games!

Poll
So, do you still think Maggette is to blame for the Warriors bad start?
No. I see the error of my ways and am now backing Maggette for Defensive Player of the Year.
17 votes
Yes. I don't need numbers and stats to lie to me. I watch the game and see that Maggette is awful.
40 votes
Wait, you're trying to convince me with numbers that are highly affected by the other nine players on the floor with just two games of data? What the hell man?! This whole post is stupid, as is calling this whole season over after two games.
52 votes

109 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

3 recs  |  Comment 25 comments

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Is the 76ers reference sarcasm??

Maggs is to much of a ball hog. I don’t mid a ball hog who is effective like a Monta but one who is not effective at all is awful. Randolph is the better player by far.

Rookie: "Why did you bench me?"
Nellie: "You're a rookie"

by dubzfan on Nov 4, 2009 2:08 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

This post is half sarcasm, half serious. Only problem is, I’m not entirely sure which is which.

Ellis is an interesting case study. When he’s on the court, the Warriors have played awful this year. It’s obvious that this little experiment with him at point guard isn’t going well. Curry, on the other hand, has been a great asset for the Warriors this year. If he keeps playing like this, any questions about his point guard skills should be put to rest soon.

by philthiest on Nov 4, 2009 2:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I love how you say

“this season” and Morrow struggling “at times” as if you weren’t referring to only 2 games…

by lilboots on Nov 5, 2009 6:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It’s way too early in the season to be using plus/minus stats as an indicator of anything.

But for what it’s worth, since Maggette signed here, his plus/minus rating is a big fat -4.35 (adjusted for the other players on the court as well). That’s the worst on this team, excluding fan favorite Devean George.

Even with the possibility of a large standard error, he’s still been a net negative for us since he’s gotten here.

Maggette at PF doesn’t work, sorry Don Nelson! Your dream has become our nightmare.

"We Deserve"

by YaHeard on Nov 4, 2009 3:20 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

The Warriors will start winning some games

When the vets decide to buy in to Curry as our PG. I recall from both games that when Curry was bringing the ball up and running the offense, good things happened. On the other hand, when Jackson or Ellis bring the ball up, it becomes a one dimensional one on one brickfest. Hopefully the change comes soon

by Pearlsofwisdom on Nov 4, 2009 3:35 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

For the love of basketball statistics!

Can we pretty, pretty, pretty please stop using 40 mintues of game time to make judgements on whether Brandon Jennings is better than Stephen Curry, Corey Maggette is better than Anthony Randolph, or FRIGGHING ANYTHING!!!!

Sorry for yelling. But seriously, please, please, please do not waste your time trynig to analyze the season statistics right now. For instance:

Andris Biedrins is averaging 88% on field goals!!! He’s AWESOME!!!
Gerald Wallace is averaging 14 RPG! (Career 5.5RPG player)
Eric Dampier leads the league in blocks per game!
Marc Gasol is averaging an obscene 2.05PPS!

All of these numbers will normalize over the season, so don’t get too excited about the statistics yet.

You have been DFiBrillated.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 4, 2009 3:56 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

I 100%, Absolutely, Completely Agree

Everything regresses toward the mean over a large enough sample size. Numbers based on two games are utterly meaningless in the grand scheme of things.
However, this is to the people who are shouting from the rooftops “WHY IS NELLIE PLAYING MAGGETTE OVER RANDOLPH?!?!?” It’s simply that in two games, when Randolph has gone into the game, the Warriors have played worse. When Maggette has gone in, the Warriors have played better. This is in NO WAY indicative of future events. It is simply a fact.
My gut reaction from watching 96 minutes of Warrior basketball (about 36 of which have been absolutely painful), is that Ellis and Randolph especially are trying to do too many things, and are hurting the team because of it.
Tonight’s game should be interesting. A four game break this early in the season has seemed really out of place, and it will be interesting to see if the Warriors have used this time to re-evaluate and address their numerous problems, or if they’re just going to stand pat and continue to suck.

by philthiest on Nov 4, 2009 4:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

this is to the people who are shouting from the rooftops "WHY IS NELLIE PLAYING MAGGETTE OVER RANDOLPH?!?!?"

Fair enough, but your target audience is not going to read this. They’ll see numbers and gloss over. Jump to the comments and regurgitate the “WHY IS NELLIE PLAYING MAGGETTE OVER RANDOLPH?!?!?” Sad, but true.

Ellis definitely looks like he’s trying to do too much, but I’ve also seen a lot of missed jumpers that my gut tells he he should be taking and making. If the jumper comes back around, he won’t look like he’s trying to do too much. Excited for tonight.

You have been DFiBrillated.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 4, 2009 5:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t see anything in these numbers that tells me why Maggette commits fouls and takes 20 foot jump shots at the most inopportune times.

Also, if you’re going to use these stats, then here’s two:

Anthony Randolph – Difference in Defensive Rebound Rate Net: 33.14%

Corey Maggette – Difference in Defensive Rebound Rate Net: -18.91%

by samuraaaaiiiiiii on Nov 4, 2009 6:05 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

You're right

None of the numbers tell you why Maggette “commits fouls and takes 20 foot jump shots at the most inopportune times.” I don’t think any numbers will tell you WHY Maggette does those things. What these numbers DO tell you is that the Warriors play bad with Maggette in the lineup (-1 point per 200 possessions) but they play REALLY bad without him in the lineup (-19 points per 200 possessions).
Last time I checked, basketball games weren’t decided by who gets the most rebounds*. They are decided by who scores the most points. That said, the numbers you posted are much more predictive. They show why we shouldn’t give up on Randolph after two games. The numbers I gave tell you what has actually happened, they tell you that Maggette has helped the team more than Randolph through the first two games.

*Rebounds do however have a very strong correlation to winning basketball. Not as strong, however, as outscoring your opponent.

by philthiest on Nov 4, 2009 6:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok, I will concede that the numbers through two games showed that Maggette helped the team more than Randolph. However, I still won’t concede that Maggette is a good defender.

I don’t know what the stats say about tonights game, but I’m just glad that Maggette fouled out with a few minutes left in the game. The Grizzlies were showing signs of life, mostly because of inopportune Maggette jumpers, turnovers, and bad fouls. In fact in the 4th quarter prior to fouling out, Maggette had 0 points (0-3 all jump shots), 2 turnovers, and 4 fouls.

by samuraaaaiiiiiii on Nov 4, 2009 11:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I still won’t concede that Maggette is a good defender.

He’s certainly not a good Zach Randolph defender, and he’s pretty poor against most PFs. Against SFs, it becomes more debatable.

In fact in the 4th quarter prior to fouling out, Maggette had 0 points (0-3 all jump shots), 2 turnovers, and 4 fouls.

In fact, in the first 3 quarters, Maggette had 20 points on 9-14 FGs, 3 rebounds, a steal, and only 2 fouls. That’s not too shabby! You win some, you lose some. You take the good with the bad.

On the flip side, in Randolph’s 7 minutes he scored 4 points, but had 3 fouls, and he grabbed 3 rebounds, but turned the ball over twice. At that rate, he’d foul out in 14 minutes and give up 11 turnovers in 36 minutes! Small sample size? Sure. But you’re the one bashing Corey Maggette for 9 minutes of playing time.

Seriously though, anybody have any word on Randolph’s back? Is it still bothering him?

You have been DFiBrillated.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 4, 2009 11:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

In fact, in the first 3 quarters, Maggette had 20 points on 9-14 FGs, 3 rebounds, a steal, and only 2 fouls. That’s not too shabby! You win some, you lose some. You take the good with the bad.

In regards to the above:

why Maggette commits fouls and takes 20 foot jump shots at the most inopportune times

I was just defending my previous statement, that Maggette is not someone you want in the game when it’s crunch time. I’ll accept that he played well until it counted the most, when we were trying to hold onto the lead at the end.

by samuraaaaiiiiiii on Nov 4, 2009 11:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I was just defending my previous statement, that Maggette is not someone you want in the game when it’s crunch time. I’ll accept that he played well until it counted the most, when we were trying to hold onto the lead at the end.

And Randolph played so poorly in the non-crunch time that he did play in that there’s no way he should see PT in crunch time. He’d probably have been so excited to get out there he would have jacked up a few shots early in the clock and puppyloved Zach Randolph to the line and himself to the bench. The argument is not that Maggette is the best player ever, so stop trying to make it so. It’s that he’s better than Randolph for this Warriors team, right now. Your predictive rebounding projections are not reflective of actual performance and effect on the game to this point in the season. I suspect that will change, but Randolph needs to settle down a TON before we get to that point.

You have been DFiBrillated.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 5, 2009 9:36 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Randolph played so poorly in the non-crunch time

I must have missed that part during the Grizz game. 4 points, 3 boards, and 2 turnovers (one of which wasn’t his fault) in 7 minutes seems pretty good to me. And I just used the rebounding numbers to point out how ridiculous it is to use all these stats after two games. If you accept the argument of the whole post, than you have to accept the rebounding argument based on the same data.

Also, who’s to say it would have to be Randolph in there? Moore was playing fine out there, making very few mistakes, and should definitely know how to close out games at this point in his career.

You can argue all you want, but my hate for Maggette’s game (he seems like a cool person) will be unending. I can’t even compare him to Zach Randolph any more… Did you see how many times Zach Randolph actually passed the ball? I was stunned.

by samuraaaaiiiiiii on Nov 5, 2009 11:37 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I must have missed that part during the Grizz game. 4 points, 3 boards, and 2 turnovers (one of which wasn’t his fault) in 7 minutes seems pretty good to me.

You missed the “and 3 fouls” part. 3 more and he’s out… probably with the Grizz at the line.

Also, who’s to say it would have to be Randolph in there?

This started as a Randolph vs. Maggette discussion in response to the “WTFBBQ!!! Why isn’t RANDOLPH PLAYING!!!!!” If you want to start talking about other players, Mikki Moore may a better option against the Shaqs and Zach Randolphs of the world, but that’s not normally going to be the case.

And this really sums it up:

You can argue all you want, but my hate for Maggette’s game (he seems like a cool person) will be unending.

An unwillingness to at least occassionally reevaluate ones belief structure is ignorance.

You have been DFiBrillated.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 5, 2009 3:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

An unwillingness to at least occassionally reevaluate ones belief structure is ignorance.

You make it sound like my views towards the way that one person plays basketball extends to my world view… :-(

by samuraaaaiiiiiii on Nov 5, 2009 8:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ummm...

It reflects on your world view. And in this particular instance, you’re practicing ignorance. I don’t know you so I don’t know whether or not you practice it with respect to other aspects of your world view. It’s not like Maggette murdered your dog… right?

You have been DFiBrillated.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 5, 2009 10:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No, but he murders my hope for fun basketball.

by samuraaaaiiiiiii on Nov 6, 2009 2:19 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Back to the pre-Gilbert/ J-Rich era

Game’s on now, and what I see is not only the Warriors are losing their competence, but also their style. They are just like playing pickup game. I recall the years when we have Bimbo, Starks, Felton Spencer, Seikaly, Chris Gatling, Spree, and Co. If we can keep Gilbert + J-Rich + Jameson….

by mond817 on Nov 4, 2009 8:07 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Focus on the future

Regardless of whether Magette as power forward is better for the warriors today. The ceiling for the Warriors with Magette getting major minutes is good enough to screw up our draft position, but not good enough to make the playoffs. Randolph makes mistakes and can even lose some games for the warriors, but his future is the warriors future. If he grows into his potential, we can be a contender. Biedrins, Ellis, Randolph, Morrow, and Curry are a tantalizing young core. Magette can only fit in as a sixth man.

by pericles31081 on Nov 5, 2009 5:59 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Recd

just for the title

by Number22Drew on Nov 6, 2009 12:29 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Is it referring to the

1964 Kubrick film, Dr. Strangelove? Crevel boy!

by lilboots on Nov 6, 2009 4:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Crevel boy

Is that in reference to early twentieth century French surrealist writer Rene Crevel?

by philthiest on Nov 6, 2009 4:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It is sort of an infantile reference

to Chinese immigrant pronunciation of the word “clever”. I don’t stand to be a racist, as I have many of Asian decent in my family. Just being dumb :)

by lilboots on Nov 6, 2009 4:33 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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