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Roll the dice for Nellie?


Considering all the negativity and circular arguments we have on this board, I thought I'd present something different.

Star-divide

 

One thing Riley said in his opening round of interviews (when hired) stuck with me.  Someone asked him if he'd like to add veterans, and his response was "I Think we'd all like to do what Boston did, trade young talent for proven vets like them and make a run."  To me this stuck in my mind because it is exact opposite of the Cohan Warriors approach of 'Next season! Wait till the guys develop, Next Season" approach.  And after watching out guys play again, and again, and again, I begin to wonder, do we really have GREAT young talent that will eventually develop to being a deep playoff contender, or are we being sold the same sorry excuse we've been for 15 years. 

Will Randolph really be an All-Star? Or is he just massively overrated because of his potential and occasional highlight real moments (is he just a taller Tyrus Thomas?).  Is Monta really going to develop into that killer player who can win you games in crunch time? Or are we all enamored by his great efficiency in 2007-8 when he had a top play maker and a good team around him where he was a 3rd option often going unnoticed in other coaches game plans.  Are Morrow, Biedrins, Azubuike and co. really going to be viable NBA players or are they little more than nice role players on a good team. 

We all know Nellie's strengths and weaknesses.  Nellie is a master of match ups, in my opinion he is still a top 10 nba coach, coaching bottom 10 talent.  Finally he does better with more experienced teams.  So I pose the question, should we consider trading some key youth for quality all star? Roll the dice?

 

Proposal:

1. Monta + Randolph for Bosh. 

Yes its a HUGE gamble, but lets look closer.  Monta is about 1 year younger than Bosh, and FAR less accomplished.  Bosh is a legitimate All-Star Power Forward.  good rebounder, good range, growing defender.  Randolph for all his potential, is little more than potential.  Watching him play he still makes A LOT of mistakes.  He is years away (if ever) from being the Garnett/Odom-type player people think he can be.  That being said, around the league many regard him as a 'budding star' and even more so (in our favor) think Nellie is ruining him, and it's not his fault.  I personally tend to believe, if he played better, Nellie would play him more.  It's a huge role of the dice because Bosh will be a free agent, but hey, you really get nowhere in this league with a slow conservative management style unless you truly luck up in drafting (which I don't think we have).  Turning 2 players with unproven star potential into 1 star is worth it IMO.

 

2. Trade Expiring s (Claxton, Law, Geroge) + Bwright for a all-star caliber wing on team looking to clear cap space: Rip Hamilton.  

There's more than one team looking to do this, but I choose Detroit for 2 reasons.  One they did it last year, Dumar's is not afraid to pull the trigger.  Two, they just signed Ben Gordon to a big contract and he plays exact same position.  I wouldn't rule out they dealing Rip for space to make a run at someone next off season 

 

where does this leave the warriors?

1. Curry

2. Hamilton

3. Jackson

4. Bosh

5. Biedrins

Bench: Watson, Morrow, Buike, Maggette, Turiaf, Moore. 

 

As it stands we're still not that old.  Hamilton and Jackson are over 30, but everyone else in starting 5 is 25 of under.  Having Hamilton and Bosh will allow Jackson to be 3rd option, more defensive a role he does better in.  And will allow Curry to not have to do too much offensively, just handle the ball, take open shots as they come and play defense.  The idea of Hamilton and Jackson gives us 2 very good perimeter defenders.  Bosh + Biedrins finally gives us legitimate NBA size.

 

When I look at this rotation, yes its flawed.  Ye we're still a little thin inside, lack a second PG, but this team is good enough to make playoffs and win a round.  For a team whose done than once in 15 years, we should be ecstatic with that.  I realize it's a huge gamble with bosh, but at a certain point especially when you're a struggling franchise you have to roll the dice.  It'll never happen but hey its fun to talk about/

 

 

We Believe Part Duex?

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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That's a...

…very worthwhile idea, but I want to e rid of Jackson in this equation. If you were to perhaps cast off Jackson in some sort of package for another veteran SF, this would be an intriging idea, although truth be told I’m not nuts about the idea of Hamilton if we were to go this route. I don’t think he’d be quite the rock at the 2 that you may be imagining in this “win-now” scenario.

by Zack Vank on Nov 4, 2009 10:08 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn’t package Randolph in a Bosh deal.

You know I spit technique to the freshest freak
Gimme a call you will see results in just a week
With the soul of a LOST HAWK
Is there a heaven for a Rap Cat, let's talk

by LostHawkGSW on Nov 4, 2009 10:15 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

"Good Enough to Make the Playoffs and Win a Round"

I would rather watch young talent develop than have this be my ceiling. A Bosh/Biedrins frontcourt would be sick, but the reality is that the team you propose would probably not even be good enough to win a round this year.

Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!

by Supafishal on Nov 4, 2009 10:19 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

you have to start somewhere....

I should say THIS year they’d be somewhere around a 5 to 7 seed in west… Lakers, San antonio, Denver are all superior. Portland, Utah, Dallas are probably better because of continuity.

However this team has a great propensity to keep developing. I look at Boston with Ray Allen still performing at 34 and see no reason Rip can’t be similar. More so with the wing depth you would’nt have to play 40 mins per game.

More so, Bosh will get better, Biedrins will get better and Curry will get A LOT better. My point is we’d have a team that can make noise now, and has propensity (depending on where Curry ends up long term) to be even better…

by tafkasam on Nov 4, 2009 10:33 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If you could lock up Bosh for a long time then it might be worth it. I think you could probably do better than Rip at the 2 if you actually had all the other pieces in place. I also disagree with your Boston comparison. Because of their defensive intensity and great frontcourt, Allen really doesn’t have to do much except catch and shoot. On this team, Rip would be asked to do a lot more, without the support on defense that Boston has.

Interesting idea though. The sad truth is that we’d probably get halfway there and then screw it up somehow at the 11th hour.

Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!

by Supafishal on Nov 4, 2009 10:48 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

furthermore

I don’t see the top 4 seeds in the West being available for quite some time. The Fakers, Nuggs, and Blazers are young and deep. Houston will have a ridiculous amount of cap space and a great coach to attract more talent (although they don’t seem to be hurting as is). The Jazz are in the same boat. The Spurs are old but you know they will somehow keep it going. Maybe the Mavs and Hornets will start to fade, but the Thunder look like they will be really, really good with some more seasoning. It is going to be incredibly tough without some serious marquee talent to crack into the upper echelon. Is Bosh one of those guys? Havn’t seen it yet…

Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!

by Supafishal on Nov 4, 2009 10:56 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

well…

Fakers aren’t young. There main peices are 31, 29, 30. They are IN there window now.

Denver- Losing Chauncey will be a big blow for them and he’s not getting younger. At that point it’ll be just Melo, who is GREAT but still just one man.

Blazers- True but it’s really all dependent on Curry. If Curry can push to being a very good pg, then we can. Cause bosh and Biedrins is better than lamarcus/oden IMO.

My point is that team i proposed for warriors would grow. Curry in 3 years could be better than Hamilton or Jackson (hopefully atleast #2). Bosh/Biedrins front court could be as good as any in NBA. And Eitherway when you have a quality front court, it opens up outside shooting. Mr. Morrow and Buike will enjoy that. Anyway you need to compare this team to current monta/randolph etc. potential and I think this one can be greater

by tafkasam on Nov 4, 2009 11:06 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

As for Bosh...

Its valid point, is he upper teir player? I dunno… He’s no Duncan or Garnett. However that generation is soon retiring. Of the next elite power forwards, he is by far the youngest. Dirk (31), West (29), Gasol (29), Amare (27) and I can’t say aside from dirk i want any of others over Bosh.

He has an intensity to his play that makes me think he can grow into a better defender. His offensive game is great and statistically he is the best rebounder.

Think back to Garnett when he was 24/25. Couldn’t get out of first round, statistical juggernaut but many people thought he wasn’t a ‘winner’. Bosh is not Garnett type player but I am hardpressed to write him off yet.

for now with jack and hamilton we’d compete. More so Bosh development along with Curry, could be a GREAT PG/PF combo for next 7-10 years… and I always had a soft spot for a good pick and roll :D

by tafkasam on Nov 4, 2009 11:13 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

"Ray Allen still performing at 34 and see no reason Rip can’t be similar"

Rip Hamilton has a clear statistical peak that he’s past. Ray Allen doesn’t.

Ray Allen has always been more of a spot-up shooter than Rip Hamilton. It’s possible to be an effective spot-up shooter at a much older age that it’s possible to effective beating people with your quickness and toughness, and getting the hoop.

Rip has also always been a much more physical player than Ray. He’s taken a lot more abuse over the years than Ray, who tended to play on mediocre teams which didn’t bust their ass on defense.

In other words, contrary to what you wrote above, there are a LOT of reasons why you wouldn’t expect Rip to be as effective getting older as Ray has been.

by Ronaldinho on Nov 4, 2009 11:32 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think I’d be fine with Monta/Randolph for Bosh, assuming we could extend Bosh. As much as it’d hurt to give up on Randolph’s potential, and as good as Monta is, I think that’d be a win for us; ensuring ourselves an elite frontcourt player is worth giving up on a good shooting guard for, especially when we’re deep in swingmen.

However, I’m not sure that I’d bother with the second part of the trade. Rip’s a good player, definitely better than Morrow or ‘Buike at this point of their careers, but he’s 32 and his contract is enormous. He wouldn’t be much of an offensive upgrade for us, and while he’d help our defense for sure, he’s not the kind of impact defender that would really change things for us.

Also, you still have the Jack problem. The problem with Jack is not simply that he’s unhappy because we lack a frontcourt stud; the problem is that Jack is not that good, and is highly overpaid, and plays a position where we have comparably good and much cheaper talent. Even if he felt hunky-dory about the Warriors, it’d be best to move him.

Finally, the idea that we need to capitalize on Nellie’s genius while we still have him isn’t crazy, but it’s a little shaky. He coached badly last year, he’s shown such an apathy for defensive coaching that I don’t think we’ll be competitive on that end till he’s gone, and it’s not an outright guarantee he’ll even be here next year. I love Nellie, but I don’t think we should forsake a youth movement solely to tailor to his strengths. He’s a flawed contributor, and a temporary one.

Would Curry/Hamilton/Jack/Bosh/Biedrins be an upgrade on what we currently? Sure, but mainly because of Bosh; the rest of the roster wouldn’t be much better than it currently is, and would be aging and horrifically expensive. It’d basically be an updated version of “We Believe”, a capped-out team that can’t win more than 46-48 games. Curry/Morrow/Azubuike/Bosh/Biedrins, with a still-solid CJ/Maggette/Wright/Turiaf bench, sounds infinitely better. A worse team in the short term, no question, but a team with youth, upside and financial flexibility.

I don’t think Bosh would extend here, so it’s a moot point. But I think the real thrust of your argument isn’t that we should try to win now; it’s that it would be great to get Chris Bosh. On that front, I certainly agree.

by onlxn on Nov 4, 2009 11:10 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

About Jack and Rip

Jack, i simply see as untradeable for value. I wanted to move Maggette too but i just saw no realistic permutation for either to get us better (as much as d.lee 4 Maggette works in trade machine, lol I don’t see Donnie Walsh saying yes…)

As for Rip. I won’t like I am personally a huge fan. His contract is long (4 years). but what he’d bring mentally as a PROVEN winner, a gritty defender, a leader on and off the court may outweigh it. Point being, i think alot of our players could learn ALOT from a guy like Rip

by tafkasam on Nov 4, 2009 11:21 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Monta + Randolph for Bosh is a talent-losing trade

Bosh is the best player in the deal, but it’s still a talent-losing trade for us. And remember: Bosh isn’t all that. Toronto hasn’t exactly accomplished anything with him as their best player – they’ve had one winning season! Therefore, I have a hard time believing that Bosh is the key to turning things around for a struggling franchise.

As for the Hamilton deal, well, the question is what does he have left in the tank? He had a clear peak statistically from 05-07, but 08 was back to form. Furthermore, he’s at an age where it starts to be unreasonable to see him improve. (If you thought that 08 was a fluke, that’d be one thing. But on the contrary, it was a typical non-peak year for him).

If we were getting the 05-07 Hamilton, then we’d be getting a great player for pennies on the dollar with that deal, so yes, you do it. But what reason to you have to believe he’s still that player?

by Ronaldinho on Nov 4, 2009 11:27 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

And remember: Bosh isn’t all that.

Bosh is a lot closer to “all that” than not. Win Shares pegged him as the 16th-best player in the league last year; WARP pegged him as the 11th. Neither ranking was a fluke for him. By all accounts, he’s been one of the 15-20 best players in the league for each of the past four years. And let’s remember, that’s his floor. At 25, it’s not impossible that he’ll improve, and indeed this year he’s added muscle and has some eye-popping rebounding numbers so far. That may well be a fluke; still, he’s more likely to get better than he is to get worse.

Conversely, let’s look at the guys we’d be trading. I love Monta, but Monta is a guy who’s only had one really good season, and given the skill set he seems to have — inadequate point guard skills, inadequate size to defend bigger twos, no three-point stroke — I’m not sure how he could be expected to ever do better than that season. And even that season was not nearly as valuable as any of Bosh’s last four. I know you acknowledge that Bosh is the best player in the deal, but it’s worth emphasizing just how much better than Monta he really is. Bosh plays a much more important position, plays it much better than Monta plays his, and has shown a consistency and reliability that Monta hasn’t. There’s a huge chasm between the two in value.

Is Randolph’s potential enough to bridge that chasm? Maybe. Randolph could be really, really good, and he probably has more defensive potential than Bosh. On the other hand, expecting him to ever equal Bosh’s offensive production is probably not realistic. He’s shown no real tendency to score efficiently at any level, and we can compare him to Lamar Odom all we like, but Odom was an elite-passing big man from the first moment he stepped onto an NBA court; Randolph was, to put it charitably, not. I think Randolph’s best-case scenario is that he becomes about as valuable as Bosh… better on defense, worse on offense, about as valuable overall. I can’t see a strong case for Randolph reaching the Tim Duncan tier of bigs; Bosh is probably his absolute ceilling.

Still, if there’s a good chance he’ll become Chris Bosh, we shouldn’t make the trade; no sense in trading Chris Bosh and Monta for Chris Bosh. So it’s just a question of how likely we think Randolph is to reach his potential. I have no idea, and probably even the front office has no idea. He’s a hard guy to read. But you have to at least understand the temptation to avoid gambling on Randolph, if you could get a stud by trading him. Between his frequent boneheaded play and his frail physique, there are definitely a lot of ways in which Randolph might not pan out.

Toronto hasn’t exactly accomplished anything with him as their best player – they’ve had one winning season!

It’s true… Bosh’s résumé, in terms of winning, is not impressive. He was the best player on a 47-win team and the best player on a 41-win team… other than that, his teams have stunk. That ain’t exactly setting the world on fire.

But we’re not talking about trading Bosh for proven winners; we’re talking about trading him for Monta and Randolph. Monta was the fourth-best player on a 42-win team and the third-best player on a 48-win team… other than that, his teams have stunk. And Anthony Randolph hasn’t even won in high school, let alone college or the pros. However Bosh’s winning credentials may be, they’re infinitely more impressive than those of the guys we’d be trading for him, and that’s with some of the worst supporting casts you can imagine.

Therefore, I have a hard time believing that Bosh is the key to turning things around for a struggling franchise.

Would he single-handedly take us to the Conference Finals? Probably not… he has not, to this point, been that level of player (although I do think the supporting cast here would be better than many he’s had in Toronto). But if we refuse to trade our guys until we can get better winners than Bosh in return, we’re going to wait until the sun burns out. All we have to offer are warty guys that play on a crappy team. That’s never gonna net someone better than Bosh.

Would Bosh help, at least in the short term? No question. In terms of playing time, this trade would upgrade Anthony Randolph into Chris Bosh, and downgrade Monta Ellis into Anthony Morrow and Kelenna Azubuike. The upgrade is vastly bigger than the downgrade, unless Randolph magically puts it all together all of a sudden. And he seems to be getting farther away from doing that, rather than closer.

Again, it’d only remotely make sense if Bosh would agree to extend here, which he most likely wouldn’t. But if he would, there’s a strong argument for that trade, at the very least. It’d be a gamble, but relying on Monta and Randolph to lead us to success is a pretty big gamble, too.

by onlxn on Nov 4, 2009 12:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The main reason I'd consider it ...

… is because I don’t think we’re getting value for Monta, and I don’t think we will so long as we have Curry on the roster as well. I just don’t think you can play both of those guys enough minutes to maximize their talents, and we need Curry’s skill set more, even if Monta is the better player now (and perhaps will always be, we don’t know).

Agreed with you, however, that without an extension in place it’s a no-brainer.

by Ronaldinho on Nov 4, 2009 2:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

SMARTEST POST IN A WHILE!

Agree with about everything here.

I believe Randolph and Monta are our BEST trade chits. Teams don’t make the playoffs without all-stars. (yes, in ’07 we officially had no all-star, but EVERYONE knows Baron deserved it).

Randolph is bordering on getting the dreaded UN-COACHABLE label. Once he gets that, then his trade value is about as much as Jackson’s currently is.

Monta may be the same.

I think with Bosh, Jackson will “CONTENT”, instead of a “MALCONTENT” and he will be effective again. He really just wants to play on a veteran team, that plays as a team.

Call it wishful thinking, but I think this would be a better building block for the future than throwing Randolph out there 30 a game to “get his”.

by joegiant on Nov 4, 2009 12:33 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

AR uncoachable?

I think your jumping to conclusions to quick. He’s always had a good attitude, work ethic and I think it’s just Nellie and his craziness about his rotations. He is far from uncoachable.

Rookie: "Why did you bench me?"
Nellie: "You're a rookie"

by dubzfan on Nov 4, 2009 1:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't doubt nellie has signed off on this (or some permutation) involving randolph

being as he sees Randolph as being 2-3 years IF EVER away from being an upper tier PF (in fact I’ve never heard him outright said he can, he’s just toned it down a bit and done his standard “I love him!” Nellie act).

But I have a feeling Rowell or more so Cohan immediately vetoed cause they don’t think theres anyway they can re-sign and they aren’t necessarily open to max money

by tafkasam on Nov 4, 2009 12:50 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

you’ve just exceeded SBnations limit on the use of the word “permutation” for one thread.

by MO-ped MO-problems on Nov 4, 2009 1:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see the point

why are the Warriors so obsessed with making the eighth seed
Why would you trade your future just to make it to the eighth seed but not become serious contenders.
Whats the point: You give up all your future just to make the eighth seed
 I would much rather wait till talent is developed and we can make an educated prediction of how far we can go into the playoffs

It really sucks to be a warriors fan because all you can look forward to is possibly getting into the playoffs with the eighth seed and getting blown out in the first or second round, or just not being bad
Why do you run a team if your biggest hope is making the eighth seed
The Warriors are going to be screwed up forever unless they change their aspirations and stop trying just not to be bad. I would rather be a bad team for a couple of years and attempt to rebuild so we don’t turn into the Clippers, and so we might be able to become young and successful like the Blazers.
     Our management is the worst in the NBA, and thats why no one wants to play here, so we need to also to first gut management show them how bad they have been by embarassing them, and pick them back up and make them into a players management. A management people want to play for.

Thats why trading for an expiring superstar is so stupid, the superstar will never resign and we’ll be left worse than before having to sign some bad player in a desperate move, and overpaying him(see jackson Maggette etc

I'm in eighth grade give me a break

by Mike Fox on Nov 4, 2009 1:06 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

You're missing my point.

I will admit, first off resigning Bosh is a must. The theory is if we do it, have a good time and he likes it he’ll resign.

But I think eventually it’d make us title contenders. I think this season we’d be a 6 to 8 seed. I also think as bosh matures in 2 years is 27 (with duncan being 34, dirk being 33, gasol 31) he may be dominant PF in NBA.

With the maturing of Curry we could have 1 of best PG/PF duos. Curry may never be deron williams or cp3 BUT Bosh will be better than millsap and West.

There is no trade we could possibly make that will make us a contender this year. My point is this trade would make us better now AND long term. Bosh may be 5 years older than randolph, but i don’t see randolph ever being as BOSH good

by tafkasam on Nov 4, 2009 1:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

all you can look forward to is possibly getting into the playoffs with the eighth seed and getting blown out in the first or second round,

  That’s the way winners are built, get into the playoffs, learn from it then come back next year and go further. The trouble is the Warriors only got to the first step then lost their nerve and decided to go back to being the lovable underdog. .

Standing on the moon
Where talk is cheap and vision true
Standing on the moon
But I would rather be with you
Somewhere in San Francisco
On a back porch in July
Just looking up to heaven
At this crescent in the sky

by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 4, 2009 3:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, as long as you’re out trolling again, I’ll point out (again) that if you could magically re-assemble the We Believe team right now, they’d likely be one of the worst teams in the NBA.

You don’t build great franchises around overpaid mediocrities like Baron, JRich, Harrington, and Jackson.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2009 10:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

overpaid mediocres..

Possibly. But they worked very well for the system and had success in it.

by tafkasam on Nov 5, 2009 8:58 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I’ll point out (again) that if you could magically re-assemble the We Believe team right now, they’d likely be one of the worst teams in the NBA.

 Well yeah now they would but in 08 and 09 we’d have been better and made the playoffs. We got Jrich, then Boom for a multi year plan then didn’t follow thru. We should be rebuilding that team now not in 07.

Standing on the moon
Where talk is cheap and vision true
Standing on the moon
But I would rather be with you
Somewhere in San Francisco
On a back porch in July
Just looking up to heaven
At this crescent in the sky

by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 5, 2009 10:58 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The only players we can trade and should trade are

Azubukie he won’t resign trade him for Jordan Hill or R. Balkman we need a big desperately our frontline is an abolute joke not enough depth and too damn much of Corey Maggette. Jordan Hill is fine defensively and a good rebounder, he might be able to run the pick and roll too. He also is young and can help our future.
Balkman PER is 16.8 compared to Azubukie 14.7 he is a strong defender and rebounder and adds size at 6’8
trade Acie Law, Speedy Claxton, and devean George for Tony Battie and Keyon Dooling

I'm in eighth grade give me a break

by Mike Fox on Nov 4, 2009 1:18 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

You can't judge Randolph yet

Bosh is fine, but Randolph has something special i don’t know if we should trade him if we are not 100 percent sure Bosh will sign long term wich I doubt he would because he wants to be wih another superstar like DWade

I'm in eighth grade give me a break

by Mike Fox on Nov 4, 2009 1:28 PM PST reply actions   0 recs


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