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"Out of Control" Randolph

(I decided this post works better when people read onlxn's ode to Mikki Moore's craptitude)

Not a day goes by without a Bay Area media type sagely opining that Anthony Randolph should play 'under control,' or blaming Randolph's lack of PT on 'out of control' play.  Whenever the 20 year old plays well, he's given the backhanded compliment of having played 'under control' that evening.  I understand that the sentiment can come from a good place, but I chafe at the paternalistic tone with which Gary St. Jean uses it.  Actually, I chafe at anything Gary St. Jean says, and I hate how it always seems like he just woke up from a nap. Anyway, I fear that we're starting to drink the toxic Kool Aid that comes from our coaching staff, the same staff that works under management that has institutionalized destructive madness: We're starting to believe that Randolph hasn't earned a starting spot and is having a bad second year. Poor Nellie, he had such high hopes for the kid.

We're warming to this theme because humans seek order in their lives and can't stand the thought of authority figures doing irrational things. We want to think that Nelson has a tough love plan, that Randolph must be hurting the team, or that Mikki Moore brings veteran magic dust.  Our brains have trouble understanding why highly paid, motivated people would sacrifice game after game starting washed up scrubs like Vlad and Mikki. Poor management, with the injuries they're trying hard in a bad situation!

And we know how this thing usually goes in Warrior land. Management touts player, player gets blamed for team problems, player gets traded for crap, player flourishes elsewhere.  So before that happens with Anthony Randolph, I want to ask a simple question:

How bad has his second season been?

Let's check Randolph's stats and compare them to the 20 year old seasons of three realistic comps: Lamar Odom, Josh Smith, and Gerald Wallace.

Star-divide

 

First, here are Ant's numbers so far:

G    GS  MIN    FG           FG%    3P        3P%    FT           FT%    STL    BLK    TO   
19    1    22.3    4.2-9.7    .427    0.1-0.3 . 200     3.6-4.3    .829    0.80    1.20    1.4

    PF    OFF    DEF    TOT    AST    PTS
    3.1    2.4       4.6       7.0     1.1      11.9

I would add the Hollinger stat of 18.97 PER, which is higher than Randolph's 16.94 total from last year.  How did Anthony accomplish this while being so damned 'out of control'? The free throw line has a lot to do with it. Ant's reckless ways are getting him there 4.3 times per game, an impressive total a 22 minute run.  It also helps that Randolph made nearly 83% of his freebies.  This aides in offsetting his mediocre shooting percentage (so far his biggest flaw, but something that tends to improve with age).  Here's the part where I add that Vlad is averaging .7 FTs and Moore is racking up .5 per game. Only Donaughy could help those two get to the line at an average rate.

Obviously Randolph's main contribution isn't at the line.  He's out there to rebound.  And he's done that to the tune of 7 boards per 22.3 min run.  Throw in the solid 1.20 blocks as a bonus, and we have that shot blocking, rebounding power forward we always needed....if we weren't so totally stacked right now at that position (I hope Vlad Rad doesn't give a snippy Hall of Fame speech like MJ did!).

There is one particular area where Randolph isn't under control: He's picking up 3.1 fouls per game.  The fouling issue usually comes with the territory for shot blockers, but Randolph makes the occasional away-from-the-ball hack, and he leaves his feet too often. 

As for the turnovers, well they're at a staggering 1.4 per game (gasp!).  Per 36 minutes, that's a "whopping" 2.2 TOs.  Oh no, a super careful PG like Monta won't stand for that kind of blundering! Okay, I'll stop with the sarcasm.  Just know that it's a decent rate, especially for a 20 year old kid who frequently takes it to the rack. Now for the three Randolph comps at age 20:

Lamar Odom

G      GS      MP      FG      FGA      FG%      3P      3PA      3P%      FT      FTA      FT%     
76      70      36.4      5.9      13.5      .438      0.8      2.2      .360      4.0      5.5      .719     

ORB      DRB      TRB      AST      STL      BLK      TOV      PF      PTS
    2.1      5.7        7.8      4.2         1.2        1.3          3.4        3.8       16.6

Josh Smith

G      GS      MP      FG      FGA      FG%      3P      3PA      3P%      FT      FTA      FT%     
80      73      32.0      4.1      9.7      .425      0.4      1.4      .309         2.6      3.7      .719     

ORB      DRB      TRB      AST      STL      BLK      TOV      PF      PTS
  2.2          4.4       6.6        2.4       0.8      2.6        2.0       3.3      11.3

Gerald Wallace

G      GS      MP      FG      FGA     FG%      3P      3PA   3P%      FT      FTA      FT%     
47      7      12.1      1.9      3.9      .492        0.0      0.1      .250      0.8      1.6      .527     

ORB      DRB      TRB      AST      STL      BLK      TOV      PF      PTS
0.8         1.9           2.7      0.5         0.5      0.3       0.9          1.4      4.7

 

I'd say Anthony Randolph matches up pretty well with those guys.  The criticism is really what's out of control here. That, and our criminally insane coaches who think height is a disadvatage in basketball.

Poll
Should Anthony Randolph get 30 plus minutes of PT?
Yes, I'm tired of vomiting on my shoes when I watch Vlad Rad mope around the court
340 votes
No, I'll gut out watching the Vlad-Mikki frontcourt usher players to the rim
38 votes

378 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

10 recs  |  Comment 93 comments |

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Couldnt agree more..

And im not a mikki Moore hater, just think he’s limited, but at least he can hit the open mid ranger. But yes, Nellie and friends need to stop adding the the fire, randolph isn’t a head case like Jax, and ALWAYS leaves it out on the court. Good game or bad, he always gives effort, and i can forsee next season, his third as a pro, to be a dandy one.
Not farfetched to see AR avergage 18 and 9 with 35+ minutes a game next year.

by ef_werd on Dec 10, 2009 6:43 AM PST reply actions  

Good post.

Just to boil it down a bit: Randolph, despite sometimes looking like a total clownshoes this season, has in fact improved his game relative to last season in almost every important area.

Randolph, last season / this season
TS% — .506 / .513 (still not great, but this is an area where young kids typically improve)
FT% — .716 / .829 (a promising sign that when he calms down, he can be a very nice offensive player)
Pts/36 — 15.9 / 19.3
Reb% — 17.5 / 18.1 (both of these numbers are ridiculously good)
Ast% — 6.8 / 7.0 (still nothing special, but much better than Amare Stoudemire, for example)
TOV% — 14.0 / 10.5 (this one is especially encouraging)

Only minor slips from last season are the slight uptick in fouls and a very slight downtick in blocks (though the block numbers are still very good).

And as the diarist points out: his age 20 numbers compare very favorably not just to the standard worst-case comps (Stromile Swift, e.g.), but also to the best-case comps (Kevin Garnett, e.g.)

Let’s not let the occasional maddening dorkiness distract us from the bigger picture: Randolph is on track, nay ahead of schedule, to be a very, very good starting power forward in the NBA.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 10, 2009 8:11 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

Thanks, I probably should have used some of those numbers

More evidence against the ‘Randolph played his way out of the lineup’ narrative.

ES

by Free Zarko on Dec 10, 2009 1:24 PM PST up reply actions  

While the numbers comparing last season as a whole to this season suggest improvement, it seems like there’s some regression from where he was at the end of last season. The FG% last year saw a reasonable climb at or above 50% as the season closed out. Seeing it drop back down this year is disappointing.

I guess too many years of seeing Dunleavy finish looking pretty good and expect him to build upon the finish, only to see him back to the same level of mediocre come October has me thinking pessimistically. Still so long and Anthony rebounds when he’s in there, I’ll carry hope that he takes this team higher.

by jae on Dec 10, 2009 2:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Good point. Randolph’s upward trend in FG% was one of the many encouraging things about his rookie season:

Nov .343
Dec .452
Jan .488
Feb .500
Mar .510
Apr .472

And of course in LV summer league, he seemed to have consolidated those gains, looking more relaxed on offense, with a much better sense of his range and comfort zone. To see him regress from that point to the total offensive spaz he’s been for stretches this season, was just an awful thing for a fragile Warrior fan to endure.

Still, we are only 20 games into this season, and he already seems to be calming down a bit. Beyond the FG%, his drop in turnover rate — with a concurrent rise in usage rate and overall scoring — is very promising, I think. That was one of the areas of concern last season. Since his ugly six-turnover game v. Portland on 20 November, he’s only turned it over four times in seven games. For a guy averaging 19.3 points per 36, a 10.5% turnover rate is damn good. By way of comparison, my favorite whipping boy Amare Stoudemire is averaging 20.2 points with a turnover rate of 15.6%. (And, as mentioned above, an even worse assist rate than Randolph. And of course: nowhere near Randolph’s rebounding chops…)

Sorry, not to hijack the thread (yes, I’m aware that Amare is a more polished and efficient scorer). Takeaway point is that Randolph’s actual production hasn’t been nearly as alarming as his video lowlights might indicate. Imagine how good he can be when he actually starts to look good? Actually, we don’t have to imagine: just pro-rate Randolph’s lovely numbers from last night (20 min, 11 pts on 7 field goal attempts, 9 reb, 4 ast, 1 stl, 3 blk, 0 tov) and you get a tantalizing taste…

Chin up, jae!

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 10, 2009 3:37 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

(20 min, 11 pts on 7 field goal attempts, 9 reb, 4 ast, 1 stl, 3 blk, 0 tov)

Those are some insanely good stats. Holy hell.

Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.

by Naticus2 on Dec 12, 2009 2:21 PM PST up reply actions  

A comparison of his ‘08-’09 shooting splits to his ‘09-’10 shooting splits leaves me encouraged; the dip in his FG% seems more like evidence of a change in his game than regression of it, and I think it should come back up soon.

Randolph’s shooting about the same percentage of jumpers as he did next year, and making them a bit more effectively. The troubles come inside, where his eFG has nosedived from .628 to .519. A visual chart of his shooting splits shows the most of this regression has taken place within the restricted area — right around the basket. And the main reason? Opponents are swatting the ball back in his face with alarming frequency. 9% of Randolph’s inside shots were blocked last year, a fairly normal figure; this year, 17% of his inside shots are being blocked. That is downright gruesome.

But Randolph is not getting blocked more in a vacuum. He is getting blocked more while also getting fouled more. And I would guess that these two things are related: he is focusing more on drawing contact than he ever has before, but he’s not used to the increased attention inside and is getting solved more often as a result. If that’s what’s happening, it’s good news. He certainly has the length and hops to convert down low… if he plays his cards right, he’s not a guy who should get blocked very often. It’s just a matter of being less obvious with his shots. He often goes up right when he gets the ball, expecting to be able to overpower his defender; NBA bigs are too good for that, and he’ll learn that before long. A baby hook here, a pump fake there, and his scoring percentage inside will go back up. Indeed, he’s only been blocked once in his last four games, so he may already be figuring this out… I’m guessing he sneaks back up near 46% by season’s end. That’s not great for a big man, but if he keeps getting to the line, converting there and avoiding turnovers like he has been, it’s enough to make him an effective offensive player.

I’m not at all discouraged by what Randolph’s done this year. His rebounding and shot-altering skills are clearly for real; he’s still raw offensively, but 1) that’s no surprise for a 20-year-old big, 2) he’s showing new skills on that end, and 3) he doesn’t have to be much of an offensive player to be an overall asset. This guy is just a tweak or two away from becoming a real impact player. This is no time to stop being excited.

Ladies and gentlemen, your Golden State Worriers.

by onlxn on Dec 10, 2009 11:53 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

You call getting a shot blocked getting “solved?” That’s awesome.

Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!

by Supafishal on Dec 11, 2009 8:13 AM PST up reply actions  

“SOLVED” could be the new “OWNED.”

Or maybe more like “50LV3D”?

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 11, 2009 10:13 AM PST up reply actions  

Damn fool you been SOLVED!

Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!

by Supafishal on Dec 11, 2009 10:24 AM PST up reply actions  

Haha. Awesome. I’m taking that straight to tonight’s game thread…

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 11, 2009 10:30 AM PST up reply actions  

Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.

by Naticus2 on Dec 12, 2009 2:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Great post man. Rec'd

I didn’t get a chance to watch the whole postgame discussion on AR, but I did catch some of what Musselman said.

“The most he’ll ever be is a solid player. He will not be an All Star.”

I’ve always liked Musselman and I loved it when he was a coach for us. He did at times piss me off when he would bench Arenas, but then I understood why he did so. Still, during that time, I felt Arenas should have been playing in the 4th Qtr and during crunch time no matter what.

Anyways, it pissed me off to hear him make that comment. I think it’s fair to criticize him today and this whole season for any flaws AR has, but with the talent, potential, work ethic, and desire to be the best, no one should ever make that damn statement “he will only be a solid player at best.”

IT’S ONLY HIS SECOND YEAR FOR GOD’S SAKE. HE IS ONLY 20 YEARS OLD!

If he was in his 7th year and makes a lot of bonehead mistakes then criticize him with that strong statement.

Maybe Mussleman knows AR personally? and it was his way of motivating AR? who knows. If this isn’t the case, then I hope AR shoves it in his face 3-5 years from now when he is an absolute stud. I really hope this happens as AR in a Warriors uniform.

Whatever. I’m all heated now for a dumb reason.

Warriors won. I should be happy.

I’ll continue to be patient and believe that AR will be an allstar. I will continue to believe AR WILL BE more than just a solid player.

Man, I really hope the Warriors don’t think the same way as Mussleman thinks. If so, then trade his arse if you think he sucks and we’ll see what happens.

Man, I don’t know how many times I’m going to repeat this. Give these young cats a damn break. They have a long way to go but I love their extra efforts in their willingness to learn, develop strong team chemistry, playing their guts out game in and game out. That’s all I could ask for right now and even though it has been an up and down season so far (more down actually), it has been entertaining for me to watch our Golden State Warriors.

And everytime one of these Warrior Players mentions us Warrior fans or compliments our Warriors support, I whole heartedly believe them.

Romes Mac Mojous

by ROMESdavidWOOD37 on Dec 10, 2009 9:04 AM PST reply actions  

Musselman

What trash Musselman is. That whole interview in fact was basically talking about what Anthony Randolph will not be. “He will not be an allstar.” He is twenty years old, showing solid improvement in his second year, and all of them are talking about how limited he is. I lost a lot of respect for Chronicle Live.

by randolphforpresident on Dec 10, 2009 10:44 AM PST up reply actions  

not to mention

..how they went on and on about him never having gone to college. It was so embarrassing I had to change it.

by Jeremy Belvins on Dec 10, 2009 10:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Rec'd. Even in Geoff Lepper's Live game recaps you can tell he's starting to get frustrated

Btw, even though there’s a lot of dumb thing said over there, there are some good discussions about AR’s playing time and such over on the Warriors Realgm board. Worth a glance for some different perspectives

by 123707THIZZ on Dec 10, 2009 9:42 AM PST reply actions  

I didnt vote

I do think that randolph is better than Vlad Rad, but I do like the presence that Randolph can bring off the bench. I think that once we get healthy Randolph will unquestionably get more playing time than Vlad Rad

by box707 on Dec 10, 2009 11:00 AM PST reply actions  

interesting compairsons but....

Just because those guys shoot poor percentages doesn’t justify playing randolph poor. Below average is below average. However I feel that’s not even the reason he doesn’t play… its much simpler. He gets to line and makes them enough to make up for a poor fg% most times…

But he turns it over and more so gets in fouls trouble waaayy too much. Last few games the to’s are improving but until those improve consistantly along with better shot selection its hard to truly argue more minutes

by tafkasam on Dec 10, 2009 11:11 AM PST via mobile reply actions  

The fouls are probably why Smart and Nellie see justification to bench him. It seems to get coaches upset. But in terms of impact on a game, a turnover is much more costly to the cause, and the coaching staff seems to tolerate turnovers at absurd rates.

by jae on Dec 10, 2009 2:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Our starting frontcourt should be AR at 5 and Vlad at 4 with Hunter backing up.

This lineup is worth a shot too:

Monta
Ammo
Vlad
AR
Hunter

Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!

by Supafishal on Dec 10, 2009 11:40 AM PST reply actions  

I don’t mind Vlad at the 3 in certain matchups, but given our lack of front court depth, I’d rather have him playing big for the time being…

by Missing Barry on Dec 10, 2009 2:03 PM PST up reply actions  

I like the idea of Vlad at the 3 for multiple reasons but one of them is that it allows us to run Curry and Maggs together in the second unit (hopefully giving Monta some rest). I would just run that Maggette flash play from Curry over and over again.

Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!

by Supafishal on Dec 10, 2009 2:40 PM PST up reply actions  

I have been banging this drum for a few days now!! :)
that is exactly…. Why I would like us to try the line-up above…

Hunter can cover the middle nicely… Randolph can be left to be a little more ‘offensive’ (yes I do mean that) in his defence and Radman has been pretty useful on rebounds and quick hands… with the added defensive capability of Morrow and using him as the pure 3 point shooter, with suppport from Radman…leaving randolph and Monta to raid the middle and Hunter to set the pick and roll’s….

I think this unit could learn to work really well together…. the good thing is, you completely change the dynamic with the rotation players..

Curry, CJ
Magette, Moore and George This group has Curry being ball handler and a focus of letting Mags do what he does best and drive the hoop and if it is not on..kick it out to CJ for the shot or Curry with George chasing rebounds….
I genuinely believe this could work really well for us….
by BritWarriorGSW on Dec 8, 2009 12:20 PM PST

"Better a Has-been than a Never-was. But better a Never-was than a Never-tried-to-be"

by BritWarriorGSW on Dec 10, 2009 4:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh ho boy!!! You had me until D. George entered the conversation.

Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!

by Supafishal on Dec 10, 2009 6:41 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

Awesome post

I didn’t have the numbers and comparisons but I’ve been saying the same thing about Don Nelson, although all the fans want him out, most fans still get brainwashed by him…When the whole feud between Nellie and Monta was going on, there were 3 posts/day about trade ideas for Monta, now all of a sudden he’s “ready to be handed the key to the franchise” well guess what, he was our best player when Jax was here and the franchise was already his to take.

Everyone had such high hopes for Randolph in the summer and now there’s trade ideas for him too !!! I just wanna know from people that have given up on AR, what have you guys seen of him to make you lose faith. He doesn’t even get enough playing time to be able to see his full potential, when he’s playing, after each mistake he makes, he looks at the bench, scared that he’s gonna be taken out….Imagine you were in his shoes, wouldn’t the stress affect your game too ?? He’s GOING to be an all-star someday, no doubt. I just can’t wait to see those disbelievers flip flop and start praising him again…

by ARandolph on Dec 10, 2009 12:08 PM PST reply actions  

Don't worry about it.

Anthony Randolph will get traded to another team and he will become one of the top 3 forwards in the NBA.

During that time, the Warriors will have 3 potential good players in their second year where people will wonder why they have been inconsistent all season and fans will be adamant in trading them for AR.

We will have 37 trade ideas a week to trade for AR.

And the cycle keeps moving.

TRADE TRADE TRADE! NOW NOW NOW!

WE NEED 5 LEBRON JAMES ON THE TEAM AND 2 MICHAEL JORDANS OFF THE BENCH.

Push patience out the door.

Romes Mac Mojous

by ROMESdavidWOOD37 on Dec 10, 2009 12:31 PM PST up reply actions  

WE NEED 5 LEBRON JAMES ON THE TEAM AND 2 MICHAEL JORDANS OFF THE BENCH.

Neither of them are true PGs or PFs. WE NEED 2 JOHN STOCKTONS AND KARL MALONES TOO

by tafkasam on Dec 10, 2009 3:12 PM PST up reply actions  

LOL. Word.

Some Magic Johnsons, Larry Birds, David Robinsons, Hakeem Olajuwons and the such.

But that would be absolutely asking wayy too much for a team. Yet we expect this Warrior team to be this way from game 1 of the season.

 * kicks patience out the window this time * (for trying to come back)

Romes Mac Mojous

by ROMESdavidWOOD37 on Dec 10, 2009 5:13 PM PST up reply actions  

lebron james is a natural “any position on the floor”.

heart of a champion, will of the warrior.

by cap'n hack on Dec 11, 2009 6:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Fabulous post. And if anything, even you’re being a little harsh on him… his turnover numbers are actually pretty good, considering how often he handles the ball.

By many metrics, PER and BP’s Win% among them, Randolph has been our best player so far this year. There is simply no argument against starting him. Anyone — coach, pundit, fan — who thinks that he’s too “out of control” to contribute doesn’t understand what constitutes effective basketball.

Ladies and gentlemen, your Golden State Worriers.

by onlxn on Dec 10, 2009 12:16 PM PST reply actions  

Thanks

Your Mikki Moore post was awsome btws. I hope people won’t get too juiced off last night’s Mikki Performance considering the weath of evidence that says the guy sucks.

ES

by Free Zarko on Dec 10, 2009 1:16 PM PST up reply actions  

I have to say...

I personally dont think Vlad is a scrub and has actually been playing some nice basketball for us, a damn sight better than then he played for the Bobcats….
and Moore….again I just personally dont see him as bad as many would have us believe. The fact is, he was never our starting choice at centre and last night actually showed how useful he can be…IF people pass to him as he is often in the right position.

He is a bench player, he has had to step up into a role we would all much prefer Biedrins to be playing and there are one or two things he can teach from his experience in the league to the youngsters. There is evidently a reason why Keith Smart and Nelson are turning to Moore at certain times and while you and onlxn may not understand it, neither of you has insight into what is going on behind scenes.

I think therefore that the vitriol toward one of our own team players needs to be taken down a few notches as it is becoming quite unpleasant. You may not like the guy, but he is a Golden State Warrior, he is certainly showing some heart and effort for this club at that at the very least deserves some professional respect.

For me, great content in posts can often be spoiled by personal attacks on our players.

"Better a Has-been than a Never-was. But better a Never-was than a Never-tried-to-be"

by BritWarriorGSW on Dec 10, 2009 4:37 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Yep, Randolph has done what I've expected him to this season

His stats this season are great for a 20 year old who’s getting a little over 20 minutes a game. His hustle plays and unlimited amounts of energy he brings when on the court is fabulous also. Ofcourse he’s gonna be inconsistent, He’s a stick PF (C?) who’s getting inconsistent minutes every game (thanks Nellie).

We better hold onto AR, in a season or two he’s gonna be something special.

Formally known as PFortyy.

http://www.youtube.com/user/XeroEnt

Watch my Warriors vids and subscribe!

by Xero on Dec 10, 2009 1:37 PM PST reply actions  

This is a great post and I wholeheartedly agree with it’s general point (and I’m really happy for you and I’m gonna let you finish); however, don’t you see a slight contradiction between your lauding of AR’s improvement and your bashing of the coaching staff? While it might be frustrating, as fans, for us to watch his playing time yo-yo so much, the end results are undeniable: he has improved vastly since last year both in terms of quantifiable stats and in terms of his general demeanor and approach to the game. You point this out yourself. I don’t think you can applaud the results while discrediting the method. Unless you think he would be playing even better if he hadn’t been on such a tight leash…

Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!

by Supafishal on Dec 10, 2009 2:25 PM PST via mobile reply actions  

You also need to realize something

The point you are making is that the continual yanking of Randolph by Nellie last year actually helped him grow into a better player, evidenced by his improvement this year.

My question to you: do you even remember the circumstances under which Randolph really started to thrive last year? It was only when our roster was completely depleted that Randolph got 30+ minutes each night. What did he do with those minutes? Only turned in about a double-double every game and was among the top in the league in RPG and BPG.

So we have to thank the coaching staff for that improvement? Are you serious? When they had no other choice but to let him play?

by randolphforpresident on Dec 10, 2009 2:59 PM PST up reply actions  

So I guess you would say that he should have been playing 30+ all along? I just don’t see it. He clearly had regressed coming into this season and was playing like the proverbial chicken with it’s head cut off. I think this is a result of him playing a lot in summer league against inferior competition and essentially moving faster than he was actually ready to. I do thank the coaching staff for the obvious settling process that has taken place with him over the early part of this season.

Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!

by Supafishal on Dec 10, 2009 3:16 PM PST up reply actions  

and thats what bugs me

After the momentum he gained end of last year into summer, he regressed in October? Doesn’t make sense other than laziness?

by tafkasam on Dec 10, 2009 4:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Based on what I read

his regression came because he had a big Summer League, and he thinks that he “has arrived”, that he is now the top dog and is ready to handle a real NBA game. Then the pressures of a real NBA game hit him, with real defenders gunning for him, and he froze up.

I guess it’s similar to the feeling of “invincibility” that some young people think they have when they first go driving in a car. They drive recklessly, weaving in and out of traffic, believing they can handle anything. Then they get into an accident and reality hits.

by IQofaWarrior on Dec 10, 2009 4:23 PM PST up reply actions  

+100000000

Spot on again sir!

"Better a Has-been than a Never-was. But better a Never-was than a Never-tried-to-be"

by BritWarriorGSW on Dec 10, 2009 4:38 PM PST up reply actions  

thats shows me he will never be a real star

Guy like kobe, garnett, lebron never got lazy cause they ‘arrived’ They constantly worked HARDER AND HARDER and had an intensity he clearly doesn’t have…..

by tafkasam on Dec 10, 2009 8:26 PM PST up reply actions  

not lazy

Over-confident, reckless, trying to hard – those are all potential interpretations of what IQofaWarrior described. None of those equates to laziness.

Randolph, it seems to me, has been struggling to try to add elements to his offensive game so he isn’t described like Beidrins as a guy who “only cleans up after rebounds and dunks.” This has had him taking contested jump shots and weird hook shots when he could have made a move at the rim or made a pass (even if it just reset the play.) His good games recently have improved on this in two ways – he’s hitting some of those jump shots and hooks and, more importantly, he’s gone back to attacking the rim and passing away when he doesn’t have a good shot. I’m hopeful that both areas of improvement will continue.

by toddaverth on Dec 10, 2009 9:24 PM PST up reply actions  

still is laziness

I think we can all attest that when we avoid the things we REALLY need to work on in favor of working on that which we already do well – its a symptom of laziness – or maybe a lack of discipline.
For example, he may try very hard to make the GREAT play but that isn’t the same as being in the gym longer than everyone else, working on the subtleties of the game, studying film, learning a simple go to post move, etc – not glamorous but his unwillingness to do this (assuming this is the case) shows laziness.

by tjmax on Dec 11, 2009 9:10 AM PST up reply actions  

I'd say a lack of discipline is a better description

Randolph’s been credited by Nellie as being one of his hardest workers during the summer, Morrow being another hard worker. I think Randolph doesn’t BELIEVE he needs to work on anything else after his Summer League success. He hasn’t disciplined himself to understand that greatness is something you keep working on to achieve and maintain, not a “I did it once, now I’m great forever”.

by IQofaWarrior on Dec 11, 2009 9:31 AM PST up reply actions  

Do any of us have the slightest idea how hard Randolph is actually working in practices and such…?

by Missing Barry on Dec 11, 2009 10:50 AM PST up reply actions  

probably not.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

I told Randolph that Bill Russell would tell him to keep that ball in play and start the break.

RANDOLPH: "I know. But sometimes, you gotta let ‘em know."

(MT)

by kenntoe on Dec 11, 2009 12:13 PM PST up reply actions  

That’s kind of what I was getting at. I mean, over the summer all the reports were that he was working extremely hard. Of course I take them with a grain of salt, because those are the typical summer stories when writers have nothing else to write about, but still – it’s something positive. As far as I can tell, there’s nothing negative being said about how hard he’s working right now. At least nothing I’ve read. It seems we’re in the dark on that aspect, so speculation that he’s being lazy or not working hard enough seems…..I dunno, lazy to me?

Now, if someone has some evidence that he is or isn’t working hard enough in practice and other non-game situations, feel free to set the story straight, but as of now, I’ve seen nothing one way or the other….

by Missing Barry on Dec 11, 2009 12:32 PM PST up reply actions  

The grain of salt should be very, very big. Randolph was the savior-apparent at the end of last season; he was the new face, showed some rather impressive physical abilities, played well enough to dissuade doubters and hadn’t been around long enough to sour supporters Those factors that made him popular in fans eyes affect the media people in more or less the same way; they’re fans who have to try a bit harder to be objective, but at heart, they’re still subject to all the same influences. As a result, the “Randolph’s working hard” spin was an easy sell if there was any evidence that he wasn’t simply playing Halo3 all day every day. He had a good summer league too, which raised his visibility.

The flip side of the “Randolph was working hard” stories was that some seemed to infer that the lack of similar stories about Wright meant than he must have been glued to his couch playing Halo3 while any muscle mass he might have had withered away. Wright has it harder in that he’s been here a year longer, wasn’t eligible to play for our Summer League team again, and will be long tied to the Richardson trade. Hence, no puff pieces about how hard he was working, though apparently, he was gaining muscle and in the gym in Chapel Hill all summer long.

by jae on Dec 11, 2009 1:04 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

True words spoken about Brandan Wright man. He’s so damn misunderstood IMO. People think that because he doesn’t show his emotions on the court that he doesn’t have any. But yeah, that is a great point about how all those pieces about Randolph probably hurt Wright’s image.

by belilaugh on Dec 11, 2009 1:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Smart implied laziness

He recently stated that AR was getting back to working on the little things, working harder in practice, focusing more like he did “last year”. This tells me that while he did work hard on the summer, probably on his offensive game, he hasn’t done so this season.

by tjmax on Dec 12, 2009 11:29 AM PST up reply actions  

into summer

Or we’re finally able to see what I’ve been trying to pound into everyone’s head all along. SUMMER LEAGUE STATS DON’T MATTER.

by Missing Barry on Dec 11, 2009 10:47 AM PST up reply actions  

Thanks for the nice words

I don’t see a contradiction, though. Young players tend to improve, I don’t think coaching has a lot to do with Randolph’s growth. I just think he should be playing NOW because he’s better than the guys in front of him.

ES

by Free Zarko on Dec 10, 2009 3:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Well I totally agree that he should be playing now. I advocated he start in this very thread.

Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!

by Supafishal on Dec 10, 2009 3:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Coaching.....will have EVERYTHING

to do with Randolph’s growth in my personal opinion.

"Better a Has-been than a Never-was. But better a Never-was than a Never-tried-to-be"

by BritWarriorGSW on Dec 10, 2009 4:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, I’ll chime in to say I honestly do not know how much coaching has to do with his past and future improvement, and how much it’s hard work and natural progression. :)

by Missing Barry on Dec 11, 2009 10:54 AM PST up reply actions  

So are you therefore implying that he has nothing to learn from coaches?

If he was stupid enough to believe that in his own head, he will never make a great player, period. Everyone can learn something from someone at sometime. In this case, Randolph it ‘seems’ has the weaponry to become extremely good in this league, but with the right coaching he can develop and benefit from that wonderful thing called “others experience” rather than him go and make all the same mistakes thousands of players have made before him.

"Better a Has-been than a Never-was. But better a Never-was than a Never-tried-to-be"

by BritWarriorGSW on Dec 11, 2009 2:02 PM PST up reply actions  

No no, that’s not what I’m saying at all. I’m saying, given an improvement from Randolph, I have no clue how much of that is because of the coaching and how much is because of Randolph. Free Zarko took one opinion, you took another opinion, and I’m just saying I have no idea on the matter, and I honestly don’t know how one would even go about trying to figure the answer out.

by Missing Barry on Dec 11, 2009 2:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Coaching…..will have EVERYTHING to do with Randolph’s growth in my personal opinion.
So are you therefore implying that he has nothing to learn from coaches?

Does it have to be all or nothing? I do hope that he is receptive to the teaching of the coaches and the advice of the more experienced players, but MB is right to say that it’s not clear how much that will actually effect his improvement. Can you really say that improvement at the NBA level has EVERYTHING to do with coaching and nothing to do with experience and hard work?

"I could be chasing an untamed ornithoid without cause."

by olympicmike on Dec 11, 2009 2:08 PM PST up reply actions  

experience of course adds...

but hard work is only useful if it is hard work playing the game effectively…
Randolph can bust his backside running all over the court, charging around and trying to grab everything and working harder than anyone… but that does not mean he is actually helping the team by doing this, if for example, being so keen to charge around everywhere, he is not defending his man properly, or being in the right place for offensive plays and lets not forget bringing the damn ball up the court.

I personally am getting sick to death of watching him bring the ball up the court, I want someone to grab him by the ears and scream into them “Outlet the ball to a damn POINT GUARD!!!” AND THIS…. is the difference between him and the like of an Amare right now… the other PF’s that have similar numbers, simply have better BBall IQ right now…

The point is…he had learned not to do many of the stupid things on court that he now seems to have gone back to and its beyond frustrating to see him starting to play with reckless abandon again. If he actually played like the end of last year…dare I say it…he could actually have numbers leading the NBA as a power forward IMHO.

There is clealry a reason the coaches are not playing him…most of which I suspect is due to events going on behind scenes.

I said it last year and I’ll say it again… He is in desperate need of a mentor, someone to steer him, persoanlly, mentally, in his game, in his attitude…if someone can harness that potential…he truly can be an amazing player I believe in this league…I just dont see or hear who that might be an more importantly, that is what I personally mean by ‘coaching’… its the whole deal, rather than just on court performance…

"Better a Has-been than a Never-was. But better a Never-was than a Never-tried-to-be"

by BritWarriorGSW on Dec 12, 2009 4:26 AM PST up reply actions  

i think hating on vlad is wrong

but mikki critics are right. Vlad’s good though.
I think the Curry-Monta-Morrow-Vlad-Randolph lineup is very good.

Marco Belinelli's Biggest Fan

by montadaboss on Dec 10, 2009 4:53 PM PST reply actions  

I'm with you

I like Vlad, but can see where people don’t like his game. But people defending Mikki Moore…I literally have no clue what’s going on there. Besides from last game, dude has brick hands.

by 123707THIZZ on Dec 10, 2009 6:55 PM PST up reply actions  

i mean ya

i can see what people may get mad at vlad for: consistent shooting. Other than that, we are better when hes on the floor because he spaces the floor, plays good team defense and usually individual defense. He also is a very good passer. Don’t bring up assist totals and try to contradict me, i watch the games and he makes good passes very consistently. Sometimes he is a good rebounder and other times he is not, but i like his game.
Mikki…..not so much. I don’t want to hate the guy, i just don’t think he has the talent anymore.

Marco Belinelli's Biggest Fan

by montadaboss on Dec 10, 2009 8:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Ah,,,
Don’t bring up assist totals and try to contradict me,

I won’t cause I’m not feeling too motivated by the argument, but I will point out that trying to head off an argument against you by insisting people ignore highly relevant data seems suspicious.

by Zack Vank on Dec 11, 2009 11:23 AM PST up reply actions  

Haha.

Avert your gaze, montadaboss — there’s numbers in the room!

VladRad assists per 36 minutes
1.6 this season, 2.2 career

VladRad turnovers per 36 minutes
1.8 this season, 1.9 career

There will be no extra point.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 11, 2009 11:40 AM PST up reply actions  

Now, it doesn’t seem Vlad’s passing is all that useful, but to a degree I kind of agree with montadaboss – I have seen him make nice passes so it seems like he has the ability. But between never being a primary offensive weapon and not having any real ability to create shots for himself or others, his passing ability just doesn’t seem all that useful or productive…

by Missing Barry on Dec 11, 2009 11:53 AM PST up reply actions  

I’m pretty sure he is the only big we currently have playing that knows how to make a backcut pass when a defender turns his head. I also feel like looking at his career stats might not be so useful given that his role has totally changed since he came to the Warriors.

Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!

by Supafishal on Dec 11, 2009 2:48 PM PST up reply actions  

I know he does not get many assists

but when i watch the games he and curry stand out as the best passers on the floor. If you watch the games, you will notice some players do not swing the ball, and simply pass out of last resort. This leads to some players being selfish and getting assists as well(i.e Stephen Jackson, Kobe, Lebron James). Vlad is a facilitator and having a player like that helps ball movement out. I’m sorry if you can’t figure that out, but really that is almost as important as the assists. That is why sports like hockey have two assists for every play, because it is important to be a facilitator.

Marco Belinelli's Biggest Fan

by montadaboss on Dec 11, 2009 3:59 PM PST up reply actions  

If...

…Vlad was actually one of our two best passers, we’d be in even worse shape than we are now.

by Zack Vank on Dec 14, 2009 1:57 AM PST up reply actions  

Freakin Nellie Man

Why can’t he just start the guy already. I know Smart wants to but he doesn’t want to step on Nellies toes since he’s just there to mimic Nellies style.

by bojangles408 on Dec 10, 2009 11:06 PM PST reply actions  

???

How do you know Smart wants to start Randolph? Hell he had a balls to bench Maggette and only play 6 guys in Dallas… so I think he’d have no problem starting Randolph if he “wants to.”

A Sonics fan without a team... but after 6 seasons now of GS Warriors season tickets have convinced me to adopt the boys from Oakland.

by mcwalter44 on Dec 11, 2009 9:20 AM PST up reply actions  

I actually get the impression that Smart likes Randolph LESS than Nellie, if that is possible

by randolphforpresident on Dec 11, 2009 12:09 PM PST up reply actions  

how so?

I haven’t seen any instances…

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

I told Randolph that Bill Russell would tell him to keep that ball in play and start the break.

RANDOLPH: "I know. But sometimes, you gotta let ‘em know."

(MT)

by kenntoe on Dec 11, 2009 12:15 PM PST up reply actions  

i voted for yes.....

but i wish all the good for vlad rad……he has exceeded ALL of my expectations coming here….i think he’s underrated…im happy he’s here

by Morrow is wet!!! on Dec 11, 2009 9:25 AM PST reply actions  

......

….. …….. …. …. . …… … …. . .. . …. . …. ..

"I could be chasing an untamed ornithoid without cause."

by olympicmike on Dec 11, 2009 9:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Is that you, Samuel Morse…?

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 11, 2009 10:14 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Oh, sorry.

I confused this thread with the Morse code forum that I frequent. (I’m tempted to hit up google to find out if such a thing actually exists)

"I could be chasing an untamed ornithoid without cause."

by olympicmike on Dec 11, 2009 11:52 AM PST up reply actions  

lol

That was a good one.

Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.

by Naticus2 on Dec 12, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions  

After the chicago game I'm really concerned

Smart needs to demand his players to man up, take it to the rack, play with abandonment and swing the ball on the perimeter. WAAAAAY too many jumpers and way to much one on one play. He also needs to pull Morrow out more when both his shot isn’t falling and he makes a string of bad choices. He doesn’t give us enough other intangibles to merit playing time when he can’t shoot.
Obviously, 19 minutes for AR is a joke. He could have gotten Noah in foul trouble. He’s been good on this road trip.
As much as I know we played bad in the game – the coaching sucked too.
So, if not Smart down the road as head coach – then who?

by tjmax on Dec 12, 2009 11:37 AM PST reply actions  

Not that the point needs to be driven home further, but…

Basketball Prospectus tabulates an individual stat called Win Percentage. A guy’s Win% estimates how well or poorly a team comprised of him and four average players would do. It’s not a perfect stat, but it’s pretty good, and accounts for defense much more robustly than something like PER. The top four players in Win% right now are CP3, Lebron, Duncan and Dwight, which sounds about right.

You know where Anthony Randolph rates in Win%? Tied with David Lee for 25th. By this metric, Randolph has been more effective than Paul Pierce, Chauncey Billups, and Brandon Roy so far.

How well does this guy have to play to earn a chance to start? Does he have to become one of the ten best players in basketball to get the nod over Mikki friggin’ Moore?

Ladies and gentlemen, your Golden State Worriers.

by onlxn on Dec 12, 2009 12:36 PM PST reply actions  

If David Lee is 25th, there is probably something seriously wrong with with win%.

Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.

by Naticus2 on Dec 12, 2009 2:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Sounds high to me too… if his defense had improved that’d be one thing, but his plus-minus numbers sure don’t make it look like it has.

Still and all, Lee’s having a heckuva year, and while I don’t think he’s the 25th best player in the league, he’s definitely in the top 50. These metrics aren’t perfect, but they don’t make huge, basic mistakes; if they think you’re one of the 25 best players in the league, you’re probably pretty good.

Ladies and gentlemen, your Golden State Worriers.

by onlxn on Dec 12, 2009 3:13 PM PST up reply actions  

What's wrong with out of control?

Does anyone else think Randolph, and the Warriors in general, are at their best when they’re a little out of control" When they’re running, gunning, flying all over the court, that’s when they’re fun and most effective. Playing under control is for teams that are patient, careful with the ball and usually big-man oriented. Fundamentals is not the strength of this team.

by dubsexaminer on Dec 14, 2009 12:08 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

I think if they could draft up plays for AR similar to Beans where he is cutting to the basket or pick and roll, he’ll be more successful.

by dubtown on Dec 14, 2009 1:51 AM PST reply actions  

Yeah, imagine him scoring more regularly with AB’s FG%!! Between his rebounding and blocked shots, throw in good FG% and he’s nearing all-star stats.

Welcome to the Pit of Despair! Don't even think about trying to escape.

by Naticus2 on Dec 15, 2009 1:52 AM PST up reply actions  

Ummm... yeah

There’s a reason AB scores more efficiently than anybody else in the NBA. It’s because what he does is difficult. You can’t just insert some random tall guy, use the same plays, and get the same production. Sorry, it doesn’t work like that. That’s like saying: “Hey, if only the Blazers would draw up plays for Oden like Orlando does for Howard! He’d be unstoppable baby!!!!” It’s not easy to earn easy dunks and layups all day in the NBA with positioning and footwork (you know, the stuff that happens during the play instead of at the end). Neither is it easy to No, no Nene! decent NBA players every day.

You have been DFiBrillated.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Dec 16, 2009 6:24 PM PST up reply actions  

well then if AR cant learn how to emulate biedrins’s game, a decent post game or some type of consistent jumpshot then I’m, afraid he might not be of much use.

by dubtown on Dec 17, 2009 12:38 AM PST up reply actions  

I think most people who see that Andris only scores on “dunks and putbacks” don’t realize this either. No, he doesn’t have range, but his touch in close is ridiculously good. Most players aren’t able to convert them as often as he can.

That said, I don’t see why Randolph cannot become better at getting some offense going near the basket. I don’t think that he’ll ever be the +60% interior scorer that Biedrins is, but it certainly seems better than seeing him miss jumpers from everywhere except for the right elbow.

by jae on Dec 18, 2009 9:22 AM PST up reply actions  

I agree on both counts

I think Biedrins is very underrated (on account of not having a pretty jumper). The Ws make the 2008 playoffs if Nellie plays him more. Would love to see a Biedrins, AR front court.

ES

by Free Zarko on Dec 18, 2009 1:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Hell, if Randolph just converted near the basket as often as he did last year, he’d be playing like a borderline All-Star. He needs to learn another move or two if he’s going to play down there, but that seems plausible. He has shown a real ability to learn new things.

Ladies and gentlemen, your Golden State Worriers.

by onlxn on Dec 18, 2009 5:50 PM PST up reply actions  

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