So many deck chairs, so little time- 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors season through 24 games
With the season now passed the psychologically all-important 28.012455% completed mark, it's time to assess where the Warriors are and what can be done about it.
For starters, let's get this out of the way. If anyone still held out playoff hopes, let them go. You're wasting valuable wishing on more likely things, like hitting the jackpot in the state lottery. The Thunder, currently 8th in the west, are on pace for 47 wins. To best that, we'd have to win 41 of the remaining 58 games. Even an outside shot means winning more than 60% of the remaining contests. While we are losing to Chicago and Detroit and looking lost against Philly, that sort of performance is tooth-fairy level fantasy. Getting close to 0.500 is going to take some awesome basketball from here on out as well, and unless everyone gets healthy and starts playing some good ball, and soon, I wouldn't hold out for anything there either.
Going out and not being an embarrassment every night and doing something that remotely resembles building on the future, doing *something* that makes us think that there's reason to pay attention in the future. That has to be the goal.
So what can be done there?
Let's start with the bright spots.
- ...um...um...
OK, that's enough of that. The bright spots haven't been that bright. Moving on with the "not burned out bulb dark alley" spots, Stephen Curry is putting in more time than a Warriors' rookie has in quite a while, with results that still suggest that they may have done well in the draft. No, he hasn't been the top rookie point guard. That honor likely goes to Brandon Jennings. Even though he's cooled of a bit from the start, Jennings has been rather sensational. And though his scoring efficiency drags down the overall output a bit, he's shown the ability to do everything you can ask of an NBA point guard and has done it well. Additionally, Ty Lawson hasn't played nearly as much, but in his more limited minutes, he's shown all the tools as well.
[For what it's worth, I never understood why the electrically fast Jonny Flynn was touted so highly and eventually went high in the lottery while the equally electrically fast Ty Lawson sunk to the late stages of the first round. Lawson was better in college and so far has been the better pro. Yes, Lawson's in a better situation, surrounded by better players. But that doesn't explain all of it. What he did in college suggested that Lawson was going to be better, that he would make more of his shots, and per minute on the court, hand out more assists and turn the ball over less and grab more rebounds. And that's exactly what we've seen in the pros. Denver is playing real well. Lawson is part of the reason why. Minnesota stinks. Flynn hasn't changed that. The future may change all of this, but for now, whatever 'reasoning' that had Flynn much more highly touted should be examined closely. Their relative performances are more or less what their previous play predicted.]
But getting back to Curry, he's likely here for a while and for the while, that still seems like it could be a good thing. He's demonstrated that he's the best distributor on the team (setting the bar low certainly withstanding). The assist total could be higher and it probably would be without the overall dysfunctional nature of the Warriors offense. The turnovers are a bit high given the number of assists. But he's shown himself to be a reasonable, though not spectacular shooter, efficient enough to suggest that he should shoot it more often and the offense has shown some life when he's been running it. Still he could and should do more. One suspects that Curry is still trying to show the detractors who said he was just an undersized 2 from a small school that he has the chops to make it as an NBA point guard. And he has shown that he really is a point guard, but now it's time to also show that he's able to put some points on the board, to use that sweet stroke he was known for in college to extend the defense.
So is there a move to make? Curry should continue to play. No huge change there. Calls to send him to the pine in favor of C.J. Watson, a player on a one year deal who by almost all counts will have his bags packed to depart the Warriors locker room for good come the final game of the season, seem a bit misguided. That is except for the fact that C.J. should play more, simply because the team has played better when he's been in. And in the long run, reinforcing lousy play across the board will hurt those who don't clean out their lockers come the night of April 13th, 2010.
So if Curry should play and Watson should play, the minutes have to come from somewhere. And right now, those minutes should come at Monta Ellis's expense.
Please do not interpret this as advocation for sending Monta to the bench, or ditching him entirely. But the nightly Allen Iverson tribute band he's cast himself in is not working out for anyone involved. Forty-one minutes of ball-hoggedly predictable high-volume shooting pads his point total, but makes for a stagnant offense where Monta's points come at the expense of a more efficient offense with a better distribution of the scoring load. At the end of games, opponents know that the shots are coming from a tired Ellis and when defenses can key on a tired player, they tend to win that contest. One gets the impression that Ellis thinks he needs to take every shot, and to some the extent that no one else should be taking 18 shots a night, he's right. But no one should have the opportunity to turn the ball over 9 times a game either. So far this year, Monta has accomplished that 3 times. As a benchmark, Kobe Bryant has done that 4 times in his entire career. An honest 35 minutes a night keeps him fresh and it just might help Curry to become a bit more aggressive when Monta isn't there to take all the shots.
So some Curry spiced with a bit more C.J. Watson, at least until his shooting cools, is in order. Still not the most exciting way to avoid catastrophe, and hardly something to feed our psychotic visions of success sometime in the future. For that, we still have to turn to the off-season's savior apparent, Anthony Randolph.
Randolph's rookie season was rather bipolar. He opened up as a wildly out of control talent who failed miserably in attempts to be an NBA SF, but started to shine as a big man, a rebounding machine with an ever climbing FG% once inserted into that role. The quite-possibly-overstated news stories said that he was putting in the hours over the summer, getting bigger and stronger and working on being the player we need him to be. When Brandan Wright went down, it looked like Randolph would see more time. When Ronny and Andris stopped playing in favor of some quality time with Tom Abdenour, it seemed like Anthony was due major minutes.
But the 21 minutes a night Randolph's averaged seems insignificantly greater than those 18 a night we've seen from Mikki Moore. Moore's previously mediocre to poor rebounding significantly over-predicted what he'd do this year. Apparently no one told him that as the only "big" in the lineup, his rebounding totals would be "padded" in the same manner some allege has happened for Biedrins (but not Turiaf) over the last few years. [We don't know much about Chris Hunter, but for what it's worth, he's been a poorer rebounder than Moore. Either he too didn't get the memo that his totals are supposed to be padded as well, or he's just terrible. Stop the hollering for Hunter, people. That's the wrong tree to bark up.]
More Randolph and less Moore would be a start. Yes, the foul rate limits how much time Randolph can be out there, but it does not explain why we're seeing Randolph on the bench more often than not. Has he 'regressed' some from the end of last season? Perhaps. But overall the trend still seems up. It's just perplexing why he's not playing far more often. At least we'd have something to hang our hopes on.
So what do we have? Reel in Monta a touch and push Curry to step it up and play Randolph the minutes his production warrants? No, the changes probably won't make a huge difference, but rather they try than stick with this Titanic mess that we're seeing.
Make it happen, coach. Those deck chairs ain't gonna rearrange themselves!
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13 comments
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Comments
for a disagreement, there'd have to be some sort of hope in GSW
and this team is literally the most depressing warriors team I’ve seen in my years as a fan (I’m 25, I’d say my first conscious year as a real warriors fan was Webber’s rookie year). The reasons this is more depressing than any year (and let’s get real, with Warriors it’s more like levels of depression)….
1) The rapid destruction of second playoff team I’ve ever seen in my life. The worst part is we traded them for nothing. Literally nothing, Brandan Wright is the best player we got in exchange (and i think he can still pan out but still)
2) Some of the worst coaching I’ve ever seen, and not cause of stupidity as much as sheer lack of commitment from Nellie. He looks visibly uninterested. I’d rather have just about anyone who has passion to teach young players
3) If the first 2 weren’t bad enough, the Injury bug just makes it worse.
4) With the injuries we STILL don’t play our ‘supposed’ future, and prefer Mikki Moore and Dleaguer
5) Our ownership is more concerned with a nice marketing photo-opt of Nellie’s win’s record than giving us a team we can at least feel good about.
6) The only hope I have is today is December 15 and Devean george, mikki moore, speedy claxton, CJ are all trade-able. (Raja and Vlad are eligible Jan 15?). If we can just get ANYONE with some energy to help out, the Warriors will at-least be more watchable. But i don’t even trust management to make a competent move. I fully expect these contracts to expire saving Cohan money.
To sum it up:

Was this post really a discussion killer in itself?
actually it was a good post and as you know duscussions within the post dont always have anything to do with the topic(people will get into who’s the top center in the NBA or anything like that). I think it’s more that 40 minutes after you posted this the big "rumor trade Randolph post was put up. I really havn’t even seen this post ’till today
by Loveisforfree on Dec 16, 2009 5:29 PM PST up reply actions
Nice read, and a rec
The brightest spot for this year is Radman and Bell. Because they are here, Jack’s not here. The flow has been better, the team has tried to play as a team, instead of grinding to a halt around Jack to see what he does.
If I had to pick a couple of, er, tiny-flashlight bright spots, they would be:
- The growth of Anthony Morrow. He’s naturally a great shooter, but not much else. He generally doesn’t take high risk shots or high risk moves that he has no confidence in. So it’s encouraging to see him have enough confidence to now try to drive and finish, or try to drive and dish, or basically try something else that isn’t all catch and shoot, all during a real game. It does look awkward when he does drive, and his dribbling skills are still terrible and unnatural to him, but I like that he’s not afraid to try it in a real game.
- Monta Ellis, the leader. There was a lot of speculation that when Jack left, Monta was unhappy and wanted to go as well. So it’s encouraging to see that instead of sulking and complaining, not only did he stick around and play, he took on the role of the team leader, the alpha dog, the guy who asks to guard the other team’s best players, the guy who tries to keep the team afloat. Now he needs some help around him.
Well, I guess those are the only bright spots that help us in the long run. CJ Watson may be playing better lately, but he’s not with us in the long term.
the only positive thing that has come from this season
is watching college basketball and seeing all of the great young talent that is going to come out in this years draft
I agree
that the greatness of Monta Ellis has been a problem. He’s taking too much on his shoulders, and now that teams have adjusted to him, it’s gotten ugly. I think the team has tried to correct for that in the last few games. We’re certainly seeing the ball in Curry’s hands more often.
I think the return of Biedrins and Turiaf will help greatly. For one,they will be great pick and roll partners for both Ellis and Curry, which should help the offense considerably. Secondly, their presence might mean the Warriors could hold their own while Ellis is on the bench, which would allow the coaches to actually give him some rest.
Fantastic, if grim, recap… agree on pretty much all of it.
Yes, the foul rate limits how much time Randolph can be out there, but it does not explain why we’re seeing Randolph on the bench more often than not.
Just to drive this point home: Randolph averages 6.2 fouls per 48 minutes, 30th-most in the league. A high figure, in other words, but not aberrantly high. And it may be trending downward, as he’s just above 5.0 fouls per 48 in December (small sample size, to be sure). A high foul rate does put a ceiling on the number of minutes a guy can play, but Randolph has not come anywhere close to his ceiling. Jason Thompson averages 5.6 fouls per 48, and Paul Westphal still gets him 34 minutes a night, through this process called “coaching” that I once read about in a magazine. Fouls would not prevent Randolph from averaging 30 minutes a night, and if his improved discipline holds up, he could play a bit more than that.
And just to toss out some other things we could do, as I’ve been banging these drums a lot lately:
1) Take a ton more threes, to try to actually wring an advantage out of our smallness. Structure plays that will get Morrow, Curry and CJ more shots from the outside, and if Vlad’s in, about the only value he gives on offense (or really anywhere) is as a spacing threat, so take full advantage of that.
2) Whenever possible, let Corey Maggette play the position he’s been good at for nine years, rather than the position he’s been terrible at for two. This is worth doing even if it necessitates putting one of our weak bigs (Mikki, Vlad, Hunter) for stretches. I agree that Hunter’s probably crappy, but no reason not to let him try to prove otherwise for 15 minutes a night, so Maggette can play his game. What’s the worst it could do, make us lose?
3) Keep more careful track of Steph Curry’s energy level, as part of his passivity seems due to fatigue. At this stage of his career, he is not a guy who should be playing 16-18 straight minutes in one half.
4) Be extremely conservative with Biedrins, Turiaf and Wright. Over the last couple years, we’ve seen a worrying number of early returns from injury, only for the player to hit the shelf again shortly thereafter. This season is lost; do not risk the health of our talented young pieces trying in vain to get it back.
5) Fire everyone who’s wearing a sportcoat.
Ladies and gentlemen, your Golden State Worriers.
One last grimly amusing tidbit, before I try to wash this team out of my head and attend to the details of my life:
After tonight’s game, our rebounding differential is -9.4. Over the course of a full season, that would be the second-worst mark in the history of the NBA.
The worst mark? Don Nelson’s 1989-90 Golden State Warriors. We are certainly celebrating the 20th anniversary of that record in style.
Ladies and gentlemen, your Golden State Worriers.
by onlxn on Dec 15, 2009 2:30 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Nice, enlighting read. Like your style jae.
Thx for pointing out that Hunter by no means can bring any “real” help. All that “Play Him” bla-bla bugged me a lot.
This season totally went to to dumpsters when our Bigs got hurt. Lets hope “We survive” this season without further catastrophes like horror-trades or career-ending injuries.
Randolph makes me sick by the way. Not enough playing time, maybe. But the few really good performances by no means satisfy all the hopes most of us have or had. If he was included in a “star”-trade, I wouldn’t mind.
"It really is a choice of whatever rotten fruit you fancy least." (Kelly Dwyer about NBA Franchise owner)
At least your post...
focused on the abject roster as opposed to the “Nellie has got to go” rants. This roster is a mess indeed – even without the injuries we are not competing with elite teams. Beidrins? Turiaf? These are our saviors? Don’t get me wrong I like them and root for them but this roster has sooo many holes the GSW are beginning to look (and play) like a D-League team. Players rotating in and out – new lineups/additions – people being called up and sent down etc.
I will agree with all of the Nellie bashers in this regard. Nellie can’t coach this team. However, the caveat is that No Coach could coach this team.
Listen – we as fans love the players and root with all of our heart for this ill-fitted machine to run smoothly, but it hasn’t and won’t as currently constructed. This article lends truth to that – don’t blame the coach for this mess: Ex. Bill Walsh coached Stanford to a 3-7-1 record his last year there because Stanford had become the equivalent of a recruiting outhouse – players came by to “do their duties” on their way to better schools – and Stanford didn’t have the talent. Even a good/great coach can’t win on a regular basis without superior talent. This is what the Warriors have become – an NBA outhouse – where some players come by to stink it up on there way to somewhere meaningful and others just walk by and say “I’m not going in there!”
John 8:44 -Ye are of your father the devil, and the lusts of your father ye will do.
by triplesix on Dec 16, 2009 3:26 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

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