We Believe Warriors' 2007 Upset of Mavs Ranks Second in B-R.com's List of "Huge Playoff Upsets"

by Nate Parham on Dec 9, 2009 12:06 PM PST

If you're a Warriors fan, you probably see the magical 2007 "We Believe" run as either a welcome break in the monotony of a decade and a half of mediocrity or lament its complete unsustainability.

Regardless, it was a special team to witness made all the better in the moment by the years of suffering that tested our collective commitment to the team.

Sometimes its nice when statistics reinforce what we believe we believe and quantify a subjective "truth" -- if nothing else, it puts our own perceptions in a broader perspective.

In the latest installment of Basketball-Reference.com's playoff upsets series, the We Believe Warriors' upset of the Dallas Mavericks in 2007 ranked as the second biggest playoff upset in the last two decades based on a formula calculating the probability of each team winning based on regular season production.

While it might be hard to imagine a series more exhilarating than the run of our Warriors, consider another factor not included in B-R.com's formula: the Warriors owned the Mavs during that time and finished the regular season with momentum, while the Lakers went 4-1 vs Seattle in 1994-95 -- getting blown out at home in their final meeting -- and limped into the playoffs having lost 8 of their final 10 regular season games. Given that Seattle had homecourt advantage, the odds were probably more strongly against the Lakers, reinforcing B-R.com's ranking.

Nevertheless, the entirety of the We Believe run -- including BaRon's dunk (is that pronounced like LaRon Profit, B-R?) over AK-47 -- was by far the most unforgettable playoff upset of the decade and given the record of futility we have to live with as Warriors fans, I'll live with that.

Related Links:

The 25 Biggest Playoff Series Upsets, 1991-2009
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=417

Poll

Was B-R.com right -- was the We Believe Warriors first round upset of the Mavs the second biggest upset since 1991?

Yes

19 votes

No - it was number 1!

112 votes

No - it should be lower.

1 votes

Wait - it's not 2007 anymore?

9 votes

141 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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Comments

Oh man...

I saw both… As kid I went to game two down in the Tacoma Dome and watch the Sonics stinking it up to a Laker team that really only has Van Excel and Vlade and not much else. It was just like the Dallas series in that the Lakers had played well against them all year and as fan you knew that an upset could happen, but you never thought it would. Vice Versa, having gone to two of the Dallas vs GSW games I can tell you that been on the other side of the story was great.

In my opinion the Warriors upset should have been the greatest of all time. First off, it was a 8 seed beating a 1, where as the Sonics series was a 2 vs 7. Second, Seattle lost when the first round consisted of 5 game series. They won game 1 by 25 pts, blew game two at home, then lost two on the road. In 7 game series they would have had a decent chance to crawl back into it. Where as the Warriors grinded out a 6 game defeat of the Mavs showing that it wasn’t just a couple of fluke games. Third, a Sonics fan could argue that they never really had a home game due to playing in Tacoma. Playing in T-Dome was a kin to having the Warriors play down in San Jose for a playoff series. Sure they’d get a crowd cheering for them, but it would be the base they had in Oakland or in the Sonics case Seattle. We only got tickets to the playoff game because another family friend didn’t want to make the drive down and back. Further more, the Sonics were a 57 win team and Mavs had 67 wins. The had one of greatest regular seasons of all time. To bad none of that played into Basketball-Reference’s formula.

A Sonics fan without a team... but after 6 seasons now of GS Warriors season tickets have convinced me to adopt the boys from Oakland.

by mcwalter44 on Dec 9, 2009 2:41 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

Great insight from personal experience...

That’s pretty persuasive in favor of GSW being #1…

To play devil’s advocate though, GSW was on a roll after the mid-season trade, arguably playing above the level of an 8 seed… conversely, as you said, that Lakers team was somewhat devoid of talent. The Warriors were sinking prior to the trade and played like a solid playoff contender down the stretch…

While performance over 82 games does say something about a team, the 2007 Warriors proved that it’s not entirely deterministic either: a well timed trade can change the entire face of a season. I’d argue in that series, the overall records coming in mattered a lot less than momentum and just a bad matchup for the Mavs, at both the player and coach level.

And all of that is what made that series great… but not necessarily the biggest upset…

Hmmmmmm :)

SwishAppeal.com, women's basketball...covered SBN-style... twitter: @qmccall3

by Nate Parham on Dec 9, 2009 3:30 PM PST up reply actions

In fact

Most Sonics fans would argue that the #4 greatest upset was their choice as the greatest upset in Sonics history. The Sonics were the #1 seed and lost to the #8 seed Denver Nuggets in five games (best of 5 series). Not only did they blow it on their own home court, but they started the series up 2-0. In fact, I have a moment in game 4 to ice the series. With less than 15 seconds left the Nuggets fouled Shawn Kemp with the Sonics up by 3. All Kemp had to do was it 1 of his 2 free throws. He missed both and Robert Pack nailed a three at the buzzer to force overtime. Granted the Sonics have every opportunity in game 5 to win the game both losing again in overtime. Note this was 63 win, best record in the league team (first post-Jordan season).

http://www.nba.com/history/94nuggets_moments.html

A Sonics fan without a team... but after 6 seasons now of GS Warriors season tickets have convinced me to adopt the boys from Oakland.

by mcwalter44 on Dec 9, 2009 4:56 PM PST up reply actions

Most Sonics fans would argue that the #4 greatest upset was their choice as the greatest upset in Sonics history. The Sonics were the #1 seed and lost to the #8 seed Denver Nuggets in five games (best of 5 series).

I would agree, that was a huge upset. BR didnt take head to head match ups in thier formula, thats one reason that we saw the Warriors so high on the list and the inclusion of last year’s Cavs and Magics ECF. Nobody saw upstart Denver taking out a red hot Sonics team back in the day.

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Dec 9, 2009 6:54 PM PST up reply actions