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Around SBN: Dan Marino Starting College For Developmentally Disabled

Are we the Youngest Team in the West? PART 2

It is not your beloved Golden State Warriors.  After doing some extensive math work, I devised a new stat that I call 'Actual Playin Age'(I know, not that clever).  It is a much better way to mesure the age of team than raw age average.  I decided to compare the Warriors to 4 other Western Conference teams:  the Memphis Grizzlies, the Portland Trail Blazers, the Minnesota Timber Wolves, and the Oklahoma City Thunder to see where we stood.

When taking a look at the stats you can see that not only are we not the youngest team, but we are not even built as a young rebuilding and up and coming team.  Observations on the other teams

Thunder's top 3 players in minutes played are Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and Russell Westbrook.  3 young guys they want to build there future around. The rest of the guys are supporting cast are veteran players and a few young role players to fill out the bench.  Building around those 3, they can change the other parts as they get ready to make push in the West.

Grizzlies's have played their rookie OJ Mayo more than they have played anybody else.  Followed closely by Rudy Gay.  Both of those guys are potential future All-Stars.  The next 5 guys that play are also very young players.  Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Hakim Warrick, Kyle Lowry, and Darrell Arthur.   The end of the bench is filled by veterans, in effect the exact oppostie of how the Warriors are constucted.

Timber Wolves's have Randy Foye and Al Jefferson, that is there future along with Kevin Love and Corey Brewer.  Corey Brewer is out of the season, and the Timber Wolves are bringing along Kevin Love slowly and seeing if Ryan Gomes and Sebastian Telfair can make it as solid NBA players.  The rest of the bench is filled with veterans and young a couple of young NBA hopefuls with Rodney Carney and Craig Smith.

Trail Blazers's are already an elite Western Confernce team. LaMarcus Aldridge and All-Star Brandon Roy are the team captains and lead the team in minutes.  In fact other than veteran point guard Steve Blake and ridiculuos rebounding machine center Joel Przybilla, all their roatational players 25 or under.

The difference from those teams and the Warriors is that they have a plan and we do not.  Maybe for the TWolves, Thunder, and Grizzlies it doesnt work out, but they are trying something and sticking to it.

What is the Warriors plan?  If everything works out and we might get to fight for the 8th seed and a 1 and done in the playoffs the next 2 -3 years?  It is nice to know that that is our BEST case scenario for our team.

On the tables below, pct refers to what percent of total playing time that player has played for the team.  For the Warriors, pct A factors in Demarcus Nelson and Al Harrington, and pct B does not.  We are still a very young team, but maybe not as young as you would like to think.  Actual Playing Age is a much better way to represent the team's average age than just the average age of the players of the team.

Star-divide

Golden State Warriors

Player

Age

Minutes Played

Pct A

Pct B

Jackson

30

1854

.136

.140

Azibuike

25

1557

.114

.117

Biedrins

22

1549

.114

.117

Crawford

28

1492

.110

.112

Watson

24

1283

.094

.097

Maggette

29

1213

.089

.091

Turiaf

26

1099

.081

.083

Morrow

23

762

.056

.057

Belinelli

22

696

.051

.052

Wright

21

524

.038

.039

Randolph

19

507

.037

.038

Ellis

23

432

.032

.033

Kurz

23

243

.018

.019

Nelson

23

171

.013

-

Harrington

28

166

.012

-

Williams

23

53

.004

.004

Davidson

24

14

.001

.001

Portland Trailblazers

Player

Age

Minutes Played

Pct

LaMarcus Aldridge

23

2013

.151

Brandon Roy

24

1909

.145

Travis Outlaw

24

1480

.111

Rudy Fernandez

23

1406

.106

Steve Blake

28

1276

.096

Joel Przybilla

29

1212

.091

Greg Oden

21

1053

.079

Nicolas Batum

20

968

.073

Sergio Rodriguez

22

931

.071

Jerryd Bayless

20

495

.037

Channing Frye

25

458

.034

Ike Diogu

25

73

.005

Shavlik Randolph

25

16

.001

Martell Webster

22

5

.000

Michael Ruffin

32

4

.000

Raef LaFrentz

32

0

.000

Memphis Grizzlies

Player

Age

Minutes Played

Pct

O.J. Mayo

21

2093

.157

Rudy Gay

22

1941

.146

Marc Gasol

24

1646

.124

Mike Conley

21

1525

.114

Hakim Warrick

26

1408

.105

Kyle Lowry

22

1071

.080

Darrell Arthur

20

967

.073

Quinton Ross

27

834

.062

Darko Milicic

23

744

.059

Greg Buckner

32

571

.042

Marko Jaric

30

271

.020

Darius Miles

27

196

.014

Javaris Crittenton

21

44

.003

Hamed Haddadi

23

14

.001

Minnesota Timber Wolves

Player

Age

Minutes Played

Pct

Randy Foye

25

1986

.150

Al Jefferson

24

1836

.140

Ryan Gomes

26

1747

.131

Mike Miller

28

1448

.108

Sebastian Telfair

23

1339

.102

Kevin Love

20

1318

.100

Craig Smith

25

1001

.074

Rodney Carney

24

646

.049

Rashad McCants

24

636

.048

Kevin Ollie

36

429

.032

Brian Cardinal

31

368

.026

Corey Brewer

22

307

.023

Jason Collins

30

203

.014

Mark Madsen

33

61

.003

Calvin Booth

32

1

.000

Oklahoma City Thunder

Player

Age

Minutes Played

Pct

Kevin Durant

20

2197

.163

Jeff Green

22

2073

.153

Russell Westbrook

20

1786

.132

Earl Watson

29

1474

.109

Nick Collison

28

1261

.093

Desmond Mason

31

1064

.079

Chris Wilcox

26

719

.053

Joe Smith

33

691

.051

Kyle Weaver

22

579

.042

Damien Wilkins

29

520

.038

Nenad Krstic

25

461

.034

Johan Petro

23

342

.025

Robert Swift

23

245

.018

Chucky Atkins

34

84

.006

Mouhamed Sene

22

23

.002

Thabo Sefolosha

24

18

.002

Steven Hill

23

2

.000

Team

Average Roster Age

Actual Playing Age

Minutes Leader

Golden State Warriors

24.1(24.3 17 man)

25.7(25.6 17 man)

Jackson(30) 1854

Portland Trail Blazers

26.3

23.8

Aldridge (23) 2013

Memphis Grizzlies

24.2

23.3

Mayo(21) 2093

Minnesota Timber Wolves

26.9

25.0

Foye (25) 1986

Oklahoma City Thunder

25.5

24.7

Durant (20) 2197

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

Comment 93 comments  |  7 recs  | 

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interesting stats, and pretty good analysis

I find the Grizz to be one of the most interesting of this group – if Conley pans out they could be outstanding. Even Darko is looking pretty good

"its tough to play with one eye, unless you're a pirate." Delonte West
"una canasta a Pau en la cara" Rudy

by Honka Playboy on Feb 23, 2009 8:24 PM PST reply actions  

the only difference between any of these teams is that don nelson doesn't have the confidence to play the young players, whereas other teams do

give the warriors roster to the three other coaches, you’ll see a difference.

and the blazers have more young talent then we do, thats it..

"so much losers" - hiero

by montamazing on Feb 23, 2009 10:42 PM PST reply actions  

+1

The Warriors roster for Trail Blazers roster is a given. But check out the Grizzlies top 7 players,not bad, and not one of them over 26. The Thunder have the big 3, which is going to be crazy good. Jeff Weaver is young and a solid role player. They have tons of cap space and a several draft picks to flesh out that roster and give Durant some time to take the next step to super star. Pretty scary stuff. We might have more young talent then Sota, but they got better young talent and way more cap flexibility. Sure Nellie forces the young guys minutes down, but we dont have the young talent, Randolph included, that those other teams do.

Durant, Green, Westbrook……..

We will probably need to be patient and let this season play out.
-warriorsvictim

by warriorsscore110 on Feb 23, 2009 11:53 PM PST up reply actions  

+1

I don’t see guys like Crawford, Jackson, Maggette on the other team’s roster.

Their notable vets are usually there because of salary and just waiting for them to get off the books. Most of them don’t even show up for team practice.

Meanwhile, the 3 guys I mentioned are big money makers for the Warriors. And they are, to a point, branded as franchise leaders.

by lightz0ut on Feb 24, 2009 11:34 AM PST up reply actions  

exactly

and I actually like all three of those guys to varying degrees (when Jax has games like he did during the Mavs playoff series I fall in love with him all over again despite the extension, its hard to see past my disgust for Maggs’ contract but I’m almost always impressed with his play, and I think I kinda take the opposite approach to Crawford thinking “well he’s not AS BAD as everyone says.”) But the point is this team hasnt commited to trying to win OR to rebuilding so they can try to win in 3 years. The flaws of their young players guarantee they cant compete in the very near future and the awful contracts of their vets guarantees they cant compete in the slightly more distant future. The Thunder and T-Wolves arent going to compete for a title in the near future, but they clearly have a direction and a plan. Jefferson and Durant are guys worthy of building around and both teams have at least two other starting quality pieces about the same age to put next to them. Both teams also have a couple potential role players about the same age. Both teams have collected draft picks and veterean contracts that expire in the next 2 years.

"It’s a hobby of mine. Kind of like collecting your fingernail clippings or pooping in jars." -olympic mike

by sam23 on Feb 25, 2009 10:48 AM PST up reply actions  

i dont have to break anything down and explain it to you. do you ever look at the standings?

if durant/westbrook/green/weaver core is so good then why are they the second worst team in the league. the only core i would trade for is portlands, because they’re actually good, the other ones are no better than ours. and i don’t think a coaching swap is necessary. to have 20 wins thus far, with the amount of injuries we’ve had isn’t bad.

"so much losers" - hiero

by montamazing on Feb 24, 2009 6:22 PM PST up reply actions  

So

you WOULD NOT trade Monta/Biedrins/Randolph/Wright for Durant/Westbrook/Green/Weaver? Is that what youre saying? Yes they have a horrible record, but thats because they are buoyed by vets like Maggette/Jax/Crawford. I’d swap rosters with the Thunder in a heartbeat. Barkley was talking on the Dan Patrick show today about how NBA franchises need to be dedicated to trying to win the championship with the core in place or dedicated to building a championship team and rebuilding while collecting top draft picks. He was talking about the Suns with their core of Nash and Shaq and what they should do with Amare in the offseason but it totally applies to us. Going half in, half out and half out while constantly picking at the bottom of the lottery does us absolutely no good. The Thunder have a very clear direction, a superstar to build their team around (Durant) a guy capable of being at least a 2nd or 3rd option on a very very good team (Westbrook) and several guys who look like they can at least be amazing role players (Green, Weaver, Krstic) Their future is a whole lot brighter than ours. We dont even really know what we have, but we certainly dont have a Durant, and we may not even have a Westbrook. And its not as if our current vets are going to be contributors on the next championship Golden State team. We need to model ourselves against the TRUE young teams in the West and determine which 3-5 young players we really want to build around and collect draft picks and cap space to pair them with. So, yes please do break down why you prefer Monta/Biedrins/Randolph/Wright to Durant/Westbrook/Green/Weaver. Unless, of course, a 20-37 record is the best support you can provide for your argument. In that case don’t even bother.

"It’s a hobby of mine. Kind of like collecting your fingernail clippings or pooping in jars." -olympic mike

by sam23 on Feb 24, 2009 8:34 PM PST up reply actions  

correction

they aren’t buoyed by vets

"It’s a hobby of mine. Kind of like collecting your fingernail clippings or pooping in jars." -olympic mike

by sam23 on Feb 24, 2009 8:35 PM PST up reply actions  

we don't have a durant.

but we do have atleast a westbrook. maybe not this year, but monta is certainly a better player than westbrook. and we also have a solid big man. something i can’t yet say for the thunder. i mean krstic, is not that good.

and you’re leaving out very good young players on the warriors roster, players that the thunder don’t have. the thunder have 3 good players, the rest are avg to bad. i mean weaver, do you really think weaver is better than azubuike, i know i don’t. azubuike is still young too.
here’s a list of thunders 25 and under player vs ours. you decide who’s better.
THUNDER:
kevin durant 20
jeff green 22
sefelosha 24
robert swift 23
kyle weaver 23
westbrook 20
dj white 22

WARRIORS:
azubuike 25
bellinelli 23
biedrins 22
davidson 24
ellis 23
kurz 23
morrow 23
randolph 19
watson 24
wright 21
williams 23

"so much losers" - hiero

by montamazing on Feb 24, 2009 9:02 PM PST up reply actions  

take all the bad one's out and you're left with

THUNDER:
kevin durant 20
jeff green 22
sefelosha 24
kyle weaver 23
westbrook 20

WARRIORS:
azubuike 25
bellinelli 23
biedrins 22
ellis 23
morrow 23
randolph 19
watson 24
wright 21

each teams best young players

"so much losers" - hiero

by montamazing on Feb 24, 2009 9:07 PM PST up reply actions  

I’d trade Monta AND Biedrins for Durant. I’d probably trade any two other Warriors youngsters for Westbrook. Thats probably Wright and Randolph. After that I’d say Seflosha, Weaver, Green, and Nenad are at least as good as Buike, Belinelli, Morrow, and Watson.

"It’s a hobby of mine. Kind of like collecting your fingernail clippings or pooping in jars." -olympic mike

by sam23 on Feb 24, 2009 9:26 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah and then we would be a COMPLETELY imbalanced team with 1 big man.

randolph has the potential to be an allstar and you’re willing to give him and wright up for a guy who has dont nada in the league…ok?

"so much losers" - hiero

by montamazing on Feb 24, 2009 9:50 PM PST up reply actions  

AND

we’d have Kevin Durant. Nenad isnt a bad rotational big guy, sure he’s probably not gonna be a starter, but considering theyll have a real shot at someone like Thabeet AND they have plenty of money to spend in FA over the next couple years I’m fine with being a “COMPLETELY imbalanced team” (by the way are we NOT a COMPLETELY imbalanced team right now? Last time I checked we were)

"It’s a hobby of mine. Kind of like collecting your fingernail clippings or pooping in jars." -olympic mike

by sam23 on Feb 24, 2009 10:34 PM PST up reply actions  

were certainly not a well balanced team, but i wouldn't say were imbalanced.

our only problem is most of our big men are skinny. but we have 4 big men that should be in the rotation but our team is completely out of wack this season because injuries.

look you can say all you want about the thunder core ( i think its a good start for a team) but they’re still the second worst team in the league. the only reason the warriors are at 20 wins this season is because of all the injuries we’ve had. i don’t doubt for a second that we would have 30 wins at this point minus all the injuries. the thunder don’t really have an excuse.

"so much losers" - hiero

by montamazing on Feb 24, 2009 10:45 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd say we ARE imbalanced (high scoring, no D, little rebounding=imbalanced)

The Thunder’s excuse is that they are a legitimately young team rebuilding the right way. (ie without signing vets for too much money and too many years when they block the young guys from playing and wont be around for the next really good Warriors team) Theyve got cap space, draft picks, and very very good young players…..we have overpaid vets, fewer and worse draft picks and pretty good young players. We’re mired in mediocrity, barring some miracle trade or lucky bounce of the lottery balls we are destined to be surpassed by the Thunder within a couple years…..and its not like we’re gonna do anything significant in those years. Whats the point of having 7 more wins when we’re talking about the difference between 13 and 20?

"It’s a hobby of mine. Kind of like collecting your fingernail clippings or pooping in jars." -olympic mike

by sam23 on Feb 24, 2009 11:30 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah and then we would be a COMPLETELY imbalanced team with 1 big man.

And thats exactly whats wrong with the Warriors fan such as you. Refusing to include Turiaf in a trade because we would be down to only one big man.
You do relize that the
a. The Thunder didnt build themself to win the championship this year or next. So they have time to flesh out their roster.
b.They have 5 first round draft picks in the first round the next 2 years
c.They will have tons of capspace this year and next

it seems that b and c will effectively solve problem a.
Can you relize the Warriors are not going anywhere the next 3 years. And, no, I am not being a pessimist, but actually being a realist and an optimist. How can we build for 4 years from now, when we actually have a chance to be a legit contender. To do that, we should establish a good solid core of young players and build for cap space and not worry who our backup center or backup power forward is.

We will probably need to be patient and let this season play out.
-warriorsvictim

by warriorsscore110 on Feb 25, 2009 12:05 AM PST up reply actions  

This team improving significantly in the next 3 or 4 years requires several of the following things to happen:

1) Monta has to return to form and show he’s at least a reasonable imitation of a point guard
2) Randolph or Wright has to start regularly producing as a post presence
3) We have to get lucky either by moving up via the lottery and not screwing up the pick or getting lucky with a later pick who outperforms what you can expect after the first few picks.
4) We have to get lucky with either a minor component in a trade or NBDL type turning into a legitimate above average player.

One of these gets us mired in mid 30s wins and we look like the Montgomery era teams. Two of these makes us on the verge of being a .500 team. We’d need three to really start being more than an afterthought in playoff discussions. There are other possible ways to improve but the current contract situation would make trades or FA signings that will significantly impact things less likely to occur. Given that none of the other four are necessarily probable, it’s not the brightest of futures.

by jae on Feb 25, 2009 9:04 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I still think you're selling the team a little short...

Let’s add:

5) Stay somewhat reasonably healthy.

If the team was healthy except for Monta this year, we’d be staring at “mid 30s”. If Monta had been healthy, we’d be at high 30s… These are, of course, “IFs”, and a team with Corey Maggette can expect him to miss a few games, especially as he gets older… so, I’d add health to your list, which makes it just a little more possible that we’ll actually show reasonable improvement next year.

And Monta returning to form and showing a “reasonable imitation of a PG” are two different things. If he returns to form, we’re mid-30s. If he shows half-decent PG skills, we’re better than that because Jax and Craw don’t have to try to be PGs and can focus on their strengths.

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 26, 2009 7:16 AM PST up reply actions  

quality over quantity-YES, I’ll take the Thunder.

"It’s a hobby of mine. Kind of like collecting your fingernail clippings or pooping in jars." -olympic mike

by sam23 on Feb 24, 2009 9:24 PM PST up reply actions  

But you forget... Quantity trumps when it can become quality!

Here’s what our quantity will look like in 2 years:

Player now——> Who they’ll play like in 2 years

azubuike -→ Corey Maggette, but like way better (and with bigger guns)
bellinelli -→ Manu
biedrins -→ Himself… but he’ll be an All Star
ellis -→ Tony Parker + Leapers
morrow -→ Ray Allen
randolph -→ Unholy mutant combination of Matrix & Odom
watson -→ poor man’s Gilbert Arenas
wright -→ Bosh

So our starting link up will look like:

PG Tony Parker + Leapers
SG Corey Maggette, but way better (with bigger guns)
SF Unholy mutant combination of Matrix & Odom
PF Chris Bosh
C Andris Biedrins as an All Star

and we’ll have a poor man’s Gilbert Arenas, Ray Allen, and Manu coming off the bench. We’ll be set. Plus we’ll still have a poor man’s Mutumbo (Ronny, referencing Mutumbo in his prime, not the 40 year old dude still playing) backing up Bosh & Biedrins. We’ll be totally set and winning championships left and right.

;-)

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 25, 2009 6:56 AM PST up reply actions  

oh man

I didnt scrole down far enough to see the ;-) or the name on the post so I thought it was a completely serious response for a minute. The Belinelli—>Manu line almost made me lose my mind.

"It’s a hobby of mine. Kind of like collecting your fingernail clippings or pooping in jars." -olympic mike

by sam23 on Feb 25, 2009 8:25 AM PST up reply actions  

A response from you treating mine without sarcasm would have been a gem

You should have posted it anyways, for comedic effect..

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 25, 2009 8:39 AM PST up reply actions  

ha

my spelling of scroll had enough comedic effect I think. In my defense I was halfway trying to pay attention in class while responding and halfway trying to recover from the shock of Belinelli—>Manu and Morrow—→Ray Allen.

"It’s a hobby of mine. Kind of like collecting your fingernail clippings or pooping in jars." -olympic mike

by sam23 on Feb 25, 2009 10:39 AM PST up reply actions  

pt3

not to defend, but can you do analysis w/ playing exerience over an nba career? Because I believe our team will seem younger then. Buke is 25 but its only his second year. Watson 1.5 years… morrow, randolph, kurz rookies. Monta biedrins were drafted in 2005, both have less than 3 years of legitimate minutes…..

it’d be interesting to see…. doesnt defend fact portland probably has better prospects,

by tafkasam on Feb 24, 2009 7:55 AM PST reply actions  

see my post on "value of youth"

It does similar thing based on playing experience. I am thinking about doing another formula which takes age and playing experience both into account, but the more interesting thing might be to factor in contract somehow. It would be interesting to see which players have the best combination of experience, age, and value.

by warriorsvictim on Feb 24, 2009 10:17 AM PST up reply actions  

Nice analysis

Great stats, I agree with a lot of it.

I still think that we’re the youngest team in the league, except younger in a different way. Just because we don’t play our youngsters, does not mean that we shouldn’t be considered a young team. Part of being young can also mean not being able to play, which is what is hurting the Warriors since Nellie is too scared to give the young guys any minutes (leading to us losing games due to having a short bench).

by Precise Films Productions on Feb 24, 2009 12:58 PM PST reply actions  

yawn

I have no idea what this has to do with anything on the Basketball court… whats next a pie chart showing who played more college ball versus high school?

How about which state they went to high school at? Was it a good state for B-Ball or bad?

lol

Useless stats man

by sjboy on Feb 25, 2009 8:15 AM PST reply actions  

naw

its not useless at all, even if the only thing it accomplishes is to render the lame old “we’re the youngest team in the league!” argument totally meaningless, its a great stat.

"It’s a hobby of mine. Kind of like collecting your fingernail clippings or pooping in jars." -olympic mike

by sam23 on Feb 25, 2009 8:29 AM PST up reply actions  

Umm...

How about the idea that if half of our team wasn’t so green, we’d have more guys who could realistically sub in for Crawford or Jax and they wouldn’t be tired all the time. It still has an effect. Everybody knows we play the older guys more, but the fact that there aren’t any other older guys still means something. Also, despite what you and WS110 seem to want to believe, having a ton of young guys means that they haven’t reached their potential. Yes, most of them won’t ever reach their ceiling, but if Monta or Biedrins become All Stars, Wright, Belinelli, or Randolph become useful basketball players, or Kelenna becomes a viable starter, etc. we go from a mediocre team to a decent team without any cycling of the roster. If more than one of those things happen, even better. Whether the old guys play now or the young guys play now has no bearing on whether or not our entire roster is filled with guys who’d otherwise be Juniors in college.

Look at it this way: If we had 10 rookies (all rawupsidepotential lottery picks) on the bench and 5 30 year old journeymen who got the bulk of minutes, would you consider the team to be young or old?

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 25, 2009 8:46 AM PST up reply actions  

The thing is,

our rookies and other young guys are not good enough to justify starting or getting starter like minutes, while those other teams young guys are that good.

If we had 10 rookies (all rawupsidepotential lottery picks) on the bench and 5 30 year old journeymen who got the bulk of minutes, would you consider the team to be young or old?

We dont have 10 guys like that, lets break down our 12 young guys.

Category 1
Close to Topping Off-Biedrins, Ellis, Turiaf, Azibuike
How much better can these guys really get. I think what we see from Turiaf(which is fine) is what he will probably be for the next 6 or so years before he starts to slow down. Biedrins and Azibuike can fine tune their game and improve small parts of it and make themselves more effective players. But we probably should not expect any more quantam leaps from them. Azibuike can turn himself into a solid starter and Biedrins might be able to sneak into the All-Star game 2 or so times over his career. Ellis is still the wild card. First, we dont know if he can get his speed back and become the player that he was. Second, If he does than we have to wonder whether he can over come the holes in his game to become a All-Star. I just dont know the answer to either of those. Worst case, he lost a step and is a shell of himself, best case he gets his speed back, works on his defense, 3 pt shot, and develops point guard skills and becomes a multiple time all star. My guess is somewhere in between at the moment.

Category 2
Starter and Above Potential-Wright, Belinelli, Randolph
Wright can and will probably turn into an effective starter. Unless his defense greatly improves or he also improves a jump shot, I don’t see any All-Star games for Wright. Belinelli,has proven that he can be a nice backup off the bench. A combo guard with a good shot, he is a nice change of pace player. Not sure if he can be a quality starter in the league yeat, but if he does, thats about as far as he can go. Randolph is our ultimate wild card. We just don’t know what this kid will be in 5 years. All-Star maybe, but he can also just become a burned out athletic freak that never put the pieces toghether in time. We don’t know.

Category 3
Solid Bench Player-Morrow, Watson, Williams
Morrow right now is near the end of Nellie’s bench only playing when necessary of injuries. If he work the rest of his game he can become a nice option off the bench for years to come. Watson really is not very good. He is a classic Nelson player that if forced to play, because we just dont have anybody else healthy that can pretend to be a point guard. Crawford and Belinelli are masquerading as points currently and they are doing ok, so Watson is back to 15 or less minutes. During Ellis’s 13 game return Watson had a sharp drop in minutes. If Ellis and Belinelli were healthy at the same time, I dont think Watson would of played at all. His shot is solid, so if he can develop his point guard skill to atleast a passable point he might be able to hold down the backup 1. Williams has the potential to be a good backup pg, but he wont do it in a Warriors jersey so the point is moot.

Category 4
End of Bench Player- Kurz, Davidson
Right now these guys are 13-15th men. Davidson’s height and Kurz practice work ethic might keep them in the league for the next few years. If they find a way to develop their skills and improve greatly, they might be able to move up to like 9th or 10th man on the bench.

We will probably need to be patient and let this season play out.
-warriorsvictim

by warriorsscore110 on Feb 25, 2009 10:14 AM PST up reply actions  

So we have 3 guys that might become All-Stars on our roster.

Portland has Roy who will be an All=Star for thenext 10 years and some of their other talent might follow him there.

Memphis’s tops 7 current players are all 26 or under. Sky is the limit for that young group.

OKC has Durant(guaranteed multiple time All-Star) Westbrook(probable future All-Star) and Green(outside shot at All-Star games. Not to mention the 5 first round picks in the next 2 years.

I would take a few quality youth to build a championship contender around, then several decent and wild card youths and build a medriocre team around.

We will probably need to be patient and let this season play out.
-warriorsvictim

by warriorsscore110 on Feb 25, 2009 10:19 AM PST up reply actions  

Maybe you missed my point on that comment

I was trying to say that we’re still young, even if the young guys don’t play that often. That’s it. I’m not trying to say that our youth is better than OKC’s or Memphis’. All I’m trying to say is that we’re f-ing young and it doesn’t matter whether or not they play.

And seriously, if Wright, Randolph, and Kelenna were on Memphis or OKC and getting 30 minutes a game, they’d be putting up pretty good statistics too.

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 26, 2009 7:25 AM PST up reply actions  

Look at it this way: If we had 10 rookies (all rawupsidepotential lottery picks) on the bench and 5 30 year old journeymen who got the bulk of minutes, would you consider the team to be young or old?

If we had 5 journeymen playing ahead of 10 lottery picks we’d have other issues. The Thunder have 5 journeymen on the roster, but they give them the bulk of their minutes because a) their young players are good enough to justify benching those guys and b) they are rebuilding the right way and the primary value of those vets to their team is the cap room theyll create over the next couple years or as cap room trade chips to other teams.

"It’s a hobby of mine. Kind of like collecting your fingernail clippings or pooping in jars." -olympic mike

by sam23 on Feb 25, 2009 10:23 AM PST up reply actions  

oops

didnt see WS110 had basically the exact same reply.

"It’s a hobby of mine. Kind of like collecting your fingernail clippings or pooping in jars." -olympic mike

by sam23 on Feb 25, 2009 10:25 AM PST up reply actions  

another oop

they dont give them the bulk of their minutes

"It’s a hobby of mine. Kind of like collecting your fingernail clippings or pooping in jars." -olympic mike

by sam23 on Feb 25, 2009 10:34 AM PST up reply actions  

Dont you think

The reason why guys who play are the older due to the fact that the young players are not even good enough to play?

If they were good enough they would actually get some playtime.

So in essence its even worse.

by sjboy on Feb 25, 2009 2:12 PM PST up reply actions  

I see you've never heard of the term "upside" or "potential"

You think everybody’s drafted based on their ability to contribute right away? Heck no! Randolph was EXPECTED to be a few years away from really contributing, but he’s a great athlete, and he’s got some amazing physical tools. If he puts it together, he’ll be awesome. That’s why he was drafted. Because he could become awesome in 3 years. What does that mean? We’re sacrificing performance this year when we could have taken another player who was more ready to contribute. Which means that right now he’s “not good enough to actually get some playtime”. But in the future, he’ll theoretically learn a bit more and do more than just “earn playtime”.

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 26, 2009 7:28 AM PST up reply actions  

I have no idea what this has to do with anything on the Basketball court

It’s curious why you’d admit this.

by jae on Feb 25, 2009 9:07 AM PST up reply actions  

I have no idea what this has to do with anything on the Basketball court

Well to help you out, it is basically saying that we have young guys on our team but we chose to put more emphasis on our veterans. While the other 4 teams have older guys on their team but chose to play their young guys more.

You can scream ‘Nellie doesnt play youth’ all you want, I think its more than tha. The point I was trying prove is our youth isnt as good as those other teams. I dont even think its close.

We will probably need to be patient and let this season play out.
-warriorsvictim

by warriorsscore110 on Feb 25, 2009 10:47 AM PST up reply actions  

The point I was trying prove is our youth isnt as good as those other teams. I dont even think its close.

If that was your point, why didn’t you say so in the first place instead of coming up with some statistical measure of how we’re not the youngest team based on minutes played?

And your assertion that our youth is not as good as that of Memphis and OKC is astounding… comparing our youth against two teams that have drafted in the top 8 the last few years while we’re drafting in the 9-14 range? amazing, what a conclusion. I wouldn’t have believed it until you pointed it out.

Those two teams have been actively trading all of their existing talent for draft picks and expiring contracts. Why not include a comment about how our old guys, despite their being 29 and having lots of NBA experience, are worse than San Antonio’s old guys?

Hey, did you hear the world is round and the Clippers suck?

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 26, 2009 7:40 AM PST up reply actions  

Fair enough, you make some good points,
If that was your point, why didn’t you say so in the first place instead of coming up with some statistical measure of how we’re not the youngest team based on minutes played?

I think that actual playing age helps prove that our our youth isnt that good, they go hand in hand.

comparing our youth against two teams that have drafted in the top 8 the last few years while we’re drafting in the 9-14 range? amazing, what a conclusion. I wouldn’t have believed it until you pointed it out.

One of the reasons that we finish 9-14, is because we bring toghether a mix of veterans and youth that top out around 9-14, with this current roster I dont see as doing that much better without a major shakeup. The other 2 teams in question are atleast trying to emulate Portland, and build a young core and let them develop and take the lumps that come along with it.

Those two teams have been actively trading all of their existing talent for draft picks and expiring contracts

There you go! Thats what I think we should do, seriously. We are not a good team, lets get some cap space and draft picks and rebuild.

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Feb 26, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions  

The problem with trying to emulate those two teams is this:

First, Memphis still has a lot of holes. They’re pretty sparse down low, their PG situation is marginally better than ours in that they have a #3 draft pick that played PG in college starting for them, but he really hasn’t shown that much. Memphis is not very good now, and unless they luck into a great draft pick, they’re not likely to get much better. Chris Wallace sucks. Their draft picks from LA will be at the end of the first round and have very little value.

Would you really trade our roster for Memphis? Monta for OJ is probably pretty fair. Gay is interesting, but seems to have regressed a bit. Would you trade Biedrins for him? I wouldn’t. Conley is OK, but not great. He’s better than Kelenna, but not by that much. Who else do you like on their roster?

Second if you look at Portland and Seattle, they’re where they are because they lucked into Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. That’s it. You can’t strategize to emulate that. You have no guarantee that an Oden or a Durant will be available, and you’ve only got an at best 25% shot if one’s available, and 45% shot if two are available. Do you really want to actively tank for 2-3 years straight before lucking into a good player? What happens if it’s not on one of those special years?

We’re also in a better situation than either of those teams were when they started rebuilding.

The Sonics had two problems:

1. Their only star, Ray Allen, was really, really old.
2. Their owner sucked harder than Chris Cohan and sold the team to an evil Oklahoman who subsequently removed everyone on the roster who Seattle-ites (or ans, or whatever) could identify with for the express purpose of making it easier for him to rip out their hearts.

Memphis… well, they sucked, they had one star, who wasn’t that much of a star anymore, they were getting old and weren’t very good to begin with. Their window was passed. More importantly, they are still run by Chris Wallace, who sucks.

Both of those teams had zero future in front of them. There was no “Well, if Randolph becomes, if Wright becomes, if Monta becomes”. Memphis had “If Pau becomes Wilt Chamberlin or Rudy Gay becomes Jordan we have something” and Seattle had “If I get rid of everybody, I can move the team to my home town, then I’ll be able to build something”.

We, on the other hand, have players who don’t suck and young talent that could mature. We’re not as bad off as they were when they started their “rebuilding”. That and Memphis really isn’t that great… seriously their young talent is marginally better than ours and that’s all they got. And Seattle took advantage of the Boston/KG situation, they took advantage of the Kurt Thomas situation (somehow getting 3 1st round picks from San Antonio & Phoenix just to hold on to him for a few months), and they lucked into the 2nd pick for Kevin Durant (or maybe it was David Stern’s frozen ping pong balls for his buddy).

If you take our current situation and just have us luck into Kevin Durant, our future becomes ducky. Same with Oden. Portland would be interesting without Oden, but you wouldn’t exactly be salivating at the look of their roster. How’d they get Oden? The same way we’d get Blake Griffen, or Greg Monroe, etc.

The mirage of rebuilding through the draft is that every year, somebody gets the future superstar at the top of the draft. Then they become good because they lucked into a singular talent. Then they get credit for their “rebuilding effort” and fans think it’s just a decision you have to make, when it’s really more about lucking into the first pick of the draft.

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 26, 2009 12:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Us or Memphis
Would you really trade our roster for Memphis?

Yea, I probably would

Monta for OJ is probably pretty fair.

I dont think so. OJ has a more diverse offensive game and is already one of the better defensive guards in the league while Monta may be one of the worst. Plus he doesnt have a major injury concern like Monta. I wouldnt hesitate to take OJ.

Gay is interesting, but seems to have regressed a bit. Would you trade Biedrins for him? I wouldn’t.

No I wouldnt trade Biedrins for him, but I’d swap anyone else on the roster for him. His regression is a concern but I’d love to see him play for Nellie and even with his regression he’s an excellent young player

Conley is OK, but not great. He’s better than Kelenna, but not by that much.

Conley is a true PG capable of running an uptempo team. I like Kelenna but I’d definitely take a PG like that over a decent swingman. Conley has also been a whole lot better lately, especially since Memphis shipped out Lowry and Crittenton and handed the show over to Conley full time.

Who else do you like on their roster?

-Marc Gasol is no Biedrins, but he’s a good young 7 footer who can board. And unlike most young big men he’s got a nice little post game.
-Darrell Arthur, I admit I have no clue how this guy has played this year, but a lot of people around here really wanted him last year.
-Hakim Warrick, he’ll likely be playing for another team next year, but he’s an ok youngish player
-I cant believe I’m about to say this but Darius Miles hasnt been half bad for them
-Adonal Foyle, hey who wouldnt want the Adonal back in the Bay at 1/10 the cost?
-Darko Milicic and Gregg Buckner, this summer these guys will transform into 11 million dollars of expiring contract. Can you say trade chips?
-Marko Jaric, the only bad contract on their roster and he comes with his new wife Adriana Lima. She’d fill the eye candy void Jessica Alba left and if she comes out to Oracle every night its probably worth the 6 mil per for the next 3 years that Marko is due.

Thing A

by sam23 on Feb 26, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Does Adriana go to games?

If so, let’s just send them Jamal for Jaric.

On the talent, if Monta returns to form, he’s definitely better than OJ, OJ’s a bit younger and only a rookie, his ceiling is pretty high… I don’t think I’d trade Monta for OJ straight up. Gay is definitely a better asset than anyone but Monta & Biedrins, no doubt. But he’s their second best player. Conley’s a nice player, but hasn’t exactly shown that he could become a great player. He’s averaging just under 4 assists a game, their team is one of the lowest scoring teams in the league, what exactly says “He could be good in a fast paced offense” other than his draft bio? He’s vastly underperforming, and I wouldn’t want my team to be counting on him to be the leading guy in the future. I just don’t see it. Maybe I need to watch some Grizzlies games, but I doubt he’d wow me. I guess Gasol is a rookie, but he doesn’t rebound that well, and he’s not that efficient of a scorer. I’d like to have him as Biedrins’ backup, but he’s the only halfway legit big man they’ve got (unless you count Adonal & Darko).

They’ve been very healthy and haven’t won very many games. They’re not a very good team, they’re even shallower in the front court than we are, and their PG situation is just as bad as their front court. Unless Conley AND Gasol become viable starters, they’re screwed. I don’t like that roster. At all. Maybe OJ will turn into Jordan and Gay can be his Pippen. I just don’t see what there is to like.

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 26, 2009 7:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Unless Conley AND Gasol become viable starters, they’re screwed

There is a pretty decent chance that they will become decent starters. And if they dont, they are not bogged down by any bad contracts(Jaric is a bad contract, but he is the only one), so they can rebuild quickly if they wanted to.

I would disagree that Monta is better than OJ. I think OJ Mayo can become a Joe Johnson in a couple of years, I have no clue what we get from Ellis in 2 years.

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Feb 26, 2009 8:57 PM PST up reply actions  

He’s averaging just under 4 assists a game, their team is one of the lowest scoring teams in the league, what exactly says "He could be good in a fast paced offense" other than his draft bio? He’s vastly underperforming, and I wouldn’t want my team to be counting on him to be the leading guy in the future. I just don’t see it. Maybe I need to watch some Grizzlies games, but I doubt he’d wow me.

Have you seen how he’s been playing since Crittenton and Lowry were sent out? Its a small sample size but in his last 13 games he’s putting up around 14 points, 7 assists, 5 boards, and 2 steals on 44% shooting. Those arent numbers thatll blow you away, but its very solid PG play, and I definitely wouldnt call it “vastly underperforming” considering this may be the longest stretch of regular minutes he’s received in the NBA. The fact that Conley plays better in the open court is what makes me think he’d fit well with an uptempo team not his draft bio.

On the talent, if Monta returns to form, he’s definitely better than OJ, OJ’s a bit younger and only a rookie, his ceiling is pretty high… I don’t think I’d trade Monta for OJ straight up.

A healthy Monta gets to the rim better and MIGHT have a better mid-range game. But OJ has a much better outside game and plays way better defense. Exactly how is Monta “definitely better” even when healthy? I agree with WS110 that OJ can be a Joe Johnson type…but with better defense. Monta may have come back too soon but he certainly didnt show us anything that should instill us with any confidence thatll he’ll return to form.

I guess Gasol is a rookie, but he doesn’t rebound that well, and he’s not that efficient of a scorer.

8.7 boards per 36 minutes and 52.3% from the field…..doesnt rebound well and not that efficient? Dude, those are decent numbers for a starting center. Especially for a rookie center. Like I said before he has a nice post game and, like his brother, passes well for a big guy. He’s not a worldbeater but he’s much more than “halfway legit”

Theyve got some very nice young pieces. Not as many young pieces as we do, but I think they are probably better pieces. And the biggest thing is that they have a lot less money tied up in ugly long term deals.

Thing A

by sam23 on Feb 26, 2009 9:35 PM PST up reply actions  

much better put than me,

Is it a guarantee that the Grizzlies will follow Portland’s success path? Not at all, but they do have a couple young studs to build around and very few bad contracts to hold them back.

They might be one veteran signing and a year of seasoning away from making the playoffs. And not the sneak into the 8th seed playoff apearance, like the Warriors, but start the first of many runs into the playoffs.

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Feb 26, 2009 9:52 PM PST up reply actions  

plus theyre a lot more likely than us to land a top 3 pick. Griffin would be as good a fit for them as he would for us. Conley/Mayo/Gay/Griffin/Gasol would be a damn good young lineup.

Thing A

by sam23 on Feb 26, 2009 11:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Assuming that they'll win the lottery is exactly my point

Portland and Seattle are better off because they won the lottery and got outstanding talent. Would you really point to Memphis as a team that’s nearing the end of a successful restructuring? Are they ready to compete at the next level next year? Without a lucky lottery, would you say they’re going to make the playoffs next year? Or the year after? If you’re assuming they’re winning the lottery, why not give us Griffen too? Adding Griffen to our lineup would be sick.

OJ is probably better than I give him credit for. I haven’t seen Conley play that much, so I suppose I’ll defer to you on that point… have you been watching him on league pass? Looking at his numbers and splits, he’s been getting more playing time, and that seems to be why his numbers are up. I still don’t exactly see a stellar player. 6.4 Assists/36 isn’t exactly world beating. 2.5 A:T is nice, but also not that special. He’s definitely a better PG than we have, but that doesn’t mean he’s a good player.

Gasol is old. He’s not a typical rookie, he’s 24, 2 years older than Biedrins. JAE can also help explain that his rebounding rate (8.7/36 vs Andris at 13.6/36) is not likely to change much as his career progresses, and is similar to that of DeSanga Diop & Andy V and counts for the 19th best rate among Centers, so not really that good for a center. 52% FG is pretty good, I’ll give him that much, but Biedrins is better. He’s an old rookie, he’s OK but not that great. He’s not very likely to get that much better. He’s two years older than Biedrins and much worse.

As I said, if OJ & Gay both become all stars, they’ll have something. You can say the same about Monta & Biedrins. We’ve also got a much better supporting cast of kinda young guys who can help out when the youngsters get in gear. Kelenna & Turiaf are already good side pieces, and they’ll be around for a while.

When comparing the lineups, I’d normally say youngsters are 23 and under, but we’ll have to extend that to 24 to include Gasol:

Our youngster lineup -— Theirs
Monta (23) -- Conley (21)
Belinelli (22) -- OJ (21)
Randolph (19) --Gay (22)
Wright (21) -- Darko (23)
Biedrins (22) -- Gasol (24)

Morrow (23) -- Arthur (20)
Davidson (24) -— Haddai (23)
CJ Watson (24)
Marcus Williams (23)
Rob Kurz (23)

Sure, they’re better in the back court but we’re way better and way younger in the front court. Unless they luck into the #1 pick and draft a world beating PF/C, they’re going to be SOL. If we luck into a world beating PF/C in the draft, great. If not, we still have 3 solid young talents down low, they’ve got Gasol, who’s older and not as good.

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 27, 2009 7:18 AM PST up reply actions  

But you totally ignored the point about them not having a ton of money tied up in bad long term contracts. Thats probably the single biggest difference between our teams. I never claimed Gasol was anywhere near as good as Biedrins, in fact I think I said something like “he’s not Biedrins, but he’s a good young center with a post game.” Yes, he’s a 24 year old rookie, but he is still adjusting to the NBA game. He should become an average starting NBA center, he’s really not that far off right now. Gay and OJ are both more likely to become all-stars than either Biedrins or Monta…..I dont really see how you could think otherwise. I still wouldnt trade Gay for Biedrins, but Gay is more likely to become an All-Star. I’ve only seen parts of 3 of Conley’s games on league pass over the last couple weeks, and while obviously the increase in minutes is the biggest reason for his increase in production he has looked pretty good. He’s not bad defensively, he’s very quick, handles the ball very well and makes good decisions. He seems to be growing into an average starting NBA PG. If they have average starters at PG and C (both under 25) and 2 guys who look like theyll become well above average at SG and SF I’d say they a have a pretty good foundation. Add in that theyll likely have a better draft pick than us this year and they dont have close to 30 million tied up in overpaid vets for the next couple years like we do and I dont see why you wouldnt like their roster. I’m not sure theyll be a playoff team in the next couple years because I dont know how committed their front office/ownership is to building a contender, but the pieces are there. They arent likely to be major players in the 2010 FA but Darko and Buckner would be attractive contracts to any team that could be. Its not a reach at all to think that they could add a starting quality young player with what more than likely will be a top 5 pick in the upcoming draft, and add a couple young rotational guys by trading those expiring deals. Whether or not they WILL do that is obviously uncertain, but the odds are much higher than they are of us being able to package a couple young guys and a contract for an impact player.

Thing A

by sam23 on Feb 27, 2009 2:54 PM PST up reply actions  

I thought we were evaluating the youth...
Gay and OJ are both more likely to become all-stars than either Biedrins or Monta

We can agree on the all star game, as for them actually being better basketball players, Biedrins is currently the best of all of them. Our supporting cast is much, much better. I’m still not buying that Conley is any good, and our young supporting cast is better and deeper. Gasol is not very likely to improve much. He’ll be a middle of the road center at best and a just under middle of the road center at worst.

On your argument that you’d rather have their expiring contracts than Jax, Maggette, or Crawford… maybe. While it is nice to have a lot of cap space, you still have to do something with it. They’re still a small market team, the economy is going to suck, they’re not going to be looking at a lot of revenue. Unless they get a sure thing, it’ll be hard for them to pull the trigger on a high profile free agent. Oh, and did I mention their GM is Chris Wallace? Wouldn’t it be nice if they had Pau Gasol instead of Marc Gasol?

You can imagine away at a $15M stud PF all you want, but if you’re Memphis, you’re either going to have to pay $15M for a $10M guy or get two $7M guys. They’re not LA, they’re not Boston, and they’re not NYC. They will be outbid by things they can’t compete with (big markets, cachet, etc.).

And their draft pick is going to be 2 spots better than ours, woohoo!!! I just don’t see it. Their GM sucks, their draft position is a crap shoot and not much of a better crapshoot than ours, they’ve got some talent and some expiring contracts, but we’re a lot deeper in the young talent, younger, and we actually have old talent, while they have Darko. They could have Kevin Love and Mike Miller.

I think we’ll just have to agree to disagree and watch Memphis either languish or flourish. We’ll see. I think we’ve got the better record for the next 5 years. Though inevitably one of us is going to win the lottery and everything will be moot.

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 27, 2009 4:07 PM PST up reply actions  

I thought we were evaluating the youth…

I thought we were evaluating this-

Would you really trade our roster for Memphis?

I’d say the talent level among the youth is probably pretty similar, but the fact that Memphis is in better position to get a better pick and dont have the awful contracts we have puts them over the top easily. 2 spots higher in the draft is kind of a big deal when you look at this group of players.

Thing A

by sam23 on Feb 27, 2009 6:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Biedrins is currently the best of all of them.

I would go as far as saying Gay is the best player on either team, but Biedrins is the most irreplaceable part on either team. I wouldnt trade Andris for Rudy, but one has the potential to be a fixture at the all star game, and one does not.

Our supporting cast is much, much better.

My contention has been and always will be that, supporting staff and role players are much easier to fill out than starters. I am not sure why everyone here is thrilled that we have Ronny Turiaf, a solid but limited backup center, I would much rather have either a young starting core, or an all star to build around. Its great we have good backups, but its much easier to have good backups than good starters.

He’ll be a middle of the road center at best and a just under middle of the road center at worst.

Dont kid yourself, Biedrins is a slightly better than average center. That is a rare commodity though, and he is young and payed rather well. We are lucky to have him locked up for several years. If Gasol can be average, they will have a nice anchor at the middle for several years to come.

On your argument that you’d rather have their expiring contracts than Jax, Maggette, or Crawford… maybe.

Whats the maybe? Why would you rather have 3 middle of the road veterans than capspace to sign complimetary pieces or 1 big time player?

They’re still a small market team, the economy is going to suck, they’re not going to be looking at a lot of revenue.

This is ultimately why they wont be a good team. They are not just a small market team, they are one of the 3 or 4 teams, that doesnt even make the bottom line, regardless of economy. While we can complain about Cohan being cheap as much as we want, he has showed that he will pay up to the luxary tax every year, while the rumor is the Mike Heisly is complaining about Quenton Ross’s salary.(Under 1 million) If Memphis is willing to go up to the lux tax every year, and actually make a play at an All Star in 2010, they will be a power house.

Oh, and did I mention their GM is Chris Wallace?

I think Chris Wallace is a pretty decent gm. He has good young talent and flexibilty in his roster. His hands are tied pretty badly, due to team salary. Even the Pau Gasol trade wasnt that bad of a move…

Wouldn’t it be nice if they had Pau Gasol instead of Marc Gasol?

Sure! But that team wasnt going anywhere with Pau, and they decided to rebuild. Cant blame them for that. Pau is a bordeline all star, and Marc is an average starter(hopefully for them). It was a salary dump, it would be more nice, if they actually would use their salary cap space.

You can imagine away at a $15M stud PF all you want, but if you’re Memphis, you’re either going to have to pay $15M for a $10M guy or get two $7M guys. They’re not LA, they’re not Boston, and they’re not NYC.

If theoretically they made a max offer at Amare, a year and a few months from now, its hard to imagine that he would take less money to play else where. Again the biggest question will be are they even going to be willing to play market value for big time free agents.

but we’re a lot deeper in the young talent, younger, and we actually have old talent, while they have Darko

A different way to phrase that would be, is they have a few really good young talented pieces and we have several yound medicore players. Our old talent is here for years and their less talented older talent is expiring.

I think we’ve got the better record for the next 5 years.

We are probably going to have the better record for the next few years, but they wll have the better record in a few years.

Either way as you say, we are going to have to agree to disagree. I think the Warriors just have no plan at the moment, other than be medicore enough to sell tickets.

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Feb 27, 2009 10:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Again

I’m not sold on the idea that Memphis’ talent at the top is any better than ours. You clearly disagree. We’re basically saying “No, he’s not that great” “Oh yes he is…”. I think they’re performance is slightly inflated by playing time and likewise, our youth is slightly depreciated because they don’t get the playing time. Our youngsters don’t necessarily deserve PT over the other players on our roster, but there’s literally nobody on Memphis’ roster that you would even think to play above their youngsters.

Gay & OJ will make the All Star game because of cachet. That’s it. Biedrins is and will continue to be a more valuable player. Iverson was an All Star this year, Bruce Bowen got more votes than Andris. We all know what a crock the All Star voting system is, so let’s consider real talent. Andris Biedrins is better than Rudy Gay. I’ll admit it, I like Biedrins a lot. He’s young, he rebounds very very well, scores efficiently, and has great hands. You clearly don’t like Biedrins as much as I. I think he makes up for a lot of the slack from our guards and he gets a raw deal from the fans. He fits into the “above average” group right now. At 22 years old.

Did they trade some of their draft picks to get OJ? I don’t get it. Nothing they have was acquired with Pau except Marc. Critt is gone. The rest are effectively early second rounders… except Memphis must pay them instead of having the option.

As for acquiring a talented big man, do you really think they’ll be able to outbid anybody? Do you really think Memphis would be the only bidder for Amare? The only way that happens is if nobody else is afraid of the economy… and they’d be one of the first teams to be afraid of the economy. If they dumped Pau Gasol (a legitimate star PF) for cash reasons, what makes you think they’ll ever fork out cash for a legitimate star PF, even if they could find one? How is that ever going to change?

Also keep in mind that we’re not nearly as bad as our record. We’ve have a ton of injuries this year AND we’ve had 2 major roster changes (BD & TMNT for Maggette & Crawford). We’re a decent team right now. We’re also the youngest team in the league, despite your newly invented statistical measure AND despite Jax, Maggs, and Craw being old.

Another thing, if Anthony Randolph & Brandan Wright got the playing time OJ & Gay get, they’d look pretty darn good too, not as good, but you wouldn’t be ignoring them (or throwing them to the side) when comparing the young talent on our two teams. Memphis just doesn’t have anybody who can take minutes away from their youngsters.

The Warriors are not nearly as bad off as you make it. I’d take our direction (slight retool with plenty of upside) over Memphis’ (blow up the entire thing for a few years and see what’s left standing… and hopefully win the lottery once while you’re at it). We’re even going to get a better draft pick than we deserve. We’ll be fine.

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 27, 2009 11:27 PM PST up reply actions  

I put almost no stock in the label of “all star”. What matters is how someone affects a team’s probability of winning a game. There is a loose but rather imperfect correlation between being selected for the exhibition contest and helping one’s team win.

by jae on Feb 27, 2009 11:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Fair enough,

but we can agree that All-Stars generally have more talent than non All-Stars. I cant remeber the last team that was relatively competetive without an All-Star(generally they have 2).

On a side note it would be nice to have someone at the

exibition contest.

Sprewell and Jamison in the last 15 years, are you kidding me?

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Feb 27, 2009 11:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Was Jamison an all star when he was in GS? I don’t think he was.

Generally, most all stars are the better players in the league. There are players though who are just as valuable as many guys who get to play (or moreso) who do not have flash to their game. I’m underwhelmed with Joe Johnson, a good but not particularly irreplaceable player who is an “all star”. He does not do as much to improve the team he is on as many a non-all star. Gay, so far, has looked more like the JJ model “all star”, one for whom hype is higher than impact.

by jae on Feb 27, 2009 11:56 PM PST up reply actions  

He wasnt,

for whatever reason I thought he was.

It is intresting that you would bring up Joe Johnson in particular. I happen to think he is one of the better players in the league and would love to see a JJ and Ellis backcourt(in fact he would be my favorite possible Eliis backcourt mate). His stats would show a highly efficient (the type that you would value) and versatile player.

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Feb 28, 2009 12:59 AM PST up reply actions  

JJ/Ellis backcourt

I like it, but I’mnot sure he’d be my favorite backcourt mate for Monta. If I could choose anyone I think it would probably be Roy, OJ, or Rose. JJ would probably be on my slightly longer short-list though.

Thing A

by sam23 on Feb 28, 2009 2:19 AM PST up reply actions  

On second thought,

Roy would be the ultimate guy. OJ would be good too, I think Rose would duplicate too many of Monta’s strenghts and not cover up his weaknesses, However no way we can get those guys, JJ is only 28 and his contract expires next year, possibly a sign and trade then.

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Feb 28, 2009 2:35 AM PST up reply actions  

oh ok

I youre talking about guys we have a semi realistic shot at then, yea, JJ might be #1

Thing A

by sam23 on Feb 28, 2009 11:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Johnson highly efficient? This season he’s 43% shooter (below average) and 34% from behind the arc (also below league average). His rebounding is nothing special for a backcourt player (but nothing horrible), especially for a guy who usually has something of a size advantage. He’s a good player, a good passer at off guard. He is not too much more than that though.

by jae on Mar 1, 2009 10:14 AM PST up reply actions  

I’m not sold on the idea that Memphis’ talent at the top is any better than ours

Are you talking about our top 7 players versus their top 7 players or are top 7 young players versus their top 7 young players(who also happen to be their best. if your talking about the first, I agree. I just dont think Jack, Craw, and Maggs are going to get any better while their young talent will. We have already covered their young talent vereus our young talent and we both have made our points and we clearly disagree.

You clearly don’t like Biedrins as much as I. I think he makes up for a lot of the slack from our guards and he gets a raw deal from the fans. He fits into the "above average" group right now.

Your right! I was cutting Biedrins short in my last post. To say he is slightly above average and a rare commodity is a oxymoron. He is a good NBA center and I am very happy to have him. I dont think he will get much better though, and dont think he is a franchise guy that you build your team around. I would think that you would agree, if not let me know why you think he can be a franchise guy.

what a crock the All Star voting is

Fair enough, All Star Starter might not mean anything, but I still think All Star does, when the coaches pick the rest of the players. Lets change it from All Star then to top 25 player in th league. Neither team has any at the moment. We have 2 outside chances with Ellis and Randolph while they have 2 really good chances in Gay and Mayo.

If they dumped Pau Gasol (a legitimate star PF) for cash reasons, what makes you think they’ll ever fork out cash for a legitimate star PF

They signed him to a big contract when they were winning and in the playoffs, and dumped him(and his big contract) when they were losing. A good management move. They did make a play for Josh Smith. True Smith is far from being an All Star but they made an effort to go after some talent. On my Amare comment, I was being hypothtical. My point was I dont think Memphis will have to grossly over pay stars to come there.

Also keep in mind that we’re not nearly as bad as our record. We’ve have a ton of injuries this year AND we’ve had 2 major roster changes (BD & TMNT for Maggette & Crawford). We’re a decent team right now.

You also can bring up Monta Ellis’s moped disaster, which would strenghten you argument. His injury was also soley his fault and had nothing to do with management. I would say we are as bad as our record. Fully healthy all year(besides Monta) would give us what, 5 more wins tops. My problem is that I dont see how this team can get much better any time soon the way the roster is now.

if Anthony Randolph & Brandan Wright got the playing time OJ & Gay get, they’d look pretty darn good too, not as good, but you wouldn’t be ignoring them

Per 36 minutes would put them relatively close, but I still disaree. Like you pointed out, Wright and Randolph play with better talent around them, while Gay and Mayo our the best talent on their team.

The Warriors are not nearly as bad off as you make it. I’d take our direction (slight retool with plenty of upside)

I respect your opinion, can you please tell me what direction the Warriors are headed in because i have no clue. Benching Crawford so we can see our young bench players play more hardly makes sense to me.

Memphis’ (blow up the entire thing for a few years and see what’s left standing… and hopefully win the lottery once while you’re at it).

If something doenst work, lets try something else. They might not of had the number 1 pick, but they might of won the lottery last year by getting the best player from the draft though(Mayo).


We’ll be fine.

I am glad you feel that way. I obviously dont. If Crawford doesnt opt out, I dont see how a 13th pick can make us significantly better. Being healthy and Monta at 100% helps, alot, but whats the ultimate goal? 8th seed and 1 and done? If I had a vote, I vote for blowing it up.

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Feb 28, 2009 1:32 AM PST up reply actions  

Benching Crawford so we can see our young bench players play more hardly makes sense to me.

This is blatant tanking, pure and simple. I don’t see what’s not to get. As for the direction, tanking appears to be the direction for the rest of the season. Afterward, we’ll have an offseason to get healthy. If you’re going to accept nothing but competing for a championship every year, I don’t think you understand how rare players like KG, Duncan, Shaq, Kobe, and LeBron are. They come around once every 3-4 years and you’ve got to get extremely lucky to win the lottery the year they’re available, or you can get lucky by taking a “project” and having it pan out. There’s no formula for getting one of these “special” players that seem to bring championships.

If something doenst work, lets try something else.

It hasn’t worked for just over half of one season… with extenuating circumstances. I don’t see any reason to change course just yet.

Mayo is not going to win ROY, Rose is. And the guy they could have had (Love) is tearing it up as well and would be a better fit because they have no other big men (OK, they’ve got your beloved Marc Gasol, but that’s it). he’s just not getting the publicity because he plays for an even worse team and Mayo has been hyped since HS.

If I had a vote, I vote for blowing it up.

Enjoy the rest of the season tanker. This is going to be what “blowing it up” looks like. I hope you like it… I won’t. Only, keep in mind that tanking doesn’t assure you of a great pick. There isn’t even a “sure thing” guy in the draft this year. The Oklahoma kid is good, and clearly better than the rest, but he’s no Tim Duncan, he’s no Kevin Durant, he’s no Greg Oden… he’s just a good player. Nothing to blatantly tank over.

On Wright/Randolph:

Per 36 minutes would put them relatively close, but I still disaree. Like you pointed out, Wright and Randolph play with better talent around them, while Gay and Mayo our the best talent on their team.

BS. That cuts both ways. If you’re supposed to be the best players on your team, you get plays designed for you, and you can do whatever you want. If you’re not, you’ve got to fit yourself in edgewise, play tough D to stay on the floor, and make hustle plays if you want to do anything with the ball because the team isn’t going to call your number very often.

Dumping Gasol may have been a good money decision, but it was certainly a bad basketball decision, thus their roster is much worse because of it.

On Andris:

He is a good NBA center and I am very happy to have him. I dont think he will get much better though, and dont think he is a franchise guy that you build your team around.

I’m sorry, I didn’t realize that Memphis had a “franchise” player. Surely, you’re not going to assert that OJ or Gay are franchise players. And if you’re going to say that OJ could become one, please explain how you think that’s remotely predictable. He’s got less of a chance of becoming a franchise guy than Rose, Durant, Oden, Roy, and Paul (who’s already one… how many championships has he won? How many has he been close to winning? Zero.). Additionally, the difference between a “franchise player” and a non-franchise player is much, much smaller for guards than for big men. A franchise guard is… nice, but it doesn’t make you a top tier team. If OJ becomes a franchise player next year, Memphis is a “borderline playoff team” with no big man and no future (unless you’re assuming that A) They luck into the first pick and then B) they draft a future franchise big man, both very unlikely in their own right, even more unlikely when multiplied together).

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Mar 2, 2009 7:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Ok,

good points like usual DFIB, but here are 2 simple questions that I was hoping you would answer.

-Is Andris or anybody else on our roster a franchise player that you can build around? Is anybody on our roster even a number 2 guy in your opinion?

-What is the direction of the team that you feel so good about? Why do feel like this team is headed in the right direction?

Just curious man, instead of dancing around the issue we can cut right to it.

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Mar 4, 2009 10:21 PM PST up reply actions  

If you're looking at the potential upside of things...

Monta & Randolph are the two that jump out most. And we’ll be getting a top 7 pick (higher than we’ve had in a while), so that could easily become your third. Andris isn’t going to become a “franchise player” unless he adds a good post move and can start sinking 15 footers consistently enough. Or he could expand upon “No no, Nene!” to include “No no, Kobe!”, etc. (see my sig).

So, Monta & Randolph could become franchise players, Monta needs to learn to distribute (that ability is still a complete unknown) and Randolph needs to learn how to play within himself, get a little more experienced, and figure out how to best use his athleticism. He’s a phenomenal athlete and has a lot of fire… he just needs to learn how to direct it and add some of those “NBA style” skills like playing smart, playing excellent team defense, and adding some range to his jump shot.

As for our direction, keep in mind that our comparison here has been with Memphis, not the league in general. I’d rather be OKC or the Lakers, to look at two extremes. OKC has done an excellent job of amassing draft picks and they lucked into KD. The Lakers were falling off, made a solid pick in Bynum waited for him to flourish and took advantage of Memphis to acquire Pau. OKC blew it up and lucked into KD. The Lakers re-tooled. I’d rather be them. But if we’re doing the “poor man’s Lakers retooling”, then Memphis is doing the “poor man’s OKC blow up”. There are plenty of teams’ rosters I’d rather have, but Memphis certainly isn’t one of them.

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Mar 5, 2009 6:41 AM PST up reply actions  

Far, far too often the term “franchise player” gets used without it really meaning something useful in discussion. I’m not sure exactly what everyone means by it. Some use it loosely and seem to apply it to just about any leading scorer on a team, some use it to mean a player who is so dominant that once you have him, you add pieces around because the probability of adding an upgrade at his position is ridiculously low and he’s good enough that you can win a championship when surrounding him with the right players. Some mean something in between.

If the goal of the franchise is to win a championship, there’s far, far fewer ‘franchise players’ than there are franchises. Right now, I think there’s only 5 or 6 “franchise players” in the league, guys so good that they lift their team’s odds of winning enough on their own to reasonably expect that you can win a championship by putting the right players around them. There’s a couple more (like Durant) who seem to be on the trajectory that they might be that good, but aren’t yet.

And then there’s a whole collection of “superstars” that are almost impossible to upgrade over, but cannot win a championship if they’re the most productive player on their team. (I use the term “productive” instead of ‘best’ as the latter is more subjective and just starts arguments where the Kobe apologists say he’s the best over and over again.)

The level of production that the small handful of truly elite guys give regularly match what Monta did in his amazing month. I really doubt he becomes the “franchise player” in the sense of a guy like Paul or Howard or Lebron who provide enough punch at one spot in the lineup to make it possible to reshuffle the rest and find a sufficient supporting cast.

As critical as I was of Randolph, he’s showing more and more that he has a chance to get there, remote as it may be. He’s a magnet for the ball. Having the ball is critically important because you need it to score and when you have it, the opposition cannot score.

by jae on Mar 5, 2009 9:18 AM PST up reply actions  

Yep

Let’s call them “special” rather than “franchise”. It’s even more nebulous but doesn’t connote “championship”

The only reason I included Monta was because of his one magical month AND the fact that he hasn’t had a chance to show what he can do as a PG/primary ball handler. If he can get back to his old speed, if he can further hone his mid-range game, and if he can learn where his teammates will be when he draws the double/triple teams, then he’ll be a truly special player.

Randolph has the athleticism and the motor to be special, he needs to learn where and how to direct it and add a few learnable skills.

Both of these players require big ifs, certainly, but the possibility is definitely there… which is all you can ask for in a rookie. And we still don’t really know what Monta can do with the job of being a distributor, it could be good or it could be bad. We’ll see.

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Mar 5, 2009 10:05 AM PST up reply actions  

I suspect that the odds of Randolph becoming that special player is greater than Monta somehow showing that he’s a top quality distributor. It is rare that someone becomes an elite point guard (and that’s what we’re talking about —not a very good combo guard ala Arenas, who is not an elite franchise player) in the NBA if he hasn’t previously shown that tendency as a distributor. He can improve certainly, and probably will, but I don’t think we really need to see him handed PG duties full time to realize that he’s not ever going to have Baron’s passing and ball handling abilities. It might not be something you’re born with, but it doesn’t seem to develop later in a player’s career to turn a shoot first off guard into the sort of distributor to direct an entire offense. It just seems that if there was much more than the remotest long shot, there’s be some easier to find examples for a career path. There aren’t. The elite point guards were already point guards when they entered the league.

And that’s really pretty close to what we’d need for him to be the elite ‘franchise player’, coupling high percentage scoring (no matter how he does it) with high productivity distribution without a glaring hole (e.g inability to rebound, major turnovers). There’s a reason why there aren’t more Chris Pauls or the Steve Nash of a couple years ago, guys who scored significantly and efficiently while also controlling and directing possessions at a top level. Anything less than morphing into that and he maxes out at a supporting all-star, something that can keep you in the playoffs, but still requires a better player somewhere else in the lineup if you want to contend.

by jae on Mar 5, 2009 11:14 AM PST up reply actions  

'franchise player' is a very vauge term,

I generally use it to describe an All Star Caliber player that you can feel good about building your team around. If you get the right pieces said ’franchise player can put you in the top 5 teams that are in the hunt for the championship.

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Mar 5, 2009 11:14 AM PST up reply actions  

That’s a good definition, though I think people think that a larger number of players can actually put you in the hunt for a championship than really have such an ability. I don’t think it’s an accident that a tiny number of teams have had the lion’s share of championships for the last couple decades. Again, I think there’s maybe 6 ‘franchise players’ in the league now.

by jae on Mar 5, 2009 11:21 AM PST up reply actions  

James
Wade
Paul
Bryant
Duncan
Roy
Howard
Garnett

Some combination of those players probably make up your top 6. Getting those guys is hard almost pure luck and only Garnett on that list has changed teams. Those are the guys that you can surrond immediately with solid role players and they immediately put you in the hunt. However there are about 10 other players that I would feel good about building your franchise around, maybe you call them ‘franchise players’ maybe you dont. But you cant sit and wait for a Bryant, James, or Duncan, to fall in your lap.
I would feel good building around Carmelo Anthony for example. If I think about I can probably list 8 other players. Not sure what we can call those players. ‘Not Good Enough to Win the Championship but Good Enough to Keep you Very Competetive Players?’

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Mar 5, 2009 11:35 AM PST up reply actions  

Pretty close. Roy isn’t there yet and may not be ever. Despite being an immensely talented athlete, Bryant is a bubble on that list. He continues to show that without an all-star productivity big man, he anchors a borderline playoff team. Gasol is very, very good though as is Bynum so that combo could do it. A couple years ago Nash was there, as was Shaq. (Both changed teams over their career.) Nowitzki flirted with that list as well.

‘Melo is exactly the type of player that I think teams try to build around and fans and management feel good about, but aren’t going to win championships unless they’re Paul Pierced into it (e.g. find themselves alongside an elite player like Garnett). There’s a half dozen or so players like this (like Bosh most likely) who as their careers wind on will get criticized for ‘not having the drive to win’ when in fact it’s simply that they were just not quite that elite talent or were consistently surrounded by a such a subpar cast as to make it impossible (like Garnett pre-Celtics — I guess the Celtics ordered out for extra “drive” when they got him).

by jae on Mar 5, 2009 12:48 PM PST up reply actions  

I also feel very good about Ellis and Randolph,

the big question mark about Ellis, can he get back to form, and what happens then. Can he take the next step with his game? Randolph has looked very good lately, he is still a wild card in my book.

As for our direction, keep in mind that our comparison here has been with Memphis, not the league in general

Point taken. After thinking it over, I would still swap our roster with Memphis, but jut because of their roster flexibility. While Ellis and Randolph might become special players, there is still a very good chance that they don’t. I agree 100% about OKC’s direction and that is the ideal direction a franchise should take, in my book. Load up on draft picks, sign solid veteran role players to hold down the ship, keep the salary cap flexiable, and when you do land a player or 2 that you can feel good about, then you strike out and sign a ‘good’ free agent and role players to fill out the roster and tweak the roster as you go along.

My fustration with the Warriors boils down to the Maggette signing. Without Baron, our team wasnt going to compete, and thats ok. Offering Brand a big deal was good because he is a very good player. I would of also been ok with going after Josh Smith and Emeka Okafor because they are young and can become elite players. If we cant get them, fine, we wait 2 years when Jackson, Harrington, and Foyle come off the books. Maggette doesnt make any sense. He is not good enough to take us to the playoffs, let alone past the first round, and he ties down the salary cap for years. The moves is a move that keeps us good enough to compete for the 8th seed(and we would have if we did not have to deal with the Moped situation), so the fans will still come and buy tickets and thats what makes it so fustrating for me at the moment.

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Mar 5, 2009 11:30 AM PST up reply actions  

I do not think that Josh Smith will ever become an elite player. He is an exciting player, but there is very much missing in his game to suggest he’ll become elite. His scoring efficiency isn’t great and he isn’t a great rebounder. Very little in his game has substantially improved since he came into the league as well. Breaking the bank for him would have been a big mistake.

by jae on Mar 5, 2009 12:51 PM PST up reply actions  

JAE...

I wanted to ask you something and I guess this is as good a place as any. I have been tinkering with the formula for that “playmaker rating” that I posted about in another thread (during the discussion about Jackson’s turnovers and how much he helps a team). If I come up with something concrete that looks interesting do you think you might be able to run the numbers for me.

I have no idea how involved it would be and I don’t want to be presumptuous about your interest in taking part in something like that but I think it might be a worthwhile metric now that I’ve spent a little more time tinkering with it.

If you have the time, ability and interest to do something like that and wouldn’t mind running the numbers for me in your spare time let me know and I can post the finished formula when I’m happy with it.

If not it’s no big deal. Either way I’d love to get your feedback on it when I’m finished.

Thing 2

by olympicmike on Mar 5, 2009 1:05 PM PST up reply actions  

If you come up with anything, lemme know. I’d certainly take a look at it.

by jae on Mar 5, 2009 4:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Thanks...

I’d really appreciate that. I’m still testing some things out on a small scale just to see if it the results make sense and might be good for anything.

I think I’m going to end up keeping it pretty simple. The overall idea being that this would give you a good idea of what will happen when you put the ball in a guys hands. I don’t want to try to factor in every part of the game, I just want to weigh the positive and negative outcomes of a guy trying to make plays offensively.

So far the results make sense. The guys who are on the floor primarily to make plays (for themselves or others) and can do so without making many mistakes end up with a good rating. Guys like Jackson and Iverson score rather poorly for their position. I’ll look at it a little more tonight and if it continues to make sense when I test it on a few more players I’ll post it for you to check out.

Thanks again.

Thing 2

by olympicmike on Mar 5, 2009 4:58 PM PST up reply actions  

My whole point initially was that OKC's situation is predicated on lucking into the #2 draft pick from the #6 slot in the year that both KD & Oden are available

That’s not some thing you can really try to duplicate. Remember, Memphis had the #1 slot that year and got stuck with Conley instead of Oden. Memphis clearly did the best tank job that year and failed, only then did they blow everything up by trading Pau. If they’d got Oden to pair with Pau, they’d be a formidable force already (assuming Oden doesn’t keep getting injured). It’s all predicated on the ping pong balls and who’s available in the year in which you get lucky.

Remember, Baron was the only thing we lost in the offseason from a 48 win team. He was not an efficient scorer, but he was able to distribute. He showed up sometimes, but not others. We shouldn’t have had much of a drop off from Baron to Maggette. Everything else that happened just compounded on each other. Smith, Okafor, and Brand all got paid much more than Corey, two of which resigned with their current team. It wasn’t going to happen. Corey was just about the best we could do, and if we hadn’t signed him, Monta & Biedrins would now be overpaid because they would have negotiated for more. The moves were good enough to keep us in 8th place while the youngsters like Anthony Randolph, Andris Biedrins, Monta Ellis, Marco Belinelli, and Brandan Wright found their spot on the roster. We would have been good enough to compete for the 8th spot while the youngsters were growing, that’s a fantastic direction for a team who’s only positive occurance the last dozen years has been a lucky fluke foray into the playoffs where they got paired with the only team they would have beaten. Would you rather have that or just cut salary, become a terrible team, and hope that you get lucky enough to draft the next Kevin Durant? I’d much rather be in playoff contention with my youngsters, so we can build a winning culture.

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Mar 6, 2009 6:47 AM PST up reply actions  

Portland’s record was worse than ours at this time last year, would it have been crazy to swap rosters with them?

Thing A

by sam23 on Mar 2, 2009 9:25 AM PST up reply actions  

Ok thats your choice,

if you would prefer a 20 win team than a 15 win team, I guess thats ok and it makes sense. However the team with a better chance of gettin out of the lottery is Memphis, so I would rather take them.

13th-14th pick in the draft or die trying!

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Mar 2, 2009 11:01 AM PST up reply actions  

Nellihater

Atleast you wear it on your sleave.

Davis still sucks, and is a bigger loser because his team has the worst record in the NBA, and he is playing like crap and only plays when he wants to.

Thats punk material and thats exactly why he left the Hornets in a bad way and same thing with the Warriors, and Mike dunleavy and him already dont get along.

DAVIS = Punk.

We did not lose him, he lost himself.

You ever look up injuries? I mean Miami won like 20 games ( or something like that ) last year. Was Pat Riley a loser too? Oh waitr their superstar was hurt all year. So what the heck do you think Monta Ellis is?

Seriously there should be a disclaimer on the front page:

BEFORE YOU HATE KNOW THIS:
We have been the most injured team in the NBA this season
We overachieved last year with 48 wins
We are a very young team
We play in the Toughest conference
We’re playing for the future.

Have a nice day

by sjboy on Feb 25, 2009 2:16 PM PST reply actions  

Monta Ellis and D. Wade

Your saying our superstar was hurt but do you really think Monta Ellis will be the Monta he once was maybe? I for one don’t think so and if so it might take awhile.

by Darkness on Feb 25, 2009 7:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Interesting you chose DWade...

He’s tearing it up this year:

http://www.nba.com/playerfile/dwyane_wade/

29/5/7… and he looks super suave in his suit on his NBA page… Seriously, Buke is scratching his behind in his photo, while DWade gets to pick and choose his best photo from the GQ photoshoot. Warriors get no love.

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 26, 2009 7:42 AM PST up reply actions  

It's certainly close, but I still think we've had it a little worse

Monta & Kaman cancel each other out, but Monta’s way more important to us.
Randolph & Maggette just about cancel each other out, but remember Maggette played 20 games on injured hamstrings when he should have been resting.
Jax & BD cancel each other out.
Camby’s missed a few games, but Belinelli & Wright have missed a lot more.

We look like we could get healthy soon, so maybe they’ve got a worse outlook for the rest of the season, but both teams are going to be holding their players out so they can tank… err… both teams will be cautious with players coming back from injuries, don’t want to re-injure anybody, right?

"No no Nene!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB5DxNl4EB0

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 26, 2009 7:50 AM PST up reply actions  

Clippers

I guess were as good as the Clippers :/

by Darkness on Feb 26, 2009 5:06 PM PST up reply actions  

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