Open Thread: 2009 NBA Lottery

We would win the lottery only to pick Gerald Henderson.

greg monroe, jeff teague, or al-farouq aminu are my picks that are actually practical.

 Haha, they deserve it for being so gullible. I bet they try to kick that football again next season.

J-Rich and Barnes are journeymen. Their going to be on different teams most likely again next year.

Scouting AND drafting from the D-League! Keith Clark and Trey Gilder are both draft eligible this season!!

Love it?

They continue to fill up the arena while other teams with much better records have half filled arenas. I was watching a Spurs game the other day and was amazed how little people there were at the game.

I’m not sure which is a bigger blast from the past: the Yi movement, or posts by OZ and Zig…

For the record, I’m totally on board the random foreign prospect to hype up to no end to humor ourselves and pass time in a somewhat productive if not annoying way movement. Let the random foreign prospect to hype up to no end to humor ourselves and pass time in a somewhat productive if not annoying way movement begin!

  I’d kill for some Baumerworld these days , that guy was seriously hilarious.

It’s all about the 2nd round! And a special someone is going to go undrafted and get picked up by Golden State in the offseason.

we should pick JOHN WALL. He’s gonna be a star!

Well…at least we have optimism.

the ultimate backcourt weeeeeeee!!!!! Monta + Curry = 50 point a night with the opposing team scoring 157!!!

to get the Thunder to win as many games as possible so the Warriors can get ahead in the lotto balls! They just beat San Antonio….only 4.5 games behind!

   Invoke the power of Adonal

Even though Nellie’s showing a deftness in tanking that I didn’t think he had in him, the odds of us getting one of the worst few records in the league is low. Right now we own the 7th worst record in the league by winning %, at 23-43 (.348). The 6 teams below us in the standings are truly awful and it’s tough to see how we really finish with a worse record than them.

If the lottery were held today, according the ESPN’s lottery / draft machine (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/lottery2009/mockdraft) we’d have a 4.3% chance of winning it all. That should mean that we have an even greater chance of getting a top-3 pick (which is what the lottery is for – after that it goes by reverse record). I don’t know how the math works but I would think you could just multiply the 4.3% by 3 to get our current odds of a top 3 pick at 12.9%. Not that bad but not that good, either. If we’re not in the top 3 that would mean at best we’d have the 7th pick, and at worst we’d have 10th pick (though the odds of that are unbelievably low, b/c then none of the worst 7 teams would have won a top 3 pick, but I digress…).

Working from the 6th worst spot backwards, Minnesota has lost Al Jefferson and Corey Brewer, so how do they really win games? I don’t see it. The Oklahoma Thieves have been playing a lot better and have a healthy Durant now, so I can see them passing us. But, with only 17 games left, are they going to win 4 or more games than we will, which they’d have to do to pass us in the standings? Not so sure of that; it could be close. Memphis has OJ Majo, Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and not much else. Those guys are good but not that good. This is a truly talentless team with a huge lack of depth and good players in general. No way do they make up 6 games on us during the next 17. Not happenning. LA Clippers have some real talent despite their being a mess, and they’re finally healthy, but making up 7 games in 17? I doubt it, but it’s possible if they go on a tear. If we lose tonight, it’ll help the cause. There’s no way we make up all those games on the Gilbert-less Wizards or the Sacramento Kings, who are each awful. The Raptors have Chris Bosh and play in the East so I would bet they finish with a better record, but it should be close. The Pacers have Danny Granger, who’s far better than anyone we have on our roster, btw, and also play in the weaker East. They’re 5 games ahead of us so I think we’re safe.

Bottom line – we’re probably not going to have a better lottery shot at the end of the year than we do now. Cross your fingers for that 12.9% chance of a top-3 pick!

1. Sacramento Kings (14-52)
2. Washington Wizards (16-51)
3. LA Clippers (16-50)
4. Memphis Grizzlies (17-49)
5. The team that cannot be named per Bill Simmons (19-48)
6. Minnesota Grizzlies (20-46)
7. Golden State “Cohan – please sell the team ASAP” Warriors (23-43)
8. Toronto Raptors (24-44)
9. Indiana Pacers (28-40)

If Monroe comes out he’d be a great player for us. He is the play making, passing big man Nellie would die for. It doesn’t look like he’s coming out, though.

But he’s not at all like Anthony Randolph or Brandan Wright.

H’s got a bigger frame, though he’s obviously not huge, but he’ll be better at playing a big man straight up. He’s a much, much better passer than anyone we have on our team except for Stephen Jackson and Marco Belinelli, including Monta. (I’m not counting Jamal Crawford b/c for these purposes he won’t be on the team.)

He has a really nice shot so while playing the 4 he can start the offense from the top of the key, the way Webber used to do, if we want him to, and the other team has to respect his shot. That’s the biggest difference between him and Randolph/Wright (and btw, I’m a huge Randolph fan and still open with Wright), you can actually play him opposite Biedrins and still have 4 shooters on the floor. Not the case with Randolph/Wright. He will stretch the defense while playing with a very high basketball IQ.

  Do they give these guys a basketball IQ test before they leave college? Are their scores listed anywhere?