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Another Possible Take on Making a Winner out of This Team

We hear a lot about the "logjam" at the 1-3 on the Warriors, but the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that this is the area of the team that needs the most work.  The Biedrins/Turiaf and Randolph/Wright situation for our bigs seems to be one that can be very respectable for the coming years.  Randolph and Wright still have some work to do (please stay out of foul trouble Randolph! Please!), but the makings are there now for a very good front court.  The main issue we seem to have is at our guards and swingmen, something that probably requires a bit of explanation.

Star-divide

Monta Ellis is the only guard we have with a realistic, good shot at an all-star game at some point in his career.  It's that simple.  I like Morrow, but he doesn't scream future all-star to me; he seems more like a very good complementary piece.  Buike is another solid role player.  Marco, too.  Jack and Maggette have seen their best days at this point.  They are not going to radically improve to be the 1st or 2nd option on a winning team.  CJ is a backup point guard, nothing more.  Jamal Crawford, despite his great game last night, is not a good basketball player. Myself and quite a few other people on these boards have explained why on enough separate occasions that going into detail here seems unnecessary (volume shooter, doesn't rebound/defend, etc.) That's a lot of players, with one very good player.  Calling it a "logjam" seems to imply that there are a lot of players who deserve a lot of minutes.  If anything, we need ANOTHER swingman/point guard (I'm fine with either, Monta can play the point or slide to the 2, I don't care which he does) who can really play if we are going to make a legitimate playoff push.

 

How do we start to solve this problem?  Step one, in my opinion, is to tell Crawford to opt out or expect the Starbury treatment for the next two years.  Tell him straight up "We have enough guards, if you want to play basketball, I'd opt out.  You won't be getting playing time here."  If it is made clear that he won't be playing, he might realize how hard it will be to get another team to take him on after two years of warming the bench in Oakland.  Harsh? Yes. This is nothing against Jamal as a person, just against Jamal as a player.  Outside of the occasional game where he catches fire, he is a sizable detriment to the team.  We don't need him.

 

Step Two:  The Draft.  Depending on position, we should not expect a world beater, but might fall into someone that would work very well for us or that some other team covets.  I'd look into trading down or out of the first round if nothing exciting is available or if there's a solid player there, go for it (not rocket science, I know).  If we move down, try to shed Jackson or Mags' contract in the process.  That probably will require moving one of the solid young guys too, but this is the price we will need to pay.  Marco, Mags and our pick for a later draft pick might seem little steep, but we need to make a play for an all-star caliber guard in the next couple years to make a serious contender out of this team.  If we luck into a top 2 pick, well, that changes a lot.  I've been thinking more and more that Rubio is our franchise's greatest hope if  we get one of those picks, but let's not pretend it's likely.

 

Step Three: Free Agency/Trades.  This one is on whoever becomes the next GM.  It's a bit early to start seriously considering who will be on the market in either free agency or via trades in the next couple years.  Most players listed as "Free Agents" aren't going anywhere.  I'd love to see us make a move for Joe Johnson in 2010, but who knows if he'll have an extension by then.  It's really going to be a matter of waiting for a possibility and pouncing agressively.  All our nice young talent could be possible trade fodder for a borderline all-star type player.  If our front court develops nicely, the Warriors would really only need the type of player who gets in the discussion of top tier players, not a surefire all-star guy. 

 

Monta, Biedrins and Randolph could be the core that can win a lot of games.  But they will need one more very good player if the team wants to be talked about as a title contender in the next 5 years or so.  Standing pat leaves us with a first round playoff series on the road for the foreseeable future.  There's a hole to be filled at our guard positions; we need to find that missing piece.

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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agreed
Standing pat leaves us with a first round playoff series on the road for the foreseeable future.

- at BEST

nice post, disagree on the priority (PF>Gd imo) and whether we have enough oomph inside, but agree on assessments of the perimeter players’ potentials … Nelson tried with Crawford, we’ll draft someone (seems like few teams trade down in the NBA, unlike NFL), and trades will be discussed of course … but we’re gonna have to give up something of value to get something of value – just do not see any realistic way we add an impact player while keeping Monta, AB & AR together. Agree on FA to a point, in fact unless we make a big contract change, we aren’t players in the FA market at all even if the opportunity to pounce aggressively suddenly appeared …

by hardcore on Apr 4, 2009 1:59 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

i’d hope that a trade would be possible if we worked in our 1st rounder this year. it seems like our draft position is unlikely to get better next year and could even end up outside of the lottery. no guarantees there, but this team is a possible playoff team next year, like an 8 seed, but that is still out of the lottery. if we want to keep the core and move a contract, i’d say that marco+mags+our 1st rounder is the ideal starting point for that. it adds nothing to the team for next year, but it can make the warriors a player in free agency down the road (if crawford can be strong armed into an opt out that is, if not, try to trade him instead; that contract at least isn’t absurdly long).

heart of a champion, will of the warrior.

by cap'n hack on Apr 4, 2009 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i agree with everything you said.

we should trade down the draft for collison/holiday

maggs + first rounder + marco/watson = collison/holiday

and i kinda disagree with you about morrow….hes been growing in leaps and bounds and (OBV not there) seems to be becoming a MINI (very mini) ray allen, with the potential to grow into one!

i totally agree that monta + randolph + andris can be our future core and should all be kept. i also think that buki/turiaf/morrow should also be kept. everyone else to me in expendable.

You know I spit technique to the freshest freak
Gimme a call you will see results in just a week
With the soul of a LOST HAWK
Is there a heaven for a Rap Cat, let's talk

by LostHawk on Apr 4, 2009 2:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

i like morrow a lot. he brings some very good things to the table, but if the right deal came along (read: one that allows us to get rid of a terrible contract) i’d pull the trigger. it’d be sad, but it could be necessary.

heart of a champion, will of the warrior.

by cap'n hack on Apr 4, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

ya i agree on this as well

only way id get rid of him is if it meant we got rid of maggs….or got some amazing deal for an all star type player

neither of which i expect to happen…thus making him ‘kinda untouchable’…or…‘want to keep’

You know I spit technique to the freshest freak
Gimme a call you will see results in just a week
With the soul of a LOST HAWK
Is there a heaven for a Rap Cat, let's talk

by LostHawk on Apr 4, 2009 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jamal Crawford, despite his great game last night, is not a good basketball player.

    You should go try and play against him before making that statement? If you have and still consider him no good then I’ll believe the rest of the message?

Now wheres the rubbers? Whose got the rubbers?
I noticed there's so many of them
and there's really not that many of us.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Apr 4, 2009 4:09 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I could probably score on him a few times before he breaks my ankles. Then Kobe will show up on his horse and lecture me on his new Hyperdunk.

by antihero on Apr 4, 2009 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

a-mo

Anthony morrow is leading the league in 3pt percentage and he is a ROOKIE!! let alone an undrafted rookie. That is a ridiculous stat. The only thing holding back A-mo from being a starter next year is his liability on defense, he has some other things to work on offensively but it is the fact that he struggles heavily defensively that keeps him from becoming a legit future starter on this team and in the NBA. That being said he does seem like the person that has the will to win and the will to get better at things he needs to. If he could work on his foot speed and lateral quickness this summer and become a better defender he could become a legitimate starter. His shot is to good to not have on the floor in my opinion. Next years starting 5
monta
morrow
jack
Randolph
Beans

by FeartheBeard4 on Apr 4, 2009 8:49 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

you can’t teach quick. he’s not going to be able to hit the quickness camp this offseason and suddenly kill guys off the dribble or stay in front of his man on every possession. i like morrow, but he’s a role player. what’s so terrible about having an instant offense guy off the bench? he can be that, but don’t expect him to be much more than that. i don’t want to put all my eggs in the “he could become a legitimate starter” basket.

the team you listed will be able to, at best, enjoy a game seven away from the oracle in the first round of the playoffs. that might even be asking too much considering the monta/morrow backcourt’s defensive prowess. we can improve our guard situation if we make a real move. let’s build a great team, not a good one.

heart of a champion, will of the warrior.

by cap'n hack on Apr 5, 2009 1:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i dunno

bellinellie got ripped for his defense his first year than all of a sudden this year it was better. quickness can be something that you can have or you cant have. Monta is obviously quick and if you watch him there are times where he shows good defense if he tries. Once he understands that defense is the key to winning he will be a better defender. most of defense is flat out effort, monta sometimes has it, sometimes, most of the times he doesnt, but he has the talent to become a good defender.

by FeartheBeard4 on Apr 5, 2009 1:49 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

if we ever want to have a shot at a championship we need a superstar

paired up with a monta and a cast of good player like we have

by Warriorfan on Apr 5, 2009 1:26 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Championship?

In case you havn’t noticed, no one wins championships unless they are ridiculously loaded with talent. Houston has had T-MAC and Yao together for like 8 years and hasn’t made it out of the first round. My point is that you need A LOT to even think about a Championship.

My other point is that with ME, AB and AR, you have a core of three guys who could legitimately be ALL-STAR caliber players, all under age 23. Why would you trade 2 of these guys just to get a “superstar” like Bosh or Amare (neither of which have ever won anything) who would probably just relegate you to first or second round exits year after year?

Monta is the singular of Montus, of the Montai

by Supafishal on Apr 6, 2009 10:19 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

who’s trading them? and neither bosh nor amare are superstars (though i think you are implying that with the quotation marks). my point was that we should try to keep those three guys if possible and add a fourth very good player at point guard/swingman to push the team over the top. i feel like this must be a response to something else.

heart of a champion, will of the warrior.

by cap'n hack on Apr 6, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

it was a response to the post immediately above

and more generally to the too-often-touted idea that one player can be a savior

Monta is the singular of Montus, of the Montai

by Supafishal on Apr 6, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

ah, gotcha.

heart of a champion, will of the warrior.

by cap'n hack on Apr 6, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Crawford won't opt out

He has too much money to lose. It’s unlikely that, as a free agent, he’d get a four-year deal for the same total money he’s got left on his current deal. He signed a deal that averaged $7.8 million, but with the raises I think he’s making $9 or $10m a year now, and as a free agent I don’t think he’d even get the full mid-level exemption (especially in this economic climate).

There’s simply no way he opts out.

by Ronaldinho on Apr 6, 2009 1:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

i don't think he will either

i was just offering up the only way that i could see it as a possibility. if he thinks that two years on the bench effectively ends any chance of him getting a halfway decent veteran contract, then maybe, but it’s still really unlikely.

and olympicmike already said it, but yeah, he’s got two years if he stays in the deal.

heart of a champion, will of the warrior.

by cap'n hack on Apr 6, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oops ...

I thought that Crawford had two more years on his deal, but he only has one – the player option year. But he’s making over $10m next year.

And I suspect he’ll get $3-4m on the open market, tops. Probably less, given that most teams are trying to reduce their salary in the current economic environment. Hard to imagine him giving up $6-7 million. I mean, even if somebody offered him a 3-year/$14m deal, financially he’d be doing better if he played out his contract then signed for 2yr/$4m.

It makes no sense for him to opt out. If he has modest tastes and has been conservative with his money (which almost no NBA players do!) then yeah, he might choose happiness over an extra $7m next year … but I would simply not bet on that happening.

by Ronaldinho on Apr 6, 2009 2:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Actually...

You were right the first time. He has an opt out this offseason but two years remaining after that (I think around $9 and $10 mil respectively).

Thing 2

by olympicmike on Apr 6, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If he has modest tastes and has been conservative with his money , then yeah, he might choose happiness over an extra $7m next year

  What could be sweeter than pressure free practices with an nba team, free season and travel tickets to all warrior games and the chance to relax on the bench for 2 seasons while drawing almost 20 mil in salary? Man break out the beach towels and suntan lotion cause Jamal is on vacation!!

Now wheres the rubbers? Whose got the rubbers?
I noticed there's so many of them
and there's really not that many of us.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Apr 6, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

isn't it kind of odd

to have a two-year option (either team or player)? I don’t think I have ever heard of that, only one year options. Someone more knowledgable please weigh-in.

Monta is the singular of Montus, of the Montai

by Supafishal on Apr 6, 2009 3:34 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

two-year options...

It is unusual but not unheard of. After taking a quick look I think that the only other guys with two year player options are Arenas, Kobe and E Curry (he actually a player option in each of the last two years of his deal). It is much more common to see player options on the last year of a deal.

As for team options, you don’t see many at all outside of the standard rookie contracts. I guess once a player is in a position to negotiate there isn’t much reason to allow one. You will see some guys have them who are fringe NBA players, which makes sense.

Thing 2

by olympicmike on Apr 6, 2009 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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