But I’m not talking about reason to be excited. I’m talking about reason to believe that we’re a 50-win playoff team in the next couple of years. We all love to haggle over precisely what it is we need to get there — A PF? A C? A PG? A Baron? A JRich? More Kurz? Less Craw? Better coach? Better focus on the road? — but I think we all know deep down that what we need above all is an elite player, regardless of position.

An elite player would be fantastic. But — and maybe this is total April glass-half-full wishcasting, but hear me out — I think we could be a pretty good team without one.

There were a million problems with this season, but the four biggest:

1) Injuries, especially Monta’s
2) Heavy minutes from Crawford
3) Frequent, misguided use of smallball
4) Complete defensive ineptitude

There are good reasons to think that all of these problems will be addressed.

1) Monta seems like he’s Monta again. That doesn’t mean he’s completely risk-free… we’ll probably all cringe every time he lands wrong on that ankle for the rest of his Warriors career. But the dude has been playing at a high level, and everybody else should be fine for next season. Maggette’s a good bet to miss some games again, of course, and we’ll have some nicks and scratches here and there - we can’t expect another season as aberrantly healthy as ’07’08. But we should have our best players available much more consistently next year than this one.

2) The team is well aware of the negatives of Crawford. I think their efforts to convince him to move on are clumsy and even counterproductive… I don’t think he’s going to opt out. But I don’t think we’ll ever see him play big minutes again as a Warrior.

3) Nellie finally seems off the smallball train, thanks to Randolph. It’s a shame that Wright’s good play didn’t open Nellie’s eyes months ago… regular lineups would’ve made this a much less painful season. But Randolph has opened Nellie’s eyes. We will be fielding lineups with a ginyoowine power forward more often than not next year, which is a very good thing.

4) Our defense will still kinda stink next year. But — and I say this as someone who’s been more critical of Nellie than most — I don’t think Nellie will let us sink quite as low next season. The Keith Smart thing is gimmicky, but it shows a real awareness on Nellie’s part that his defensive coaching job is unacceptable, and a whole summer to plan around a “defensive coordinator” arrangement could actually bear some fruit. It’s not like this team is filled with immobile guys or uncoachable hotheads… most guys on this roster have both the athleticism and inclination to compete defensively. They just need to be taught how to do that. Nellie wasn’t up to the job this year, but it does seem that things may be different in that area next fall.

We have more than enough balance and talent overall that one Top 10 NBA player, even at a position where we’re "set" (say, Wade or Kobe at SG, or LBJ at SF) makes us a contender almost instantaneously.

No question. If we added one of those guys, and gained not only their production but the ripple effects they tend to have on their teammates (especially Lebron), we’d be a 55-win team from jump street.

But there’s a real likelihood that a top-20 guy won’t show up soon… that we won’t be able to trade for Bosh, that Randolph will merely rise to “very good” rather than “otherworldly”. In that case — if we don’t hit the lottery, if we don’t make a big trade — are we screwed? I don’t see it. There may not be another team in the league that’s better-equipped to compete without a superstar than this one.

Our probable starting lineup for next year: Monta, Jack, Maggette, Randolph, Biedrins. (Maggette might not “start”, but he figures to get the most and most important minutes at the three.) No superstars here, but that’s as balanced a starting five as you’ll find anywhere, outside of possibly Atlanta. Monta is, if not a significantly above-average starting “point guard”, a significantly above-average starting guard you can put at the point. Jack is roughly an average starting shooting guard. Weird strengths, weird weaknesses… probably about average overall, maybe a tiny bit above. Maggette’s a slightly above-average starting small forward. Randolph is currently playing like an above-average power forward… calling him one might be jumping the gun, but he certainly figures to be at least average. Biedrins is a significantly above-average starting center. No superstars here, but how many NBA teams have a guy at Jack’s level as their worst starter? Five or six… not many. Loads of efficient scoring and rebounding in this quintet. The defense is below-average, barring a return to form from Monta, but it’s not terrible. Playmaking? Again, below-average — they’ll turn it over more than you like — but not downright horrible.

Looking at the bench, the news only gets better. Turiaf is an extremely good backup center, Wright a very good backup PF, ‘Buike an extremely good backup SF, Morrow an above-average backup SG. CJ? He’s not the type of backup PG we’d like to have, but you’d be hard-pressed to call him a below-average backup… he does a number of good things. Marco is flawed but somewhat useful, and he’s our eleventh-best player; that speaks to our depth. There aren’t five better benches in the league.

There’s 46 wins in this roster without question, maybe more if Monta or Randolph evolve further. Those 46 wins won’t come out without some solid, disciplined coaching, and that’s my biggest concern for next season, because we haven’t seen much of that on display this year. But Nellie is a good coach, a good enough coach to see past his own stubbornnesses eventually. Bigger, Crawford-free lineups and energetic defensive coaching from somebody would do wonders for this team, and all indications are that Nellie is fully aware of this.

My point was that unless AR becomes a Top 10 NBA-type the Ws are likely to keep falling short of that "perennial playoff team" we all fantasize about.

If Randolph becomes a top ten NBA player we’re headed for a string of 55-60 win seasons and will get more fun than we ever could’ve imagined out of rooting for this misbegotten franchise. There’s still plenty of fun to be had if Randolph doesn’t reach those heights. All we need is a good performance out of our legendary coach, and while Nellie’s made me pull my hair out many a time this year, I think we can get that.