These games matter - it's math, not chemistry ... and the question is how to position for the draft
by hardcore on Apr 8, 2009 5:04 PM PDT
36 comments
Unless our karma takes a 180-degree turn from our previous lottery luck, we have virtually no chance at the top three players in this draft:
1 Blake Griffin PF/C, Oklahoma, Sophomore
via www.draftexpress.com
2 Ricky Rubio PG. DKV Joventut, International
3 Jordan Hill PF, Arizona, Junior
As I understand the draft lottery, only the top three picks are lottery-based, after that the picks are determined by record and set in reverse order of final record. In other words, unless we beat the odds big time and move into the top 3, we likely lose out on the next three:
4 Hasheem Thabeet C, Connecticut, Junior
via www.draftexpress.com
5 James Harden SG, Arizona State, Sophomore
via www.draftexpress.com
6 Brandon Jennings PG, Lottomatica Roma, International
So, unless we make a surprise trade to move up, or trade our pick outright, here’s where the rubber meets the road for the Warriors. And why winning or losing these last few games could impact our options in picks 7 through 9. Frankly, I’m less sure than ever whether anyone really can accurately predict where these players get selected, particularly Jennings, but the next three players, according to Draft Express (which was pretty accurate in last couple years IIRC) could be:
7 Willie Warren SG, Oklahoma, Freshman
8 Tyreke Evans PG/SG, Memphis, Freshman
9 Demar DeRozan SG/SF, USC, Freshman
via www.draftexpress.com
If there is ANY chance that the dubs might make a big trade that included Monta, they’d possibly pick a SG. But these three are all freshmen – and we are already the youngest team in the league. Will age/experience factor into BPA equations? Both Juniors Earl Clark and Ty Lawson might be available to us – do we pass on both those players?
Earl Clark SF/PF, Louisville, Junior
Could Clark fight his way into the playing rotation? From what I saw (which was limited) he’s not a low block bruiser but sure seems agile and has the ball handling skills to play Nellie ball. Nonetheless it wouldn't seem that anyone other than Griffin and Jordan would have a realistic shot to crack the rotation. Unless GSW trades one or more forwards that is.
Would Ty Lawson be the perfect backup PG (& heir apparent)? He sure showed well in the NCAAs and has a longer track record than the three frosh SG (above).
Ty Lawson PG, North Carolina, Junior
Lawson is not the perfect PG either to play alongside Monta, and he has holes in his game. But he showed intangibles and seems like he'd be a solid pick even as high as #7 (my suspicion is his stock rose as the tournament progressed). The intangibles that could factor in are his competitiveness, success at a high level over several seasons, his defense, quickness.
My hunch is Lawson will be off the board by #9 - if so, that would make winning/losing the last few games this season consequential, to say the least. Many contributors here claim our #1 priority should be a PG - is Lawson your pick? Can you stomach losing an extra game or two to address your #1 priority.
We can develop chemistry in training camp, let's do the math to get us in position to at least draft the best elements to mix.
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
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id rather trade to get
collison or holiday
both are excellent defenders and very athletic (higher potential imo)
You know I spit technique to the freshest freak
Gimme a call you will see results in just a week
With the soul of a LOST HAWK
Is there a heaven for a Rap Cat, let's talk
by LostHawk on Apr 8, 2009 5:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
how so?
collison has been VERy solid all his years in college….hes had one of the highest FG% in the NCAA, hes been consistently the fastest guy on the court…and has learned great defense at UCLA. hes very good at using dribble penetration…
holiday has been pretty up and down all season….hes been forced to play out of position (hes naturally a PG, has to play SG cuz of collison) hes the perfect size to go along with monta, and is a pretty solid lock down defender and gets his hands in the passing lanes well….he has a lot of room to grow…and i think would be excellent for the dubs
lawson would also be pretty solid for the warriors, but i really dont see much potential for him to go TOO much higher…hes got a solid AST/TO ratio, one of the best in the NCAA….but his shooting % is not very good…ie not a great finisher….from what ive seen from him he takes advantage of dribble penetration a lot
id be happy to get any of these 3 if we cant get rubio
You know I spit technique to the freshest freak
Gimme a call you will see results in just a week
With the soul of a LOST HAWK
Is there a heaven for a Rap Cat, let's talk
by LostHawk on Apr 8, 2009 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
but his shooting % is not very good
53.2% FG
47.2% 3FG
What exactly qualifies for you as good?
Thing 1
by Sleepy Freud on Apr 8, 2009 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
lawsons numbers?
weird i saw something else when i looked em up….
You know I spit technique to the freshest freak
Gimme a call you will see results in just a week
With the soul of a LOST HAWK
Is there a heaven for a Rap Cat, let's talk
by LostHawk on Apr 9, 2009 12:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Would Collison or Holiday even crack our rotation? Collison in particular is tiny- 5’11 guys don’t do a lot of “locking down” in this league.
by antihero on Apr 8, 2009 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
tiny- 5’11 guys don’t do a lot of "locking down" in this league.
but they can run between the legs and nip at the nuts of the big dogs.
Now wheres the rubbers? Whose got the rubbers?
I noticed there's so many of them
and there's really not that many of us.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Apr 8, 2009 7:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
collison doesnt really have a high ceiling either
i wouldnt mind trading down for him but not piking him 7-9
by nateoak10 on Apr 8, 2009 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
why not Evans?
seems to me like he’s got at least as much potential as Holiday and much more than Collison
Thing A
by sam23 on Apr 9, 2009 1:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i’d say that drafting a sg who can handle the offense would be a sign that the warriors wanted to KEEP ellis, not trade him. that said, the 3 shooting guards that are projected to be in that range do nothing for me. maybe i just don’t know much about warren, but i would not be excited about any of those guys. if we could include the first rounder in any deal that got crawford off our hands (if he doesn’t opt out, and it seems very unlikely that he will) and brought in anything of value at all, that would be my ideal situation. in a weak draft, losing a bad contract might be the best thing to do with our pick. unless we hit the lotto or somehow end up with harden still on the board.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
by cap'n hack on Apr 8, 2009 5:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
the 3 shooting guards that are projected to be in that range do nothing for me
ya, that sums it up for me too as I was trying to figure out where to turn in the 7-9 range … BPA is a fine theory and all, but it’s not going to be clear (at least from here) who that is … your comment re “KEEP ellis” intriques me – why would we draft a SG who can handle the O – wouldn’t we want a PG to?
Just seems that we’re in a Charlie Brown episode: in a year when we have more SG on the roster than we can play and a terribly young team we’re probably in a position to draft another very young one … I’d be tempted to go with Clark or Lawson at that point … like you, still holding out hope for a trade to free us up a bit and add a solid veteran who can contribute right away – doesn’t have to be a Bosh-level player (though that’s obviously my pref)
by hardcore on Apr 8, 2009 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: keep ellis
i think that monta has been handling the transition to pg pretty well and that trying to work in a “true” point likely either leaves us really undersized in the backcourt or with a big pg who isn’t very good. if we are willing to keep monta as the point guard, we could just give him a sg as a backcourt mate if he could help distribute. i think finding a shooting guard who is willing to pass and can play some defense seems more likely than finding a 6’5" “true point guard” who can defend shooting guards. i like monta enough to say that finding him a reasonable partner in the backcourt is the best option and that finding a shooting guard to do that is the most likely route for that. as much as we like to doubt what nellie says until it’s put into action, he said it best “monta will only be a truly great player if he plays point guard”. i’d like to give him the roster to help him succeed.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
by cap'n hack on Apr 8, 2009 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
... a shooting guard who is willing to pass and can play some defense
gotcha, and agree – hopefully we have that in Jax – unless you’re advocating trading him … Nelson predicted they’d start together next season which I think is what you’re saying too.
by hardcore on Apr 9, 2009 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
for now, yes
that’s our best option for the foreseeable future. two years from now, i’d really like to have a jackson replacement lined up, because he’s not likely to be the same player that he is now and he isn’t exactly a great player now. which of course brings us back to the question: why did we extend him? why!?
that contract means that if we could find a willing trade partner to send us back some cap space, i’d do it. i just don’t expect to be able to find a possible trade.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
by cap'n hack on Apr 9, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm really high on Demar DeRozan
He has the physical body to play alongside Monta, but he hasn’t stepped up this season with USC.
Waiting to adopt someone...
by monta101 on Apr 8, 2009 6:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
DeRozan stepped it up at the end of the season. He was a huge part of their winning the Pac-10. I believe he made his first 3 during the tournament, and that was really shocking to me because he’s got a nice looking stroke. As underwhelming as USC has been all season, they really hit their stride at the end (beat BC and gave MSU a game), and DeRozan deserves a lot of credit for that.
I’m still reluctant to play a guard next to Monta who can’t shoot the 3- that would leave us with only one floor stretcher providing we play conventional lineups.
by antihero on Apr 8, 2009 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m still reluctant to play a guard next to Monta who can’t shoot the 3- that would leave us with only one floor stretcher providing we play conventional lineups.
+1, I think that may be even more important than getting a guard with size to play next to him.
Thing A
by sam23 on Apr 9, 2009 1:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
DraftExpress has his best case as Gerald Green….what the?
Thing A
by sam23 on Apr 9, 2009 1:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha
I saw that too.
Best case: Gerald Green
Worst case: Rodney Carney
That’s probably the second dumbest thing I read on the internets yesterday, after
[Marco is] much more consistent than Morrow and he is about 3-4 years younger than Morrow.
Thing 1
by Sleepy Freud on Apr 9, 2009 4:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe it’s just me, but i’d prefer carney to green (after zero seconds of research and two seconds of thinking about when i’d seen them play). he’s been playing really well for the wolves this year. either way, that’s just a weird comparison. clearly draftexpress does not love derozan.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
by cap'n hack on Apr 9, 2009 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trade monta. dude you lost all credibility! Trade a star player
for some unknown tweener out of college? Ok pass the pipe over here!
by dungeness crabdribble on Apr 8, 2009 7:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
By the way... watch some film
Willie Warren is the second coming of dwayne wade, with a better outside shot. He is gonna be a stud!
by dungeness crabdribble on Apr 8, 2009 7:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
really?
I find the Willie Warren hype tough to buy into because I tried to watch Griffin as much as possible and Warren rarely jumped out at me. But his scouting reports do sound pretty amazing….
Thing A
by sam23 on Apr 9, 2009 1:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
from what I've seen
he does have good poise and body control for his age/experience.
LeBron James? I'm the only Ty Crane.
by misterjennings on Apr 9, 2009 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
TY Lawson will be a nice back up for 10 years in the league
He is expected to be drafted around 20th. So we take him at 7 or 8? I think not.
by dungeness crabdribble on Apr 8, 2009 7:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
reading comprehension?
In an earlier “Truth Hurts” post I advocated trading Monta – for a Bosh type PF, not some unknown tweener out of college, which was never suggested here or elsewhere.
No one, not a single source I’ve seen, has used the name DWade in comparison to Willie Warren – perhaps you are losing credibility?
Lawson has been slated between 7 – 14th pick on various sites I’ve seen.
Perhaps if you had caught me 10, no, 20 years ago I’d’ve been pleased to pass you a pipe. Alas, I’ve passed that time, though it appears you haven’t yet? Enjoy! ;-)
by hardcore on Apr 8, 2009 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Outside of a top 3 pick on my board
- Cole Aldrich if he’s coming out, he’s got a solid post game, is a good defender and a quality rebounder. avg 14.9 pts 11.1 Rebounds and 2.7 Blocks. Those are all solid numbers unfortunately he may not come out this year.
- DeMar DeRozan who has all the physical tools to be a great player in the NBA but it seems like he’s very lacking in the polished skills area as he has no ability to go left and often settles for outside shots. He does seem to be an above average rebounder and would be able to play the 2 or 3. Also he seems like a pretty good defender which would help on this Warriors team. Not to mention he’s got the size to play along side Monta.
- on my board would be Tyreke Evans just because he has size and I could see him playing kind of a passing 2 guard alongside Monta shoots pretty well from the field but the fact that he played against inferior talent while in the NCAA has to be taken into account.
It's all about the killer cross-over baby!
by warriorsfiend on Apr 9, 2009 9:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
He also looks extremely lazy and unmotivated
as shown by is almost non-existent NCAA tournament games 1-8 shooting and 2-9 shooting or something like that. He also looks to be a pretty horrible defender. Along with the fact that he is a volume shooter is all I need to know, I’d skip on this guy.
Also comparing him to Baron Davis is a disservice to Baron and the speed and quickness he shows in getting to the bucket, Harden is SLOW the only reason he dominates the NCAA is because he can clear space with his giant ass.
It's all about the killer cross-over baby!
by warriorsfiend on Apr 9, 2009 1:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Jrue Holiday
If we can get him at our draft position, we should.
If he stays in college he’s going to be a Top 5 pick in next year’s draft. I think a year in Don Nelson’s doghouse would be just as beneficial for him as staying another year at UCLA, unless he completely forgets how to play defense while in Oakland.
"We Deserve"
by YaHeard on Apr 9, 2009 4:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Jrue Holiday is not someone I want on my team
He’s shouldn’t even be drafted at the point he’s got very few skills that I could see in the 10 plus games I watched him play this year not to mention his line in 27 minutes a game
8.5 Points 3.8 Rebounds 3.7 Assists 2.1 Turn Overs on 45% from the floor.
I’m not really sold on an under sized 2 guard that couldn’t play well against NCAA tournament teams. This guy is not a top 7 pick by any stretch of the imagination. You must listen before YAHEARD.
It's all about the killer cross-over baby!
by warriorsfiend on Apr 9, 2009 4:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
three words
not bloody likely
either we’re obscenely lucky and get a top 3 pick, and take Griff, Rubio, or Thabeet (?) or we pick 7-8-9 and miss out on a chance to pick Harden – unless you’d take him 1-2-3rd if lightening strikes us favorably
by hardcore on Apr 10, 2009 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone know when...
…the Draft Lottery is being held this year?
by Hoopachoo on Apr 13, 2009 7:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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