Myth-busters, Basketball edition Pt I
Because someone requested it, here's the first installment of what will be an ongoing look at the 'common knowledge' surrounding the great game of basketball, the (wouldn't we all be happier if they were great) Golden State Warriors, and some truth behind this conventional wisdom.
Part I focuses on defense. Why? Because someone has to focus on defense, and it certainly didn't look like anyone on the court or coaching staff was, so we'll just have to step up the plate ourselves.
Debunk the debunking as you see fit!
Myth: Half the game is defense.
Truth: This is true. If we look at an opposing team's offensive and defensive fg%, both have an equal effect on their opponent's performance in any given game, as would be expected if a team's offensive and defensive abilities (or lack thereof) had equal impact on the game. Yet while this is true – half the game IS defense at least in terms of a team's ability to influence outcome of the game – , when it comes to evaluating players fans, writers, coaches and GMs alike seem to favor scorers and largely ignore defense. A player's points per game is the single biggest factor in his future contract size, selection to all-star games and awards and in many cases, playing time received. Great scorers who can't defend jr. high opponents will get big contracts while the best defenders in the game, if they can't score, are lucky to wind up with even an average salary. The notable exception are for some big men who are also prodigious rebounders and shot blockers, but this is the exception. Offense is rewarded. Defense is ignored.
Myth: Player X is a below average/terrible defender.
Truth: Any particular player may be a below average player. However, to believe the assessment of fans in forums such as this, the majority of players in the league are below average defenders, an observation that defies rational explanation, other than that the lack of reliable and ready-present defensive metrics makes this an easy charge for upset fans to level at players without empirical support and a difficult one to easily refute. That said, Jamal Crawford is a terrible defender. It's nothing personal. He appears to be a good person and good teammate, but his defense killed us.
Myth: Player X is a good player but a terrible defender.
Truth: It is difficult to be a good player in the meaningful sense of making your team more likely to win through your play, unless you can play at least some defense. It does not seem it as difficult to be acknowledged as a good player if you are also a terrible defender if you score a lot of points. That these players seem to be on the less successful teams is a point that seems lost on the fans, writers, coaches and GMs who refer to such players as good though. Scoring, it seems, is what gets you noticed, even if defense is half the game.
Myth: great scorers are great players.
Truth: Scoring total and points per game is a poor measure of a player's value. 20+ point per game scorers tend to be rather substantially rewarded regardless of how they got their points. But the number of minutes played, shots taken and possessions employed to get 20 points in a game is far more important than the total. An inefficient 20 will result in losses, as this inefficiency detracts from the offense of teammates, while scoring efficiently is the single greatest correlate with winning basketball. While the greatest players tend to be great scorers, the tend to be the more efficient scorers. They also tend to be better passers, rebounders and often, defenders. Jamal Crawford may score close to 20 points per game, but it is not entirely an accident that he has never sniffed the playoffs.
Myth: all we need is a big guy who can rebound and play some defense.
Truth: We need big guys who can rebound and play some defense. These skills are probably more important in a big than his scoring totals (especially if that scoring doesn't come on efficient shooting). They're also skills that are very tough to come by. There aren't superior rebounding bigs a-plenty out there for the pickin'. Whether or not this is all we need is up for debate, but a team can go far with a defensive minded, powerful rebounder in the paint (see: Mutombo, Dikembe and Wallace, Ben [please note the rings on Mr. Wallace's fingers]), much further than with a big who can score but rebounds like he had his thumbs amputated (see: Curry, Eddy).
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28 comments
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Comments
I don't care what you say!
Jamal Crawford is the greatest player on the Warriors because he has scored 50 and he is a nice guy and he almost scores 20 a game and and and and he…
LeBron James? I'm the only Ty Crane.
by misterjennings on May 29, 2009 9:01 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
How about
Myth: blocked shots, deflected passes, and steals don’t really count as defense. The only real defense is moving your feet to slide underneath an already airborne player and draw a charging call.
Truth: Blocked shots, deflected passes and steals disrupt the other teams offensive rythym, burn the shot clock, and often lead to easy points the other way. Oh yea, and the officiating in the NBA is the worst in pro-sports.
Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!
by Supafishal on May 29, 2009 9:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good points. It’s true that steals and blocks aren’t a precise measure of defense. It is possible to try to get steals and blocks in such a way as to be an overall detriment (even when the steals and blocks, when they occur are a good thing). But I think this gets taken too far such that many people conclude that blocks and steals tell us nothing about a player. It’s the rare player who gets a fair number of steals or blocks without being at least a reasonable defender.
(NBA officiating has nothing on the international soccer leagues.)
by jae on May 29, 2009 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
(NBA officiating has nothing on the international soccer leagues.)
i personally dont like chelsea or barcelona, but the semi final was possibly the worst officiated game ive seen in all pro sports ever
by tafkasam on May 29, 2009 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
(NBA officiating has nothing on the international soccer leagues.)
True, but there is only one official on the field (with two line judges and a “helper” in the box) for soccer, while there are three NBA refs on a court that is 16 times smaller than a soccer field ( I did run the numbers on that) officiating twice as many players. Also, pain and anguish over missed calls, threatening the lives of a referee’s family , and equating struggles for national emancipation with the results of a single penalty kick are really what soccer is all about, right?
Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!
by Supafishal on May 29, 2009 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There was an interesting study of penalties in soccer. Apparently, in stadiums with a track around the field, there is no bias towards any team in terms of the penalties awarded, but on fields (‘the pitch’) without the additional border of a track, there is a bias towards the home team. The hypothesis was that when the fans are closer to the field, the ref is intimidated and makes calls accordingly, even if it’s a subconscious process.
by jae on May 29, 2009 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
As long as we’re using the negative example of Jamal Crawford when it comes to scoring, can we note how ridiculously efficient a scorer pre-moped Monta was? 53.1% from the field in ‘07-’08, for a guard, while averaging over 20 ppg! Sure he only shot 23.1% from beyond the arc, but he only took 52 of them on the year – I’m guessing most were end of quarter or shot clock winding down situations.
The general point is some people are down on Monta because of this year. He’s very good (at least offensively). If we get a guy that can really be the focal point of our offense, Monta will make a great compliment to said player, especially since Monta is so effective without needing to dominate the ball. That said…we shouldn’t mold our draft/build our team around Monta as the star, only looking for pieces that will fit with him – he isn’t that good.
by Missing Barry on May 29, 2009 9:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think I can speak for everyone here at GSOM....
JAE mis spoke, Crawfrod is legit and an under rated defender. We don’t want to trade him.**
- it’s not our real feelings about him and we are only holding this statement true temporarily to sustain trade leverage.
by Balance on May 29, 2009 10:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Myth: all we need is a big guy who can rebound and play some defense.
Truth: That’s Adonal Foyle.
Truth: If all you need is Adonal Foyle I sincerely hope you are assembling something other than an NBA basketball team or anything designed to arouse women.
Truth: The Warriors have Randolph, Turiaf and Biedrins. All of whom can rebound and play some defense.
Truth: What the Warriors really need is for their perimeter players to all make an effort on defense. It’s the perimeter defense that is killing them.
Truth: There are not a lot of NBA players willing to give effort on defense because players get paid for scoring (see Myth: great scorers are great players). Perimeter defense is, in most cases, probably twice as exhausting as offense. So why what’s the incentive to wear yourself out on D?
Great post BTW. I think, as a community, GSoM has finally been conditioned into understanding that point totals are a poor way to measure a player’s ability to help his team win. Hopefully your post will be the nail in point-per-game’s coffin.
Reduce your carbon footprint, commit suicide.
by bloodsweatndonuts on May 29, 2009 11:47 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Just an addendum. Someone has to score points. This isn’t soccer where we see (and more peculiarly, people are not overly annoyed by) 0-0 ties. Points get scored and it’s still generally more exciting to see a great scorer than to watch Bruce Bowen.
It’s just that scoring is only half the battle. (Losing, it seems, it also half the battle, or in the case of last year’s warriors 53/82nds of the battle.) Commentators who say that “defense wins championships” aren’t giving a wholly accurate picture either. Championship teams tend to excel at both ends of the court.
by jae on May 29, 2009 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
what an epiphany....
championship teams are good at both offense and defense. When are you going to be on espn jae?
by tafkasam on May 29, 2009 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know, not really all that insightful, but you wouldn’t know it from listening to Rick Barry, who sounds very much like it’s all defense.
by jae on May 29, 2009 11:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow so Crawfords to blame for all our problems .Well Im not surprised by this coming from someone who graded him a D even though didnt start the year with team and ended up second on the team in assists . Hes not a defender but we knew that when we traded for him but we also brought him in to play pg and then proceeded to jerk him around every game .
I want him gone but Im not gonna throw the weight of the entire franchise on his back while overlooking the obvious concerns that we would still have even if we waived Crawford right this minute .
by Hoopforia on May 29, 2009 2:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think most people agree with your point of view that he isn’t to blame for everything. He’s just easy to pick on and use as the example of what’s wrong with our team…
by Missing Barry on May 29, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i dont dislike crawford
i dislike management for bringing him. Worthless move.
by tafkasam on May 29, 2009 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post...
I almost missed it tucked between the graphically “louder” posts that usually appear on the front-page. Could I suggest including something like this next time…

Thing 2
by olympicmike on May 29, 2009 4:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I tried it initially, but was having issues with the interface and it never came out quite right. Next time.
by jae on May 29, 2009 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the mythbusters should really consider doing an episode about basketball myths.
We be doin' it CROOKLYN style!!!!!
by LighTz707OuT on May 29, 2009 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, they’re local. If this gets to them, I’ve got plenty of time on my hands to lend a hand.
by jae on May 29, 2009 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm looking forward to the SLUMPBUSTERS graphic . . .
Reduce your carbon footprint, commit suicide.
by bloodsweatndonuts on May 30, 2009 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What role does coaching play?
We all know or think we know what the Don thinks about defense and its role in winning. How can we expect the Dubs, under Nelson, to really give a rats ass about individual and team defense? On the other hand, Phil Jackson isn’t known as a defensive oriented coach and I don’t think George Karl is either. The Lakers, this year and last, are very close to winning a NBA Championship without any clear defensive leadership other than perhaps Kobe, who defends very well.
Deferrng to your deeper understanding of the NBA game, wouldn’t the head coaches in the NBA be more or less forced to emphasize defense for all the reason you have clearly and expertly outlined? Why wouldn’t someone like Nelson, who has been around forever, not know the value of defense in the NBA?
We Believe We Were Deceived
by commish on May 29, 2009 7:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
i dont think don doesn’t believe you need defense to win. I think he lacks the patience to coach it, and the will to pull out someone offensively skilled because they r missing defensive assignments….. Something that seperates nelson from popp. That and a superstar who believes in defense wins…
by tafkasam on May 29, 2009 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
you should throw in some false answers!
needlessly, thanks for the thread.
by Shells on May 29, 2009 8:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
yes, but what does Ridder and Rowell think
Um, R.R. and R.R. Is this just a coincidence or am on to something.
Thanks for the good post jae :-)
We Believe We Were Deceived
by commish on May 29, 2009 8:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There's probably some huge logical errors in here
But by my thinking, defense is not actually half the game. Or perhaps better said, a player’s contribution on defense is not quite as important as his contribution on offense. That is, a defender can only do so much to prevent the other team from scoring. There are going to be a good number of pullup Js, difficult shots and etc. that, if the opposing player is a talented scorer, can’t really be stopped.
Also, when playing a zone defense, the efficacy of the defense is determined in large part by the ability of the offense to make jump shots. Such a defense can reduce the impact of a good defender’s defensive ability. However, since most teams don’t play a zone, it doesn’t really factor in most of the time.
I’d love to discuss this ad nauseam with guys who have thought about these things. I think there’s a lot of unconventional thinking needed to unravel this game.
by markdash on May 30, 2009 9:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I am stating that defense is half the game based on what the numbers indicate. Overall, defense does appear to be half the game when you look at how a team’s overall offensive and defensive efficiency predict the outcomes of any particular game. The variance in a team’s offensive efficiency in any game is as much a factor of its own offensive efficiency for the season as it is the opponents defensive efficiency for the season, which is best explained by them being equally important. If it were not the case they should not vary in such a manner.
In the extreme (irrationally extreme, but I’m using it for illustration) setting where the game was all offense, the defensive efficiency of the opponent should not matter. A team’s offensive output (efficiency, not points scored) should have no correlation at all to their opponent’s defensive efficiency (which would only be indicative of who they had played in the past). On the flip side, if the game were entirely influenced by defense, the outcome should be determined entirely by which team had the better defensive efficiency (and offensive efficiencies for teams would merely indicate who they had played). The reality is that on average, the offensive and defensive efficiencies of opponents contributes equally to how a team performs in any given game.
For individuals this doesn’t need to hold true. It can be that a single player can do more to raise a team’s overall offensive efficiency. I am not saying if this is true or not. Right now, that remains speculation. But this does not change the fact that as a team, how a team plays defense has as much impact on the outcome of the game as how well a team performs on offense.
by jae on May 30, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That’s fascinating stuff. How good is the correlation?
by markdash on May 30, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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