Magic offseason dilemas and effect on the Warriors
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jun 15, 2009 10:33 AM PDT
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Well,
Now that the Finals are freshly 12 hours old, it's already time to start talking free agency for the losing team:
1. Hedo Turkoglu & Marcin Gortat are going to test free agency and get significant raises
2. Orlando has too much tied up in Rashard Lewis ($18M in '09-'10) and others to make a significant efforts to keep the two without dumping salary.
So, Turkoglu & Gortat can be had in free agency, and others like Alston, Nelson (unlikely to be available), Pietrus, Battie, JJ Redick can be had in trade if Orlando is trying to re-sign Turkoglu and/or Gortat.
Who would be a good fit for the Warriors? How can we make something work? Does anybody else still think having Rashard Lewis signed for 4 more years at >$18M/year is even remotely a good thing? If he was at $12-$13M/year they'd be able to keep Turkoglu. Instead, they're going to be relying on... Pietrus as their starting SF and Nelson to run the pick & roll? That's pretty steep, and when you add in the fact that they'll go from the Polish Hammer to... Tony Battie and Adonal Foyle (assming they even re-sign him) as their backup centers, they'll become worse and much thinner. They're not challenging Cleveland without keeing Turkoglu (and neither is Boston without getting KG healthy.
So, how and where can the Warriors step in? Who do we want? I'd say Alston is the easiest target, but he was notorious for being emotional, which will not play well with Nelson.
What Orlando wants:
1. Re-sign Turkoglu
2. Re-sign Gortat
3. Cap space to do 1 and/or 2
4. Replace the talent of Turkoglu and Gortat with cheaper players
What the Warriors want:
1. Acquire Turkoglu
2. Improve on current roster or cap situation
Options (in order of how happy the Warriors would be):
1. Sign Turkoglu
Highly unlikely, not even going to discuss it. The Pistons (and others) have more money to give and are better destinations.
2. Maggette for Turkoglu (S&T)
No way Magic do this unless Turkoglu just about has paperwork in place with another team and they're looking to get something (anything) for it. I wouldn't put it past Otis "Rashard Lewis gets $120M" Smith, but it's a long, long, long shot.
3. Ellis for Turkoglu (S&T)
The Magic would have to clear some cap space to make this happen, and it would only be feasible if Turkoglu really wanted to leave because I'm sure Orlando would be happier to have Turkoglu. So we'd have to offer more money AND Orlando would have to clear cap space... difficult, very difficult.
Maggette & Turiaf for Alston & Gortat (S&T)
Orlando would really only be interested in this if they lost Turkoglu and couldn't find any good FAs to sign at SF. Not really likely, and I'm not even sure the S&T is legal or feasible. We could do two separate trades, though Turiaf's salary is going down while Alston's is going up... might have to throw in some filler.
3. Maggette & Davidson for Alston & Battie
Would allow them to cut $2M, which they could then use on either Turkoglu or Gortat, Maggette would give them some offensive firepower to repace Turkoglu if they were to keep Gortat (certainly the cheaper of the two).
4. Package built around Ellis, Randolph, and Wright for Rashard Lewis
This would be the "big spalsh" Riley would be looking to make for "the best Nellieball mismatch at PF in the NBA," but I'd probably give up on the team.
As noted many, many times, a S&T is very rare and very difficult to pull off. So none of those are really feasible. I could see us making the Maggette & Davidson for Alston & Battie move, but that's a minor move. It would give us something at PG and cut long term cap. This could also be done with JC by himself, but unless Orlando feels like they're over a barrel, they're not going to do anything that ridiculous. Or maybe they will, their GM is still Otis Smith.
Anybody else have any good ideas for how we can work the Orlando situation?
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
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Maybe something like Monta for Nelson and Battie?
Maybe get them to throw in their first rounder?
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jun 15, 2009 10:35 AM PDT reply actions
They don’t have one.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Jun 15, 2009 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Hedo Turkoglu & Marcin Gortat are going to test free agency and get significant raises
Gortat will get no more than the MLE. Why? Because the CBA rules and the Arenas provision prevent anyone from offering him more than this.
Turkoglu is 30. Players start to decline as they get older and it’s usually not a gradual slope. A team giving him a significant raise for a number of years will be making a significant mistake as he is likely to see his play decline sharply at some point in his next contract. I suspect that he’ll get a raise and return to the Magic and fans there will be happy. In 3 years when his play is declining, fans there will gripe about how they could have signed him for fewer years and/or less money. I don’t see another team with cap space offering him up something over the MLE. Who has room to take him on? What team has room that doesn’t want to preserve it for next year?
Now I remember why I hate trade proposals and why I don't post them
:-P.
Is Turkoglu better or worse than Corey Maggette? Cuz some yahoos gave Corey $50M last year, despite his obvious injury history.
It’ll happen, Turkoglu is going to sign somewhere for more than he’s worth. As for Gortat, I would have figured they’d fix the MLE rules the other way, but what do I know. I’d put him down for going to Europe for if NBA teams are only allowed to offer him $5M. He may not be as good as Biedrins, but somebody will give him $7M/year… and if NBA teams can’t, a European team will, and the NBA will be forced to revisit that issue.
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by Dubs fan in Boston on Jun 15, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions
This is the first time in a while that I actually like all of our bigs. Andris, Randolph, Turiaf and Wright are all guys I enjoy watching for different reasons. I would still trade any of them under the right circumstances though,
Me too, but they would have to be pretty extreme circumstances for me to like sending Biedrins or Randolph away.
Thing A
Maggette & Davidson for Alston & Battie
Davidson isn’t under contract and has virtually no value from a talent perspective. He’s another S&T case, but one that doesn’t really help much. A raise to him makes him a BYC player, which defeats the purpose in including him in a trade.
Maggette & Turiaf for Alston & Gortat (S&T)
The numbers won’t work. Gortat isn’t going to sign on the cheap. When he signs a new deal for a real raise, becomes BYC. With any deal that makes sense for Gortat, matching salaries will require some fuzzy math.
For some reason the ESPN trade machine says Davidson is on the hook for another year, and the trade wouldn’t work without his $400K.
That’s the only one that really had some legs that I could come up with. And that only really works for Orlando if they’re losing Turkoglu…
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jun 15, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions
No, really?
I knew it was flawed, but figured I still had at least a 90% chance that it was right this time, and couldn’t really find anything else on Davidson. Me needs a better salary cap reference…
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by Dubs fan in Boston on Jun 15, 2009 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
You think they'd take JC for Alston & Battie?
After the trade deadline, given that they’re GM is still Otis Smith, if they want to re-sign both Turkoglu and Gortat, trading Alston & Battie for JC would give them $2M more cap space ($4M in savings if they’re over the cap). I still see another team making a better offer, but then again, I always see another team making a better offer.
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by Dubs fan in Boston on Jun 15, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
It would be a slight downgrade to exchange Maggette (and his 4 year contract) for Alston (and his expiring contract)
I like Ronny better too.
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by Dubs fan in Boston on Jun 15, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Different...
And Gortat will be more expensive than Turiaf.
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by Dubs fan in Boston on Jun 15, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I was factoring in contracts
Maggette – $9M
Turiaf – $4M
Alston – $6.1M
Gortat at $6-7M is less valuable than Turiaf at $4M.
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by Dubs fan in Boston on Jun 15, 2009 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Gortat at $6-7 million and Turiaf at $4 seem similar values to me. If Gortat’s few extra million prevent you from getting another player, this equation might be different, but if this is not the case, there’s not bonus factor you’re allowed to apply to the final score in order to make Turiaf’s cheaper salary into better production.
If Gortat’s few extra million prevent you from getting another player, this equation might be different, but if this is not the case, there’s not bonus factor you’re allowed to apply to the final score in order to make Turiaf’s cheaper salary into better production.
More bang for your buck allows you to:
1. Add more talent/give other people more money
2. More attractive trade chip
I don’t really see how you make an argument saying that it’s OK to overpay somebody just because they’re better than another player. Taking it to the extreme:
I’d rather have Andris at $9M/season than Rashard Lewis at $18M/season, but if having Rashard Lewis doesn’t prevent me from signing other players on my team, I’d rather have him.
Not even Mark Cuban can keep overpaying for players and dipping into the lux tax, and be happy about it. I’d rather have a sustainable talent base than one that’s overpaid.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jun 15, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions
I am NOT making the argument that it is ok to overpay someone. Those are your words and entirely your words and in no way reflect what I wrote or argued. Please do not introduce that rather obvious strawman.
More bang for the buck may allow you to add more talent elsewhere. The equation is certainly not as simple as you seem to be making it. At some point, it’s the contributions on the court that matter. You don’t get style points or degree of difficulty rankings that mean the lower dollar player gives you more. Saving $2 mil a year on its own is unlikely to bring you a player who can make up that much (if any) production differential as $2mil is usually a near end of the bench player and the quality of those guys tend to have next to no bearing on overall team quality.
In terms of being a more attractive trading chip, isn’t that where this got started? Swapping Turiaf as an attractive trading chip as part of deal that gets back the more productive Gortat. An attractive trading chip that you don’t trade is only as valuable as his actual production.
Gortat at $6-7M is less valuable than Turiaf at $4M
This is what you were replying to. If you want to just BS about how “production is production is production” while ignoring the obvious fact that teams continually dump players so they don’t have to pay luxury tax, and that because overpaying for talent results in paying luxury tax it can be inferred that teams don’t really like overpaying for talent, enjoy yourself.
Saving $2 mil a year on its own is unlikely to bring you a player who can make up that much (if any) production differential.
Where did I say anything about “saving $2M-$3M by dropping from Gortat to Turiaf will allow Orlando to bring in a $2M player to replace production”? I didn’t, you either made that up or are incorrectly interpreting what I said.
Disclaimer: I am not saying that this is true, just that it is a feasible, plausible, and, I believe, likely scenario.
It’s very feasible that their owners will not want to jump into luxury tax (or at least will want to pay as little of it as possible), and it’s equally feasible that they’ll be pushed up against it in order to replace or re-sign Turkoglu. Saving $2M could be the difference between having Turkoglu and having to go find a lesser player on the open market. Alternatively, it could mean the difference between adding a Shane Battier or Ron Artest instead of a Mike Pietrus. $2M is the salary difference between Devin Harris and Leandro Barbosa. Both of those instances are real differences in production, not just some “end of the bench” Belinelli type to earn some money to look good in his suit. $2M may not buy you the world, but it’ll let you buy a slightly nicer world.
Furthermore, if you’re continually adding marginally more effective players at much higher cost using the “well, $2M only gets me some crappy end of the bench player, so I’d rather have the marginally more effective player at the higher cost,” you’re going to end up with a mediocre, slightly overpaid team, which causes the owner to start considering luxury tax with a less talented roster.
I’m not advocating dumping a contributor for pure cap space on the assumption that it’d be used to sign some better free agent, I’m advocating taking a small talent hit with the effort of replacing or re-signing one of your top contributors that is known to be leaving.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jun 15, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Where did I say anything about "saving $2M-$3M by dropping from Gortat to Turiaf will allow Orlando to bring in a $2M player to replace production"? I didn’t, you either made that up or are incorrectly interpreting what I said.
This is false. It is not a dichotomy. I neither claimed that you said that the savings would allow them to add a $2M player, nor did I incorrectly interpret what you wrote. Those are not the sum of possibilities.
Saving $2 mil a year on its own is unlikely to bring you a player who can make up that much (if any) production differential as $2mil is usually a near end of the bench player and the quality of those guys tend to have next to no bearing on overall team quality.
Fine, I politely disagree and refer you to my above suggestions of Harris vs. Barbosa and Battier vs. Pietrus as real instances of similar players that I would MUCH rather have that I would be able to acquire with an extra $2M. I’ll even throw in Iguodala over Maggette as the upper bound.
Saving $2M in one deal does not occur in a vacuum, especially when it occurs in a recession.
Besides, the entire point is moot because Gortat can’t really be traded.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jun 15, 2009 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Remember that time . . .
Reduce your carbon footprint, commit suicide.
by bloodsweatndonuts on Jun 15, 2009 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions
1. Hedo Turkoglu & Marcin Gortat are going to test free agency and get significant raises
2. Orlando has too much tied up in Rashard Lewis ($18M in ‘09-’10) and others to make a significant efforts to keep the two without dumping salary.
Well, technically they could re-sign everybody and add another player at the MLE. There is no rule to keep them from doing so. The thing that it seems like you are implying is that they won’t want to go into the luxury tax to keep this team together. That could very well be the case, but after a trip to the finals there isn’t really a better time for a franchise to suck it up and pay some tax to see if you can win a title.
I haven’t read anything about whether or not the Magic ownership has said anything one way or another, but I’ve been kind of busy lately so maybe I missed it. Anybody have any real insight as to whether or not the Magic will be willing to venture into the luxury tax for a year or two while they think they might win it all?
Thing 2
I lost the article,
but the owner said that he wouldn’t mind to pay the tax if it means keeping the championship caliber team together. I’ll try to find it. For now though, it’s time to play some Prototype.
by ZaMzAm FiRe on Jun 15, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions
As rebounding at the 4 is their biggest problem, I don’t see any trade happening with the Magic that doesn’t involve Randolph or Wright. I don’t think I would trade either of those guys for what the Magic would be willing to send us, given that we suck at rebounding too.
Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!
given that we suck at rebounding
That’s a reason not to trade Randolph, but that’s not a reason to keep Wright, who’s an average rebounder. Especially if we’re adding Gortat (a good rebounder).
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jun 15, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Although, the salary issues and S&T considerations would not be easy to deal with.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jun 15, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions
you wouldnt trade wright for Gortat?
It wouldnt be a bad move to try getting a little more tough inside. We wouldnt really give up any rebounding and we dont need to rely on Wright to score
by warriorsvictim on Jun 15, 2009 12:32 PM PDT reply actions
I'm curious...
Would anybody be opposed to offering Gortat the MLE? I know it’s not really a position of need, but for a team with few trade assets it couldn’t hurt to get another solid big man at a good price. It would make it a lot easier to include Turiaf or Wright in a deal involving one of the big contracts.
My guess is that the Magic would match, but I’m not sure what they are thinking in terms of the luxury tax, and I guess you could make the case that back-up center is not the best place to spend your money when you have Howard as your starter and other areas of need on the team.
Thing 2
i’d do it. it’d be sad to deal turiaf, but he’s a very wanted commodity around the league (ask a blazers fan) and i bet we could get great value for him. of course, i’d prefer to deal wright and move turiaf to the 4, but it would come down to what packages would be available to us and if turiaf fetches a substantially better deal, it’d be him that got dealt.
i would miss ronny…
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
Yeah...
i would miss ronny…
Me too. This is the first time in a while that I actually like all of our bigs. Andris, Randolph, Turiaf and Wright are all guys I enjoy watching for different reasons. I would still trade any of them under the right circumstances though, and with Turiaf having good value at the moment I wouldn’t mind shipping him off so long as we could replace him with another good big somehow.
I don’t think there is much chance we land Gortat, But I’d at least make him an offer.
Thing 2
+1
Except the Gorat bit. I’d want to see how it fit into the totality of all the offseason moves, which we won’t be able to know until everything is complete. Gorat in a vacuum makes no sense. . . since he’d be dead in about 180 seconds.
Reduce your carbon footprint, commit suicide.
by bloodsweatndonuts on Jun 15, 2009 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Gorat in a vacuum makes no sense. . . since he’d be dead in about 180 seconds.
LIES!!!!
http://www.newscientist.com/blog/space/2008/06/how-long-can-you-survive-in-vacuum-of.html
Although, a man of Gortat’s size and weight might make it 180… so maybe not lies.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jun 16, 2009 6:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Remember, it’s not the offer that can get matched. It’s the accepted offer. My guess is that he wouldn’t sign an MLE offer sheet, making matching moot. My guess is that his agent will make it known to him that in a year all the losers in the Lebron sweepstakes will be throwing money at anyone with at least 7 fingers who can tie at least one of his own shoes.
do you see him signing a one year deal or does he have a player option for next season?
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
He does not have an option. I could see him signing a one year deal as the possibility of long term deals for him get better in a year. It could cost him a year at MLE price, but it could net him significantly more than that.
as someone who actually understands the CBA, do you know what his QO from orlando would be? would it be about his current salary or could he get a decent raise that way? i’m just trying to figure out if he takes the qualifying offer to lose the “restricted” tag or if he’d just test the free agent waters and lose the tag after a one year deal. the benefits of him being a UFA in 2010 as opposed to an RFA this year would be pretty hefty.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
The qualifying offer is low. I think it’s 125% of his last year’s salary which is peanuts given he was making the minimum. He’s not going to get a big raise out of the QO.
I think the smart move for Orlando, if they can’t get him to agree on a longer term deal now, would be to offer him a one year deal at more money than the QO though as this makes him an easier piece to work with in a year. The BYC rules apply to big raises. They also apply in sign-and-trades. If they keep him at a very low dollar amount this year, he’s difficult to sign-and-trade in a year since he’d instantly be BYC. By giving him a raise this year without tying them down long term, some or all of the difficulties in BYC dealings would be taken away, meaning they’d have some possibility of getting something out of him in a year if he wasn’t going to stay with them.
Remember, it’s not the offer that can get matched. It’s the accepted offer.
For sure. I’m not assuming he’d be interested, but I’d at least make the offer. There is no reason to think we’d be the only one making that type of offer, there is no reason to think the Magic wouldn’t match even if he decided to come here, and as you just pointed out we can’t even be sure he is looking for a long term contract.
I do think that it’s more likely that he signs a multi-year deal, just because players/agents tend to take the sure money, but you make a reasonable case for taking a shorter deal so he can get out from under being restricted to the MLE.
Thing 2
If he's signing a 1 year offer in the hopes that he waits till next year
I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t go Josh Childress on the NBA, play a year in Europe with the hopes of putting up gaudy numbers and coming back. A European team would also likely be able to pay him more.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jun 15, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions
True...
that could happen. Europe could be a very appealing destination for him.
I don’t think it would change his status in the NBA though. If he did ever want to come back, I think the Magic would still have his rights and he’d still have the same contract limitations. I could be wrong about that though.
Thing 2
If he goes to Europe, his rights as RFA are still retained by Orlando. It’s as if time stops and he goes off into some strange warp dimension where the governments supply people with health insurance and people care about soccer.
that warp zone is like my apartment, only instead of having health insurance and people who care about soccer, i don’t have health insurance and complain about how i can’t watch soccer on tv because no one cares about it (except now that the confederations cup is on! woo, once a year soccer viewing that isn’t the champions league!)
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
Alston?NO[gets emotional wayy to easily]
Turk?if you watched him in the finals,hes REALLY STUBBORN,so no.we already have jack
Gortat?yes would be nice
Battie?Maybe for 1-2m a year and if we get rid of davidson
We USED to Believe...
WE DEMAND IMPROVEMENT!
by RunNdGun on Jun 15, 2009 2:04 PM PDT reply actions
if we can SOMEHOW get hedo
id be hella happy….not that i know how we can get him without losing andris/ellis/randolph
but if we could…
ellis
jackson
hedo
randolph
andris
now that would be a nice starting 5!
You know I spit technique to the freshest freak
Gimme a call you will see results in just a week
With the soul of a LOST HAWK
Is there a heaven for a Rap Cat, let's talk
i dont like jackson and hedo together
both of them like to have the ball in their hands too much, but i like the idea of hedo and beans running the pick and roll.
are u kidding me?
HEDO?
We have enough overpaid players on our roster that demand the ball, jamal, maggs, jack, monta…etc
Hedo had an amazing season and even more amazing playoffs, but I dont know if he is what we need right now. Not to mention, if we sign him, when does Anthony Randolph get to play?
Hedo is a good player but..
He takes the worst shots ever. He steps back and fades away for no reason. He will not help this team. The only guy I want from Orlando this offseason is Gortat. He is a more than capable center for us.
and jackson doesn't
i say trade jackson for hedo. maybe hedo and alston
Cause Havoc. Bring Nash in and 120 point games will be very expected
The only player I'd really want from Orlando is Rashard Lewis.
Well other than Dwight. Rashard would be a nice fit at SF for us. But his contract is wack. So while Orlando has some great players that would fit well with our team, I’m really not down for any of them, either due to price, or becasue we don’t need anyone to fill that role.
His defense is questionable too
We be doin' it CROOKLYN style!!!!!
by LighTz707OuT on Jun 16, 2009 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions
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