Hollinger on the Draft-Lawson at the top of the class, DeRozan not so much

Hollinger seems to have had some pretty mixed results projecting PERs over the last 5 years. In addition to supporting the confusion jae has expressed repeatedly about why Flynn and others are projected to go much higher than Lawson, here are some things I found interesting.

-As Hollinger points out, his method has been fairly accurate in pointing out who to AVOID in past drafts (we're looking at you Ike Diogu and P.O'B)
-I feel a little better about Tyreke Evans now....but Evans graded out much higher as a wing than a PG (still a good "fit" next to Monta?)
-Danny Green? Hmm... and 4 Tarheels in the top 20?
-DeRozan is one of the last highly touted prospects I would've expected to come out as the big loser, and I actually thought Harden would also do much better.
-Curry got a better rating as a wing than at PG, but his projected per at PG was still very good.
-Daye at #4? I have a hard time seeing him being a future NBA starter

Thoughts?

over 2 years ago sam23 4 comments 0 recs |

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I posted the same thing a few hours ago but removed it because it can only be viewed by insider subscribers.

by Dungeness Crab Dribble on Jun 18, 2009 7:56 PM PDT reply actions

Hollinger had Randolph at the low, low end of his projections, so he’s not perfect on who to avoid either. His system isn’t perfect. It appears to be a bit better than the ‘experts’ who pick, but still misses on more than a few.

by jae on Jun 18, 2009 9:45 PM PDT reply actions

Yeah.

Much like in baseball, statistically oriented approaches can miss out on the ‘toolsy, projectable’ sort, of which Randolph is a prime basketball example.

I don’t think he was able to watch much of Randolph in college, which partly accounts for his low regard. When you saw his LSU team at any length, two things were immediate clear: Randolph’s frightening ability, and what was probably the worse coached division one team. As I said before, I’m not sure Randolph ever got any real coaching until he got to the NBA: LSU played pick-up, whatever goes basketball. When you have that kind of situation, especially with a player who clearly doesn’t know his limits, the stats do not predict much.

Prospective parent of new pick, Zack Wheeler. Projectable Righty stolen from the braves. Of course, I stalk my son's myspace: http://www.myspace.com/zackwheelerbaseball

"Obviously I’m not doing things like going toe-to-toe with a ninja. Find me a ninja, for one."--Brian Wilson

by haverecords on Jun 19, 2009 3:43 AM PDT up reply actions