Where have all the Euro’s gone?

Regardless of whether they are white, tan, or black the number of quality European players taken in the first round during recent years is declining: 2003 – 8, 2004 and 2006 – 6, and last year only four went in the first round. And with Rubio certainly the only one picked in this year’s lottery, and only two others even potentially slated for late first round (Casspi, Israel & Claver, Spain), 2009 would be among the lowest in over a decade. Why?

While most eyes are on Rubio and where he might get picked in the first round, there are several reasons why so few international players, and Europeans in particular, are likely to be selected by NBA GMs this week. This is all the more ironic as US franchises have spent more on scouting, vetting, and evaluating overseas talent than ever before.

The simplest explanations would be that there is a dearth of talent at the moment, and that recent busts like the Pistons’ Darko Milicic (who was picked in front of Melo, Dwade, and Bosh) have NBA clubs reticent to pull the trigger.

via 24sec.net

On the other hand, the technological advantages of travel and communication make it much easier for NBA scouts to find talent overseas, and to vet players more closely, which one would think would increase the number of talented international players entering the NBA. But a closer examination shows that while all this sounds logical, the case more likely is that ironically there is less talent available to NBA GMs due to the INCREASED talent overall.

Both European and Chinese professional basketball leagues are near or at the highest levels of talent and fan support they’ve ever enjoyed, partially due to the acclaim their players have achieved in the US but also because foreign franchises are now investing more in their own players, facilities, and marketing of their teams. Taking a page from international football, overseas basketball franchises are locking up their top players with lucrative, long-term contracts.

Rubio’s case is instructive, though hardly unique. While he is earning only $97K per season, his contract with DKV Jovenhut has a $6.6m buyout clause. Rubio is negotiating with his own club through an arbitrator to have the buyout terms reduced, just one reason some GMs may be having second thoughts about using a high pick on him – they cannot be sure how or when that case will be resolved. NBA clubs are not able to contribute heavily to the buyout and hence are helpless to intervene. Nearly all overseas NBA-quality prospects have large buyout clauses, which is the trade-off for the long term security of the contract. Milo Teodosi, of Greece, recently signed a 5-year contract that essentially decreased his chances to make it to the NBA. In essence, the overseas agents are using the NBA as leverage to get their clients better terms while the overseas franchises are securing their homegrown talent.

And there are some international players, like Fran Vazqueuz, who are drafted by an NBA club (Magic) but choose to stay in their home country. There is talent overseas, but in many cases they are choosing financial security and comfort over the lure of the association. Interestingly enough, only one international player selected in the first round since 2002 (who had not already played in the US) made the NBA All Star team, while 14 of 171 US players drafted in the same round did so. Does this mean the overseas players are not as talented, or is that a function of the All Star process? Probably a bit of both. (By the way, you know of course who he was don’t you?)

GSW’s own track record drafting international players is as hit and miss as any, but maybe as good as any, based upon the percentage of players who stick more than a season or two in the league:

2007, Marco Belinelli, Italy

2006, Kosta Perovic, Serbia

2004, Andris Biedrins, Latvia

2003, Mickael Pietrus, France

1992, Predrag Danilovic, Partizan

1981, Yasutaka Okayama, Japan

Certainly top players will continue to come, and we’ve seen the reverse now with Americans like Brandon Jennings choosing to go to Europe to play. As the difference in financial incentives and risk continue to flatten more between the NBA and the international leagues, we may find that more marginal US players gravitate to overseas basketball leagues while relatively fewer international players migrate to the NBA in the near future.

Sources: NBA.com, Draftexpress, Sac Bee, basketballreference.com. NYT, SFGATE.com