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The Warriors and the PER Triple Crown


Warning: This post will be nerdy. It will reference empirical fact, yet mix it with basketball hokum. Please don't take it that seriously.

In a league where you're only as good as your best three guys, it makes sense that the NBA's elite teams often have featured three guys capable of posting a plus 20 Player Efficiency Rating. San Antonio (Manu, Timmy, Tony), and L.A. (Kobe, Pau, Andrew) have done it, and the other big boys are damned close (Disney World, Boston). The Cavs are a notable exception, but they compensate by having an otherwordly PER machine in LBJ.

Well I got news for ya: The Dubs can make a run at the hallowed PER triple crown. Monta has gotten to the 19 mark and so has Biedrins. These two are just entering their respective primes, and I believe that at least one if not both of these overly maligned players can reach PER glory by season's end. 

Star-divide

I personally think the MoPed incident stirred an overreaction from many Dubs fans. Please, just take a deep breath and remember that the handchecking rules were changed a few years back. No one can stay in front of Monta (least of all, Monta, but that's a different matter). I hear constant hand-wringing about Ellis not being a "true point guard." I'm sorry, did I miss something? Have I enterd a time warp where players still sport tighty-whitey-length shorts, and the spectre of cocaine hangs over the entire league? A bizarro world where fans and coaches alike can chain smoke cigs court side? We're in an era of smallish effective score-first PGs (Brooks, Nelson, Parker, Terry, Mo-Will, Sessions, etc.). If Ellis can get 25 pts, on 50% shooting next year, then all the power to him. But I digress...

So where could that extra plus 20 PER come from? I'm hoping (we're all hoping) Randolph. AR nabbed an impressive 16.94 rating in his rookie year, and could easily punch over the 20 mark. If not AR, then perhaps the oft-criticized Brandan Wright. BW notched a 18.77 last year and should improve once the Warriors move his coffin bed to the practice facility (He looks like Dracula, it's a lame joke I know...also, he looks like Devin Harris stretched from all angels, okay, sorry, moving on). Wright, who has earned a bust label from some-despite looking like a more athletic LaMarcus Aldridge in limited playing time-could be our unsung path to the vaunted PER trifecta.

The overarching point of this post isn't really about PER. It's that this team is fine. Fine enough to not blow up for some ersatz superstar savior (I'm looking at you, MicroSTATure). Our historical flaw has been impatience. We never see our rebuilding through to a logical conclusion. Right now, I'm looking at a team brimming with young talent, fully capable of a playoff run. Better defense is needed, but that usually comes with age and an actual team defense philosophy. We built for the future. The only thing standing in the way of future success is myopic meddling.

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

4 recs  |  Comment 17 comments

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by i love sports101 on Jun 30, 2009 7:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I believe...

…Biedrins topped 20 last year, didn’t he? I thought he was something like 21.

by Zack Vank on Jun 30, 2009 11:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Biedrins topped 20, but later dipped

Coming back from the injury sunk his PER, sadly

ES

by Free Zarko on Jul 1, 2009 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

How many "game changers" are there?

3 – LBJ, Wade, Paul

Other than that everybody else was below 25 (OK, Howard was at 25.44).

And wait, none of those guys won a championship (neither did Howard). Maybe it’s not as easy as “hope you get one of the 3 best players in a generation.” Maybe you actually need to build a team of good players… what a novel idea for a team sport.

You have been DFiBrillated.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Jul 1, 2009 6:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK then closer to 25 than 20

Still the same point. 20 isn’t the magic PER we need to hit.

by JSML on Jul 1, 2009 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nothing is needed persay

But if 3 guys playing 70 plus games got over the 20 mark, I’d bet anything we’d be in the playoffs.

ES

by Free Zarko on Jul 1, 2009 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree

But perhaps not at the level of the Lakers, Spurs, Cavs as the article suggests.

by JSML on Jul 2, 2009 12:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure

If those three were each at 20 with duplicated contributions, we wouldn’t be anywhere near it. But if Monta hits 23, Biedrins hits 21, and AR hits 21, we’re going to be a very, very good team. Especially with contributors like Jax, Maggette, Turiaf, Buike, and Morrow to support them. And those three guys are all years younger than Kobe, LeBron, and their counterparts.

Is it a perfect science? Absolutely not. Is it a worthwhile contribution to the “Wait, we don’t really suck as bad as people make it seem?” Absolutely.

You have been DFiBrillated.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Jul 2, 2009 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dubs fan, I couldn't agree more

That was the point of my post. It’s not about PER per say, just pointing out that we don’t suck nearly as hard as is assumed out where I live in NYC

ES

by Free Zarko on Jul 2, 2009 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've been seeing a lot of low-aiming predictions

I seriously fail to see how the Warriors win only 8 more games if the roster comes back. I think the 7th or 8th seed is easily within reach considering how most players improve rapidly from 23-27 (the meat of our roster seems to be in that scope).

ES

by Free Zarko on Jul 1, 2009 9:23 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

doesnt matter what the PER is

we basically have a ceiling with the current roster. We havent hit it yet, but we are close and we need to add/subtract players to get over this hump.

I love watching our current team play, but I am ready to win something.

by warriorsvictim on Jul 1, 2009 11:35 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

asdf

I kinda sorta don’t like this comparison, mostly because when you look at all the teams you rattled off they all have one glaring strength over the Dubs and that’s one of their superstars being a game changing defender. The Dubs have no one like that, they say defense is contagious and when your super star plays staunch defense the other players are likely to follow and we just don’t have that type of presence on our team.

However with that being said, I think that maybe not this year but in the near future Randolph can be that guy for us. You could see it a little last year every once in a while, Randolph would be giving everything he had on defense, basically giving up his body trying to prevent the other team from scoring and you could see the Dubs defense lift up around him.

AR= the future, and it’s coming very soon.

by JRich4MVP on Jul 2, 2009 9:34 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I would agree

AR could potentially (there’s that word again) guard 5 positions. This post is not claiming we’re at that elite level, just closer to it than many think. Plus, I see a lot of Bieds/Monta Bashing, which I think is quite premature at this point in their careers, but is in keeping with the tradition of the Dubs chucking young talent overboard.

ES

by Free Zarko on Jul 2, 2009 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Zarko.....where have you been all my life........

……..I feel exactly the same as expressed in your post and felt that NOT many here would agree……..ok maybe we will not take the whole thing with this group but it would be great watching them get better every year and move further into the playoffs(when healthy)….and adding pieces every year rather than the typical 2 steps forward with 3 steps backwards that this organization has always done……our depth is as impressive as the young players and yes I feel thay BW will surprise everyone when/if he has the chance……I hate to even give up Marco after seeing what he showed us this last season…..but all in all we do have a lot guards now…..

by Only In Fairfax on Jul 3, 2009 5:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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