Try to S & T for Lee? Do the W's even have a shot?

Obviously, David Lee is the top FA out there and would be an excellent fit with the Warriors. Just ask Bucher:

16. David Lee, PF/C, Knicks (RFA)

His game: Energy and defense without needing plays called for him. Will sacrifice his body on screens and charges. Undersized but athletic, hard-nosed and low-maintenance. Rebound and loose-ball fiend. Good hands and decent with putbacks and finishing around the rim off pick-and-roll. Not much of a threat beyond 15 feet or on post-ups. Willing help defender, but not a shot-blocker.

Right system: Up-tempo is ideal because he'll outrun most bigs in transition. Need at least three scorers, ideally four, so he has room and reason to chase down rebounds and putbacks. Can't play off an offensive post threat because he doesn't have the jumper to space the floor. Mobile enough to show on the guard in pick-and-roll defense and get back to a rolling big.

Wrong system: A methodical half-court set with a dominant scoring center who is not a shot-blocker.

Best fits: Suns, Blazers, Jazz, Rockets, Thunder, Warriors

I'm sure nearly everyone on this site would love to have him on the W's and there has been a lot written about the possibility in the comments of several posts. The question is would we have a shot and what would we have to give up to make it happen? (warning: long post with lots of analysis)

It's pretty obvious that NY is focused primarily on shedding salary for next summer's free agent class. 

IIn order to preserve cap space, NY is unlikely to match a large contract offer for Lee and that's why he's widely seen as available despite his restricted free agent status. Of course as a FA, restricted or not, he can choose where he plays next year. As has been dicussed and proven to with depressing regularity, Golden State is not a very desirable destination for players right now ( front office uncertainty, Nellie being Nellie, etc.). However, let's pretend for the sake of optimism that Lee is a big Bucher reader and wants to play for a team he is ideally suited for and, for some unknown reason, would be willing to play here. With Portland being the only team in that group that has the room to sign him outright, and with their reported reluctance to sign him to an offer sheet, it seems a sign and trade is most likely.

Ignoring Lee's preference as to where he plays (still totally unknown other than his supposed desire to stay in NY which won't happen), let's think about who, limiting it to those 5 teams, could offer the best S & T package.

All those 5 teams can offer around or more than the $9M Lee's contract will most likely start at. If, though, all NY wants is the most expiring money they can get, Houston,  Phoenix and Utah all have the W's beat. T-Mac is a $23M expiring, Ben Wallace has a $14M and Boozer has a $12.6M expiring. Each offers an advantage that we can't match. All 3 contracts would allow Lee to sign for a starting contract of, let's say $9M and still leave room in the deal for NY to send out another bad contract. Obviously, Houston has the most to offer in that category with T-Mac.

While Wallace is pretty much done and T-Mac is a big question mark right now, Boozer is still potentially an All-Star level PF and would be the only player out of those 3 big expiring contracts that would be a significant contributor this season. Of course, NY would want nothing to do with him after his deal expires because they have their eyes set on 'Bron and Bosh in 2010.

This is where I see the one advantage that GS could offer: we can trade young, high upside players who also have expiring deals. Wright would be expendable if we got Lee since Wright already wasn't getting minutes at PF and would certainly get less if Lee was here. Belinelli is totally expendable with our glut of shooting guards.

Both Belli and BWright have one more guaranteed year and then a player option for 2010-2011. This would give NY a no-risk opportunity to assess them for one year. They could then let their contracts expire or pick up their options. Again, the one advantage the Dubs have.

Including Wright and Belli is the easy part. The hard part is what other salaries do you add to make it work. Law and Claxton can't be traded in combination with another player until 60 days after their trade to GS. There's no way Lee is still available in fifty something days so they're out. Assuming NY would only be willing to take on non-expiring salary if it was 1) a small amount and 2) young talent, that leaves 3 players the W's could add to make the numbers work: Buke, Morrow and Curry. Buke, Wright and Belli makes the numbers work (BTW I did it just using a calculator and salaries listed on Hoopshype b/c ESPN trade machine is using last year's numbers so I don't think it's accurate). But I don't think NY would want Buke's $3.6M on the books in 2010-2011, unless they see Wright and/or Belinelli as worth it (unlikely).

Curry's salary will be about $2.4M in 2010-2011 but NY obviously loves Curry and would be happy to pay it. Problem is, a package of Wright, Belli and Curry only allows us to take on $8.2M in salary, which will not get us Lee unless we structure big raises into the deal to make up for a low 1st year salary. Plus, Nellie has been pretty clear he doesn't want to give up Curry.

Morrow will make significantly less than Curry so Wright, Belinelli and Morrow definitely doesn't get us there. A package of Wright, Belinelli, Morrow AND Curry gets us there, but that's a lot of young talent to give up, plus Morrow and Curry would each still have at least one year on their deals after 2009-2010 so that might make them slightly less attractive to NY.

All in all, it seems like the only deal that NY would take from us would be Wright, Belinelli, Morrow AND Curry. I can't see Nellie wanting to do that. Let's call that deal #1.

The one other shot I see is if we did a package of Wright, Buke and Belinelli for Lee. Then, in a separate trade, sent Claxton to NY for one of their bad contracts. We could take back Jared Jeffries, who is on the books for $6.4M next year and a 2010-2011 player option he'll likely pick up for $6.9M. That would offset Buke's salary in 2010-2011 and then some. It would give them young talent they have team options with and give them a solid role player in Buke. Let's call that deal #2.

Is Lee worth all that? On the one hand, he's a double-double machine and would seem to be a perfect fit, other than he isn't the protoypical "shooting big man" that Nellie dreams about. On the other hand, losing a LOT of young talent (deal #1) or adding more salary to our already ridiculous payroll (deal#2) seem like big risks. What do you guys think?